Steve Adams | MLB Trade Rumors

White Sox Claim Ryan LaMarre

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2018 at 1:51pm CDT

The White Sox announced that they’ve claimed outfielder Ryan LaMarre off waivers from the Twins. LaMarre was designated for assignment by Minnesota last week when Jorge Polanco was reinstated from his suspension. The ChiSox already had two open spots on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move isn’t required. The White Sox didn’t announce that LaMarre is going to Triple-A (though he does have minor league options remaining), so it seems he’ll join their active roster.

LaMarre, 30, batted .263/.321/.313 through 109 plate appearances as a Twin before his DFA, logging plenty of time in center field with Byron Buxton struggling to stay healthy in 2018. Though his average and OBP were respectable, LaMarre also struck out in 30.3 percent clip of his big league plate appearances. He’s capable of playing any of the three outfield positions for the Sox and can be optioned back and forth between Charlotte and Chicago as a depth piece for the remainder of the season if the Sox hang onto him.

Mets Place Todd Frazier On DL Amid Series Of Roster Moves

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2018 at 1:38pm CDT

The Mets announced a series of roster moves today, most notably placing third baseman Todd Frazier on the disabled list due to a left rib cage strain. Additionally, the Mets recalled left-hander P.J. Conlon and right-hander Ty Kelly from Triple-A Las Vegas and optioned righty Chris Flexen to Vegas. Right-hander Jacob Rhame is also up with the team as the 26th man for today’s twin bill, and Tim Britton of The Athletic further reports that right-hander Drew Gagnon will have his contract selected tomorrow and start Tuesday night’s game.

It’s the second DL stint of the season for Frazier, 32, who previously missed nearly a month due to a hamstring strain. It’s not clear just how long he’ll miss at present, but the injury certainly won’t do any favors for Frazier’s already limited trade stock. Through 260 plate appearances on the season, Frazier is hitting .217/.300/.385 with 10 homers. As James Wagner of the New York Times points out (via Twitter), Frazier’s second trip to the DL in 2018 comes after a previous seven-year run in which he avoided the DL entirely.

Frazier has played solid defense at third base, per both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, but Frazier’s walk rate has dropped from 14.4 percent in 2017 to 10.4 percent in 2018, leading to sub-par OBP contributions despite his still-strong power output (.239 ISO). He’s in the first season of a two-year, $17MM contract with the Mets.

The 28-year-old Gagnon will be making his MLB debut when he takes the mound for the Mets on Tuesday. The longtime Brewers farmhand is in his first season with the Mets organization and has pitched to a 4.40 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 with a ground-ball rate just shy of 50 percent. Gagnon’s K/BB numbers and ground-ball tendencies are encouraging, but he’s been plagued by the long ball — perhaps not entirely surprising given the hitter-friendly nature of both the Pacific Coast League in general and his home environment.

Rays Activate Chris Archer

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2018 at 1:13pm CDT

The Rays announced this afternoon that they’ve activated right-hander Chris Archer from the disabled list. Right-hander Andrew Kittredge was optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move.

Archer, 29, has been on the shelf since June 3 due to an abdominal strain. While the injury originally wasn’t expected to result in an absence of this length, Archer’s rehab was slowed along the way as the Rays exercised some caution in easing him back into the mix. He’ll rejoin a Rays staff that features Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi in traditional starting roles, plus, of course, several relievers working in more unconventional hybrid roles (e.g. Ryne Stanek, Ryan Yarbrough).

Through 76 1/3 innings this season, Archer is sitting on a 4.24 ERA with 9.0 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 with a 43.7 percent ground-ball rate. While those numbers don’t immediately stand out, Archer’s overall line is still being dragged down by a slow start to the season. However, after posting a near-8.00 ERA through his first four outings, Archer largely rounded into form, tossing 55 2/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball over his next nine outings before landing on the disabled list.

As ever, Archer’s name figures to be prominently featured on the rumor mill so long as he’s healthy and reasonably effective moving forward — and perhaps more than ever before if he’s able to continue where he left off in terms of performance prior to his DL stint. Archer is on one of the game’s friendlier pitching contracts, as he’s controlled through 2021 at a combined total of $30.29MM (including the remaining $2.79MM on this season’s $6.25MM salary). That’s a reasonable enough price as it is, but the value is enhanced further by the fact that the final two seasons of control come in the form of club options, granting the Rays or any acquiring a team a means of escaping the deal should Archer sustain any type of severe injury.

It’s not clear just how seriously the Rays will entertain the idea of trading Archer, though at 16 games back in the AL East and 11 games out of a Wild Card spot (despite a perhaps surprisingly solid 45-44 record on the season), it stands to reason that they’ll be selling off at least some pieces. Wilson Ramos and Eovaldi are widely expected to be dealt over the next few weeks, while Alex Colome and Denard Span were already traded more than a month ago. Several other Tampa Bay veterans figure to be on the block between now and the end of trading season, though Archer would likely require the greatest haul of any player the Rays will conceivably market to other clubs.

AL East Rumors: Happ, Phillips, Rays, Yankees

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2018 at 11:49am CDT

The Cubs “may have interest” in Blue Jays lefty J.A. Happ, per Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun (Twitter link). Chicago’s rotation has a pair of notable question marks, as it’s not yet clear when Yu Darvish will be able to return to the mix, while Tyler Chatwood’s season-long struggles to throw strikes have been a well-documented issue. Happ has been most prominently linked to the Yankees and the Mariners thus far, though as a pending free agent on a clear non-contender, he figures to draw interest from a large number of clubs as the non-waiver deadline approaches. Happ’s two most recent starts haven’t been good ones, though as long as there’s no medical reason for the pair of ugly outings, that’s not likely to impact his trade value much, if at all.

Manny Machado Trade Rumors: Friday

By Steve Adams | July 6, 2018 at 5:45pm CDT

5:45pm: If the O’s are to strike an early deal involving Machado, it seems they may not be able to do so with the Phillies. Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, via Twitter, the Philadelphia organization has “moved on from Machado for now, as [the] Orioles’ asking price is too high.” Of course, a change of heart on either side could take place at any moment, so there’s no reason to think the match is off the table at this early stage of the summer trade period.

12:38pm: Though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported that trade talks surrounding Manny Machado have “accelerated” this week, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that teams still aren’t offering anything close to what the Orioles are hoping to obtain for Machado. That sounds like a similar situation to the one Baltimore encountered in the offseason, when its front office sought a pair of MLB-ready rotation pieces in exchange for the final year of Machado’s contract but could not find a taker at that exorbitant price tag.

Controllable pitching has reportedly been among the Orioles’ top priorities once again, and they’re also said to be interested in landing some type of replacement for Machado in the infield. But, with Machado set to hit free agency at season’s end, extracting multiple MLB-ready assets from a rival club is a difficult, if not borderline unrealistic goal for the Orioles.

As Crasnick notes, the rental market, in general, has proven less fruitful for sellers in recent seasons, and talented as Machado may be, he’ll be a free agent at season’s end. While many fans have wishfully speculated about negotiating windows and extension scenarios that could prevent Machado from reaching the market, the reality is that he’s going to explore free agency in search of a record-setting contract this winter.

To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi wrote yesterday that the Phillies would be reluctant to part with either top prospect Sixto Sanchez or big league right-hander Zach Eflin in order to acquire Machado. While Eflin’s success in the Majors is limited — he struggled greatly in 2017 — he’s looked legitimately impressive through 63 2/3 frames so far in 2018. In 11 starts, Eflin has a 2.97 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9 and a 37.1 percent ground-ball rate. His 2.90 FIP helps to support that ERA, and he’s sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate (10.8 percent) and average fastball velocity (94.2 mph). Eflin has moved away from his two-seamer/sinker in favor of a vast increase in four-seam fastballs and sliders, and the results, to this point, have been outstanding.

Morosi also discusses potential reluctance on Atlanta’s behalf, though it’s not clear what prompts the specific scenarios he explores; the Braves haven’t been rumored to have significant interest in Machado — to the contrary, they’re rumored to have limited funds available — and Morosi’s specification of Ian Anderson and Max Fried appears to be a purely speculative package which one source deemed too rich. (For that matter, it’s unclear why the column focuses solely on the NL East.) That shouldn’t come as any real surprise, given that the O’s weren’t able to acquire to arms of that caliber for a full season of Machado this past offseason and are now marketing just two to three months of his talents.

Meanwhile, Fancred’s Jon Heyman writes that the Brewers have “checked in” on Machado, largely echoing Rosenthal’s previous assessment that the Brew Crew has done “due diligence” on Machado but isn’t likely to meet the Orioles’ asking price. That meshes with today’s report from Heyman, who cites a person “with Brewers ties” in stating that the Brewers check in on virtually every player available (as one would expect from contending clubs).

Perhaps more interestingly, Eno Sarris of The Athletic recently endeavored to see just what exactly can be made of the metrics that suggest Machado’s defense at shortstop to be so unsightly (subscription link). In an excellent exploration of Machado’s glovework, Sarris notes that Machado’s season at shortstop rates among the worst ever recorded by measure of Ultimate Zone Rating. However, UZR doesn’t include plays on which a defender is shifted to the opposite side of second base. Beyond that, 80 percent of the balls hit to Machado this season have been routine plays that are made 90 to 100 percent of the time, and Machado, accordingly has converted about 97 percent of those plays.

Subtracting the given outs and the shift plays, Sarris concludes that data suggesting Machado has been a historically bad defender is based on a matter of roughly 56 plays — and that small of a sample may not be a fair means of judging a player who is re-acclimating himself to a position he hasn’t played this frequently in more than a half-decade. Of course, there’s little evidence to suggest that Machado has been an especially good (or even average) shortstop, either, but the extent of his deficiencies remains difficult to accurately evaluate.

Rays Sign No. 31 Pick Shane McClanahan

By Steve Adams | July 6, 2018 at 10:29am CDT

10:29am: McClanahan himself announced (on Twitter) that he has indeed signed with the Rays.

10:20am: The Rays and first-round pick Shane McClanahan have finalized a late deal with roughly six hours to go until the deadline for draft picks to sign, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (via Twitter). McClanahan, a left-hander out of the Unversity of South Florida, will receive a $2,230,100 signing bonus that comes in ever so slightly north of his $2,224,400 slot value at No. 31 overall. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was the first to report that, after appearing to be at a potential impasse, the two sides were finally moving toward an agreement (Twitter link).

In securing a deal with McClanahan, the Rays have added arguably the top two left-handed arms in the entire 2018 draft class. No. 16 overall pick Matthew Liberatore was ranked among the top six prospects in the draft per each of Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Fangraphs, and McClanahan ranked as high as No. 8 at BA, No. 14 at MLB.com and No. 15 at ESPN.

McClanahan, 21, was a redshirt sophomore and as such had some degree of leverage over his situation, as he could’ve returned to USF for his junior season. Instead, he’ll bring a fastball that reaches triple digits and a potential plus changeup to the Rays’ farm system as he begins his pro career. The biggest concerns with McClanahan stem from a poor finish to his collegiate season in addition to the possibility that his slight frame and below-average control could force him into the bullpen at some point. However, a triple-digit lefty with the potential for a strong changeup makes for a plenty intriguing bullpen piece, and if he can indeed pan out as a starter, then the Rays may have gotten a pair of bargains with their top two picks in the ’18 draft.

Diamondbacks’ First-Round Pick Matt McLain Will Not Sign

By Steve Adams | July 6, 2018 at 10:06am CDT

First-round pick Matt McLain has informed the Diamondbacks that he will attend UCLA rather than sign with them, reports Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). The D-backs offered McLain the full slot value of $2,636,400 for the No. 25 overall selection, according to Heyman, but it appears he’ll forgo that considerable sum to play collegiate ball.

McLain, a high school infielder out of California, went considerably higher than most pre-draft rankings had forecast. None of Baseball America, Fangraphs, ESPN or MLB.com ranked him inside the Top 50 players in the draft class, though he was generally slotted into the 50 to 70 range.

Reports on McLain agree that he was one of the most polished high school bats in the draft, though there were concerns about his size (5’10”, 175 pounds), lack of plus speed and the potential that he’d need to move off of shortstop. Reports from both MLB.com and ESPN noted that his strongest advocates likened him to Alex Bregman, and certainly the Diamondbacks appear to have been among those teams most bullish on him, based on the aggressive selection in the first round.

Because McLain won’t sign, the D-backs will lose that $2,636,400 from their bonus pool. They will, however, be awarded a compensatory selection at No. 26 overall in 2019. That won’t do their lackluster farm system any immediate favors, but it’ll give the D-backs more opportunity to be creative in next year’s draft. They’re now the second NL West team who’ve been spurned by their top pick; right-hander J.T. Ginn announced last night that he would attend Mississippi State rather than sign with the Dodgers.

Technically, McLain has until 5pm ET to change his mind at the eleventh hour, though that outcome seems decidedly unlikely based on Heyman’s report.

Reds Select Dilson Herrera

By Steve Adams | July 6, 2018 at 9:23am CDT

The Reds announced Friday that they’ve selected the contract of infielder Dilson Herrera from Triple-A Louisville. It’ll mark not only the Reds debut for the 24-year-old, but his first MLB action since a 2015 trial run with the Mets. Left-hander Cody Reed was optioned to Louisville in a corresponding move.

Herrera came to the Reds alongside left-hander Max Wotell (who was released yesterday) in the 2016 trade that sent Jay Bruce to the Mets. While Herrera was once viewed as a premium prospect, shoulder troubles have slowed his development in recent years — to the point where Herrera actually went unclaimed on waivers last year and was outrighted off Cincinnati’s 40-man roster.

So far in 2018, however, Herrera has made great strides in rebuilding his stock. He opened the season at Class-A Advanced as he eased his way back into things following 2017 shoulder surgery but quickly proved ready for a greater challenge, hitting .298/.359/.429 through 21 games in the Florida State League. The Reds then bumped Herrera back up to Triple-A, where he’s batted .297/.367/.465 with seven homers and 10 doubles through 208 plate appearances.

It’s been a long road back to the Majors for Herrera, and while there’s no immediate opening for him to receive everyday at-bats in Cincinnati with Scooter Gennett at second base and Eugenio Suarez at third base, that could change in the coming weeks. Gennett, after all, is a potential trade candidate given that he has just a season and a half remaining until reaching free agency. Herrera could also simply function as a bench piece, spelling both Gennett and Suarez occasionally while serving as a pinch-hitting option late in games. Whatever his role, Herrera will at the very least deepen the Cincinnati bench for the time being as he hopes to play is way into more prominent standing with the organization down the road.

Yankees, Others Reportedly Considering Moustakas As First Base Option

By Steve Adams | July 6, 2018 at 8:57am CDT

Multiple teams, including the Yankees, have at least considered the notion of trading for Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas and shifting him across the diamond to first base, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. It’s worth noting that there’s no indication from the report that the Yankees’ interest is especially serious or extends anywhere beyond internal discussions at this point.

Moustakas, 29, stands out as one of the more obvious trade candidates in the league, given his standing as an impending free agent who is playing on an affordable contract (one year, $6.5MM) with a rebuilding Royals club that has already begun to trade away pieces (Kelvin Herrera, Jon Jay). He’s hitting .258/.312/.478 with 16 homers to this point in the 2018 season.

Of course, it should be asked just how much of an upgrade Moustakas would even represent for the Yankees. Despite Greg Bird’s woeful .200 average, his .306 on-base percentage only narrowly trails Moustakas’ .312 mark. Bird walks at a substantially higher clip than Moustakas and has also been more prone to getting hit by pitches in recent seasons, though he’s also much more strikeout-prone (27.3 percent to Moustakas’ 14.9 percent). Bird has also hit for slightly more power, sporting a .219 isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) to Moustakas’ .214.

There’s certainly an argument that moving Moustakas from the spacious Kauffman Stadium to Yankee Stadium and its notoriously short right-field porch would significantly boost his home run output. However, Moustakas’ lack of experience at first base, where he’s started just twice in his career, would likely result in a defensive downgrade over Bird.

Beyond all of that are the simple facts that Moustakas hasn’t hit much since mid-May and has been sidelined by back spasms this week. While he got off to a blistering start, Moose is hitting just .212/.292/.384 with six home runs over his past 40 games. He’s swung a bit better in his past five games, but the .299/.331/.531 slash he boasted in mid-May is now a distant memory.

Any trades the Yankees make, of course, need to be viewed through the lens of the competitive balance/luxury tax. New York was adamant about remaining under that $197MM threshold this past offseason and figures to stay on that same course on the summer trade market. The Yankees are roughly $16MM south of that line at this point, so it’s possible that they could add both Moustakas and a starting pitcher, which is rumored to be their top need. Depending on the specific rotation target, though, the Yankees may ask the opposing team to offset some of the financial load.

Alternatively, Morosi suggests a scenario in which the Yankees would ask another club to take on the remainder of Neil Walker’s $4MM contract in trades, which would have a similar effect on their bottom-line as relates to the luxury tax but would also require an improved prospect package. Indeed, the surprisingly poor play of Walker, who’d been a consistently solid offensive performer over the past eight seasons, is a large part of the reason the Yankees even need to entertain somewhat outside-the-box thoughts like adding Moustakas as a first-base option. Walker missed much of Spring Training while trying to find a deal in free agency and has never gotten on track in 2018, batting just .188/.268/.259 through his first 190 trips to the plate as a Yankee.

Ultimately, Moustakas doesn’t seem like a great fit for the Yankees or even a definitive upgrade over what Bird can bring to the table. The two have similar on-base and power numbers, with Bird representing a superior defensive option even if he’s more prone to strikeouts. Plus, if Bird’s .239 BABIP improves — which isn’t a given, considering his .251 career mark and extreme susceptibility to pull shifts in 2018 (56.9 percent pull rate) — he could even wind up with better OBP numbers than Moustakas.

Still, the fact that clubs are considering Moustakas as a first base option is nonetheless of note, as it could open the door for him to land with a club that might not have initially looked to be a fit at first glance.

Brewers Sign First-Round Pick Brice Turang

By Steve Adams | July 6, 2018 at 8:42am CDT

July 6: Turang’s bonus with the Brewers is $3,411,100, reports Callis (via Twitter). That comes in nearly $400K over the slot value.

July 5: With less than 24 hours until the signing deadline, the Brewers have inked first-round pick Brice Turang, as Turang himself announced tonight (Twitter link). Bonus terms aren’t known, though Turang’s No. 21 slot came with a $3,013,600 slot value.

The 18-year-old Turang, a high school shortstop out of California, had been committed to Louisiana State but will instead forgo college to embark on his professional career. There’d been some debate as to whether he’d sign at all, with GM David Stearns telling reporters earlier tonight that there was still “nothing to report” on Turang (Twitter link via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

Heading into the draft, Turang was ranked as the draft’s No. 14 prospect by the team at Baseball America. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen rated him 18th at Fangraphs, while ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him 24th. Turang was ranked 25th by Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com,

Scouting reports on Turang generally indicate that he wowed scouts throughout the country earlier in his high school career but didn’t impress as much last summer or in his junior season. Law calls him a potential 70 defender at shortstop with some power but questions his hit tool, while Callis and Mayo give him an above-average hit tool but below-average power. Given the discrepancy between Turang’s early work in high school and his more recent showings, opinions on him vary, but there’s no clear area where scouting reports universally indicate that he’s below average. The variance with prep players is always high anyhow, and the general feeling that Turang can stick at shortstop with plus speed creates plenty of cause for optimism even if his bat is less certain.

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