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Entries Due Tonight For Free Agent Prediction Contest

By Tim Dierkes | November 10, 2013 at 7:58pm CDT

Dust off your crystal ball again, it's time for MLBTR's third annual free agent prediction contest! Predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, with the chance to win fantastic prizes and bragging rights over your friends and the MLBTR writing team.  Last year's winner had 20 correct; can you beat that?

How To Play

  • Click here to make picks for our top 50 free agents.  For each player you can choose any of the 30 teams, as well as Retirement or Japan.
  • A Facebook account is required to participate in this contest.  You can log in with the button up top, or by using the Save Your Picks button at the bottom.
  • Feel free to leave your picks incomplete for now, as long as you save them using the button at the bottom.  The contest is open now and runs until 11:59pm central time tonight.  Make sure to have something chosen and saved for all 50 players by the deadline, or else you will not be eligible for the contest.  We suggest you save periodically after every 5-10 picks in case it times out.
  • Players on our top 50 that sign before the November 10th deadline are considered freebies, although you still need to go in and make the correct pick.  It's kind of like getting points for putting your name on the test – seems like a no-brainer, but a few people still won't do it.
  • The leaderboard will rank contestants by "batting average" on correct picks, once players start signing.  The leaderboard will show everyone's full names and Facebook profile picture.

Rules

  • Final picks must be saved by November 10th at 11:59pm central time – no exceptions.
  • MLBTR writers are not eligible for prizes.
  • One entry per person, please.
  • With regard to prizes, ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents.  If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR's discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
  • Prize winners must respond to an email message within 48 hours.

Prizes

  • $1,000 in cash prizes to be distributed among the top five finishers
  • 2014 Baseball America Handbook
  • One-year digital subscription to Baseball America
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Free Agent Profile: James Loney

By Tim Dierkes | November 7, 2013 at 1:43pm CDT

James Loney was an afterthought in the August 2012 blockbuster trade that reshaped the Red Sox and Dodgers, with Boston sending Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and cash to Los Angeles.  Loney joined various Dodgers prospects coming to the Red Sox, and soon after became a free agent for the first time.  He found just a $2MM guarantee with the bargain-shopping Rays, and made good by rediscovering his hitting stroke and playing his usual strong defense at first base.

USATSI_7366093

Strengths/Pros

Loney's line drive swing produced a .299 batting average this year, which ranked 13th in the American League.  His solid .285 career batting average is owed largely to his high contact rate.  He struck out just 12.9% of the time this year, a mark bested by only 17 AL players.  Loney's 29.8% line drive rate this year topped all of MLB.

Loney's strong batting average helped him to a .348 on-base percentage this year, topping the typical first baseman's .332 mark.  Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), which is park and league-adjusted, measures a player's total offensive value against the league average.  Loney's 118 figure this year means he was 18% better than the league average hitter.  Among free agents with at least 400 plate appearances, Loney's wRC+ ranked ninth among all free agents, beating out players such as Kendrys Morales, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Justin Morneau.  Loney has shown he can excel in baseball card numbers as well, averaging 89 RBI per year from 2008-10.

While Loney's sweet swing had him batting fifth in the Rays' lineup for much of the year, his calling card is his defense at first base.  He was a Gold Glove finalist this year, and has continually been sought out for his defense.  Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman explained Loney's positives in August to MLB.com's Bill Chastain, saying, "James has been one of the better defensive first basemen in the game for a while, and fit right in with our emphasis on defense.  But he's also demonstrated good natural hitting ability, especially against right-handers, and a contact bat that adds a different dimension to our lineup. We felt that with everything he brings to the table, he had a real chance to thrive in our environment."

Durability is another strong suit for Loney — he's never been on the disabled list in a career that has spanned eight seasons.  Aside from his tumultuous 2012, Loney has averaged 159 games per season since 2008.

Loney has youth on his side, as he doesn't turn 30 until May.  And unlike free agent first basemen Mike Napoli and Kendrys Morales, Loney did not receive a qualifying offer and is not tied to draft pick compensation.

Weaknesses/Cons

Loney is underpowered for a first baseman, a drawback for those who believe the offensive standard should be higher at his position.  He's continually posted isolated power marks around .130, while the average first baseman was at .176 this year.  The typical first baseman can hit at least 20 home runs, while Loney is generally good for 13 or so.  Loney can still add value as a hitter, but he won't appeal to teams seeking power in free agency.

Loney hit .299/.339/.390 against left-handed pitching in 166 plate appearances this year, providing hope that he will not need to be platooned.  But from 2010-12, Loney was terrible against southpaws, hitting .218/.256/.299 in 425 plate appearances.

Loney had a rough 2012 in general, hitting .249/.293/.336 in 465 plate appearances.  Overall, his play was below replacement level.  Loney has only been worth two-plus wins above replacement twice in his career, in 2011 and '13.  Otherwise, he's often been around replacement level.  Though he drove in a good amount of runs from 2008-10, Loney was still just a league average offensive player, and his defense generally doesn't make up for that.  The Rays seemingly rescued Casey Kotchman's career in 2011, but he was terrible in the season that followed.  Fair or not, some teams might connect the two first basemen and wonder if Loney can maintain success outside of Tampa Bay.

Personal

James' parents, Ann and Marion, met when both were basketball players at SUNY Oswego.  James was born in Houston and still lives in Texas with his wife Nadia and their son, born this year.  James told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick in 2008 he had a hard time deciding whether to root for the Astros or Braves as a kid.  When the Dodgers drafted Loney out of high school in the first round in 2002, most teams viewed him as a pitcher, wrote Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times in 2011.

Loney is known as a laid-back player.  "Loney is so calm that sometimes you wonder if there's a pulse," wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe in May.  "I think he's the most unaffected guy I know," Dodgers assistant GM Logan White told Hernandez in 2009.  Former teammate Randy Wolf used the word "spacey," and former manager Joe Torre agreed.  Giants first baseman Brandon Belt may own the nickname "Baby Giraffe," but Wolf used that term to describe Loney's awkwardness in the '09 article, and the first baseman's nickname was "Geoffrey" after the Toys R Us giraffe. 

Market

Loney changed agencies around the opening of free agency, jumping from CAA to The Legacy Agency.  Without knowing the details, the agency change prior to the biggest payday of Loney's career suggests dissatisfaction with his previous contract.

Several teams may be in the market for a first baseman this winter, assuming the Rays don't retain Loney.  The Brewers, Pirates, Twins, and Rockies don't have clear plans at first base, though the Rockies seem to be seeking right-handed power.  The Rangers could be an option if they move on from Mitch Moreland and find bigger bats elsewhere.  As far as starting first basemen, Loney's competition on the free agent market consists of Mike Napoli, Corey Hart, and Justin Morneau, plus maybe Kendrys Morales, Paul Konerko, Mark Reynolds, and Kevin Youkilis.

Expected Contract

I expect Loney's agent to set out with a three-year deal in mind, since he's a relatively young player and the average annual value on the contract won't be staggering.  Ultimately, I think he'll land a two-year, $16MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Profiles Tampa Bay Rays James Loney

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Boras On Ellsbury, Choo, Drew, Morales

By Tim Dierkes | November 7, 2013 at 11:17am CDT

Agent Scott Boras joined ESPN's Keith Law on his latest Behind the Dish podcast.  A few highlights:

  • Jacoby Ellsbury has "illustrated that he's a highly durable athlete," according to Boras.  The agent explained that people running into Ellsbury, which caused his two major injuries, has nothing to do with his durability.  Ellsbury is "a game-changer for a lot of franchises," as the importance of leadoff hitters has increased as power has declined.  Boras says a player of Ellsbury's caliber is typically locked up by his team and does not reach free agency.  I projected a seven-year, $150MM contract for Ellsbury in my recent free agent profile.
  • Shin-Soo Choo is a "premium defensive outfielder at the corners," says Boras, which is further proven by him being able to handle center field for a season with the Reds.  
  • Seven or eight teams could "change the dynamic of the production of their infield" with shortstop Stephen Drew, in the opinion of Boras.
  • Kendrys Morales' metrics at first base are above average, Boras told Law, adding,  "He clearly is a good first baseman."  Boras feels that pundits don't appreciate the rarity of a switch-hitter with a middle of the order bat, in this case.  Morales is "the only other one really than Cano who you can say has the ability to be a run producer in the middle of the lineup" in this free agent market, says Boras, an assessment with which the agents for Brian McCann, Mike Napoli, Carlos Beltran, Curtis Granderson, and Nelson Cruz might disagree.
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Uncategorized Jacoby Ellsbury Kendrys Morales Scott Boras Shin-Soo Choo Stephen Drew

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Non-Tender Candidates

By Tim Dierkes | November 7, 2013 at 9:29am CDT

By my count, 199 players are currently arbitration eligible and unsigned for 2014.  More than 30 of those can be considered non-tender candidates.  The deadline for teams to decide is December 2nd at 11pm central time.  Non-tendering a player makes him a free agent.  Below is my subjective list of non-tender candidates.  Please note that not all of them will actually be non-tendered.  Click here for MLBTR's projected salaries for these players, if they are tendered contracts.  Click here for our non-tender tracker, and here for our arbitration tracker.

Position Players

Tony Abreu
Darwin Barney
Daric Barton
Tyler Flowers
Sam Fuld
Mat Gamel
Chris Getz
Jesus Guzman
Brett Hayes
Paul Janish
Garrett Jones
Don Kelly
Lou Marson
Michael McKenry
Chris Nelson
Jayson Nix
Justin Ruggiano
Seth Smith
Travis Snider
Chris Stewart
Drew Stubbs 

Pitchers

Scott Atchison
John Axford
Andrew Bailey
Daniel Bard
Mitchell Boggs
Scott Elbert
Tommy Hanson
Frank Herrmann
Daniel Hudson
Kevin Jepsen
Cristhian Martinez
Fernando Rodriguez
Esmil Rogers
Joe Thatcher
Josh Tomlin
Jerome Williams
Blake Wood 

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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2014

By Tim Dierkes | November 5, 2013 at 1:05pm CDT

As explained in this series of posts, Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model for MLBTR to project arbitration salaries.  We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  By my count there are 214 remaining arbitration eligible players.  Click here to download an Excel spreadsheet with our projected salaries, or click below to see everything.  For thoughts on each arbitration player, click the team name to see the associated Arbitration Eligibles post.

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Angels (8)

  • Mark Trumbo – $4.7MM
  • Jerome Williams – $3.9MM
  • Tommy Hanson – $3.9MM
  • Ernesto Frieri – $3.4MM
  • Kevin Jepsen – $1.4MM
  • Juan Gutierrez – $1.1MM
  • Peter Bourjos – $1.1MM
  • Chris Nelson – $1MM

Astros (1)

  • Jason Castro – $2.2MM

Athletics (11)

  • Jed Lowrie – $4.8MM
  • Seth Smith – $4.3MM
  • Brandon Moss – $3.8MM
  • John Jaso – $2.2MM
  • Josh Reddick – $2.2MM
  • Jerry Blevins – $1.5MM
  • Daric Barton – $1.4MM
  • Pat Neshek – $1.2MM
  • Jesse Chavez – $600K
  • Scott Sizemore – $600K
  • Fernando Rodriguez – $500K

Blue Jays (4)

  • Colby Rasmus – $6.5MM
  • J.P. Arencibia – $2.8MM
  • Esmil Rogers – $1MM
  • Brett Cecil – $900K

Braves (14)

  • Craig Kimbrel – $7.25MM
  • Kris Medlen – $5.9MM
  • Freddie Freeman – $4.9MM
  • Jason Heyward – $4.5MM
  • Chris Johnson – $4.2MM
  • Mike Minor – $3.5MM
  • Jonny Venters – $1.625MM
  • Jordan Walden – $1.5MM
  • Jordan Schafer – $1MM
  • Elliot Johnson – $900K
  • Brandon Beachy – $900K
  • Cristhian Martinez – $750K
  • Paul Janish – $725K
  • Ramiro Pena – $600K

Brewers (3)

  • Marco Estrada – $3.5MM
  • Burke Badenhop – $2.1MM
  • Juan Francisco – $1.4MM

Cardinals (5)

  • John Axford – $5.7MM
  • David Freese – $4.4MM
  • Jon Jay – $3.4MM
  • Daniel Descalso – $1.2MM
  • Fernando Salas – $700K

Cubs (10)

  • Jeff Samardzija – $4.9MM
  • Nate Schierholtz – $4.4MM
  • Travis Wood – $3.6MM
  • Darwin Barney – $2.1MM
  • Daniel Bard – $1.8625MM
  • James Russell – $1.7MM
  • Luis Valbuena – $1.5MM
  • Donnie Murphy – $1MM
  • Pedro Strop – $1MM
  • Mat Gamel – $500K

Diamondbacks (7)

  • Brad Ziegler – $5MM
  • Gerardo Parra – $4.2MM
  • Joe Thatcher – $2MM
  • Tony Sipp – $1.4MM
  • Daniel Hudson – $1.1MM
  • Josh Collmenter – $900K
  • Matt Reynolds – Avoided arbitration for $600K

Dodgers (7)

  • Clayton Kershaw – $18.25MM
  • Kenley Jansen – $4.8MM
  • A.J. Ellis – $3.2MM
  • Ronald Belisario – $2.3MM
  • Drew Butera – $700K
  • Scott Elbert – $600K
  • Mike Baxter – $500K

Giants (6)

  • Brandon Belt – $2.4MM
  • Gregor Blanco – $2.2MM
  • Jose Mijares – $2.1MM
  • Yusmeiro Petit – $1.3MM
  • Joaquin Arias – $1.2MM
  • Tony Abreu – $700K

Indians (9)

  • Justin Masterson – $9.7MM
  • Drew Stubbs – $3.8MM
  • Michael Brantley – $3.7MM
  • Marc Rzepczynski – $1.4MM
  • Vinnie Pestano – $1.3MM
  • Josh Tomlin – $1.1MM
  • Lou Marson – $1MM
  • Blake Wood – $800K
  • Frank Herrmann – $600K

Mariners (2)

  • Justin Smoak – $2.8MM
  • Michael Saunders – $2MM

Marlins (7)

  • Giancarlo Stanton – $4.8MM
  • Steve Cishek – $3.2MM
  • Justin Ruggiano – $1.8MM
  • Logan Morrison – $1.7MM
  • Ryan Webb – $1.5MM
  • Mike Dunn – $1.4MM
  • Chris Coghlan – $800K

Mets (10)

  • Daniel Murphy – $5.8MM
  • Ike Davis – $3.5MM
  • Dillon Gee – $3.4MM
  • Bobby Parnell – $3.2MM
  • Eric Young – $1.9MM
  • Lucas Duda – $1.8MM
  • Scott Atchison – $1.3MM
  • Ruben Tejada – $1MM
  • Omar Quintanilla – $900K
  • Justin Turner – $800K

Nationals (8)

  • Jordan Zimmermann – $10.5MM
  • Ian Desmond – $6.9MM
  • Tyler Clippard – $6.2MM
  • Stephen Strasburg – $3.9MM
  • Drew Storen – $3.6MM
  • Ross Detwiler – $2.8MM
  • Wilson Ramos – $2.1MM
  • Ross Ohlendorf – $1.3MM

Orioles (9)

  • Jim Johnson – $10.8MM
  • Chris Davis – $10MM
  • Matt Wieters – $7.9MM
  • Bud Norris – $5MM
  • Tommy Hunter – $3.1MM
  • Brian Matusz – $2.1MM
  • Nolan Reimold – $1.2MM
  • Troy Patton – $1.2MM
  • Steve Pearce – $1.1MM

Padres (10)

  • Chase Headley – $10MM
  • Ian Kennedy – $5.8MM
  • Luke Gregerson – $4.9MM
  • Eric Stults – $3MM
  • Andrew Cashner – $2.4MM
  • Everth Cabrera – $2.2MM
  • Jesus Guzman – $1.3MM
  • Tyson Ross – $1.3MM
  • Tim Stauffer – $1.2MM
  • Kyle Blanks – $1MM

Phillies (5)

  • Kyle Kendrick – $6.6MM
  • Antonio Bastardo – $2MM
  • John Mayberry – $1.7MM
  • Ben Revere – $1.5MM
  • Kevin Frandsen – $1.3MM

Pirates (9)

  • Garrett Jones – $5.3MM
  • Neil Walker – $4.8MM
  • Pedro Alvarez – $4MM
  • Charlie Morton – $3.9MM
  • Mark Melancon – $3MM
  • Gaby Sanchez – $2.3MM
  • Travis Snider – $1.4MM
  • Michael McKenry – $900K
  • Vin Mazzaro – $800K

Rangers (6)

  • Neftali Feliz – $3MM
  • Mitch Moreland – $2.7MM
  • Alexi Ogando – $2MM
  • Neal Cotts – $1.5MM
  • Craig Gentry – $1.1MM
  • Adam Rosales – $900K

Rays (10)

  • David Price – $13.1MM
  • Matt Joyce – $3.7MM
  • Jeff Niemann – $3.4MM
  • Jeremy Hellickson – $3.3MM
  • Wesley Wright – $1.4MM
  • Sean Rodriguez – $1.3MM
  • Jake McGee – $1.2MM
  • Jose Lobaton – $1MM
  • Sam Fuld – $900K
  • Cesar Ramos – $700K

Red Sox (5)

  • Andrew Bailey – $4.3MM
  • Andrew Miller – $1.9MM
  • Franklin Morales – $1.8MM
  • Mike Carp – $1.3MM
  • Junichi Tazawa – $1.1MM

Reds (8)

  • Homer Bailey – $9.3MM
  • Mike Leake – $5.9MM
  • Aroldis Chapman – $4.6MM
  • Ryan Hanigan – $2.3MM
  • Chris Heisey – $1.7MM
  • Alfredo Simon – $1.6MM
  • Xavier Paul – $1MM
  • Sam LeCure – $1MM

Rockies (5)

  • Wilton Lopez – $2.2MM
  • Juan Nicasio – $1.7MM
  • Mitchell Boggs – $1.5MM
  • Josh Outman – $1.4MM
  • Jonathan Herrera – $1.2MM

Royals (12)

  • Luke Hochevar – $5MM
  • Greg Holland – $4.9MM
  • Eric Hosmer – $4.1MM
  • Emilio Bonifacio – $3.3MM
  • Aaron Crow – $1.9MM
  • Felipe Paulino – $1.75MM
  • Chris Getz – $1.3MM
  • George Kottaras – $1.2MM
  • Justin Maxwell – $1.2MM
  • Luis Mendoza – $1MM
  • Tim Collins – $1MM
  • Brett Hayes – $900K

Tigers (9)

  • Max Scherzer – $13.6MM
  • Rick Porcello – $7.7MM
  • Doug Fister – $6.9MM
  • Austin Jackson – $5.3MM
  • Alex Avila – $3.7MM
  • Phil Coke – $2.1MM
  • Andy Dirks – $1.7MM
  • Don Kelly – $900K
  • Al Alburquerque – $700K

Twins (3)

  • Trevor Plouffe – $2.1MM
  • Brian Duensing – $1.9MM
  • Anthony Swarzak – $800K

White Sox (4)

  • Alejandro De Aza – $4.4MM
  • Gordon Beckham – $3.5MM
  • Dayan Viciedo – $2.8MM
  • Tyler Flowers – $1MM

Yankees (7)

  • David Robertson – $5.5MM
  • Brett Gardner – $4MM
  • Ivan Nova – $2.8MM
  • Shawn Kelley – $1.5MM
  • Jayson Nix – $1.4MM
  • Francisco Cervelli – $1MM
  • Chris Stewart – $1MM
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2014 Arbitration Eligibles

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Arbitration Eligibles: Boston Red Sox

By Tim Dierkes | November 5, 2013 at 12:54pm CDT

Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Red Sox conclude our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.  An explanation of our service time format: 5.062 means five years and 62 days.  172 days of service is equal to one year.

  • Andrew Bailey (5.000): $4.3MM
  • Andrew Miller (5.062): $1.9MM
  • Franklin Morales (5.007): $1.8MM
  • Mike Carp (3.010): $1.3MM
  • Junichi Tazawa (3.086): $1.1MM

Bailey's time in Boston did not go well.  He needed thumb surgery early in 2012, making his season debut in mid-August and pitching poorly.  The Red Sox retained him through arbitration for 2013, but also acquired Joel Hanrahan to close.  Bailey took over as closer when Hanrahan hit the DL for a hamstring injury, and was still the closer after missing time himself for a biceps injury.  Bailey lost the ninth inning job in mid-June due to poor performance, and in July ended up needing season-ending shoulder surgery.  It seems that Bailey will miss much of the 2014 season as he recovers, so he's certain to be non-tendered by Boston.

Miller had a solid 2012 campaign for the Red Sox and started off acceptably this year, until enduring a July foot injury that required season-ending surgery.  He expects to be ready for Spring Training, and his price tag is palatable for a situational lefty.  Tazawa was excellent in the regular season and playoffs, and will have a prominent role in next year's bullpen.

The Red Sox have Craig Breslow under contract, so along with Miller, Morales represents a potential third southpaw in next year's bullpen.  Morales began the season on the DL for a back injury, and then strained a pectoral muscle in late April.  The Red Sox stretched him out as a starter as he rehabbed the injury, but his May 30th season debut was his only start of the season.  A shoulder injury put him back on the DL in late June, from which he returned in mid-August.  He pitched in the Division Series and ALCS but was not used in the World Series despite being on the roster.  It's hard to give up on a 28-year-old southpaw who throws 93-94 miles per hour, and Morales is cheap enough that the Red Sox might keep him around for 2014 or at least find a trade partner for him this winter.

Carp was designated for assignment by the Mariners in February, and after interest from the Twins, Astros, Brewers, the Red Sox acquired him, eventually just sending cash in return.  Carp, a left-handed hitter, faced righties in 88% of his plate appearances and authored an excellent overall line of .296/.362/.523.  The Red Sox will be happy to have him as part of next year's bench.

Assuming the Red Sox tender contracts to Miller, Morales, Carp, and Tazawa, they're looking at an estimated $6.1MM for four arbitration eligible players.

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2014 Arbitration Eligibles Boston Red Sox

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Arbitration Eligibles: St. Louis Cardinals

By Tim Dierkes | November 5, 2013 at 11:26am CDT

Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Cardinals are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

  • John Axford (3.170): $5.7MM
  • David Freese (4.028): $4.4MM
  • Jon Jay (3.134): $3.4MM
  • Daniel Descalso (3.016): $1.2MM
  • Fernando Salas (3.014): $700K

The Cardinals added Axford in a late August trade with the Brewers, and the 30-year-old righty did a nice job in 10 1/3 regular season innings for St. Louis, picking up another 5 2/3 innings in the postseason.  He recorded 19 holds this year, after amassing 106 saves previously in his career.  Saves pay well in arbitration, getting Axford a $5MM salary his first time through.  Axford would be useful to pencil into next year's pen, with Edward Mujica up for free agency and a decent-sized contract and Carlos Martinez being considered for the rotation.  However, Axford's projected arbitration cost is a little steep, making a non-tender likely if the Cardinals are not able to find a team willing to take him on in trade.

Freese represents a tougher decision.  The MVP of the 2011 postseason, Freese hit .262/.340/.381 in 521 regular season plate appearances this year and .179/.258/.268 in the playoffs.  He was quite good as recently as 2012, and to non-tender him seems drastic given a $4.4MM salary projection.  If Freese stays with the Cardinals, it seems likely the presence of Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong will affect his playing time.  The Cards could also trade Freese this offseason.

The Cardinals are a team with few deficiencies, but center field is another potential area of upgrade.  Jay, 29 in March, hit .276/.351/.370 in 628 plate appearances.  At the least, he remains a useful player at $3.4MM.  Jay's situation is similar to Freese: a non-tender seems unlikely, a trade is possible, and he may be pushed for playing time if he stays with St. Louis.  Descalso, meanwhile, seems likely to have a utility role on next year's club.

Salas, 29 in May, was the Cardinals' surprise closer for much of 2011, but spent time in the minors in 2012.  This year, he battled a shoulder injury and bounced up and down from Triple-A.  With a projected salary under a million bucks, the Cardinals might be able to find a taker in a trade if Salas is not part of their plans for 2014.

Assuming the Cardinals tender contracts to Freese, Jay, Descalso, and Salas, they're looking at an estimated $9.7MM for four arbitration eligible players.

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2014 Arbitration Eligibles St. Louis Cardinals

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Free Agent Profile: Stephen Drew

By Tim Dierkes | November 5, 2013 at 7:51am CDT

Stephen Drew signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox last offseason to rebuild his value after losing nearly a year to a gruesome ankle injury.  "I think after this year, I think everyone is going to think a lot different about what type of player Stephen is and the impact he can have on a division-contending team," said agent Scott Boras when Drew signed.  Drew went on to have the mostly healthy, productive season he and his agent envisioned. The free agent market for shortstops is bleak, and Drew stands to benefit.

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Strengths/Pros

The average shortstop hit just .254/.308/.367 this year, so any offense out of the position is a plus.  Drew's .253/.333/.443 line looks quite good by comparison.  His OBP ranked third in baseball among shortstops with 500 PAs, and his slugging percentage ranked fourth.  Drew's .190 isolated power trailed only Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki among shortstops.  There's room for more, too — Drew posted a .352 OBP in 2010, and slugged .502 with 21 home runs in '08.

Among those with 500 plate appearances in 2013, Drew's 4.10 pitches per PA ranked 21st in all of baseball, bested only by two other free agents.  He works the count well.

Drew really took off after returning from a hamstring injury in 2013, hitting .292/.367/.513 in 221 plate appearances from July 27th onward.

Drew's defense grades out as above average based on UZR, and anyone who saw him in the playoffs would agree.  Drew's overall production was good for 3.4 wins above replacement, and he reached 4.7 as recently as 2010.  He's an all-around player at a premium position.

Drew is still relatively young, as he doesn't turn 31 until March.

Weaknesses/Cons

Drew fractured his right ankle in a slide at home plate on July 20th, 2011, a season-ending injury that required surgery.  He hoped to be ready for Opening Day 2012, but instead made his season debut for the Diamondbacks on June 27th.  Said D'Backs Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick, "I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now, frankly.  I, for one, am disappointed. I'm going to be real candid and say Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than on going out and supporting the team that's paying his salary."  Boras denied the claim, making a reasonable point: "If you're talking about what the best thing Stephen can do for himself, that's to play baseball and play a lot of it.  I don't think he wants anything different. That's the best thing he can do for Stephen and for his team. Why would he not want to play? The guy's going to be a free agent."  Still, some damage was likely done to Drew's reputation by Kendrick's comments.  It didn't help that Stephen's older brother J.D. had been known as one of the game's more injury-prone players.  With free agency approaching, the D'Backs traded Stephen Drew to the Athletics in an August waiver trade.

A spring concussion pushed Drew's Red Sox debut to April 10th, and he later missed three weeks due to a hamstring injury.  Though Drew's injuries this year seemed minor and were not related to his ankle, he was limited to 124 regular season games, for a three-year average of about 96.  Until he goes out and does it, some teams may be skeptical that Drew can handle 140+ games again.

Drew, a left-handed hitter, batted just .196/.246/.340 against southpaws this year.  He had a rough time away from Fenway, hitting .222/.295/.392 on the road.  Drew also struggled mightily with the bat in the postseason, with a .111/.140/.204 line in 57 plate appearances.  For most teams, the small postseason sample shouldn't be a deterrent, and Drew did homer in Game Six of the World Series.

Drew received a qualifying offer, so a team will have to forfeit its highest available draft pick to sign him.  It is possible the qualifying offer could have a significant effect on his market.

Personal

Drew was born in a small town in southern Georgia and resides nearby with his wife and two sons in the offseason, right down the street from older brother J.D.  By getting drafted in the first round in 2004, Stephen matched the near-impossible standard set by his older brothers Tim and J.D., who had both been drafted in the first round in 1997.  The Drew brothers are the only trio of siblings to have been selected in the first round of the MLB draft.  J.D. had a successful baseball career, which ended with a five-year stint with Boston, while Tim logged 35 appearances across in parts of five seasons.  Stephen told Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com he was a natural-born right-handed hitter, but took up swinging from the left side in admiration of J.D.   He'd later follow J.D. to Florida State and to the Red Sox (and even chose his number seven), though at a young age Stephen chose a very different position in shortstop rather than the outfield.

J.D. had a reputation of being quiet and dispassionate, but Stephen talks a lot more than his brother, noted Red Sox manager John Farrell in Edes' article.  He's a deeply religious man, wrote MLB.com's Steve Gilbert in 2010. 

Market

There hasn't been much buzz about the Red Sox re-signing Drew, perhaps because they have a ready replacement in Xander Bogaerts.  Teams that may be seeking a shortstop this offseason include the Pirates, Cardinals, and Mets.  Drew's market is not limited to that trio, and he will probably need some unexpected suitors to materialize.  For example, the Dodgers could move Hanley Ramirez to third base to make room.  Drew's only free agent competition is Jhonny Peralta, who won't cost a draft pick but also isn't considered a shortstop by some teams. 

Expected Contract

Boras is probably telling teams Drew is one of the best shortstops in baseball, and certainly the best available this winter.  Don't be surprised if Boras sets out seeking a five-year contract for his client.  In reality, though, the fourth year will be a sticking point for most teams, along with the draft pick, and a three-year deal in the $36-42MM range is possible.  But I see Drew closer to the Michael Bourn range, so I'm predicting a four-year, $48MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Boston Red Sox Free Agent Profiles Stephen Drew

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2014 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions

By Tim Dierkes | November 4, 2013 at 10:55pm CDT

The eighth annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list is here! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position and signing team with our free agent tracker here.

This is the third year for our free agent prediction contest, which allows you to test your prognostication abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers.  Last year 5,239 people entered, with Josh Larabee taking home the batting title with 20 correct picks and a .400 average.  I topped MLBTR writers with 16 correct.  The contest is back for 2014 and is open now!  You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 10th at midnight central time, and you're free to make changes up until that point (I will certainly make changes up until the end).  A Facebook account is required.  Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive sweet prizes. Here are the top 50 free agents for which you'll be making predictions, along with my guesses.  Player names are linked to our Free Agent Profiles.

1.  Robinson Cano – Yankees.  Cano is likely to join Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, and Prince Fielder as baseball's fifth $200MM player.  Cano made news in April, dropping agent Scott Boras in favor of Jay Z's Roc Nation Sports, which will be supported by CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen in negotiations.  Cano, 31, is the complete package, a durable second baseman who hits in the middle of the order and provides a .310 batting average, 30 home runs, and 100+ RBI with above average defense.  He's averaged more than six wins above replacement per season for the Yankees since 2010, a level of production justifying a yearly salary north of $25MM.  There was talk in September of Cano seeking ten years and $305-310MM, which would be the largest contract in baseball history by far.  We think he'll fall well short of $300MM, especially with the Dodgers looking unlikely.  Casting a wide net, Cano's speculative suitors aside from the Yankees could include the Rangers, Mariners, Blue Jays, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Nationals, and Cubs, though none of those teams seem like an obvious match.  At any rate, it will be an ownership-level conversation for Jay Z and Van Wagenen.

2.  Jacoby Ellsbury – Mariners.  Ellsbury is a 30-year-old center fielder and leadoff man whose speed contributes to strong defense and big stolen base totals.  His power is mostly of the doubles and triples variety, as he's only reached double digits in home runs once.  That was in his 2011 season, an MVP-caliber campaign in which he hit 32 home runs and accounted for a superstar level nine WAR.  Ellsbury spent significant time on the disabled list in the 2010 and '12 seasons.  The first injury was cracked ribs after a collision with Adrian Beltre and the second a shoulder injury after a collision with Reid Brignac, prompting agent Scott Boras to say in July, "Jacoby Ellsbury is a very durable player. He just has to make sure that people don’t run into him."  I think a goal for Boras will be to top Carl Crawford's seven-year, $142MM deal from three years ago.  Boras will surely be making his pitch directly to team owners, who could green-light a huge contract even if the GM disapproves.  The Mariners have money to spend and may find extra appeal in that Ellsbury is an Oregon native.  Otherwise, the Red Sox could bring him back, or the Rangers, Tigers, Yankees, and Cubs could be fits.

3.  Shin-Soo Choo – Tigers.  Choo posted a robust .423 on-base percentage this year, leading all free agents and ranking fourth in baseball.  He's another Boras leadoff man with a shot at $100MM, so you can be sure we'll hear the agent talking about how leadoff hitters are the new 40 home run hitters.  Despite playing center field this year, Choo fits best in an outfield corner.  There are questions about his defense and ability to hit left-handed pitching, and as with Cano, Ellsbury, McCann, Santana, and others, a team will have to forfeit its highest available draft pick to sign him.  The 31-year-old South Korea native should require a contract in excess of Hunter Pence's five-year, $90MM deal, making a return to the Reds unlikely.  The Tigers' interest in signing Choo to play an outfield corner is unknown, but surely Boras' relationship with owner Mike Ilitch will lead to a conversation.  The Mets, Yankees, Rangers, Mariners, Cubs, and Astros are other potential matches.

4.  Brian McCann – Rangers.  McCann, 30 in February, is a power-hitting catcher with a middle of the order reputation.  He's an above average defensive backstop as well, so he's not destined to move off the position in the immediate future.  Still, with a five-year term expected, an American League team makes more sense to allow for increasing time at designated hitter as the contract winds down.  Like Ellsbury, McCann bounced back from a shoulder injury to have a strong 2013, and like Choo, he hasn't been good against left-handed pitching lately.  The Rangers are a natural fit, but the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Phillies, and Dodgers could be other considerations for agent B.B. Abbott.

5.  Masahiro Tanaka – Dodgers.  Not technically a free agent, Tanaka is expected to be posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league.  MLB and NPB are closing in on an agreement for changes to the posting system, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  The Rangers paid $51.7MM to negotiate with Yu Darvish two years ago, and executives who spoke with Yahoo's Jeff Passan expect something like $75MM to negotiate with Tanaka.  Whatever the fee, it will not count against the team's luxury tax payroll, and a contract will still have to be negotiated with Tanaka's as yet unknown agent.  Tanaka is known to have a great splitter and while he doesn't project to be as good as Darvish, some reports have suggested he could step directly into a Major League rotation as a number two starter.  At just 25 years old, an MLB team would get much of his prime years, making him a potential match even for teams not expected to contend in 2014.  The Dodgers, Yankees, and Angels are expected to be major players, while I can see the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Twins, Royals, Mariners, Astros, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, and Rockies being involved as well.

6.  Ervin Santana – Yankees.  Santana is competing with Tanaka and Garza for the title of best available starting pitcher, after posting 211 innings of 3.24 ball for the Royals this year.  Santana throws relatively hard, avoids walks, and doesn't turn 31 until December.  He has been homer-prone at times, and some teams may balk at losing a draft pick and giving Santana our projected five-year, $75MM deal.  Nonetheless, the list of suitors should be long if the Royals aren't able to retain Santana, potentially including the Yankees, Twins, Blue Jays, Nationals, Mariners, Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers, Astros, and more.

7.  Matt Garza – Nationals. Limited to 259 innings over the last two seasons, our projected four-year deal in excess of $60MM would be unprecedented for a pitcher with a questionable recent health history.  Once Garza recovered from a stress fracture in his elbow and a lat strain, he went on to make all 24 starts for the Cubs and Rangers this year.  Since he was traded midseason, he's ineligible for a qualifying offer, adding value in comparison to Santana.  Garza is a hard thrower who has consistently posted sub-4.00 ERAs, with good K/BB ratios in recent years.  The Nationals figure to bring in some kind of starter, while the Phillies, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mariners, and Yankees also seem like potential fits.  The Astros are my dark horse here. 

8.  Hiroki Kuroda – Yankees.  Kuroda provided the Yankees with a 3.31 ERA over 421 innings from 2012-13, and they'd like to have him back even though he will pitch next year at age 39.  MLBTR's Steve Adams describes Kuroda as a "groundball pitcher with plus command," noting that teams may be reluctant to forfeit a draft pick to sign him.  Kuroda figures to be picky in free agency, but we don't know if his preference will be a return to the Yankees, California, or Japan, or to simply retire at the top of his game.

9.  A.J. Burnett – Pirates.  Burnett will be even more picky than Kuroda, as he's deciding between the Pirates or retirement.  He has given the Bucs 393 1/3 innings of 3.41 ball from 2012-13 and would pitch next year at 37.  He still misses lots of bats and keeps the ball on the ground.  His decision will greatly impact the Pirates' offseason.  The team chose not to make a qualifying offer, giving both sides more freedom to work out a fair deal.

10.  Mike Napoli – Red Sox.  Napoli, 32, is one of the top sluggers on the free agent market after hitting 21 home runs with 92 RBI in the regular season and adding a few more key hits in the postseason.  A three-year, $39MM deal with the Red Sox last offseason was negotiated down to one year and $5MM when a physical revealed he has avascular necrosis (AVN) in both hips.  He ended up earning the full $13MM through incentives, staying relatively healthy and strengthening his position for this offseason.  Another asset: he's played in the postseason six times out of eight total seasons.  On the other hand, Napoli does strike out a lot and some teams will have a hard time sacrificing a draft pick and giving him our projected three-year, $42MM contract.  After missing out on Jose Dariel Abreu, we'll learn soon if the Red Sox are willing to guarantee a third year to Napoli, for real this time, fresh off a World Championship.

11.  Ubaldo Jimenez – Blue Jays.  From April 29th onward, Jimenez posted a 2.61 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in 165 2/3 innings, and he finished especially strong.  It seems likely Jimenez will turn down the qualifying offer from the Indians and will require a new team to forfeit a draft pick, unlike Nolasco.  Still, he posted an excellent 3.30 ERA this year and finished third in the NL Cy Young voting in 2010, so Jimenez has upside that Nolasco doesn't.  Jimenez, 30 in January, seems to have a good shot at the Edwin Jackson contract: four years, $52MM. Suitors could include the Blue Jays, Angels, Yankees, Twins, Mariners, Astros, Nationals, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants.

12.  Carlos Beltran – Yankees.  Beltran is a middle of the order bat who can likely be had on a two-year deal because he'll turn 37 in April.  He's a 25 home run switch-hitter with a strong October reputation, though his market will be hurt by receiving a qualifying offer.  An American League team might be wise, given the chance of Beltran picking up some DH at-bats.  He's had interest in the Yankees for a decade now, and this might finally be the year it happens.  The Royals, Rangers, Orioles, and Pirates are other potential fits if Beltran doesn't re-sign with the Cardinals.

13.  Curtis Granderson - Mets.  After a pair of 40 home run seasons, Granderson lost most of 2013 to separate incidents in which a pitch broke a bone (his forearm and a finger).  Granderson is "widely regarded as one of the most amiable players in the game," noted MLBTR's Steve Adams, who predicted a three-year, $45MM contract.  Aside from the fact that he'll play next year at age 33, one factor that will hurt Granderson's market value is the qualifying offer he received from the Yankees.  According to Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News prior to the offer, agent Matt Brown said it's possible they could accept.  If Granderson does hit the market, the Mets have to come away with some kind of decent outfielder, and Granderson is capable of playing all three positions.  Granderson is a Chicago guy, and the Cubs or Sox could make it work.  

14.  Stephen Drew – Mets.  Drew signed a one-year, $9.5MM make-good contract with the Red Sox last December, and for the most part he did just that.  Drew, 31 in March, played in 120+ games for the first time since 2010 despite enduring a hamstring injury.  Though he weathered a postseason slump, Drew has an above-average bat for a shortstop.  He excelled defensively during the regular season and on the big stage in the playoffs.  Drew will be dragging a qualifying offer around, but his competition is light on the shortstop market.  Agent Scott Boras has a shot at four years at more than $10MM annually.  The Red Sox may feel they have a ready replacement in Xander Bogaerts, so the Mets, Cardinals, and Pirates are Drew's most likely suitors.  

15.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia – White Sox.  Salty had the best overall year of any free agent catcher, and he won't turn 29 until May.  He's a switch-hitter with good power.  Drawbacks include a poor line against southpaws and lots of strikeouts.  Saltalamacchia was benched by the Red Sox in the World Series in favor of David Ross.  He was able to avoid a qualifying offer, which will be to his advantage in the marketplace and could allow him to top my predicted four-year, $36MM deal.  I don't love the White Sox prediction, so other possibilities include the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Phillies, and, to think outside the box, the Angels and Marlins.

16.  Scott Kazmir - Twins.  The lefty signed a minor league deal with the Indians before the season, and 29 strong starts later he's back on the radar as a top 20 free agent.  Just 30 in January, Kazmir has never been an innings guy, but he does flash front of the rotation stuff.  I've predicted a two-year, $16MM deal.  With the reasonable price, upside, and no draft pick compensation, Kazmir could wind up with a dozen suitors.

17.  Nelson Cruz – Phillies.  Cruz is one of the better power bats on the free agent market, but he's 33 years old, limited defensively, and was suspended 50 games this year for his connection to Biogenesis.  The Rangers made Cruz a qualifying offer, and he's yet another player whose market will be hurt by draft pick compensation.  With power in short supply, it's possible Cruz could top Beltran and receive a three-year deal.  The Phillies, in search of right-handed outfield power, could be a nice match if the Rangers don't retain him.  The Royals, Mets, Pirates, and Diamondbacks could be other considerations.

18.  Omar Infante - Tigers.  One of the ten best second basemen in the game, Infante doesn't strike out much and is solid defensively, and he didn't receive a qualifying offer.  I think he can find a three-year deal in the $25MM range, maybe to stay with the Tigers.  The Cubs, Yankees, Orioles, and Royals are other possibilities.

19.  Joe Nathan - Tigers.  With the Rangers seemingly willing to let their closer walk, Nathan will be seeking a win-now team willing to overpay to solidify the ninth inning with the legendary but aging righty on a two-year deal for around $26MM.  The Tigers could replace Joaquin Benoit with Nathan, while the Yankees and Angels are other possibilities.

20.  Ricky Nolasco – Phillies.  Nolasco, 31 in December, saw his stock rise after joining the Dodgers in a July trade and posting a 3.52 ERA in 87 innings.  Three rough outings in September took some of the shine off, but even innings eaters make good money these days.  And unlike Ervin Santana, Nolasco is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.  I've come around to the idea that Nolasco should be able to find Edwin Jackson's four-year, $52MM deal.  He could solidify the Phillies' rotation, and may also be an option for the Twins, Giants, Angels, Rockies, or Mariners if the Dodgers don't retain him.

21.  Jhonny Peralta – Cardinals.  Peralta, who will play most of next season at age 32, is a strong hitter for a shortstop.  Defensively, he's considered to have strong hands but limited range, so some teams may view him as a third baseman.  His stock will be hurt by this year's 50-game Biogenesis suspension, which prompted the Tigers to acquire his successor in Jose Iglesias.  Peralta still may manage a three-year deal in the $30MM range, given the limited market at his position.  The Cardinals could plug their shortstop hole with Peralta, while other potential matches include the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Pirates. 

22.  Bartolo Colon – Indians.  Colon, 41 in May, resurrected his career by getting bone marrow and fat stem calls injected into his elbow and shoulder in 2010.  Returning to the Majors in 2011, Colon started pitching increasingly well, at least in terms of ERA, and his 2.65 mark in 190 1/3 innings this year ranked second in the American League.  Colon tested positive for testosterone in August 2012, earning a 50-game suspension and keeping his price down for the A's for 2013.  The testosterone use was later found to be tied to Biogenesis, and Colon did not get a second suspension for his involvement.  Colon's age and health/PED profile makes a qualifying offer unlikely, but his performance this year could merit $10MM or more on a one-year deal.  I'm not sure if the Indians would be open to a reunion with Colon if the A's are not able to retain him.  Most teams could find room for the righty on a one-year deal.  

23.  Bronson Arroyo – Mets.  Arroyo is the only pitcher in baseball to make at least 32 starts per year from 2005-13.  Arroyo, 37 in February, is the game's most consistent innings-eater.  It appears he'll move on from the Reds after eight seasons, and he didn't receive a potentially budget-busting qualifying offer.  I've pegged Arroyo at two years and $24MM, which could be palatable for the Mets, Twins, Giants, and several other teams looking to solidify the backend of their rotation. 

24.  Marlon Byrd – Pirates.  Byrd, 36, hit a career low with a PED suspension in June 2012.  The outfielder signed a minor league deal with the Mets and improbably became their starting right fielder.  He hit five home runs in May and didn't look back, mashing 24 overall between the Mets and Pirates.  A two-year deal in the $15MM range seems possible.  If a contract can't be hammered out with the Pirates, the Royals, Orioles, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, or Giants could make sense.

25.  Grant Balfour – Yankees.  After saving 62 games over the 2012-13 seasons, Balfour will likely be seeking a closer gig in free agency.  The Aussie, 36 in December, could get something like $18MM over two years.  As with Joe Nathan, the Yankees, Angels, and Tigers make sense, but with more than a half-dozen closer types on the market, a few of them will need to settle for set-up jobs. 

26.  Joaquin Benoit – Cubs.  MLBTR readers prefer Balfour to Benoit, though they're both quality late-inning options who will get multiyear deals.  Benoit, 36, set the market for setup men three years ago with a three-year, $16.5MM deal, and with 24 saves under his belt in 2013 he could earn that much or more for two years.  The Cubs figure to add relief help of some sort, while the Tigers, Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, and Rockies will also be in the market.

27.  Scott Feldman – Orioles.  The Cubs' one-year, $6MM investment in Feldman a year ago paid off, as he provided 15 solid starts for them before being flipped to the Orioles in a trade for controllable players.  The Orioles were happy with the results and Feldman could continue to stabilize their rotation on a new two-year deal.  The Twins, Yankees, Blue Jays, Indians, Royals, Angels, Mariners, Astros, Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Brewers, Giants, Padres, and Rockies could fit on guys like this, basically half of baseball.

28.  Kendrys Morales – Mariners.  Morales is a 30-year-old switch-hitter with no major flaws offensively, and even a guy you could dream on for 30 home run potential outside of Safeco.  Many factors will conspire to hold down interest, however: he's mostly a designated hitter, he'll come with draft pick compensation attached, and agent Scott Boras has aggressive asking prices.  The Mariners might be the only team that values Morales at two years and $28MM, though the Yankees, Orioles, Indians, Twins, Rangers, Mariners, and Astros might be interested if not for the draft pick cost.  Some feel Morales could accept the qualifying offer, but that's not a typical Boras move.

29.  Carlos Ruiz – Phillies.  Chooch had an off year, beginning with a suspension for using Adderall and also missing time with a hamstring strain.  He was quietly one of the game's top offensive catchers from 2010-12, which should be enough to get him a two-year, $14MM deal.  Ruiz, 35 in January, could draw interest from the Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Rangers if he can't find common ground to remain in Philadelphia.

30.  Josh Johnson – Royals.  Johnson, 30 in January, was limited to 15 starts this year for Toronto due to triceps and forearm injuries, culminating in October elbow surgery.  With a 3.14 ERA from 2006-12, the oft-injured, hard-throwing righty will entice many teams on a one-year deal in the $8-10MM range.  The Blue Jays didn't spring for a qualifying offer, but should have interest in bringing Johnson back.  Otherwise, it's easy to picture the Royals, Phillies, Rays, Indians, Astros, Nationals, Pirates, and Cubs entering the fray.  

31.  Tim Hudson – Braves.  A fractured ankle ended Hudson's season in July, so the 38-year-old groundballer seems in line for a one-year deal this winter.  However, agent Paul Cohen told Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca the pitcher seeks a multiyear deal.  The Braves may require a discount, but they're likely Hudson's first choice.  Otherwise, teams such as the Yankees, Nationals, Phillies, and Pirates could get involved, and the Angels and Giants if he's amenable to the West Coast.

32.  Fernando Rodney – Astros.  Rodney resurrected his career with the Rays in 2012, allowing a ridiculous five earned runs in 74 2/3 innings while saving 48 games.  He saved another 37 this year, though his walk rate spiked back to its previous, dangerous rate of nearly five per nine innings.  Since Rodney will turn 37 in March, he's probably limited to a two-year deal, perhaps in the $16MM range.  That seems likely to be out of the Rays' range.  The Tigers and Angels are contenders with potentially available closing jobs, but they may not seek a reunion with Rodney.  That could leave the Yankees, plus the Indians and Rangers if they don't fill their openings internally or more affordably.  Rodney could expand his market by considering closing for non-contenders like the Astros or Cubs, or by taking on a setup job for teams like the Phillies or Rockies.

33.  A.J. Pierzynski – Yankees.  At age 37 in December, Pierzynski might not be many teams' first choice at catcher, but he's still a durable player who makes good contact and hits for power.  Teams that balk at the multiyear demands of McCann and Saltalamacchia could go for Pierzynski, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Marlins, Phillies, or even the Rangers or White Sox again.  

34.  Dan Haren – Giants.  Haren, 33, had strong peripheral stats this year but posted his highest ERA in many years with a 4.67 mark.  He put together a 3.29 ERA in the second half, giving hope for mid-rotation potential in 2014.  The California native would be a good fit for the Giants, Athletics, or Padres on a one-year deal, while a dozen other teams could show interest.

35.  Jason Vargas – Angels.  Vargas came to the Angels a year ago in a trade for #28 on this list, Kendrys Morales.  The southpaw did respectable work until a blood clot in his left armpit knocked him out for nearly two months.  With a strong track record as an innings eater, Vargas may get a three-year deal.  The Halos would like to hang onto him, though the Orioles, Royals, Phillies, and any of the other teams named in Scott Feldman's blurb would make sense.

36.  Suk-min Yoon - Royals.  Public information is light on Yoon, a 27-year-old righty who intends to jump from the Korea Baseball Organization to MLB this winter, as Hyun-jin Ryu did last year.  Yoon isn't as good as Ryu, and may not even profile as a starter for some teams.  The Boras client could still be a bargain on a modest two-year deal if he does profile as a mid-rotation arm.  

37.  James Loney – Twins.  Loney, 30 in May, resurrected his career in Tampa Bay as several other first basemen have before him.  A one-year deal seems likely for Loney, who doesn't have the typical power profile for his position but is regarded as a slick fielder.  I haven't found a great fit for Loney, though the Twins could work.  The Brewers could be a fit if they don't re-sign Corey Hart.  

38.  Phil Hughes – Padres.  Hughes will pitch next year at 28, so he's the youngest domestic free agent starter.  The former first rounder throws relatively hard and has put together some solid K/BB ratios, but was crushed at Yankee Stadium and is homer-prone in general as a flyball pitcher.  On a one-year deal, he could have some upside for a pitcher-friendly NL team like the Padres.

39.  Corey Hart - Brewers.  Recovery from offseason surgery on one knee bled into Hart injuring his other knee and requiring surgery on it as well.  Now he enters free agency after missing all of 2013.  He's said he'll take a discount to remain with the Brewers, the only organization he's ever known, and the team still has a need at first base.  The Rockies and Twins are other possibilities.

40.  Edward Mujica – Phillies.  Though we once pegged Mujica for three years and $21MM, that's feeling steep in light of the Cardinals' decision to avoid him entirely in six World Series games.  Despite the poor finish to his season, there's still plenty in Mujica's favor: he doesn't turn 30 until May, he made the All-Star team, and he saved 37 games in 41 tries with immaculate control.  He still has a shot at three years, but maybe something in the $15-18MM range.  Though the saves in 2013 boost his earning potential, Mujica may still be open to set-up work, so he could work for many teams.  The Phillies are one potential fit, though it may be unreasonable to suggest they'll add $40MM in free agent salaries for 2014 as projected on this list.  

41.  Nate McLouth – Orioles.  This year McLouth played in more than 130 games for the first time since his banner 2008 season with the Pirates.  He seemed stretched a little thin as an everyday left fielder, hitting .243/.306/.380 from May onward.  McLouth still provides quiet value, especially against right-handed pitching, and it should be enough to get him a Jonny Gomes type of contract.  If a return to Baltimore doesn't work out, teams like the Mets and Astros have outfield openings McLouth could help fill at a reasonable cost.

42.  Juan Uribe – Marlins.  Uribe quietly ranked sixth among all free agent position players in FanGraphs wins above replacement this year with 5.1, outpacing names like Mike Napoli, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran.  He was the Uribe of his Giants years, with a workable OBP and solid pop.  He's played the middle infield in his career, but spent most of 2013 at the hot corner, amassing stellar fielding numbers that account for much of that WAR.  While Uribe has always posted strong defensive numbers at third base, those heights are not likely repeatable.  More detrimental to his market value is his replacement level play for the first two years of his Dodgers contract, from 2011-12.  The 34-year-old is probably looking at a one-year deal, though a modest two-year pact is possible.  It's difficult to place any decent free agent in Miami these days, but they could offer Uribe a nice opportunity.  The Yankees, White Sox, and Cubs could be other options.  

43.  Paul Maholm – Brewers.  Maholm is a groundballing 31-year-old southpaw who fits in the back of a team's rotation, most likely on a one-year deal.  Teams seeking a lefty can look at Maholm, Scott Kazmir, Jason Vargas, and Chris Capuano.

44.  Joe Smith – Rockies.  Smith, 30 in March, is a sidearming righty reliever with a 2.42 ERA over 197 innings dating back to 2011.  He's posted strong groundball rates, especially in 2011-12 at over 56%.  Smith isn't amazing in terms of missing bats or avoiding free passes, but he's proven to be tough to hit with 7.6 per nine innings allowed in his career.  The Rockies, Tigers, Astros, Phillies, and Brewers could be among his suitors if the Indians don't re-sign him.

45.  Justin Morneau – Rays.  Morneau hasn't been the same elite hitter since suffering a severe concussion in 2010.  33 in May, he's hit .263/.328/.424 over the past two seasons.  If baseball card stats matter to any teams, Morneau looks a bit better, since he approached 20 home runs and 80 RBI in each of the last two seasons.  Someone will be willing to throw him a one-year deal to see if he can rediscover the magic or at least be a decent complementary piece.  Morneau values playing for a contender, so if he doesn't return to the Pirates, the Rays could make sense.

46.  Jesse Crain – Astros.  Crain's fantastic first half resulted in an All-Star selection, but he didn't pitch after June 29th due to a shoulder injury.  The 32-year-old reliever should come on an affordable one-year deal with incentives due to the health concern.  Crain has ties to Colorado and Houston, and both clubs are seeking relief help.

47.  Brian Wilson – Angels.  The Beard had a successful Tommy John comeback with the Dodgers, though it was still less than 20 innings including the postseason.  He's likely to sign a one-year deal.  The Angels are a potential match, as they could push Ernesto Frieri to a setup role.

48.  Jason Hammel – Mariners.  Hammel was surprisingly good for the 2012 Orioles, though his season was shortened by knee surgery.  His strikeout and groundball rates came crashing down in 2013, and he spent significant time on the DL for inflammation of his ulnar nerve.  The 31-year-old does throw hard, averaging around 93 miles per hour on his fastball, and could provide 170 decent innings on a one-year deal.  The Mariners could use the depth, plus Hammel is semi-local. 

49.  Roy Halladay – Mets.  Halladay, 37 in May, had a brutal 2013.  He had shoulder surgery in May, coming back for six starts toward the end of the season.  His final outing was particularly bad, as he topped out at 83 miles per hour before being pulled.  The former ace is a complete unknown for 2014, but a one-year deal is the only possibility.  I think a team with Spring Training in Florida could be a factor for Halladay.  Doc could wait to sign during the season, to ensure his health is where it needs to be.

50.  Chris Young – Cubs.  Young, 30, joined the Athletics via trade a year ago but had a lost season that included a DL stint for a quad strain.  He should be able to serve as a lefty-mashing quality fourth outfielder who can handle all three positions, with the upside to play himself back into regular duty.  He could join Ryan Sweeney in a platoon with the Cubs, while the Mariners and Phillies could also work.

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Arbitration Eligibles: Detroit Tigers

By Tim Dierkes | November 4, 2013 at 8:27pm CDT

Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Tigers are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

  • Max Scherzer (5.079): $13.6MM
  • Rick Porcello (4.170): $7.7MM
  • Doug Fister (4.058): $6.9MM
  • Austin Jackson (4.000): $5.3MM
  • Alex Avila (4.061): $3.7MM
  • Phil Coke (5.028): $2.1MM
  • Andy Dirks (2.139, Super Two): $1.7MM
  • Don Kelly (4.138): $900K
  • Al Alburquerque (2.147, Super Two): $700K

Scherzer is a strong contender for the AL Cy Young award, after winning 21 games with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts in 214 1/3 innings.  Despite his success, Scherzer's rising price tag and impending free agency have made him a rumored offseason trade candidate.  As a self-described "pretty fanatical fan" of this website, Scherzer will surely be joining you in keeping up-to-date on his situation.  Our projected arbitration salary of $13.6MM would be topped only by Cole Hamels' $15MM in 2012 among starting pitchers, though Clayton Kershaw will speed past both of them if he goes to arbitration.  Scherzer is a 29-year-old strikeout ace represented by Scott Boras who is heading into his contract year.  An extension this offseason is extremely unlikely, unless Scherzer demands Boras to do it and/or the offer is record-shattering.  Boras hasn't had an ace pitcher to take to free agency since Barry Zito seven years ago.

If Scherzer were to sign now, the contract would have to surpass C.C. Sabathia's seven-year, $161MM deal, which is the record in new money for a pitcher until Kershaw signs.  A Scherzer contract would also probably include an opt-out after three or so years.

The Tigers' rotation also includes Porcello and Fister, who both project to jump up to the $7-8MM range.  The most recent extension for a four-plus pitcher was Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal from January.  Fister has a strong case to top that, even if he's not able to get to the $80MM range of Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez prior to the 2010 season.  For all the talk about Scherzer, the Tigers also need to be thinking about big bucks for Fister if they don't want to lose him the following offseason.  Porcello's situation is different, since he was once a Super Two and has a 4.51 career ERA.  Porcello seems more likely to be traded than extended, though they'll probably need him if they move Scherzer.

Jackson's walk rate and power took a dip this year, and he lost a month to a hamstring injury.  He was still a useful hitter and a plus baserunner.  He's locked in for the Tigers' center field job again next year, but an extension seems unlikely since he's represented by Boras.  Avila, the starting catcher, hit under .200 in April, May, June, and August, but posted an OPS over .800 in July and September.  He spent some time on the DL after being hit by a pitch on his forearm, and also endured a concussion in August.  Avila's amazing 2011 season seems well in the rearview.  While the free agent market does offer a potential upgrade in Brian McCann, the Tigers probably do not view catcher as an issue that must be addressed.

Dirks manned left field for the Tigers for much of the season, and seemed exposed with the career-high 484 plate appearances.  Still, he should be retained for 2014.  Kelly, a light-hitting utility player, was retained through arbitration last offseason and was marginally better in 2013.  Though he doesn't project for a raise, his roster spot is in jeopardy.

Coke seems likely to be non-tendered after posting a 5.40 ERA in 38 1/3 innings, in a season that included a DL stint for a groin strain, a minor league demotion in August, and elbow issues.  The 31-year-old was still solid against lefties.  Alburquerque put together an uneven season, with a demotion to Triple-A in May, tons of strikeouts, and tons of walks.  As frustrating as he can be, Alburquerque is a 27-year-old who throws in the mid-90s and misses bats, so he has value at a bit above the league minimum.  The Tigers may consider trading him, but I think he'll be tendered a contract.

Assuming the Tigers tender contracts to Scherzer, Porcello, Fister, Jackson, Avila, Dirks, and Alburquerque, they're looking at an estimated $39.6MM for seven arbitration eligible players.

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2014 Arbitration Eligibles Detroit Tigers

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