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Phillies Pay Premium To Retain Ruiz Early

By Tim Dierkes | November 18, 2013 at 2:37pm CDT

The Phillies made an aggressive strike today, agreeing to a three-year, $26MM contract with catcher Carlos Ruiz.  From the point of view of Ruiz and agent Marc Kligman, this is a clear win and an offer they were unlikely to beat if they waited.  I felt that with Ruiz turning 35 in January, a third guaranteed year was unattainable unless they made a major sacrifice on average annual value.  However, the $8.67MM AAV is strong and in line with what some thought Ruiz might get on a two-year deal.  I am surprised to see Ruiz top Russell Martin's deal from last winter in both years and AAV, especially since Martin was five years younger and coming off a better year.  It's too early to say whether the Ruiz contract is an anomaly, a trend toward rising salaries for catchers, or even a sign that most of the top free agents will beat expectations.

The contract is acceptable for the Phillies in terms of dollars per wins above replacement, as Ruiz is still at least an average regular.  Dollars per WAR isn't the right metric on which to judge a free agent contract, however, especially since the free agent market generally doesn't pay full price for catchers.  How far beyond the runner-up did the Phillies go?  Ideally, you'd only go a little bit beyond the runner-up, especially with a player who had a strong preference to remain in Philadelphia.  According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Phillies guaranteed the third year and hiked the AAV to get the deal done with Ruiz.  If the Phillies were the only team willing to guarantee three years, and it does seem that way, then a hardline stance would have been with a reduced AAV, perhaps around $7.5MM.  Something like three years and $23MM was probably possible, which would have made the third year less painful since Ruiz might have approached $20MM on a two-year offer from the Red Sox, Rockies, Blue Jays, or Yankees eventually.

It's easy to say Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. should have played hardball with Ruiz to save $3-4MM, and that might have been possible.  Still, Ruiz is worth more to the Phillies because of his familiarity with their pitching staff, and Amaro would have faced limited alternatives had he tried to wait Ruiz out.  Brian McCann would have required a much larger commitment, and it appears Jarrod Saltalamacchia will get more than $30MM.  McCann, Saltalamacchia, and A.J. Pierzynski all bat left-handed, and the Phillies likely sought a right-handed bat for lineup balance even after signing Marlon Byrd.  That basically leaves Dioner Navarro, a switch-hitter who hasn't been a regular since 2009.  The trade market is even more questionable, and the Phillies don't have good internal options at catcher.  The Phillies paid a premium to lock up Ruiz this early in the offseason, but the contract is still acceptable.  The Winter Meetings are still three weeks away, and Amaro has already addressed two major holes in his lineup.

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Philadelphia Phillies Transaction Analysis Carlos Ruiz

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Phillies Sign Shawn Camp

By Tim Dierkes | November 13, 2013 at 12:23pm CDT

The Phillies signed reliever Shawn Camp to a minor league deal, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Agent Dave Meier represents the righty.

Camp, 38 next week, posted a 7.04 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.74 HR/9, and 48.8% groundball rate in 23 innings for the Cubs this year before getting released in July.  He then signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks and posted a 2.42 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, and 0.81 HR/9 in 22 1/3 Triple-A frames.  In 2012 with the Cubs, Camp tied for the MLB lead with 80 appearances.  He was useful that year, compiling a 3.59 ERA.  Camp's usage may have taken a toll, as his average fastball velocity dropped from 87.6 miles per hour in 2012 to 86.3 in 2013.

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Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Shawn Camp

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Latest On Brian McCann

By Tim Dierkes | November 13, 2013 at 12:22pm CDT

The Rangers are pushing hard for free agent catcher Brian McCann, a baseball source tells Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.  "They're knocking his door down," said Edes' source.

McCann, MLBTR's fourth-ranked free agent this offseason, is also on the radar of at least the Red Sox and Yankees.

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Texas Rangers Brian McCann

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Diamondbacks Interested In Nate Schierholtz

By Tim Dierkes | November 12, 2013 at 11:41pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have interest in trading for Cubs outfielder Nate Schierholtz, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Schierholtz, 30 in February, smacked 21 home runs in 503 plate appearances for the Cubs this year.  In an article Sunday, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic speculated on Schierholtz as a possible fit for the Diamondbacks, who were rumored to have an eye on Cubs righty Jeff Samardzija prior to the trade deadline.

With more than five years of big league service time, Schierholtz is arbitration eligible and under the Cubs' control for one more season.  Matt Swartz has projected a $3.8MM salary for 2014, a $1.55MM raise on Schierholtz's 2013 base salary.  The Cubs inked Schierholtz to a one-year deal in December of last year after he was non-tendered by the Phillies.  They were able to offer him the most playing time of his career while making sure he faced left-handed pitching only 13% of the time.  He responded with a .251/.301/.470 line as the Cubs' primary right fielder.

D'Backs GM Kevin Towers has talked about his desire to add a power-hitting corner outfielder.  Gerardo Parra seems to have one of the team's outfield spots locked down, with Adam Eaton, A.J. Pollock, and Cody Ross also in the mix.  Given Arizona's limited payroll flexibility, Schierholtz could hold extra appeal at less than $4MM.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Chicago Cubs Nate Schierholtz

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Amaro Leaning Toward Tendering Contract To Mayberry

By Tim Dierkes | November 12, 2013 at 5:00pm CDT

Phillies outfielder John Mayberry Jr. has been considered a non-tender candidate in many circles, but even after signing Marlon Byrd, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. seems to be leaning toward retaining him.  "He's not a issue for me.  We haven't made any final decisions. But I'd view him as a tender," Amaro said today of Mayberry, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  Mayberry is eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career, having amassed three years and 95 days of big league service time.

Mayberry, 30 in December, hit .227/.286/.391 in 384 plate appearances this year.  A right-handed hitter, he has continually shown power against southpaws.  Matt Swartz projects him at a $1.7MM salary for 2014.  The Phillies' arbitration class also includes Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Ben Revere, and Kevin Frandsen.

MLBTR published its list of non-tender candidates last Thursday.

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Philadelphia Phillies John Mayberry Jr.

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Latest On The Mariners

By Tim Dierkes | November 12, 2013 at 4:43pm CDT

The Mariners have money to spend and a need for offense.  Yesterday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that the team could be aggressive on free agents Jhonny Peralta, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Napoli.  The latest:

  • The Mariners' reported interest in Jacoby Ellsbury may be overblown, hears ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.  Crasnick wrote earlier than the Ms are more immersed in the Carlos Beltran/Peralta/Kendrys Morales market than in Ellsbury's.  The Mariners would like to find a way to add Cruz and Beltran, tweets Crasnick.  If they are to pull that off, it could be another offseason of disregarding defense, in my opinion.  Signing Cruz and Beltran requires the forfeiture of draft picks, but the Mariners' first rounder is protected.  They would lose their second round pick as well as their Competitive Balance Round B pick (similar to the Indians last winter).
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Seattle Mariners Carlos Beltran Jacoby Ellsbury Nelson Cruz

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Qualifying Offer Decisions

By Tim Dierkes | November 11, 2013 at 2:04pm CDT

13 free agents received qualifying offers a week ago, and I think they are all likely to decline by today's 4pm central time deadline.  If these players sign Major League deals elsewhere, their old teams stand to gain a draft pick in each instance.  The latest:

  • Curtis Granderson is "100 percent" turning down the Yankees' qualifying offer, a person involved in the situation tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).
  • Kendrys Morales will turn down the Mariners' QO, people familiar with the situation tell Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
  • As expected, both Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew will allow the 5pm deadline to pass without accepting qualifying offers from the Red Sox, a baseball source tells Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com (on Twitter).
  • After an MRI on his hips showed no signs of further deterioration, Mike Napoli has decided to decline the Red Sox's qualifying offer, an industry source tells Alex Speier of WEEI.com.
  • Starting pitcher Ervin Santana declined the Royals' qualifying offer, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
  • Catcher Brian McCann will decline his qualifying offer from the Braves today, tweets MLB.com's Mark Bowman.  This was an easy choice for McCann, who has a good chance at a five-year contract.
  • Right fielder Nelson Cruz informed the Rangers he will decline his qualifying offer, tweeted Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram earlier today.
  • You can also keep track of all the qualifying offer decisions using MLBTR's free agent tracker.
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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Kansas City Royals New York Yankees Seattle Mariners Brian McCann Curtis Granderson Ervin Santana Jacoby Ellsbury Kendrys Morales Mike Napoli Stephen Drew

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Free Agent Profile: Juan Uribe

By Tim Dierkes | November 11, 2013 at 1:48pm CDT

Prior to the season, there was speculation the Dodgers could release Juan Uribe, eating the $7MM remaining on his contract just to open up the roster spot after he played at replacement level from 2011-12.  However, Uribe made over 100 starts for the Dodgers in 2013 and was incredibly valuable, posting the fourth-best WAR among all free agents.

USATSI_7360058

Strengths/Pros

Uribe was worth 5.1 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs, a number topped in 2013 by only three other free agents: Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Shin-Soo Choo.  No other position player even came close to Uribe, with Marlon Byrd checking in at 4.1.

How did he do it?  In large part through defense.  Playing mostly third base, Uribe posted a UZR/150 of 35.3 in 900 1/3 innings.  Only four other players exceeded 30 this year, and their defensive excellence is uncontested: Shane Victorino, Juan Lagares, Gerardo Parra, and Manny Machado.  Uribe's hot corner defense is no fluke, as he's posted strong UZR numbers there in each season since '09.  Another stat, defensive runs saved from The Fielding Bible, had Uribe at 15.  That figure was tied for the 15th best in baseball.  The National League Gold Glove at third base went to Nolan Arenado, and rightfully so, but Uribe was one of three finalists along with David Wright.  The Fielding Bible's panel of ten experts ranked Uribe's defense sixth in baseball at third base this year, behind only Arenado in the NL.

Uribe has the versatility to play all around the infield, though it's been a while since he's played anything other than third base regularly.

One reason Uribe was able to pick up 102 starts (and 132 total games) for the Dodgers this year is that he had a solid year with the bat as well.  Uribe hit .278/.331/.438 in 426 plate appearances.  He's always had pop, with a career isolated power mark of .167 and eight seasons of double digit home runs.  He hit a career-best 24 bombs in 2010 with the Giants, leading to his contract with the Dodgers.  This year, Uribe was able to hit for average while also drawing enough walks to create a solid OBP.  Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), which is park and league-adjusted, measures a player's total offensive value against the league average.  Uribe's 116 figure this year means he was 16% better than the league average hitter, and it ranked eighth among third basemen with at least 400 PAs.  By this measure, Uribe had a better year with the bat than Pablo Sandoval, Chase Headley, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Martin Prado, and other starting third basemen.

Uribe made significant contributions to the 2005 White Sox and 2010 Giants, so his pair of World Series rings are well-deserved.  He did not receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers this offseason, so signing him will not involve forfeiting a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

Uribe was a terrible hitter from 2011-12, hitting .199/.262/.289 with six home runs in 474 plate appearances.  His contract looked like a big mistake after the first two years, and he took criticism for being out of shape.  Uribe endured a left hip flexor injury in May 2011, and hit the DL again in July with a similar injury.  In September 2011 he had surgery for a sports hernia, giving hope for a rebound in '12 when he showed up to camp in better shape and healthy again.  However, he hit the DL in May for a wrist injury and was marginalized as the season wore on.  Hanley Ramirez's thumb injury in March 2013 created an opportunity for Uribe to play regularly at third base.  Even after a stellar 2013, no one has any idea how many useful seasons the 34-year-old Uribe has left.

Uribe posted a ridiculous 25.6% walk rate in April this year, settling in at a more Uribe-like 5.0% for the rest of the season.  He also had a .322 batting average on balls in play this year, compared to a career BABIP of .282.  It's reasonable to expect Uribe to draw fewer walks and have fewer hits drop in next year, pulling his OBP down toward his career .299 mark.  Projections suggest Uribe may not even be a league average hitter in 2014.  If he reverts to being a .200 hitter with no power, Uribe may be nothing more than a defensive replacement.

Personal

Juan and his wife Ana reside in the Dominican Republic in the offseason with their four children.  Juan was a second cousin of Jose Uribe, a shortstop who played in the Majors from 1984-1993 and died in a car crash in 2006.  Juan was signed by Rockies scout Jorge Posada, Sr., father of the Yankees catcher, in 1997.  MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez described the signing in this 2010 article.

Uribe is a big hit in the clubhouse.  In 2010, Ann Killion of Sports Illustrated wrote, "Uribe is beloved, always happy, consistently upbeat."  Uribe's teammates have been singing his praises for many years.

Market

The Dodgers may be open to bringing Uribe back on a one-year deal, after the first two years of their initial commitment went so poorly.  Otherwise, a team with unsettled plans in the short-term at third base would make sense for Uribe, which could mean the White Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Angels, Marlins, and Phillies.  I'm not sure if any teams would consider Uribe as a semi-regular second baseman, but in that case the Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Braves, and Rockies could be factors.  Uribe may be best served filling an Eric Chavez type of role, in whom the Yankees, Angels, and Diamondbacks are interested according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  

Uribe benefits from a weak free agent market for third basemen.  He's as much of a starting third baseman as anyone else in the group.

Expected Contract

The question with Uribe: one year or two?  On one hand, the bar for a two-year deal is quite low.  Utility infielders and other part-time players routinely get two years, and Uribe's performance in 2013 suggests he can contribute regularly.  On the other hand, Uribe's contract with the Dodgers three years ago was the first multiyear pact of his career, and the first two years went horribly.  In the end, I think Uribe will get a two-year, $12MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Profiles Los Angeles Dodgers Juan Uribe

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Orioles Intrigued By Tim Hudson

By Tim Dierkes | November 11, 2013 at 12:42pm CDT

The Orioles are intrigued by free agent starter Tim Hudson and have discussed him internally, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  The 38-year-old righty fits the Orioles' profile, and the O's have Braves connections in recent hires Dave Wallace and Dom Chiti.

The Orioles will keep close tabs on Hudson, reports Kubatko, as he recovers from this summer's season-ending ankle surgery.  Hudson, profiled by MLBTR's Steve Adams here, has already drawn interest from the Rockies, Giants, Red Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Indians, and Royals among others, plus the Braves would like to re-sign him.  Yahoo's Jeff Passan has suggested a two-year, $24MM deal for Hudson, who will benefit from the smaller requirement to sign him compared to the market's younger starters, plus the lack of a qualifying offer.

The Orioles are not likely to pursue Scott Kazmir, notes Kubatko.  The O's have four starters penciled in for 2014: Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen, and Bud Norris.  Scott Feldman and Jason Hammel are now free agents after contributing to the Orioles' rotation in 2013.

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Baltimore Orioles Scott Kazmir Tim Hudson

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Angels Sign Wade LeBlanc

By Tim Dierkes | November 11, 2013 at 12:04pm CDT

The Angels signed lefty Wade LeBlanc to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, according to the team's director of communications Eric Kay.  LeBlanc, 29, posted a 5.40 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, and 39.1% groundball rate for the Marlins and Astros this year in 55 innings.

LeBlanc joined the Marlins a year ago from the Padres in a swap for catcher John Baker.  The Fish designated him for assignment in June, after which the Astros claimed him off waivers.  The Astros designated him a few weeks later, ultimately outrighting him to Triple-A.  He found his way back up, but was again designated and outrighted in August.

LeBlanc was drafted by the Padres in the second round in 2006 out of the University of Alabama.  The soft-tosser once projected as a future number three starter, but will now serve as Triple-A depth for the Halos.  He'll join Chris Volstad, signed by the Angels to a minor league deal last week.

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Los Angeles Angels Transactions Wade LeBlanc

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