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Trade Market For Starting Pitchers

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Two prominent mid-rotation starters have already been dealt this month, with the Orioles acquiring Scott Feldman (and giving up another starter in Jake Arrieta) and the Dodgers picking up Ricky Nolasco.  The Red Sox, Indians, Rangers, Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers could be in the hunt for starting pitching, with other contenders potentially jumping in on the better names.  Let's see what the market offers as the July 31st trade deadline approaches.

Rentals

Matt Garza (Cubs), Tim Lincecum (Giants), Josh Johnson (Blue Jays), Phil Hughes (Yankees), Jason Marquis (Padres), Edinson Volquez (Padres), Erik Bedard (Astros), Aaron Harang (Mariners), Mike Pelfrey (Twins), Joe Saunders (Mariners)

These available starting pitchers will be free agents after the season.  Garza appears a lock to be dealt, and seems likely to command a top 50 prospect or equivalent young player as the centerpiece.  With over $7MM remaining at the deadline, trading Lincecum would be complicated.  Johnson and Hughes would likely generate solid interest on the market.

Controllable Starters

Yovani Gallardo (Brewers), Kyle Lohse (Brewers), Bud Norris (Astros), Joe Blanton (Angels), Kevin Correia (Twins), Lucas Harrell (Astros), Barry Zito (Giants), Kevin Slowey (Marlins), Carlos Villanueva (Cubs), John Danks (White Sox), Vance Worley (Twins), James McDonald (Pirates), Alfredo Aceves (Red Sox), Ricky Romero (Blue Jays)

All of these players can be controlled beyond 2013 given their contracts or arbitration status, not that teams would necessarily be thrilled by the prospect.  Gallardo and Norris seem to be the names to watch here.

Currently On The DL

Jake Peavy (White Sox), Jason Vargas (Angels)

Peavy is projected to return from a displaced rib fracture Saturday against the Braves, so he could make three starts to prove his health prior to the deadline.  He's under contract for next year, and would jump to the top of the short list of potential difference-makers.  Vargas had surgery to remove a blood clot in his left armpit and is expected to return before the deadline.

Other Possibilities

Cliff Lee (Phillies), James Shields (Royals), Ervin Santana (Royals), Jeremy Guthrie (Royals), R.A. Dickey (Blue Jays), Jeff Samardzija (Cubs)

These pitchers are not currently believed to be available, but it wouldn't be a total shock to see one of them traded this month.  Lee is the best pitcher named in this post, though he has no-trade protection and is owed more than $70MM through 2015.  The Royals probably are not inclined to gut their rotation, though it would make sense to entertain offers for Santana if they are beyond the value of a supplemental round draft pick, as he is eligible for free agency after the season.  Dickey and Samardzija are controllable beyond this year, but it would be silly for their teams not to listen.

For the large-salaried players such as Lincecum, Danks, and Zito, keep in mind that trades can happen in August as well if they clear waivers or are claimed.

Check out our other posts in the trade market series here.

Strong Interest In Michael Young

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"Intense trade interest" in infielder Michael Young might compel the Phillies to trade him despite indications the team doesn't plan to sell, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  He says the Red Sox and Yankees are among about a dozen teams that have checked in on Young.

I still think Young, a 36-year-old hitting .288/.344/.414, would bring a modest return.  Rosenthal says the Phillies have no obvious internal replacement for him, though I wonder if utility man Kevin Frandsen is capable of delivering similar production in a regular role.  The Phillies are currently 5.5 games out in the wild card, and seek a center fielder and bullpen help.

Travis Ishikawa To Elect Free Agency

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SATURDAY: Ishikawa cleared waivers and will elect free agency, MLBTR has learned.

THURSDAY: The Yankees designated first baseman Travis Ishikawa for assignment to open a roster spot for Derek Jeter, they announced today.  Ishikawa, who received only two plate appearances with the Yankees, is expected to go on waivers today, MLBTR has learned.  Jeter makes his season debut tonight following his long recovery from ankle surgery, batting second at designated hitter.

Ishikawa, 29, received most of his playing time with the Orioles' Triple-A club, hitting .316/.413/.525 in 208 plate appearances.  He had signed a minor league deal with Baltimore and was added to the big league club upon reaching his opt-out date.  He was designated for assignment and claimed off waivers by the Yankees shortly thereafter given their lack of depth at first base after Mark Teixeira's season ended.

2014 Free Agent Power Rankings

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The MLB season is around 56% over, and it's time for a fresh set of 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings prior to the July 31st trade deadline.  Our previous installment was published June 4th.  You can check out our full list of 2014 free agents here.

1.  Robinson Cano.  "Scott Boras, you over baby. Robinson Cano, you coming with me," raps Jay-Z about his lone baseball client on "Crown."  Roc Nation Sports may only have one baseball client at present, but he happens to be the offseason's top free agent by a mile.  Cano, 31 in October, sits at .299/.380/.537 with 21 home runs and 62 RBI through Wednesday.

2.  Jacoby Ellsbury.  Ellsbury, who is with Boras, is hitting .379/.439/.515 in 192 plate appearances since May 21st and has reclaimed the #2 spot.  He's shown no ill effects from a recent minor wrist issue.  If he stays relatively healthy, he may finish with 100 runs scored and his second career 60-steal season.

3.  Shin-Soo Choo.  Also a Boras client, Choo is second in the National League with a .418 OBP.  It wasn't enough to get him his first All-Star nod, but he's in good shape for a sizeable four-year deal.

4.  Brian McCann.  McCann now has almost 200 plate appearances since returning from offseason shoulder surgery, and he's hitting a strong .294/.371/.518.  I imagine he'll be seeking at least four years as well.

5.  Matt Garza.  Our first change since the last rankings, as Garza moves up a spot.  He's now provided the Cubs with ten starts and 64 1/3 strong innings this year, and has the rest of the season to further solidify his health.  A trade this month appears a near-certainty, meaning Garza will not be linked to draft pick compensation in the offseason.  I consider Anibal Sanchez money (five years, $80MM) to be his ceiling.

6.  Hiroki Kuroda.  Kuroda recently experienced tightness in his hip flexor, but he only missed one start.  He's third in the AL with a 2.77 ERA, and even at 39 next year he'll get big dollars on a short-term deal.  

7.  Carlos Beltran.  Beltran doesn't have youth on his side either, but he seems past the injury issues of 2009-10.  With a .309/.347/.534 line, 19 home runs, and 52 RBI, he'll start in the All-Star game.

8.  Ervin Santana.  A new entrant to this list, Santana is eighth in the AL with 123 innings and is making the Royals look smart for acquiring him (despite a rough outing today).  I'm not convinced he's a different pitcher than what he was in Los Angeles, but he should be a popular mid-rotation free agent arm.

9.  Josh Johnson.  Since coming off the DL June 4th, Johnson has a 3.54 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 1.11 HR/9 in seven starts.  He should have at least a dozen more starts to continue bringing his stock back up after missing over a month with a triceps injury.  The Blue Jays, currently eight games out in the wild card, can help his stock by trading him and removing the qualifying offer issue.

10.  Nelson Cruz.  Cruz is tied for fifth in the AL with 22 home runs, and has a shot at his first 40 home run season.  Biogenesis is a looming issue, with a potential 50-game suspension likely to be served at the start of his next contract (if he is indeed suspended).  I imagine his suitors would prefer to let that situation play out before determining what kind of contract to offer the 33-year-old slugger.

A.J. Burnett, Hunter Pence, and Mike Napoli were bumped out of the top ten this time around, while Chase Utley and Tim Lincecum just missed returning to it.  The top five appears to be solidifying, while the rest may shift around quite a bit in the coming months.  

Blue Jays Do Not Expect To Sign First-Rounder Bickford

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3:30pm: Jim Callis of Baseball America spoke with a person who is "in the know" on the Bickford situation and confirmed that Bickford is likely to attend Cal State Fullerton. Callis adds that it's not a physical issue preventing Bickford from signing and reminds readers that Bickford's pre-draft asking price was $4.25MM (Twitter links).

Callis also tweets that it's starting to look like the Jays won't sign 11th-round pick Jake Brentz, who was regarded as a second- or third-round talent. Baseball America had ranked Brentz 80th among draft prospects, while ESPN's Keith Law ranked him 45th. Brentz is committed to the University of Missouri. As Callis notes, the Blue Jays may only spend about $2MM on this year's draft.

10:36am: The Blue Jays do not expect to sign first-round pick Phil Bickford, GM Alex Anthopoulos told reporters including broadcaster Mike Wilner (Twitter link).  The issue is not money, adds Wilner.

The Blue Jays drafted Bickford, a hard-throwing prep righty, tenth overall.  He was a late riser on draft boards.  In their scouting report, Baseball America noted that Bickford "could be a tough sign away from Cal State Fullerton."  The Jays will receive the 11th overall pick as compensation next year if they fail to sign Bickford by tomorrow's 4pm central time deadline.  The Blue Jays are believed to have offered the slot value of $2,921,400, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Toronto previously failed to sign their first-round pick in 2011, Tyler Beede, as well as supplemental round pick James Paxton in '09.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Minor Moves: Jeremy Bonderman, Aaron Laffey

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On this date ten years ago, the Marlins were making a surprising wild card push and traded for one of the best available relievers, Rangers closer Ugueth Urbina.  Double-A first baseman Adrian Gonzalez was part of the package going to Texas.  The first overall pick by the Marlins three years prior, Gonzalez began the year at Triple-A following offseason wrist surgery, but had been demoted to Double-A in May.  Said Marlins GM Larry Beinfest at the time, "In Adrian, we thought we were dealing in an area of strength, but we wanted to do something now."  Beinfest was referring to first basemen Derrek Lee and Jason Stokes.  The Marlins installed Urbina in a setup role and went on to win the World Series.  John Hart was the man behind the Urbina signing and trade as Rangers GM.  

Two years later, Hart stepped down to make way for the youngest GM in MLB history, 28-year-old Jon Daniels.  Daniels later admitted to WEEI's Alex Speier his new front office "tried to step on the gas before we were ready," and with Mark Teixeira entrenched at first base, Gonzalez, Terrmel Sledge, and Chris Young were traded to the Padres for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.  Today's minor moves, as we ponder the status of Urbina's comeback attempt…

  • Jeremy Bonderman has refused an outright assignment from the Mariners and elected free agency, the team announced. He was designated for assignment on Monday. In 38 1/3 innings for Seattle this season, the 30-year-old posted a 4.93 ERA with more walks (17) than strikeouts (16). It was his first MLB action since 2010 and the only time he has pitched for a team other than the Tigers.
  • The Brewers signed lefty Aaron Laffey, announced the team's player development department on Twitter early today.  The 28-year-old signed a minor league deal with the Mets in December, was designated for assignment in April, claimed by the Blue Jays, designated days later, elected free agency, was signed by the Dodgers, and opted out of his deal with that club earlier this month.  He made five big league appearances this year, and also tossed 61 Triple-A innings for the Dodgers, with much more success on the road than at Isotopes Park.  There is no opt-out in the Brewers deal, MLBTR has learned.
  • Five players currently reside in DFA limbo: Travis Ishikawa of the Yankees, Joe Gardner of the Rockies, Cole Gillespie of the Giants, Jeremy Bonderman of the Mariners, and Adam Rosales of the Athletics.  The Mets asked for unconditional release waivers for Brandon Lyon on Tuesday.

Marlins To Sign First-Rounder Colin Moran

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The Marlins and No. 6 overall draft pick Colin Moran have agreed to terms for the full slot bonus of $3,516,500, tweets Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. MLB.com's Joe Frisaro adds that completion of a physical is the only step remaining in the signing process (Twitter link). Moran is advised by Excel Sports Management.  Moran

The 20-year-old Moran was one of the most highly touted prospects heading into this season's draft when he ranked sixth among draft prospects according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, seventh according to Baseball America and ninth according to ESPN's Keith Law.

Aside from No. 2 overall selection Kris Bryant, Moran was thought to be the best college bat in the class. Mayo wrote that Moran is a polished hitter who should be able to stay at third base long-term and grow into some more power. Law praised his discipline, noting his "absurd" strikeout-to-walk ratio (he finished with 55 walks and just 20 strikeouts in 60 games), but raised some questions about his unorthodox swing.

Moran is the first college bat that the Marlins have taken with their top pick since they selected Mark Kotsay out of Cal State Fullerton in 1996 (they did select Chris Coghlan out of Ole Miss in the supplemental first round in 2006). Moran is just the eighth college player the Marlins have selected in the first round in franchise history, dating back to 1992.

Now that Moran has agreed to terms with the Marlins, the only question mark for tomorrow's 4pm central time signing deadline is Blue Jays pick Phil Bickford.

MLB.com's Joe Frisaro first reported that a deal was close and could be completed Thursday.

Steve Adams contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reliever Trade Talk: Parnell, Red Sox, Giants

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The Twins and Mets "should learn from the mistake the Royals made with Joakim Soria," writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, and trade closers Glen Perkins and Bobby Parnell.  Cameron's argument is convincing: "Relievers, even really good young relievers, should be viewed as ripe fruit. They are great for a while, but you don’t store ripe fruit for the future planning on having a healthy snack later. You consume it now or waste it."  The latest from around the relief trade market:

Rangers Expressed Interest In Aoki

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The Rangers have expressed interest in Brewers outfielder Norichika Aoki during talks with the Brewers about starter Yovani Gallardo, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Aoki has a cheap $1.5MM club option for 2014, so it's unclear whether the Brewers will move him.

Aoki, 31, joined the Brewers in January 2012 after they won the rights to negotiate with him from Japan's Yakult Swallows for $2.5MM.  This year he's hitting .298/.366/.378 in 379 plate appearances, trading power for a slightly higher OBP as opposed to last year.  He's an underpaid high-contact player who can handle all three outfield positions.

Gallardo, meanwhile, takes on another team that covets him in the Diamondbacks tonight.  Some scouts see Gallardo as a No. 4 starter in the American League, maybe a 3 in the NL, writes Danny Knobler of CBS Sports.  The Rangers recently lost ace Yu Darvish to the DL for a strained trapezius muscle, which is currently considered a minor issue.

Michael Weiner Condemns Biogenesis Leaks

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Reporters continue to dig up details on the Biogenesis story, and MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner doesn't like it.  In a statement issue today, Weiner said, "The leaking of confidential information to members of the media interferes with the thoroughness and credibility of the Biogenesis investigation.  These repeated leaks threaten to harm the integrity of the Joint Drug Agreement and call into question the required level of confidentiality needed to operate a successful prevention program."

Weiner later added, "It would be unfortunate if anyone prejudged the results of the investigation based on unsubstantiated leaks that are a clear violation of the Joint Drug Agreement."  The latest report came from T.J. Quinn and Mike Fish of ESPN, who wrote, "Commissioner Bud Selig's office is expected to suspend Ryan Braun and Alex Rodriguez Rodriguez, along with as many as 20 players sometime after next week's All-Star break, for their roles in the Biogenesis case."

The big question: how will the inevitable appeals play out for those players?  FanGraphs' Wendy Thurm wondered today if Selig himself might be the only person hearing appeals and making the final decision, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes,"All would be heard by a single arbitrator, Fredric Horowitz."  Horowitz was appointed baseball's arbitrator last summer after Shyam Das was fired.  Rosenthal pictures a drawn-out appeals process.  Furthermore, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press wrote today, "Lengthy proceedings make it nearly a certainty most, if not all, suspensions would be served in 2014."

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