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Cliff Lee Trade Unlikely

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TUESDAY, 1:04pm: The Phillies have halted all trade talk involving Lee, tweets Stark.

MONDAY, 4:06pm: Philadelphia's discussions with Texas about Lee have all but ended, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark (via Buster Olney on Twitter).  A trade sending Lee back to Texas is "not going to happen," Stark reports (on Twitter).  Such a trade would be complicated and may be easier to complete during the offseason.  Talks between the Rangers and Phillies never gained momentum, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes (Twitter link).  The Phillies offered Texas little salary relief.

1:00pm: The Dodgers are not in on Lee, hears Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  The Rangers consider Lee a long shot, while an industry source who spoke to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan puts the chances at less than one percent.

11:29am: Cliff Lee is in play in trade talks today, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  Olney considers the Rangers the most logical landing spot, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post names them the frontrunners.  Olney says the Yankees are not expected to be in the mix due to lack of budget space.  Sherman talked to one executive who expects Lee to be dealt by this month's deadline or in the offseason, to allow the Phillies to save money and add young players.  On Friday, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote that the Phillies' lefty would not be traded this month.

Lee, 33, has a 3.95 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9, and 46.7% groundball rate in 118 1/3 innings this year.  More flyballs are leaving the yard and hits are dropping in than usual so far for the southpaw.  Lee's five-year, $120MM deal with the Phillies was one of the big surprises of the 2010-11 offseason.  It's a severely backloaded contract, so $95MM remains through 2015 assuming Lee's 2016 option does not vest.  Lee can block trades to all but eight teams.  The Rangers and Yankees are among those eight, wrote Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports last Wednesday.  At that time, Rosenthal and Morosi wrote that some executives expected the Phillies to consider offers for Lee this month, not long after they locked up Cole Hamels long-term.

Lee has already been involved in four blockbuster trades in his career: as a prospect in June '02 to the Indians, as an ace to the Phillies in July '09, to the Mariners in the 2009-10 offseason, and to the Rangers in July '10.

Latest On Shin-Soo Choo

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The Indians think it's unlikely they'll trade right fielder Shin-Soo Choo, tweeted ESPN's Buster Olney this morning.  Olney says a Choo trade would require the perfect offer, which fits with yesterday's report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the Tribe would need a good Major Leaguer with less than three years of service.  Yesterday we heard that the Pirates, Rangers, and Reds have interest in Choo, but a deal with the Rangers isn't happening.  The latest on Choo:

Heyman On Morneau, Dodgers, Athletics, Mets

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The latest from Jon Heyman of CBS Sports:

  • The Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Giants "appear to have some interest" in Twins first baseman Justin Morneau.  Heyman notes that the Dodgers are looking at many offensive options, possibly as many as 10.  Morneau, 31, has somewhat bounced back to a .260/.322/.457 line after a 2011 season lost to concussion symptoms and other injuries.  He has $5MM in salary remaining this year and is owed $14MM in 2013.
  • The Athletics' top two choices for a shortstop upgrade are still Stephen Drew of the Diamondbacks and Yunel Escobar of the Blue Jays.  The A's remain interested in Padres third baseman Chase Headley as well, but Heyman finds a match unlikely.
  • The Mets have talked about Geovany Soto of the Cubs, Kelly Shoppach of the Red Sox, and Ramon Hernandez of the Rockies, but the prices are too high on these catchers.  Heyman says the Mets may be willing to delay their catcher search until the winter.

Projected 2013 Salaries For Pence, Choo, Headley

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You may remember Matt Swartz from such MLBTR projects as the 2012 arbitration projections.  Matt's model was very accurate the first time through, and he's made it even better for the 2013 projections.  I asked Matt for a sneak peek at 2013 projected salaries for some arbitration eligible trade candidates.  He used Dan Szymborski's rest-of-season ZiPS projections to account for the remainder of the 2012 season.

Westbrook Intends To Exercise Option After Season

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Cardinals righty Jake Westbrook "fully intends on exercising his half of mutual option for '13" after the season, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, but the pitcher has no idea what the Cardinals will do.  Westbrook's contract, signed in November of 2010, includes an $8.5MM mutual option for 2013 with a $1MM buyout if the club declines and no buyout if the player declines.

Given Westbrook's solid 2012 performance, this could be one of the rare mutual options where both sides are exercised.  The 34-year-old owns a 3.61 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9, and 57.7% groundball rate in 127 innings this year.

Passan On Beckett, Marlins, Headley, Pence

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Yahoo's Jeff Passan posted his latest information in an early-morning column; here are a few highlights.

  • Passan already noted that the Red Sox contacted the Braves and Rangers shopping Josh Beckett; in this article he mentions that the Sox shopped Beckett in the offseason as well.  WEEI's Rob Bradford also reports Beckett discussions between the Red Sox and Rangers and that Boston has engaged other clubs on the righty.  This morning, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted that the Red Sox talked to a handful of teams that inquired about their starting pitching, including Beckett, but a trade is unlikely.  ESPN's Buster Olney also considers a Beckett trade unlikely.
  • The Marlins are far more concerned about their club beyond 2013 as opposed to 2013 itself, executives who have inquired on Josh Johnson told Passan.  Those sources say the Marlins plan to cut payroll next year, after this year's franchise high, and thus seek cheap, young players.
  • The Padres expect to decide today whether they'll trade third baseman Chase Headley this month, a source tells Passan.  Headley, who is under team control through 2014, projects to earn $6.1MM for '13, according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.  The Padres are growing more leery of trading Headley, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post, a sentiment we've been seeing the last several days from other reports.  Sherman does not believe there was much life to talks between the Yankees and Padres about Headley.
  • The Phillies haven't shopped Shane Victorino nearly as aggressively as Hunter Pence, writes Passan.  Swartz projects Pence at $14.3MM for 2013.

Disqus 2012 Enabled For Comments

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You may have noticed that we have enabled Disqus 2012 for the commenting section here at MLBTR.  It includes real-time commenting, up and down-voting of comments, and a bunch of other stuff.  You can check out all the features here.  We welcome your feedback on Disqus 2012 in the comments section of this post.  By the way, if you want to continue to see the oldest comments first, choose that under the Discussion dropdown.

Quick Hits: Sheets, Athletics, Twins

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After missing two years due to elbow injuries, righty Ben Sheets made a triumphant comeback start today as a member of the Braves, tossing six scoreless innings against the Mets for the win.  Should Sheets manage a dozen decent starts for the Braves, the minor league signing will stand as a shrewd under-the-radar move by GM Frank Wren.  Today's shrewd, under-the-radar links:

  • "I feel like myself. That's one thing I can say I never felt like in Oakland," Sheets told reporters today including Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  Sheets signed a one-year, $10MM contract with the A's prior to the 2010 season despite missing all of '09.
  • "It's just as necessary for the Yankees to have young players with a few years of control as it is for the Twins or the A's," GM Billy Beane explained to Tyler Kepner of the New York Times yesterday.  The A's GM has been trading away players further from free agency lately, but this year Beane's club is surprisingly in the mix for a wild card spot.
  • Scouts from the Yankees, Blue Jays, Braves, Mets, Reds, Padres and Nationals have attended recent Francisco Liriano starts, report Phil Mackey and Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com, though some of those clubs may have had other interests.  Slugger Josh Willingham would require a lopsided offer and seems likely to stay put, as we've heard before.  Willingham is signed through 2014 and is interested in staying with the Twins beyond his current contract.
  • Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer had Mike Trout second on his board for the 2009 draft, after only Stephen Strasburg, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News.  The Angels had two consecutive picks at 24 and 25, with the Yankees at 29, and Oppenheimer thought he might get Trout once the Halos took another high school outfielder in Randal Grichuk at 24.  Of course, Angels scouting director Eddie Bane took Trout at 25.  Trout told Harper he's motivated by all the teams that passed on him.
  • The Diamondbacks signed Dominican shortstop Sergio Alcantara, according to Baseball America's Ben Badler.  BA says Alcantara draws praise for his defense, and the D'Backs had been favored to sign him.  BA ranked Alcantara 18th overall in the July 2nd class.

Mariners Aim To Retain Ichiro

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Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik expects to keep right fielder Ichiro Suzuki past the July 31st trade deadline, and also expects the 38-year-old back with the team in 2013, he told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Ichiro remains a "franchise player" in Zduriencik's eyes despite a .260/.286/.348 line so far in 2012.  Ichiro seems to be entering the most difficult phase of a superstar's career, coming up for a new contract as his game declines across the board.  I imagine his $17MM salary would have to be more than cut in half, but if Ichiro's struggles continue, even a starting role will be a debatable choice.

As for Felix Hernandez, Zduriencik continued to hammer home the ace's unavailability.  Instead, Morosi reminds of us Jason Vargas' trade candidacy, noting that "Zduriencik is expected to look for offense in return" for the lefty.

Trade Targets Who Could Bring Draft Pick Compensation

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Recently, Joel Sherman of the New York Post talked to an NL GM who said he does not expect a robust market for rental players this summer.  Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, players acquired in their contract years could still be more than rentals due to draft pick compensation.  But due to a rule in the new CBA, a rental is truly a rental for the 2012 trade deadline: traded players are not eligible for draft pick compensation.  As Sherman notes, that adds extra appeal for someone like Matt Garza — a team acquiring Garza can enjoy him for the rest of 2012 and all of 2013 and then receive a draft pick as compensation if he departs as a free agent.

Keep in mind that for a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent after the 2012 season, a qualifying offer in the $12.5MM range must be tendered.  Since that amount represents an average of the top 125 salaries, it will increase every year.  It could be dangerous to surrender quality prospects for Garza now partly due to the assumption that he'll be worthy of a $13-14MM qualifying offer after the 2013 season.

Still, take a look at our list of players who, like Garza, project to be eligible for free agency after the 2013 season.  Which could be acquired with a partial eye on draft pick compensation after '13?  Chase Utley has a good amount of no-trade protection, and given time missed due to injury and reduced production, it'd be optimistic to expect a qualifying offer.  Hunter Pence, on the other hand, is a decent bet for such an offer.  Among position players, Corey Hart also has a shot.  Both outfielders figure to be part of their team's 2013 plans, however.

Aside from Garza, Josh Johnson is a starting pitcher to consider.  Johnson has been uncharacteristically hittable this year, but he has been healthy and stands as a candidate for a qualifying offer after '13, should the Marlins decline to extend him again.  Despite their all-in offseason, the Marlins appear a long shot for the playoffs, it is possible they could move Johnson for MLB-ready players.  Jason Vargas has been a hot name on the trade market.  While I think GMs would find it appealing to control Vargas for 2013, I doubt they would have any expectation of making him a qualifying offer afterward.

We haven't discussed Justin Upton types, players who are under control beyond 2013 and seem to be reasonable candidates for future draft pick compensation.  Those are rare players.  Looking only at trade targets eligible for free agency after 2013, the qualifying offer will be a pretty high bar, and future draft pick compensation can't be a primary consideration for an acquiring team. 

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