Arbitration Eligibles: Kansas City Royals
The Royals are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Blake Wood ($600K)
- Second time: Chris Getz ($1.2MM)
- Third time: Luke Hochevar ($4.4MM), Felipe Paulino ($2.7MM), Brayan Pena ($1.1MM)
In Wood and Paulino, the Royals have a pair of promising pitchers who endured Tommy John surgery this year. Both are worth retaining (Wood seems likely to garner Super Two status). Despite a myriad of injuries, Getz worked his way into a starting role for the Royals at second base toward the end of his season. I expect the team to keep him in the mix.
Hochevar, drafted first overall in 2006, has a 5.39 ERA through 771 big league innings, including a 5.73 mark this year. If you're digging for a silver lining, the 29-year-old throws relatively hard, takes the ball every fifth day, and has exhibited skills suggesting an ERA closer to 4.20. Given Hochevar's maddening flashes of brilliance, it seems the Royals are up for another go-round at our estimated $4.4MM salary.
The offensive promise once shown by Pena seems long gone. Still, the 30-year-old Cuban wants to retire a Royal, and it won't require much of a raise to keep him around as Salvador Perez's backup for 2013. Assuming everyone is retained in the Royals' group, we're projecting $10MM in salary for five arbitration eligible players.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.
Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres
The Padres are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. With a dozen players, they have one of the largest arbitration groups. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Everth Cabrera ($1.2MM), Kyle Blanks ($600K)
- Second time: John Baker ($900K), Luke Gregerson ($3.2MM), Joe Thatcher ($1.1MM), Clayton Richard ($5MM), Will Venable ($2.5MM)
- Third time: Dustin Moseley ($2MM), Chase Headley ($8.3MM), Micah Owings ($1.2MM), Tim Stauffer ($3.2MM), Edinson Volquez ($4.6MM)
In Moseley, Owings, Stauffer, and Blanks, the Padres have four arbitration eligible players who barely played in 2012 due to injury. Moseley had April shoulder surgery and is likely to be cut loose. Owings, who wants to focus on being a position player, had elbow surgery in July and is another likely non-tender.
Paying Stauffer $3.2MM again would be risky given his August 31st surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his elbow. Padres manager Bud Black told MLB.com's Corey Brock Stauffer will be "ready to go by Spring Training," but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be tendered a contract next month. The 30-year-old had a breakout 2011 season and was ticketed for the 2012 Opening Day nod, so clearly there's talent here. The ideal scenario for the Padres would be to non-tender Stauffer and then quickly re-sign him for less guaranteed money. Failing that, they could tender him a contract and, if things look bleak in Spring Training, cut him then and owe about $530K.
Blanks had been ticketed for the minors, in which case he would not have been arbitration eligible, but he found his way onto the Padres' 25-man roster due to Carlos Quentin's injury. Blanks quickly went down with season-ending shoulder surgery, but the 26-year-old is still interesting and cheap enough that the Padres wouldn't be risking much by tendering him a contract and seeing how he looks in Spring Training.
Baker seems a capable backup catcher, and he actually caught as many games for the Padres as Yasmani Grandal and Nick Hundley this year. Grandal is the clear starter for 2013, and Hundley might have first track at the backup job given the $7MM guaranteed to him through 2014. The Padres still seem likely to retain Baker, so maybe Hundley will become trade bait.
Richard and Volquez emerged as the leaders of the Padres' rotation this year and are locked in for 2013. Volquez, the more explosive pitcher of the pair, will be entering his walk year and would like to remain with the club beyond 2013. He seems to prevent home runs and hits enough to survive in Petco despite an MLB-leading walk total. Richard might be Volquez's mirror image, with a stellar walk rate and MLB-worst hits allowed total. I wouldn't attempt to lock up either pitcher at this point.
Relievers Thatcher and Gregerson had solid campaigns, with Gregerson picking up nine saves and 24 holds. Thatcher will soon undergo knee surgery that could have him behind in Spring Training, but I see no reason the Padres wouldn't keep him around. Venable did a nice job as the team's primary right fielder, especially away from Petco. Cabrera provided value on the basepaths, and while the rest of his game is lacking, he'll be tendered a contract as an expected Super Two player.
Near the trade deadline, a Headley deal was actually considered likely, but GM Josh Byrnes wisely kept his asking price high. The 28-year-old third baseman stayed with the Padres and went off in the season's final two months, to a point where MVP votes would be justified. Matt Swartz has Headley, a client of Hendricks Sports, snagging nearly a $5MM raise en route to an $8.3MM salary. Headley qualified as a Super Two player in 2010, so this will be his third time through arbitration and he'll have one more after that.
Headley's agency hasn't done many arbitration year extensions in recent years, though Byrnes is no stranger to such contracts. Though the Padres' GM might prefer to use some 2013 data to determine whether Headley is an MVP-caliber player or more of an above-average regular, the price goes up the longer he waits. One potential comparable is Kevin Youkilis, who signed a four-year, $41.25MM deal with the Red Sox after a breakout '08 season, also with four-plus years of service. A more recent comp might be Alex Gordon's four-year deal, worth $50MM if he exercises a player option at the end.
Assuming Moseley, Owings, and Stauffer are non-tendered and no one signs a multiyear extension, we're estimating $27.4MM in salary for nine remaining arbitration eligible players.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.
Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Josh Kinney ($700K), John Jaso ($1.7MM)
- Second time: Shawn Kelley ($900K)
- Third time: Jason Vargas ($7.4MM), Brendan Ryan ($2.3MM)
At 1.45 per nine innings, Vargas' home run rate ranked seventh-worst in baseball among qualified starters this year. With the Mariners moving their fences in for 2013, Vargas' gopheritis could become an even larger problem at a time when his salary is expected to exceed $7MM. On the surface, his 2012 performance of a 3.85 ERA in 217 1/3 innings seems like it'd have mild trade value even at our projected salary. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks were unable to find a trade partner for a similar pitcher in Joe Saunders in advance of last year's non-tender deadline and chose to cut him loose. Saunders had a higher projected salary than Vargas does, but Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik will have to make a tough decision by the November 30th non-tender deadline.
Ryan, the Mariners' starting shortstop, finished a multiyear deal and projects at a fairly modest raise through arbitration. His offense was worse than ever this year, but his unparalleled glovework coupled with the team's lack of an MLB-ready replacement should compel the Mariners to keep him around.
Jaso, Kelley, and Kinney should be in good standing for 2013. Relievers Kelley and Kinney both spent time in the minors this year, but each whiffed more than a batter per inning in the bigs and should earn less than a million bucks.
Center fielder Michael Saunders falls one day short of the projected Super Two cutoff. If he were to snag Super Two status, we project him for $1.6MM.
Assuming Kinney, Jaso, Kelly, Vargas, and Ryan are retained, we're estimating a $13MM commitment for five arbitration eligible players.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts. For more on the Mariners' offseason outlook, read Ben Nicholson-Smith's recent article.
Arbitration Eligibles: Minnesota Twins
The Twins are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Drew Butera ($500K), Brian Duensing ($1.3MM)
- Second time: None
- Third time: Jared Burton ($2.1MM), Alexi Casilla ($1.8MM)
Burton, signed to a minor league deal last November, was a bright spot this year for the Twins. He picked up 18 holds and five saves and will be a key member of next year's bullpen. Unless the MLBPA's projected Super Two cutoff of two years and 139 days proves high, reliever Alex Burnett will fall a few days short and can be renewed at the minimum salary. Otherwise, we estimate an $800K salary.
The remaining three arbitration eligible Twins should be considered non-tender candidates. Duensing probably has the best shot at sticking around, even if he's better off relieving (3.47 ERA) than starting (6.92 ERA). Casilla played his way out of the Twins' starting second base job and may be cut loose. As a third catcher with no offensive skills, Butera's time on a 40-man roster will be up soon.
Assuming Burton and Duensing are tendered contracts, the Twins would be looking at an estimated $3.4MM for two arbitration eligible players.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts. For more on the Twins' offseason outlook, read Ben Nicholson-Smith's recent article.
Arbitration Eligibles: Houston Astros
The Astros kick off our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Bud Norris ($2.9MM), Wilton Lopez ($1.4MM), Wesley Wright ($900K)
- Second time: Jed Lowrie ($1.9MM), Edgar Gonzalez ($800K)
Norris, 27, authored an uneven season leading up to his first arbitration year. He posted a stellar 1.71 home ERA versus 6.94 on the road, for an overall 4.65 platform year ERA that won't lead to big arbitration bucks. Norris also comes up short on wins, another important stat for pitchers in arbitration. He's won only 28 of 97 career starts, but at least gets credit for the innings. Other first-time starters such as Doug Fister and Mike Leake will come into play for Norris' arbitration discussions. Beyond his 2013 salary, the broader question is whether Astros GM Jeff Luhnow will attempt to extent Norris at some point. Prior to this season, Luhnow told Milo Hamilton Norris was "a critical part of the plan moving forward."
The Astros acquired Lowrie as part of the Mark Melancon trade with Boston in December of last year, and the shortstop stayed true to his history of solid production in injury-shortened seasons. To be fair, the 28-year-old's injuries have mostly been freakish in nature, and Luhnow noted in a June MLB.com chat, "while I’d never say anyone is untradeable, he’s not likely to go anywhere for a while…or longer!" Though Lowrie has just 353 games under his belt, he has racked up big league service time, so he'll be eligible for free agency after 2014. This offseason would be a fine time for Luhnow to hammer out a team-friendly extension. Yunel Escobar's contract might be a good model, but with less guaranteed money.
The Astros also have a pair of first-time relievers on the docket in Lopez and Wright, and both should be affordable in lieu of big saves or holds totals. Lopez can ramp up his salary dramatically if he holds onto the team's closing job for all of 2013. Gonzalez is the team's lone non-tender candidate, as he's barely sniffed the Majors since '09 and the Astros waited until September to grant him a 40-man roster spot. Assuming he is cut loose, the Astros will have an estimated $7.1MM in 2013 salaries for four arbitration eligible players.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.
Pirates Release Erik Bedard
The Pirates released lefty Erik Bedard, reported Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review on Sulia. Michael Sanserino of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette later confirmed the story. The Pirates confirmed that they have released Bedard and announced that they'll make a related move this afternoon.
Bedard, 33, posted a 5.01 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, and 43.3% groundball rate in 125 2/3 innings this year. The Bucs signed Bedard in December to a one-year, $4.5MM free agent deal, so they still owe him about $910K. Assuming Bedard hooks on somewhere, he's on track to reach 130 innings for the first time since 2007. He's had some nice runs this year, but an 8.79 ERA over his past three outings may have been the nail in the coffin for the Pirates as they battle for a wild card spot.
Veteran Kevin Correia could be a candidate to replace Bedard in the team's rotation. A.J. Burnett, James McDonald, Wandy Rodriguez and Jeff Karstens round out the Pirates' starting five.
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D’Backs Tried To Acquire Ace Pitcher
5:33pm: The Diamondbacks were indeed working to acquire Garza today, Olney reports (on Twitter).
12:58pm: Lefty Patrick Corbin has been scratched from his start for Arizona's Triple-A affiliate, tweets Chris Gabel of the Reno Gazette-Journal. Magruder has been told Corbin will not be moved, but says he guesses things could change in what Kevin Towers likes to call the "lightning round."
12:46pm: The Diamondbacks are not currently discussing a deal with the Cubs involving Upton and Garza, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert. It was only Olney's speculation in the first place.
12:31pm: The D'Backs are "working hard on something big," tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. Olney feels that an Upton-Matt Garza framework makes sense for the Cubs and Diamondbacks. Upton does have the Cubs on his no-trade list, notes Olney.
10:56am: Diamondbacks managing partner Ken Kendrick dismissed talk of acquiring Lee, Jack Magruder of FOXSportsArizona.com reports (Twitter links). "He is owed $100MM. If they want to keep $90MM" Kendrick said. "Really problematic to move him." Arizona would still like to acquire a starter, but Kendrick says we should not expect front page news.
8:37am: The Diamondbacks are one of the teams to which Lee can block a trade, notes Rosenthal.
8:08am: The Diamondbacks say Upton is definitely staying and there is no truth to rumors of Lee or Hernandez, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. That, of course, does not make Rosenthal's report of the D'Backs seeking an ace pitcher untrue. Meanwhile, Nightengale notes that the club is likely to trade shortstop Stephen Drew today.
3:59am: The Diamondbacks are trying to swing a blockbuster for an unknown ace starting pitcher, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. One rival executive "received indications that the Phillies and Diamondbacks had discussed a deal involving Cliff Lee and Justin Upton," but that scenario is unconfirmed and it is not known whether the D'Backs are among the 21 teams to which Lee can block a trade. Plus, Kevin Towers and company would need serious assistance covering the $95.1MM guaranteed to the Phillies' lefty through 2015.
Rosenthal notes that the Mariners inquired on Upton earlier this month, but talks failed to progress. Given that club's repeated comments on and off record, we can probably forget about Felix Hernandez.
Rosenthal did not mention the Marlins' Josh Johnson, who is reportedly expected to stay put through today's deadline. It's difficult to name another ace-like starting pitcher on whom a team might listen.
Alfonso Soriano Not Getting Traded Today
5:14pm: Tigers president and GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters, including MLB.com's Jason Beck, that the Tigers didn't discuss Soriano with the Cubs (Twitter link). "Not once. … We did speak with the Cubs, but we did not speak about Soriano," Dombrowski said.
2:24pm: Soriano will stay with the Cubs at least this week, tweets Nightengale.
2:14pm: The Cubs say Soriano is likely to stay put, though an August deal is possible, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
2:04pm: The Tigers and Cubs are hard at work on Soriano, tweets David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com, but he's not sure if they can make the money work. Soriano is owed $42.3MM through 2014.
1:18pm: Manager Jim Leyland thinks the Tigers may be done on the trade front, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
10:57am: The Tigers have considered Alfonso Soriano, but don't think he's a great fit, Knobler reports (on Twitter). They asked about Scott Hairston, but the Mets wanted one of the Tigers' top five prospects in return.
10:24am: The Tigers are seeking a middle-of-the-order hitter in the wake of discouraging news on Victor Martinez's recovery from knee surgery, writes Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. Martinez is said to be 50-50 to return this year, so the Tigers are "looking hard" for another bat.