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Author: Tim Dierkes

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels

By | at October 23, 2012 10:25am CDT

The Angels are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

A broken ankle caused Morales to miss most of the 2010 season and all of 2011, and he finally returned in 2012 to find Albert Pujols occupying his position.  Spending the majority of his time at DH, Morales managed to pop 22 home runs in 522 plate appearances this year.  It seems sudden due to the time missed, but the 29-year-old Cuban will be entering his walk year in 2013.  As designated hitters go, Morales wasn't anything special this year, and besides, he's a Boras Corporation client.  Free agency is probably in his future.    

Callaspo was the team's primary third baseman, though he was just passable with the bat.  Like Morales, he will probably be retained but seems unlikely to be extended.

Jepsen, a hard-throwing 28-year-old reliever, racked up 18 holds in just 44 2/3 innings this year.  He spent a couple months early in the season at Triple-A, but by September he was in the closer discussion.  He'll be around next year.

Williams battled injuries in 2012 and was eventually replaced in the rotation in July.  Since his improbable return to the Majors last year, Williams has proven useful at times, but he's a likely non-tender candidate this winter.

If Morales, Callaspo, and Jepsen are retained, the Angels are looking at an estimated $10.1MM for three arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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2013 Arbitration Eligibles Los Angeles Angels

Arbitration Eligibles: Pittsburgh Pirates

By | at October 22, 2012 3:15pm CDT

The Pirates are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Hanrahan remains an asset for the Pirates, though this year's return to a big-time strikeout rate came with the unwanted side effects of a high walk rate and a lot of flyballs.  On the surface, the Bucs have a guy who's converted 76 of 84 save opportunities the last two years with a 2.24 ERA and two All-Star game appearances.  Hanrahan will be entering his walk year.  With draft pick compensation for relievers mostly a thing of the past, GM Neal Huntington has to decide whether to trade Hanrahan or extend him in the neighborhood of $10MM per free agent year.

Elsewhere in the bullpen there's Resop, who added groundballs this year at the expense of strikeouts.  The 29-year-old is hittable yet serviceable, and he's not terribly expensive.

The Pirates have three arbitration eligible starting pitchers.  McDonald's ERA sat at 2.37 after a July 7th win; through 110 innings it seemed as if he'd turned a corner.  He was brutal over his next 13 outings, with a 7.52 ERA in 61 frames.  It was an odd season, but McDonald is expected to begin next year back in the Pirates' rotation.  Now is not the time to consider trading or extending him.

Morton had hip surgery a year ago, but was able to make his season debut in mid-April.  He lasted only nine starts before succumbing to Tommy John surgery.  He has to be considered a non-tender candidate, as otherwise the Pirates would have to pay him a projected $2.6MM in 2012 to pitch at most three and a half months.  Huntington must decide the value of the chance to control Morton for the 2014 season.  The GM was noncommittal on the subject of Karstens, who had an injury-shortened 2012 as well.  Since Karstens finished the season healthy, he might be on firmer ground than Morton.

Jones needs a platoon partner, but he did hit .289/.332/.556 with 25 home runs in 434 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.  I think he's safe, though this could be the last raise the Pirates are willing to give him.  Walker had another nice year, and the Pirates have flirted with extending the Pittsburgh native before.  In March, I suggested five years and $27MM for the Super Two second baseman.

The Pirates acquired Sanchez from the Marlins at the July trade deadline.  The 29-year-old was better for the Bucs, but still fell well short of the production of a typical starting first baseman.  There's a decent chance he's non-tendered.

If only Hanrahan, Jones, Karstens, McDonald, Walker, and Resop are retained, the Pirates would be looking at an estimated $22.3MM for six arbitration eligible players.       

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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2013 Arbitration Eligibles Pittsburgh Pirates

Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles

By | at October 19, 2012 7:52am CDT

The Orioles are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  With 15 arbitration eligible players, the O's have the largest group of any team.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Let's begin dissecting this massive group by looking at the pure relievers: Johnson, O'Day, and Patton.  As a pitch-to-contact, groundball-oriented guy, Johnson is not your prototypical closer.  However, it'd be hard for the Orioles to argue against a 51-save platform year from the 29-year-old, and Johnson is in line for a hefty raise.  If the Orioles believe in Johnson long-term, they could get him at a lower 2013 salary by doing a multiyear deal.  O'Day added a third stellar season to his resume, though his holds totals aren't big enough to send his salary skyrocketing.  Likewise for Patton's fine 2012.

Matusz and Hunter spent time starting and relieving this year, and both were much more effective in relief.  As Super Two first-timers, their careers as starters will earn them extra money in arbitration.  Both had decent rotation stints a few years back.  Matusz will surely be tendered a contract, and I think Hunter is safe as well.

Few expected a move to the AL East to coincide with the best year of Hammel's career, but the 30-year-old posted a 3.43 ERA.  However, a long DL stint for knee surgery limited him to 118 innings, his lowest total since '08.  That will suppress his raise.  The righty will be entering a contract year, so if the club buys into the new and improved Hammel, a multiyear deal should be considered.  The team could aim for something below the three-year, $24MM deal Joe Blanton signed before the 2010 season.

The Orioles have ten arbitration eligible position players, many of whom are non-tender candidates.  The biggest name is Reynolds, who would be arbitration eligible in the likely event the team chooses a $500K buyout over his $11MM club option.  Our projections suggest they could sign him for less than $9MM through the arbitration process, but that's still probably too hefty.  Andino is coming off a very rough offensive year, and the Orioles might let him go rather than pay him close to $2MM.

The other position player non-tender candidates all project to earn a million bucks or less in 2013.  Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com thinks Teagarden will be back as Wieters' rarely-used backup, despite Teagarden's abysmal offense over his last 400 career plate appearances.  Pearce was all over the place: signed by the Twins to a minor league deal in December, released in March, then a minor league deal with the Yankees, then a June trade to the Orioles, designated for assignment by the Orioles in late July, claimed off waivers by the Astros, traded to the Yankees in late August, designated again in late September, and finally claimed by the Orioles.  He has some pop, but the Orioles probably will not let him keep his 40-man roster spot.

Ford found his way back to the Majors in late July, the 36-year-old's first big league appearance since '07.  He'd done a nice job at Triple-A but also probably won't keep his 40-man spot.  Quintanilla had his largest Major League plate appearance total this year since '08, and he can also be safely cut loose.  A neck injury ended Reimold's season in April; he had surgery in June.  He can be retained cheaply enough and will probably remain in the left field mix next year.

Wieters is an important case for the Orioles, as he could earn almost $5MM as a first-timer.  The 26-year-old backstop was not arbitration eligible a year ago due to a conscious effort in 2009 by the previous front office to ensure he'd avoid Super Two status.  Given that memory, and the fact that Wieters is represented by the Boras Corporation, I'm guessing the best the Orioles could do would be to buy out only his arbitration years (2013-15).  I've never been a big fan of that type of extension.

Davis should make decent money as a first-timer, with a 33-home run platform year and some decent longball totals early in his Rangers career.  There's no doubting his power, though he's not one to draw a walk or add value on defense.  He's generally not the type to get a multiyear deal, because even if you design something team-friendly, he could still go Adam Lind on you.

Working under the assumption only Johnson, Hammel, Wieters, Davis, O'Day, Hunter, Reimold, Matusz, and Patton are retained, the Orioles are looking at an estimated $28.1MM for nine arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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2013 Arbitration Eligibles Baltimore Orioles

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Dodgers

By | at October 18, 2012 7:46am CDT

The Dodgers are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series, although they have the smallest group of any team.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

  • First time: A.J. Ellis ($1.7MM)
  • Second time: None
  • Third time: None

The Dodgers are a largely veteran club.  Currently it appears that catcher A.J. Ellis will reach Super Two status and reliever Ronald Belisario will not, making Ellis the team's lone arbitration case.

Ellis, 31, ran away with the team's starting catching job with strong on-base skills and better-than-expected pop.  Though the Dodgers took a while to buy into the idea of Ellis' OBP holding up at the Major League level, a multiyear deal could be entertained this winter.  It'd have to be something small and team-friendly, along the lines of contracts signed by Jonathan Lucroy, Nick Hundley, and Carlos Ruiz in recent years.

At any rate, the Dodgers might have a slew of guaranteed contracts on the books, but their arbitration case projects to add less than $2MM.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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2013 Arbitration Eligibles Los Angeles Dodgers

Arbitration Eligibles: Cleveland Indians

By | at October 17, 2012 7:47am CDT

The Indians are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Choo, Perez, and Masterson represent the Tribe's big money arbitration trio, and all will be tendered contracts.  Choo, 30, had a strong bounceback season and will be entering his contract year.  Jon Heyman of CBS Sports talked to Chris Antonetti in August, and the Indians' GM explained that Choo and agent Scott Boras have not been receptive to an extension.  Choo's trade value may be limited by the lone year of remaining control and his struggles against left-handed pitching.

Perez made headlines in September when he was mildly critical of the Indians' payroll and front office in an interview with Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  The closer later hashed things out with Antonetti in a long meeting.  After that, Perez touched on his future with MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, saying, "That's a business decision that they're going to have to make.  That's not up to me. That's not my decision. I have two years left here at least. Right now, it's up to them. I think whatever they decide to do is definitely going to tell you which way the team is going one way or the other."  In other words, if the Indians trade Perez for cheaper players, it'll represent a step in the rebuilding direction.  On that point, I disagree: the value placed on the save statistic will continue to artifically inflate Perez's salary next year, and if the Indians can get a solid return for him, that's just a good baseball decision.

At a salary approaching $6MM, Masterson will be pricey for a guy coming off a 4.93 ERA.  He's better than that, and maybe the comfort of having Terry Francona as manager again will provide a small boost.

Of the team's seven remaining arbitration eligible players, many are non-tender candidates: Lillibridge, Rafael Perez, Hannahan, and Slowey.  Slowey will pitch in the Dominican Winter League following an injury-shortened 2012 campaign in which he did not return to the Majors.  Without the Rockies picking up part of the tab on Slowey this time, he's headed for a non-tender.  Lillibridge couldn't reproduce his strong part-time showing in 2011.  The Red Sox acquired Lillibridge in the Kevin Youkilis trade in late June, but designated him for assignment in less than a month, at which point the Indians got him in a minor deal.

Rafael Perez came down with shoulder soreness in March, missed most of the season, and had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in late September.  Even if he is ready for Spring Training, Perez doesn't represent a great risk of $2MM.  Hannahan, typically well-regarded for his defense, could stick around for a reduced role behind Lonnie Chisenhall.  Or, the Indians could seek a cheaper backup at third base.

Sipp has troublesome flyball/home run tendencies, though at a million bucks or so he may be retained.  Smith will remain a key cog in next year's bullpen.  With Carlos Santana spending some time at first base, Marson received more starts at catcher than a typical backup.  I expect him to be tendered a contract.

A total arbitration estimate doesn't mean much given the different trade and non-tender scenarios for the Indians.  But if Choo, Chris Perez, Masterson, Smith, Sipp, and Marson are retained, we're estimating $25.3MM for six arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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2013 Arbitration Eligibles Cleveland Guardians

Arbitration Eligibles: Milwaukee Brewers

By | at October 16, 2012 9:21am CDT

The Brewers are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

The Brewers' arbitration class includes four relievers: Axford, Loe, Parra, and Veras.  Axford was removed from the closer role in July, but was soon worked back into save situations.  Saves pay in arbitration, and Axford still amassed 35 of them in 2012 (and 106 for his career).  At $5.1MM, he'll already be expensive for a reliever after his first time through arbitration, but Axford will be back in 2013.  

Earlier this month, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel noted that the Brewers' bullpen will be "extensively retooled" behind Axford and Jim Henderson, so it's possible Loe, Veras, and Parra are all removed one way or another.  Loe struggled this year but would get credit in arbitration for 51 career holds.  Veras' already-shaky control slipped in 2012, but he still racks up strikeouts.  Parra missed all of 2011 with an elbow injury and returned in 2012 with 58 2/3 relief innings.  He remains tough on lefties and still throws hard, so he might be worth a $1.6MM investment.  On the other hand, with a 5.06 ERA and tons of baserunners, it's possible the Brewers have seen enough.  My guess is that Brewers GM Doug Melvin will shop this trio prior to the November 30th non-tender deadline.  

Starters Estrada and Narveson are first-time arbitration eligible.  Estrada posted a 3.76 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 1.18 HR/9 in 23 starts, so he has a rotation spot locked up for 2013.  Narveson was serviceable in 2011, but he missed almost of all 2012 due to rotator cuff surgery.  If, as we're projecting, that keeps him under a million bucks for '13, the Brewers will probably tender him a contract.

The Brewers have three arbitration eligible position players: Morgan, Ishikawa, and Gomez.  Morgan lost his effectiveness against left-handed starters, and won't be worth his projected arbitration salary.  Ishikawa was decent in limited action, but there's still some danger of a non-tender.  Gomez hit a career-high 19 home runs, and is locked in as the Brewers' center fielder for next year.

The Brewers have a lot of borderline non-tender candidates in the bullpen, so it's tough to pin down a total salary estimate.  If only Axford, Gomez, Narveson, and Estrada are retained, that'd be a projected $10.9MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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2013 Arbitration Eligibles Milwaukee Brewers

Arbitration Eligibles: Colorado Rockies

By | at October 15, 2012 11:00am CDT

The Rockies are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

With an 8.19 ERA in the Majors, Outman seems a candidate to be non-tendered.  Herrera had a rough year with multiple DL stints, and could be cut loose as well.  On the other hand, neither player projects to make even a million bucks, so if the Rockies prefer to keep their options open, they could be retained.

Chacin, slated as the Rockies' number two starter entering the season, was optioned to Triple-A by May.  His early struggles may have been due to a pectoral issue, about which he was less than forthcoming.  After Chacin rejoined the rotation in late August, he posted a 2.84 ERA, 4.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 0.61 HR/9 in nine starts.  The strikeout and walk rates aren't encouraging, but there's no doubt Chacin will be tendered a contract for 2013.

Colvin's service time is right at the projected cutoff of two years and 139 days, so if that holds up he'll be arbitration eligible as a Super Two.  He had a great year, at least at Coors Field, and started at least 18 games at three different positions.  He'll enter next year with a prominent role on the Rockies.

Fowler had the best offensive year of his career, though he too was much better at Coors.  Only three center fielders had a better OPS, though the advanced defensive metrics rated Fowler poorly.  There's still enough here to merit an extension, which MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith discussed at length in late August.  If Fowler is not extended, his somewhat low counting stats will limit his arbitration raise.

Assuming only Chacin, Fowler, and Colvin are retained, the Rockies are looking at an estimated $7.5MM for three arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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2013 Arbitration Eligibles Colorado Rockies

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

By | at October 12, 2012 9:02am CDT

The Cubs are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Several arbitration eligible Cubs stand a good chance of being non-tendered.  With a 6.31 ERA, Volstad had a terrible year, and paying him anything close to $3MM doesn't make sense.  Stewart was affected all year by a wrist injury, which culminated in July surgery.  MLB.com's Carrie Muskat quoted Cubs GM Jed Hoyer on the situation last month: "Obviously, we'll spend a lot of time getting to the bottom of how it looks going forward before making a decision on his future with us.  It is a year that's hard to evaluate given the wrist."  So, Stewart at least has some chance of sticking around.

Valbuena picked up a lot of starts at third base in Stewart's absence, and manager Dale Sveum told Muskat he sees the 26-year-old on next year's team.  Valbuena's numbers — .219/.310/.340 in 303 plate appearances — don't make a strong case, however.  Corpas didn't have a particularly good year, and seems likely to be cut loose.

Samardzija spent the year in the Cubs' rotation and authored a breakout campaign, just in time for arbitration.  It's tough to find good comparables, since the pitcher had spent most of his previous innings in relief.  We've got him at $2.9MM, though his agency could make a case for something in excess of $3.5MM.  If the Cubs look to extend Samardzija, perhaps Johnny Cueto's four-year, $27MM deal would be a template.  Russell had a solid year out of the Cubs' pen, but won't be expensive his first time through arbitration.

Garza pitched a bit more than half a season before a triceps/elbow injury cut him short.  We're projecting a pretty mild raise up to $10MM, but this is another situation light on comparables.  If Garza comes up strong in the first half of 2013, the Cubs must decide whether to trade him, extend him, or let him walk as a free agent (potentially with a qualifying offer).    

If only Garza, Valbuena, Samardzija, and Russell are retained, we're estimating $14.7MM in salary to four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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2013 Arbitration Eligibles Chicago Cubs

Arbitration Eligibles: Arizona Diamondbacks

By | at October 11, 2012 8:00am CDT

The Diamondbacks are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Ziegler and Albers both posted sub-3.00 ERAs in 2012, aided by strong groundball rates.  Look for both to be retained at reasonable prices.

Johnson, acquired from Houston in July, showed increased power for Arizona in a limited sample and will come into 2013 as the team's likely starter at the hot corner.  He projects as a Super Two player.  Parra was an oft-used fourth outfielder for most of 2012.  A skilled defender, Parra may have an increased role next year if the D'Backs move him or another outfielder.

Kennedy's body of work — 46 wins, 684 innings, and a 3.76 ERA — is quite impressive and only a little shy of where Jered Weaver was prior to his first arbitration year.  With so many of the best starting pitchers locked into long-term contracts these days by the time they reach arbitration, our projection model actually has a pretty small sample with which to work.  So, it cranked out $4.6MM for Kennedy, which would be a first-time starting pitcher arbitration record.  In reality, we feel he will come in shy of Weaver, hence the "off-model" $4.2MM projection above.

Regardless, Kennedy is due for a very strong first-year arbitration salary.  It's possible the D'Backs will look to lock him up, saving some money for 2013 in the process.  The standard four-year, $30MM contract we've seen so often has been for pitchers with less than three years of service, whereas Kennedy is well past that point.  Gio Gonzalez's five-year, $42MM contract might be a better target, although it's not a perfect match since Gonzalez was a Super Two.

Nieves, Zagurski, Ransom, and Bergesen are the team's non-tender candidates.  If Henry Blanco returns as Miguel Montero's backup, Nieves will not be needed.  Zagurski was removed from Arizona's 40-man roster in April and August, and he'll probably be removed again.  The D'Backs also removed Ransom in May, though they brought him back in an August waiver claim.  Bergesen was acquired from Baltimore in a July waiver claim, and it's debatable whether the club will want him back for a long relief role.

Assuming only Ziegler, Albers, Johnson, Parra, and Kennedy are retained, we're projecting $12.6MM in salary for arbitration eligible Diamondbacks for 2013.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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2013 Arbitration Eligibles Arizona Diamondbacks

Arbitration Eligibles: New York Mets

By | at October 9, 2012 11:00pm CDT

The Mets are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

The Mets have nine arbitration eligible players, but more than half stand a good chance of being non-tendered.  Pelfrey had Tommy John surgery in May, and even with his recovery going well there's no reason to pay him nearly $6MM again.  Seeing as how the former first-rounder is a client of the Boras Corporation, he'll probably be reluctant to allow for a club option when he signs somewhere as a free agent.

The Giants have been thrilled with Angel Pagan, but a change of scenery didn't help Torres on the other end of that trade.  Torres' ineffective season was marred by injuries, and he'll be cut loose.  Acosta was removed from the Mets' 40-man roster in May and re-added later; he'll be off it again soon.  Johnson struggled at both Triple-A and in the Majors, ending his season with a ligament tear in his thumb.  Lewis spent little time with the Mets this year and is also likely to be removed from the 40-man.

Davis and Thole will be arbitration eligible as Super Two players.  The Mets were rewarded for sticking with Davis, who was brutal for the season's first two months and then hit .253/.341/.536 with 27 home runs in 413 plate appearances the rest of the way.  If the Mets feel good about Davis' future, perhaps they could look to extend him now with some variant of Billy Butler's four-year, $30MM contract.  Thole had a rough year, but at a low projected salary he can be retained as a backup and personal catcher for R.A. Dickey.

Murphy is penciled in as the team's second baseman after a solid 2012 campaign.  Parnell hasn't had much success closing out games in his career to date, but overall he had a strong year and will have a key role in next year's bullpen.

Assuming only Murphy, Parnell, Davis, and Thole are retained, we're projecting $8.5MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.  For more on the Mets, check out Ben Nicholson-Smith's offseason outlook.

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2013 Arbitration Eligibles New York Mets
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