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MLB Lockout Reader Survey

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Today marks Day 26 of the MLB lockout, as we trudge toward the end of the quietest December this website has ever seen.  The new year begins Saturday, and there’s an expectation MLB and the players’ union will resume negotiating core economic issues sometime in January.

The collective bargaining agreement expired on December 1st and MLB instituted a lockout, and the time since has been a waste: no notable movement on a new CBA, and of course a freeze on free agent signings and trades.  The only dates that seem likely to motivate either side are related to Spring Training.  Normally we’d see pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training the week of February 14.  And the Spring Training game schedule has been in place for months, with games set to kick off February 26.  So February 26 is the next real pressure point, as canceling Spring Training games will result in tangible revenue loss for teams.  It’s entirely possible we won’t see any real CBA movement until February.

Seeing as how we’re mired in the first work stoppage of MLBTR’s 16-year history, I’d like to see where our readers stand on several key issues.  Check out our eight-question survey below.  You can click here for a direct link to it, and click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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With a burgeoning payroll, can the White Sox find a strong replacement for Carlos Rodon and upgrade at second base and/or right field?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: $36.5MM through 2023
  • Dallas Keuchel, SP: $19.5MM through 2022.  Includes $20MM club option for 2023
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: $18MM through 2022
  • Craig Kimbrel, RP: $16MM through 2022
  • Liam Hendriks, RP: $42MM through 2024 (technically through ’23 but the option and buyout prices are the same)
  • Lance Lynn, SP: $38MM through 2023.  Includes $18MM club option for 2024
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $10.5MM through 2022.  Includes $12.5MM club option for ’23 and $14MM club option for ’24
  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: $59MM through 2024.  Includes $25MM club option for ’25
  • Kendall Graveman, RP: $24MM through 2024
  • Eloy Jimenez, LF: $32MM through 2024.  Includes $16.5MM club option for ’25 and $18.5MM club option for ’26
  • Luis Robert, CF: $45MM through 2025.  Includes $20MM club options for ’26 and ’27
  • Leury Garcia, IF: $16.5MM through 2024.
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: $13MM through 2024.  Includes $7.25MM club option for ’25 and $7.5MM club option for ’26

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Declined $6MM club option on 2B Cesar Hernandez
  • Exercised $16MM club option on RP Craig Kimbrel

Free Agents

The White Sox won the AL Central this year, marking back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time in the club’s storied 121-year history.  Prior to 2020, the team hadn’t even put together a winning record since 2012.  The White Sox are here to stay as a perennial contender, even if they went quietly to the Astros in the ALDS this year.  As you can see in the contracts section above, the team has already locked up core pieces and should have relatively strong continuity for the next several years.

Several significant moves and non-moves took place prior to the December 2nd lockout.  The White Sox made a pair of unsurprising option decisions, cutting second baseman Cesar Hernandez loose and retaining reliever Craig Kimbrel.  I wonder if the Kimbrel decision represents something of a sunk cost fallacy, with the Sox having surrendered former first rounder Nick Madrigal plus reliever Codi Heuer to acquire Kimbrel from the Cubs at the July deadline.  Who the White Sox gave up, of course, should have had no bearing on Kimbrel’s option decision.  The team only had 25 innings in which to evaluate Kimbrel, during which his extreme home run tendencies returned.

Since 2019, Kimbrel has been an effective pitcher for only the 36 2/3 innings at the beginning of the ’21 season.  But in those 39 games, Kimbrel was utterly dominant, allowing only two earned runs.  Even heading into his age-34 season, Kimbrel is undoubtedly one of the top strikeout relievers in the game, ranking third in that metric since 2020.  The question is whether home run and walk proclivities will be an issue in 2022, and I don’t think anyone really knows the answer.  The White Sox, who appear to be bumping up against their payroll limit, gambled $16MM that Good Kimbrel will show up over the next 60 innings or at least that they can unload him to positive effect.

White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.”  Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.”  That’s not a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.

The White Sox struck a pre-lockout deal with one of the top free agent relivers in Kendall Graveman, seemingly only increasing the chances of a Kimbrel trade.  Possible matches for Kimbrel could include the Tigers and Royals, but intra-division trades among contenders can be tough.  The Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, and Phillies make some theoretical sense, but it will not be easy for Hahn to find a team willing to take on a $16MM closer and give up a player of value.  Hahn has gambled that whatever he gets back will be better than just paying the $1MM buyout on Kimbrel and spending the money in free agency.

The White Sox also made the curious choice not to issue the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Carlos Rodon.  Rodon was a surprise Cy Young contender through mid-July, but wore down thereafter and experienced a velocity dip.  Soon after the Rodon decision, Noah Syndergaard, with two innings under his belt from 2020-21, snagged a one-year, $21MM deal from the Angels.  Hahn offered little insight into the team’s decision, saying, “We made the assessment based on everything we know, which includes our needs and our other targets, that that wasn’t an offer we were comfortable making at this time.”

The implication is that the White Sox felt that A) there was a real chance of Rodon accepting the QO and B) that would have been a bad thing for the team.  On both fronts, the team has more information than we do.  We don’t know exactly how Scott Boras played it and if maybe he bluffed his way out of the QO by intimating they might accept.  Afterward, of course, Boras acted as if there was never a chance Rodon would accept.  Additionally, no one knows Rodon’s health better than the White Sox.  Health concerns are one potential justification for not offering the QO to Rodon.  If the club thought Rodon is likely to provide even 100 innings of 3.50 ball in 2022, the QO is an easy yes.

There’s also the chance that the White Sox budgeted $20MM+ for a potential frontline starter, and they wanted to keep their options open and attempt to acquire someone they feel is better than Rodon.  Case in point Justin Verlander, in whom the Sox “showed strong interest” prior to his re-upping with the Astros, according to Bob Nightengale.  The White Sox already have a projected rotation of Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel, and Michael Kopech.  Allowing that they could attempt to dump Keuchel’s salary, there’s generally room for only one addition.  Save for perhaps Clayton Kershaw, who’s unlikely to sign in Chicago, free agency doesn’t offer anyone of Rodon’s caliber.  The post-lockout trade market, however, could be robust.  If Hahn were to come up with, say, Frankie Montas, the Rodon decision would look reasonable.

Second base remains a clear area of need for the White Sox.  Nick Madrigal is now across town, and the club declined Cesar Hernandez’s option after he posted a 70 wRC+ for them.  The White Sox have Leury Garcia back in the fold as a fallback, but they could consider acquiring Jean Segura, Ketel Marte, Josh Harrison, DJ LeMahieu, Jeff McNeil, or Jed Lowrie.  Also consider the summer report that the White Sox were interested in acquiring Trevor Story and playing him at second base back in July.  If multiyear offers are not to Story’s liking, he could land in Chicago on a one-year deal and attempt to pull a Marcus Semien.  I don’t think a Semien reunion was ever a consideration for the White Sox, but they have seen a few more affordable second base options come off the board in Chris Taylor and Eduardo Escobar.

Since the White Sox non-tendered Avisail Garcia three years ago, they’ve been searching for a solution in right field.  In the three years that followed, Ryan Cordell, Nomar Mazara, and Adam Eaton were their innings leaders at the position.  Aside from Leury Garcia, the club has solid internal options for ’22 in Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Engel.  Vaughn, the most promising hitter of the bunch, spent most of ’21 filling in at the other outfield corner with Eloy Jimenez out.  The club is not in desperation mode here, but they figure to monitor the market.  What the White Sox do with right field might depend on the caliber of player they add for the rotation and second base.  Available right field-capable players could include Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Wil Myers, Max Kepler, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Jorge Soler, Andrew McCutchen, and Manuel Margot, though not all of those would be upgrades over internal options.

Along with all these permutations, the team’s payroll must be considered.  The White Sox’ 2021 Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM was an all-time high, just a hair above where they peaked a decade prior.  The team currently has 13 players under contract for 2022 at a total of $152.75MM, plus a projected $12.9MM for their arbitration eligible trio.  That brings the total to around $165MM for 15 players, with an MLB-wide expected minimum salary increase on the way.  It’s unclear how far owner Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to go and how much of Kimbrel and perhaps Keuchel’s salary can be cleared.  Abreu, Keuchel, and Kimbrel are off the books after ’22, though the club figures to attempt to extend Abreu.  Plus, the club has scheduled or expected raises to Moncada, Anderson, Giolito, Robert, Jimenez, and Bummer in ’23.

Rodon was the top White Sox pitcher by WAR in 2021 in just 132 2/3 innings, so replacing his production will not be easy.  Though the team’s four division-mates didn’t put up much of a fight in ’21, the Tigers have already made major additions.  All five clubs now fancy themselves contenders.  While the White Sox are still the AL Central favorite currently, there’s work to be done once the lockout ends.

Marc Narducci: My Hall Of Fame Ballot

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Marc Narducci spent 37 years covering all sports for The Philadelphia Inquirer before recently retiring in July. He covered everything from high school sports to the Phillies winning the World Series and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl. A lifelong Southern NJ resident, he remains a freelance writer and broadcaster. Marc reached out to see if MLB Trade Rumors would be interested in publishing his Hall of Fame ballot.  I am happy to do it and hope it can be an interesting topic of debate for our readers.  Here’s Marc…

Voting for the Baseball Hall of Fame is an honor, but it’s difficult to see any sport where the task is more challenging.

That’s because of the steroid era.

One thing that should be stated off the bat is that there is no right or wrong answer when filling out the ballot in the opinion of this reporter.

As a former The Philadelphia Inquirer writer for 37 years, the decision of other voters won’t be questioned.

We can all agree to disagree and there will be many disagreements, especially when seeing my ballot.

The steroid era has made things so difficult. Do you vote for players associated with steroids?

One school of thought says the best players should go in regardless and the Hall of Fame would be empty without some of the great stars of the game such as Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

Others, and this is the camp will you find me, look at it the opposite way.

The steroid era did permanent damage to the sport. It also hurt the players who followed the rules and were thus competing at a severe disadvantage. Not only that, it hurt former players such as Hank Aaron, who was the all-time home run king and was passed by Bonds.

Due to the damage of the steroid era, Bonds, Clemens, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield aren’t on my ballot.

Ramirez and Rodriguez tested positive for PEDs. The others didn’t but Sheffield admitted using a steroid cream. Sosa, Bonds and Clemens maintain their innocence.

Sosa was caught with a corked bat, which even without the suspicion of steroids, would be a stain against his candidacy.

Two former federal authorities who were central to the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO) steroids trafficking case, say there is no doubt that Bonds and Clemens used performance enhancing drugs during their careers.

Again, I know that people feel that writers are being sanctimonious in keeping players out whose on-field exploits deserve induction, but everybody has to vote the way he or she thinks is best.

So why is David Ortiz on this writer’s ballot?

We will get to that in a bit.

Here are the players that I voted for in alphabetical order on my ballot in my second year as a voter. One other thing – we know that stats such as RBI and pitcher’s wins are taboo in the sabermetric world, but we have included them for people who still care about those statistics.

Todd Helton

Let’s get this out of the way first – there are those who won’t vote for Helton due to the fact that he played his career at Coors Field. No doubt it helped him, but he was more than solid on the road. Plus, the toll on a hitter having to go from playing in Colorado to another city isn’t easy.

In addition, a lot of players have competed at Coors and didn’t come close to the numbers that Helton posted. (All stats used are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com).

Here is his career slash line at Coors: .345/.441/.607. This was Helton on the road: .287/.386/.469.

Having an .855 road OPS isn’t too shabby.

Let’s look at two stats that take into account the ballpark – OPS+ and WRC+. Helton’s career OPS+ was 133 and his career WRC+ was 132, which means he was 33 percent and 32 percent above league average in those categories

Helton is off the charts with his career offensive statistics.

He had a career .316/.414/539 slash line with 369 home runs and 1406 RBI.

Helton was a five-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glove winner and was Top 10 in the MVP voting three times.

His career OPS of .953 is 22nd on the all-time list. He also had more career walks (1,335) than strikeouts (1,175). That is almost unheard of in these free-swinging days.

During a 10-year stretch from 1998-2007, he hit .332/432/.585 with 298 home runs and OPS+ of 144. His career B-WAR is 61.8, which is 17th among first baseman. Of those 17, 11 are in the Hall of Fame.

A former college quarterback and teammate of Peyton Manning at the University of Tennessee, Helton was the No. 8 overall pick of the Rockies in the 1995 draft and would play his entire 17-year career with the Rockies. This is his fourth year on the ballot and he received 44.9% of the vote last year.

Jeff Kent

Kent has just two years to go on the ballot and last year he earned just 32.4 percent of the vote. He had a special skill that was way above the second basemen in the Hall of Fame – the ability to hit home runs. Kent has the most home runs of any second baseman in history, 377. He hit 351 of them while playing second base.

Even if one takes the 351 total, that is 50 more than the closest Hall of Fame second baseman, Rogers Hornsby, who hit 301.

Hornsby (.577) is the only Hall of Fame second baseman with a higher slugging percentage than Kent’s .500.

Only four Hall of Fame second basemen have a higher career OPS than Kent (.855). His 1.518 RBI are third among all second basemen.

Kent was a five-time All-Star, the 2000 MVP who hit for average (.290) and power. He also had a career 123 WRC+.

His career B-WAR was just 55.5, but that was mainly because he was considered a below average fielder.

Still, his offense was elite, surely enough for HOF induction.

David Ortiz

In 2009, the New York Times reported that Ortiz was among the list of players who failed a 2003 anonymous drug test. Commissioner Rob Mandred says there were 10 false positives in the survey testing and it is possible that Ortiz was one of them.

He also said Ortiz never failed a drug test although we cited examples of the above mentioned players who didn’t either. That said, I feel less certain about Ortiz and only he knows the truth.

So giving him the benefit of the doubt, he’s a sure-fire Hall of Fame player even though he spent the majority of his career as a DH. For instance, 485 of his 541 career home runs came as a DH. Ortiz hit for average (.286) and power. Besides the 541 home runs, he had a .931 career OPS and career OPS+.of 141. He is also 22nd on the career RBI list with 1,768.

In the postseason he helped the Boston Red Sox win three World Series titles, and hit .289 with 17 home runs and a .947 OPS in 385 plate appearances.

Scott Rolen

There are 17 third basemen in the Hall of Fame, fewest of any position. Only nine third baseman have a higher B-WAR than Rolen (70.1), eight of whom are in the HOF and the other, Adrian Beltre, is a sure-fire candidate. (This also includes Paul Molitor as a third baseman, even though just 3,623 of his 1,267 plate appearances came at third base. It does not include Alex Rodriguez, who had a career B-War of 117.5, but only 42.7% of his plate appearances came as a third baseman).

Rolen was a seven-time All-Star and eight time Gold Glove winner. His defense was every bit as strong as his offense. Rolen’s defensive B-WAR (21.2) is behind just one Hall of Famer – Brooks Robinson, who is No. 1 among third basemen (39.1). (Beltre, at 27.1 is a future Hall of Famer ahead of Rolen).

Only eight HOF third basemen have a higher OPS (.855).

Rolen finished with a .281 average, 316 home runs and 1,287 RBI and was NL Rookie of the Year in 1997 with the Phillies. His career WRC+ was 122.
Rolen was a World Series champion with the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, batting .421 with a 1.213 OPS in the five-game win over the Detroit Tigers.

He was a major threat on offense and defense, both carrying equal weight. This is his fifth year on the ballot and he is trending upward after earning 52.9% of the vote last year.

Curt Schilling

Schilling may be the first player to talk his way out of the Hall of Fame. His public comments and tweets have been well-documented and he will likely pay for them. This is his 10th and final season on the ballot. Last year he was close to the 75% total with 71.1%. Normally that would mean he would make it this year, but it would be a surprise if he gets in. He even tried to get off the Hall of Fame ballot, saying he doesn’t want to get voted in by the members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. That is not exactly a convincing way to sway voters. The Hall of Fame denied his request.

That said, what he did on the field, despite all his verbal gaffes, make him a Hall of Fame pitcher and he got my vote.
Just a few numbers..

Everybody talks about his 11-2 postseason record in 19 starts, but his WHIP was 0.968 and his strike-to-walk ratio was 4.80.

He was a late bloomer and still went 216-142 with a career a 3.46 ERA and 3,116 strikeouts.

Schilling won three World Series titles, two with Boston and one with the Arizona Diamondbacks and went to another World Series with the Philadelphia Phillies, where he was the 1993 NLCS MVP. He was runner-up for the Cy Young Award three times and fourth another.

Schilling was among the best big-game pitchers of his era and the only thing bigger was his mouth, which will likely keep him out of Cooperstown.

Billy Wagner

There are eight relief pitchers in the HOF. Only Mariano Rivera has a better ERA and ERA+ than Billy Wagner. A seven-time All-Star, Wagner’s career ERA was 2.31 and his adjusted ERA was 187. His 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings is best in MLB history (minimum of 750 innings pitched). He also has a career 0.998 WHIP.

Wagner had 422 saves in 491 opportunities (85.9 percent). Only two Hall of Fame relievers have a higher save percentage. Mariano Rivera (89.1%) and Trevor Hoffman (88.8%). Wagner also has a higher strikeout ratio (33.2%) than any reliever in the HOF. The closest is Hoffman (25.8%).

Now the negative. Wagner pitched only 903 innings, fewest of the Hall of Fame pitchers. Wagner also didn’t have a stellar postseason record, although it included just 11 2/3 innings over 14 appearances.

We can see why some may keep Wagner out due to the fact that all eight relievers in the Hall of Fame each exceeded 1,000 innings. Yet he has so many top achievements among the best relievers in the game’s history that he belongs with them in Cooperstown.

This is his seventh year on the ballot and he received 46.4% of the vote last year.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat With Former MLB Closer Chad Cordero

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The Montreal Expos drafted Chad Cordero 20th overall in 2003 out of Cal State Fullerton, and months later he was in the Majors as a member of their bullpen.  Chad had a fine season as part of the last-ever Expos team in ’04.  By the time this website launched in ’05, the inaugural Nationals season, he was the best reliever on the planet.  Cordero saved an MLB-best 47 games that year, posted a 1.82 ERA, made the All-Star team, and received MVP and Cy Young votes.

Cordero went on to save 128 games in his excellent career, all with the Expos/Nationals from 2003-07.  He also appeared briefly for the Mariners in 2010 before deciding to retire.

After enjoying our chat with fellow Fullerton alum Christian Colon, Chad reached out because he loves chatting with baseball fans.  We were thrilled to host him.  Chad was generous with his time and gave thoughtful answers to questions.  Read the transcript of the Chad Cordero chat here.

Since MLBTR readers have enjoyed our chats with MLB players, I’ll keep trying to line them up!  If you’re a current or former MLB player who would like to participate, please send us an email.  It only takes an hour, and you get to choose which questions you publish and answer!

Read The Transcript Of Dan Straily’s Chat With MLBTR Readers

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Dan Straily has put together an accomplished career as a starting pitcher in Major League Baseball as well as Korea Baseball Organization.  Straily is an eight-year MLB veteran of the A’s, Cubs, Astros, Reds, Marlins, and Orioles.  He finished fourth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2013 and has made at least 23 starts in four separate MLB seasons.  Straily won 14 games in 2016 with the Reds and tied for the NL lead with 33 starts for the Marlins in ’17.  He’s been on the other end of trades involving Jeff Samardzija, Dexter Fowler, and Luis Castillo, among others.

Over the past two seasons, Straily has started 62 games for the Lotte Giants of KBO with a fine 3.22 ERA, and he’s now a free agent who is free to talk to MLB teams.  You can follow Dan on Twitter @danstraily67.  Dan also runs the excellent Journeyman Podcast along with Ben Fleming.  Follow the podcast @journeyman_pod on Twitter, and listen to it on Apple Podcasts here.

Today, we proudly hosted Dan for a live chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.  We’ve got several more chats coming up with MLB players, so be on the lookout!  And if you’re a current or former MLB player who would enjoy chatting with the readers of this site, drop us a line through our contact form.  It’s an easy, fun one-hour experience and you get to choose the questions you answer.

Read The Christian Colón Chat Transcript

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Former MLB infielder Christian Colón joined MLBTR readers in a live chat today.  Click here to read the transcript.

Christian is a big fan of this website and he had a good time chatting!  MLBTR congratulates him on his retirement.  If you’re a current or former MLB player and you’d be interested in holding a one-hour live chat with our readers, please send us a message through our contact form.

MLBTR Seeking Fantasy Baseball Writer

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MLB Trade Rumors is seeking a fantasy baseball writer.  This is a paid part-time position that will include a weekly article and live chat running at least January through March.  We’re looking for expertise in rotisserie and head-to-head fantasy baseball, but the position won’t involve daily fantasy sports writing.  The ideal candidate will have experience that includes writing paid fantasy baseball articles online.  Applicants should send an email to mlbtrhelp@gmail.com with the following:

  • Explanation of why you might be considered a fantasy baseball expert
  • Samples of online fantasy baseball writing

Check Out Our 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Tracker

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Need to catch up on the busiest November MLBTR has ever seen?  Our 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Tracker is currently available here.  This mobile-friendly tracker allows you to filter by signing status, team, position, years, total contract amount, qualifying offer status, and more.  You can also click on the column headers, such as the word “Amount,” to sort by that.

If you’d prefer a simple blog post list of the remaining available free agents at each position, we have that here.  And if you’re wondering who is on track for free agency after the 2022 season, check out the 2022-23 MLB Free Agent list.

I’d also like to remind you that MLBTR has a new free newsletter that goes out Monday through Friday.   Cliff Corcoran does a great job summing up the hot stove highlights of the previous day.  Sign up for that by simply clicking this link.

How The MLB Luxury Tax Thresholds Have Changed By Year

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There was a time when the MLB players’ union felt that a luxury tax is just a salary cap in another form, with is why they rejected such proposals back in 1994.  Nonetheless, in the first post-strike collective bargaining agreement, executive director Don Fehr “finally said yes to the luxury tax – the first time the union agreed to any form of payroll restraint since free agency changed everything in 1976,” to quote Jon Pessah’s book The Game.

Though Pessah called that CBA a “huge victory for Fehr and the union” for other reasons, the owners did get their foot in the door on the matter of a luxury tax.  The luxury tax wound up snowballing into a major problem for the players in recent years.

In that CBA, the tax thresholds were set like this:

  • 1996: no luxury tax
  • 1997: $51MM
  • 1998: $55MM, a 7.8% increase
  • 1999: $58.9MM, a 7.1% increase
  • 2000: no luxury tax
  • 2001: if MLBPA exercises its option for ’01, no luxury tax

Mechanisms were also put in place that could allow the 1997-99 thresholds to be higher, depending on where the fifth and sixth-highest payrolls in the game landed.  Tax rates were set at 35% on the overage for ’97-98 and 34% for ’99.

While that CBA technically ended with two years sans luxury tax, it became part of all future agreements.  The agreement that began in 2003 saw the luxury tax rebranded as the “competitive balance tax.”  The MLBPA was able to achieve an initial major increase in the thresholds from where they left off in ’99:

  • 2003: $117MM, a 98.6% increase from ’99
  • 2004: $120.5MM, a 3% increase
  • 2005: $128MM, a 6.2% increase
  • 2006: $136.5MM, a 6.6% increase

For this CBA, a concept was introduced to penalize second, third, or fourth-time offenders with a higher tax rate.  The first-time offender rates were set at 17.5% in ’03 and 22.5% in 2004-05, yet was removed entirely for ’06.  30-40% tax rates were set for teams that exceeded the threshold multiple times during that CBA.

For the CBA beginning in 2007, the tax thresholds were set as follows:

  • 2007: $148MM, an 8.4% increase
  • 2008: $155MM, a 4.7% increase
  • 2009: $162MM, a 4.5% increase
  • 2010: $170MM, a 4.9% increase
  • 2011: $178MM, a 4.7% increase

Here after an initial “new CBA” leap, we start to see the tax thresholds moving up more slowly.  The tax rates were set at 22.5%, 30%, and 40% and began penalizing teams for exceeding the thresholds in consecutive years, introducing the concept of teams “resetting” its rate by getting under the threshold for one season.

For the CBA beginning in 2012, these were the tax thresholds:

  • 2012: $178MM, no increase
  • 2013: $178MM, no increase
  • 2014: $189MM, a 6.2% increase
  • 2015: $189MM, no increase
  • 2016: $189MM, no increase

Here, the players’ union made large concessions that had a compounding effect they’re still feeling today.  If the MLBPA had achieved simply a repeat of the increases from the previous CBA, the 2016 tax threshold would have sat at about $232MM.

The next agreement introduced the concept of luxury tax tiers, adding first and second surcharge thresholds after the base tax one.  For example, 2021 included thresholds at $210MM, $230MM, and $250MM.  This CBA also introduced penalties involving the draft.

  • 2017: $195MM base tax threshold, a 3.2% increase
  • 2018: $197MM, a 1.0% increase
  • 2019: $206MM, a 4.6% increase
  • 2020: $208MM, a 1.0% increase
  • 2021: $210MM, a 1.0% increase

While better than the previous CBA, the MLBPA again agreed to tiny increases in the base tax threshold.  A simple 5% increase per year beginning in 2012 would have put the 2021 base tax threshold around $290MM, yet it sat only at $210MM.  Not coincidentally, only the Dodgers and Padres exceeded a $210MM payroll this year.  You can see the restraint this put on a club like the Yankees, which had a lower 2019 Opening Day payroll than it had in 2005.

In the current negotiations, MLB made an initial proposal that included lowering the base tax threshold to $180MM.  According to Gabe Lacques and Bob Nightengale of USA Today, “In final proposals exchanged Wednesday, players requested a $245 million luxury tax threshold, with no progressive penalties for offenders; owners are offering a $214 million threshold, rising to $220 million in the final year of a five-year agreement.”

With a request to jump to $245MM, the MLBPA is proposing a 16.7% jump over the ’21 threshold, which would only begin to make up the ground they lost due to the non-existent or miniscule increases from 2012 onward.  MLB, meanwhile, would like to increase the base tax threshold by 1.9% for 2022 and is proposing average annual increases of less than 1%.

How The MLB Minimum Salary Has Changed With Each New CBA

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collectAs we enter Day 1 of the MLB lockout, one key issue in the current labor negotiations is where the players’ minimum salary will land.  Given the union’s stated goal to get players paid more when they’re younger and more productive, it stands to reason that they’re seeking a more significant increase than usual.  The minimum salary was set at $570,500 in 2021.  It’s not known how much MLB proposed raising it in their most recent offer.  Here’s a look at how the minimum salary has changed with each new CBA.

  • 1968: Minimum salary went from $6K to $10K, a 66.7% increase
  • 1970: $10K to $12K, a 20% increase
  • 1973: $13.5K to $15K, an 11.1% increase
  • 1976: $16K to $19K, an 18.8% increase
  • 1980: $21K to $30K, a 42.9% increase
  • 1985: $40K to $60K, a 50% increase
  • 1990: $68K to $100K, a 47.1% increase
  • 1997: $109K to $150K, a 37.6% increase
  • 2003: $200K to $300K, a 50% increase
  • 2007: $327K to $380K, a 16.2% increase
  • 2012: $414K to $480K, a 15.9% increase
  • 2017: $507.5K to $535K, a 5.4% increase

In the free agency era, the minimum salary had always increased by at least 15.9% until the just-expired CBA.  There is historical precedent for a leap as high as 50%, which would mean $855,750 for 2022.  An increase of 16% would be more in line with the ’07 and ’12 CBAs, which would set the minimum at $661,780.  It should also be noted that the minimum salary typically increases each year within a CBA, with the ’20 and ’21 rates involving cost of living adjustments.

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