Luis Rodriguez, Eliezer Alfonzo Elect Free Agency
The Padres outrighted the contracts of Josh Geer, Drew Macias, Luis Rodriguez, and Eliezer Alfonzo to Triple A today, according to the AP. Rodriguez and Alfonzo elected free agency.
Rodriguez, 29, hit .202/.319/.260 in 251 plate appearances this year while playing shortstop and second base. His defense graded poorly, based on UZR. Alfonzo, 31 in February, hit .175/.197/.254 in 117 plate appearances. He logged 255.3 innings behind the plate.
Odds & Ends: Pujols, Holliday, Mauer, Reyes
Links for Tuesday…
- Chat today, 2pm CST.
- Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt believes it's possible to negotiate huge deals simultaneously with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Still, Strauss says the Cards' Monday meeting "touched on contingencies if Holliday defects."
- Joe Mauer "thinks things will work themselves out" regarding his next contract, according to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
- In a Sunday article, David Waldstein and Michael S. Schmidt of the New York Times dug into the rift between the Mets and Dodgers regarding Jose Reyes' injury.
Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Athletics. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C – Kurt Suzuki – $410K
C – Landon Powell – $400K
1B – Daric Barton – $410K
2B – Mark Ellis – $5.5MM
SS – Cliff Pennington – $400K
3B – Eric Chavez – $12MM
IF – Gregorio Petit – $405K
LF – Scott Hairston – $1.25MM+
CF – Rajai Davis – $410K
RF – Ryan Sweeney – $410K
OF – Travis Buck – $410K
DH – Jack Cust – $2.8MM+
IF/OF – Eric Patterson – $405K
SP – Dallas Braden – $410K
SP – Brett Anderson – $400K
SP – Trevor Cahill – $400K
SP – Gio Gonzalez – $405K
SP – Vin Mazzaro – $400K
RP – Mike Wuertz – $1.1MM+
RP – Brad Ziegler – $405K
RP – Andrew Bailey – $400K
RP – Joey Devine – $410K+
RP – Craig Breslow – $422K
RP – Jerry Blevins – $405K
RP – Brad Kilby – $400K
Non-tender candidates: Jack Cust, Santiago Casilla
Other commitments: Jason Giambi – $1.25MM
The A's have about $30.8MM committed before arbitration raises to Hairston, Cust, Wuertz, Casilla, and Devine. Cust and Casilla are non-tender candidates, so we'll estimate a mid-$30MM commitment for 2010. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the A's entered 2009 with a $62.3MM payroll. There hasn't been any indication that the A's plan to be big spenders this winter, but if payroll is held steady GM Billy Beane would have roughly $25MM to work with.
The 2009 A's ranked 11th in the AL with a .328 OBP and last with a .397 SLG. The offense had more of a middle-of-the-pack performance in the second half, with Davis, Sweeney, Cust, and Barton leading the way. Despite the improvement, the most obvious area for improvement in 2010 is the offense.
The rebuilding thing to do would be to give Barton one more chance to prove he can hit outside of the month of September. Powerful prospect Chris Carter is another option. But there would be little harm in adding a 2010 stopgap, someone like Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado, or Nick Johnson.
Third base is a similar situation – Brett Wallace may not be ready yet, and the A's can't count on Chavez. Why not entertain signing Adrian Beltre or Troy Glaus? Shortstop frontrunner Pennington is also unproven, but the free agent market isn't terribly appealing.
With Davis and Sweeney taking outfield spots, DH and left field are other possible areas to upgrade. MLB.com's Mychael Urban feels Beane is leaning toward tendering a contract to Cust, whose 25 home runs led the team (his .417 SLG was less inspiring). If Beane decides to make a change, he can choose from plenty of free agent DH candidates for the same $3-4MM Cust would make. We haven't heard anything about Hairston being a non-tender candidate, though he was awful in Oakland.
The A's have a stacked bullpen, especially if Devine comes back strong. One veteran free agent play for the rotation would make sense, someone like Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Randy Johnson, or Ben Sheets.
Though Oakland's veteran additions for 2009 didn't work out, fans presumably appreciated them taking a shot at contention. I think Beane should make a similar attempt to supplement the club for 2010; he could again do so without harming the long-term health of the franchise.
Billy Wagner Leaning Toward Retirement
Billy Wagner is planning to retire, based on comments the pitcher made to Mike Puma of the New York Post yesterday. It was previously thought that Wagner would seek a closing job this winter and attempt to get the 15 additional saves he needs to reach 400 for his career.
Puma admits that Wagner might just need a "cooling period" now that the Red Sox have been eliminated from the playoffs. Wagner's agent Bean Stringfellow, talking to the Boston Herald, said he believes his client will play next year. If Wagner does try to pitch in 2010, his situation will become more complicated if the Red Sox offer him arbitration (he projects as a Type A free agent).
Rockies Rumors: Betancourt, Marquis, Hawpe
With the Rockies' 2009 season over, Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post is already discussing 2010. Here's the latest:
- Look for GM Dan O'Dowd to receive a new contract soon. O'Dowd will then attempt to re-sign manager Jim Tracy.
- Rafael Betancourt has a steep $5.4MM club option for 2010. The reliever wants to return, and Renck finds it possible. He says catcher Yorvit Torrealba, who has a $4MM mutual option, is less certain to remain with the team.
- The Rockies are expected to let free agent starter Jason Marquis leave and replace him with Jeff Francis. Presumably the Rockies will not offer arbitration to Marquis, a probable Type B free agent. Jason Giambi, Jose Contreras, and Joe Beimel are possibilities to re-sign.
- Renck sees Garrett Atkins as a trade or non-tender candidate. It wouldn't make much sense for a team to acquire Atkins prior to the non-tender deadline in mid-December.
- Renck considers right fielder Brad Hawpe a trade candidate given the Rockies' outfield depth. Hawpe will earn $7.5MM in 2010, but he can void his $10MM option for 2011 if traded. During the last four seasons, Hawpe has posted OBPs of .381 or better and SLGs of .498 or better. The knock is that he can't hit lefties, but he did a tolerable job against them in 2008-09. The other knock against Hawpe is his subpar defense. He still might fit with the Cubs or Mets, in my opinion.
Giants Rumors: Sabean, Bochy, Bradley, Kikuchi
A few notes on the Giants from Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News…
- As Luke mentioned last night, Baggarly expects manager Bruce Bochy and GM Brian Sabean to sign new contracts shortly.
- Baggarly asked a Giants executive with veto power whether he'd approve an Aaron Rowand for Milton Bradley trade. The exec said yes, which makes sense with Bradley owed $21MM and Rowand owed $36MM. Nonetheless Baggarly does not expect the Giants to get involved on Bradley due to potential team chemistry issues.
- Giants scouting director John Barr recently returned from Japan, where he observed hard-throwing high school southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. Baggarly expects the Giants to "make a legitimate run" at Kikuchi if he chooses MLB. The Giants are at least one of ten teams in on the pitcher.
Minor League Free Agents
Baseball America's Matt Eddy has a list of "the first wave of minor league free agents." See anyone you like?
RHP Greg Aquino
RHP Josh Banks
3B Brian Barden
C Edwin Bellorin
RHP Kris Benson
1B Wilson Betemit
LHP Travis Blackley
RHP Bryan Bullington
LHP Brian Burres
RHP Vinnie Chulk
RHP R.A. Dickey
3B Joe Dillon
RHP Brandon Duckworth
OF Chris Duffy
RHP Geoff Geary
RHP Enrique Gonzalez
C Michel Hernandez
RHP Philip Humber
OF Mitch Jones
2B Matt Kata
LHP Javier Lopez
RHP Shane Loux
RHP Edwin Moreno
RHP Joe Nelson
C Guillermo Quiroz
RHP Steven Register
LHP Royce Ring
RHP Connor Robertson
LHP Glendon Rusch
OF Jeff Salazar
C Dane Sardinha
RHP Chris Schroder
3B Chris Shelton
2B Jason Smith
3B Craig Stansberry
RHP Denny Stark
LHP R.J. Swindle
LHP Jon Switzer
Theo Epstein Talks 2010
4:21pm: MLB.com's Ian Browne has more from Epstein and Bay. Epstein noted that discussions to date have been "under the radar screen and underreported even after the fact," and he hopes to keep them that way. Bay continued to speak highly of the Red Sox while adding the caveat that he'll test the market.
3:30pm: Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe was one of many reporters at today's press conference with Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and manager Terry Francona. Let's take a look at a few hot stove highlights:
- The Red Sox are penciling in Clay Buchholz for the 2010 rotation. We can assume Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Daisuke Matsuzaka will take three more spots. Epstein is including Tim Wakefield in planning for next year, which implies the Sox will again exercise the knuckleballer's $4MM option. My opinion – it won't be surprising to see the Red Sox sign an additional starter of the bargain variety.
- Victor Martinez is the team's starting catcher, so look for his $7.7MM club option to be picked up soon. WEEI's Mike Petraglia relays a comment from Epstein about locking up Martinez past 2010: "We'll see. We'd love to see him here long term."
- Epstein finds it unusual that the Red Sox and Jason Bay both want a new contract but nothing is in place yet. On a related note, check out this recent post from U.S.S. Mariner's Dave Cameron about the risk of signing Bay.
- Epstein spoke about 2010 possibly being the last chance for several of the team's core players to make a run at another title. David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and Josh Beckett can be free agents after next season. Petraglia quotes Epstein on Ortiz: "We need him to be a force."
- Petraglia says the Red Sox are open to picking up Alex Gonzalez's $6MM club option for 2010. Seems steep for a guy who missed all of '08 with a knee injury.
Heyman On Abreu, Fielder, Hoyer
The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…
- Heyman says the Angels and Bobby Abreu are still far apart on a new contract. Abreu earned $6MM this year.
- The Brewers will attempt to sign Prince Fielder to a long-term deal this winter. Fielder, a Scott Boras client, is signed through 2010 and under team control through 2011. Given the way teams pay for power, Fielder might expect $20MM+ to buy out free agent years.
- Heyman sees Red Sox senior VP/assistant GM Jed Hoyer as the favorite for the Padres GM job.
Which Free Agents Will Be Offered Arbitration?
For a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent, arbitration first must be offered to that player. The risk is that the player will accept, and the team will be "stuck" with that player on a non-guaranteed contract for 2010. Keep in mind that cutting a player who accepted arbitration must be done based on the player's "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" rather than the team's desire to save money.
Keep in mind also that, as Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explained last year, "There are no rules for salary reduction for players with more than six years of service time." For example, if Vladimir Guerrero accepts an arbitration offer from the Angels, the team could offer him $5MM for 2010 despite his $15MM salary in '09. (The team still might lose at a hearing though, so the risk remains).
Let's break down the ranked free agents (Type A or B) based on whether their teams will offer arbitration. Players whose options have been declined can be offered arbitration, but I've omitted those here (aside from Wagner).
Locks to be offered arb: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Randy Wolf
Likely to be offered arb: Bobby Abreu, Marlon Byrd, Marco Scutaro, Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Fernando Rodney, Adam LaRoche, Joel Pineiro
Might be offered arb: Johnny Damon, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Brandon Lyon, Bengie Molina, Nick Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Ronnie Belliard, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Scott Eyre, Kiko Calero
Needless to say, I feel that players not listed above are not likely to be offered arbitration. That's a big list; it includes players such as Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Placido Polanco, Erik Bedard, Mike Cameron, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Rafael Soriano.
Of course, this is all just one person's opinion. Let me know where you feel differently. Last year, 24 free agents were offered arbitration, and I was surprised by at least eight who weren't (Adam Dunn, Kerry Wood, Abreu, and Wolf especially).