- In a recent radio interview with 105.7 The Fan (hat tip to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), Chris Tillman reiterated that he would love to sign an extension to remain with the Orioles. There doesn’t appear to be much progress in talks between the two sides (“I haven’t heard anything, I haven’t seen anything,” Tillman said), though the right-hander did note that he lets his agent handle business negotiations until late in the process. The O’s began preliminary talks with Tillman’s representation last month, and Kubatko figures more serious discussions will take place during Spring Training to see if a deal can be reached before Opening Day. Tillman avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10.05MM deal for 2017, and he is eligible for free agency next winter.
Orioles Rumors
Orioles' Offer To Mark Trumbo Was Three Years, $40MM
- A couple details on Mark Trumbo’s market — first, Peter Gammons tweets that the Orioles’ previously reported offer to Trumbo was for three years $40MM, not $50MM-plus. That’s a relatively small offer for a player who swatted 47 home runs last season, but perhaps it’s somewhat reflective of the evident change in the market for one-dimensional sluggers, many of whom linger in free agency. A second, and perhaps related, tidbit is that the Athletics don’t seem likely to be key players in the Trumbo market, as John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group writes. The A’s strongly pursued Edwin Encarnacion, but it doesn’t appear they’re as interested in Trumbo, to whom they were connected last week.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Jonathan Schoop
Many teams use the arbitration exchange as a hard deadline for negotiations on one-year deals — a “file and trial” approach which effectively means that once figures are exchanged, the only option they’ll pursue before a hearing is a multi-year deal. (The Mets and Orioles are both adopting that approach this year, and other teams to use that strategy in the past include Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, White Sox, Pirates, Reds and Nationals.)
- The Orioles have avoided arbitration with second baseman Jonathan Schoop, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter links). He’ll receive $3.475MM, just over his projection of $3.4MM.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Britton, Machado, Tillman
1:48pm: The Orioles and Tillman have also avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $10.05MM deal, tweets Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com.
12:20pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that Manny Machado also avoided arb with an $11.5MM deal (Twitter link). That checks in $300K north of his projection from Swartz.
11:11am: The Orioles and superstar closer Zach Britton have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a hefty $11.4MM salary for the 2017 season, reports Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (on Twitter). The Scott Boras client’s salary is an exact match with the $11.4MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Britton will be arb-eligible once more next winter before becoming a free agent after the 2018 season.
Britton, 29, is coming off one of the most dominant seasons of any reliever in history. One of the best relievers in baseball (and arguably the best), Britton led the American League in saves with 47 and posted a comically low 0.54 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 67 innings of work. He also posted an outrageous 80 percent ground-ball rate that is the highest mark in Major League history of any qualified starter or reliever dating back to 2002 when the stat was first tracked.
As can be seen in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker, Britton was one of nine Orioles players that’s eligible for arbitration. The team has six players remaining, in the form of Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, Brad Brach, Jonathan Schoop, Caleb Joseph and T.J. McFarland.
Arbitration Breakdown: Zach Britton
Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2017 projections are available right here.
Zach Britton had a phenomenal 2016 campaign for the Orioles, logging 47 saves and a 0.54 ERA over 67 innings while striking out 74 batters. As a result, the dominant sinkerballer is projected for a $4.65MM raise, from $6.75MM to $11.4MM. It is rare to find a season as dominant as Britton’s 2016, so it is not surprising that he is projected to get a raise bigger than Mark Melancon’s record $4.25MM raise last year for a third-time-eligible reliever.
Melancon saved 51 games in his platform season, four more than Britton, but his 2.23 ERA is far less impressive than Britton’s 0.54. His 62 punchouts also fell shy of Britton’s 74. Therefore, his $4.25MM raise is a plausible floor for Britton already. Britton besting this by $400K, as the model expects, seems reasonable.
Jim Johnson in 2013 got a $3.88MM raise, the second highest for a third time eligible reliever behind Melancon. He had 51 saves and a 2.49 ERA, so he also meets the criteria of logging a few more saves than Britton while posting a decidedly worse ERA.
However, since Melancon did save four more games, it is worth looking to see if guys with low ERAs but slightly fewer saves did any worse than Melancon did. Looking for guys with ERAs under 2 that were closers, no names emerge in the last five years other than Aroldis Chapman, who had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA, but only got a $3.27MM raise. Clearly, every aspect of Britton’s case is much stronger than was Chapman’s, so this is not too concerning.
Heath Bell in 2011 is probably a stale comparable, although he did have a sub-2 ERA (he posted a 1.93 ERA) and he matched Britton’s 47 saves exactly. His $3.5MM raise would almost certainly be a floor for Britton as well.
Putting it all together, there is little reason to use any comparable other than Melancon here. All other potential third-time eligible relievers got smaller raises and had worse performances. Britton should easily clear Melancon’s $4.25MM number, and the model’s $4.65MM projected raise seems as reasonable as anything. Because Baltimore is now moving to a “file-and-trial” approach, though, the stakes are raised as the sides try to work out an agreement on the heels of Britton’s historic season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets, Orioles To Employ “File-And-Trial” Arbitration Approach
The Mets and Orioles will adopt a “file-and-trial” approach to their arbitration-eligible players this year, as Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) and Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (also on Twitter) report. That means that the organizations will only negotiate with players up until tomorrow’s 1pm EST deadline to exchange filing figures; if no deal is found with a given player, they’ll take the case to arbitration.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained the “file-and-trial” stance a few years back. Some organizations adopt it as a blanket rule, with at least some of those willing to make exceptions only in cases of multi-year arrangements. Others will utilize it on a case-by-case basis, notifying certain players of that intention in the course of negotiations.
It’s always tough to keep tabs on precisely which teams utilize this strategy, and it can certainly change — especially with front office turnover. At last check, though, file-and-trial teams include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, and White Sox. And there are at least five others that seem to take that approach with some players: the Brewers, Indians, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds.
By adopting this approach, the New York and Baltimore organizations have turned up the heat on their final talks with arb-eligible players. As things stand, the O’s have yet to reach terms with a variety of notable players, led by Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Jonathan Schoop. The club also has to work out salaries with Brad Brach and Caleb Joseph. It’s not an easy season for the Mets, either; they have yet to settle with Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, and Josh Edgin.
As always, you can view MLBTR’s arbitration projects right here, and track the players who have and haven’t agreed to terms with our arbitration tracker.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Ryan Flaherty, T.J. McFarland
7:41pm: Righty T.J. McFarland has also agreed to terms, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. He’ll earn $685K in 2017, just shy of his $700K projection.
6:35pm: The Orioles have avoided arbitration with infielder Ryan Flaherty, according to Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com (via Twitter). He’ll earn $1.8MM and become the first arb-eligible Oriole to settle this year.
Flaherty will take home just a shade more than the $1.7MM that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected. The 30-year-old made just 176 MLB plate appearances in 2016 and managed only three home runs, limiting his earning power in his final run through arbitration.
Of course, Baltimore values Flaherty primarily as a versatile bench piece. He’s capable of playing all over the infield, including shortstop when necessary. And though he has never produced much at the plate, Flaherty has typically rated well as a baserunner.
Orioles Rumors: Trumbo, Alvarez, Pitching Help
In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports provides some new twists in the ongoing saga between Mark Trumbo and the Orioles. Trumbo reportedly rejected a four-year proposal worth more than $50MM earlier this offseason, and Rosenthal hears that he recently asked Baltimore for a three-year deal worth about $50MM. Since that request, Trumbo’s camp has indicated a willingness to take an offer between $40-50MM over three years, he continues. As Rosenthal notes, Trumbo does have interest elsewhere. But, the Rockies would have to move an outfielder and shift Ian Desmond off of first base to facilitate a signing, while the Rangers are currently engaged with Mike Napoli and have suggested on multiple occasions this winter that major free-agent signings aren’t in the cards due to financial reasons.
- The Orioles are interested in re-signing Pedro Alvarez to slot in as their DH and replace some of the lost production if Trumbo signs elsewhere. It’s been a quiet market for Alvarez (and most first base/DH types) thus far, but the soon-to-be 30-year-old slugger enjoyed a strong season against right-handed pitching with the O’s in 2016. Last year, “El Toro” batted .249/.322/.504 with 22 homers on the season as a whole. That line includes a dismal .243/.293/.378 showing in a small sample of 41 plate appearances against left-handers. In 334 PAs against righties, Alvarez slashed .251/.326/.522 with 21 of his 22 big flies. From my vantage point, the O’s could use another left-handed stick in their lineup, as right now only Seth Smith, Hyun Soo Kim and Chris Davis project as regulars in the lineup, and Ryan Flaherty is the only lefty on the bench. Adding a switch-hitter like Angel Pagan to handle one outfield slot and moving Smith to a DH platoon with either Christian Walker or Trey Mancini makes a fair amount of sense as well, in my eyes. The O’s are also eyeing left-handed relievers and rotation depth, per Rosenthal.
Orioles, Tim Berry Agree To Minors Deal
- Left-hander Tim Berry announced (on Instagram) that he’s back in the Orioles organization (h/t: MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko). The 25-year-old rated as one of the Orioles’ top 30 prospects from 2011-15, in the eyes of Baseball America, but the past two seasons have been a struggle for him in the minors. Berry logged an unsightly 7.32 ERA in 82 1/3 innings with the Orioles’ Double-A affiliate in 2015, and he posted a 6.32 ERA across two levels between the Padres and Marlins organizations in 2016.
Orioles Still Interested In Michael Bourn
- Meanwhile, per Rosenthal, the Orioles remain interested in Michael Bourn despite adding another left-handed-hitting outfielder in Seth Smith. Baltimore wants to boost the glovework in its outfield mix, he says, and evidently remains favorably disposed toward the veteran after his late-season run with the club in 2016. It’s not immediately clear how things would look if Bourn joins Smith and Hyun Soo Kim as southpaw-swinging options, though presumably either of the existing players could also mix in at DH, while Bourn could also spell Adam Jones in center.
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