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Rockies Rotation In Shambles

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The Rockies are five games out in the NL West and two out in the Wild Card.  Baseball Prospectus sets their playoff odds at a healthy 22-27%.  Their main strength has been team OBP (second best in the league).  The Rockies’ offense has dominated at Coors Field.  They’ve also had some fine relief work from Manny Corpas, Jeremy Affeldt, and even Jorge Julio. 

But to have a legitimate shot, the Rockies need to sort out their starting rotation.  According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, injuries to Jason Hirsh, Rodrigo Lopez, and Aaron Cook have decimated the starting staff.  The current five consists of Jeff Francis, Josh Fogg, Ubaldo Jimenez, Elmer Dessens, and maybe rookie Franklin Morales.  Recently-acquired Ramon Ortiz will stay in the pen for now.  There doesn’t seem to be talk of using Taylor Buchholz in the rotation again.

While Jimenez was dominant yesterday against the Padres, control figures to remain a problem for him.  Same deal with Morales.  Cook should only miss three starts, and the Rockies desperately need him back.  Lopez is out for the season and Hirsh’s contribution will be minimal.  Fogg and Dessens are mostly just filler.

Since it’s August, the only real trade possibility is to acquire more filler.  Renck specifically mentions Steve Trachsel and David Wells as pitchers on the radar.  We’ve also seen the Rox linked to Josh Towers.  Trachsel and Towers have already cleared waivers, and Wells probably will soon.  As always, good starting pitching is hard to find.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Possible Waiver Deals

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Ken Rosenthal has a new post up; below are some points of interest for rumor-hounds like us. 

  • Josh Towers and Steve Trachsel have both cleared waivers.  You’ll find their contract info as well as a complete list of those who have cleared waivers here.  Rosenthal says the Rockies are monitoring both pitchers; they were forced to start journeyman Tim Harikkala today.  The Rox also called the A’s about Chad Gaudin but found the price prohibitive.  Another reason a Gaudin trade wouldn’t make sense is that he wouldn’t pass through waivers. 
  • Towers is attracting multiple suitors.  I think he’ll have moderate success in the NL as a #4 starter.
  • Mark Loretta and Mike Lamb were both claimed on waivers and then pulled back, so they’re not going anywhere. 
  • The Yankees have no reason to throw down a chunk of change on a free agent starter this winter.  They’re all set for 2008 with a formidable rotation of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, and Andy Pettitte.  I think we’ve learned by now that there’s really no such thing as a surplus of starting pitching, so I imagine the Yanks will only trade Kei Igawa in the right deal.  Buster Olney said this morning that there was a 50% chance of Igawa going to the Padres soon.  Additionally, it will be nice to have Ian Kennedy around as the sixth starter.

Rosenthal’s Latest Video: Pudge, Bedard, Burrell

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Ken Rosenthal has a new video up; check it out.  Some highlights:

  • Back in April, I made predictions of whether various club options will be exercised for 2008.  My opinion on many of the option decisions has changed since then.  One example is Ivan Rodriguez.  At the time I said his defense and power would justify the $10MM difference between his $13MM option and $3MM buyout.  Currently, Pudge is hitting for his usual decent average but has drawn just five walks in 379 plate appearances.  Rosenthal believes the Tigers might opt for the buyout, especially if Rodriguez tails off as the season wears on.  Maybe so, but at effectively one year, $10MM, they might still go for it.  The other options are limited. 
  • The Orioles’ #1 priority for the offseason is to sign ace Erik Bedard to a long-term contract extension.  But if the two parties aren’t in the same ballpark, they could exact a king’s ransom in a trade.  As I said before, Bedard could be a $20MM+ pitcher if he stays on course through the 2009 season.
  • Pat Burrell cleared waivers, but the Phillies have no intention of trading him given the way he’s been hitting.  Burrell has an absurd .392/.519/.725 line since July 1.  No one has been better in OBP over that time period, and only Hanley Ramirez has a better SLG.  Anyway, I’ve updated the list of players who have cleared waivers.

Devil Rays Interested In Fernando Cabrera

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According to Marc Lancaster of the Tampa Tribune, the Devil Rays are interested in recently released 25 year-old reliever Fernando Cabrera.  In the past, it was revealed that the Orioles inquired on him.

Since he was released, Cabrera is eligible to sign with any team.  According to R.J. Anderson of Drays Bay:

"Cabrera throws a 92-95 fastball with a good hard splitter and a slider that produces a load of swings and misses."

Random Rumors: Erstad, Gagne, Podsednik

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Here’s a smattering of random rumors.

  • The Twins have tried and failed to acquire Mike Piazza, Jermaine Dye, and Kevin Mench.  Instead of Dye, the White Sox offered up 33 year-old outfielder Darin Erstad, he of the .671 OPS. The Twins passed.
  • Eric Gagne will apparently earn Type A status as a free agent, despite pitching only two innings in 2006.  Rob Bradford has the details.  This was apparently a big factor for the Red Sox in making the deal.
  • The Chicago Sun-Times debunks a rumor that the Cubs are trying to trade for Scott Podsednik.  How come I wasn’t told about this rumor previously?  Who started it?  I feel left out. 
  • The Pirates and Tigers are still talking about Jack Wilson.  Apparently the deadline version of the deal died when the Bucs asked for Craig Monroe.  Really?  The deal died over that guy?
  • Gordon Edes has a Major League source indicating that the Orioles are "the kind of team that might have interest" in Wily Mo Pena.  That’s not the same as saying that they do have interest, however.

Erik Bedard’s Long-Term Future

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According to that lovable Baseball Prospectus stat, VORP, Erik Bedard and Mark Buehrle are in a dead heat for the second best performance by an American League pitcher to date.  Dan Haren still maintains the lead.  Haren also heads up ESPN’s Cy Young predictor, but that’s where the rankings deviate.  John Lackey, Josh Beckett, C.C. Sabathia, and J.J. Putz all rank ahead of Bedard for the Cy Young based on ESPN’s model.  VORP and awards voting are two very different things.

But Bedard has won his last eight decisions, and could move up the rankings quickly.  Bedard’s age 28 breakout season has included major improvements in all of his peripheral stats, especially his strikeout rate.  He’s not due for free agency until after the 2009 season, and earns only $3.4MM this year.  Sometime last year, the Orioles offered Bedard a four-year extension worth less than $20MM.  That would’ve bought out one year of free agency.  Of course, Bedard passed. 

The price since has gone up drastically, and will continue rising if Bedard can log several 200 inning seasons.  You have to think he’ll take his big shot at free agency when he’s at his peak value.  And he wouldn’t be in the $14MM hometown discount Mark Buehrle range.  I think he’d be up at in the $18MM Zito/Zambrano range, and that would be if he reached free agency this winter.  Imagine how things will be when two more winters pass.  We can barely picture it.  I can see Bedard getting a massive deal at  $22MM per.  The Blue Jays might be a fit.

Olney: Tejada, Piazza Put On Waivers

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ESPN’s Buster Olney has some waiver activity for us this evening.  Keep in mind that many, many players are put on waivers; there’s no risk for a team in doing so.

Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada was placed on waivers, and the White Sox made a claim.  Olney simply says that the two sides "did not work out a deal," but doesn’t say whether they negotiated.  The Sox have had their eye on Tejada for a while; they had talks with the Orioles about him back in December of 2005.  Olney says the Orioles will now keep Tejada for at least the rest of the season.  There’s no real rush for the Orioles; they can get more teams involved during the winter meetings.

Tejada makes another $3.85MM this year plus $13MM in each of the 2008 and 2009 seasons.  He’s also owed $4MM in signing bonus money spread over those last two seasons.  So, $33.85MM for 2.32 seasons.  That’s an average annual value of about $14.6MM.  He’d certainly create some much-needed excitement on the south side of Chicago.

Olney also adds that Mike Piazza passed through waivers without being claimed.  Any team in baseball could’ve had Piazza if willing to pay the remaining $2.6MM on his contract.  Instead, the A’s will try to work out a trade and would most likely have to assume some of Piazza’s salary.  The Twins, Angels, and Mariners seem to be the main possibilities.    

Orioles Interested In Fernando Cabrera

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The Indians have ten days to waive, trade, or release 25 year-old reliever Fernando Cabrera.  By my count they’ll need to do something by Friday.  The best option would be to work out a trade, and the Orioles called to inquire.

The O’s would have to put Cabrera on the 25-man roster, or else try to pass Cabrera through waivers themselves.  It would make more sense to carry Cabrera than Paul Shuey, so this shouldn’t be a problem.

Healey’s Latest: Wilkerson, Marte

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Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has a new post up with some good trade rumors:

  • The Mets are talking to the Rangers about Brad Wilkerson, not Eric Gagne.  This makes sense, as Wilkerson has hit lefties well this year and can play right field.
  • The Mets are also talking to the Reds; could’ve been about Ken Griffey Jr. or David Weathers.  From what we’ve heard, though, Weathers is not available.  And would Junior approve a trade to the Mets?  He vetoed a trade there once before.
  • The Pirates want Alan Horne from the Yankees for Damaso Marte.  Given that Brian Cashman didn’t seem to want to give him up for Gagne, I don’t see this happening.
  • The Orioles are shopping Chad Bradford, but the Yankees aren’t allowed in the store.

Mets Hunting For Reliever, Second Baseman

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Pretty much the same old story with the Mets, though Joel Sherman and Mark Hale of the New York Post do have some new tidbits.

  • The authors name Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, and Eric Gagne as relievers on the radar.  However it seems the asking price is too high for Gagne and the Indians have become the frontrunner for Dotel (they may have passed the Dodgers).  Shawn Chacon doesn’t catch the Mets’ eye, and they don’t want Chad Bradford’s three-year commitment.  They had that option with Bradford this winter.  I think that logic is silly – Bradford’s pitched well this year, and acquiring him now would be akin to a two-year contract.  Sometimes it seems GMs pass over certain players because they simply want to add a fresh name.
  • You can add Al Reyes to the mix for the Mets, according to the St. Petersburg Times.
  • The Mets think many of the available starting pitchers could be traded in August – Jose Contreras, Kyle Lohse, and Steve Trachsel for example.  I don’t agree on Lohse – he’ll be traded today or tomorrow.  But Contreras’s contract would probably get through waivers without a claim.
  • The Post reports no substantive talks to the Royals about Mark Grudzielanek.  An inquiry has been made on Mark Loretta. 
  • Meanwhile, Newsday says the Twins are open to trading Luis Castillo but don’t want any of the current Major League Mets.  Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger seems to disagree, citing a Twins scout at Shea yesterday.  Graziano does not believe Castillo would get through waivers unclaimed.  He believes the Twins want Double A starter Kevin Mulvey and then some (perhaps Ruben Gotay).
  • Graziano says a deal for Castillo could be expanded to include 28 year-old righty reliever Juan Rincon.  Rincon had been consistently solid for three years (perhaps aided by steroids) but has seen his strikeout rate and overall performance plummet in 2007.  Rincon is under control next year and will make at least $2MM again.
  • Graziano notes that the Mets have talked to the A’s about Joe Blanton, but Billy Beane wants Lastings Milledge.  The Mets can’t do that without damaging the current team.  The Mets could actually add an outfielder in Jay Payton; the Cubs’ interest has waned.  The Sammy Sosa rumor also has some legs, as the Mets could bring him in to platoon with Shawn Green if they decide they can tolerate the sideshow.
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