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Needs and Luxuries: Baltimore Orioles

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Here’s a look at Baltimore’s current setup for 2008.

C – Ramon Hernandez
1B – Kevin Millar
2B – Brian Roberts
SS – Miguel Tejada
3B – Melvin Mora
LF – Jay Gibbons
CF – Jay Payton
RF – Nick Markakis
DH – Aubrey Huff

SP – Erik Bedard
SP – Jeremy Guthrie
SP – Daniel Cabrera
SP – Adam Loewen
SP – Brian Burres/Garrett Olson/Hayden Penn

Setup/Closer:  Jamie Walker/Chad Bradford

Needs

Take a look at that starting lineup again.  The Orioles are a train wreck, and need to be blown to smithereens and rebuilt.  Their need is pretty easy to assess – they need cheap, young, talented players.  Sure, all teams need those, but the O’s need to abandon any pretense of winning in 2008. 

The ’07 Orioles were below average in every regard.  The long-term Orioles need corner infielders, a left fielder, and a center fielder at minimum.  If you don’t think they can win in by 2009, then they need middle infielders too.

The O’s need another reliable starter to complement the Bedard-Guthrie tandem.  They need to be patient with Cabrera, who at least set a career high in innings and starts.  They need some homegrown or otherwise cheap relievers with a pulse. 

Most of all, the Orioles need fiscal responsibility.  Hopefully Andy MacPhail will bring it.

Luxuries

The Orioles have frontline talent in Tejada, Bedard, Roberts, Markakis, and Matt Wieters.  The last two are cornerstones.

Tejada is not a part of the long-term future.  Despite signs of decline, he can still be dealt for a nice bevy of young players.  Maybe not a Teixeira-sized bounty, but two quality players.  The Tigers, Phillies, Red Sox, White Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, and half of the NL Central ought to be interested.  Tejada is the team’s most tradeable asset and he absolutely must be cashed in this winter.

The O’s are at a crossroads with Bedard and Roberts.  They’re locked in through 2009, and would have a lot of value on the trade market.  The Orioles have to at least listen on these guys.  Bedard is going to cost a king’s ransom to sign long-term, and Roberts may prefer to leave for a winner.

Then there’s the veteran riff-raff.  The Orioles have tons of expendable veterans with moderate to questionable trade value: Hernandez, Millar, Mora, Gibbons, Payton, Huff, Walker, and Bradford.  Gibbons and Mora are un-tradeable, but the rest should be swapped out for the most interesting 0-3 players available.  The Orioles must remain open to eating salary if they can in effect purchase some quality prospects.

Orioles Claim Novoa; More Ex-Cubs To Come?

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As far as historians can tell, the Ex-Cub Factor curse was broken in 2001 by the Diamondbacks.  If you’re not familiar, the Ex-Cub Factor says that a team with three or more ex-Cubs cannot win the World Series.  Regardless, the Indians are in decent shape as they have only two (Joe Borowski and Kenny Lofton).  I think the Rockies only have LaTroy Hawkins.

The Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan recently noted that the Orioles are stocking up on ex-Cubs, the latest being nondescript reliever Roberto Novoa.  Former Cubs president and GM Andy MacPhail has already added three to the four that were previously on the roster.

I mention all of this because of Sullivan’s last line, that MacPhail might take a look at free agents Kerry Wood and Michael Barrett this winter.  Wood I can see – he fits in with most teams at the right price as an intriguing yet high-risk swingman.  As for Barrett – perhaps the O’s would pursue him on a bargain one-year deal if they manage to trade Ramon Hernandez.  Hernandez makes $7.5MM in ’08, $8MM in ’09, and probably a $1MM buyout in ’10.  So, $16.5MM over the next two years.  If the O’s pay $5MM or so, teams like the Mets, Yankees, Rockies, or Marlins could be interested.    

Cardinals Have Work To Do

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Joe Strauss has had several insightful articles lately about the future of the Cardinals.  Let’s discuss.

  • The Cardinals have $83.8MM committed to 12 players for 2008.  Even worse, they don’t know what they’re going to get out of Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Chris Carpenter, Juan Encarnacion, and Mark Mulder. They are spending $45MM on those five and may get very little production.
  • Next year’s payroll may approach $115MM on the high end, but that doesn’t mean the Cards have $30MM to burn.  Their 0-3 guys will earn roughly $5MM in aggregate, and the arbitration-eligible group may run another $5MM even if a few are cut loose.  So I’m thinking more like $20MM to burn, and Walt Jocketty will have to stretch that money pretty far.
  • The Cardinals need a power hitter, two starters, and a shortstop.  Tony La Russa, if he returns, won’t be "going young."
  • Joel Pineiro could be one of the starters, but if the Cards view him as a cheap #5 they’re going to be disappointed.  He’ll get paid.
  • An earlier Strauss article has a couple of rumors of note.  We learned that the Cards were fairly close to signing Miguel Batista last winter and almost traded Anthony Reyes to the Phillies this summer.

Here’s what I see happening this winter.  The Cards will fill the rotation spots with one mid-level signing and one cheaper wild card type guy.  I could see a Carlos Silva being paired with a Matt Clement.  Randy Wolf could fill the wild card role if the Dodgers won’t have him back.

It might make sense to fill the shortstop hole and need for a power bat in one fell swoop.  On the surface it seems like Miguel Tejada would fit the bill and Edgar Renteria wouldn’t, though Renteria outslugged Tejada this year.  Regardless I expect the Cardinals to make an aggressive push for one of them (Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos got me thinking along these lines).

Could A-Rod Save the O’s?

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Update:  Beat writer Jeff Zrebiec reports that yesterday Miguel Tejada told O’s President of Baseball Operations Andy McPhail, "I don’t care about changing positions if we’re going to be a winner, and I want to be on a team that is going to compete and win."  That is a change of tune from the once stubborn shortstop.  Orioles Manager Dave Trembley also said, "I fully expect that he’ll be a major part of this team next season."

The Orioles pitchers have been going the extra mile to make Alex Rodriguez feel at home in Camden Yards this weekend, writes Peter Schmuck.  Schmuck doesn’t add too much to the notion; however, he does suggest that, for a team at the mercy of indecision – do we sign big names or rebuild from within? – Alex Rodriguez, should he opt out of his contract, is one apparent solution.

The O’s need desperately to revive their franchise and A-Rod could certainly do that.  A new long term contract for Arod will have him chasing baseball’s greatest records with whom he signs.  Meanwhile, Miguel Tejada will either be moved to 3B or another team.  Considering his decline in defense, productivity, and attitude it seems the Orioles should lower their demands and trade him this offseason.  That would open up an obvious hole at shortstop, a spot once celebrated by Cal Ripken, and an opportunity that could entice Rodriguez and save the Orioles.

That said, I’m not sure the O’s could afford a potential $30MM player.  They have a total payroll of $93.5MM in 2007, already up 20% from 2006, and at an all-time high.  If they deal Tejada, it’s probable they swallow some of his $13MM/year.  The departure of Benson and Wright free up another $14MM.  If they could void Jay Gibbons’ contract, they’d be looking in the ballpark of $30MM before arbitration for Erik Bedard and others, various departures, etc.  It seems probable they would have to again increase payroll to afford A-Rod.

Posted by: Nat Boyle

The Miguel Tejada Situation

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Jeff Zrebiec, who does a fine job covering the Orioles for the Baltimore Sun, has a thorough dissection of the Miguel Tejada situation.  To sum it up:

  • The general sentiment within the organization seems to be that Tejada has slipped significantly on defense.  There’s talk of moving him to third base and Melvin Mora back to the outfield.  It seems that Tejada would be open to this.  As we saw with Alfonso Soriano, he really doesn’t have a choice.
  • Zrebiec says that trade rumors will again swirl around Tejada this winter. He didn’t want to move to third base for the Angels; has anything changed?  Tejada again has no choice here because he does not have a no-trade clause.  He makes $13MM in ’08 and the same in ’09.
  • Tejada’s OPS is down to.800, lowest it’s been since ’03.  It’s high time to trade him; Zrebiec talked to some execs who think the Orioles can still get two high-ceiling prospects.
  • If the Orioles want Tejada at third, I imagine an acquiring team would too.  Conveniently, the free agent market for 3Bs is weak beyond A-Rod and Lowell.  The Tigers, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Astros,  Brewers (Braun to left), Dodgers, Giants, or Diamondbacks could look to use him there.  The Cubs and White Sox seem more likely to try him at shortstop.  Tons of options here.

Could Orioles Void Gibbons’ Contract?

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Sean Welsh of the Baltimore Examiner has a source indicating that the Orioles may try to void the remaining two years and $11.9MM on Jay Gibbons’ contract based on allegations of steroid use. 

While the O’s wouldn’t mind getting out from the lousy contract they signed, it seems highly unlikely.  There’s no precedent for it; the Yankees wanted out of the Giambi contract and failed.  There’s no language in Gibbons’ contract about steroids.  He never failed a test that we know of.  And the original SI.com report doesn’t say Gibbons used steroids, just that he received them.

If somehow the Orioles did succeed, perhaps the Blue Jays would look into the same regarding Troy Glaus.  He’ll make $23.5MM over 2008-09 and has a full no-trade clause.  The Angels could try to void the Gary Matthews Jr. contract.  Perhaps if the Mitchell Report names certain players, that will carry enough weight to void contracts.  It’d still be tough to get past the Players Union though.

Tigers Trade/Signing Speculation

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Lynn Henning of the Detroit News posted a Q&A yesterday, giving his informed opinion on the Tigers’ various hot stove situations.  Below are some highlights.

  • Henning expects Kenny Rogers to be with the Tigers in 2008, and I think that’s the general sentiment around baseball.  Rogers has already stated that it’s the Tigers or retirement in 2008.  I’ll guess a $6MM base salary plus incentives to make $10MM possible.
  • Henning sees the Tigers picking up Ivan Rodriguez’s $13MM option for ’08, for lack of a better option.  Given the $3MM buyout it’s kind of a like a one-year, $10MM deal.  Ken Rosenthal opined back on August 11th that the Tigers would choose the buyout, but he also felt the team was "almost certain" to exercise the option when discussing it in April.
  • The price for Miguel Tejada – $26MM over two years plus a bevy of young players – is considered too high.  I’m not sure where the Tigers payroll will be in ’08; they opened ’07 with a team-record $95MM mark.  Based on my back of the napkin estimates, the Tigers will have to pay out a net $7.5MM extra based on escalating salaries of players already under contract.  Contracts for Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Jeremy Bonderman will contribute to a $19MM increase, while the losses of Todd Jones, Sean Casey, and Neifi Perez will save the team $11.5MM.  The net effect is the $7.5MM increase, which doesn’t account for replacements for the players lost.
  • One minor offseason acquisition for Detroit could be a left-handed hitting outfielder who can play first base. Luis Gonzalez, Mark Sweeney, or Darin Erstad could fit the bill.

Rosenthal’s Latest Videos: Hunter, Piazza

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A couple of Ken Rosenthal new videos – Inside Pitch and Full Count – are up at FOXSports.com.  Here’s a summary of the rumor-related stuff.

  • Rosenthal says Torii Hunter rejected a four-year, $56MM offer from the Twins.  However, Hunter said today that he received no such offer.  The Twins approached him about a contract extension, but he’ll wait until the winter to negotiate.  At any rate, Rosenthal believes Hunter will end up in the $18MM per year territory occupied by comparables Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells.
  • Mike Piazza could be an option for the Tigers if Gary Sheffield’s shoulder problems linger.  Currently Sheff is looking to return in early September.  Piazza has cleared waivers, so he can be traded to any team.  He hasn’t been hitting this month (.654 OPS).
  • The Orioles have a couple of valuable trading chips in Kevin Millar and Steve Trachsel.  Trax has cleared waivers; Millar is an unknown.  Trachsel is back on the radar with a 2.53 August ERA (though he’s whiffed only five in 32 innings).
  • Rosenthal says the Marlins will almost certainly explore Dontrelle Willis trades this winter.

Orioles Sign Fernando Cabrera

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The Orioles already plucked Jeremy Guthrie from the Indians and turned him into a credible American League starter.  Today, they signed another former Indian in 25 year-old reliever Fernando Cabrera.  Can Leo Mazzone mold this electric arm into the team’s future closer?

There’s a Guthrie connection here, as the two hurlers were teammates for the Buffalo Bisons.  Dave Trembley saw them up close and personal as manager of the Ottawa Lynx.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Damon, Glaus, Wells

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up; here are some rumor-related points of interest.

  • As you know, it doesn’t make sense for the Yankees to keep both Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon around for 2008.  It’s just not an efficent way to spend $29MM.  Rosenthal says Damon would be open to waiving his no-trade clause, if the Yankees struck a deal with a team that fell under his 12-team protection.  Damon is apparently open to regular playing time on teams not located on the West Coast.  The White Sox, Phillies, Braves, or Astros might make sense, in my opinion.  The Yanks’ ability to pull an exercise-and-trade with Abreu’s 2008 option is hindered by his full no-trade protection.
  • Rosenthal believes the Blue Jays might aggressively shop Troy Glaus this winter.  Glaus surprisingly cleared waivers recently.  Glaus is holding all the cards – he has a full no-trade clause and a player option for 2009.
  • The Rockies will pass on David Wells, but the Dodgers are still interested.  The Rox might still go for Steve Trachsel if they opt for experience over potential.
  • Craig Monroe seems to be an option for second-tier clubs, especially if he becomes a free agent.  The Giants will pass. 
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