Big Hype Prospects

The Cardinals are making waves on the big prospect front, and we’re here to cover it. 

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Gorman, 22, 2B/3B, STL (AAA)
147 PA, 15 HR, 3 SB, .308/.367/.677

Once the move is official, the Cardinals will become the first team to roster two Nolans at once (I assume). Baseball has come a long way since its origins. From 1878 through 1885, the sport featured a player known as The Only Nolan.

Trivia aside, Gorman will be the latest top prospect to make his debut. Power has always been his calling card, though this is the first season he’s getting to it in games at such a blistering rate. It comes at a price. He had a 34 percent strikeout rate, and he didn’t walk often (8.2 percent walk rate). In my experience, prospects with questionable discipline tend to have volatile debuts. Opponents sometimes quickly seize upon the player’s weaknesses, making it necessary for the hitter to immediately adjust. Other times, opponents accidentally wander into the batter’s nitro zone, leading to an explosive debut. The slump comes later. Players with these plate discipline markers always slump at some point. We’ll soon see if Gorman enters the league with a rampage, a whimper, or something in between.

Matthew Liberatore, 22, SP, STL (AAA)
40 IP, 10.35 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.83 ERA

I’ve been wondering which of Liberatore or Zack Thompson would make their debut first. We now have our answer. Originally acquired in the Randy Arozarena trade, Liberatore was viewed by many at the time as the best player in the trade. Arozarena’s early-career heroics led us to revise our opinion of what looked like a rare misstep for the Rays, but Liberatore is now poised to help complete the analysis.

As a public, we’ve learned a lot about pitching since that trade, and new findings help to put the deal in context. While the southpaw grades out well on a pitch-by-pitch basis – his fastball is mid-90s, his curve has lovely shape, and his slider is a borderline wipeout offering – the repertoire as a whole doesn’t quite mesh. His fastball is built to work low in the zone so it doesn’t tunnel with his curve. It also plays down for other reasons – in short, some hitters are able to identify it out of the hand. There’s still enough here for a solid big-league pitcher, the profile just isn’t as exciting as it once was.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
39 PA, 2 HR, .316/.333/.553

Thomas is off to a sizzling start. As expected, he’s hitting for average and even has a pair of home runs. Beneath the surface are a few modest causes for concern. He’s known for his plate discipline, but his 2.6 percent walk and 20.5 percent strikeout rates are both worse than many hoped. His swing rates on pitches in and out of the zone are roughly league average. As an industry, we expected him to be more discerning. Thomas is a ground ball-oriented hitter who uses all fields. The profile remains that of a leadoff hitter who can go 15/15 while posting a top batting average and on-base percentage.

Royce Lewis, 23, SS, MIN (AAA)
(MLB) 40 PA, 2 HR, .308/.325/.564

Lewis had a lovely debut for the Twins. He was neither overmatched nor out of his element. The top prospect showed he belonged by flashing power, a high rate of contact, and adequate plate discipline. His aggressiveness as a hitter often worked against him in the lower minors, but Lewis has worked to improve. He posted a 15.3 percent walk rate in Triple-A. While his 2.5 percent walk rate in the majors implies he was free swinging, his swing rates at pitches in and out of the zone were roughly league average. His two home runs were backed by gaudy exit velocities. He maxed out at 114-mph, on par with Mike Trout (114.4), Julio Rodriguez (114), and Bryce Harper (113.8), among others. 

For now, he returns to Triple-A in deference to Carlos Correa. The move raised some eyebrows (including mine) due to the struggles of Jose Miranda (.094/.143/.189) and Gio Urshela (.229/.293/.330). Having shown his bat belongs, Lewis will presumably spend the next few weeks preparing to return at a new position. In his first game back at Triple-A, he went 3-for-3 with a home run and a stolen base.

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
37.1 IP, 13.74 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 2.65 ERA

While we were looking elsewhere, Rodriguez might have completed the final step in his ascension to the Majors. On Tuesday, he faced 23 batters while pitching 5.1 innings. He’d faced 19 batters in his previous four starts. He held the Charlotte Knights scoreless on three hits, three walks, and 11 strikeouts. If there’s a small measure of concern for the right-handed changeup artist, it’s that he’s allowed 4.74 BB/9 over his last four starts. We’re approaching a point in the season where teams might be tempted to push a debut past the nebulous Super Two deadline. That would probably entail at least another full month in the minors.

Five More

Adley Rutschman (24): Rutschman watch continues unabated. He’s passed the rehab hurdles set for him. Over the last week, he hit .261/.370/.522 with two home runs, three walks, and one strikeout. His debut could come within the next week, possibly even this weekend.

C.J. Abrams (21): After skipping Triple-A by earning a spot on the Opening Day roster, Abrams looked overmatched in 65 big-league plate appearances. Optioned to the minors, he’s hitting .216/.293/.459 with three home runs and three steals in 41 Triple-A plate appearances. The results are modestly encouraging despite the low average and OBP.

Marco Luciano (20): Last season, Luciano’s plate approach deteriorated upon a promotion to High-A. Repeating the level, he’s back to his usual ways, hitting .300/.366/.530 with six home runs in 112 plate appearances. He’s hit especially well over his last 60 plate appearances. He’s trending towards a promotion to Double-A.

Chase Silseth (22): Silseth, who also appeared here last week, had a strong debut. He recorded an 11.1 percent swinging strike rate thanks mostly to his frequently-used splitter. His fastball and slider also looked like plus offerings.

Corbin Carroll (21): Over the last week, Carroll hit .435/.552/1.043 with three home runs, two triples, a double, and two stolen bases. He’s overdue for a promotion to Triple-A. Should that go equally well, we could see him in the Majors later this season.

This week, we check in on three prospects already in the Majors and two more on their way. 

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (AAA)
26 PA, 1 HR, .200/.385/.350

After quickly trouncing High- and Double-A competition, Rutschman has settled into Triple-A over the last week. While his stats at Norfolk aren’t yet glowing, he is nearing a promotion, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic. First, he has a couple boxes to tick to complete his rehab journey from a triceps injury. The most important step is starting at catcher multiple days in a row. Thus far, he’s caught only three of six games in Triple-A. Encouragingly, he delivered his first home run of the season on Thursday. He’s also demonstrating the quality plate discipline and contact skills associated with his previous rise through the system.

Connolly believes a promotion will come this month and perhaps as soon as next week. While many would undoubtedly like to see him arrive on Monday for the start of a home stand, that might be too soon for Rutschman to complete his rehab goals. Next weekend or the following week make for reasonable expectations.

George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)
6 IP, 0.00 ERA, 10.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9

Last week’s Big Hype Prospects noted the potential for Kirby to fill Matt Brash’s spot in the Seattle rotation. That potential became reality on Sunday. Against the Rays, he faced 21 batters, allowing four hits and recording seven strikeouts. He did a fair amount of nibbling in his debut – only roughly half of his offerings were in the strike zone. Despite this, he was efficient, needing just under four pitches per batter. He also induced 14 whiffs out of 81 pitches thrown. He mostly relied on his fastball and slider while showing the occasional curve and changeup.

As several observers noted, Kirby’s fastball velocity plunged throughout the game. Six innings and 21 batters faced both stand out as season-highs, and it’s fair to wonder if debut jitters had him overamped in the early innings. Kirby’s next test comes Saturday against the Mets. We’ll want to see if he shifts how he uses his four-pitch repertoire, and if he can maintain his velocity from beginning to end.

D.L. Hall, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
3 IP, 3.00 ERA, 12.00 K/9, 6.00 BB/9

Hall’s preparation for the season has taken him on a similar path to Rutschman. They probably could have shared transportation from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A. Hall’s stuff is truly electric. The southpaw can sit around 96-mph, and his fastball has natural carry. He complements it with two wipeout breaking balls and an effective changeup. Besides health, command is his primary shortcoming. However, he showed signs of turning a corner last season. Comparisons to Josh Hader abound. Remember, Hader had a chance to stick in the rotation before he proved too valuable as a reliever.

Injuries and poor command have prevented Hall from topping 100 innings in a season. The Orioles front office undoubtedly wants to take it slow while getting him ready for an expanded role in future seasons. He’s faced between 12 and 15 batters in his three starts, a sign he might be used as an opener or bulk reliever this season. That would also be an effective way to get him a full season of outings without a burdensome workload.

Bryson Stott, 24, SS, PHI (MLB)
(AAA) 40 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .333/.375/.611

Stott made the Phillies out of Spring Training then proceeded to flop. He hit just .133/.161/.167 in 31 plate appearances. Upon a demotion to Triple-A, his bat immediately awakened. He delivered multiple hits in five of nine games played. The sole red flag was a 25 percent strikeout rate which, while not egregious by leaguewide standards, is on the high side for him. Still, we’re talking a couple extra strikeouts in a small sample. An injury to Didi Gregorius necessitated Stott’s recall. The Phillies hope Gregorius can return sometime next week. In four games since returning, Stott has one hit, one walk, and seven strikeouts in 16 plate appearances.

Vidal Brujan, 24, UT, TB (MLB)
(AAA) 70 PA, 6 SB, .300/.400/.467

Brujan’s offensive template is speed-based. However, despite what many say, he’s not entirely powerless. Think of him as similar to Cardinals utility man Tommy Edman. Both have the capacity to sting the ball even if most of their contact is on the ground. Brujan raised his launch angle in Triple-A Durham last season, launching 12 home runs in 441 plate appearances. He also stole 44 bags. He could age into more power. For now, the focus is on maintaining a low strikeout rate and high BABIP. The Rays have lumped Brujan into their ever-mutating series of platoons. He should receive regular, if unpredictable, playing time.

Five More

Oneil Cruz (23): While his triple-slash of .190/.315/.324 remains an eyesore, Cruz has shown signs of life in his last six games (.304/.467/.565). As Chris Clegg of Fantrax notes, Cruz is capable of Stantonian exit velocities. The Pirates are using Diego Castillo and Rodolfo Castro at shortstop, both of whom are considered second basemen by most scouts.

Riley Greene (21): Greene was on pace to make the Tigers Opening Day roster before breaking his foot. He’s expected to resume baseball activities today. The Tigers could use an upgrade in center field. Greene is a patient slugger who comes with the usual high strikeout rate.

Josh Lowe (24): Lowe was demoted to Triple-A in early May. The results are mixed. His .207/.303/.552 batting line is above-average mostly thanks to three home runs in 33 plate appearances. He’s also too strikeout prone at the moment. His 18 punch outs equate to 54.5 percent of plate appearances.

Chase Silseth (22): Although lacking in “big hype,” Silseth has flown through the Angels system. He’ll start for the big-league club tonight, skipping Triple-A in the process. Overall, he’s tossed just 31.1 innings in the minors. The right-hander had a 1.73 ERA in 26 Double-A innings complimented by 12.81 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, and an 18.5 percent swinging strike rate.

Royce Lewis (23): Our lead story last week, Lewis has held his own through 21 plate appearances. Overall, he has six hits and four strikeouts, good for a .286/.286/.333 line. He does not appear to be overmatched. Carlos Correa returns soon.

Big Hype Prospects returns in time for a big Twins-themed update. Let’s eschew the ado.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Royce Lewis, 22, SS, MIN (AAA)
107 PA, 3 HR, 8 SB, .310/.430/.563

A former first overall prospect who flirted with the “bust” label for a few moments, Lewis chewed through Triple-A and should have a chance to stick for good if he performs. The proximate need is an injury to Carlos Correa which is expected to require a stint on the injured list. There’s still plenty of opportunity elsewhere in the infield if and when Correa returns. Neither Gio Urshela nor Jose Miranda (more on him in a moment) have staked strong claims to a job.

COVID and an ACL injury wiped out Lewis’ 2020 and 2021 seasons. However, this 2022 rebound was widely anticipated – he had shown considerable growth last spring prior to the knee injury. Lewis has an exciting combination of athleticism not seen in Minnesota since the arrival of Byron Buxton. While his three home runs in 107 plate appearances aren’t indicative of an elite power hitter, it’s worth noting he hit 11 doubles and a triple too. Overall, that’s 15 extra-base hits and 12 singles, a ratio which portends productivity if he stays healthy and continues making contact.

Keep an eye on his walk rate and plate discipline in the Majors. He’s long been an aggressive hitter, yet he managed a 15.9 percent walk rate this season. I don’t have any information on this apparent discipline breakout. Swing decisions are the cutting edge of hitter analytics right now so we’ll want to learn if his walks are a small sample fluke, the result of teams pitching around him, or a new aspect of his game.

Jose Miranda, 23, CI, MIN (MLB)
17 PA, .118/.118/.176

Prospect watchers had their eye on Miranda this spring. That’s because, last season, he hit 30 home runs with a .344 batting average in 591 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A. Scouts don’t love Miranda from a defensive perspective. Though he’s capable of manning second or third base, he’s better-suited to first base or designated hitter. He’s a free swinger with a knack for making contact and above average pop. Personally, I’m getting vague Maikel Franco flashbacks, albeit with less swing-and-miss. He ends fewer than 20 percent of plate appearances with a walk or strikeout, a rarity in today’s game. The FanGraphs prospect crew offer Ty France as a loose comp, though it’s important to remember the current iteration of France has exceeded the expectations of nearly every scout and evaluator.

Miguel Sano is expected to miss a significant amount of time so Miranda should have ample opportunity to build upon both this slow start, and a tepid .256/.295/.442 batting line he posted in 95 Triple-A plate appearances. His internal competition for starts are Urshela and outfielders like Alex Kirilloff (once healthy).

Josh Winder, 25, SP, MIN (MLB)
16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 6.61 K/9, 2.20 BB/9

Winder earned a spot in the Opening Day bullpen after crafting an epic Spring Training. While the actual recorded stats appeared ordinary, evaluators raved about the quality of his stuff. Winder has a four-pitch repertoire of 50-grade offerings – league average in scouting parlance. They play up due to above-average command. A variety of injuries in the rotation have gifted him with an opportunity to start. His debut start came on May 1 when he worked six innings against the Rays. He allowed just two hits and a walk while striking out seven batters. Winder has undeniable swing-and-miss stuff (12.2% SwStr%), but he’s yet to show consistency with inducing strikeouts.

MJ Melendez, 23, C, KC (MLB)
(AAA) 91 PA, 2 HR, 3 SB, .167/.286/.295

Between stomping upper minors pitching for 41 home runs in 531 plate appearances last season and an equally impressive Spring Training, Melendez would have made most Opening Day rosters. Instead, the positionally deep Royals sent him to Triple-A where he scuffled in part due to a .204 BABIP. A need for a backup catcher opened a brief opportunity for him earlier this week. In seven plate appearances, he’s shown how he terrorized minor league pitching last season via loud contact. Of his six batted ball events, four are “hard” with a 95.6-mph average exit velocity. For now, he’s mostly competing with Hunter Dozier for designated hitter reps.

Max Meyer, 23, SP, MIA (AAA)
26.1 IP, 1.71 ERA, 11.28 K/9, 2.05 BB/9

Elieser Hernandez has posted a devilish 6.66 ERA in five starts (24.1 IP). Meyer, meanwhile, is steamrolling Triple-A hitters. He’s rumored to be in consideration to take Hernandez’s next turn in the rotation. Meyer isn’t exactly a traditional scout’s dream – he’s small and mostly leans on a two-pitch repertoire. His fastball and slider are elite offerings that play well off each other. His changeup lags behind but is considered usable. His stuff is sufficiently electric to make up for below-average command. He doesn’t issue many free passes which he achieves by missing in the zone and trusting his stuff to carry the day. He could produce ace-like numbers. However, we should expect a short-burst role similar to early-career Lance McCullers.

Five More

Kyle Bradish (25): Bradish has made two starts since we discussed him last week. I noted we should “monitor his ability to generate called and swinging strikes.” Thus far, his 13.9 percent called and 9.3 percent swinging strike rates are slightly below league average. Incidentally, he’s managed 4.50 K/9 in 10 innings. We’ll keep watching.

Matt Brash (24): In early April, Brash sizzled in his debut start during which I wondered if big league hitters might stop bailing him out by swinging at his unhittable breaking ball. It was never in the zone. They proceeded to do just that. Brash was recently demoted to Triple-A where he’ll serve as a reliever. Many expect this to be a permanent role reassignment. He could be an elite stopper.

George Kirby (24): The Mariners have progressed slowly with Kirby’s development due to a history of injury issues. With Brash exiting the rotation, Kirby has an outside chance to double-jump to the Majors. One of the top pitching prospects in the game, he’s produced a 1.82 ERA with 11.68 K/9 and 1.82 BB/9 in 24.2 Double-A innings. A gradual ascent through Triple-A is likelier.

Adley Rutschman (24): Rutschman is basically on a rehab assignment. He’ll be in the Majors soon. Since our last update, he hit .526/.591/.737 in 22 plate appearances. He also posted three walks and only one strikeout.

Roansy Contreras (22): The Pirates are still carefully managing Contreras’ workload. While many of us hoped he was demoted to Triple-A to build his pitch count, he faced 15 batters on April 24 and only 13 batters on April 30. He’s due for another start. Look for more batters faced.

Welcome to Big Hype Prospects. Every Friday, we’ll use this space to look at a select few top prospects. Some will already be in the Majors. Others will be making their way towards a promotion. And, occasionally, we’ll catch a guy at just the right time for their debut. Speaking of which, we have one of those below.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Kyle Bradish, 25, SP, BAL (AAA)

15 IP, 1.20 ERA, 10.20 K/9, 1.80 BB/9

Bradish started tonight’s game against the Boston Red Sox. The right-hander, originally acquired in the Dylan Bundy trade, features a four-pitch repertoire headlined by a 95-mph fastball. Like many pitchers of this era, he works up in the zone with his heater. Multiple scouting reports mention he’s not good at locating the pitch lower in the zone. That’s fine – a high fastball pairs well with most breaking balls. Bradish throws two – a vertically-oriented curveball and a sweeping slider. Like many pitching prospects, his changeup rates as a definite fourth-best offering. Beyond his stuff, a key aspect of his success is a funky delivery (rear view and front view). Scouts note Bradish tends to work deep counts. We should expect relatively short starts on average.

Something to monitor is his ability to generate called and swinging strikes. While the top-level results from his three minor league starts were golden, the ways he succeeded varied. He didn’t draw many whiffs in the first two starts. His third appearance included plenty of misses, but he also allowed three runs. Bradish should be considered to have a wide range of plausible outcomes.

Oneil Cruz, 23, SS, PIT (AAA)

74 PA, 1 HR, 6 SB, /197/.284/.318

When Tim Dierkes suggested I write this column last weekend, he not-so-subtly used Cruz as an example. His brief 2021 debut included a ball hit 118.2-mph. Only six players produced a harder-hit baseball – Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Franchy Cordero, and Pete Alonso. Cruz needed just five batted balls to join them. His size and batted ball profile are reminiscent of Judge – if the Yankees slugger could play a passable shortstop and steal bases too!

The Pirates broke our hearts by optioning Cruz to Triple-A so he could work on his “outfield defense.” Notably, he has played only two games in left field. The rest of his starts have come at shortstop. Which makes sense – the Pirates don’t really have a notable shortstop, and Cruz is a perfectly acceptable defender.

While the defense excuse fell flat, it does appear Cruz can benefit from more seasoning. Aside from his six steals, he’s struggling offensively. His 31.1 percent strikeout rate is bloated when compared to a 12.1 percent swinging strike rate. Often, this indicates some type of passivity. I suspect he’s taking too many hittable early-count pitches. His batted ball data is also strange. I don’t have access to granular information on minor league batted balls, but we can see he’s hit 51.2 percent of his contact to the opposite field. Most of the rest is pull side with very few balls hit up the middle. Such extremes are virtually never observed in successful Major Leaguers. That’s not to say Cruz is doomed. If anything, his batted ball outcomes will probably regress toward normality. It’s also worth noting he’s a physical unicorn. Perhaps he’ll also statistically thrive in a truly unique way.

For now, Cruz is a hot streak away from a promotion. He’s shown a pulse over the last six days (.231/.286/.385).

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (A+)

7 PA, .167./.286/.333

Rutschman quietly began a rehab assignment earlier this week. The FanGraphs prospect crew gave him a rare 70-FV grade, essentially stating they believe he’s already one of the best players in the sport. He’s a switch-hitter with above average discipline and contact skills. He’s also lauded for his defensive chops behind the plate. If his game has weaknesses, it’s merely-good power and below average speed. Based on a batted ball profile oriented to fly ball contact, he should still push 20 or more home runs annually in a full season.

The Orioles have two potential paths to follow. It’s expected that, once promoted, Rutschman will be in the Majors for good. The club could try to hold off until sometime in July, thereby dodging Super Two status. A likelier outcome, based on comments made by GM Mike Elias, is a rapid climb from High- to Triple-A followed by a quick promotion to the Majors. Prior to injury, the Orioles signaled willingness to promote him on Opening Day. The present tandem of Robinson Chirinos and Anthony Bemboom has 10 hits in 71 plate appearances and lacks Rutschman’s defensive capacity.

Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (AAA)

88 PA, 4 HR, .225/.354/.437

The 8-12 Red Sox have a bit of a conundrum. Casas, their top prospect, is off to a respectable start at Triple-A. Meanwhile, Bobby Dalbec has struggled mightily in the Majors. Dalbec is a hot-and-cold hitter who slumped through the entire first half of 2021 before emerging as one of the top sluggers in the second half. His power-driven approach is volatile and could possibly benefit from a jump-start in Triple-A.

Casas features elite plate discipline. Scouts drool over his breaking ball recognition. Oddly, he’s running a 19.4 percent swinging strike rate this season, a sign his much-ballyhooed pitch-recognition isn’t in top form at the moment. Even so, Casas could be on the shortlist for promotion. His approach offers a higher floor than that of Dalbec, which could help the team to win more ballgames in the short term.

Corbin Carroll, 21, OF, ARI (AA)

79 PA, 4 HR, 5 SB, .344/.456/.641

In the Majors, we usually point to elevated BABIPs as a reason why a hitter will probably regress. For a minor leaguer, it just as often signals when they’re done with a level. Thus, Carroll’s .429 BABIP leads me to believe he’s ready for a promotion. Although he’s only the 19th-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline – one spot below teammate Alek Thomas – scouts I’ve spoken with believe he may be the number one prospect in baseball once Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Spencer Torkelson, and Rutschman are no longer qualified. The skill set is even more exciting for fantasy baseball enthusiasts. Carroll, a lefty, combines discipline and contact skills already believed to be above the Major League average with elite speed and gap power. He’s credited with a line-to-line approach, although he can also generate potent, pulled contact.

The present trajectory is of a high-average and OBP hitter with potential for 15-25 home runs and over 25 stolen bases. Barring injury or an unforeseen setback at Triple-A, we should see him later this season.

Five More

Alek Thomas (22): While Carroll may be the spicier prospect, Thomas is already on the cusp of promotion to the Majors. He’s hitting .263/.329/.500 in 85 Triple-A plate appearances.

Nolan Gorman (22): Is anyone hotter than Gorman? He’s already bashed 10 home runs in 77 plate appearances. A 32.5 percent strikeout rate partly backed by a 14.2 percent swinging strike rate is the only blemish to his .343/.390/.800 triple-slash. A suspension of Nolan Arenado could be an excuse for a brief trial run.

Grayson Rodriguez (22): The top pitching prospect in the minors has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. Baltimore is carefully managing his workload. He’s yet to face 20 batters in a game. He has a 2.45 ERA with 13.75 K/9 and 1.47 BB/9.

Bobby Witt Jr. (21): Even Mike Trout wasn’t great in his debut. Witt Jr. has shown a pulse over his last seven games, hitting .310/.333/.379 with three steals in four attempts. The power will play sooner or later.

C.J. Abrams (21): Abrams skipped Triple-A and it shows. Once Luke Voit and/or Wil Myers are healthy, Abrams could be sent to the farm to get back on track.