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Big Hype Prospects

Big Hype Prospects: Baty, Miller, Dominguez, Cowser, Wiemer

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll look at more prospects who could find themselves on the move in the next few days. Check out last week’s Juan Soto Edition of Big Hype Prospects for more deadline trade candidates.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (AA)
350 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .303/.394/.507

The Mets are reportedly trying very hard to hang onto Francisco Alvarez and Baty. To accomplish all of their deadline trade goals, they might not be able to cling to both. Alvarez being the scarcer and flashier talent, I figure he’s less likely to be traded outside of a Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani deal. Baty, however, would fit in a swap for any of the next tier of trade targets. Names like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or Sean Murphy.

Baty is having a fine season after a bit of a slow start. His performance suggests a readiness for the next challenge. When I see a prospect of this caliber promoted slowly, it leads me to wonder if he’s been held down to ensure his trade value doesn’t take a hit from an untimely slump. Baty makes a ton of hard, low-angle contact. Despite a 26 percent strikeout rate, he regularly hits for a high batting average. He makes the most of his rare air-ball contact thanks to an over 20 percent HR/FB ratio. His batted ball profile reminds me of a slightly better Ryan McMahon.

Bobby Miller, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
76.1 IP, 11.20 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.36 ERA

Miller receives plenty of attention for his triple-digit velocity heater, but his results don’t always match the raw stuff. This season, his ERA is a full point higher than his FIP. In the past, we would have shrugged and assumed better days awaited. Unfortunately, it seems his fastball shape and middling command are the culprits. Both issues, should they remain, will only intensify once he reaches the Majors. They could prevent him from realizing his full potential. While some kind of rotation role is likely with a floor as an elite reliever, now could represent a good time for the Dodgers to sell Miller. Some clubs might believe they can fix him.

If the worst outcomes are reminiscent of Sixto Sanchez or Hunter Greene, that’s not a bad thing. Sanchez, you might recall, was dealt for multiple seasons of J.T. Realmuto (the Phillies also included Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart, and an international bonus slot in the deal). Miller might not be quite as beloved as Sanchez was at the time. His plus command helped assuage doubts about a modest strikeout rate. Still, that implies the Dodgers can expect to add a substantial player if they part with Miller.

Jasson Dominguez, 19, OF, NYY (A+)
(A) 423 PA, 9 HR, 19 SB, .265/.373/.440
(A+) 27 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .292/.370/.500

Dominguez is best-known for having the physique of a mid-20s body builder as a 17-year-old. Now 19, the developmentally mature teenager recently earned a promotion to High-A where he’s one of the youngest players on hand (recently promoted Jackson Chourio is the youngest player at the level). Reports heading into this season were mixed with some notes emphasizing his physicality as potentially detrimental. He’s put those concerns to rest while display above average plate discipline with plenty of blistering contact. Presently, he makes a lot of hard, low-angle, pulled contact. He has time to make adjustments to unlock either a more balanced or more power-centric approach.

Dominguez comes with substantial bust risk so any acquiring team should make sure they feel confident about their development staff.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AA)
(A+) 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
(AA) 98 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .324/.480/.689

Cowser is a personal favorite of mine. He has fantastic discipline, a better-than-average swinging strike rate, and a batted ball profile maxed out for high BABIPs. In short, he is the ideal leadoff hitter. His game is a little bit like Alek Thomas – if the DBacks outfielder took a lot more pitches. While an adjustment isn’t strictly necessary, Cowser could probably stand to swing more often. Adding in a little bit loft wouldn’t hurt either. There are a lot of directions this profile can go, and most of them yield some type of really useful ballplayer. To reach a superstar ceiling, he’ll have to take bold risks regarding his approach and mechanics.

Depending on who you talk to, Cowser is the Orioles third- or fourth-best prospect. With their surprise contention, the front office is undoubtedly kicking around ideas. From the perspective of continued employment, it’s safer for Mike Elias to stay the course. If they do spend prospects on reinforcements, they’ll likely either be from the bargain bin or club-controlled for a long period. In the latter scenario, some of their better names like Cowser, Coby Mayo, and Jordan Westburg will need to be in play.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, MIL (AA)
364 PA, 15 HR, 24 SB, .243/.321/.446

Wiemer has the look and the size of the notable prospect. At times, he puts up video game numbers as he did in High-A last season. Opinions are divided. Some scouts I spoke with last fall weren’t enamored with his playing style, believing he’d fade into a role player as he advanced through the system. Unaffiliated scouts who are plugged more into the fantasy baseball scene love his combination of power and aggression on the basepaths.

As reported earlier today, the Brewers are looking for mid-tier upgrades like Ramon Laureano. While the club would undoubtedly prefer to hold onto one of their few top prospects, they have one of the weaker farm systems behind Chourio. Their list of attractive trade assets might not extend much beyond Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Ethan Small.

Five More

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): In his latest outing – his first appearance since July 8 – Harrison fanned nine of 10 batters faced. It was a masterful performance. The soon-to-be 21-year-old is ready for the next challenge.

Oswald Peraza, NYY (22): With the Yankees eyeballing a late-October run, one of their young shortstops is probably going to wind up joining another club. While Peraza isn’t as impressive as Anthony Volpe, he still profiles as a future above average shortstop. He’s hit 13 home runs with 24 steals and a .258/.329/.446 triple-slash in 319 Triple-A plate appearances.

Royce Lewis, MIN (23): Lewis showed signs of a breakout in the spring of 2021 before missing the entire season. Then, after showing well in Triple-A and a 41 plate appearance stint in the Majors, he again suffered a season-ending injury. The Twins undoubtedly don’t want to sell Lewis. They stuck it out with Byron Buxton so it’s not as if they’re averse to players with the “injury prone” label. If they’re thirsty enough, he’s a highly valuable prospect who happens to be incapable of helping them contend this season.

Michael Busch, LAD (24): A Busch trade is beginning to feel inevitable. The oldest player featured today, Busch is having a decent but unspectacular campaign at Triple-A. He’s on a tear this month, batting .310/.384/.529 in July (125 wRC+). Since he looks like someone who might need awhile to adjust in the Majors, the Dodgers might prefer to skip that portion of his development by cashing out.

Ricky Tiedemann, TOR, (19): A youthful southpaw who has chewed through the competition, Tiedemann might just be the Blue Jays most sellable prospect. He has a bright and promising future after already succeeding in High-A as a teenager. However, TINSTAAPP applies, and the Jays current contention window may well be closed by the time Tiedemann is big league ready.

Big Hype Prospects: Juan Soto Edition

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a peek at some players who could find themselves shipped to the Nationals in the next 12 days. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, seven teams are currently in the mix for Juan Soto, although a surprise or three are liable to check in on this once-in-a-decade opportunity.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Diego Cartaya, 20, C, LAD (A+)
(A): 163 PA, 9 HR, .260/.405/.550
(A+): 137 PA, 5 HR, .288/.423/.514

Seemingly everybody who goes to watch Cartaya comes away impressed by the precocious catcher. If there’s a flaw in his game, it’s that he’s already embraced an extreme approach as a hitter. His combination of 50 percent fly balls, 50 percent pulled contact, and near-30 percent strikeout rate mark him as a classic slugger. He’s on a 30-homer pace this season – a rarity both for players this young and for catching prospects. He even draws praise as a defender, especially for his arm.

Prior to the lost COVID year, Cartaya had a reputation for aggression. Since then, he’s averaged a 13 percent walk rate in 437 plate appearances. Unfortunately, the more discerning approach is also why his strikeout rate has spiked. There’s wiggle room for more adjustments related to his swing decisions.

The Nationals already have one former Dodger catching prospect in their lineup (Keibert Ruiz). Even so, Cartaya almost certainly would be included in a Soto trade. As a centerpiece, he might have less heft than others we discuss today. We’ve known for over a decade that a pitching prospect is considerably less valuable than an equally skilled positional prospect. That mostly comes down to attrition associated with pitching. Catchers lurk between pitchers and the other positions – various flavors of attrition can play spoiler to an otherwise great prospect.

Additional notable Dodgers prospects include Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Bobby Miller, and Ryan Pepiot.

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)
(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553
(AAA) 34 PA, .087/.324/.130

If Cartaya is precocious, then I’m not sure we have a word for Alvarez. He’s two months younger than Cartaya and outperformed the Dodger prospect while playing in Double-A. Although it hasn’t gone swimmingly (yet), signs point to improvement ahead. For one, his .125 BABIP and .043 ISO will normalize. Alvarez is arguably the top prospect in the minors.

While the Steve Cohen Mets have shown no qualms with expending resources, their farm system is thin. Moreover, acquiring Soto would ensure they surpass the fourth luxury tax tier. The 80 percent tax rate associated with payrolls over $290MM has already been dubbed the “Cohen Tax.” Many observers believe Patrick Corbin will need to be absorbed as well. Whether or not the Mets are willing to take on these extra expenditures, it’s unclear the Nationals would risk losing another elite outfielder to a division rival.

The Mets next-best prospects are Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Alex Ramirez. Mark Vientos could have modest appeal for his proximity to the Majors.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, (AA)
348 PA, 12 HR, 35 SB, .253/.351/.461

Volpe had a chilly start to his 2022 campaign. Since mid-May, he’s batting .303/.386/.541 with 9.0 percent walk and 14.8 percent strikeout rates. He’s been ready for promotion for weeks if not longer. That he remains in Double-A could reflect the Yankees willingness to trade him at the deadline. As the top true shortstop prospect, he’d go a long way towards landing Soto.

The Yankees know the appeal of generational talents to their fan base, but they also know the value of a good, homegrown shortstop. Volpe has all the makings of a future All-Star. The presence of Oswald Peraza – also a well-regarded shortstop prospect – means the Yankees can probably hang onto a middle infielder for their 2023 campaign. They can attempt to tempt the Nationals with the likes of Jasson Dominguez, Alexander Vargas, and a brace of Major League-adjacent pitchers like Clarke Schmidt, Luis Medina, Deivi Garcia, and Luis Gil among others.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
329 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .304/.392/.486

Like Volpe, Walker has seemingly overstayed his welcome in Double-A and could be hanging out for trade reasons. The Cardinals have sufficient infield depth to consider Walker expendable. As we discussed in this column last week, his prodigious power is somewhat wasted on a grounder-oriented batted ball profile. That same approach has helped him to hit for a high average despite plenty of swing-and-miss.

St. Louis is stocked with a deep system of future contributors even if scouting reports aren’t always enthusiastic. Juan Yepez would match the Nationals desire for a Major League return, and he’s a somewhat awkward fit on the current Cardinals roster. Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and Masyn Winn are just a few of the others who might appeal to Washington. They’ll need to offer a lot of quantity to secure a Soto trade.

Marco Luciano, 20, SS/3B, SFG (A+)
164 PA, 8 HR, .288/.360/.507

Luciano is currently sidelined with a back injury. Prior to landing on the shelf in early-June, he’d shown considerable improvement in his second exposure to High-A. Not only was he hitting for power again, he also rediscovered his previously adequate plate discipline. Luciano is expected to slide down the defensive spectrum, but there’s still a chance he might stick as a bat-first shortstop.

The Giants system features a few tantalizing talents, but they’re mostly in the low minors. In addition to Luciano and Luis Matos (see below), San Francisco could entice with Kyle Harrison, Patrick Bailey, or Heliot Ramos. Unlike some other suitors, they’d need to spend most of their best prospect capital to consummate a deal.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21) and Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (22): The Orioles might not be everyone’s favorites to land Soto, but their combination of top farm system, nonexistent future commitments, and pivot back to relevancemake them the perfect match – if they’re mentally prepared to make a bold move. Henderson and Rodriguez are now widely-regarded as Top 5 prospects. Baltimore has another dozen prospects who look like future big-league contributors. Henderson has run into some strikeout issues upon promotion to Triple-A. Rodriguez is currently recovering from a lat injury. He was on the cusp of making his Major League debut when he suffered the injury.

Luis Matos, SFG (20): Matos has struggled in High-A this season. His scouting grades point to a bright future. However, unlike many top prospects in this era, his prospect ranking is built upon projection on his frame and tools rather than on-field results. The Nationals have the wherewithal to be picky when dealing Soto. Matos’ inclusion will depend on what their scouts say.

Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): With Julio Rodriguez untouchable – even in a Soto trade – Marte is the Mariners next-best bullet. Since late-June, he’s batting an incredible .390/.478/.729 with as many walks as strikeouts. Seattle can prime the pump with Jarred Kelenic, George Kirby, Matt Brash, Harry Ford, and/or Emerson Hancock.

Robert Hassell, SDP (20): The biggest barrier for the Padres is their long-term finances. They certainly have the prospects to get a deal done including a number of MLB-ready players. Hassell looks like a plausible centerpiece, a player who could join the Majors in late-2023. He’s currently thriving in High-A. If the Padres prefer not to part with C.J. Abrams, Luis Campusano, or MacKenzie Gore – all of whom have big league experience and are well-regarded – then they could offer toolsy youngsters like James Wood and Jackson Merrill. Eguy Rosario and Esteury Ruiz should be appealing too.

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

Big Hype Prospects: Jones, Leiter, Alvarez, Chourio, De La Cruz

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll mostly focus our attention upon invitees to the Futures Game.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Jones, 24, OF, CLE (AAA)

108 PA, 3 HR, 4 SB, .311/.417/.500

Once on pace to debut during the 2020 season as a 22-year-old, several factors considerably slowed Jones’s ascent. First, he came back rusty from the lost 2020 minor league season, performing particularly poorly in May. He improved as the season progressed and could have arrived in Cleveland last September if not for a season-ending ankle injury in late-August. He also opened the 2022 season on the injured list while recovering from surgery for the same injury. The Guardians finally appear poised to promote him after a month in Triple-A.

Jones is best known for his plate discipline. Expect him to show the same discerning eye as Max Muncy. Jones has a little more swing-and-miss to his game which could manifest in a 30 percent strikeout rate. Whereas Muncy’s swing has plenty of loft, Jones skews heavily towards ground ball contact. He has the raw power to be a 30-homer threat, but his combination of grounders and infrequent contact leave him projected for only 20 home runs per 600 plate appearances. Although he’s always posted exceptional BABIPs in the minors, he can get pull happy. That could open him up to BABIP-killing shifts. Since his game revolves around walks and balls in play, anything that negatively affects his BABIP could also affect how he’s used.

Jack Leiter, 22, SP, TEX (AA)

48.2 IP, 11.10 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 5.36 ERA

Leiter was aggressively assigned to Double-A to start the season, and it hasn’t been an easy transition. Optimists can readily spot encouraging signs. He’s held batters to just 44 hits while recording 60 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he’s also issued 28 walks and hit five batters. Command isn’t expected to be a long-term issue for Leiter, but it is one he’s presently battling. He’s issued 16 walks over his last 19.2 innings.

Fortunately, the recent second-overall pick retains all of his glamorous tools. He features three plus offerings – a rising fastball, curve, and slider. He also has an underdeveloped changeup. He’ll represent the Rangers in the Futures Game.

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)

(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553

With Adley Rutschman graduated, Alvarez is now the consensus top catching prospect in the minors. He was recently promoted to Triple-A where he’s 1-for-10 in 13 plate appearances. He’s the Mets Futures Game representative.

Alvarez is an advanced hitter. Already one of the youngest players at Triple-A, he features plus plate discipline and huge raw power. At times, he sells out for pull-side contact. His minor league batted ball data include low line drive rates which could manifest as a low BABIP in the Majors. That said, he’s on pace to debut early next season as a 21-year-old catcher, a developmental path which tends to lead to storied careers. His bat will need to carry what could be a below average defensive profile. While he’s not bad enough to move off the position, the Mets might opt to use him as a part-time designated hitter to keep his bat in the lineup while allowing certain pitchers to work with a better defender.

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A)

236 PA, 11 HR, 9 SB, .318/.369/.594

Chourio might be the next 20-year-old uber-prospect to debut in the Majors. He will be the youngest participant in the Futures Game. Only 18, he’s already performing impressive feats of strength including three home runs in July. Presently, there’s some swing-and-miss and overaggression to his approach, but not to the extent that either is a problem. We’ll see how these secondary traits develop as he climbs the ladder.

Since earlier this season, I’ve yet to hear or read any description of Chourio that wasn’t effusive in its praise. He’s the hip teenage breakout of the year. MLB Prospect Pipeline actually has him ranked ahead of 2021’s big teenage breakout, Elly De La Cruz. At least one other midseason update will also rank Chourio ahead of De La Cruz.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, CIN (A+)

268 PA, 18 HR, 26 SB, .302/.357/.597

Speaking of De La Cruz, fantasy baseball enthusiasts are undoubtedly drooling over his combination of power and speed. The switch-hitter produces some of the top exit velocities in the minors. He’s built like Oneil Cruz, albeit two inches shorter. The obvious flaws in his game relate to discipline and whiff rate. He could have exploitable flaws as he ascends the minor league ladder. However, we’ve seen other players with this rare athletic-profile improve their strikeout rate enough to become a superstar. Since June 28, a span of 34 plate appearances, De La Cruz has five home runs and a .387/.441/.903 slash. He might not return to High-A after the Futures Game.

Five More

Yosver Zulueta, TOR (24): Zulueta will appear in the Futures Game after already churning through three levels of the minors. His development has been slowed first by Tommy John surgery and then by a torn ACL. He needs to be placed on the 40-man roster after this season (or exposed to the Rule 5 draft) despite having faced only one batter prior to this year. A former big bonus international free agent, Zulueta could move fast as a high leverage reliever, but he might also have the stuff to start with a Spencer Strider-like two-pitch approach.

DL Hall, BAL (23): Since the last BHP, Hall has pitched twice. He’s totaled 10 innings of one-run ball including just four hits allowed and three walks. He struck out 22 of 38 batters faced. Hall is more than halfway to a career-high in innings. He might be seen as ready to get his feet wet in the Majors as a short-burst starter. Notably, his 5.77 BB/9 in Triple-A could be a barrier to starting long-term. Of qualified pitchers, Dylan Cease ranks last with 4.21 BB/9. Pitchers with higher walk rates don’t pile up innings. Hall will not be attending the Futures Game.

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson is the Orioles Futures Game representative. He’s also jumped into the Top five on the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline. He’s actually in his first funk of the season, batting just .133/.188/.167 with 15 strikeouts over his last seven games (32 PA).

Logan O’Hoppe, PHI (22): The Phillies have left O’Hoppe in Double-A where he’s batting .270/.383/.521 with 14 home runs and five steals in 256 plate appearances. His offensive numbers could be inflated both by Reading and a weak Double-A pitching environment. Either way, he profiles as a future big league regular. If the Phillies remain in contention in the upcoming weeks, he’s their one big, expendable trade chip. He might stay in Double-A through the deadline.

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): Like many pitching prospects, Harrison’s workload was carefully managed early in the season at High-A. Upon promotion to Double-A, he’s been making normal starts typically in the range of 20 to 24 batters faced. He’s on track to make his Major League debut in 2023. His mechanics offer an uncomfortable look. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a front angle. He has a floor as a high-leverage reliever, but he’s likelier to be used as a mid-rotation pitcher.

Big Hype Prospects: Rutschman, Carroll, Yorke, Peraza, Tovar

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This week, we touch on a couple impending prospect graduates and look ahead for potential future promotions.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (MLB)

129 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .220/.287/.407

Rutschman’s prospect eligibility will officially expire with his next plate appearance. In a recent fantasy chat, I received a question about his disappointing performance to date. Contrary to that framing, I’ve found his play to be highly encouraging even if he hasn’t immediately incinerated all competition. His current triple-slash is good for a 96 wRC+. That’s only four percent worse than the average Major Leaguer. This season, there are only 18 catchers with a better wRC+ and at least 100 plate appearances. Rutschman is sandwiched between Sean Murphy and Daulton Varsho. He’s ahead of a slumping J.T. Realmuto. This is not a bad way to debut.

Moreover, he’s performed well in every facet of the game. Even his baserunning has contributed positively. His strikeout rate is better than league average. He swings at considerably fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter. He swings more often in-zone. His exit velocities are above average. His launch angle is a tad steep at present, a symptom of a couple extra infield flies. He hasn’t had issues with those in the past and will probably adjust. His current .253 BABIP has room to expand northwards, and his strikeouts could decline below his already-good rate.

Rutschman never projected as a Trout-ian hitter so it’s unfair to have expected more from his first 129 plate appearances. His value to the Orioles comes from a well-rounded skill set that lacks for notable weaknesses at a famously light-hitting position.

Corbin Carroll, 21, SS, SDP (AA)

277 PA, 16 HR, 20 SB, .313/.430/.643

Few players are more overdue for a promotion than Carroll. Diamondbacks personnel are on the record as stating he won’t skip Triple-A like Braves prospect Michael Harris. That makes sense. The Braves called upon Harris to support their title defense. The Diamondbacks are fading fast in their Wild Card chase. Barring a couple miracle weeks, they’re on their way to selling at the trade deadline. There’s no urgency to bring Carroll to Chase Field this season.

Carroll is currently on the injured list with an undisclosed injury. He finished June with a .366/.452/.704 slash in 84 plate appearances. For those hoping to see Carroll in the Majors this season, multiple regulars might need to be cleared out of the way. Arizona has excellent outfield depth in the upper minors. They’ve been frantically assessing the likes of Jake McCarthy, Cooper Hummel, and Pavin Smith to determine which will support the future outfield of Carroll, Varsho, and Alek Thomas and which should be expended.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, (A+)

198 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .235/.308/.346

Some observers mocked the Red Sox when they selected Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. He proceeded to have a truly excellent 2021 campaign split between Low- and High-A. He returned to High-A this spring for what many hoped would be a brief stint. Instead, he appears to have stalled.

Part of the issue is health-based. A case of turf-toe held him out for most of a month. He returned on June 21 and has looked rusty since – .179/.258/.286 with a 38.7 percent strikeout rate in 31 plate appearances. Scouting reports tend to be complementary of Yorke’s gamesmanship, believing he’ll play well beyond what can only be described as ordinary scouting tools.

Based solely on his performance data, my theory is he attempted to sell out for more power this season. His pulled contact rate increased sharply as did his swinging strike rates. It could also be a simple matter of better pitching in the low minors this season. Pitching inventories were completely exhausted last year due to many clubs carefully managing their best arms on the heels of the lost COVID season. Regardless of explanation, Yorke’s reputation as a grinder with a good baseball IQ suggests he should overcome this temporary setback. He’s still on pace to be one of the youngest players in Double-A later this season.

Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (AAA)

249 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .240/.309/.404

There’s a certain tyranny to developmental expectations these days. Peraza razed High-A in 2021 then performed well-enough in Double-A to earn a brief call-up to Triple-A. The Yankees returned him to Triple-A at the start of this season, but it might have been more appropriate to continue his development in Double-A. His plate approach could use refinement. He appears to have the raw tools and judgment to be disciplined but instead errs on the side of aggression. His swing is balanced and covers the zone well, especially low-to-high. I perceive some potential for big league pitchers to successfully nibble the outer edge against him, but that’s just me editorializing. I haven’t seen that mentioned in any scouting reports.

Peraza has a high-floor approach as a defensively capable shortstop with sufficient contact skills to keep his head above water. He’s also on the 40-man roster and might be the only plausible option to fill in if Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever need an extended absence.

Ezequiel Tovar, 20, SS, COL (AA)

295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Entering this season, scouting reports focused on Tovar’s defensive prowess while downplaying his potential to hit for power. FanGraphs went so far as to comp him to a “right-handed Nicky Lopez.” The minor league stats aren’t really matching those paltry expectations.

Last season, Tovar delivered 11 home runs in 326 Low-A plate appearances. It’s uncommon for 19-year-olds to deliver a home run every 30 plate appearances – even the ones we think will one day hit for power. As you can see, he’s performing similarly in Double-A this season as one of the youngest players in the league. He currently leads the Eastern League in batting average and ranks fourth in wOBA (Gunnar Henderson still qualifies for the lead).

The main critique of Tovar is his willingness to expand the strike zone. This leads to a low walk rate, too many swinging strikes, and, as he advances, risk of weak contact on balls outside the zone. The other side of the coin is this – he expands the zone because he’s talented enough to do so. The right adjustments could unlock an incredible outcome – and another elite shortstop for the Rockies franchise.

Five More

Triston Casas, BOS (22): An ankle injury has kept Casas out of action since mid-May. He might have missed a chance to squeeze onto the big league roster. Presently, Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero are performing decently as a first base platoon, but there was a window when Dalbec looked to have fallen out of favor. Casas has resumed fielding work and hitting off a tee. He should progress to game scenarios soon.

DL Hall, BAL (23): The good news for Hall is he’s pitching deeper into his outings. He’s averaged 21 batters faced over his last four starts which is right on par with the workload handled by short-burst starters in the Majors. The bad news is, in those four starts, he’s allowed 16 runs (11 earned) over just 16.2 innings. The two most recent outings – both against the Phillies affiliate – are to blame. He issued 10 walks against only five strikeouts in those appearances. Walks (6.57 BB/9) have been a season-long issue.

Michael Harris, ATL (21): Like Rutschman, this could be Harris’ last episode of BHP as a prospect-eligible player. He’s already at 118 plate appearances and should surpass the 130-plate appearance rookie-threshold by the end of the weekend. His early success (139 wRC+) comes with a few red flags. He’s needed a .402 BABIP and a hyperaggressive approach to overcome an elevated 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. Projection systems believe he’ll regress to slightly below league average as a hitter.

Ivan Herrera, STL (22): The heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera has seen semi-regular action in the Majors while Molina is on the mend from a knee injury. His first taste of the Majors hasn’t gone well yet. He has just two hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. However, he hit well in Triple-A (.291/.388/.436) and figures to settle in as a plus-defender with a knack for barreled, low-angle contact.

Josh Smith, TEX (24): A key component of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith recently returned from the injured list and has held his own in the Majors. He’s batting an OBP-centric .258/.439/.290. He has a similar hit tool and plate discipline to Rays utility man Taylor Walls with a little more built-in power. He gives every indication of becoming at least a league average hitter who can man most positions.



Big Hype Prospects: Cruz, Abrams, Volpe, Veen, Wiemer

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This week, we investigate a mix of prospects at a wide range of levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Oneil Cruz, 23, SS, Pirates (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 247 PA, 9 HR, 11 SB, .232/.336/.422

When Tim Dierkes suggested I run this column, Cruz was his first example of the type of player he wanted to see covered. I’d previously written a fantasy column about “Peripheral Prospects” in this same format covering lesser-known guys like Ken Waldichuk and Brett Kerry. It’s only fitting to touch upon Cruz one more time. While his Triple-A numbers don’t jump off the page, he eventually settled in to the level. Since early-May, he’s batted .280/.374/.520 with an 11.4 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. Reportedly, he was disappointed by his initial demotion, and it contributed to his April-long slump.

Since rejoining the Majors, Cruz is 4-for-18 with a stolen base. In four games, he’s already hit four balls over 100-mph, including two lasers over 110-mph. This is consistent with his track record. Cruz is built like a young Aaron Judge, and he hits the ball nearly as hard. His typical angle of contact is geared towards ground ball and line drive contact which could limit his home run production. When he does lift the ball, you can expect to see it soar. Anytime he’s in the lineup, Cruz is one of the most fascinating players in the league.

C.J. Abrams, 21, SS, Padres (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 151 PA, 7 HR, 10 SB, .314/.364/.507

Like Cruz, Abrams had a previous brief taste of the Majors and recently returned for four games. He’s 2-for-15 with one strikeout. Unlike Cruz, his exit velocities have been outright poor – just 81.8-mph. Abrams’ selection to the Padres roster followed on the heels of a particularly torrid multi-week stretch. He hit .398/.442/.519 over his last 95 Triple-A plate appearances. Included in the fun were four home runs, a 5.3 percent walk rate, and an 11.6 percent strikeout rate.

Such production indicated immediate readiness, especially for a prospect of Abrams’ caliber who scouts adore. If there’s a shortcoming in his profile, it’s that he doesn’t walk. It’s not necessarily an issue of discipline. He expands the zone in part because his speed has allowed him to still reach base in the minors. It’s possible he’ll learn to lay off marginal pitches in the Majors to improve his outcomes. If he does, he’ll flower into a high-quality leadoff hitter. There are still questions about his eventual defensive home – and not only because he has to share a field with Fernando Tatis Jr.

The worst-case scenario for Abrams is as an over-aggressive, contact-oriented slasher who plays all over the field. Between injuries and his incredible talent, we haven’t seen Abrams make many adjustments as a professional.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, Yankees (AA)
270 PA, 9 HR, 25 SB, .233/.326/.427

Over the offseason, I was virtually cornered by several Yankees fans who not-so-calmly explained that Volpe was the best prospect since Mike Trout. To the glee of everybody who loves to hate the Yankees, he performed particularly poorly until mid-May. Through May 17, he slashed a meager .170/.297/.330. Optimists cited four reasons he would rebound. First, the talent remained evident. He was working counts (13.8 percent walk rate). His .195 BABIP indicated poor luck. Lastly, he wasn’t the first prospect to wilt in chilly early-season weather.

As the calendar has heated up, so too has Volpe. He’s slashing .292/.356/.517 since May 18, a span of 132 plate appearances. He’s also putting more balls in play (6.8 percent walk rate, 15.9 percent strikeout rate) with a normal .319 BABIP. Volpe is on the shortlist for top prospect remaining in the minors. He’s also making a strong case for promotion to Triple-A – possibly by the end of this month.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, Rockies (A+)
258 PA, 8 HR, 25 SB, .259/.368/.440

The Rockies don’t exactly have an illustrious reputation with prospects. It’s nice to see Veen continue to perform to his draft pedigree. Scouting reports uniformly express concern about his hit tool playing against elite competition. While he possesses considerable raw power, his swing has qualities that some might describe as grooved. Such hitters can still succeed in the Majors. Billy Wagner once ridiculed Pat Burrell’s one-path swing (after allowing a home run). Joc Pederson might be a more relevant groovy comparison as a left-handed hitter with a pretty, loopy swing.

In any event, Veen is on track to spend some time in Double-A this season and debut either late in 2023 or early 2024. He works counts (14.3 percent walk rate) though he is also whiff prone (23.6 percent strikeout rate, 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate). While he’s 25-for-26 on the basepaths this season, it’s not clear if Veen will continue to run as he moves up the organizational ladder.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, Brewers (AA)
267 PA, 15 HR, 20 SB, .272/.348/.531

A divisive prospect, Wiemer is gaining steam as one of those guys who might succeed – perhaps even thrive – despite glaring flaws. He changed his mechanics heading into 2021 and unlocked massive in-game power. He launched 27 home runs in 472 plate appearances last season before tearing through the Arizona Fall League – one home run and a .467/.568/.667 triple-slash in 30 plate appearances.

There’s question if the hit tool will play in the Majors, but the power is evident enough to easily support a low-average approach. A worst-case scenario might look something like Adolis Garcia with plate discipline. Or Adam Duvall with discipline and an eagerness to run. He sells out for pull-side, fly-ball contact. He’s posted high BABIPs at every level, but this is a hitting profile that usually yields low BABIPs due to a cacophony of pulled grounders and easy fly outs. We should see him tested in Triple-A before long. Milwaukee might even need his help in the Majors late in the season if they don’t add outfield depth at the trade deadline.

Having watched him play several games, the energy he gives off evokes Bryce Harper.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (21): Last week’s lead BHP (that’s Big Hype Prospect), I noted Henderson would soon jump from around the 50th prospect to somewhere in the Top 10 as listmakers prepare their midseason updates. Since then, Baseball Prospectus’ Jarrett Seidler indicated Henderson might be the top prospect left in the minors. A highly-placed source at another major industry outlet confirmed Henderson is on a shortlist of about five players for their top prospect. As I understand it, this excludes all prospect-eligible players currently in the Majors like Michael Harris, Oneil Cruz, and C.J. Abrams.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): Currently shredding Double-A hitters, Perez is perhaps the most-precocious pitching prospect since Julio Urias. While Urias’ development was eventually delayed by injuries, Perez remains both healthy and effective. Most of what I would say about Perez was gleaned from the Marlins system update posted to FanGraphs earlier today. So, I’ll let you read what Eric Longenhagen has to say directly.

Jeter Downs, Red Sox (23): Downs made his debut recently, struck out three times in four plate appearances, and was promptly optioned back to Triple-A. Once a fairly well-regarded prospect, he’s fallen off the map since joining the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade. He still possesses tantalizing power and speed along with decent plate discipline. Unfortunately, there’s a ton of swing-and-miss in the profile; the kind that’s readily exploitable by seasoned pitchers. The best-case scenario these days is a sort of Dylan Moore-like outcome.

Brett Baty, Mets (22): Baty was, for me, the most visibly impressive prospect in the Arizona Fall League. Like Volpe, he had a chilly start to his Double-A campaign – his second visit to the level. He currently has a 14-game hitting over which he’s tamed his strikeout rate and pulled his season-long batting line up to an above-average .282/.372/.450 performance. Like the most of the other Double-A bats we’ve profiled today, he’s seemingly on the cusp of a promotion.

Noelvi Marte, Mariners (20): Two weeks ago, I noted some in the scouting biz had indicated Marte’s early-career dominance might be linked to physical traits that won’t necessarily scale as he advances to higher levels. In plain English, the boy got big young. Last week, I issued something of a retraction because I’d misplaced my source. Since then, I rediscovered the initial note, and it comes from a highly reputable source with access to dozens of scouts. All of this is to say that Marte doesn’t seem to be the second-coming if you buy into this early-development narrative. Not everybody does! This has been the most contentious take to appear in BHP. I look forward to fomenting more discussion about Marte. For what it’s worth, his June-long slump has continued. He hit .214/.241/.250 over the last week and is at .191/.257/.324 for the month.

Big Hype Prospects: Henderson, Harris, De La Cruz, Brash, Valera

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This week, we (mostly) delve deeper into the minors to examine some fast-rising future stars.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Gunnar Henderson, 20, 3B/SS, BAL (AAA)

(AA) 208 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .312/.452/.573

Few prospects have done more to improve their stock than Henderson. Coming off a passable but unspectacular 2021 season, Henderson has torched minor league pitching. Since earning a promotion to Triple-A, he’s continued to punish opposing pitchers to the tune of .286/.500/.536 with two home runs in 40 plate appearances. He also has 12 walks against just five strikeouts. In Double-A, he posted 19.7 percent walk and 18.3 percent strikeout rates.

His outlandish performance to date is backed by scouting observations. I spoke with Orioles Director of Player Development Matt Blood prior to the season, and he specifically highlighted Henderson as someone who has turned the corner mentally. Last year, Henderson had some of the markers of passivity – namely a high walk rate, high strikeout rate, and a modest swinging strike rate. This season, he’s reportedly improved upon his selectivity, punishing pitches in the zone while continuing to spit on those outside the zone.

Henderson currently ranks 45th on the MLB Pipeline Top Prospects List. At this rate, he’ll soon join the Top 10 – unless he races to the Majors before the listmakers have time to adjust. The folks who curate your favorite prospect list tend to be quite conservative about upgrading guys based on a partial-season breakout, and with reason! We’ve seen many players post astronomical half-seasons only to later resume a more ordinary development path.

Michael Harris II, 21, OF, ATL (MLB)

70 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .328/.357/.537

To the best of my knowledge, Harris was the third position player to be promoted straight from Double-A to a Major League starting lineup this season. The first, C.J. Abrams, was overexposed in the Majors. Cubs utilityman Christopher Morel looks right at home in the big leagues. So too does Harris.

Harris makes low-angle contact with an all-fields approach. He’s also making frequent hard and barreled contact. Both rates are above league average as measured by Statcast. Taken together, he has the traits of a high batting average hitter. Where he seemingly lags is plate discipline. He’s taken a swing-happy approach in his first exposure to the Majors. He’s especially prone to offering at pitches outside of the zone. His in-zone swing rate is only a hair above league average. His contact rate is roughly league average too. In other words, his aggression hasn’t proven costly. Yet.

It’s not uncommon for physically gifted prospects to reach the Majors, perform surprisingly well, then slump once scouting reports adjust. In Harris’ case, scouts are going to advise a bevy of breaking balls out of the zone. If he plunges into a slump, he might get a belated taste of Triple-A. If he adjusts quickly or otherwise holds his own, then he’s probably here to stay.

Harris is the midst of an eight-game hitting streak over which he’s batting .433/.469/.800 with both of his home runs and steals.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, (A+)

222 PA, 12 HR, 17 SB, .304/.351/.594

If you haven’t already heard about De La Cruz, expect to see his name appearing in more and more articles. Scouts love his build – he has light-tower power, near-elite speed, and a cannon of an arm. He already makes some of the loudest contact in the minors. While he’s mostly worked at shortstop, there’s an expectation he’ll eventually move to third base or perhaps even center field.

A prospect of De La Cruz’s ilk always comes with caveats. His plate discipline can be (generously) described as questionable. His current 6.3 percent walk rate is a marked improvement over the 4.8 percent rate he posted last season. Meanwhile, his 30.6 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his previous performance.

Given his current contact profile, he could fall into a Javier Baez-like mold. Or perhaps Oneil Cruz is the better comp. After all, they’re both physical mutants who might stick at shortstop. Cruz happened to post similar numbers as a 20-year-old in High-A, then held his own in Double-A later that year. Cruz even had questions about his plate discipline. The Reds have no incentive to rush De La Cruz, but he should sniff the upper minors in the coming months.

Matt Brash, 24, SP/RP, SEA (AAA)

19 IP, 3.32 ERA, 15.16 K/9, 5.21 BB/9

Brash entered the season in the Mariners rotation, dazzled in his debut, then proceeded to walk the world. I recall watching that first outing and worrying what would happen when hitters stopped swinging at his breaking balls out of the zone. He didn’t show any sign of being able to command anything within the strike zone. Sure enough, it quickly became a problem. The Mariners made the decision to demote him from the Major League rotation straight to the Triple-A bullpen. A relief role offers a more direct path for pitchers with Brash’s combination of filthy stuff and poor command.

Signs are pointing in the right direction. After some initial command-related struggles, Brash has shoved over his last 10 appearances. His 10-inning scoreless streak dating back to May 25 includes just five hits and two walks compared to 16 strikeouts. He once again appears to be ready for prime time. Unfortunately for him, the Seattle bullpen is fairly robust and will soon need to make way for Ken Giles (who happens to be flailing in his rehab assignment). Brash may need to await a couple injuries to reclaim a role.

George Valera, 21, OF, CLE (AA)

236 PA, 10 HR, 2 SB, .291/.398/.513

Expectations for Valera vary greatly depending on the source. I’ve seen Cleveland fans compare him to Mike Trout. I’ve also seen open skepticism about his hit tool. His performance this season hasn’t exactly supported either of these extreme interpretations. Instead, he seems to be trending as a steady regular outfielder.

Statistically, Valera works counts and runs a tolerable 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. That’s helped him to around a 23 percent strikeout rate any time he’s settled into a level. His strikeout rate tends to spike above 30 percent when he moves up a level. He’s seemingly nearing a promotion to Triple-A. We should probably expect another temporary surge in strikeouts when it happens. His pattern of struggling then dominating each rung of the minor league ladder is reminiscent of Jo Adell. Valera’s discipline should serve to ensure some kind of big league role.

Five More

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): A 2021 draftee, the Athletics promoted Gelof straight from Low-A to Triple-A last season where he held his own in a 13-plate appearance trial. They assigned him to Double-A this season. He’s hit .315/.372/.458. Gelof recently tore the labrum of his non-throwing shoulder and could miss the bulk of this season depending on the treatment plan.

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Every season, there’s one teenaged prospect who catches the imagination of every prospect watcher. Last year, it was De La Cruz. This season, it’s Chourio. Scouting reports abound with praise for the young outfielder. He’s currently swatting .347/.394/.599 with six home runs and five steals in 160 plate appearances. It’s uncommon for well-rounded athletes to show this much power as an 18-year-old. Chourio is a long way from the Majors, but his path is already paved. He just has to stay on it, and walk the remaining miles.

Andrew Painter, PHI (19): Painter made a mockery of the complex league, posting a 1.40 ERA with 16.06 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. He’s shown advanced feel for a pitcher his age. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen notes how well he combines a high, arm-side fastball with a biting slider. He also throws a curve and changeup, both of which lag behind his two primary offerings. He’ll need to develop those in order to stick in the rotation. Painter was recently promoted to High-A.

Bobby Miller, LAD (23): A flamethrowing right-hander, Miller has experienced mixed results in Double-A. He’s posted a 4.60 ERA with 9.57 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9. There’s a Hunter Greene-ish feel to Miller. His fastball runs over 100-mph with regularity, but certain characteristics cause it to play down. There’s relief risk here, especially if the Dodgers don’t trade him. They have the resources to use him in whichever role provides the most instant gratification.

Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): Last week, I observed that a sliver of the shine has come off Marte. A prominent writer reached out for my sources, and I realized I’d misplaced the relevant comment. I’ll do a better job sourcing my material going forward. Presently Marte is putting up slightly better than average production as one of the youngest players in High-A. He remains an exciting prospect.

Big Hype Prospects: Lowe, Kwan, Kirby, Moreno, Baz

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This week, we check in two players making their debut, another on the cusp of return, and two others who have mixed results.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Josh Lowe, 24, OF, TBR (AAA)

125 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .291/.368/.527

Lowe began the season in the Majors where he struggled with strikeouts en route to a .188/.257/.344 triple-slash. Upon returning to Triple-A, Lowe immediately dealt damage with his bat. He blasted four home runs in his first 46 plate appearances, but they came at the cost of 21 strikeouts (45.7% K%). Since then, Lowe’s exploits at the plate have been less emphatic. He’s hitting .300/.380/.443 with seven doubles and one home run over 79 plate appearances. The good news – and the reason for this update – is his strikeout rate has steadily declined. He’s done particularly well over his last 12 games, striking out just once every five plate appearances.

Although Lowe hasn’t socked many home runs lately, he’s still hitting plenty of doubles. The improvements to his strikeout and walk rates suggest he’s ready to return to the Majors. The Rays don’t have an odd man out among their position players. However, they’re currently carrying 14 pitchers and will need to trim down to 13 on June 19. Unless Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco make a miraculous recovery from their injuries, Lowe will be the most impactful position player already on the 40-man roster.

Steven Kwan, 24, OF, CLE (MLB)

171 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .271/.368/.368

Kwan was a revelation during the first week of the season. He has a preternatural ability to avoid missing pitches. His 2.1 percent swinging strike rate not only leads the league, it leads all player seasons since Marco Scutaro’s heyday. Unfortunately, all strengths are also weaknesses. In Kwan’s case, he rarely makes hard contact. Among qualified hitters, he ranks fifth-worst in hard contact rate, sixth-worst in average exit velocity, and second-worst in max exit velocity. Nicky Lopez, Myles Straw, and Tony Kemp are the most-similar hitters by contact quality. Kwan has recently dropped to the bottom of the Guardians lineup amid all these softly-hit baseballs.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that his bat-to-ball skills remain elite, even if the result of that contact isn’t anything special. He has a 12.3 percent walk rate compared to a seven percent strikeout rate. To put this in context, I sorted all player seasons of 150 or more plate appearances over the last decade by walk rate minus strikeout rate. Thus far, Kwan’s debut ranks seventh-best. Appearing ahead of him are Yandy Diaz (2022), Juan Soto (2020, 2021), Joey Votto (2017), Jose Ramirez (2022), and Tommy La Stella (2020). While most of the players on this list are superstar sluggers, a few names like Luis Arraez and Eric Sogard are also present. Kwan seemingly fits in this tier of player.

George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)

32 IP, 3.38 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 0.84 BB/9

On the surface, Kirby is having a fantastic debut. After skipping Triple-A entirely, he’s contributing above average outings to a Mariners club desperate to recapture their 2021 swagger. There are some causes for concern, namely the bluish hue of his Statcast metrics. Kirby has been plagued by loud contact. He hasn’t yet felt the sting – at least not in any disastrous way, but it’s only a matter of time. To truly succeed in the Majors, he’ll need to work on quality of contact.

The good news is he has multiple tools at his disposal. Presently, he’s far too predictable when it comes to attacking the strike zone. A stint in Triple-A might have helped him to learn how to work outside of the zone effectively. Now, he’ll have to learn on the fly – though it isn’t too hard of a lesson. You’ve undoubtedly heard someone say pitching is a game of chess. In this case, Kirby telegraphs his moves which helps opponents to employ stunning counters (hard contact). As he matures, Kirby will learn to use opponents’ expectations against them.

Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, TOR (AAA)

150 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .324/.380/.404

Moreno is expected to join the Blue Jays lineup tonight and will instantly become the best defensive catcher on the roster. While they both have plenty of bat for the position, neither Alejandro Kirk nor Zack Collins is well-regarded defensively. Danny Jansen, who is considered a good defender, is currently sidelined with a finger injury.

Moreno began to turn heads during 2020 then parlayed his growth into an explosive 2021 when he was on the field. Unfortunately, his season ended after just 159 plate appearances. He’s nearly matched that total this year. Although he’s continued to provide above average offense, his power has wilted. In addition to the one lonesome home run, he’s hit only eight doubles.

Shane Baz, 23, SP, TBR (AAA)

13 IP, 1.38 ERA, 13.85 K/9, 2.77 BB/9

Baz, the final piece of the Chris Archer haul, made his big league debut last season. He flashed a lightning fastball and two wipeout breaking balls. An elbow injury slowed his 2022 debut. He’s made four rehab appearances in Triple-A and has been declared ready. He is scheduled to pitch on Saturday.

Although I don’t have specific velocity readings from his outings, the results seemingly speak for themselves. Baz recorded 20 strikeouts against just eight hits, four walks, and a hit batter. His most recent appearance came against a weak Brewers affiliate. He faced 18 batters and struck out 10. To preserve his health, he’ll likely face 20 or fewer batters in his upcoming outings.

Five More

MJ Melendez (23): The return of Salvador Perez has not slowed Melendez. He’s now regularly batting fifth in the lineup while playing catcher, right field, or designated hitter. Melendez has hit a healthy .271/.340/.518 with five home runs over his last 94 plate appearances.

Juan Yepez (24): Called up when the Cardinals were dealing with a stack of injuries, Yepez has cooled in recent weeks. Since May 24, he’s batting .186/.229/.256 in 48 plate appearances. Dylan Carlson’s return could result in fewer opportunities for Yepez.

Nolan Gorman (22): Despite hitting well, Gorman has fallen into a part-time role. His .288/.362/.519 line in 58 plate appearances is partly overshadowed by a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. That’s in line with his performance in Triple-A. When he does connect, he makes loud contact.

Noelvi Marte (20): Briefly considered a Julio Rodriguez-caliber international prospect, scouts have recently taken to describing Marte in more ordinary terms. Apparently, he reached physical maturity ahead of his peers. While he still seems destined to reach the Majors in short order, a superstar ceiling might prove difficult to achieve.

Roansy Contreras (22): Contreras’s 24-batter outing on June 4 was his first in the Majors in which he faced more than 20 batters. Concerns remain about the lack of changeup, but Contreras gives every appearance of being a reliable Major League contributor. Like many young pitchers, he’s allowed more hard contact than is ideal.

Big Hype Prospects: Thompson, Rodriguez, Pratto, Perez, Bello

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This week, we take one last check-in on an uber-prospect then turn our attention to new fast-risers.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Zack Thompson, 24, SP, STL (AAA)

44.1 IP, 11.37 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 4.67 ERA

The Cardinals recently announced Thompson will join the Major League roster, presumably to start one of the games this weekend. Reading the tea leaves, this might be a single-appearance arrival in the big leagues. He should eventually be a fairly regular member of the rotation at times during this season. Like fellow left-handed Cardinals pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore, Thompson’s individual pitches draw strong grades from scouts. However, the repertoire as a whole might leave something to be desired, especially since his fastball and curve don’t tunnel effectively. In other words, they look different out of his hand. That could partly explain his elevated Triple-A ERA despite strong strikeout and walk rates.

Liberatore, a 22-year-old former Rays farmhand, was dinged for a 5.54 ERA in three starts and generated just 6.1 percent swinging strikes. Scouts from multiple outlets have noted the similarities between these left-handed starters. We’ll see if Thompson can make a stronger claim to Major League readiness.

Julio Rodriguez, 21, OF, SEA (MLB)

205 PA, 6 HR, 15 SB, .272/.322/.424

Through the first two weeks of the season, Rodriguez hit a miserable .154/.233/.179 with a 41.9 percent strikeout rate. He struggled, in part, with bad strike calls. Since then, the precocious prospect is batting .303/.346/.487 with all six of his home runs and 11 steals. His strikeout rate during that span is down to 25.9 percent and slowly improving as the season progresses. He’s rapidly establishing himself as one of the most dynamic players in the league.

The obvious next step in his development is improved plate discipline. Rodriguez drew a healthy number of walks in the minors last season, though that could have been a function of opponents working around him. Thus far, he’s proven especially susceptible to swinging outside of the zone. His early experience with egregious strike calls might have taken a mental toll. If he can improve to even a league average swing rate outside the zone, superstardom will be his.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, KC (AAA)

186 PA, 10 HR, 4 SB, .221/.349/.461

Prior to this season, Pratto was seen as ahead of teammate Vinnie Pasquantino. Now, it’s not so clear. Both players are first basemen with sufficient thump to make their presence felt out of the designated hitter slot too. The trouble is the Royals entered 2022 with a logjam of cornermen and are resistant to setting aside their veterans. In particular, Carlos Santana has performed poorly since the start of 2020, batting just .203/.322/.311 in 1,061 plate appearances. Their loyalty in the face of contrary evidence is a factor in their 16-33 record.

While Pasquantino is having the spicier season, Pratto’s bat has come alive in the last two weeks. Over his last 59 plate appearances, he’s batting .217/.390/.565 with five home runs. He profiles as a slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber, one whose patience and penchant for fly ball contact will serve both as a strength (walks and home runs) and weakness (strikeouts and low batting average).

Eury Perez, 19, SP, MIA (AA)

38 IP, 13.26 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.79 ERA

Unless I’m mistaken, Perez is the youngest member of Double-A, and he’s absolutely thriving. A looming 6’ 8’’ on the bump, Perez has uncanny command for a player his size and generates swinging strikes with ease. To that end, he’s recorded an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate against Double-A competition. He has a traditional repertoire of mid-90s fastball, curveball, and changeup. His build remains youthful. Given his height, Perez will probably add 30 or more pounds within the next couple years.

The Marlins have carefully managed his workload, keeping him to between 18 and 21 batters faced in most starts. In all probability, we won’t see Perez in the Majors this season. He might, however, find his way to the doorstep in time for an early 2023 debut.

Brayan Bello, 23, SP, BOS (AAA)

17 IP, 13.76 K/9, 4.24 BB/9, 3.18 ERA

The Red Sox have a number of interesting starting pitcher prospects headlined by Bello. While their big-league rotation is solid, they desperately need reinforcements in the bullpen. Bello kicked off 2022 in Double-A where he posted a 1.60 ERA with 11.23 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9 in 33.2 innings. He’s hardly missed a beat since joining the Triple-A rotation. A slight uptick in walk rate is the only sign he’s been challenged. Bello features a three-pitch repertoire of above average offerings. His fastball sits in the upper-90s and could play up in relief. He also throws a tight slider and a wipeout changeup.

Bello is poised to immediately reinforce the Red Sox pitching staff, either by joining the bullpen directly or freeing Garrett Whitlock to resume a late-inning role.

Five More

Grayson Rodriguez (22): Rodriguez was 20 batters into what many (including me) believe was his final minor league start when a lat strain ended his outing a few batters early. Such injuries can be complex and difficult to rehab. He’ll likely be shut down for at least several weeks before a throwing program is considered.

Ethan Small (25): Small received his first cup of coffee last Monday. He’s a southpaw whose fastball and changeup blend together beautifully even if they lack the big velocity associated with this era. His third pitch, a slider, lags behind the others. With Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff sidelined, the Brewers might need Small again soon.

Taj Bradley (21): Bradley has built upon his breakout 2021 season with a mirror replica in Double-A. He’s posted a 2.20 ERA with 11.20 K/9 and 2.20 BB/9 in 41 innings. A promotion to Triple-A should be forthcoming, at which point he’ll become one of the youngest players at the level.

Gunnar Henderson (20): Speaking of young Double-A players on the cusp of reaching Triple-A, Henderson has put together an otherworldly .433/.500/.767 line over his last 30 plate appearances. Overall, he has more walks than strikeouts along with eight home runs and 12 steals in 200 plate appearances. A promotion is overdue.

Jordan Westburg (23): Although his overall performance hasn’t been as emphatic as Henderson’s, Westburg was just as hot since May 25. He’s batting .406/.486/.594 over his last 37 plate appearances. While Henderson appears to be mid-breakout, Westburg is merely showing modest skills growth.

Big Hype Prospects: Torkelson, Duran, Rodriguez, Pasquantino, Yepez

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This week, we check in on a number of prospects already in the Majors or on the cusp of promotion.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Spencer Torkelson, 22, 1B, DET (MLB)
144 PA, 4 HR, .179/.292/.309

Those hoping Torkelson would be the next great prospect debut have been sorely disappointed. Yet, lurking below his ugly surface level stats are promising peripherals. Tork has displayed above average plate discipline and is especially resistant to swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. He’s still struggled with strikeouts (28.5% K%), but there’s reason for optimism on that front. Since his 10.2 percent swinging strike rate is relatively tame, he should trim his strikeouts as he adjusts to the league. His primary scouting attributes – an above average hit tool backed by double-plus power – await an aha moment.

A week ago, a demotion to Triple-A looked increasingly likely. However, he’s now hit .265/.333/.441 over his last 39 plate appearances with three doubles, a homer, a 10.3 percent walk rate, and a 15.4 percent strikeout rate. The not-quite-hot-streak is sufficient cause for optimism, especially for a 16-28 Tigers club.

Jarren Duran, 25, OF, BOS (AAA)
142 PA, 4 HR, 10 SB, .315/.387/.543

Duran admitted to trying to do too much in the power department last year when he hit .215/.241/.336 in 112 big-league plate appearances. Thus far, he’s played just one game in the Majors this season. We’ll see him for more soon since he’s slaying Triple-A pitching and stands to considerably upgrade a 21-23 Red Sox roster.

Duran has returned to a line drive-oriented approach which might limit his ceiling but should also improve his floor. His batted ball profile is associated with high-BABIPs. Red Sox starting right fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. isn’t bringing anything with the bat (.213/.275/.331). He might be better deployed as a backup or defensive replacement.

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
43.1 IP, 13.71 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 2.70 ERA

The Orioles have a doubleheader tomorrow. Jordan Lyles is set to start one half with the other belonging to a mystery pitcher. Baltimore has several options including Rodriguez. He’s due to start tonight so we’ll likely know by 7:05pm ET if he’ll get the call. 

Since appearing in the column last week, Rodriguez had a six-inning, nine-strikeout start. He allowed two runs on four hits and a walk. It marked the second consecutive start in which he faced 23 batters. That’s a fairly typical workload for a young Major League pitcher so it does appear he’s cleared all obvious development hurdles.

Vinnie Pasquantino, 24, 1B, KC (AAA)
182 PA, 12 HR, 3 SB, .296/.396/.638

If the 15-28 Royals intend to salvage their season, they don’t have any time left to pull their punches. The club is currently using Hunter Dozier and Carlos Santana between first base and designated hitter. Dozier is having a solid if unspectacular rebound season. Santana, despite again managing more walks than strikeouts, hasn’t brought any thump to the plate. Pasquantino, a lefty slugger, has comparable walk and strikeout rates to Santana, but he supports them with a fly ball-oriented swing and a high rate of contact. Had he arrived during the 2019 season, he’d be an instant threat to swat a 50-homer pace. Since his raw power doesn’t stand out, there’s risk he’ll run a low BABIP due to too many easy fly outs. I’m reminded Rhys Hoskins in his age 24 season (2017). Perhaps we’ll see the same homer binge too!

Juan Yepez, 24, 1B/OF, STL (MLB)
86 PA, 4 HR, .273/.337/.468

Yepez wasn’t a highly celebrated prospect until his excellent 2021 campaign. Even that performance drew lukewarm plaudits due to the lack of quality pitching in the upper-minors last season. Yepez delivered more power in Triple-A this April, popping nine home runs in 93 plate appearances. He’s followed up with four dingers in the Majors. An aggressive batter, Yepez has the makings of an above average offensive player who lacks a stable defensive home. The Cardinals are currently trying him in the outfield corners and first base. Since Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson are sidelined, there’s plenty of room to play mix and match. When they return, St. Louis and Yepez will have to reckon with a roster crunch.

Five More

Bryson Stott (24): Shortstop Didi Gregorius is slowly working his way back from a knee injury. This was an excellent opportunity for Stott to claim the starting role, but he’s hitting just .108/.195/.108 in his second stint with the club. Strikeouts have plagued him all season, even in Triple-A. A second demotion looms if he doesn’t awaken immediately.

Nolan Gorman (22): When he was promoted last week, I figured Gorman would either struggle to make contact or succeed via home runs. Instead, he produced loud contact but didn’t clear a fence. His .263/.364/.368 batting line through 22 plate appearances is safely above average, but it relied upon a .417 BABIP. Whiffs could still sink him – his 31.8 percent strikeout rate and 17.7 percent swinging strike rate would rate among the 10-worst qualified hitters.

JP Sears (26): Among pitchers with at least 20 innings, Sears leads Triple-A with a 35.9 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate (K%-BB%). On Wednesday, he tossed five strong innings against the Baltimore Orioles. Sears largely leans on a fastball-slider combo which tends to indicate a future in the bullpen.

Kyle Muller (24): A former second-round pick, Muller hasn’t yet successfully transitioned to the Majors. He walked the world in his lone big-league start this season. In the minors, he’s posted a fine 3.68 ERA backed by a lovely 12.03 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9. Scouts have noted his fastball command tends to be transient.

Jordan Groshans (22): Since arriving in Triple-A, Groshans has recorded twice as many walks as strikeouts in 78 plate appearances. Although he’s yet to homer, his .381/.474/.429 triple-slash is plenty lovely. He’s a line drive machine who could reinforce the Blue Jays later this season. Scouts expect him to slide to third base.

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