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Latest On Alexander Guerrero

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Cuban second baseman Alexander Guerrero is back on the free agent market after his engagement with the Dodgers was called off in September.  Now, the Scott Boras client is seeking a four-year deal from interested MLB teams.  However, some of the clubs that are in on Guerrero are pushing for a longer pact.

Heyman cites the Dodgers, Giants, Rangers, Red Sox, and Reds as clubs with interest in the 26-year-old.  Guerrero and Los Angeles were closing in on a five-year, $32MM deal last month but the deal fell apart for reasons that are still unknown.  The 86ing of the near-agreement also coincided with a change in representation as Guerrero left his former agent for Boras.

Guerrero played mostly shortstop in Cuba's Serie Nacional, but most scouts expect him to move to the other side of the bag for defensive purposes.  He slashed .290/.402/.576 with 21 home runs in 328 plate appearances in his final season in Cuba.  According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, Guerrero doesn't figure to be a premium talent, but he does offer impressive raw right-handed power.

AL East Notes: Steinbrenner, Peavy, Rays

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Last night, manager Joe Maddon used eight relievers to try to save the Rays' season, but it was to no avail.  “I don’t want to be a cliché, but there’s nothing to hang our heads about,” Maddon said, according to Roger Mooney of The Tampa Tribune. “There really isn’t. A great battle all season. We were an up-and-down kind of team. We hit some really good moments and some really bad moments, but at the end of the day you still won 92 games. That’s pretty good.”  Here's more out of the AL East..

  • Even though Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner says that he will exceed $189MM if Brian Cashman presents him with an offer that he feels isn't capable of winning a title, but there's virtually no chance of that happening, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  The good news is that if Alex Rodriguez is suspended through next year, the Yanks would still have about $80MM to spend.  That could be enough to re-sign Robinson Cano while going out and getting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, catcher Brian McCann, and an infield insurance policy such as Jhonny Peralta or Stephen Drew.
  • The Red Sox's midseason trade for Jake Peavy paid off in a major way, writes Tim Britton of the Providence Journal.  Having Peavy for a critical postseason game like last night s exactly why Boston pulled the trigger on the deal.
  • The Rays are heading into yet another uncertain offseason, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  Principal owner Stuart Sternberg has said the 2014 budget will be affected by the team's poor attendance this season and the Rays' were already 28th this year with a $58MM payroll.  David Price will obviously be a trade candidate and Fernando Rodney seems ticketed for a bigger payday elsewhere.

AL East Notes: Girardi, Price, Drew, Morse

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The Yankees have begun discussions with manager Joe Girardi as his three-year contract is set to expire, but Mark Gonzales of the Chicago-Tribune reports that the Cubs may be willing to top any offer the Yankees make (subscription required). According to Gonzales, Girardi's annual salary may soar over the $5MM mark, and he could exceed his previous three-year guarantee as well. Here's more out of the AL East…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post spoke with nine executives who believe that the Rays will trade David Price this offseason. Sherman points out that Price's $10MM salary could approach $15MM (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects $13.1MM), and the Rays have previously dealt Matt Garza and James Shields with two years of team control remaining. Now that they are among the league's best teams each year, the Rays must add top talent via trade instead of at the top of the draft, Sherman adds. The Rangers, Cubs and D-Backs were popular guesses for landing spots among Sherman's panel of nine executives.
  • Stephen Drew would love to return to the Red Sox and went so far as to say that he'd like to finish his career in Boston, writes WEEI.com's Rob Bradford. Bradford outlines a scenario in which Drew could remain with the Sox, though it would require shifting Xander Bogaerts from shortstop to third base and moving Will Middlebrooks across the diamond from third base to first base.
  • The Orioles aren't expected to pursue Mike Morse in free agency this offseason, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Kubatko opines that Morse could be a bargain, however, noting his limited leverage coming off a .215/.270/.381 season and pointing to Morse's monster production in 2011 (.303/.360/.550). Kubatko adds that the Nationals tried to trade Morse to the Orioles at last year's Winter Meetings, but the Nats weren't interested in parting with right-hander Jake Arrieta at the time. Arrieta eventually went to the Cubs in this summer's Scott Feldman deal.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Price, Cano

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Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter want to be starters again, but they've already proven themselves to be successful in the bullpen, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  While manager Buck Showalter will work to stretch them out in spring training, its possible that the O's would have sent Matusz to Triple-A Norfolk to work as a starter if that were an option.  Here's more out of the AL East..

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post reached out to nine baseball executives yesterday to ask if they felt David Price would get moved this winter and they all said yes.  Price, like Matt Garza and James Shields when they were dealt from Tampa Bay, is two years away from free agency, meaning that this is the time to move him.  The Rangers came up most often as the most likely destination followed by the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Padres, Red Sox, Giants, and Reds.
  • The perception around baseball that free agent Robinson Cano doesn't work hard could hurt his value, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post says that's its an unfair label.  The second baseman has a tendency to not run out grounders, but generally speaking, he has impeccable work habits.  “When he hits a groundball to the second baseman or shortstop, I know what it looks like,” hitting coach Kevin Long said. “I get it. I know it is part of the perception. He’s been talked to a million times about it. But I am telling you that is not a true picture of how hard he works or cares, and so if that is his only downfall, it is not the worst thing in the world.”
  • Kubatko revisited the Orioles' trade for Bud Norris and wonders if it will be worthwhile when all is said and done.

Quick Hits: Ellsbury, Girardi, Schuerholz, Harvey

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ESPN's Jim Bowden offers up a list of players who could boost their values in free agency with strong postseason performances (Insider's subscription required). Jacoby Ellsbury, who checks in at No. 2 on our free agent power rankings, head's up Bowden's list. Most evaluators believe he's a superior player to both B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn, two center fielders who were payed handsomely last winter, Bowden says. Ellsbury's certainly made his case for a big contract so far this postseason: After going two for five last night with an RBI and a run, he already has three hits in three at-bats tonight, doubling in a run and scoring one himself. More Saturday night MLB links, as the Rays attempt to mount a comeback at Fenway…

  • The Yankees made an offer to Joe Girardi that is believed to be in the $4MM-$5MM per-year range, Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News report. The offer would reportedly make Girardi the second-highest paid manager in the game, trailing only Mike Scioscia of the Angels. However, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says many in the Cubs organization are confident they'll have a chance to pry Girardi, their top managerial candidate, away from the Yankees.
  • Whoever ends up as the Cubs manager will find the task of nurturing young talent in a clubhouse of journeyman-type players a difficult one, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune writes. Many believe the Cubs are in line for another losing season in 2014, as several of their top young prospects aren't expected to arrive until 2015 at the earliest.
  • Shawn Windsor of the Detroit Free Press broke down the Tigers' rotation with the team's pitching coach, Jeff Jones.
  • Longtime Braves executive John Schuerholz discussed his career in an interview with Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com, including his decision to vacate the club's GM job following the 2007 season. "I believed in my heart it was time for someone else, someone more aggressive, more energetic. I always had those things, but I could feel it wasn't the same," Schuerholz said. "I went to my boss, the chairman of the team, Terry McGuirk, and said, 'Here's the keys. I'm done.'" McGuirk later convinced Schuerholz to take the team president job.
  • Matt Harvey's decision to undergo Tommy John surgery was the right one, teammate David Wright tells Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. "I told him numerous times, 'If it was me and I was in the same situation, I would have the surgery,''' Wright said. The Mets captain added that he expects GM Sandy Alderson to boost the club's payroll this offseason.
  • Turnover in the Padres' front office and ownership have hurt the team's chances to contend, Jeff Sanders of U-T San Diego writes. Padres fans have watched the club post losing seasons in five of the past six years even as teams in similarly sized markets, like the Rays and the A's, have consistently assembled winning rosters. However, things appear to be headed in the right direction under President Mike Dee and GM Josh Byrnes. “Right now, as far as having everyone on the same page, it’s as good as it’s ever been," Randy Smith, who oversees the club's player development and international scouting, says.

AL East Notes: Logan, Yankees Pitching, Delmonico

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The Red Sox's offseason additions of David Ross and Jonny Gomes, which came early and were widely questioned at the time, now appear to be inspired moves, Alex Speier of WEEI.com writes. While both players were targeted for roster depth and clubhouse character, they have certainly been valuable in the postseason, with Ross clubbing a double and scoring a run tonight. On to more AL East links:

  • Left-hander Boone Logan had arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur from his throwing elbow this week and should resume his throwing program in December, Andy McCullough of The Star-Ledger reports, citing an unnamed baseball official. The surgery was performed by Dr. James Andrews. Logan reaches free agency this winter after compiling a 3.38 ERA over 176 innings for the Yankees over the last four years.
  • The Yankees lack the high-end, young starting pitching that marks many of this year's successful teams, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. As the Yankees hope that Hiroki Kuroda will return and that CC Sabathia rebounds, their cross-town rivals the Mets have assembled an impressive collection of young arms, Sherman says. 
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com wonders if the Orioles could have gotten more for prospect Nick Delmonico, whom they sent to the Brewers this season in exchange for Francisco Rodriguez. Rodriguez posted a 4.50 ERA after being traded, allowing five home runs in 22 innings, and never appeared in the closer's role for the O's. However, Kubatko says that it "appears that Delmonico was headed out the door. It was just a matter of when and where."

AL East Notes: Girardi, Lester, Rays, Price, Janssen

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The Yankees have made a substantial offer to keep manager Joe Girardi, Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York reports. A source tells Marchand that Girardi could think about the offer through the weekend. "We are going to give him a real good reason to stay," says GM Brian Cashman. Rumors have connected Girardi to the Cubs' managerial job, which might be a possibility if he chooses to leave. The Nationals and Reds also have managerial openings that Girardi might find attractive. Girardi is currently under contract with the Yankees through the end of October. Here are more notes from the AL East.

  • Last offseason, the Red Sox and Royals discussed a possible trade involving Jon Lester and Wil Myers, Lester tells WEEI.com's Alex Speier. "[Royals manager Ned Yost] is actually a pretty good friend of mine. I flat-out called him one day and was like, 'Hey, what do you got on this?' He said, ‘Yeah, we’re trying to make it work,'" Lester says. One reason the trade ultimately didn't happen is that the Royals finally traded Myers and three other players to the Rays, the Red Sox's current ALDS opponent, for a package headlined by James Shields.
  • One assistant GM proposes that the Rays could trade David Price to the Dodgers for Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Julio Urias and Chris Withrow, Peter Gammons writes. That would give the Rays two very good hitting prospects in Seager and Pederson, a very young arm in Urias, and a big-league reliever in Withrow. MLB.com ranks Pederson and Seager the top two prospects in the Dodgers system, with Urias at No. 4.
  • The Blue Jays are "sure" to pick up their $4MM option on closer Casey Janssen, writes Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca. Janssen is coming off a strong season, so the decision would seem to be an easy one. Davidi notes that Janssen would likely make twice as much on the open market, and win a multi-year deal to boot.

International Notes: Jose Abreu, Bryan De La Cruz

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Here's the latest from the international prospect market…

  • "Every team had someone" present at Jose Abreu's showcases on Monday and Tuesday, Baseball America's Ben Badler reports, but the Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Marlins and Giants had the largest presences.  Badler reported a few days ago that the Rangers could be the favorites to sign Abreu, with the Red Sox, White Sox, Pirates and Nationals also strong contenders.
  • The Giants were known to be interested in Abreu and they sent "an especially large crew" to his showcase that included GM Brian Sabeau, Felipe Alou and Pat Burrell.  Badler finds this curious given that the Giants already have Brandon Belt, but he speculates that San Francisco could sign Abreu and then move Belt to left field to possibly shop him in a trade.
  • As for the showcase itself, Badler said Abreu "didn’t seem to hurt his stock" as a right-handed hitting power bat.  Abreu took a few grounders at third base though that may have just been as a test of arm strength, as Badler writes that Abreu is "almost certain to sign as a first baseman."
  • The Astros have signed 16-year-old Bryan de la Cruz to a contract with a $170K bonus, Ben Badler reports.  A 6'2", 175-pound outfielder from the Dominican Republic, de la Cruz has "good tools" and has shown "power potential" from the right side of the plate.  De la Cruz is the ninth player signed by Houston since the international signing period opened on July 2.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Matusz, Casilla, Red Sox

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The Orioles surrendered Pedro Strop and right-handed Jake Arrieta to land Scott Feldman for the second half of 2013 and there is mutual interest in continuing that partnership in 2014 and beyond.  It won't be cheap for the O's to keep him, however.  Our own Steve Adams recently sized up Feldman's free agent stock and estimated that he could be in line for a two-year, $17MM deal with a three-year, $25MM pact as his ceiling.  Here's more out of Baltimore and the AL East..

  • Orioles pitcher Brian Matusz could be on the block as he made $1.6MM last season and is due for a pay bump in 2014, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com.  The left-hander posted a 3.53 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 65 relief appearances last season.
  • Alexi Casilla's time with the Orioles has almost certainly come to an end, but manager Buck Showalter wishes things went differently for him in Baltimore, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. “He’s the one guy who I wished I’d been able to play him more. Whether it’s with us or somebody else, they’re going to get a good teammate and good player next year. He’s allowed us to do a lot of things that we couldn’t have done because of his versatility,” Showalter said. The O's have a $3MM option on the infielder but they'll almost certainly buy him out for $200K instead.
  • Red Sox GM Ben Cherington didn't just add pitching, power, and defense last winter, he built the team with an emphasis on character, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com.  "You don't hear that that often," said Jonny Gomes. "You hear a lot about different ways to win. The Giants did it with pitching. The Cardinals do with by bringing up a lot of young players. But maybe this (the attention to makeup) is the new way."

Free Agent Profile: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

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Jarrod Saltalamacchia was one of the ten most valuable catchers in baseball in 2013, and he had the best overall year of any free agent backstop.  The former first-round draft pick hits free agency with youth on his side.

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Strengths/Pros

Among catchers, Salty is one of the biggest power threats in the game, ranking fifth with 55 home runs since 2011.  He also ranks first in isolated power and third in slugging percentage.  He put up a career-best .466 SLG this year, banging out 54 extra-base hits.  A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia hit .294/.350/.523 against righties this year.

Saltalamacchia's walk rate continued to rise, as his 9.1% this year was his best since 2008.  He hit a career-best .273, and coupled with the walks, his .338 on-base percentage was also his best since '08.  Among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, Saltalamacchia's .804 OPS ranked sixth in all of baseball, even topping Brian McCann.

Salty is above average at blocking pitches, according to the RPP stat at FanGraphs.  Additionally, his pitch framing skills were worth 23 runs from 2007-11, according to an article by Mike Fast for Baseball Prospectus.  He's seen as the leader of the Boston pitching staff, and has their trust.

Saltalamacchia doesn't turn 29 years old until May, and is one of only a handful of free agents who will be under 30 in 2014.  As agent Jim Munsey pitches Salty on the free agent market, his client's youth is a big asset compared to someone like Carlos Ruiz or A.J. Pierzynski.

Weaknesses/Cons

A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia struggles mightily against left-handed pitching, with a .206/.269/.338 line since 2011.  In his three years with the Red Sox, they benched him against southpaws only in 2012, when Kelly Shoppach was on board for most of the season.  It's likely Salty would have batted less against lefties this year had backup David Ross not spent 74 days on the DL.  Many players have platoon splits, but Saltalamacchia's is more extreme than other catchers on the free agent market.

Saltalamacchia regularly strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances.  Among all players with 400 plate appearances in 2013, Salty's 29.6% strikeout rate is the ninth-worst.  Of those bottom nine, most hit below .235, and his .273 average does not seem repeatable.  From 2011-12, Saltalamacchia hit .228/.288/.452 across 834 plate appearances, a more reasonable expectation moving forward.  A .290 OBP is below-average even for a catcher; as a group, they're at .310 this year.

Saltalamacchia is below average at throwing out attempting basestealers and preventing them from trying, according to FanGraphs.  His caught stealing percentage of 21.2% was second-to-last among qualified catchers this year.

Saltalamacchia earned $4.5MM this year, so a qualifying offer would triple his salary.  Still, it's likely he'd decline and take his best shot at a multiyear deal elsewhere, even with the loss of leverage from having a draft pick attached.  It's easy enough to justify the loss of a draft pick to sign McCann, but less so for Saltalamacchia, especially with Ruiz and Pierzynski as alternatives.

Personal

Saltalamacchia, who has the longest last name in Major League history at 14 letters, resides in Wellington, Florida with his wife Ashley and daughters Sidney, Hunter Riley, and Sloan.  He received the Good Guy Award from Boston writers after the 2012 season, and serves as a Jimmy Fund co-captain as one of his many charitable contributions.  Jarrod is extremely involved in charitable work, and truly enjoys it.  His hobbies include hunting and fishing, according to the Red Sox media guide.

Saltalamacchia was a key figure in the legendary July 2007 trade that also sent Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Matt Harrison from the Braves to the Rangers for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay.  Three years later, he was traded to Boston.

Market

"I don't want to go anywhere else," Saltalamacchia told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe in May.  Given his familiarity with their pitching and coaching staff, Salty provides extra value for the Red Sox, and it seems likely they'll attempt to retain him.  In the organization, the Red Sox have Blake Swihart, who finished at High-A, Christian Vazquez, who spent most of the year at Double-A, and 26-year-old Ryan Lavarnway, who has played at Triple-A in each of the last three seasons and has caught 58 games in the bigs.  Lavarnway could be the immediate answer, though he slugged just .350 at Triple-A this year, and the pitching staff might not be thrilled throwing regularly to such an inexperienced catcher.  Even if the Sox need to sign a veteran catcher this winter, they seem to have enough depth to limit their offer to Saltalamacchia to three years.

In my Carlos Ruiz free agent profile, I mentioned the Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves as potential fits.  Saltalamacchia's struggles against left-handed pitching could give the Phillies pause, while the "bridge appears quite charred in both directions" regarding a potential return to Texas, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.  It's also hard to picture a return to the Braves, who will probably piece something more affordable together assuming McCann leaves.  Though the Jays could look to improve upon J.P. Arencibia, would they replace him with a different high-strikeout, potentially low-OBP catcher like Saltalamacchia, possibly at the expense of their second-round draft pick?  The Yankees are a viable landing spot, though perhaps not at four years.  The White Sox may be a potential dark horse, with potential platoon partners in-house in the form of Tyler Flowers and Josh Phegley.  Free agent alternatives to Saltalamacchia will include McCann, Ruiz, Pierzynski, and Dioner Navarro.

Expected Contract

The floor on Saltalamacchia is probably three years and $24MM or so.  ESPN's Keith Law recently wrote he thinks the market will offer Saltalamacchia a four-year deal, perhaps in the range of $10MM per year.  The remaining question is which team would reasonably do so.  Though I've yet to identify a club I think will go four years on Saltalamacchia, I agree that he will eventually find it, and I'm predicting a four-year, $36MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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