Angels Sign Weaver?
I’m not entirely familiar with the Halos Heaven blog quite yet, but the author is saying Jeff Weaver signing with the Angels is a done deal. In their words: "the ink is dry."
Also, check out the latest Manny rumor in the same post. While not quite the polar opposite of supposed offer that heavily favored the Red Sox, this one would definitely be a win for Los Angeles. But if the Angels were willing to take on Manny’s entire contract, an offer of Escobar, Shell, and Rivera plus one top Angels prospect seems equitable.
Odds And Ends: Abreu, Manny
In very minor news, ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed righthanded pitcher Jason Simontacchi to a minor league deal. He was slightly less than terrible for Triple A Memphis last year and saw 15 ugly innings in the Majors. He’s not young, but did win 11 games for the Cards back in ’02.
Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News acknowledged the Abreu to the White Sox trade rumor, branding it an "Internet rumor." Fair enough; I could’ve sworn Howard Eskin started this one though. Regardless, I think we should start referring to rumors from the Philadelphia Daily News as simply "newspaper rumors." Why try to identify the source? Too much work.
According to Conlin, "officials from both teams deny any such talks." OK. But I promise that the White Sox have interest in Abreu. Whether they have the goods for it, I’m not sure. While Conlin indicates the White Sox would be settling by adding Gavin Floyd to the deal, my sources and most Phillies fans feel that Floyd as a throw-in is overpayment by the Phils.
If this newspaper rumor about Manny Ramirez is to be believed, the Red Sox have no concept of trading players for equal value. They might as well have asked for John Lackey and Vlad while they were at it.
WEEI’s Tejada Rumor Making Rounds
The Dennis and Callahan Show on WEEI 850 in Boston broke out an improbable-sounding trade rumor this morning. Here’s the idea:
Dodgers send: Derek Lowe, Hee Seop Choi
Red Sox send: David Wells, Alex Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Tony Graffanino
Orioles send: Miguel Tejada, Luis Matos
Dodgers receive: Wells, Graffanino, Matos
Red Sox receive: Tejada, Choi
Orioles receive: Lowe, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Lester
In my humble opinion, there’s about zero chance of a deal like this going down. Then why am I posting about it? For one thing, I’ve received a host of emails about the possibility. So it seems that the people want to discuss it. Secondly, plenty of these players are likely to be dealt, just not in this combination.
Is Derek Lowe on the block? Certainly. I know for a fact that the Cubs and Phillies have expressed interest in him. I’m fairly certain he wouldn’t represent a big gain for the Orioles, however. The Phils could still try to hammer something out to obtain Lowe.
Hee Seop Choi has nowhere to play on the Dodgers, and I mentioned before that I think the Devil Rays should make a play for him. However, they’ve added Russell Branyan as a corner guy so it seems less likely at this point. There isn’t much of a market for a first baseman, but Choi still deserves a chance.
Wells is certainly likely to be dealt, and the Dodgers are a viable candidate. I mentioned yesterday that the Mets could consider Boomer as well.
Without doing any research, I have a feeling that a team can’t sign a free agent and trade him immediately. That’s why the Alex Gonzalez thing seems way off to me. Plus, Boston seemed to be trying to strengthen their defense. That is supposedly where Gonzalez’s value lies.
The Red Sox won’t be trading Youkilis and Lester. They’re far too valuable as building blocks. Graffanino should be on the move, but that’s a minor deal.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tejada dealt before the deadline, and a guy like Lester would have to be involved. There’s a fair chance Ronny Cedeno bombs and the Cubs try to re-engage the Orioles this summer. They’d be relying on the further development of minor leaguers to form an attractive package.
Matos, sure, he’ll end up somewhere. But the Dodgers don’t need him.
Latest Red Sox Rumor – Clement, Vidro, Milledge
Several emailers have alerted me to a post made over at Sons of Sam Horn late last night. A respected poster lays out this scenario:
Red Sox trade Matt Clement and Alex Cora
Nationals trade Jose Vidro and Jay Bergmann
Mets trade Lastings Milledge and Xavier Nady (with some chance of Victor Diaz instead of Milledge)
Red Sox receive Milledge and Nady
Nationals receive Clement and Cora plus cash if Clement pitches over 150 innings
Mets receive Vidro and Bergmann plus a PTNBL from either Nats or Sox depending on Vidro’s health. (Livan Hernandez could end up with the Mets as well)
I paraphrased a few things but this is all from the post. I haven’t heard anything about these players lately, but I thought the rumor would make for interesting discussion. My thoughts:
From the Red Sox point of view, it’s either a steal or a salary dump. It’d be a steal if Milledge were indeed the centerpiece. However, there are some who believe Milledge is not even a top 100 prospect. Don’t gasp, Mets fans – David Luciani knows what he’s talking about and still respects Milledge.
If the Red Sox are acquiring Diaz and Nady for Clement, I can’t see a big improvement to their club for 2006. It would have to be motivated by the $19MM owed to Clement over the next two seasons, but the Red Sox aren’t having budget problems so it doesn’t make a lot of sense. The issue of whether the Sox have starting pitching depth from which to deal has been debated endlessly; it depends on how you evaluate their young guys.
The Nationals wouldn’t be surrendering much to get Clement. I’ve been told Vidro’s health is still questionable, and he makes $23MM over the next three seasons. The team would love to get out from under that contract. 24 year-old Bergmann looks like a decent enough reliever, but not a top tier prospect. The Nationals would definitely have to bump someone out of the rotation to give Clement a spot. They are currently six deep with Tony Armas, Ryan Drese, Livan Hernandez, Brian Lawrence, Ramon Ortiz, and John Patterson.
The deal makes the least amount of sense for the Mets. It’s been stated repeatedly that the team wants to hold onto Milledge, and that is thought to be the only reason they haven’t traded for Barry Zito. So the addition of Vidro and his albatross contract doesn’t equate here. Add Livan Hernandez and you might have something, but the 30 year-old may not be ace material anymore after posting a 1.43 WHIP in 2005.
Trade Candidates Part 2
Last time we looked at players in their contract year and trade possibilities. Today we’ll open the field and see who else could be available.
Dealing Shea Hillenbrand or Eric Hinske would probably make sense for the Blue Jays. It looks like the two will enter 2006 splitting DH duty for the Jays, and Hillenbrand may have twice as much value with the bat as Hinske. The problem is figuring out which team actually has a need for a middling 1B/3B/DH type.
The Red Sox have six starters (seven if you think Papelbon is rotation-ready), but they shouldn’t be so eager to send one packing. Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling are highly unlikely to make all of their starts. Epstein might send Arroyo over to Tampa Bay for Julio Lugo anyway. More likely, of course, is a signing of Alex Gonzalez and a trade of David Wells for a spare part or prospect.
A lot of folks think Carlos Pena still has some good seasons ahead of him. For example, PECOTA projects him to hit .255/.349/.482 in 514 ABs in 2006. The Tigers could probably use some sort of contingency plan in case Carlos Guillen misses time again.
The Diamondbacks have too many veteran OFs and no place for Carlos Quentin. I’m sure Shawn Green and Luis Gonzalez are available, it’s just a matter of finding clubs to take most of their salaries. Both outfielders are still contributors.
Crisp For Marte Done Deal?
According to a source:
"I’ve been told it’s a done deal with a contingency regarding Mota’s health. If he hits the DL a predetermined amount of times Sox might have to give up another player to be named later."
This is the same rumor/source cited in the recent RotoWorld blurb on the topic. RotoWorld also points to a Paul Hoynes Cleveland Plain Dealer article from this morning. Here’s that info:
"There is movement in the Coco Crisp trade to Boston.
Indians left-hander Arthur Rhodes, according to a major league source, flew to Philadelphia on Friday morning to undergo a physical by the Philadelphia Phillies. Rhodes is part of a much discussed three-way trade among the Indians, Boston and Philadelphia.
The source said the Indians are still negotiating with Boston on the main part of the trade. The key players discussed between the Indians and Boston – Crisp and third base prospect Andy Marte and right-hander Guillermo Mota – reportedly remain the same. Other players who may be traded include Indians reliever David Riske and catcher Josh Bard and Boston catcher Kelly Shoppach and right-hander Manny Delcarmen.
Rhodes would be traded for Phillies outfielder Jason Michaels, who would replace Crisp in left field."
Comparing Crisp And Damon
Both Coco Crisp and Johnny Damon came at a very steep price. The Red Sox mortgaged part of their future, while the Yankees simply coughed up $52MM for four years. Tossing salaries and cost of acquisition aside, which team actually has the better player for 2006?
Let’s start by looking at Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic. Wins Above Replacement Player is a measure of value that combines both offense and defense into a single number.
Damon was worth 5.5 wins in 2005, while Crisp tallied 5.6. So the players had very near equal value. Baseball Prospectus projects Crisp at 4.6 wins in 2006, whereas Damon projects at 5.7. It will be interesting to see if those projections are changed before the ’06 season begins.
As leadoff hitters, who gets on base more often? Damon has a career OBP of .353, but his last two seasons had rates of .380 and .366. Crisp has a more pedestrian .332 career OBP, with marks of .344 and .345 in recent years. It’s not a huge difference, but Damon has a clear advantage here.
Damon’s overall offense is superior, probably worth about one win more than Crisp.
How about defense? Damon posted 14 FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) in 2005 and 22 the season before. Crisp managed 15 FRAR in left field last season, and 11 as mostly a CF in 2004. His playing time was limited, but it still looks like Damon may have a slight edge here. Damon had a 2.93 range factor in 2005 to Crisp’s 2.23. Crisp posted a 2.32 mark in 2004. Fielding stats are imperfect, but it doesn’t hurt to consider what’s available.
One other factor to consider is that Damon is entering his age 32 season while Crisp is entering his age 26. That’s an important six year difference. Crisp’s most comparable player, Jim Piersall, posted a .293/.350/.449 line at age 26. Damon’s closest comp is Kenny Lofton, who hit .301/.405/.432 at age 32 but managed just 465 ABs. Obviously these are just comparisons, but Lofton basically became a part-time player due to injuries and declining skills at age 35. After hitting .322 at age 31, Piersall didn’t contribute much in any season.
It’s close, but I’d rather have Damon if I was trying to win it all in 2006. Certainly Boston’s decision is defensible considering Damon’s contract and age.
Crisp For Marte Trade Complete?
Tony Massarotti of the Boston Herald had the scoop last night:
"According to baseball sources, the Red Sox and Cleveland Indians have agreed in principle on a deal that will bring outfielder Coco Crisp to the Sox in a multi-player trade. The deal was agreed upon several days ago under the condition that Cleveland be able to acquire another outfielder to replace Crisp, presumably Jason Michaels from the Philadelphia Phillies."
While everyone seems to agree that Crisp and Marte are the principles and the teams have been talking quite a bit, no other source that I’ve found has confirmed this trade as complete. Chris Snow of the Boston Glove indicates that talks are still ongoing.
Should the deal go down, it appears that the Indians plan to hold Marte back for one more year. According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer:
"The Indians feel Marte will have to spend this season at Class AAA regardless of his position, which doesn’t do them much good if they’re going to challenge Chicago in the AL Central."
The Indians restructured and exercised Aaron Boone‘s 2006 option in August of 2005, apparently deciding that there was no better alternative considering the price ($3.75MM). In his age 32 season, Boone posted a .243/.299/.378 line in 511 at-bats. That performance ranked 36th offensively among third baseman in 2005. Boone spent much of the season shaking off the rust after missing 2004 because of a torn ACL. He did manage to improve to .276/.336/.394 in the second half.
Still, you have to think the Indians made the decision on Boone’s option before they realized Marte was available. Given that Marte hit .275/.372/.506 as a 21 year-old in Triple A, he would very likely approximate or exceed Boone’s 2006 production at a tenth of the cost.
Spinning Edgar Renteria, Guillermo Mota, and cash into Coco Crisp is a fine deal on the surface for the Red Sox. However, they may have opened up a new hole by solving their center field problem. The team will now be relying on a positive contribution from Mike Lowell, who is no safe bet for a rebound following a woeful .236/.298/.360 line in 2005. Lowell was, in fact, one of the few third basemen worse than Aaron Boone in 2005.
The addition of Alex Gonzalez is also probably not a good thing for Boston. Even with defense considered, the Sox would be lucky to get an Orlando Cabrera-ish contribution in 2006. (And I’m referring to Cabrera circa 2005, who hit .257/.309/.365).
The real winner in all of this is the Indians. Even if they do delay Marte’s debut, Crisp wasn’t irreplaceable as a left fielder. The average AL left fielder hit .278/.333/.437 in 2005, while Crisp hit .300/.345/.465. Marte projects to be a solid regular and has star potential.
Griffey To Boston For Arroyo?
Well, Boston Dirt Dogs has an interesting one up just now. Boston’s WEEI 850 is reporting that a possible Ken Griffey Jr. for Bronson Arroyo trade could be in the works. I’ll do my best to find more.
On the surface, that seems like a terrible deal for the Red Sox. Arroyo is about to be locked in for three years at a great price, and Griffey is probably a lock to play less games in ’06 than he did in ’05. Not to mention Griffey’s huge contract and lousy defense.
Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.