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Angels Claim Alfonso Rivas

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The Angels have claimed first baseman Alfonso Rivas off waivers from the Guardians, per announcements from both teams. Cleveland designated Rivas for assignment last week. The Angels’ 40-man roster is now full.

Rivas, 27, lost his roster spot when the Guardians made their one-year contract with backup catcher Austin Hedges official. He’d only been in the organization for about a month, having come over in an early November waiver claim.

Rivas has seen MLB time in each of the past three seasons, splitting those years between the Cubs, Padres and Pirates. He hit well in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances during his 2021 MLB debut with the Cubs but carries a more tepid .233/.316/.342 slash in 410 trips to the plate over the two previous seasons.

That said, Rivas has a minor league option remaining and an excellent track record at the game’s top minor league level. He’s a career .313/.424/.492 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons and has drawn a walk in a massive 15.1% of his plate appearances there. He’s more of a gap hitter than true power bat, evidenced by his 40 doubles and 15 long balls in 637 career plate appearances in Triple-A.

In some respects, Rivas has a skill set similar to that of expected Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel, who raced to the Majors and debuted not even two months after being selected in the first round of the 2023 draft. Both are lefty-swinging first basemen with excellent plate discipline and more of a gap approach than a prototypical slugging first base profile. Schanuel, however, has a better hit tool, evidenced by his tiny 14.4% strikeout rate in a 132 plate appearance MLB debut (again, just months after playing NCAA ball).

Because Rivas has a minor league option remaining, he’s a sensible fallback option if the Angels both miss out on a larger upgrade at first base/designated hitter and see Schanuel struggle (be it in spring training or in the Majors early in the year). He could also serve as a lefty bat off the bench, if the Halos forgo further bench additions and prefer Rivas to 26-year-old first baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage.

Angels, Jake Marisnick Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Angels have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran outfielder Jake Marisnick, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Presumably, the Equity Baseball client will be in camp on as a non-roster invite in spring training.

Marisnick, 33 in March, split the 2023 season between the White Sox, Tigers and Dodgers. Though he appeared in 46 games between the three teams, he was often used as a defensive replacement or pinch-runner, evidenced by the fact that he tallied just 83 big league plate appearances on the year. Marisnick slashed .237/.280/.408 in that tiny sample — numbers that roughly align with his career .228/.281/.385 batting line (2247 plate appearances).

While he’s never been much of a threat at the plate, the fleet-footed Marisnick is one of the most talented and underrated defenders of the current generation. He’s logged more than 400 innings in both outfield corners in his career and racked up nearly 4500 innings in center field, posting plus defensive grades at each spot. Marisnick has been credited with a massive 80 Defensive Runs Saved and 53 Outs Above Average across the outfield (including 54 DRS and 40 OAA in center field). Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Marisnick ranks eighth among all MLB outfielders in DRS and 12th in OAA, despite generally being used as a part-time player.

Marisnick’s 2023 sprint speed still ranked in the 87th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast, while his arm strength clocked into the 86th percentile. He clearly still has the tools to serve as a plus defender in the outfield, and with Mike Trout becoming increasingly susceptible to stints on the injured list in recent years, having an elite defensive fallback option makes some sense.

Between Trout, Taylor Ward, Mickey Moniak and the out-of-options Jo Adell, the Angels have at least  four outfield options ahead of Marisnick on the depth chart already. That might make it difficult for him to make the Opening Day roster, but Marisnick could step up in the event of an injury or trade of someone like Adell, and he has a decent enough track record against left-handed pitching (.237/.293/.417) to be a viable platoon partner for Moniak in a pinch.

The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Angels Reportedly Sign Tayron Guerrero To Minor League Deal

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Right-hander Tayron Guerrero has signed a minor league deal with the Angels, reports Francys Romero.

Guerrero, 33 in January, has 106 innings of major league experience but hasn’t appeared in the bigs since 2019. He signed a minor league deal with the Reds going into 2023 but was released in June after posting a dreadful 11.51 earned run average in 22 2/3 innings. That’s a small sample of work and the ERA was surely inflated by unlucky numbers in terms of batting average on balls in play and runners stranded, but he also walked more batters than he struck out.

After being released, he caught on with the Diablos Rojos del Mexico of the Mexican League. He posted a 1.17 ERA there, but in an even smaller sample of 7 2/3 innings. He then joined Naranjeros de Hermosillo for some winter ball in Mexico. He has a 1.10 ERA in 16 1/3 innings for that club, striking out 26 of the 65 batters he has faced while walking 7, respective rates of 40% and 10.8%. Romero relays that Guerrero hit 101.6 mph on the radar gun.

That velocity has long been an enticing part of the package with Guerrero but he hasn’t always been able to harness it. He walked 13.6% of batters faced in his brief major league tenure and 18.8% of Triple-A hitters when with the Reds in 2023. He has been in better form since being released and heading to Mexico, as he didn’t issue any walks for the Diablos and then had a reasonable rate with the Naranjeros.

For the Angels, there’s no risk in bringing him aboard via a minor league deal and seeing what his control looks like early in the year. If everything is clicking, perhaps Guerrero can earn his way onto a roster spot, though he is now out of options and can’t be sent back down to the minors without being exposed to waivers.

Report: Angels Did Not Match Dodgers’ Offer For Ohtani

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The Dodgers recently signed Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700MM contract, though with heavy deferrals that make the net present value significantly less than that. He was reportedly discussing similar deals with clubs like the Giants and Blue Jays but Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that Angels’ owner Arte Moreno did not want to match those offers.

As mentioned, the deal with the Dodgers is heavily deferred, with Ohtani set to make just $2MM annually during the course of the deal. He will then received $68MM per year for the 10 years after he has played the seasons covered by the contract. That brings down the net present value, with the league valuing it at just over $460MM while the MLBPA has it at $437,830,563. Farhan Zaidi, the president of baseball operations of the Giants, recently revealed that the club offered Ohtani essentially the same deal he accepted from the Dodgers. The Blue Jays were “right there,” according to a report from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

All reports indicated that Ohtani and his reps were driving a lot of the negotiations. It was apparently Ohtani’s idea to have such an unusual contract structure, which he proposed as it would allow the signing club more financial freedom in the short term to build a winning club around him. The Dodgers, Giants and Blue Jays were all seemingly willing to meet his ask in comparable ways, but he chose the Dodgers and their unparalleled track record of recent success.

The Angels, however, don’t appear to have been at the final table. Per the report from Harris, Ohtani’s agent Nez Balelo reached out to them towards the end of the process and gave them a chance to convince Ohtani to stay. But Moreno was reportedly unwilling to match the offer Ohtani eventually signed. “It’s a place that he really loved to play. He loved the people there, everything. So we didn’t want to miss the idea of giving them an opportunity,” Balelo said “But at the end, it just wasn’t going to work.”

As Harris points out, it’s not clear Ohtani would have seriously considered a return to Anaheim even if they were willing to match the asking price. But the fact that they were not willing to do so seems to eliminated any chances of a reunion. It’s unknown what kind of final offer the Angels did make.

Moreno has generally been unafraid to spend big on star players, giving big deals to players like Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon. It’s interesting that he decided to pull the reins on the Ohtani chase, though it’s unknown exactly why or how close they were.

The club will now have to enter a post-Ohtani world and try to chart a course forward without him. General manager Perry Minasian has made it clear that the club is not rebuilding and is not trading Trout. In 2023, they ran their payroll up against the competitive balance tax, ultimately staying narrowly beneath it. Roster Resource pegs their 2024 CBT number at $168MM at the moment, almost $70MM below next year’s base threshold. That should give them plenty of room to make some bold strikes, likely to upgrade the pitching staff. Despite having both Ohtani and Trout on the roster for the past six years, the Angels haven’t finished above .500 since 2015, made the playoffs since 2014 or won a postseason game since 2009.

Latest On J.D. Martinez’s Market

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Among the top free agents on the market his offseason, one could argue that no player has had his market impacted more by the presence of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani than veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After all, the Dodgers declined to extend Martinez a qualifying offer last month despite interest in a reunion due to the complications that would arise if the club landed both Martinez and Ohtani. With Ohtani now signed in LA on a record-shattering $700MM deal, its hard to imagine the Dodgers-Martinez reunion both sides appeared to have interest in coming together. To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update regarding Martinez’s market, suggesting that the Angels, Mariners, Mets and Diamondbacks could be among the teams in play for his services now that he’s unlikely to return to Chavez Ravine. Among that group, only Arizona had previously been connected to the veteran slugger this winter.

The Angels certainly make plenty of sense as a suitor for Martinez now that they know Ohtani won’t be returning to Anaheim in 2024. After all, the club has made it clear they have no plans to launch a rebuild this offseason as the club dismissed speculation that Ohtani’s impending departure could lead to a trade of Mike Trout this offseason. With Ohtani moving on in 2024 and a 2023 record of just 73-89, the club has a lot of work to do if it hopes to compete for a playoff spot next season.

Of course, improved health from the likes of Trout, Logan O’Hoppe and Anthony Rendon could represent internal avenues toward improvement, but it’s hard to imagine the Angels competing without an external offensive addition to help mitigate the loss of Ohtani. Martinez, who slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs and a 135 wRC+ last season, was outclassed only by Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna among regulars at DH last season and would go a long way toward filling the offensive hole left by Ohtani.

As for the Mariners, the addition of Martinez would surely benefit a lineup that has lost Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Ford this offseason without a clear everyday replacement for any of those bats. What’s more, the club has shed plenty of payroll this offseason and has previously been connected to fellow righty slugger Jorge Soler this offseason. Martinez, 36, posted a stronger offensive season than the 31-year-old Soler in 2023 and could potentially be a more impactful addition to Seattle’s lineup next season.

With that being said, the Mariners have made clear their desire to improve their lineup’s contact skills headed into 2024, and Soler’s 25.7% strikeout rate figures to be much more palatable than Martinez’s 31.4% mark last season. What’s more, while MLBTR projected Soler for a $45MM guarantee that clocks in higher than Martinez’s $40MM figure on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, it’s worth noting that Soler’s relative youth could allow him to secure a longer contract than Martinez, which would tamp down the average annual value of the deal and potentially allow the Mariners to more room in their budget for further offensive additions.

The Mets are perhaps the most curious fit for Martinez among the listed teams. While the club received a mediocre 100 wRC+ from their DH slot (the 12th-worst figure in the majors) last season and subsequently parted ways with Daniel Vogelbach at the non-tender deadline last month, it’s worth noting that the club has plenty of young bats such as Mark Vientos and Brett Baty who could command playing time next season and that adding a 36-year-old DH to a club that’s more focused on the future than 2024 may not be the best use of the club’s resources. On the other hand, the only Mets regulars to post above-average seasons by measure of wRC+ last season who will remain with the club in 2024 are Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo. Adding the bat of Martinez to the middle of the club’s lineup next season would add some much-needed offensive firepower and help the club compete in what is shaping up to be the final year before Alonso heads into free agency next winter.

Braves Acquire Max Stassi, David Fletcher

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The Braves and Angels have lined up a swap of change-of-scenery candidates. Atlanta announced the acquisition of infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi for minor league first baseman Evan White and reliever Tyler Thomas. The Braves’ 40-man roster count is up to 36; the Halos will be at 39 once they finalize one-year free agent deals for Luis García and Adam Cimber.

It’s an odd fit for the Braves, who aren’t in need of catching help. Atlanta has Sean Murphy as their starter and re-signed Travis d’Arnaud to an $8MM deal to work as the backup. Stassi gives them a third experienced, fairly highly-priced catcher. Since it’s unlikely they’d want to carry all three — none of whom can be sent to the minor leagues — Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets that they plan to flip Stassi elsewhere.

Atlanta has already moved a trio of players whom they’d acquired in previous offseason trades. Right-hander Jackson Kowar, added from the Royals for Kyle Wright, went to the Mariners in the deal that brought in Jarred Kelenic. As part of the Kelenic trade, the Braves agreed to take on salary on the underwater contracts for left-hander Marco Gonzales and White. Gonzales was dealt to the Pirates for a minimal return on Tuesday, while White is now himself shipped away in this swap with the Angels.

Now they’ll try to move Stassi, who is under contract for $7MM next season. He’s also guaranteed a $500K buyout on a $7.5MM team option for the 2025 campaign. The Halos had signed him to an extension on the heels of a combined .250/.333/.452 showing between 2020-21. That contract didn’t work as the organization envisioned. Stassi slumped to a .180/.267/.303 line over a personal-high 375 plate appearances in 2022.

The 32-year-old didn’t appear at all in 2023. Stassi began the season on the injured list with a left hip strain. While he recovered from the hip issue midseason, he remained away from the team to attend to a family issue. After the season, Stassi and his wife Gabrielle revealed their son had been born three months prematurely in mid-April and had spent the past few months in NICU. In November, Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that Stassi was planning to play in 2024 (link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register).

In the season’s final month, the Angels had placed Stassi on the restricted list. That ensured he wouldn’t be paid for the last few weeks as part of the organization’s ultimately successful effort to limbo below the luxury tax line. There’s no public indication that affected the franchise’s relationship with Stassi, but he also seemed an arguably superfluous part of the roster. Logan O’Hoppe has emerged as the top option behind the plate with Matt Thaiss backing him up.

Fletcher likewise signed an extension that hasn’t panned out. The glove-first infielder inked a $26MM guarantee in April 2021. At the time, the Angels envisioned him as a long-term starter at second base thanks to a strong showing in the shortened 2020 season. That looks like an anomaly, as Fletcher’s offense has evaporated in the three years since then. Going back to the start of the ’21 campaign, he’s a .259/.296/.327 hitter.

The Angels twice ran Fletcher through waivers this year. He played in only 33 MLB games while getting into 85 contests at Triple-A Salt Lake. Fletcher made a ton of contact with minimal power impact at the top minor league level, hitting .330/.382/.428 with a microscopic 6.3% strikeout rate across 380 plate appearances.

Fletcher will make $6MM next season, is guaranteed $6.5MM in 2025 and will take home at least a $1.5MM buyout on a ’26 club option. That’s well above what he’d have received were he a free agent this offseason. He’s a plus defender at each of second base, shortstop and third base. For the Braves, he’ll serve as utility infield depth behind Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley. It’s a role that had been played by Nicky Lopez in the second half of last season, but Atlanta packaged him in the Aaron Bummer trade with the White Sox.

It’s strictly a financial move for the Angels, who also clear two spots on their 40-man roster. White had been a highly-regarded prospect during his time with the Mariners. Seattle signed him to an extension before his MLB debut. That didn’t work, as the righty-hitting first baseman turned in a .165/.235/.308 line in 84 big league games between 2020-21. White hasn’t played in the majors in two years and has barely played in Triple-A because of various injuries, including multiple surgeries on his left hip.

Atlanta passed White through waivers just yesterday. The Angels will take on the remainder of his contract: $7MM next season, $8MM in 2025 and a $2MM buyout on a ’26 club option. He’ll likely start next season in Salt Lake.

Thomas is a left-handed pitcher who turns 28 in a few weeks. The Braves had just selected him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft out of the Mets organization. The Fresno State product has appeared in parts of six minor league seasons. He has a 4.30 ERA over 130 2/3 career innings at Double-A with scant experience at the Triple-A level.

The Braves agree to take on an extra $6MM next season, while the Halos are assuming an additional $1.5MM between 2025-26. Atlanta is also assuming $6MM in luxury tax obligations for the upcoming season. A traded player’s luxury tax number is recalculated as the average annual value of what remains on their contract at the time of the trade (including option buyouts). Stassi is guaranteed $7.5MM for one season, while the remaining $14MM over two years on Fletcher’s deal is a $7MM average value. White is due $17MM over two seasons, an $8.5MM annual hit. There’s a $6MM gap between the $14.5MM which Atlanta is assuming versus the $8.5MM they’re shipping out.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the terms of the trade.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Shohei Ohtani Decision Reportedly “Imminent”

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Shohei Ohtani’s cloak-and-dagger free agent saga has held up the top end of the free-agent and trade markets alike through the offseason’s first several weeks, but a decision from the two-time AL MVP is “imminent” and could be announced at some point today, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. In a segment on MLB Network (video link), Morosi adds that the Blue Jays have improved their standing in the Ohtani derby this week and are a finalist alongside the Dodgers, at the very least.

At last check, the Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Cubs were all involved in the bidding. The possibility of a dark-horse suitor that’s flown under the radar to this point can’t be ruled out, given the secretive nature of Ohtani’s free agency. Anecdotally, it’s of note that Friday marks six years, to the day, since Ohtani made his last free-agent decision, when he signed with the Angels.

Ohtani and the Blue Jays are believed to have met at the team’s spring training complex in Florida this week. Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts acknowledged during the Winter Meetings that his club had met with Ohtani and considered him their “top priority,” prompting some hand-wringing among Dodger fans that even such a basic acknowledgment of the obvious might work to their detriment. The Giants are reported to have met with Ohtani last weekend at Oracle Park. The incumbent Angels, of course, are already a known and familiar commodity for Ohtani. The Cubs’ status in the bidding remains least certain, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer publicly denied reports this week suggesting that his team’s optimism regarding Ohtani had waned.

Bidding on Ohtani was widely expected to eclipse $500MM, even after the slugger/ace underwent elbow surgery following the 2023 season. He’s not expected to pitch in 2024 but is on track to be ready to be in his next team’s Opening Day lineup as a designated hitter. There’s been some speculation this week that the bidding could push closer to a staggering $600MM. It’s heavily speculative at this juncture, given the by-design quiet nature of Ohtani’s foray into the open market.

Ohtani, 29, will be a transformative presence in any lineup he joins. A career .274/.366/.556 hitter, he’s stepped up his offensive game in recent seasons. He’s not quite on the same level as Aaron Judge or longtime teammate Mike Trout in terms of per-game production, but Ohtani has also been in the lineup more than both players over the past three seasons, even after missing the final several weeks of the ’23 campaign due to that elbow injury and an oblique strain. Since 2021, only Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson have hit more than Ohtani’s 124 home runs. Only Judge, Trout and Yordan Alvarez have topped Ohtani’s massive 157 wRC+ (indicating that he’s been 57% better than a league average hitter after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment). In that time, Ohtani carries a .277/.379/.585 batting line.

That’s only half the story with Ohtani, who finished fourth in 2022 American League Cy Young voting and has emerged as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter — when healthy. That’s a massive caveat in light of an earlier Tommy John surgery and now a second elbow procedure (details of which remain nebulous to public onlookers). But over the past three seasons, Ohtani has pitched 428 1/3 innings 2.84 ERA ball with an elite 31.4% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate.

If Ohtani is able to return to those heights following a second elbow surgery, there’s a very feasible path to him simultaneously winning a league MVP and Cy Young Award. His ability to regain that form, of course, is the single largest question mark surrounding him. There’s no doubt that Ohtani will pitch again in some capacity, but his expected level of success will remain a talking point until he actually takes the mound. At this point, he’s proven that it’s foolish to bet against him — but even if Ohtani can’t recapture that ace form, there’s plenty of value in him beyond that of a pure designated hitter. If he could pitch even as a capable mid-rotation starter or perhaps effective reliever, that’d be immensely valuable in and of itself.

And, even if Ohtani is simply never able to regain his form as a viable MLB pitcher, there’s no reason to think he’d “only” be a designated hitter. He’s played in the outfield both in Japan and (far more briefly) with the Angels. Ohtani still possesses above-average sprint speed, per Statcast, and there’s some reason to think he could improve upon last year’s 63rd-percentile ranking if he were focusing only on hitting and playing the outfield. He’s swiped 86 bases in his career, including a 20-for-26 showing this past season. The arm strength is clearly there, as is the raw athleticism needed to handle the position. At that point, Ohtani could be viewed in a somewhat comparable light to that of Judge, who signed a nine-year, $360MM contract when he was two years older than Ohtani is at present.

The off-field value associated with Ohtani can’t be discounted, either. Any team signing him will be tapping into a global fanbase that’ll boost merchandise sales, ticket sales, television ratings and more. Ohtani’s broad-reaching brand won’t pay for his salary on its own, but it’s a clear factor that any interested club will be weighing and attempting to contextualize/value when putting forth its best offer.

With a decision looming on Ohtani, let’s open it up for MLBTR readers with a poll:

Angels “Aggressively Scanning” Trade Market For Starting Pitching

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While the Angels are still in the mix to retain franchise face Shohei Ohtani, that hasn’t stopped the club from looking to improve other areas of its roster in the meantime. Fabian Ardaya and Sam Blum The Athletic reported this evening that the Angels have aggressive in the search for starting pitching upgrades on the trade market, engaging with rival clubs on multiple different fronts. That includes top-of-the-market rental arms such as Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, and Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, each of whom has frequently seen their name appear in the rumor mill this offseason.

Of the three, Glasnow has been the most frequently discussed as a trade candidate this offseason thanks to the Rays’ payroll situation and his hefty $25MM salary for the 2024 campaign. Such an addition would almost certainly push the Angels to the point of paying into the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history in the event they were able to reunite with Ohtani, who could command an annual salary in the range of $50MM or more. Bieber and Burnes, by contrast, would be somewhat more palatable additions from a financial perspective. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the pair of right-handers to earn $12.2MM and $15.1MM in their respective final trips through arbitration this winter.

On the other end of the spectrum, Ardaya and Blum also report the Angels engaged with the Blue Jays regarding right-hander Alek Manoah, though those discussions did not ultimately gain traction. Even so, the club’s interest in adding Manoah to their rotation mix is noteworthy nonetheless. As opposed to the aforementioned trio of rental aces, Manoah won’t turn 26 until next month and would come with four seasons of team control. On the other hand, the right-hander’s production fell off a cliff in 2023 on the heels of his Cy Young finalist campaign in 2022. Manoah entered 2023 with a career ERA of 2.60 and FIP of 3.51, but saw those strong numbers collapse across 19 disastrous starts for Toronto this past season during which he posted a 5.87 ERA and 6.01 FIP in 87 1/3 innings of work. Manoah saw his strikeout rate fall to just 19% in 2023 as his walk rate more than doubled, making him more of a long-term change of scenery candidate than a surefire, short-term improvement to the rotation mix in Anaheim.

Despite the wide variety of arms the Angels are reportedly checking in on, Ardaya and Blum suggest that the club’s willingness to engage on the markets of these rotation arms, particularly those with only one year of team control remaining, could tip the club’s hand regarding their plans for the offseason regardless of whether they manage to secure Ohtani. If the club were to surrender young talent in a deal for an arm such as Burnes, Glasnow, or Bieber, that would be perhaps the clearest indicator yet that GM Perry Minasian and his front office have no intention of initiating a rebuild this offseason, regardless of Ohtani’s ultimately destination.

With or without Ohtani, the club is certainly justified in looking for improvements to its starting rotation for next season if they intend to compete in 2024. Of the five players to make at least 20 starts for the Angels in 2023, only Ohtani posted an ERA below 4.00, leaving the collective rotation staff with a 4.47 ERA and 4.52 FIP, both of which were below the league average last season. That would leave the club in line to benefit from an impact addition to the rotation even if the club could rely on Ohtani to start every sixth day next season. That need is even further exacerbated by the fact that Ohtani won’t take the mound at all in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery back in September. Even if the club manages to retain their superstar slugger, it seems unlikely they’d be able to substantially improve on their 73-89 finish last season without giving their starting five a significant facelift.

The report doesn’t name specific pieces discussed as part of a potential return package of any of the players the Angels are pursuing. That being said, Ardaya and Blum note that rival clubs have been “intrigued” by the Angels’ group of fast-rising youngsters like Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel. It would be something of a surprise to see the club move any of those potentially core young pieces, particularly in a deal for a rental player. That being said, the Angels have been aggressive in trades for rental pieces in the past, including as recently as this past summer when they shipped out multiple top prospects to land Lucas Giolito from the White Sox.

Angels Sign Adam Cimber

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The Angels announced the signing of free agent reliever Adam Cimber to a one-year contract. The Shahpar Sports client is reportedly guaranteed $1.65MM.

It’s a rebound flier on the veteran right-hander. Cimber is coming off a 7.40 ERA across 20 2/3 innings, easily the worst showing of his career. A submariner, he had previously found plenty of success despite mid-80s fastball velocity. Cimber had turned in a sub-3.00 ERA while topping 70 innings in both 2021 and ’22 before this year’s struggles.

At his best, Cimber has shown plus control with the ability to keep the ball on the ground. The grounders have dipped in the past couple seasons, contributing to a significant spike in home runs this year. It’s possible that injuries played a role, as Cimber spent the final three months of the season on the injured list with a shoulder impingement.

The Jays non-tendered him a couple weeks ago in lieu of a projected $3.2MM arbitration salary. While Cimber takes a pay cut on his next deal, he’ll get an immediate MLB opportunity to right the ship. With between five and six years of service time, he’ll return to free agency next offseason.

Los Angeles has taken a volume approach to their bullpen in the early stages of the offseason. The Halos signed Adam Kolarek for $900K and agreed to terms with Luis García on a $4.25MM deal. They’re a trio of buy-low veterans who’ll add some low-cost experience to the middle relief corps. The Angels have Carlos Estévez in the ninth inning and harder-throwing youngsters Ben Joyce and José Soriano in the middle to late innings.

Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic first reported the Angels and Cimber were in serious discussions. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported they were in agreement on a one-year, $1.65MM deal.

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