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Alec Marsh

Royals Notes: Marsh, Wright, Harvey

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Royals fans received some tough news today regarding their rotation depth. As noted by Anne Rogers of MLB.com, right-hander Alec Marsh has been shut down from throwing after the shoulder injury he’s been nursing all season did not respond well to his throwing progression. Meanwhile, Kyle Wright was scratched from his start for Triple-A Omaha yesterday due to tightness in his left oblique.

Marsh, 27, was a second-round pick by the Royals back in 2019 but did not make his MLB debut until the 2023 season. He wasn’t especially impressive during his rookie year, with a 5.69 ERA and nearly matching 5.70 FIP in 74 1/3 innings of work. He followed up that rather pedestrian performance in a swing role with a solid season as the Royals’ fifth starter last year, however. In 129 innings of work, Marsh posted a 4.53 ERA (92 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. That’s solid enough back-of-the-rotation production overall, Marsh’s season was more complicated than that.

The right-hander started off strong with a 3.63 ERA and 3.84 FIP in his first 12 starts of the 2024 campaign, but he surrendered 26 runs in his next 34 1/3 frames before being optioned down to Triple-A. After nearly a month in the minors, Marsh resurfaced down the stretch and posted a 3.90 ERA with a 4.76 FIP in his final six starts of the season. His up-and-down season left him on the periphery of Kansas City’s rotation mix and led the club to listen to offers on him early in the offseason. The Royals ultimately shipped Brady Singer out instead and kept Marsh in the fold, but the right-hander has been sidelined by shoulder soreness since the start of Spring Training.

Marsh has attempted to start up a throwing program multiple times since then, but has suffered setbacks each time and been forced to halt his progress. Marsh had progressed to throwing off the mound in this latest attempt at a comeback, but did not progress to facing hitters before he was shut down. He won’t throw for a couple of weeks yet and is scheduled to be re-evaluated on July 9, according to Rogers.

As for Wright, the right-hander has never appeared in the majors as a member of the Royals. He debuted in Atlanta all the way back in 2018 and spent parts of six seasons in the majors with the organization but various injuries led him to make just 60 appearances over those six years. 30 of those appearances were during his dominant 2022 season, when he posted a 3.19 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 180 1/3 innings en route to a tenth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting. He was once again set to be a fixture of the Atlanta rotation in 2023 but was sidelined by a shoulder issue that eventually required surgery.

He was swapped to Kansas City not long after undergoing the procedure, which would cost him the entire 2024 campaign. He’s yet to make it back to the majors, as he was optioned to Triple-A earlier this week following a lengthy rehab process. Unfortunately, the aforementioned oblique tightness knocked him out of what would have been his very first post-rehab start. Rogers writes that Wright is expected to head to Kansas City for an MRI on Monday, and that the Royals will determine next steps from there. Wright has struggled to a 5.48 ERA in eight starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year, but some amount of rust was to be expected given his nearly two-year layoff from pitching. If Wright’s oblique issue doesn’t set him back even further, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the righty make his Royals debut later this year.

In more positive news, MLB.com notes that right-hander Hunter Harvey is making progress as he works his way back from a teres major strain. Harvey went on the shelf in early April and isn’t expected back until August, but he’s nonetheless poised to take a big step in his rehab process tomorrow when he takes the mound for what is expected to be a “light” throwing session. Despite the fact that it sounds like he won’t be throwing at full strength at this point, much less to hitters, taking a mound at all is a major step for a pitcher who has been limited to playing catch so far in his rehab. Harvey was a major acquisition by the Royals last summer but has thrown just 11 innings for Kansas City since the trade, including 5 1/3 frames this year.

Royals Select Luke Maile

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The Royals announced that they have selected the contract of catcher Luke Maile. Infielder Tyler Tolbert was optioned to Triple-A Omaha to open an active roster spot. To get Maile onto the 40-man, right-hander Alec Marsh was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

The Royals already have Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin on the roster, so this move gives them three catchers. However, Perez was removed from last night’s game due to left hip soreness, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Perez hasn’t been placed on the injured list but he’s not in the lineup today.

Perhaps he’ll be unavailable for a few days, which would explain why Maile is now up with the club. The 34-year-old veteran signed a minor league deal with the Royals in the offseason. He opted out when he didn’t make the Opening Day roster but returned on a fresh deal shortly thereafter.

He is out to a strong start in Triple-A, hitting .286/.434/.381, though a .379 batting average on balls in play is helping him out somewhat in a small sample. For his big league career, he’s generally been a glove-first guy. He has a .208/.274/.319 batting line in 1,250 plate appearances but comes with a strong reputation for his throwing, blocking and work with a pitching staff. He should back up Fermin while Perez gets a breather.

As for Marsh, it’s not surprising to see him hit the 60-day IL. He has been battling shoulder soreness since the offseason and has spent the entire season on the 15-day IL so far. As of about a week ago, he was slated to restart his throwing program after a setback. The 60-day clock is retroactive to the start of the season, so he is eligible for reinstatement later this month. But given his current status, he’ll need far longer than that to get in game shape.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Royals Notes: Caglianone, Ragans, Marsh

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Royals top prospect Jac Caglianone is playing right field for Double-A Northwest Arkansas tonight. It’s the first career outfield work for the lefty power hitter, who had played exclusively first base since being drafted with the #6 overall pick last summer. Caglianone had been a two-way star at the University of Florida, but his only defensive work for the Gators also came at first.

It’s an interesting development considering the Royals have (yet again) gotten very little production from their outfield. Kansas City outfielders were hitting .191/.252/.280 going into play on Thursday. They’re second from the bottom in MLB in all three slash stats — ahead of the White Sox in batting average and slugging, while leading the Braves in on-base percentage. They’re tied for the major league low with four home runs.

That’s not a new problem. MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about the Royals’ longstanding outfield woes in a post for Front Office subscribers last May. In the nearly full calendar year since then, their outfield has hit .225/.282/.364 in more than 1700 plate appearances. GM JJ Picollo acknowledged in February the front office was disappointed they were unable to land a significant upgrade during the offseason.

The Royals ran an Opening Day outfield of MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel and Hunter Renfroe for the second straight season. They shook things up by optioning Melendez last week. Drew Waters has drawn into the lineup instead. He’s playing well in a tiny sample, but he’s a career .233/.307/.400 hitter who has fanned in a third of his big league plate appearances. Renfroe has followed last year’s .229/.297/.392 showing with a dismal .164/.258/.200 slash through 62 trips to the dish.

Caglianone topped 30 home runs in each of his final two seasons at Florida. He struggled over 29 High-A games after the draft, but he’s out to a much stronger start this season. He owns a .300/.374/.529 line with four homers and doubles apiece at Double-A. If he’s not quite on the radar for a major league call yet, a midseason promotion isn’t far-fetched. College hitters selected in the upper half of the first round often reach the big leagues during their first full professional season. Two such players, Cam Smith and Nick Kurtz, are already in the majors.

The path would be a lot cleaner if Caglianone can play a passable right field. Vinnie Pasquantino is the everyday first baseman. While they don’t have a set DH, Salvador Perez sees a good amount of time there to keep him in the lineup when he’s not catching. Caglianone could run his fastball into the upper 90s as a pitcher, so he certainly has the arm strength. The far bigger question is whether he’s mobile enough to play anywhere other than first. He’s listed at 6’5″, 250 pounds and unsurprisingly grades as a below-average runner on scouting reports. It appears the Royals will at least gauge his outfield ability in the minors.

In more immediate news, the team is awaiting word on Cole Ragans. The star left-hander came out of this afternoon’s start after three innings, during which he allowed four runs to Colorado. Anne Rogers of MLB.com writes that Ragans was hampered by left groin tightness and will go for further testing tomorrow.

The Royals have used a rotation comprising Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic and Michael Lorenzen all year. Kyle Wright and Alec Marsh could have pushed Lorenzen for the fifth starter spot, but they each opened the season on the injured list. Marsh has battled shoulder soreness dating back to the offseason. He was shut back down a few weeks ago after suffering renewed discomfort, but skipper Matt Quatraro told reporters that he’ll restart a throwing program tomorrow (link via The Associated Press).

Royals Notes: Rotation, Cameron, Bowlan, Mitchell

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Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and the re-signed Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen project as the Royals’ top four starters, setting up a competition for the fifth spot between such pitchers as Kris Bubic, Alec Marsh, Kyle Wright, and Daniel Lynch IV.  However, MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes that left-handed prospect Noah Cameron might also be on the radar as at least a depth arm, since Marsh (shoulder soreness) and Wright (hamstring strain) are both dealing with injuries.

Marsh’s right shoulder first began to bother him during his offseason ramp-up process, leaving the Royals taking a cautious approach to Marsh’s workload in spring camp.  Marsh did throw his first bullpen session of the spring on Friday, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be fully ready to go by Opening Day, given the slowed throwing progression.

In Wright’s case, his hamstring strain is thought to be mild in nature, though he’ll be delayed around a week in recovery.  It makes for a frustrating late development near what seemed to be the end of a much longer rehab process for Wright, who hasn’t pitched since September 2023 due to shoulder surgery.  Those shoulder problems also limited him to 31 innings during the 2023 season, so it has more or less been a two-year odyssey for Wright to return to form as a regular starting pitcher.

Bubic is now probably in the driver’s seat for the fifth starter’s job, yet he is being built back to a starters’ workload himself after a Tommy John surgery cost him most of the last two seasons.  Bubic was able to return to action last July and pitched well in a relief role, with a 2.67 ERA over 30 1/3 innings out of the K.C. bullpen.

All this uncertainty could open the door to a youngster like Cameron.  Rogers writes that the Royals have “reassured Cameron that he’ll be helping out in Kansas City at some point in 2025,” which would mark the 25-year-old’s MLB debut.  The club already showed some faith in Cameron by adding him to the 40-man roster last November, in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.

Cameron was a seventh-round pick for the Royals in the 2021 draft, and he made a great accounting for himself with a 2.32 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, and 6.7% walk rate over 54 1/3 innings with Triple-A Omaha last season.  Baseball America ranks Cameron as the eighth-best prospect in the Kansas City farm system, describing him as “a finesse lefthander” with an interesting four-pitch arsenal, highlighted by a 60-grade changeup.  Cameron’s fastball touched the 96mph threshold last season but he generally throws the pitch in the early 90s, still getting good results due to “the deceptive life on the pitch and its good vertical carry.”

The Royals also signed veteran swingman Ross Stripling to a minors deal last week, adding to the list of rotation candidates.  One name not mentioned as part of the competition is Jonathan Bowlan, since Rogers says the Royals see the right-hander as a relief pitcher heading into 2025.  Using Bowlan as a reliever could allow K.C. to take better advantage of his one remaining minor league option year, plus Rogers writes that Bowlan’s stuff “probably ticks up in short stints.”

Bowlan has worked as a starter for most of his minor league career, but he came out of the bullpen in 19 of his 35 appearances in Omaha last season.  The splits were telling, as Bowlan had a 2.77 ERA in 26 relief innings and a 5.58 ERA across 80 2/3 innings as a starter, as well as a much lower walk rate as a reliever.

Since Bowlan’s walk rate had started to tick upward over his last couple of minor league seasons, this improved control is a particularly interesting sign.  Working as a reliever might also help Bowlan get more of a foothold in the big leagues, as his MLB resume consists of three appearances and 5 2/3 innings over the last two seasons, with Bowlan posting a 7.94 ERA in that small sample size.

In other Royals prospect news, one of Kansas City’s top minor leaguers hit a significant setback, as Blake Mitchell will undergo surgery to fix a fractured right hamate bone.  (Manager Matt Quatraro revealed the news to Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star and other reporters.)  Mitchell will need 4-6 weeks of recovery time, meaning Mitchell will miss the rest of spring camp, and will need to participate in extended Spring Training to make up for the lost prep time.  Hamate injuries aren’t usually too serious, yet it will cut into some important development time for the 20-year-old backstop.

Mitchell was the eighth overall pick of the 2023 draft, and was a fixture within the top-100 prospect lists this spring — ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked him highest as the 42nd-best prospect in the sport.  Mitchell is already considered a solid defensive catcher, and he hit .232/.368/.424 with 18 home runs over 486 plate appearances last season, almost all of which came at A-level Columbia.  Pundits are mixed on Mitchell’s future as a hitter, but he has solid power potential and some unusual strength on the basepaths for a catcher.  Despite a lack of speed, Mitchell still stole 26 bags in 33 attempts last year.

Royals’ James McArthur Recovering From Elbow Surgery

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Royals right-hander James McArthur underwent surgery to repair a fractured olecranon in his right elbow and is behind schedule this spring, per Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star. McArthur, who had two screws installed in his pitching elbow, is just now beginning to throw. It’s not clear exactly when McArthur had the procedure, but he ended the 2024 season on the shelf with an elbow issue. The fact that he’s even cleared for light throwing at this stage indicates the procedure took place a fair bit ago.

The 28-year-old McArthur looked like a breakout candidate late in the 2023 season. Acquired in a minor trade after being designated for assignment in Philadelphia, McArthur erupted as one of the most dominant relievers in the sport in September of 2023. An out-of-nowhere but eye-popping run of 16 1/3 shutout innings with just five hits allowed, no walks and 19 punchouts thrust McArthur into the Royals’ late-inning mix and positioned him as the team’s closer early in 2024. That brilliant finish coincided with some changes to his pitch selection; after being optioned to Triple-A in mid-August, McArthur returned in September throwing far fewer sinkers but far more sliders and curveballs.

McArthur had a rough start in 2024, yielding four runs in his first three innings before finding his groove. He pitched to a 3.35 ERA from that point through the remainder of the first half and carried an overall 3.99 earned run average into the All-Star break. His strikeout rate wasn’t close to the prior year, but McArthur was boasting elite command and a massive 57% grounder rate. He looked very much like a nice diamond-in-the-rough find by the Kansas City front office.

Perhaps that’ll still prove to be the case long term, but McArthur stumbled immediately out of the gate in the second half, serving up nine runs (eight earned) in his first three appearances. The rest of his season proved to be a struggle. McArthur pitched to a 6.87 ERA in his final 18 1/3 innings. His walk rate spiked from 4.4% in the first half to 8% in the second half. After averaging 95 mph on his sinker through the break, McArthur’s velocity began to fade. He only topped a 95 mph average on that sinker in one of his final eight appearances. His grounder rate dipped from 57% to 50%, and he didn’t pitch again after Sept. 16.

The season-ending IL placement and subsequent offseason surgery rather emphatically prove that McArthur was pitching at less than 100% down the stretch. The hope for the Royals, clearly, will be that McArthur’s late downturn was a symptom of his elbow troubles. From the point of that repertoire change in late ’23 through the All-Star break in ’24, McArthur totaled 54 2/3 innings with a 2.80 ERA, 23% strikeout rate, 3.3% walk rate and 54.9% grounder rate. If he can come even close to those levels again, he’ll be a vital part of the Royals’ late-inning attack not only in 2025 but for several years to come. McArthur is under club control through 2029 and won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2025-26 offseason, when he’ll be a Super Two player.

For now, the Royals’ bullpen will be headlined by free agent signing Carlos Estevez and 2024 deadline acquisitions Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey. That’s a formidable high-leverage trio in its own right, and the September-through-July version of McArthur would only further strengthen the group for second-year skipper Matt Quatraro.

Also worth noting, per Thompson, is that righty Alec Marsh is a bit behind schedule after battling some shoulder tightness during his offseason program. He’s seemingly past that issue now, as he’s progressed into a throwing program, but he’s not quite where he would be with a normal offseason. Health permitting, Marsh would be a part of a competition for the fifth rotation spot behind Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen. Marsh, Kris Bubic and Kyle Wright are presumably all in that mix. Bubic arguably should’ve been considered the favorite even before this news, but Marsh’s delay in facing hitters (while Wright hasn’t pitched since 2023 due to shoulder surgery) only strengthen Bubic’s case.

Royals Have Shown Interest In Alec Bohm, Taylor Ward

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The Royals have reportedly spoken to the Reds about a trade involving Kansas City right-hander Brady Singer and Cincinnati infielder Jonathan India, but that’s just one of multiple pursuits for Royals general manager J.J. Picollo, it seems. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that while no deals are necessarily close as of this moment, the Royals have also spoken to the Phillies about third baseman Alec Bohm and to the Angels about outfielder Taylor Ward. Like India, both Bohm and Ward are right-handed bats with multiple seasons of club control remaining.

Bohm, 28, was the No. 3 overall pick back in 2018 and has settled in as a regular at third base in Philadelphia over the past four-plus seasons. He’s coming off an uneven 2024 season in which he was one of the game’s most productive hitters in April but followed it with five months of effectively league-average production. On the whole, he turned in a .280/.332/.448 batting line (115 wRC+). Over the past three seasons, Bohm has combined for a .278/.325/.427 slash, demolishing left-handed pitching along the way but producing at a roughly average clip against fellow righties.

Given his excellent bat-to-ball skills — 14.2% strikeout rate in 2024; 15.7% dating back to 2022 — Bohm is a sensible target for a Royals club that places a heavy emphasis on putting the ball in play. Kansas City had baseball’s third-lowest strikeout rate in 2024, and since 2021 only five teams have posted a lower collective strikeout rate than the Royals. Plugging Bohm in as a regular at third base would provide an offensive upgrade over slick-fielding Maikel Garcia, who’s arguably better suited as a utilityman, given his defensive chops.

Speaking of glovework, however, Bohm is something of a mixed bag on that front. The Royals have typically prioritized plus defenders in addition to their affinity for contact-oriented bats. Bohm has typically graded out as a poor defender at the hot corner, but he posted career-best marks in Defensive Runs Saved (0) and Outs Above Average (4) in 2024. If the Royals believe those gains can be sustained, he’d make all the more sense as a trade target.

Bohm is controlled for another two seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.1MM in his penultimate year of arbitration eligibility in 2025. It’s a generally reasonable rate that shouldn’t be cumbersome, even for a mid-level payroll club like Kansas City. While the Royals have in-house options at third base (Garcia) and at second base (Michael Massey), their interest in India and Bohm suggests a desire to add at least one bat to that infield mix. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and, of course, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. aren’t going to be displaced, leaving second base or third base as the likely positions to be upgraded.

For the Phillies, trading Bohm wouldn’t be so much about shedding salary or moving on from an unproductive player as it would reimagining an offense that hasn’t gotten them over the hump in recent postseason trips. Bohm has hit well with men on base in recent seasons (hence consecutive 97 RBI campaigns) but offers average power and stark platoon splits. The Phillies, meanwhile, don’t have ample pathways to pursuing upgrades in the lineup. First base (Bryce Harper), shortstop (Trea Turner), designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber), catcher (J.T. Realmuto) and right field (Nick Castellanos) are all manned by expensive veterans. Third base (Bohm), second base (Bryson Stott) and the other two outfield spots (combination of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Austin Hays) are the primary areas where president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski can look to bring about some form of change.

As for Ward, he’s an on-paper trade candidate for an Angels club that just finished dead last in the American League West. However, owner Arte Moreno and GM Perry Minasian have both expressed a desire to put forth a competitive club next winter. Ward, coming off a .246/.323/.426 (111 wRC+) showing in 2024 and a .259/.338/.440 line (118 wRC+) since 2021, is seemingly a part of that vision. Few outsiders see a path to contention for the ’25 Angels, but the team’s actions thus far — trading for Jorge Soler and signing Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks and Kevin Newman — suggest that they’re more focused on adding than on subtracting.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored last month, there’s a scenario where the Angels move Ward and still make an effort to compete. Ward could be flipped for rotation help — a potential match with the Royals — or traded for younger talent, with the Angels reallocating his would-be salary to other areas of need. Swartz projects Ward for a $9.2MM salary in 2025, which isn’t unreasonable for a player of his ability but also isn’t a raucous bargain. The Royals could plug Ward into left field, providing a stark upgrade over MJ Melendez, and pair him with defensive standout Kyle Isbel in center and rebound hopeful Hunter Renfroe in right field.

There’s no telling just yet how it’ll all shake out, but it seems Kansas City is quite active on the trade front at the moment. In addition to the bats they’ve targeted, the Royals have received interest from other clubs in each of the aforementioned Garcia, Singer, right-hander Alec Marsh and left-hander Kris Bubic. Picollo and his staff seemingly have plenty of potential concepts to explore, with the end goal of bolstering a currently top-heavy lineup a fairly obvious priority.

Royals Could Listen On Kris Bubic, Alec Marsh In Search For Offense

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The Royals already knocked out one key bit of offseason business, re-signing Michael Wacha to a $51MM deal just before the veteran starter could discuss contracts with other teams. It seems they’ll now turn their attention to deepening a top-heavy lineup.

Will Sammon and Katie Woo of the Athletic write that the Royals are looking for ways to improve their on-base skills, particularly out of the leadoff spot. To that end, Sammon and Woo report that Kansas City may entertain trade offers on Kris Bubic or Alec Marsh if they can net lineup help.

The Kansas City offense was almost entirely dependent on Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez this year. They were the only Royals players to reach 20 homers. Of the nine K.C. hitters with 300+ plate appearances, four had better than average seasons by measure of wRC+. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and second baseman Michael Massey only narrowly checked in above average, hitting for power but with middling on-base marks.

Finding a reliable table-setter in front of Witt and Perez was a huge challenge. Kansas City gave Maikel Garcia the majority of the playing time atop the lineup. Garcia stole 27 bases but provided very little at the plate. Royals leadoff men had a putrid .228/.270/.334 batting line overall. No team had a lower OBP out of the top spot, while only the White Sox got less slugging output. That left Witt to take a lot of at-bats with the bases empty. K.C.’s franchise shortstop ranked eighth in MLB in plate appearances with no one on base. The seven players ahead of him were all primarily leadoff hitters (thereby guaranteed to take at least one at-bat with the bases empty every game).

While a free agent pursuit of someone like Jurickson Profar or Gleyber Torres would address the leadoff spot, the Royals could do so more affordably by dealing from their pitching depth. Kansas City has an excellent front four in their rotation. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo project as an elite 1-2 tandem. Wacha is back to resume his role as a quality third starter, while righty Brady Singer is a mid-rotation arm in his own right. The fifth spot is a little less established.

Marsh held that role for the bulk of the ’24 season. The Arizona State product started 25 times and tossed 129 innings of 4.53 ERA ball. He struck out 22.4% of opponents against a solid 7.1% walk rate. While it wasn’t a dominant showing, Marsh had serviceable numbers for a fifth starter. The Royals nudged him out of the rotation when they acquired Michael Lorenzen at the deadline. With Lorenzen returning to free agency, Marsh could be the in-house favorite for that job again.

He’ll have competition from former Brave Kyle Wright. Kansas City acquired the right-hander last offseason, weeks after Atlanta announced that the former fifth overall pick underwent shoulder surgery. The Royals stashed him on the injured list all year with an eye towards a 2025 return. While it’s difficult to bank on a pitcher who has missed the majority of the last two seasons to injury, Wright posted a 3.19 ERA over 30 starts in 2022. The Royals are surely interested to see how his stuff looks in Spring Training. That could increase their willingness to deal Marsh.

Bubic could be in the mix for the fifth starter role as well, but he spent this past season in the bullpen. The Stanford product underwent Tommy John surgery in April ’23. He was sidelined into the beginning of July this year. The Royals used him in relief when he returned. That helped an underperforming bullpen while limiting his workload in his first season back.

The move was a success. Bubic posted excellent numbers over 30 1/3 innings, turning in a 2.67 earned run average while punching out more than 32% of opponents. He got swinging strikes at a huge 14.8% clip while averaging a personal-high 93 MPH on his fastball in short stints. That’s much better than the 4.99 ERA he owns across 60 career starts, although he flashed better velocity and swing-and-miss acumen in a small sample in ’23 before going under the knife.

Kansas City’s bullpen remains a weak point. The Royals could prefer to keep Bubic as a potential leverage piece. There’d be plenty of teams interested in plugging him into their bullpens, while there are presumably clubs that still view him as a rotation target.

Bubic is under arbitration control for two more seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $2.8MM salary. Marsh doesn’t have the same upside but comes with a much longer contractual window. He just surpassed one year of service and is controllable through 2029. He won’t get to arbitration for another two seasons and should have appeal for teams seeking an affordable fifth or sixth starter.

Royals Notes: Lorenzen, Marsh, Harvey, McArthur

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Michael Lorenzen will return from the 15-day injured list tomorrow. The Royals list him as the probable starter for the second game of their series in Washington. Kansas City will need to make a corresponding active roster move.

It’s a crucial start as K.C. fights for a playoff spot. The Royals squeaked out a 1-0 win in extra innings over the Nationals tonight. That kept them in front of the Tigers for the AL’s second Wild Card spot via the tiebreaker. They’re two games up on the Twins and 2.5 clear of the Mariners in the race.

Lorenzen has been down for more than a month because of a left hamstring strain. Acquired from the Rangers at the deadline, the righty had a sparkling 1.85 earned run average in 24 1/3 innings over his first five starts. That excellent run prevention was in spite of mediocre strikeout (17%) and walk (10%) rates. Lorenzen’s results have generally outpaced his peripherals for consecutive seasons. He carries a 3.43 ERA over 126 frames between Texas and K.C. this year.

Alec Marsh stepped back into the rotation while Lorenzen was on the shelf. He pitched fairly well, turning in a 4.50 ERA while striking out more than 32% of opponents over four starts. Marsh is moving into the bullpen to open a rotation spot, tweets Jaylon Thompson of the K.C. Star. The 26-year-old righty has turned in a 4.65 ERA with a solid 23% strikeout rate over 25 appearances (24 starts) on the year. He had an excellent start to the season before a terrible July led the Royals to option him to Triple-A for the three weeks preceding Lorenzen’s injury.

While Lorenzen’s return is a boost to the pitching staff, skipper Matt Quatraro provided disheartening updates on a pair of relievers this afternoon. The Royals have officially ruled out Hunter Harvey and James McArthur for the season, Quatraro said (X link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). Harvey has been out since the middle of August with a back injury, while the Royals lost McArthur to an elbow sprain last week.

Quatraro said the Royals were sending Harvey for a second opinion, which at least raises the question of whether he’ll need surgery. Injuries have been a recurring problem for the 29-year-old righty. Harvey underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect and has had extended absences during his MLB career for forearm, lat and elbow injuries.

Harvey can be a high-leverage reliever at his best, as he showed with the Nationals between 2023-24. He fired 60 2/3 innings of 2.82 ERA ball last season. This season’s 4.20 mark across 45 frames wasn’t as impressive, but Harvey punched out more than 26% of opponents behind a 13.4% swinging strike rate. The Royals viewed him as a late-game weapon and sent third base prospect Cayden Wallace plus the 39th pick in this summer’s draft to acquire him. They’ve gotten essentially nothing out of that deal, as Harvey allowed four runs over 5 2/3 innings before going on the shelf.

Kansas City controls Harvey for one more year via arbitration. The Royals would tender him a contract if they expect him to be back early in 2025, but a long-term injury could obviously change the calculus. He’d be due a small raise on this year’s $2.325MM sum.

McArthur operated as Kansas City’s closer for a time. He picked up 18 saves but also blew seven leads. McArthur’s heavy reliance on ground-balls without many whiffs plays better in the middle innings than it does in the ninth. His year concludes with a 4.92 ERA through 56 2/3 frames. The Royals are using deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg as their closer while turning high-leverage innings to converted starter Kris Bubic and left-hander Sam Long.

Royals Notes: Marsh, Lynch, Selby, Hernandez

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The Royals have been without right-hander Alec Marsh for just over a week now, but manager Matt Quatraro told reporters yesterday (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that even though Marsh is expected to throw just 60-65 pitches in a rehab start today, the team is hopeful he’ll be able to return to the big league rotation after just one rehab appearance assuming today’s outing goes well.

That timeline would put Marsh, 26 later this month, in line for a minimum stay on the injured list and line him up to take the ball in Anaheim against the Angels on Friday. If the righty is able to return after a minimum stint, it would provide a huge boost to the Royals as they look to capitalize on a hot start that has seen them go 20-14 to this point in the season, putting them just 1.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

Prior to his placement on the shelf due to an elbow contusion late last month, Marsh had been a big part of the club’s success. Through five starts this season, the right-hander sports a sterling 2.70 ERA and a 3.26 FIP in spite of a lackluster 15.9% strikeout rate. While he’s posted a strong 6.5% walk rate to this point in the season, the youngster’s .235 BABIP allowed and minuscule 3.2% home run/fly ball ratio both suggest that regression could be on the way for him, as do his 4.66 xERA and 4.39 xFIP. Even in the event that Marsh’s results regress back to that of a mid-to-back of the rotation arm, however, it would still be a substantial improvement over his rookie campaign. Marsh struggled badly in 74 1/3 innings of work in the majors last year, posting a 5.69 ERA with a near-matching 5.70 FIP despite a 24.9% strikeout rate.

While Marsh prepares for his return to the big leagues, the Royals announced today that they’ve recalled left-hander Daniel Lynch IV, optioning right-hander Colin Selby to make room for Lynch on the active roster. Jaylon T. Thompson of the Kansas City Star relayed last night that Lynch was slated to start this afternoon’s game against the Rangers. Lynch, 27, was once a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport but has struggled at the big league level to this point in his career, with a 5.19 ERA and 4.79 FIP in 252 innings of work across 51 starts dating back to his debut during the 2021 season. Those numbers include nine starts at the big league level last year where he posted a 4.64 ERA and 5.17 FIP amid rotator cuff and shoulder issues.

Lynch returned to action during Spring Training but ultimately lost out on the fifth starter role in Kansas City to Marsh, leaving him relegated to the Triple-A level to open the season. He’s struggled badly through six starts at the level this season, posting a 5.86 ERA in 27 2/3 innings of work while striking out just 17.3% of batters faced. Nonetheless, the Royals will turn to him for today’s start, where he’ll take on the tough assignment of facing the reigning World Series champion Rangers.

Marsh isn’t the only pitcher who’s making progress in their attempt to return from the injured list. Per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, right-hander Carlos Hernandez is beginning to ramp up his activity during a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level after missing the start of the season due to a shoulder impingement. The Royals have mostly enjoyed steady production from their bullpen this season thanks to veteran additions such as John Schreiber, Tyler Duffy, and Nick Anderson, but righty Matt Sauer has struggled badly in a long relief role to this point in the season and the healthy return of Hernandez, who struck out 25.7% of batters faced last year en route to a solid 4.28 FIP, could offer Kansas City a more reliable option for length out of the bullpen.

Royals Place Alec Marsh On Injured List, Recall Will Klein For MLB Debut

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The Royals announced Thursday that righty Alec Marsh is headed to the 15-day injured list with a right elbow contusion. Right-handed reliever Will Klein has been recalled to take his spot on the roster and will be making his MLB debut the first time he gets into a game.

Marsh took a comeback liner from Blue Jays rookie Addison Barger off his arm in yesterday’s game and exited the contest (video link). X-rays came back negative, though Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweeted after last night’s game that Marsh had severe bruising and an imprint of the seams was visible on his arm where he’d been struck. He’ll sit down for a couple weeks to let that subside before stepping back into the rotation.

Selected with the 70th overall pick in 2019, Marsh won the Royals’ fifth starter job over veteran Jordan Lyles in spring training and has had a fine start to his season. He’s taken the ball five times and pitched 26 2/3 innings with a 2.70 earned run average. His 15.9% strikeout rate and 36.3% grounder rate are both well below average, but Marsh also touts a strong 6.5% walk rate on the season. He’s not likely to sustain this level of success without upping his whiffs and/or grounders, and he’ll surely wind up seeing more than three percent of his fly-balls leave the yard (which has been his HR/FB rate in 2024). Even with those red flags, he still looks like a viable fifth starter in a vastly improved Kansas City rotation.

The 24-year-old Klein was Kansas City’s final pick in the shortened, five-round 2020 draft. He came off the board with the No.  135 overall selection and has steadily risen through the minor league ranks since. Klein logged a 3.38 ERA and fanned a third of his opponents in Double-A last year before reaching Triple-A and limping to a 5.66 ERA with a bloated 14.4% walk rate in 35 innings down the stretch. He’s opened the 2024 campaign with 11 shutout frames in Triple-A Omaha, however. Klein’s command remains an issue, evidenced by a 13.6% walk rate, but he’s whiffed nearly 28% of his opponents this season and kept the ball on the ground at a solid 44% rate.

Klein entered the season ranked 18th among Royals prospects at both Baseball America and MLB.com. Both outlets credit him with a plus-plus heater (70-grade on the 20-80 scale) that sits in the upper 90s and frequently reaches triple digits. Klein also garners praise for a plus slider/cutter and above-average curveball but unsurprisingly draws below-average reviews for his command of that potent arsenal. He has late-inning potential if he can get to even average command, but he’s thus far walked 16% of his opponents in pro ball.

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