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Rosenthal’s Latest: Bonds, Nathan, Barrett

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Ken Rosenthal has a new rumor column up.  Feels like it’s been a while.

  • Rosenthal thinks it’s a sign of desperation that the Angels would entertain signing Barry Bonds, who doesn’t fit in with their club.  His OBP would fit in anywhere, but he would tie up the DH spot at the expense of Juan Rivera and Vladimir Guerrero.
  • The Cubs are expected to bring Daryle Ward back at $1.2MM (makes sense) and Steve Trachsel at $4.75MM (questionable).  Cubs fans can only hope Trachsel would be considered a tradeable asset, as Rosenthal opines.  Rosenthal also quashes the idea of trading Aramis Ramirez, both because of his full no-trade clause and the team’s impending sale. 
  • David Eckstein is expected to leave the Cardinals, no big surprise.  Rosenthal reiterates recent rumors connecting him to the White Sox, Tigers, and Mets.
  • Rosenthal’s idea for Bill Smith and the Twins: keep Johan Santana this winter, and instead trade the $6MM super-closer Joe Nathan.  Teams would line up for him, and Pat Neshek wouldn’t be a bad replacement.
  • Do you think Michael Barrett could be a free agent bargain?  Rosenthal talked to one exec who feels this way, and it is a good point if he can bounce back to .280/.350/.480 for five million bucks.

Odds and Ends: Aramis, La Russa, A-Rod

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A random smattering of links this morning…

  • I wrote a postmortem on why the D’Backs beat the Cubs over at The Hardball Times.
  • Just a whisper at the moment, but I’m hearing that the Angels could pursue Aramis Ramirez if the Cubs make him available.  They were in hard on him last year when he was briefly a free agent.
  • Seems that Joe Torre is done as Yankees manager, but Tony La Russa is not interested.
  • Another important date to mark down: November 10th.  That’s when Alex Rodriguez decides whether to opt out of his contract.  Right after the GM meetings.
  • The Tigers will stick with Brandon Inge at third base next year, perhaps feeling that his defense justified his .236/.312/.376 line.  There is hope for a rebound, since he slugged .463 the previous year.  Plus Inge is locked in for $6.2MM in ’08, $6.3MM in ’09, and $6.6MM in ’10.
  • The Mariners had a $2.7MM option on Chris Reitsma with a $0.7MM buyout and apparently some kind of option on Arthur Rhodes.  Both were declined.  Reitsma, coming off ulnar nerve transposition surgery in ’06, was supposed to be Seattle’s setup man.  He tried to pitch this year but the elbow wasn’t fully healed.  Rhodes had similar problems in ’06 and went under the knife for TJ in April.
  • You may have noticed some of the in-post ads are showing as ugly blank white space or "This page cannot be found" errors…please bear with me as I try to get it back to normal. 

Crazy Cubs Speculation

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My apologies in advance for those who think this site is a little too Cubs-centric.  The Needs and Luxuries post was my fault, but it’s only natural for all of the local writers to speculate on ways to improve the club for 2008.

I know some of the Cubs fans who frequent MLBTR take some abuse for off-the-wall speculation.  Jacque Jones for someone of value, for example.  But honestly, the published newspaper speculation isn’t any better.

  • Barry Rozner takes his knee-jerk shots at Aramis Ramirez, who was awful in the three-game set against Arizona.  According to Rozner, A-Rod is a "better guy, better fielder, and better hitter."  That’s why the newly signed Ramirez should be dealt to make room for him.
  • Jeff Vorva wants to sign A-Rod for shortstop, move Theriot to second base, move Mark DeRosa to right field, and sign Torii Hunter for center field.  That’s message-board type stuff.  And I say again, Theriot’s not a starter.
  • Paul Sullivan wants to trade Jason Marquis.  Sure, that would be nice.  But come on – the Cubs got exactly what everyone expected in Marquis’ first year, maybe even a little better.  If Marquis is over 5.00 for the next two years, that should come as no surprise.  Sullivan would also like to sign Aaron Rowand off a career year, blocking the Cubs’ best prospect for around $55-60MM.
  • Gordon Wittenmyer wants Ryan Theriot leading off, though he was one of the few regular Cubs with an OBP worse than Soriano.  Wittenmyer expects the Cubs to cut Mark Prior loose rather than gamble $3MM on him.         
  • Phil Rogers notes Kerry Wood’s resurgence as a reliever.  If the Cubs want to keep him, it’ll cost more than a million or two this time.

Needs and Luxuries: Chicago Cubs

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Next up in the series, the Cubs.  You can view all of the Needs and Luxuries posts here.  A note about this series: I’m choosing teams randomly, and only those not currently alive in the playoffs.

C – Geovany Soto
1B – Derrek Lee
2B – Mark DeRosa
SS – Ryan Theriot/Ronny Cedeno
3B – Aramis Ramirez
LF – Alfonso Soriano
CF – Felix Pie
RF – Jacque Jones/Matt Murton

SP – Carlos Zambrano
SP – Ted Lilly
SP – Rich Hill
SP – Jason Marquis
SP – Sean Marshall/Mark Prior

Setup: Carlos Marmol/Bob Howry
Closer: Ryan Dempster

Needs

The Cubs ranked 9th in the NL in OBP (.333) and 8th in SLG (.422).  As you would expect, that made for a middle of the pack offense. With most positions locked in, how can the Cubs fill the need for more offense?

One place to start is catcher, where a group of six guys posted an aggregate .239/.304/.369 line this year.  While it was his third season at Triple A, Soto hit a massive .353/.424/.652 in 110 games.  Some of that has to translate.

Another deficiency is shortstop, where fan favorite Ryan Theriot hit .266/.326/.346 in 537 ABs.  Let’s face it: the guy is a backup.  The free agent market for shortstops stinks.  That leaves Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada, and Alex Rodriguez as three possibly available players who would add 5+ wins for the Cubs.  Renteria would be a fine addition.  I imagine John Schuerholz would want more than Sean Marshall, but Rich Hill seems too much.  Perhaps the MacPhail connection in Baltimore will re-open the Tejada discussions this winter.

My solution: another try with Ronny Cedeno.  He’s now amassed about a full season’s worth of time at Triple A with an OPS well above .900.  ’06 was a learning experience for him, but he’s simply a better player than Theriot or any of the free agents.       

More offensive gain might come by moving Soriano down in the order and putting DeRosa or Murton in the leadoff spot.

It would be fair to suggest the Cubs need to remove Dempster from ninth inning duties.  Between Wood (likely to return), Marmol, Howry, and Wuertz, I think it’s an internal change.  Dempster could join the rotation or become trade bait.  Francisco Cordero is intriguing if new ownership has money to throw around.

Luxuries

The outfield situation can be sorted out without external additions.  Felix Pie is fresh off a .362/.410/.563 line in Triple A as a 22 year-old, and is a breakout candidate for ’08.  If he starts to get it, you shop Jones.  Otherwise, Jones and Murton work for me.

The rotation is pretty well set.  The front four combined for 133 starts, leaving one slot to play around with.  Marshall seems like one of the best fifth starters in the league (he could swap "slots" with Marquis next year).  For ’08 I would run with this group, while also tendering a contract to Mark Prior to add depth.  The Cubs can’t have him become their Chris Carpenter (as in, Toronto’s gaffe).

If the Cubs aren’t worried about Marquis’ post-ASB ERA of 5.73, perhaps they shop Marshall.  But as with most teams, it’s a stretch to call starting pitching a luxury.  I’d hold onto Sean Gallagher as well.  It’d be surprising to see the front four make 130 starts again next year.

Besides the aforementioned Dempster, I can see the Cubs shopping Eric Patterson.  There’s already a bad vibe as the Cubs sent him back to Iowa quickly after his September call-up as punishment for tardiness.  Patterson is a talented second baseman with some statistical similarities to Julio Lugo.  He could be part of a Tejada or Renteria deal, or perhaps used to add more starting pitching depth.

I realize my plan has unproven youngsters at three key up-the-middle positions.  So what?  I’ll take talent over experience any day.  It could make for a quiet offseason, though.

Cubs a Good Fit for Barry’s Bat

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Tim mentioned in this post that fielding know-it-all John Dewan thinks Barry Bonds can still play a tolerable outfield.  Well, Bob Nightengale has broken the rumor-ice and brought two NL teams into the "Where Will Bonds Play Next" game:

Chicago and Florida.

The Cubbies, heavy in right handed hitters, would love a bat like Bonds’ in the lineup.  They probably have the money, though they’ll add $10MM in payroll for ’08 just to maintain the current group. With Bonds’ regular need for time off, there’d still be plenty of playing time for Matt Murton.

Bonds, meanwhile, just may be the apple of Jeffrey Loria’s eye.  The Florida Marlins owner was fined by the commissioners office last year for flying Bonds to New York in his personal jet.  But if the Fish deal Dontrelle Willis in the offseason, it’d be hard to convince Bonds that they’re a serious contender.

A-Rod, Partial Cubs Owner?

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UPDATE: Boras debunked the report.  Well, it was fun to discuss for a few hours.

Deadspin’s Will Leitch has an article in New York Magazine dissecting the Alex Rodriguez opt-out situation.  Leitch, through a source, has a new piece of info for us sure to generate some discussion.  He lists the Red Sox and Cubs as the teams most likely to lure A-Rod away from the Yankees, and lays out a unique Cub contract possibility:

Scott Boras knows which [ownership] group is most likely to be awarded the Cubs. The source says Boras has already been in touch with that group about the possibility of a contract that could reach $30 million a year over the next ten years while deferring a certain portion of money toward an eventual stake in the franchise.

David K. Li’s source feels that this might constitute tampering.  The group Leitch is likely referring to is the one headed by John Canning, who is currently a part-owner of the Brewers.

Pretty wild stuff.  Cubs fans can salivate over a lineup featuring Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and A-Rod.  Keep all of those guys healthy the next few years and they could have the league’s best offense.  Still, ten year contracts are pretty rare and quite risky.  It’s tough to project a player more than a few years out, but it’s going to take at least eight years to sign Rodriguez.

The Cubs have roughly $110MM on the books for 2008 (more on that in a separate post).  They entered the ’07 season with a payroll right around $100MM.  Even in a backloaded deal I’d imagine A-Rod would earn $20MM+ in his first year.  So if the Cubs want to go past the $130MM mark, they could have Rodriguez.  That’d put the Cubs third in payroll behind only the Yankees and Red Sox.

Cubs Acquire Steve Trachsel

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The prodigal son returns – Chicago radio stations are reporting that the Cubs have acquired starter Steve Trachsel for third baseman Scott Moore and reliever Rocky Cherry.  Apparently the two minor leaguers were able to slip through waivers, or perhaps Baltimore won claims on them.

The obvious question – where does Trax fit into the Cubs’ rotation?  It’s hard to picture him outpitching Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Jason Marquis, or Sean Marshall.  Zambrano, Lilly, and Marquis are locks given their contracts, and Hill has the best ERA on the staff. 

Marshall doesn’t seem to be ailing; his last three starts have been respectable.  He tossed 147.3 innings last year and is on pace for about 157 this year.  That’s a reasonable increase, so limiting his innings doesn’t seem a reasonable reason to yank him.  Maybe we’re looking at a six-man rotation?

For a minute I thought maybe this was a block waiver claim, but then I remembered Trachsel cleared waivers.  The Cubs must consider him an upgrade over Marshall.  Marshall did have two rough outings to start the month; maybe that swayed Jim Hendry’s thinking.  Or maybe he just wanted some insurance and someone to use in the upcoming doubleheader.

Cubs Acquire Craig Monroe

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Today, the Cubs acquired outfielder Craig Monroe and cash considerations for a player to be named later.  Monroe has approximately $1.06MM left on his contract for 2007.

The 30 year-old outfielder enjoyed a career season in ’06, smacking 28 homers and knocking in 92.  As a right-handed hitter he’s typically better off facing southpaws.  It’d be nice to platoon him with Jacque Jones if he can handle center field.  Monroe played eight games there last year and 33 the year before.  More likely, he’ll be employed in right field once Alfonso Soriano returns.  Jake Fox seems to be the odd man out for the Cubs.

The Cubs are hoping the change of scenery will coincide with a decent offensive rebound, similar to their Jason Kendall acquisition.  Over in the AL, Monroe had been equally awful as Kendall (.222/.264/.373).  Monroe isn’t set to reach free agency until after the ’08 season, though the Cubs could nontender him rather than pay the $5MM or so he’d get in arbitration. 

Side note – I was surprised to see Jayson Stark write today that "it would be a shock" if the Cubs don’t nontender Mark Prior this winter.  Given the price and dearth of starting pitching, why not cough up the $3.5MM to see how Prior looks post-surgery?

Cubs Sign Carlos Zambrano To Extension

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According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs have inked Carlos Zambrano to a five-year, $91.5MM contract extension.  The deal also has a $19.25MM player option for a sixth year, so you might as well call it 6/111. 

By waiting, the Cubs cost themselves at least $11.5MM.  It’s unclear as to whether the original 5/80 deal Zambrano almost signed had a player option.  The new contract carries Zambrano through his age 31 season.

This is a home team discount, but $18.3MM annually guaranteed is still pretty hefty.  The discount is that the Cubs are on the hook for five or six years instead of seven or eight.  And sure, Z probably could’ve gotten $20MM on the open market.  The deal would look a lot better for the Cubs if the 2013 option was the club’s.  As a player option, Zambrano will basically only exercise it if he’s in bad shape.

I’ve been back and forth on my opinion of a huge Zambrano extension, kind of like the pitcher’s up and down season.  Part of me says that the Cubs got a slight discount, Zambrano’s been an injury-free horse, and he’ll still be pretty young throughout the deal.  The other side of me says that his best years are behind him, he’s got a ton of mileage on his arm, and almost no free agent pitcher deal of this magnitude could possibly work out.  I think you could make a legitimate case for either side – sorry for the cop out.   

The free agent pitcher market is significantly worse for Zambrano’s absence.  The best option now appears to be Curt Schilling on a short-term deal, if you can get him.

Graziano’s Latest: Andruw, Dunn, Fukudome

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Dan Graziano has a new article up regarding the free agent outfielder crop.  He spoke to two anonymous GMs.  Let’s take a look at some highlights.

  • Andruw Jones has an awful .216/.312/.418 line this year.  He’s been outdone by Shawn Green, Sammy Sosa, Jose Vidro, and Shannon Stewart in terms of OPS.  Nonetheless, Jones isn’t expected to come at a discount.  Scott Boras will just play up the defense, the RBIs, the career totals, whatever. 
  • Graziano says "it’s hard to see" the Reds picking up Adam Dunn’s $13MM option.  This would just be plain dumb on Wayne Krivsky’s part.  Given the $0.5MM buyout, it’s basically like signing Dunn to a one-year, $12.5MM deal.  How many teams would pass on a huge power bat on a no-risk one-year commitment?  If the Reds don’t exercise the option, it will be change for change’s sake.  And a bad decision.
  • Kosuke Fukudome is the dark horse, a possible impact right fielder from Japan.  He will not require a posting fee.  Graziano says the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, and White Sox are among the teams scouting him.  More on Fukudome in a separate post.
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