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Cubs Done With Prior?

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Three newspapers, one message: Mark Prior’s future with the Cubs is in doubt.  You can ask Paul Sullivan, Gordon Wittenmyer, or Bruce Miles.

Prior recently had shoulder surgery with Dr. James Andrews, and he’ll accrue no Major League service time this year.  You have to wonder if the Cubs sending Prior to Triple A initially was done with this in mind.  Now, Prior won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2009 season.

Should the Cubs cut ties with Prior and non-tender him this winter, or should they invest just a few million more to see if he can rise up out of the ashes and pitch like a fifth starter?  As Wittenmyer writes, they’d have to pay him at least $2.86MM in ’08.  Sullivan speculates that his salary would be close to what it is now, maybe $3.4MM or so.  Let’s say he settles at $3.3MM.

Sometimes we see teams pass on their own players at perfectly reasonable prices, just to try something new.  I hope the Cubs don’t do this here.  All that has happened with Prior, all the hope and disappointment – it’s a sunk cost.  The question is whether the Cubs should invest another $3.3MM in this man to see if he can provide 150 decent innings in 2008.  I think the answer is yes.

His shoulder has been a problem for years, and now it will be clean of dead or scar tissue or whatever other crap has been floating around in there.  The money is a drop in the bucket for the Cubs, and if there’s a 10% chance of getting two seasons of Chris Carpenter-type pitching, they have to do it.

Here is a list of starters who signed for between $3-4MM this offseason: David Wells, Steve Trachsel, Ramon Ortiz, and Tony Armas Jr.  In the offseason I would’ve argued that none of them had a shot at ascending beyond fifth-starterdom, but Ortiz is doing his best to prove that wrong.  Prior fits into this class but has more potential, as frustrating as he is.

Jim Hendry said he is just going to let the rehab process take place and make a decision on Prior down the road.  That’s a perfectly reasonable approach.

No Deal For Zambrano?

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Just saw Ken Rosenthal on TV, and he had his usual collection of inside information.

Rosenthal says that contract talks with the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano are "about a week away from being tabled."  All along we’ve been hearing how he’d likely remain a Cub, even with the impending sale of the team.  Zambrano’s only had one good start in four tries this year; perhaps the Cubs want to see that ace again before committing.  It seems silly that such a huge contract could be affected by four starts, but you never know.  If Zambrano reaches the open market, the Cubs will likely be outbid.

Rosenthal also mentioned that instead of extending setup man Scott Linebrink’s contract, he might become their best trading chip.  They could look to upgrade at third base or left field, or even try to acquire their center fielder of the future.  Most folks feel that Kevin Towers would find a way to replace him on the cheap.

UPDATE: There is now an accompanying article for these rumors.

Tigers Interested In Ohman

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Look, it’s a real live trade rumor in April.  Phil Rogers reports that the Tigers might make a move for a left-handed reliever, and the Cubs’ Will Ohman is on their radar.

Oddly, the Cubs are carrying three lefties right now in the pen – Ohman, Scott Eyre, and Neal Cotts.  Last year, the 29 year-old Ohman put up 65 innings of 4.13 ERA ball, which included a K/9 over 10.  He was excellent against lefties, but for some reason faced righties over half the time.

Ohman has done poorly in six appearances for the Cubs this year.  Manager Lou Piniella recently commented on his 30 and 40-foot curveballs.  If the Cubs don’t trade him, they’ll probably demote him soon enough.  Ohman’s contract calls for $2.5MM over 2007-08, plus incentives.

Cubs Deals Proposed At BP

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I know MLBTR can be a little Cub-centric at times, but hey, whatcha gonna do.

Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus has an interesting Unfiltered post up today, outlining all sorts reasonable of trade scenarios the Cubs could pursue to clear up their outfield logjam.

Possible bounties for Jacque Jones, in Silver’s opinion: Mike MacDougal, Jon Lieber, or Erick Aybar.  I think any of those trades would improve the Cubs this year.  In particular, Lieber makes a fine fit.  He once won 20 games for the Cubs, but would only need a 4.50ish ERA to be one of the game’s best fifth starters.  I like the idea of giving Angel Guzman a shot at the job, but you can never have too much starting pitching depth.

Jones is owed $9MM for 2007-08, and could play center field in a pinch.  I wonder if the Marlins would add him to their top-ranked offense?  They could send Jorge Julio to balance salaries and a good prospect to make it worth the Cubs’ while.  For some reason, Julio in a Cubs uniform seems all too fitting.

Felix Pie Debuts

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Interesting development in Chicago, as Cubs top prospect Felix Pie has gotten the call and is leading off against the Padres today.  Word is that Angel Guzman was sent down, so Alfonso Soriano will not need to hit the DL.

Here’s a quick look at Pie from a fantasy perspective.  It seems like a brief taste, a chance to give Pie a week of starts in the bigs.  Once Soriano is healthy, the Cubs will have a crowded outfield with Matt Murton, Cliff Floyd, and Jacque Jones, Daryle Ward, and Pie also in the picture.  I doubt the Cubs want to use Pie as a fifth outfielder, so he’ll probably return to Triple A unless a Jones trade is in the offing.  That kind of deal seems unlikely for April. 

Ken Rosenthal’s Latest

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Ken Rosenthal has a new update up over at FOX Sports.  The trade rumor highlights:

  • Plenty of teams are interested in Brewers reliever Jose Capellan: the Giants, Rockies, Devil Rays, and Nationals.  I’m surprised that Capellan was deemed unworthy of the Brewers’ pen; he gave them 70 decent innings last year.  Rosenthal mentions that the Nats might convert Capellan back to a starter.  A fine idea, as that’s how Capellan came up with the Braves.  He just needs to get his curve and changeup tuned up.
  • The story on Mike Cameron remains the same: the Padres don’t want to go past two years.  A few days from now the team should know whether a compromise can be reached.  Maybe a middle-ground vesting option for 2010.  He’s a good athlete; he’s not going to age as poorly as some guys.  If he leaves, maybe the Pads would sign Aaron Rowand.  UPDATE: Just saw Mr. Rosenthal on television, and he mentioned the Braves as a mighty fine fit for Cameron if he hits the market.
  • Rosenthal seems to hint that the Cubs should still get a five-year, $80MMish deal done with Carlos Zambrano, perhaps within a few months.  At least, he’s urging them to close the deal despite the team being up for sale this summer.

Zambrano Talks Cool Down, But Not Over

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One person near the negotiations between Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs for a contract extension said that both sides have agreed to let things "cool down".

But that’s not to say the possibility of a deal has been greatly reduced.  Zambrano and his agent have decided to extend the deadline for completion of the deal "indefinitely".  Originally, the Zambrano camp had placed a deadline at Opening Day, but has since backed off of that given the news that the Cubs parent company, the Tribune Co., will be sold and that the buyer will then sell the Cubs in the offseason.

Both the Cubs, Zambrano and his handlers are saying that they think a deal can still be worked out despite this turn of events.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".

Zambrano Talks on Hold

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You may want to wait just a little longer on that Carlos Zambrano Cubs jersey you were thinking of buying.

Just a few days ago it seemed as if Zambrano and the Cubs were on the verge of finalizing a 5-year $80 million dollar contract extentions.  But those talks are apparently on hold now that the Cubs owner, The Tribune Co., has been sold to Sam Zell, a real estate tycoon, who plans to sell the Cubs in the offseason.

Most felt that 5 yrs/$80 million was a pretty darn good deal for the Cubs.  If it really is, then the new owner may want to let the deal go through as having Zambrano around for the long-term could make the Cubs more attractive to potential buyers.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".

Zambrano Close To Deal With Cubs

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According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs and Carlos Zambrano are putting the finishing touches on a five-year, $80MM deal.  Zambrano’s 2007 contract would be erased by it, making him a Cub through 2011.

It’s not quite the San Diego discount, but the Cubs have been signing some below-market deals lately.  I guess there’s something about Wrigley Field and Cubs fans.

Surprisingly, PECOTA would only give Zambrano about $52MM over the next five seasons.  I wondered if the trends in Zambrano’s peripherals didn’t sit well with our favorite personified projection system, but it’s actually a workload concern.  BP’s system sees 2007 as the last 200 inning season of his career, noticing shades of Mark Gubicza. 

Rockies Offer Kim To Orioles

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Ken Rosenthal’s recent column is chock full o’ rumors as usual.  The highlights:

  • The Rockies offered Byung-Hyun Kim to the Orioles for reliever Todd Williams but were turned down.  The O’s may yet work out a deal with the Mets for Williams.  Kim, meanwhile, may end up a bargain for some team if the price is that low.  Really, he’s better than most teams’ fifth starters.
  • Rosenthal agrees with most that Carlos Zambrano will sign with the Cubs by Opening Day.  However, a couple of other big-name free-agent starters to be probably will hit the market.  Jason Jennings and Jake Westbrook are two of the younger members of the ’08 free agent starter class.  Mark Buehrle, Joe Kennedy, Kyle Lohse, and Kim will all be under 30 as well.
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