2007 Chicago Cubs
Updated 12/07/2006
Full disclosure: I am a diehard Cubs fan. Still, I think I’m capable of pulling together a Team Outlook for this bunch.
Jim Hendry’s 2007 contract obligatons:
C – Michael Barrett – $3MM
C – Henry Blanco – $1.8MM
1B – Derrek Lee – $13MM
2B – Mark DeRosa – $4.33MM
SS – Cesar Izturis – $4.15MM
3B – Aramis Ramirez – $11MM
IF – Ryan Theriot – $0.38MM
LF – Matt Murton – $0.38MM
CF – Jacque Jones – $4MM
RF – Alfonso Soriano – $9MM
OF – Angel Pagan – $0.38MM
SP – Carlos Zambrano – $6.5MM
SP – Ted Lilly – $10MM
SP – Rich Hill – $0.38MM
SP –
SP – Wade Miller – $1.5MM
SP – Mark Prior – $3.65MM
SP – Sean Marshall – $0.38MM
RP – Ryan Dempster – $5MM
RP – Bob Howry – $4MM
RP – Scott Eyre – $3.5MM
RP – Will Ohman – $0.61MM
RP – Mike Wuertz – $0.38MM
RP – Kerry Wood – $1.75MM
RP – Roberto Novoa – $0.38MM
RP – Neal Cotts – $0.4MM
Buyouts:
RP – Kerry Wood – $3MM
Injured players:
RP – Glendon Rusch – $3.25MM
The Cubs have about $96MM locked up before raises, unless perhaps insurance covers Rusch’s salary. Also keep in mind that Miller can earn an additional $3.75MM in incentives and some of Soriano’s bonus may need to be paid out in ’07. Zambrano should get decent money in arbitration, so a rough estimate is $102MM committed. There have been rumors of the team taking payroll all the way to $120MM to field a winner in 2007. That’d mean a lot of patchwork via free agency. Hey, it worked for the Marlins in ’97. Wow, that team had some crappy seasons by hitters now that I look at it.
Mark DeRosa will handle second base now, so the infield’s set.
In the outfield, Hendry really just needs a center fielder. Kenny Lofton is the only real viable option in free agency. Otherwise Jones or Soriano will have to learn the position. There’s also been talk of adding Cliff Floyd as a platoon partner for Murton; I don’t see the point.
The rotation could probably use one more arm behind the front three of Zambrano, Lilly, and Hill. Someone to bridge the gap between Hill and the fifth starter DL combo of Prior and Miller. Gil Meche remains on the radar. In-house longshot starting candidates include Dempster and Cotts. The trade bait seems to be Jones, who apparently wants out of Chicago.
A few of the pitchers I’ve listed will be squeezed out and sent to the minors or traded. The Cubs have three lefties in the pen currently.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Luis Gonzalez
When we last checked in with future free agent left fielder Luis Gonzalez, he’d been informed by the D’Backs that they didn’t want him back.
Now, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a few interested teams for us:
"Don’t feel bad about Luis Gonzalez‘s Diamondbacks career being over. The Orioles, Tigers, Rangers, and Cubs are already considering him as a DH and/or left fielder for next year."
Word was that Gonzo wanted to stay in the NL, meaning a return to the Cubs might be at the top of the list. The problem? The Cubs already have a left fielder, and he’s having a fine age 24 season.
Matt Murton: .294/.359/.438
Luis Gonzalez: .274/.356/.453
Given that Murton is improving and Gonzalez is on the decline, and that Gonzalez will make significantly more money, the signing wouldn’t make much sense.
If the Cubs really are interested, that should mean one of two things.
1. They plan on using Murton in center field and letting Juan Pierre go (unlikely but not the worst idea in the world if Murton could somehow pull it off on defense).
2. They are considering trading Murton (possible).
If the Cubs want to make a major trade, say involving Miguel Tejada, Murton could be a coveted player.
Carroll: Aramis Ramirez To Stay A Cub?
Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll gave hope to Cubs fans everywhere in his chat today. When posed a question about Aramis Ramirez leaving the Cubs as a free agent, he responded:
"I don’t think Ramirez will leave. In fact, I think the deal’s essentially done to keep him."
I thought that one line was definitely noteworthy, as Carroll is known to have some solid Cubs sources. Last month, the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan indicated that Ramirez would stay, while SI’s Jon Heyman thought differently.
Chuck James and Rich Hill Examined
A couple of interesting rookie southpaws have burst onto the scene in recent months. RotoAuthority has an in-depth look at Rich Hill and Chuck James.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Juan Pierre
There’s been some talk in the Chicago papers that the Cubs may offer Juan Pierre three years and $24MM this offseason. Let’s take a closer look at the 29 year-old speedster.
The Cubs acquired Pierre to play center field on December 7th of last year. Before then, the Cubs flirted with Milton Bradley, Brad Wilkerson, Austin Kearns, and Dave Roberts. Definitely a mixed bag there knowing what we know now. I was not a fan of the Pierre acquisition, though the price didn’t seem terribly high to me. In hindsight, Cubs fans wouldn’t mind having Ricky Nolasco back.
Pierre had an awful start to his Cubs career, hitting just .240/.276/.309 over the season’s first two months. Something clicked in June, however, as he’s hit .316/.363/.433 since. Still, Pierre is miscast as a leadoff hitter and perhaps even as a regular.
The point of a leadoff hitter is to get on base, right? Pierre ranks a woeful 24th in OBP among leadoff hitters with 300 plate appearances this season. Clunky guys like Kevin Youkilis and Jason Kendall are running circles around Pierre’s OBP. Speaking of running, that’s often the defense for letting a guy like Pierre lead off. But when you’re getting nailed on 27% of your steal attempts, you’re not adding much value there.
It’s also well-known that Pierre doesn’t make up for his offensive shortcomings with his center field defense. His arm is awful and his range is unimpressive. In short, Pierre would make a decent fourth outfielder. To pay him anywhere near $8MM annually is a mistake only the Cubs could make. Baseball Prospectus indicates that he should be paid about half that.
Cubs fans can only hope another, dumber team swoops in with an offer Pierre can’t refuse. Matt Murton would be a better option atop the Cubs’ order. Solid free agent outfielders include David Dellucci, Kenny Lofton, and Dave Roberts.
Twins Trade For Phil Nevin
Given that the Twins rank second from the bottom of the AL in home runs, they acquired a DH type with some pop: Phil Nevin.
Nevin’s had his ups and downs this year between the Rangers and Cubs, but he is slugging .456 in 355 ABs. Twins’ DHs have been a void this season so Nevin can only help. Minnesota currently trails the White Sox by a half game for the AL wild card.
Nevin’s $10MM salary ranks second on his new club, though the Cubs are footing some of the bill in hopes of receiving a decent prospect.
Heyman: Aramis Ramirez May Become A Free Agent
It seems that SI’s Jon Heyman has a different take than the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan on the Aramis Ramirez situation. As you recall, Sullivan mentioned ten days ago that the Cubs believe Ramirez won’t exercise his out clause and become a free agent this winter. It seemed curious, as Ramirez could easily top three years and $33.5MM for his age 29-31 seasons on the open market.
Yesterday afternoon, Heyman commented:
"Aramis Ramirez is telling friends that he plans to exercise an option to opt out of his contract with the Cubs. Ramirez…is also telling people he’d love to go to New York. The Astros, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox and Tigers could be among favored players for Ramirez. But, of course, the Cubs won’t let him leave easily."
So what’s it going to be, Aramis? Honor your current deal (a hometown discount), take more money on the open market, or renegotiate with the Cubs?
Tribune: Cubs Believe Ramirez Will Stay
According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune:
"While the Cubs still believe Aramis Ramirez won’t exercise his opt-out clause after this season and leave $22 million on the table to become a free agent, they do have a third baseman in the system with a bright future. West Tenn’s Scott Moore, a 22-year-old prospect who was a first-round draft pick of Detroit in 2002, is tied for second in the Southern League with 20 home runs and ranks third with 68 RBIs. Moore, who was acquired with Roberto Novoa from Detroit in the Kyle Farnsworth trade, is at least a year away from the majors."
Ramirez’s contract, signed in April of last year, calls for $11MM in 2007 and $11.5MM in 2008. The deal also has an $11MM mutual option for ’09 that becomes guaranteed with 270 games played from 2007-08. How likely is this? Here’s a look at Ramirez’s games played.
Age 23: 158 games
Age 24: 142 games
Age 25: 159 games
Age 26: 145 games
Age 27: 123 games
Age 28: 158 games (projected)
2005, Ramirez dealt with groin problems, lower back tightness, a sprained ankle, a bruised shin, and a quad injury. The quad injury is what really caused the missed time, and it looks like an exception rather than the norm. So I think it’s safe to say Ramirez is looking at a three-year, $33.5MM deal for his age 29-31 seasons.
One has to wonder whether the Tribune is quietly laying the groundwork for the Scott Moore era in Chicago. Paul Sullivan hasn’t been a company man, though, so there are probably no hidden motives. Cubs fans can rest easy for the moment; it appears Ramirez will remain a Cub.
The offseason won’t be without temptation, however. Ramirez’s toughest competition at the hot corner: Aubrey Huff and Nomar Garciaparra. He’s younger, he’s better, and he’s healthier than that pair. The most comparable contract might be Troy Glaus at four guaranteed years, $45MM for 2005-08. Glaus was entering his age 28 season, though he’d played just 149 games from 2003-04. Ramirez, on the other hand, just posted his third consecutive 30 HR campaign. There’s no doubt he could get four guaranteed years (as opposed to the current two) and at least $13MM annually.
Either Ramirez A)doesn’t exercise his out clause and honors his deal (which is a hometown discount), B)tests the free agent market and finds several superior offers, or C)renegotiates his current deal. Jim Hendry hopes for A; C seems a lot more likely.
Minor Trades and Rumors
The Cubs unloaded Neifi Perez on the Tigers today, and it was no surprise Neifi got through waivers. What team would want to be on the hook for $2.5MM for him next year? Ditching Neifi at this point at least partially rights the wrong of signing him to an extension in the first place for Jim Hendry. The Cubs’ "everything man" will be making outs atop of Detroit’s lineup now. Even more impressive is that Hendry snagged a 22 year-old catching prospect, Chris Robinson, in the deal.
The Mets added righty reliever Guillermo Mota today. Along with Oliver Perez, this is another project with plenty of upside. Mota was one of the game’s top setup men a few years ago.
Tom Glavine‘s got a possible blood clot, which could mean season or career-ending surgery. At least his life is not in danger. The news first appeared on an ESPN message board from a man said to be Glavine’s brother-in-law. Back when Glavine appeared healthy, the same source indicated that the southpaw would finish his career with the Braves, at any salary.
Reggie Sanders may have cleared waivers. Who wants a 38 year-old right fielder with a .248/.304/.424 line? Don’t forget the $5MM he’s owed next year.
From Yankees announcer Jim Kaat: the Rangers may be talking to the Orioles about Mark Teixeira. Tex is from Maryland, for what it’s worth.
Plenty of buzz going around in various forms of media that the Red Sox may acquire reliever LaTroy Hawkins. We’ll know soon enough. The 33 year-old has, at least, kept the ball in the yard and exhibited good control with the Orioles this year.
Chicago Tribune Takes Izturis Propaganda Too Far
As you probably know, the Tribune Company owns both a Chicago newspaper and the Cubs. Sometimes, this conflict of interest gets out of hand. A perfect example would be today’s analysis of the Cubs’ acquisition of Cesar Izturis. Let’s break down the work of the three guilty sportswriters (their writing in bold).
Phil Rogers: In Izturis, the Cubs have landed themselves an excellent all-around player.
Shouldn’t an all-around player not be among the worst hitters in baseball?
He won a Gold Glove in 2004 and began ’05 as one of baseball’s best hitters, collecting 75 hits through May—the first Dodger to do that in the era of divisional play.
This is the first of several times the sportswriters mention Izturis’s good two months among the 2364 at-bats of his career as a sign that he can hit. How selective is that stat? How about the rest of 2005, when Izturis hit .173/.218/.222?
Mike Downey: A year ago or so, Izturis looked like the best shortstop in the National League, period.
This is misleading, since the NL didn’t have much shortstop depth in 2005. Still, what about Felipe Lopez, Rafael Furcal, and Jimmy Rollins?
Dave van Dyck: But all of them predict he will be a perfect No. 2 hitter behind Juan Pierre.
What makes a good No. 2 hitter? Probably the ability to get on base in front of the big guys, right? Izturis has a truly awful career OBP of .295. That’s worse than Neifi Perez, for those scoring at home. This guy is a professional outmaker. But hey, at least he makes good contact. Just like Neifi and Placido Polanco. Truth is, the words "on-base percentage" are never uttered in today’s Tribune in reference to Izturis. In fact, they left it out of his career stats.
Somebody needs to start a petition or something to get the Cubs to acknowledge on-base percentage. This is no longer some stat-nerd movement. This is a fairly obvious problem that even the casual fan understands. The Cubs’ team OBP of .319 is by far the worst in the league. The Cubs could actually field a lineup soon featuring Izturis (.302), Ronny Cedeno (.280), Jacque Jones (.315), Juan Pierre (.323), and Phil Nevin (.309). That has to be some sort of record. Maybe Neifi can get in the lineup at third base. Somebody get Jeff Francoeur and Angel Berroa on the phone – history is being made!
CubDumb said it best:
"What the Sox and their fans can really enjoy is the greatest baseball con ever executed in this city:
THEY MADE THE CUBS BELIEVE THAT CRUSTY-OLD-SCHOOL-GRINDER-LIL’-BALL IS WHAT WINS YOU A WORLD SERIES.
What they saw was a justification to keep running the organization the way they always had: Collecting and developing speed, for instance. And ignoring, or quite possibly holding in contempt, the ability to get walked."
As a lifelong Cubs fan, I can honestly say that I hate this team.