Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. A summary appears below.
- Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options. That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
- The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle. Strictly a rental. That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
- The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira. Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
- Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks. They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day. The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters. If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump. Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
- Barry Bonds‘s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening. Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate. Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
- Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley.
- Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him. Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
- Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
- The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth. Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned. The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons.
What About Other White Sox Pitchers?
A couple of Chicago newspapers raised a logical possibility today: what if the impending White Sox fire sale extends beyond those who will become free agents? Specifically, the Sox have three veteran starting pitchers under contract and any of them could be traded.
Take Javier Vazquez. He’s a fine addition to any team looking for a complementary, solid, healthy pitcher. Vazquez is signed through 2010 at $11.5MM annually, about the market rate. He’ll turn 31 soon, and has no health issues. His strikeout rate is strong, his walk rate low. Granted he’s HR prone and his ERA never quite seems to match his other stats, but he’s plenty valuable.
There’s Jon Garland, who’s only 27 and has quietly posted a 3.51 ERA. I’m quite skeptical, because his strikeout rate is at a career low but his hit rate is too. That’s not sustainable. Nonetheless, he can really eat up innings and has been healthy for years aside from minor concerns this spring. Garland makes $10MM this year and $12MM in ’08.
Jose Contreras is the riskiest White Sox pitcher. Contreras earns $9MM this year, $10MM in ’08, and $10MM in ’09. His control this year has been his worst since ’04, and his strikeout rate is a career worst. He’s 35 and looks like he’s 40. He is compensating for his declining skills by getting more groundballs.
Any of these three could be available in the coming weeks. Williams might find that he can get much better prospects in return for pitchers who will not walk after 2007. Imagine what he could get if he were to package two of them. That would be almost unprecedented.
Latest From Gammons
The man himself, Peter Gammons, had a blog posting on Saturday that I neglected to mention here.
- Gammons mentions some suitors for Mark Buehrle: the Mets, Cardinals, and Mariners. He draws the Jermaine Dye/Padres connection we have seen in the past.
- Gammons believes the Astros will move one of Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, or Chad Qualls. However, that was written before Lidge hit the DL for a strained oblique. Houston would also love to move Morgan Ensberg, but that’s nothing new.
- The Dodgers are looking for a corner infield slugger, but aren’t interested in Troy Glaus or Scott Rolen. Adam Dunn isn’t in the Dodgers’ plans, either. Dunn’s defensive limitations really seem to be hindering a deal. If they are going to give up multiple young future stars, it’s going to take Mark Teixeira. In other words, they’d go all-in.
- Bill Stoneman is "cautiously looking for a bat." Cautious is the name of the game with Stoneman. It’s a seller’s market for power hitters. Imagine what the Marlins could get for Miguel Cabrera.
Stark’s Latest
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has his latest Rumblings and Grumblings column up, and it’s chock full o’ rumors.
- Stark speaks to one NL exec who thinks any Barry Bonds trade rumor is hogwash. That source believes that there would be no market for him. Personally, I don’t buy it. There would only be $8MM or so left on the deal, and as a two-month DH Bonds could make a huge impact on a contender. And he did indicate he’d waive his no-trade clause.
- Word is that the Mets wouldn’t trade Lastings Milledge for an impending free agent – Mark Buehrle included. Milledge could go in a Dontrelle Willis deal though.
- The Braves are seen as a more likely suitor for Buehrle, once he’s truly made available in a week or two. Atlanta won’t settle for a Mike Maroth type. What would the Braves give up for Buehrle? Kenny Williams should pry away Jarrod Saltalamacchia if he can. Otherwise a package involving Brent Lillibridge or Brandon Jones would make sense.
- Meanwhile, the market on Jermaine Dye seems tepid. It would help if he was healthy and hitting. Ah, alliteration.
- Stark debunks the popular Ken Griffey Jr. to Atlanta rumor. He says the Braves aren’t looking for big contract commitments and are more focused on pitching than offense. Rightfully so.
- The Yankees have added Scott Hatteberg to their list of first base targets. As if they needed more OBP.
Should White Sox Break Their Rules For Buehrle?
The White Sox have a rule: no contracts exceeding three years for pitchers. This is because they signed Jaime Navarro for four years before the 1997 season and Navarro was terrible.
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune urges Jerry Reinsdorf to break the rules and give Mark Buehrle a five-year deal. Rogers feels that Buehrle compares to Billy Pierce and Tom Glavine, southpaws who remained successful for their age 29-33 seasons. Baseball Prospectus equates Buehrle with Jim Kaat, who was also better than average at that age. Even #2 comp Jerry Reuss would’ve been a strong buy for his age 29-33 seasons.
Rogers thinks the Sox should offer five years and $75MM, publicly. If Buehrle chooses the free market over that, the team at least made a legitimate, reasonable offer. Even better would be to pull off a four-year agreement. One problem is that Buehrle is riding high on a .264 BABIP, and it’s giving him an artificially low ERA. Regardless, the Sox do not seem likely to pony up that kind of cash for Buehrle. While signing him truly could work out, it’s quite possible Kenny Williams could better allocate that money and fill his spot internally.
There was chatter involving both 1993 expansion teams and Buehrle this morning. Buster Olney quotes a rival GM pondering whether the Marlins could make a surprising play for him. Right now GM Larry Beinfest still thinks his club is a contender. Meanwhile, Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post urges the Rockies to acquire Buehrle as part of a playoff push. It would definitely be an unexpected move, but the Rockies are two games over .500 and only 5.5 out.
A final note on the White Sox: Mark Gonzales reports that scouts from the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Orioles, and Devil Rays were in attendance at the White Sox-Marlins game last night. Those scouts could’ve been looking at a number of Sox players. Or perhaps Marlins starter Dontrelle Willis.
White Sox Trade Winds
Tons of articles today about the plans of Kenny Williams and the Chicago White Sox.
Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune speaks of a rumor involving both Mark Buehrle and Jermaine Dye going to the Mets for prospects. This one may have originated on ESPN. Or maybe it’s a contortion of Saturday’s Newark Star-Ledger rumor. When you see a rumor like that, a red flag should go off. Why would Williams trade both in a package deal? Maximum value is extracted with separate deals.
Both van Dyck and Buehrle himself give much credence to this particular trade talk. Buehrle wants to stay, but chances are slim because he’s looking for a five-year contract. He deserves it, but it’s not the White Sox way. Five years, $70MM sounds appropriate. Poor guy’s got a kid coming soon; I’m sure he’d rather not go through this.
Van Dyck also reports that GMs have been "circling Williams like vultures." At least publicly, Williams is saying that he has not yet decided whether to wave the white flag on the 2007 season. The Sox are 10.5 games out in the AL Central and 9.5 games out of the wild card. It would take a miracle. Williams, Ozzie Guillen, and Paul Konerko met yesterday to discuss the current club and came up empty on fresh ideas. If Scott Podsednik and Darin Erstad don’t spark the lineup when they return later this month, the Sox will likely officially give up.
Williams has more to offer than his future free agents (Buehrle, Dye, and Tadahito Iguchi.) He’s also receiving interest in some of his relievers. Perhaps Mike MacDougal or Matt Thornton could be sent packing.
Mets Inquire On Buehrle, Lidge
Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger writes that the Mets have inquired as to the availability of starter Mark Buehrle as well as reliever Brad Lidge.
According to Graziano, a Buehrle acquisition would allow the Mets to move Jorge Sosa to the bullpen, helping two areas at once. Apparently Omar Minaya has been a big Buehrle fan for a while. Something involving Lastings Milledge would make a ton of sense. Would a Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber be required as well?
Kenny Williams and Omar Minaya have matched up a couple times before, when Minaya was GM of the Expos. The Sox plucked Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett from the Expos in separate deals, sending away Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, Jon Rauch, and Gary Majewski. With over a month to spare, it sounds like Williams will sit back and see what offers come to him. On the other hand, the acquiring team can’t afford to wait.
Graziano says the Mets believe Lidge would be very comfortable working behind Billy Wagner, his former mentor. The availability of Lidge is still in question however.
Olney Speculation: Dye To Diamondbacks
Buster Olney had an idea today worth discussing. With the Diamondbacks in the thick of a pennant race and Carlos Quentin pressing, how about acquiring Jermaine Dye from the White Sox as a rental?
GMs Josh Byrnes and Kenny Williams seem to get along, matching up on the Javier Vazquez/Chris Young deal in December of ’05 and the smaller Alex Cintron trade in spring 2006. Olney believes Williams is ready to trade Dye now. So far the Padres and Dodgers seem to be the main contenders, so keeping Dye away from those clubs would provide an additional benefit.
Earlier this month Williams said he wouldn’t be trading for prospects, but I don’t think that rules out good young players. The Diamondbacks won’t be returning Chris Young, but they do have expendable quality guys like Alberto Callaspo, Mark Reynolds, and Scott Hairston. However, I have a feeling KW would ask for Micah Owings given the demand for Dye. 25 year-old reliever Tony Pena could be a target as well. Dustin Nippert is another intriguing arm for the White Sox, even if the results haven’t been there recently.
Owings may be off limits or simply too much for an impending free agent. But two of the other players mentioned above would make a nice package for Dye.
Scouting The Reds
The chatter regarding Reds’ left fielder Adam Dunn is picking up, and it’s only June 13th. It’s looking more and more like we can add Dunn to our 2008 MLB free agents list, as his 2008 option becomes void with a trade. Ken Griffey Jr. and various other Reds may be in play too.
Five articles referenced Dunn this morning. The Newark Star-Ledger contains just one sentence:
"The Cincinnati Reds, who could be in position to trade reliever David Weathers and slugger Adam Dunn, had a scout at the [Yankees-Diamondbacks] game."
One imagines the Yankees may like a number of additional Reds, including Griffey and Mike Stanton. But the Weathers/Dunn speculation is the most reasonable. The Reds, by the way, have yet to approach Junior about any possible trades. While we know Griffey would probably approve a trade to Atlanta, some real creativity would be required with his contract. And he’d have to be open to playing left field. Buster Olney noted today that the White Sox have at least had internal discussions about acquiring Griffey.
The Dayton Daily News has the scoop on scouts from many teams in attendance at the Reds-Angels game last night: the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, White Sox, Tigers, and more. Actually the article references "Los Angeles" so that could be the Angels too. Any of these clubs could conceivably make room for Dunn. I imagine young pitching is the name of the game for Wayne Krivsky.
Besides the previously named players, Eddie Guardado, Scott Hatteberg, and Kyle Lohse could be on the market. The Reds have a $3MM option for ’08 on Guardado and a $1.85MM club option for ’08 on Hatteberg. Lohse, a Scott Boras client, reaches free agency after this season.
Could The Cardinals Acquire Buehrle?
Larry over at Viva El Birdos breaks down exactly how rare a trade of a pitcher of Mark Buehrle‘s caliber would be. He also compares previous midseason deals for big-name starters to see what the Cardinals or any other team might have to send over to Chicago.
Another marquee pitcher dealt midseason was Randy Johnson in 1998. While the age 34 season is rarely considered a player’s prime, the Unit didn’t really establish himself until he was 26. Anyway, that deal required a serious bounty of John Halama, Carlos Guillen, and Freddy Garcia. Halama had a few useful seasons, Garcia became Seattle’s ace, and Guillen developed into a star. Guillen didn’t break out until he joined the Tigers in ’04, however.