Rowand for Garland Rumor
A lot of folks are wondering if there’s anything to the rumored swap of Jon Garland for Aaron Rowand. Todd Zolecki from the Philadelphia Inquirer said it best:
1. Garland has a 6.04 ERA.
2. He just signed a three-year, $29 million contract in December. He makes $10 million in 2007 and $12 million in 2008. Phillies GM Pat Gillick has talked often about payroll flexibility. It’s doubtful he would take on such a contract, especially for a pitcher who is slumping. Garland’s contract also includes a no-trade clause.
3. Perhaps most important, the Phils love Rowand.
Everything Zolecki says here is spot on. The proposed deal here would be a huge win for the White Sox but the Phils could do better if they wanted to unload Rowand and replace him with Shane Victorino.
Garland succeeded last year because he sliced his walk and home run rates from previous levels. His sharp control and low strikeout rate has been on par with the rest of the White Sox pitching staff, but he’s got the worst home runs allowed rate in all of baseball (over 2 per nine innings). Also not helping is a hit rate over 11, third worst in baseball. Can’t blame it on BABIP, which sits at a reasonable .310.
One would expect Garland to keep his ERA under 5 for the life of his contract, but he doesn’t figure to be worth more than three wins a year from here on out.
Aaron Rowand figures to be a bit more valuable, maybe 3.5 wins per season for a while. His current .301/.345/.509 line resembles his breakthrough 2004. Rowand also has highly-rated defense, but that depends on which metric you use.
If the White Sox are looking to bring in a center fielder, names like Eric Byrnes, Kenny Lofton, Ken Griffey Jr., Ryan Freel,Torii Hunter, Matt Lawton, Joey Gathright, and Juan Pierre might be available. Pierre and Griffey are players to which the Sox have been linked in the past. Another option would be to shift Scott Podsednik to center and bring in a left fielder like Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, Luis Gonzalez, Jose Cruz Jr., Cliff Floyd, or Shannon Stewart.
Report: Sox To Break Up Starting Five
Curious about Kenny Williams’s plans? No more need to guess whether he’ll trade one of his starting five – he came right out and said it:
"While I don’t think there can be an excess of pitching, I do realize that before the start of the ’07 season, with all things staying the same, we’re going to have to find a spot for Brandon. Where or how that shapes up, I don’t know."
Of course, KW is in the catbird seat. He has an excess of the most valuable commodity in baseball, and none of his guys are impending free agents. He may consider dealing one of the five within a couple of months for bullpen help and whatever else he needs, but the Sox will give the current relievers a shot first. They may need reinforcements by May. But the ‘pen is not bad, as solid years are expected from Cotts, Politte and McCarthy. Jenks is a bit of a wild card. It’s just that it’s unreasonable to expect this group to match the 2005 performance without some help.
A rundown of each starter’s age and contract status:
Javier Vazquez (29) – $11.5MM in 2006, $12.5MM in 2007. Eligible for arbitration in 2008.
Freddy Garcia (29) – $9MM in 2006, $10MM in 2007
Jose Contreras (34) – $8MM in 2006, $9MM in 2007, $10MM in 2008, $10MM in 2009
Mark Buehrle (27) – $7.75MM in 2006, $9.5MM club option in 2007
Jon Garland (26) – $7MM in 2006, $10MM in 2007, $12MM in 2008
Buehrle is without a doubt the most valuable of the five. Will Walt Jocketty make a play to bring him back home?
P.S. Did Uribe really draw two walks last night? What the?
Sox Brass Displeased With Jenks, Hermanson
All April Fooling aside, let’s get down to some serious trade rumor business. I just spoke with a respected White Sox source, so here’s the latest info.
Seems the club’s decision makers are quite vexed with both Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson.
Not only did Jenks show up overweight to spring training, but he still hasn’t gotten into shape. His conditioning, and not his velocity, is the point of concern here.
The Sox are incensed at Hermanson for telling them he was OK when he really wasn’t. The severe back problems could force him to retire, and he did not give the team early warning to prepare.
UPDATE: My source just got back to me with further details on Hermanson. He told me:
"Kenny and Ozzie called him into Ozzie’s office around the first weekend of March and asked if his back condition was bad enough for them to look for a reliever. He said no. Then a few weeks later the news came out in the papers that Hermanson would consider career-threatening surgery if the epidural shots didn’t work. When Kenny read that, it sent him over the edge."
In 2005, Jenks and Hermanson combined for 96.6 innings of 2.33 ERA ball with 40 saves. The Sox need to replace this production somehow, and obviously Boone Logan and Matt Thornton aren’t the answer. Jenks and Hermanson have put management in a compromising position – they’ll be forced to trade for a reliever in the near future. The starting six will have to be broken up.
MLB Free Agents 2007: Eric Gagne
Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne. 30 years old. An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings. Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter! Roto Immortality.) Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer. A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007.
With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that ’07 option. Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it. The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers" on the roster. No, Jose Mesa and Braden Looper don’t count. Danys Baez is an excellent backup that will allow the Dodgers to limit Gagne’s innings this season. But should a decent setup man emerge from Yhency Brazoban, Franquelis Osoria, and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers may just send Gagne packing this summer.
So which contending teams have questionable closers?
Red Sox. I have to assume Epstein doesn’t see Papelbon as a long-term reliever/closer candidate. He’ll probably be in the rotation by July, and Keith Foulke may give out by then. The pen has some depth, but lacks a relief ace. Many folks see Craig Hansen closing out games by year’s end, and I don’t disagree. Still, if he stumbles a bit in his first Major League season, the Sox could take a crack at Gagne.
White Sox. Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson are wild cards right now. With only Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte as dependable options, Kenny Williams could go after the cream of the crop in Gagne. His trading chips will probably have to come from his Major League roster this time.
Rangers. Should Francisco Cordero happen to go down this year, I’m not sure if Texas will be content to give the ball to Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, or Frank Francisco in the 9th inning.
Braves. This really wouldn’t be their style, though Gagne would really solidify the relief corps.
Phillies. What’s Plan B if Tom Gordon‘s elbow gives out? The Phils need Ryan Madson in the rotation and probably don’t trust Arthur Rhodes.
This is all just speculation, but watch the rumors fly this summer if Baez and Gagne are both pitching well and an injury to a starter or position player creates a need for the Dodgers.
Thanks to The Closer Watch for the current bullpen depth charts.
Borchard For Thornton Trade Completed
The White Sox sent Joe Borchard, object of many fans’ scorn, to the Mariners for lefty reliever Matt Thornton. U.S.S. Mariner has detailed analysis if you’re interested.
I was reading the Tribune this weekend, and it had a section where fans explained what to do when you visit U.S. Cellular. One suggestion was along the lines of:
1. Order a polish and an MGD.
2. Heckle Joe Borchard.
3. Have another polish.
4. Repeat.
So who’s the new whipping boy?
Cubs Interested In Juan Gonzalez
Now that it’s February 20th, the trade and signing rumors aren’t flowing as freely as they used to. Occasionally we have to go to great lengths to dig up mildly intriguing rumors. By great lengths I mean I had to bust out my high school Spanish textbook.
El Nuevo Dia is a Puerto Rican newspaper. Yesterday, Hiram Alberto Torraca had an exclusive interview with former MVP Juan Gonzalez. Gonzalez was last seen with the Indians, amassing a single at-bat before straining his hamstring. If you want to register and can read Spanish, you can view the article here. For the rest of you, allow me to do my best to give you the gist of it.
According to Gonzalez, the Cubs sent Carmelo Martinez to Puerto Rico to watch him swing the bat and run the bases. [Note – Martinez is the hitting coach for the Cubs’ rookie ball affiliate, as far as I can tell.] The Cubs have yet to make an offer to Gonzalez because they wanted to observe him first.
Gonzalez has been practicing daily and says that the Red Sox and White Sox have also shown interest in him. Juan Gone’s thoughts on playing in the National League for the first time in his career:
"If I have to go the National League, I will do it. With that there is no problem. I am in the best condition of my life."
According to Gonzalez, Indians GM Mark Shapiro had promised a minor league invite for 2006 but didn’t keep his word. On the subject of money, Gonzalez had this to say:
"At this time, money does not matter to me. What I want is to play and to achieve some goals. If no contract is offered I will be tranquil and happy because I arrived at where wanted and I achieved many things."
It’s anticipated that Gonzalez will see some time in the World Baseball Classic, although he has yet to be added officially to Puerto Rico’s 30 man roster.
Gonzalez was last relevant in baseball in 2003, when he hit .294/.329/.572 for the Rangers in 327 ABs. It seems that teams continue to be tantalized by Gonzalez’s power even as he enters his age 36 season with a recent record of poor health. Gonzalez has mashed lefties throughout his career, and would make an intriguing platoon partner for Jacque Jones to say the least.
White Sox July Trade Inquiries
Scott Reifert is the VP of communications for the White Sox. In a cool trendsetting move, the team created an MLB blog for him last June. I didn’t unearth any juicy trade rumors while browsing the blog, but there was one interesting post on July 1st entitled Trade Deadline Aftermath. According to Reifert:
"A poster, who had read about the unrealistic trade demands that were out there from other teams, asked me to identify the players in our organization who were in high demand.
I cleared it with Ken Williams, so here they are: Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Freddy Garcia, Damaso Marte, Aaron Rowand, Brandon McCarthy, Brian Anderson, Chris Young and Ryan Sweeney."
Williams has been quite active since then – here’s the full rundown.
Buehrle – White Sox possess $9.5MM option for 2007, a no-brainer
Garland – Signed to a three-year, $29MM extension this winter
Garcia – Signed through 2007
Marte – Traded for Rob Mackowiak
Rowand – Traded for Jim Thome
McCarthy – Hoping for starting rotation opening
Anderson – Penciled in as starting CF
Young – Dealt for Javier Vazquez. Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus had some interesting comments on the Diamondbacks’ CF prospect:
"Chris Young and Brian Anderson might have seemed interchangeable to people who were more casual followers of the White Sox, but Young (now a Diamondback) is the better prospect by a long shot. He has two years on Anderson, and his skills rate is vastly superior in every department except throwing arm (not a substantial consideration for PECOTA) and contact hitting ability. PECOTA sees Young growing into a .300 EqA guy, with about a 30% chance of becoming a true superstar. There’s some risk involved because of Young’s strikeout rate–it takes a “special” prospect to get both Willie Mays and Chin-Feng Chen on his comparables list–but we’ll save that discussion for the next installment."
Sweeney – Hit .298/.357/.371 as a 20 year-old in Double A, has time to develop power and regain top prospect status. Was named in Miguel Tejada trade rumors.
Out of nine players named by Reifert, three were dealt and another was close to being traded. You can bet Jose Contreras has been a hot topic of late, although the Ozzie and Kenny continue to deny the rumors. In other White Sox news, this guy continues to make a fool of himself.
Tejada Could Still Be Dealt By April
We thought the Miguel Tejada rumors had died down. He seemed fairly content, and said all the right things. However, Daily Herald columnist Barry Rozner has reignited the Miggy hot stove talk.
In Washington DC to cover the White Sox ceremony, Rozner ran into all sorts of DC media types. According to Rozner:
"They’re hearing the Orioles would love to move the unhappy Tejada out of Baltimore before the season even begins."
He adds that he expects Tejada to be moved before the season starts or right before the July trading deadline. As a refresher, MLBTradeRumors has reported that the Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, and Astros have all been involved in talks for Tejada this offseason.
New Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez can still be cut by March 15th, in which case Boston would owe him $500,000. The Cubs seem quite likely to give Ronny Cedeno his shot, though he’d probably be part of any package for Tejada.
The White Sox have previously offered Juan Uribe, Jose Contreras, and a prospect for Tejada, but the clubs could not agree on the last prospect. Recent word is that the team plans to wait until after the World Baseball Classic before trading Contreras. Houston has some top-notch pitching prospects in the fold, so look for them to re-enter the fray once the Clemens saga is resolved.
White Sox Payroll To Increase
I recently got word from my White Sox source, so I have some info to pass along.
He confirmed that while the Sox would indeed love to bring Abreu aboard (as would plenty of teams), there’s really nothing in the works. Kenny Williams wants pitching in return for his extra starter, but is in no hurry to trade Jose Contreras. The Sox are still in contact with Houston about him, but it’s likely that Contreras stays put at least until after the World Baseball Classic. It makes sense to play it safe given that the Sox hold all the cards. Look for Houston’s interest to escalate if Clemens ends up elsewhere or retires.
It is a fact that the payroll can and will increase as necessary. The Sox are actively pushing for a repeat and will spend more money to do it. The Sox should have at least $10MM in the coffers for any major need that may arise.
Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities
There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.
1. He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.
2. Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).
3. The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006. Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506. Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.
4. Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs. According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.
The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee. Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name. Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.
Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.
Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF. If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.
White Sox – I don’t see it. They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth. I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.
Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny. Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.
Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency. J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind. They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.
Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely. Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.
Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.
My ranking of the most likely suitors: Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs. I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.