It might not seem like it, but it was just a few years ago that Jordan Walker was a consensus top five prospect in all of baseball. Walker entered the 2023 season as a trendy Rookie of the Year pick in the NL and was widely expected to make a big impact for the Cardinals. That, of course, didn’t pan out. Walker turned in a solid but unspectacular rookie campaign where he posted a 116 wRC+ while struggling badly defensively in the outfield. He followed that up with brutal performances in 2024 and ’25, combining for a .211/.270/.324 (68 wRC+) slash line in 574 plate appearances that left him closer to the bubble of the team’s roster than the middle of the lineup.
12 games into the 2026 season, things could not be more different. The Cardinals entered the year with few expectations of competing as they embark on a rebuild that led them to trade Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Brendan Donovan over the winter. With those trades (and Lars Nootbaar beginning the year on the injured list), the Cards had plenty of room in the lineup to give Walker another shot, even in spite of his previous deep struggles. That’s paying off in a big way so far, as Walker has started to look like the player he was expected to be as a prospect. In 49 plate appearances to start the year, Walker has slashed .295/.367/.682 with a wRC+ of 191. He’s already hit five home runs this year after hitting that same number in 51 games during the 2024 season and hitting just one more across 111 games last year.
It’s hard to imagine a better start to the season than Walker has had, but it’s still fair to wonder how much of it is real. After all, 49 plate appearances is a minuscule sample. A 43-PA stretch from July 19 to July 29 last year saw Walker slash .342/.419/.500 with far less fanfare surrounding it. The same can be said of a 51-PA stretch from September 1 to September 18 in 2024, where he hit .271/.314/.583. Those short outbursts of productivity serve as cautionary tales for leaning too far into early-season small samples, and it’s certainly all but guaranteed that Walker’s numbers will come back down to Earth on at least some level in due time.
With that being said, however, it’s worth noting that the underlying metrics are a lot more confident in Walker’s performance now than they have been in the past. That aforementioned stretch from July 2025 saw Walker carry a completely unsustainable .481 BABIP. This year, by contrast, Walker has a .320 BABIP to this point that is more or less in line with his career figure of .310. His 10.2% walk rate is better than it’s ever been in his career, and his 23.3% barrel rate to this point borders on absurd. Walker’s expected batting average (.309) and slugging percentage (.712) are both even better than his actual production this year, and his .453 xwOBA largely supports his .457 wOBA.
Those are all very encouraging signs, but there are still some red flags that will need to be reckoned with. Walker’s 28.6% strikeout rate this year remains very high, and shows no signs of coming down any time soon. It’s not impossible to succeed when punching out that frequently, but it’s certainly more difficult. Of the top 30 qualified hitters in the majors last year by wRC+, just four of them had a strikeout rate north of 26%. Those four players were Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber, Byron Buxton, and Rafael Devers. All of them hit at least 35 homers, with Raleigh and Schwarber famously hitting far more than that. Buxton’s 27.3% strikeout rate led the group, and that’s more than a full point below where Walker’s currently sits.
While Walker may be on a 68-homer pace right now, it’s an open question whether he’ll be able to get into the 40-homer territory that would be necessary to make him one of the league’s top hitters by the end of the year. Of course, he doesn’t need to be among the league’s biggest stars to be a productive major leaguer. Wyatt Langford hit just 22 homers last year with a strikeout rate of 26.9%, and still posted a 118 wRC+ thanks to a high walk rate. Even Lawrence Butler‘s 2025 season, where he struck out 28.4% of the time against a 9.4% walk rate with 21 homers and a wRC+ of 96, would be a big win for Walker considering where he was entering 2026. That all feels attainable at the moment, though all it would take is one big slump for Walker’s hot start to look like yet another flash in the pan from the talented but mercurial 24-year-old.
How do MLBTR readers expect Walker’s 2026 campaign to turn out? Will he emerge as the cornerstone piece the Cardinals thought they had when he flew up prospect rankings a few years ago? Will this prove to be a blip in what otherwise winds up being another disappointing year? Or will he finish somewhere in the middle with optimism that he can be a solid regular going forward? Have your say in the poll below:
Must be a smart guy. Seem to remember he turned down Duke. Maybe he’s figuring it out.
Yes I’m a diehard Duke fan and he did I’m still like dang if him and also Evan Carter came we woulda won it all.
You can’t trick exit velocity
Doesn’t he always get off to a hot start before the inevitable face plant?
No
He did his rookie season, but not the last couple of years.
No, not even in his rookie season. He got sent back down to AAA after a cold start. It was in August and September when he did most of his damage that year.
He literally opened with a 10-game hitting streak from the fist game.🤨
His first 12 games actually, and OK, he was doing well up to that point despite having only 1 walk and 3 XBH over that span, but after his 20th game his OPS was barely above .700 (which I guess isn’t cold but disappointingly average and falling quickly) and he was sent back down to AAA due to the logjam at the time.
I was going to respond with his hitting streak to start his career, but I see you recall it. Cheers.
Definitely nothing like this before. This isn’t just him being hot, he’s completely changed the way he’s hitting into something that is looking like it’s working. How he adjusts to the league as they change their approach is where it’s going to matter.
yes and he is still only 24. Had he not already spent basically 2 years in the bigs, he would still qualify as a prospect. Albeit one that looked amazing 3 years ago but has soured a bit. IF you are an Ethan Salas Beleiver, then i think Walker is up your alley too (dominate a few years ago, but shine has really worn off).
There is a reason that guys in this mold that never panned out (travis Snider et al) still get shots at the bigs into their 30ies. If they figure it out they are beasts- and Walker is still in that mold showing signs he has figured out enough to make the profile work (enough since as noted above the strike out rate is still too high, but at least is in the “we can live with it” terretory and not the joey gallo level where no number of dingers can make up for it)
Walker’s 97.4 mph EV is crazy. I know it’s early but averaging that over even 50 PAs is solid work.
And he’s 23. That needs to be a part of this conversation.
what percentage of the top 100 prospects is he younger than?
note- he is about age appropriate for AA.
I don’t think he’ll be in the top 30 this year, but I think he’ll be a regular on that list in another year or two. He’s 23.
I can get behind that. If he can hit .260 with 25hr this year, that is the springboard he needs. He is a power first guy- so hopefully that comes with a lot of doubles we can dream turn into homers.
The poll is sending positive vibes his way at least.
He seems to be seeing the ball better. Taking breaking balls he had been flailing at the other way with some authority. Taking more walks. He looked lost at the plate most of spring training, so hopefully he can keep this up and work through the in season slumps that have plagued him for too long of periods the last couple seasons.
You’ve got him listed as 24, but he’s still 23 years old. He’s less than four months older than Wetherholt. He’s still so young, and this is a very encouraging streak he’s on. Maybe most importantly, he’s using all fields and chasing so much less.
This is technically his age 24 season because he turns 24 before June 1st.
Sure. He’s just not a “mercurial 24-year-old.”
Looking at his splits vs right-handed pitchers I would say he hasn’t proven he is necessarily going to break out. Not yet at least.
He is the 100th percentile in bat speed, there is no luck in that
Dude looks like he’s 45.
Top 30 in NL? Maybe
In game….heck no
I’d call it a hot streak for now. Check back in a couple weeks.
He’s 23 so I don’t understand why he was already considered left for dead by some people. He will probably trail off some because I just scooped him off waivers today, but his exit velocities are insane and to me that is suggestive of something real going on. I’m not going to try and guess what percentile he’ll finish in compared to the league but yes I do think we are watching his breakout.
His exit velocities have always been this though so that’s not news. What is is his launch angle and his chase rate, that is where the real change is.
He was left for dead because the coaches at the end of last year finally publicly called him out HARD for not taking the pregame prep and hitting adjustments seriously. An uncoachable player is unlikely to improve. They obviously got through to him.
Got it – I don’t follow the Cards that closely so I’m not familiar with all the details. Thanks for correcting me. I was aware he had made some swing changes over the winter so I figured that had been playing a part in him hitting the ball harder. He is definitely seeing it better than before!
did not know that- and it s good to know that it looks like the tough love is working out. He has made legitimate adjustments.
I’d say yes he’s breaking out, I definitely noticed some acne.
@fever
Careful with the B word or you’ll trigger Ben Lindbergh from Effectively Wild. You can’t really breakout if you were previously such a consensus top prospect. But I agree with everyone, those EVs are crazy.
Jordan Walker has finally figured it out. He is going to have some ups and downs but will have 30 HRs in 2026 and bat in the middle of the lineup for the whole year. I believe in his talent, hard work, and dedication to his craft! At 23, he will succeed and produce at a high level IMO! Time will tell…
Technically that’s impossible, since he started the season batting 6th before being moved up to cleanup recently. He even batted 8th for one game during the first week.
But for the rest of the season? Sure, he can pull that off.
Walker has skills. He was the #4 overall prospect going into the 2023 season. I don’t believe he is a 199 OPS+ hitter, but I think he will be an above average hitter when all is said and done this season. Maybe even better than his rookie season.
Starting a sentence with a numeral? Ouch. Ouch, ouch, ouch.
Cry
I swear when this site does polls the middle ground option always wins by a landslide
stnmf
As it probably should
I think there’s been a legit change and that his bat has taken a step forward.
Average launch and attack angles are up at career highs. He’s finally getting the ball in the air more and running a career low chase rate.
Obviously this could all fall apart if his swing gets out of whack, or pitchers start feeding him more breaking stuff, as he’s never done well against them. And his strikeout rate is probably a permanent attribute to a large extent, so there’s not a lot of room for error.
So he’s not maintaining a .682 SLG but I think it could live around .500 if changes he’s implemented stick around.
The coaches at the end of last year basically told him to get it together, so I think he took that to heart.
“What am I a mirage???”
Let’s hope he does better than Domonic Brown. Right now it’s very similar.
I feel like the ABS is also helping him this year. I haven’t seen anyone outside of Matt Carpenter get screwed by umpires as much as Walker has his whole career. He chased outside partly because they were calling balls off the plate strikes against him with regularity. Also down under the K zone. Now they cant get away with that. hes not buried with 2 strikes before he gets started.
Seiya suzuki
Until I see him do the electric Boogaloo I’m not going to share that opinion
I’m going to enjoy whatever this is.
I will hope for the best the rest of the year.
It seems like he’s FINALLY figured out his launch angle issue, so it’s going to be all about the strikeouts with this guy. If he can maintain his discipline and take away the low and away flail more often than not, he’s going be able to go after the pitches they will be forced to throw in the zone.
Could he emerge as the next star, the Cardinals will one day have no intention of paying and trade?
Don’t worry. All those Cardinal fans that thought he should start in the minors this year, and how he sucks, will be on here telling us they knew he was going to have a good year.
Aside from this past offseason, the Cardinals don’t generally trade away their stars in the free agency era. They sometimes let them walk in free agency, but they keep them up until then.
For other star players, they do pay them pretty big money like Ozzie Smith, Edmonds (only traded the last year of his additional and lesser two-year extension), Rolen (okay, they traded part of his huge contract, but they picked up Glaus’s in return), Molina, Wainwright, Chris Capenter, Matt Carpenter, Holliday, Goldschmidt, etc.
The only way he’s gonna break out is if he first drinks some of ole Grandpa’s cough medicine, Johnnie Walker Red Label before each game. No chaser.
Damn right, this is real. Watch his confidence and how he’s seeing the ball, how he’s laying off the down/away pitches he was previously stuck on. And watch how he’s driving the ball and has stopped pounding ground balls into the dirt. Kid has figured it out.
When explanations make no sense
When every answer’s wrong
You’re fighting with lost confidence
All expectations gone
The time has come to make or break
Move on, don’t hesitate
Breakout
Every poll on this site. It’s always the mediating position that wins. Every time.
The coaches and org not only called him out for not doing prep work and making adjustments enough, but I think the pressure from Joshua Baez also helped light the fire under Walker to get his act together and do what needed to be done to take the steps forward. As a Cardinals fan, I’m salivating over what this team could like in 2 to 3 years if Walker has figured it out, Baez keeps improving and any of the recent pitching draftees/trade acquisitions pan out.
Yeah, even if Scott never becomes more than a .650 OPS hitter, the Cardinals could afford that with his CF defense flanked by developing offensive stars in both corners with Walker and Baez.
He was promoted way too early. Very few 20 year old kids can handle major league pitching. Nor did he have the development at that stage. He had 4 HRs and a 32/16 K/W in only 113 AAA ABs. That’s fine production for a 20 y.o., but doesn’t mean he is ready for MLB pitching,
Actually, he went straight to the Big Leagues from AA, save for 90 PAs in the Fall League. Those AAA numbers you’re quoting are from when he was sent down to AAA after starting the season with the MLB Cardinals.
So yeah, in hindsight they probably did call him up too early, although to be fair it worked magnificently when they did practically the same thing with Albert Pujols.
However, Walker also had a pretty good overall rookie year (offensively, anyway), so it was a nasty surprise when he could no longer hit Major League pitching for the next two years and even struggled at times in AAA.
Well of course he’s going to stay hot for the series against the Sox this weekend bc why not
Is he finally breaking out?
Uhhh I dunno 🤷🏻♂️ maybe.
Is my answer as dumb as this poll?
Yes.
Seems like he is getting better, but still needs to improve average and cut down on strikeouts and walk more
His chest isn’t as puffed up as before and he’s more vertical with his back and hands a bit further back. He never looked like he could get his arms in the right position for how he previously stood plus his size. He was looking like old roided Ron Gant when he swung last year.
Now if they could only get Ivan Herrera to stop bouncing in the box so he can be balanced, maybe he’d look better too. Here is a secret to pitchers, get on the rubber so Ivan gets in his stance as early as you can. Then just make him wait as long as possible. Ivan will practically fall over before the ball is thrown if you time it right.