Brian Gunn On Walt Jocketty
Brian Gunn is a regular at Baseball Analysts and The Hardball Times, among other places. Recalling his fine "GM In A Box" piece on Walt Jocketty in the THT annual a few years back, I asked him to dispel his wisdom once again on the Cards ex-GM back in October of 2007. An excerpt of his piece follows.
WALT JOCKETTY
By Brian Gunn
New Reds GM Walt Jocketty was a big-game hunter with the Cardinals. He generally looked elsewhere for talent, and he landed some of the biggest names around. Here’s a brief look at his legacy.
JOCKETTY’S STRENGTHS
Jocketty built arguably the premier National League franchise of this decade. Since 2000, the Cardinals own more regular-seasons wins than any other NL team, won more playoff games, won more league titles, and, of course, won it all in 2006.
How did Jocketty do it? First of all, he was fearless. A master wheeler-dealer, nobody did a better job turning lemons into lemonade, often flipping questionable talent for marquee players.
Consider:
Jocketty landed, via trade, Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria, Darryl Kile, Scott Rolen, Dennis Eckersley, Todd Stottlemyre, Fernando Vina, Larry Walker, Will Clark, Adam Wainwright, and Woody Williams.
Here are the most notable players he gave up to get them: Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, Kent Bottenfield, Adam Kennedy, Braden Looper, Pablo Ozuna, Manny Aybar, Jose Jimenez, Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, Steve Montgomery, Jay Witasick, Juan Acevedo, Chris Narveson, Jose Leon, one year of J.D. Drew, and the waning days of Ray Lankford’s career.
It’s an astonishing haul. Generally Jocketty would use the same formula: go after some established but underappreciated star, give up a few middling prospects for him, let him soak in the cozy St. Louis fan experience, win ballgames, re-sign the guy to an extension (often with a hometown discount), win more ballgames, then repeat the whole process as one big feedback loop. Jocketty was a master at that (and he was probably the best trading-deadline dealer there ever was – that’s how he got McGwire, Clark, Williams, Rolen, Walker, Chuck Finley, and Fernando Tatis).
Jocketty’s other big strength? Cobbling together a pitching staff on the cheap. It took him a while to get the hang of it – Cards’ hurlers in the ‘90s were usually awful. But Jocketty, along with rehab specialists Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, were able to buy low for arms like Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and Darryl Kile, and let them succeed in front of those reliable St. Louis infielders. At its best it worked beautifully. For example, in 2005 the Cards led the majors in ERA with a starting rotation that cost, altogether, $17 million – or less than what Roger Clemens alone made that year.
JOCKETTY’S WEAKNESSES
He was never that great at developing talent from within. Oh sure, he had his moments – he drafted and signed both Rick Ankiel and J.D. Drew when other teams wouldn’t touch ‘em for fear of being out-negotiated by Scott Boras. And of course, Jocketty was responsible for Albert Pujols, merely the best player in the league, if not all of baseball. But by and large the Cards’ cupboard ran rather bare during the Jocketty years. Baseball America has recently ranked them near the bottom of all major-league farm systems, and the Cards have been especially weak locating talent overseas. Perhaps that’s the flipside of Jocketty’s wheeling-and-dealing prowess – it gave him a sense that the team didn’t need to develop from within in order to succeed.
Jocketty’s other big weakness was that he tended to construct rather shallow rosters. Often the ballclub would be led by big shots like Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, while the margins were raggedy at best. Cards fans no doubt remember some of the team’s biggest playoff games left in the hands of shlubs like Craig Paquette, Garrett Stephenson, or Jason Marquis. To be fair, however, Jocketty improved in this area over the last couple years. The Cards’ bench and bullpen were among the best in the league this past year, and role players were crucial to winning the World Series in 2006.
JOCKETTY’S BEST MOVE
Landing McGwire was a masterstroke that rejuvenated the franchise, but I’d still go with the trade of Bottenfield and Kennedy to the Angels for Jim Edmonds. In 1999 Bottenfield was an 18-game winner while Edmonds was an underperformer clouded by “character issues.” But Jocketty noticed that Bottenfield’s peripherals were weak, Edmonds were strong, and he moved on a deal. Kennedy ended up a dependable starter in Anaheim, but Edmonds ended up the best centerfielder in baseball for a number of years.
JOCKETTY’S WORST MOVE
I can still remember December 18, 2004, when the Cards traded starter Danny Haren, reliever Kiko Calero, and hitting prodigy Daric Barton for Mark Mulder. As others have pointed out (I can’t remember where), Calero for Mulder straight-up would’ve been a poor deal for the Cards, to say nothing of losing Haren and Barton. When I first heard the news I became literally sick to my stomach, and the feeling hasn’t quite gone away.
Reds Fire Wayne Krivsky
The Reds gave the axe to GM Wayne Krivsky today, replacing him with Walt Jocketty. It was a short stint – Krivsky was hired in February of 2006. The move itself isn’t a shock; it’s just surprising timing.
Notable moves during Krivsky’s tenure:
- 2-12-06: Scott Hatteberg signed to a one-year, $750K deal.
- 2-13-06: Adam Dunn signed to two-year, $18.5MM extension.
- 3-20-06: Acquired Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena.
- 3-21-06: Acquired David Ross for Bobby Basham.
- 4-7-06: Acquired Brandon Phillips for Jeff Stevens.
- 5-26-06: Traded Cody Ross to Marlins for a player to be named later.
- June ’06: Selected Drew Stubbs eighth overall in draft.
- 7-6-06: Acquired Eddie Guardado for Travis Chick.
- 7-13-06: Acquired Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, and Daryl Thompson for Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner.
- 7-26-06: Signed Hatteberg to a one-year, $1.65MM extension.
- 7-31-06: Acquired Rheal Cormier for Justin Germano.
- 7-31-06: Acquired Kyle Lohse for Zach Ward.
- 8-7-06: Acquired Ryan Franklin for a player to be named later.
- 8-16-06: Acquired Scott Schoeneweis for a player to be named later.
- 8-28-06: Signed Javier Valentin to a one-year, $1.325MM extension.
- 9-25-06: Signed Juan Castro to a two-year, $2MM extension.
- 11-20-06: Signed Alex Gonzalez to a three-year, $14MM contract.
- 11-20-06: Signed Mike Stanton to a two-year, $5.5MM contract.
- 11-20-06: Traded Jason LaRue to the Royals for a player to be named later.
- 12-7-06: Acquired Josh Hamilton for cash.
- 12-7-06: Selected Jared Burton in Rule 5 draft.
- 12-12-06: Signed David Weathers to a two-year, $5MM contract.
- 1-2-07: Traded Brendan Harris to Rays for cash.
- 1-10-07: Acquired Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger.
- 2-6-07: Signed Aaron Harang to a four-year, $36.5MM extension.
- 2-8-07: Signed Bronson Arroyo to a two-year, $25MM extension.
- 4-16-07: Signed Ryan Freel to a two-year, $7MM extension.
- 4-27-07: Traded Chris Denorfia to A’s for Marcus McBeth and another player.
- 5-9-07: Released Rheal Cormier (can’t hold Cormier against Krivsky).
- June ’07: Selected Devin Mesoraco 15th overall in draft.
- 10-31-07: Exercised ’08 options on Hatteberg, Dunn, and Valentin.
- 11-28-07: Signed Francisco Cordero to a four-year, $46MM contract.
- 12-21-07: Acquired Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera for Josh Hamilton.
- 1-23-08: Signed Jeremy Affeldt to a one-year, $3MM contract.
- 2-15-08: Signed Brandon Phillips to a four-year, $27MM extension.
- 2-21-08: Signed Josh Fogg to a one-year, $1MM contract.
- 3-3-08: Signed Corey Patterson to a one-year, $3MM contract.
- 4-8-08: Released Mike Stanton.
Looking back on Krivsky’s moves, he did a fine job. While many of his small free agent moves were poor, he made many shrewd trades and smart extensions.
Odds and Ends: Burrell, Pedro, Fukudome
Today’s link collection.
- Jon Heyman notes that Pat Burrell only wanted to go to the Yankees or Red Sox when the Phillies tried to trade him a few years ago. They’re not great fits, but perhaps Burrell will have those two clubs at the top of his list when he hits free agency.
- Ross Newhan looks at the Dodgers’ trade of Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields. He rates it the worst in franchise history. He also names the Brad Penny acquisition as the fourth-worst.
- Josh Kalk takes a look at Kosuke Fukudome‘s hot start for RotoAuthority.
- The Dodgers and Juan Castro have mutual interest.
Juan Castro Designated For Assignment
Tony Jackson of the L.A. Daily News notes that the Reds have designated shortstop Juan Castro for assignment. This should make room for Jerry Hairston Jr. while giving the Reds ten days to shop Castro.
Castro is a 35 year-old all-glove, no-hit type. The Reds owe him $975K this year plus a $100K buyout for ’09. I imagine any interested party will wait the ten days so that the Reds pay the contract.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Adam Dunn
Adam Dunn will be a free agent after this season. So it’s a safe bet that Dunn is going to have a career year and will cash in this winter, right? Not so fast.
Dunn, who has hit exactly 40 home runs in each of the past three seasons, has only two so far. But that’s not what makes Dunn’s 2008 start so interesting.
This season, Dunn’s OBP is a robust .418, but his batting average is an anemic .191. How do we account for this dichotomy? Quite simply, Dunn has walked more than usual. So far, he’s walked 19 times in 47 at bats. He’s on pace to walk 211 times, assuming he gets as many at bats as last season (522).
Amazingly, that wouldn’t break the record for most walks in a season, which was set by Barry Bonds in 2004. But it would still be a remarkable feat, especially considering 120 of Bonds’ walks were intentional, and Dunn has yet to be intentionally walked this month.
Of course, we’re getting ahead of ourselves. This is a very small sample size we’re talking about. More than likely, Dunn’s walk rate will taper off.
But what if Dunn keeps walking at this rate? Here’s how The Hardball Times describes Bill James’ theory that an increased walk rate signals decreased hitting, via Fox Sports:
In his 1986 Baseball Abstract, Bill James postulated that when a player experienced a sudden spike in walk rate one year, it would often be followed by a substantial drop in batting average the following year. According to James, taking a base on balls is a "veteran player skill" because it involves an older ballplayer compensating for slower reflexes and bat speed. But, James reasoned, the increase in walks will result in a decrease in batting average because the pitchers will adjust and will begin to make the hitters hit good pitches.
Could Dunn be nearing the twilight of his career? He seems a little young to be winding down already. On the other hand, Andruw Jones‘ batting average fell off a cliff when he turned 29, and Dunn turns 29 in November. So never say never.
If Dunn keeps on walking, how will it affect his contract negotiations? Your guess is as good as mine. But count on Dunn making at least as much as Pat Burrell, who is also a below average outfielder with high OBP and 30 HR power. Tim recently speculated that Burrell should land a contract in the neighborhood of $60 million over four years. Both Burrell and Dunn could benefit from a move to the AL, where they could DH.
Coley Ward writes for Umpbump.com. You can reach him here.
Odds and Ends: Hatteberg, Colon, Longoria
And now for more Odds and Ends around the league:
- In his latest "Full Count" audio piece at Fox Sports, Ken Rosenthal expects the Reds to do some roster shuffling that could come down to trades. Scott Hatteberg has become "expendable" with the recent emergence of Joey Votto and by the fact that the Reds have too many lefty hitters.
- Cork Gaines latest Baseball Blogs Weigh In delved into the Evan Longoria signing. To add to that, Ken Rosenthal, also in his Full Count piece, notes favorably that Longoria has set himself for life without having to establish himself and that his payday will come at age 31, still in time for a 4-5 year deal.
- The Boston Herald’s reporting Bartolo Colon could opt to leave the Red Sox if he’s not in the bigs by May 1st. Manager Terry Francona hopes he will "forego the decision for a while (most likely until May 15)." With a recent setback being the reason he’s not in the majors, I don’t see him going anywhere just yet.
- An amusing quote from columnist John Mehno of the Beaver County Times on whether the Pirates can be expected to lock up any of its young talent: "Given the lack of can’t-miss prospects in the system, Pirates rookies intent on becoming instant millionaires should probably keep buying lottery tickets."
By Nat Boyle
Reds Interested In Piazza?
WEDNESDAY: Hal McCoy ran this one by Dusty, who implied that he hasn’t had any discussions about Piazza specifically. Meanwhile Fay says the Reds have "mild interest" in his latest article.
TUESDAY: This morning, Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball wrote that Reds manager Dusty Baker expected his team to sign free agent catcher Mike Piazza. Reds beat writer John Fay checked in on the rumor, and it he didn’t get a denial. Whether or not Piazza is the target, the Reds are looking for catching help and/or a right-handed bench bat.
Piazza, 39, hit .275/.313/.414 in 83 games last year. He earned $8.5MM from the A’s and didn’t catch at all. A shoulder injury knocked him out for much of the season, and he cleared waivers in August. The A’s offered him arbitration after the season, which he declined. They stand to snag a supplemental draft pick if he signs with the Reds. This winter we heard rumblings about retirement, the Rays, or even Japan for Piazza.
Odds and Ends: Schilling, Piazza, Howard
Tax day roundup…
- Some mild drama over whether Curt Schilling would consider pitching for the Yankees next year. He reiterated that he won’t. It takes two to tango, anyway.
- Pedro Martinez may be out until June. Nelson Figueroa‘s chance continues, with Claudio Vargas as the backup plan. The Mets still have a solid rotation without Pedro.
- Mark Healey has heard rumblings that the Reds and Yankees are looking at Mike Piazza.
- Phillies Nation on why they would trade Ryan Howard.
- Bill Barnwell looks at the four trades Randy Johnson trades. I thought the Unit looked respectable last night, though it’s hard to gauge against the Giants.
- Susan Slusser believes a recent roster move indicates that the A’s are playing to win in ’08. They’re in first place at the moment.
- The Dodgers rolled out the red carpet for bloggers.
Rumor Royalty: John Fay (Reds)
John Fay covers the Reds beat for the Cincinnati Enquirer. John also has a popular Reds blog. He kindly answered some MLBTR reader questions today for our Rumor Royalty series.
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MLBTR: How do you perceive the relationship between Wayne Krivsky and Walt Jocketty?
Fay: On the surface, everything is fine, but I don’t see what happens behind closed doors. I think if the Reds win this year, you could very well see the arrangement continue. Jocketty said as much when I did a story about the two this spring.
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MLBTR: Any idea what the Reds offered for Joe Blanton and/or Erik Bedard?
Fay: Baltimore wanted Jay Bruce, the Reds weren’t going to do that. I believe they offered a package that included Homer Bailey and Joey Votto, plus a third player. I think the A’s wanted Johnny Cueto and the Reds never seriously considered that.
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MLBTR: Do you think the catching concerns with Dave Ross and Javier Valentin will lead to a trade? If so, any ideas who Krivsky might favor?
Fay: The Reds were and probably still are pursuing a catcher. The thing that complicates it a bit is how well Paul Bako‘s worked with Cueto and Edinson Volquez. I think Bako stays on the club when Ross comes off the DL. Valentin will strictly be used a pinch-hitter/emergency catcher. Catching is so thin around baseball that there aren’t many options. The only name I’ve heard mentioned is Gerald Laird from Texas.
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MLBTR: Do you expect Ken Griffey Jr. and/or Adam Dunn to be traded this year?
Fay: It depends on where the Reds are as far as contention when the trading deadline approaches. If the Reds are out of it, they’d be silly not to move them. I still think there’s a good chance they’ll extend Dunn’s contract. But, again, that depends somewhat on how he plays and the teams plays.
Rumor Royalty: John Fay
Rumor Royalty’s been in a bit of a hibernation lately, but we’re bringing it back for the Reds. Beat writer John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer gets the nod; he’s kindly agreed to answer a few questions. John’s blog can be found here.
If you’ve got Reds hot stove questions for John, fire away in the comments. I will pick a few and send them over.