Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Bruce, Longoria
Yesterday Rob Neyer of ESPN.com wrote about the fates of Baseball America’s top two prospects, Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria. While Bruce start the season in the minors, Neyer notes that the Reds could be a playoff contender if Bruce and Joey Votto receive 1,000 plate appearances. On the other hand, a decision has yet be made on where Longoria will start the season. Neyer feels that the Rays may wish that Longoria was not playing so well in Spring Training. He thinks the Rays should forgo the potential savings of keeping him in the minors and buy some goodwill with the fans by showing them that the team is serious about winning.
Keeping top prospects in the minors to begin the season is likely to become a growing trend. Decisions in both of the above cases may at least in part be based on future arbitration and free agency eligibility. A team can delay free agency by just postponing a player’s debut a few weeks. And as arbitration figures continue to rise, team’s can delay the start of the arbitration clock by waiting until June to promote a prospect. Last season the Brewers accomplished this with their top prospect Ryan Braun by waiting until May 24th to promote him to the majors. In doing so, Braun will not be eligible for arbitration until after the 2010 season.
Let’s take a look at what is being written about Bruce and Longoria in the Blogosphere…
- Redleg Nation understands starting Bruce in AAA, but laments the idea of having Corey Patterson batting leadoff. They worry that this confirms the belief that Dusty Baker prefers veterans even if they are less talented.
- Red Reporter is split on the issue of Bruce noting that the issue is not as clear as we would like it to be. They also wonder if the Reds are staggering the debuts of their prospects so their arbitration and free agency clocks are also staggered.
- Bugs & Cranks wonders if the Reds had already decided Bruce’s fate even before bringing Patterson on board, for the sole purpose of delaying Bruce’s arbitration clock.
- At Fanhouse, Pat Lackey tries to justify the demotion of Bruce, noting that he may be better off developing under the tutelage of somebody other than Baker, getting more experience and delaying his arbitration clock.
- On the other hand, Eamonn Brennan of Fanhouse thinks any team not managed by Baker would have kept Bruce on the roster.
- Rays of Light notes that Longoria’s future teammates may not be happy if he is demoted. Rays of Light wouldn’t be happy with a demotion but they understand the reasoning.
- Outs Per Swing notes that if Longoria is demoted, Willy Aybar will start at third. They do not believe that Aybar’s recent hamstring issues will have an effect on the team’s decision regarding Longoria.
- Sports Indeed notes that Longoria is receiving a lot of playing time in the spring and wonders if this is an indication that he will be on the opening day roster.
- Rays Index predicts a May 26 debut for Longoria based on his arbitration clock.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Lofton Turned Down Two Offers
Kenny Lofton tells Ken Rosenthal, "age ain’t nothing but a number." However, he feels that his age (41 in May) is the reason he’s not getting offers he deems acceptable this winter. He’s turned down two offers: a minor league one from the Reds and a Major League one from the Rays in excess of $1MM.
Rosenthal suggests Lofton may retire, which would be a shame. I don’t think fans would think less of Lofton if he played for a million or two; most wouldn’t even know his salary. As a part-time player with suspect defense, does he really deserve more? Maybe it was last year’s $6MM salary that was out of line.
Lofton says his hands are tied. But the reality is that his pride, rather than a lack of interest in his services, could lead to his retirement.
Reds Seek Catching Help
John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer is hearing a rumor that the Reds are "actively seeking a catcher." He speculates that Ryan Freel could be trade bait.
Fay’s note conveniently gels with some info from a Jeff Brantley radio appearance that a reader passed along. Brantley reportedly said the Reds have been scouting the Rangers’ Gerald Laird. On a not necessarily related note, Brantley also mentioned that they may look to trade Matt Belisle.
MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan recently wrote that the Rangers don’t intend to trade Laird despite some interest. On the other hand, Jon Daniels admitted in Sullivan’s article that he wouldn’t turn a deaf ear to anything. Laird is set to be the Rangers’ starting catcher this year. Jarrod Saltalamacchia would take on a smaller role or try Triple A.
The Reds could also consider trying to acquire San Diego’s Michael Barrett, who has played under Dusty Baker with the Cubs. Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez may also be available.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Rule 5 Draftees
Last year the Reds selected Josh Hamilton in the Rule 5 draft despite only 23 games above Single-A and only 15 games anywhere since 2002 (actually the Cubs picked Hamilton and traded him to the Reds the same day). Hamilton went on to hit .292-19-47 in 90 games. This year, 18 players were chosen in the Rule 5 draft (14 pitchers). These players must remain on the 25-man roster all season or be offered back to their original club for $25K. By my count, three players (Sergio Valenzuela, Lincoln Holdzkom, Jose Capellan) have already been offered back to their original clubs (Capellan was picked up on waivers by a third team during the process). Hamilton is the rare case of a position player sticking with his new club as it is far easier to hide a developing pitcher and still get him playing time in the bullpen than it is on the bench.While it is rare for position players to stick, we have already learned that the Cardinals may keep Brian Barton as a fifth outfielder. As opening day rosters begin to take shape, let’s take a look at what is being said in the Blogosphere about the chances for the Rule draftees.
- Tim Lahey (RHP, CHC/MIN): Bleed Cubbie Blue sees the Cubs working out a trade with the Twins that would allow them to send Lahey to AAA. In fact, they speculate that Lahey will be the PTBNL in the Craig Monroe deal.
- Evan Meek (RHP, PIT/TB): Bucs Dugout predicts that Meek will at least start the season with the Pirates before being offered back to the Rays.
- Randor Bierd (RHP, BAL/DET): Bird Brain projects Bierd to make the roster and hopes the O’s give him every chance to stick.
- Jose Capellan (LHP, CIN/BOS): Capellan was originally selected by the Giants but was just placed on waivers. The Reds picked him up (Rule 5 rules still apply) and Obsessive Giants Compulsive is surprised the Giants let him go.
- Sergio Valenzuela (RHP, CIN/ATL): Valenzuela was sold back to the Braves after not making a single appearance in a spring game. The Braves then traded Valenzuela to a team in the Mexican League. Which begs the question…Are "future considerations" from the Mexican League worth the $25K the Braves dropped to bring him back? Talking Chop finds the entire situation funny and is not surprised that Valenzuela did not stick with the Reds.
- Brian Barton (OF, STL/CLE): Cardinals GM is predicting Barton to be on the opening day roster with Juan Gonzalez starting the season in AAA.
- R.A. Dickey (RHP, SEA/MIN): Detect-O-Vision is infatuated with the knuckleballer but notes that Dickey "has a looooooooooong way to go".
- Steven Register (RHP, NYM/COL): Mets Fever thinks Register might actually stick by earning the final spot in the bullpen.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Gammons’ Latest: Bailey, Crisp, Giants
ESPN’s Peter Gammons posted to his blog yesterday; let’s take a look.
- More negative vibes around the Reds’ Homer Bailey. His apparent availability seems odd given his talent. Bailey was described by an evaluator friend of Buster Olney as "someone who thinks he’s got it all figured out."
- Gammons likes the fit of Barry Bonds in Seattle, but sees Jeff Clement as the team’s DH in the event that Richie Sexson starts to repeat his ’07.
- The A’s still like Coco Crisp, but the Red Sox want young catching and/or pitching that the A’s would prefer to keep. Susan Slusser wrote on Saturday that talks between the two clubs had revived.
- Giants scouts are apparently handing out a list to other teams with almost a dozen available players (basically all the veterans). The Giants currently have nine pitchers vying for three bullpen spots.
Rays Likely To Fill Outfield Void Through Trade
According to Marc Lancaster, the Rays would prefer to fill their need for a fourth outfielder via trade as opposed to signing a free agent such as Kenny Lofton.
Lancaster notes the Rays are likely to offer one of their surplus of starting pitchers. The Rays have five pitchers competing for the final two spots in the rotation and two of those pitchers (Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel) are out of options. In addition Lancaster mentions that the Rays have a number of pitching prospects at AA and AAA that could be included in a deal.
The Rays would prefer a player that in addition to regular playing time in right field, can serve as a backup to center fielder BJ Upton. Lancaster lists several players that match this description including Juan Rivera, Reggie Willits, Coco Crisp, Reed Johnson and Ryan Freel. Ken Rosenthal previously said that Willits is untouchable, and Crisp and Johnson seem unlikely as trades rarely occur within a division. The Reds seem like the best fit of this group as they have been rumored to be active in the trade market this off-season for a starting pitcher.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Freel Could Be Traded
Hal McCoy of the Hamilton Journal-News notes that superutility man Ryan Freel is in a precarious position in Cincinnati. The Reds don’t have a major need for him; he makes $3MM this year and $4MM in ’09. McCoy and Freel have both heard trade rumblings.
The best part about Freel’s availability is that the Frofton monster could still be created. Back in mid-December I wrote:
Here’s the kicker of my plan: pair Kenny Lofton with Ryan Freel. Freel couldn’t touch lefties last year but the two previous years he had OBPs over .400 against them. Taking Lofton’s ’07 vs. righties and Freel’s ’06 vs. lefties and creating one hybrid Frofton Monster, you get a .311/.394/.444 hitter. Even better, Freel can help out at second base when righties are on the hill.
This plan was devised for the White Sox pre-Swisher, and I conceded that it didn’t pay much attention to defense at a key position. So it’s not without its flaws. But I still contend that Freel and Lofton could make a very solid offensive platoon. Plus you get the midget in Freel’s head, Farney. The problem is that teams have mostly settled their center field situations and don’t have two free roster spots. Still seems like Freel alone could fit in with the Sox.
Odds and Ends: Thames, Sosa, Inge, Crisp
Here’s today’s link roundup.
- MetsBlog passes along a Jon Heyman WFAN appearance tidbit. The SI.com writer said the Mets and Tigers are discussing a Marcus Thames for Jorge Sosa swap. Thames definitely fits the Mets’ needs, though Sosa seems a little light for him.
- I did a fantasy baseball mailbag for Hardball Times.
- Brandon Inge tries to explain his comments about catching.
- John Smoltz has advice for Cole Hamels.
- Nice to see a popular player legitimately spending time to sign fan mail.
- Buster Olney says the Red Sox and A’s are still discussing Coco Crisp.
- Olney also notes that "talent evaluators say the Reds have demonstrated a clear willingness to deal Homer Bailey."
Reds Sign Corey Patterson
According to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds have signed 28 year-old center fielder Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. Patterson, a Boras client, makes for a surprising bargain with a dash of upside. He happened to reach free agency in an offseason with a center field surplus. He’s reunited with former Cubs manager Dusty Baker, who some say mishandled Patterson at times. Fay believes this takes Kenny Lofton off the table for Cincy.
The Reds are calling it a center field competition, but Patterson will probably get the gig. This will allow the Reds to keep Jay Bruce in the minors until June and delay his future free agency by a year.
The Reds also inked another former Cub, Jerry Hairston Jr. He may have a hard time making the team, but his versatility could help.
Odds and Ends: Ponson, Inge, Papelbon
Let’s round up some Monday morning links.
- The Cardinals are taking another look at Sidney Ponson. Insert your own punchline in the comments.
- Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun could see the O’s making a minor trade for a veteran second baseman if they acquire Ronny Cedeno but not Eric Patterson in a Brian Roberts deal with the Cubs.
- Brandon Inge is trying his best to talk his way out of town. The Dodgers’ recently reported nibble hasn’t been publicly shot down, so that’s a plus.
- South Side Sox thinks speedy infielder Eugenio Velez is the type of player the White Sox could desire for Joe Crede.
- Jonathan Papelbon wants $900K in his last year before arbitration eligibility. Ryan Howard set a scary precedent last year. If Papelbon doesn’t get offered something close, he’d rather make a statement and be renewed near the minimum.
- Buster Olney suggests Dan Johnson and Doug Mientkiewicz could be possibilities for the Mets in their quest for a backup first baseman. Olney speculated on Nick Johnson, Scott Hatteberg, Richie Sexson, Tony Clark, and Kevin Millar the day before.