A’s Acquire Chris Denorfia
According to Reds beat writer John Fay, the Athletics have acquired 26 year-old outfielder Chris Denorfia from the Reds for two players to be named later and cash. Denorfia is out for the season due to Tommy John surgery.
One might think 25 year-old Rule 5 power reliever Jared Burton would be involved in the deal, but that is not the case. Fay asked Wayne Krivsky specifically about that. Just playing matchmaker, but maybe one of the two players is starter Brad Halsey? He certainly wants out, and he’s had moderate success in the NL before. Fay also mentioned that the A’s have been interested in Denorfia since spring training and that another trade might be in the cards.
As for Denorfia, he doesn’t have any real weaknesses, but no overwhelming strengths either. (According to Baseball America). He could play center field for the A’s next year, or serve as a fine fourth outfielder. The results have been there – Denorfia hit .349/.409/.484 in Triple A last year. That translates to above average offense for a CF in the Majors.
2008 MLB Free Agents: Kyle Lohse
I’m sure we’ll revisit this after the season. But on a slow trade rumor day, let’s take a closer look at a free agent pitcher who could cash in after this season: Kyle Lohse. It sounds absurd to say that about a guy who posted a 5.83 ERA last year, but Lohse might be primed for a three year, $24MM contract.
Lohse was never ranked among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects. But as a 20 year-old pitching well in High A ball, he was enough to snag the Cubs a closer from the Twins in Rick Aguilera. The need had surfaced for Chicago after Rod Beck came down with bone spurs in his elbow.
So Lohse became a Twin, and initially struggled to master Double A. It didn’t matter, as he was very young for his levels and reached the Majors in ’01 as a 22 year-old. He didn’t fare well in his 16 starts, though his command wasn’t bad.
Lohse won the Twins’ fifth starter job out of camp in ’02, beating out Johan Santana among others. He had a fine year, winning 13 games with a 4.23 ERA. Lohse even tossed five scoreless postseason relief innings.
2003 was more of the same – 33 starts, 14 wins, and a strong 1.27 WHIP. His propensity to allow home runs kept his ERA in the mid 4s, but it was still a good year. A five win season, according to Baseball Prospectus.
He added a sinker in 2004, but it didn’t help his home run rate. That worsened; his strikeout rate continued to drop, his control wasn’t great, and he allowed tons of hits. Lohse made 34 starts but posted a 5.34 ERA.
That winter he reached arbitration for the first time. No agreement could be reached, so a hearing was conducted. Lohse was the winner and snagged $2.4MM despite coming off his worst season.
His first possible serious injury surfaced in ’05, as he felt shoulder stiffness in April. The MRI came up clean and it turned out to be a non-issue. He pitched tolerably in the first half, generating talks of a swap to the Blue Jays for Shea Hillenbrand.
The trade didn’t happen. In September of that year, Lohse badmouthed Ron Gardenhire in the media and also punched several clubhouse doors, injuring his finger temporarily. The two sides made amends, but the finger injury lingered a bit.
That winter, Lohse again went to arbitration with the Twins and beat them, winning $3.95MM. It wasn’t a bad year – a 4.18 ERA in 30 starts.
In the spring of 2006, Lohse scrapped his curve to go with only his fastball, changeup, and slider. Somehow, he earned a rotation spot over Francisco Liriano out of camp. The new approach didn’t work – Lohse was awful in April and earned a trip to Triple A. He was angered by the demotion, but pitched well in four starts. The Mets, Red Sox, and other clubs expressed interest. He returned to the Twins in June and worked as a reliever, posting a 4.44 ERA out of the pen in 26 innings.
Twin-loving Reds GM Wayne Krivsky traded for Lohse at the deadline, giving up prospect Zach Ward. So far in 14 National League starts, Lohse has found the league very much to his liking. His strikeout rate is way up, and his command looks great. Is it a first-time-around-the-league mirage? We’ll need more data to be sure, but many pitchers have rejuvenated their careers in the NL.
As far as I can tell, Lohse has a decent repertoire. He is said to throw harder than Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang, and his manager raves about his changeup. Reds pitching coach Dick Pole loves his stuff. He finally avoided arbitration as a Red, as seems to enjoy it there. Lohse considers the American League "Arena Baseball," so he probably won’t be going back.
Lohse doesn’t turn 29 until October, making him one of the younger free agent pitchers out there. He also has a fine health history. Lohse’s next contract should fall somewhere between Jason Marquis‘s 3/21 and Gil Meche‘s 5/55. It’s not inconceivable that Lohse could get $8-10MM annually and three years. Given his age, a team might even have to add a fourth year to win his services.
Reds Extend Ryan Freel
According to MLB.com, the Reds have signed Ryan Freel to a contract extension through 2009. The deal covers his arbitration years, so he’ll still become a free agent in 2010 as originally scheduled. He’ll make $7MM for 2008-09, a fine price for Cincinnati.
Freel failed to break through with the Blue Jays and Devil Rays, and both clubs chose not to re-sign him. The Reds finally gave him a shot and he’s shown great speed with a strong walk rate.
It’s tough to put a price on a player like Freel, a useful guy who plays 2B, 3B, and all outfield spots. Plenty of teams have a player like this but most don’t get on base like Freel (.367 career OBP). At his press conference today, Freel talked about how he’s happy to play infield to give Josh Hamilton more ABs. He described Hamilton as a "game-changing guy" and the most talented on the team.
Dunn Changing Minds
The grip that batting average seems to have on people is undeniable. I’m not trying to sound snarky here; I just think it’s crazy that hitting .380 for a week may be changing the public sentiment about Adam Dunn.
Lonnie Wheeler of the Cincinnati Post seems to be saying that Dunn’s strikeouts are…unprofessional. But I really don’t think it’s a lack of diligence or effort. Dunn just has an all-or-nothing style, which is easy to rag on when he’s going bad (his last two months of 2006 were awful).
A lot of players can post an unusually high batting average over a month or two’s time. David Newhan made a career out of a nice stretch in 2004. I still think Dunn’s going to hit .250 or so this year. He’s made contact in 71% of his ABs this year, as opposed to 65% last year and 69% the year before. All signs point toward regression, even with Brook Jacoby around.
Regardless of his batting average, I think Dunn’s $13MM option for 2008 is a no-brainer. PECOTA feels the same. But will Wayne Krivsky and the Cincinnati media agree? If not, Dunn could be traded this summer.
Last Minute Trade Talks Left Some Rosters Short
At least two teams entered yesterday’s Opening Day with only twenty-four players on their roster, one short of the maximum allowed. Both the Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds were hoping that a last-minute trade would bring quality relievers to fill the final spots, but when nothing materialized, both elected to add players already in the fold.
The Phillies added Joe Bisenius to their final spot, a hard-throwing right-hander who has never pitched above AA Reading, where he had 33 strike outs in 23 and a third innings and many in the Phillies organization see him as the closer of the future. If the 24-year old pitches well on 2007, he could become the long-sought after set-up man the team needs.
The Reds turned to Victor Santos, a 31-year old journeyman who can pitch out of long relief or the rotation. Santos has a weakness for the long-ball, so manager Jerry Narron may want to reduce his appearances at home.
Expect both teams to continue looking for late-inning relief either through trades or the waiver wire.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".
Pineiro On The Block?
The Boston Herald reports that scouts from several teams have been monitoring 28 year-old former starter Joel Pineiro. He and his $4MM+ salary may be deemed expendable by the Red Sox with Papelbon closing.
The Globe’s Jeff Horrigan mentions the Reds as a good fit, as their bullpen remains questionable. I believe that newly signed free agents have trade veto power for at least the first few months, but I can’t find the exact rule in writing yet. If Pineiro can get himself over to the NL on a team with an open closing situation (Giants, Marlins?) he should jump at the chance.
UPDATE: A guy who would know dropped me a line – a player cannot be traded within six months of signing. He doesn’t believe it’s a veto thing; it just isn’t allowed. The Red Sox signed Pineiro around January 4th, so I’m not sure how this would work.
UPDATE 2: Another fellow told me that if a newly signed free agent is to be traded before June 15th, he must give his permission. That is the only restriction.
Reds, Marlins Interested In Benitez
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the Marlins and Reds are the two clubs currently interested in Giants reliever Armando Benitez. This is the first word of Cincinnati’s interest.
Benitez has been looking good this spring and is pitching with confidence. One report last week said the Giants would eat all but a million bucks of his salary, but another said the Giants would eat less than half. If the latter is accurate then the Marlins may not want to be involved. I really think their internal options are just as good as Benitez.
Reds Sign Dustin Hermanson
RotoWorld is reporting that the Reds signed 34 year-old reliever Dustin Hermanson to add to their stable of low-velocity veterans in the pen. Hermanson’s magical 34 save fluke season for the ’05 world champs could earn him some save opps with the Reds when his back allows him to pitch (fantasy alert!) Jerry Narron called him a "bona fide closer" earlier this month.
Past reports showed all sorts of teams (Phillies, D-Rays, Yankees) passing on Hermanson after reviewing his medical records or watching him pitch.
Adam Dunn’s 2008 Option
This time of year we hear a lot about guys entering their walk years or guys with questionable team options for 2008. Is Adam Dunn one such player?
The Reds have a $13MM option on him for ’08. Obviously, they’ll take the wait and see approach after Dunn slipped to .234/.365/.490 last year. PECOTA thinks he’ll bounce all the way back to .267/.390/.574 this season.
For ’08, they have him hitting .267/.398/.581, perhaps his peak season at age 28. He could be worth $18MM according to BP’s projection system. Unless Dunn completely flops this season, the option should be exercised. Even if he reaches the midpoint of his projection and ’06 performance, it’s probably a smart move. How many teams wouldn’t sign Dunn for one year and $13MM?
As far as Reds of the future, Jay Bruce will probably end up in right and Joey Votto at first. That still leaves room for Dunn and his 40+ HRs in left.
Relievers Find Homes (or not)
More minor league deals:
Cliff Politte has signed with the Indians. I would imagine he’ll start the year in Triple-A, but as veteran insurance for a 11th or 12th pitcher goes, teams could do a lot worse.
Kerry Lightenberg has signed with the Reds. He’ll also probably end up in Triple-A, and he’s an example of how teams could do worse than Politte.
Dustin Hermanson tried out for several teams, but the Phillies were unimpressed. That leaves the Reds. If you want to do worse than Politte or Lightenberg…well, here’s your man. Wayne Krivsky, get on the phone!
By Jeff Sackmann
www.BrewCrewBall.com