Scouting The Reds
The chatter regarding Reds’ left fielder Adam Dunn is picking up, and it’s only June 13th. It’s looking more and more like we can add Dunn to our 2008 MLB free agents list, as his 2008 option becomes void with a trade. Ken Griffey Jr. and various other Reds may be in play too.
Five articles referenced Dunn this morning. The Newark Star-Ledger contains just one sentence:
"The Cincinnati Reds, who could be in position to trade reliever David Weathers and slugger Adam Dunn, had a scout at the [Yankees-Diamondbacks] game."
One imagines the Yankees may like a number of additional Reds, including Griffey and Mike Stanton. But the Weathers/Dunn speculation is the most reasonable. The Reds, by the way, have yet to approach Junior about any possible trades. While we know Griffey would probably approve a trade to Atlanta, some real creativity would be required with his contract. And he’d have to be open to playing left field. Buster Olney noted today that the White Sox have at least had internal discussions about acquiring Griffey.
The Dayton Daily News has the scoop on scouts from many teams in attendance at the Reds-Angels game last night: the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, White Sox, Tigers, and more. Actually the article references "Los Angeles" so that could be the Angels too. Any of these clubs could conceivably make room for Dunn. I imagine young pitching is the name of the game for Wayne Krivsky.
Besides the previously named players, Eddie Guardado, Scott Hatteberg, and Kyle Lohse could be on the market. The Reds have a $3MM option for ’08 on Guardado and a $1.85MM club option for ’08 on Hatteberg. Lohse, a Scott Boras client, reaches free agency after this season.
Krivsky Has No Comment On Dunn
That Wayne Krivsky greeted Jon Heyman’s Adam Dunn rumor with a no comment might be taken by some as confirmation. After all, we have seen GMs deny similar rumors if the player wasn’t actually available. Then again, it may just be a blanket "no comment" on all trade rumors.
One interesting part of this Cincinnati Enquirer article was Krivsky saying that a 48-hour window could be granted to an acquiring team to hammer out a contract extension. Defense aside, Dunn’s impending free agency is the biggest drawback when comparing him to the also-available Mark Teixeira. But if Dunn is open to a reasonable extension at $12-14MM annually, that could even things out.
Reds Taking Offers On Dunn
We kind of figured Reds slugger Adam Dunn might be available, given his $10.5MM salary and the Reds’ 25-39 record. Today, Jon Heyman at SI.com confirmed that Dunn is "already out there as available," according to his "league sources." Heyman does not mention that Dunn’s $13MM option for 2008 voids if he’s traded.
While Dunn can technically play left field, he will more likely be used as a first baseman or DH by the acquiring team.
The White Sox are short on power this year, but may shift to sell mode soon and probably wouldn’t want Dunn bumbling around in left field anyway. The Dodgers would make a great fit, but acquiring Dunn could require shifting Nomar to third base. He would then break down during his first round of fielding practice.
The Padres make sense too, but Adrian Gonzalez is entrenched at first so Dunn would play left. Oakland or San Francisco could definitely accomodate Dunn at first base. He’d make a great DH for the Twins. Dunn was born in Houston; maybe Wayne Krivsky could do an intra-division trade and Lance Berkman could stick to right field.
I’d really like to see the Twins pull this off, but Dunn just doesn’t seem their style. It seems the Dodgers will snag a big bat one way or another, but Dunn isn’t the easiest fit. I honestly can’t pin down the best suitor for him right now.
Stark’s Latest
Jayson Stark has an assessment of the trade market over at ESPN.com.
- Aside from the usual Mark Teixeira/Eric Gagne mentions, Stark believes many Rangers may be headed out at the trading deadline. Specifically, he names Brad Wilkerson, Kenny Lofton, and Sammy Sosa. Lofton is always a good midseason mercenary. He’s like a Mike Stanton in that way.
- Ken Griffey Jr. would approve a trade to Atlanta and might consider certain other teams. Junior is making $12.5MM this year and next, plus a $4MM buyout for ’09. Quite a bit of the contract is deferred, also. $29MM over 2007-08 is still pretty steep, but now would be the right time to trade Griffey.
- Nationals – still asking too much for Chad Cordero. Bowden’s got time to wait around for the right deal, I suppose.
- Best option for Todd Helton still appears to be the Angels, in Stark’s mind. That does not seem workable to me, because Casey Kotchman has broken out and Vlad needs access to the DH spot.
- Speaking of DHs, this might finally be the year Mike Sweeney gets traded and gets to play for a contender. If he heats up, maybe the Twins could snag him.
- Michael Bourn could be a trade candidate, if the Phillies decide he’s only a future fourth outfielder. Probably makes sense to keep him around if Aaron Rowand is going to walk after this season.
- The Astros are buyers, and they have all sorts of needs. A young catcher would be nice, but those are always in short supply.
- Speaking of young catchers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has received interest but the Braves are not biting. A lot hinges on Scott Thorman‘s performance and, of course, which young player the Braves are offered for Salty. Most teams would love to have him.
Rosenthal’s Latest
Time for another Rosenthal column! Some of this is just a writeup from his recent video; here’s the new stuff.
- A little elaboration on the Adam Dunn to San Diego idea – Rosenthal throws Clay Hensley‘s name into the mix. Hensley has had a rough couple of months, with a nasty blister, a groin strain, and some awful starts. His 54% groundball rate would be a nice fit in Chicago or Cincinnati. Another player I could see catching Wayne Krivsky’s eye is Cla Meredith.
- The Cubs continue to shop Jacque Jones, hoping to slide Felix Pie in every day. Pie is ready for the show, but the Cubs would like something to show for Jones. He is earning $4MM this year and $5MM in ’08. It looked like a bargain after Jones hit .285/.334/.499 last year, but he’s tanked in the Cubs’ crowded outfield. He could fit well with the Padres, a team that doesn’t hit lefties or righties. Jones normally just struggles with lefties. Jacque was born in San Diego, too. Kevin Towers and Jim Hendry matched up for a couple of smaller deals last summer with Todd Walker and Scott Williamson.
- Mike Lowell may leave Boston after this season as a free agent. He’s easily the best affordable 3B on the market. Perhaps the Yankees want him back. Other possibilities include the Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Phillies, and Astros according to Rosenthal. Hard to believe Lowell is so popular and successful after he was a throw-in forced upon the Red Sox in the Josh Beckett deal.
- Eric Byrnes is probably headed out of Arizona, and he’d be a valuable center field addition who won’t break the bank. He’ll be 32 in ’08, and on a reasonable three-year deal could be a better value than Ichiro, Torii, or Andruw. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the White Sox get involved.
Rosenthal’s Latest Video
Ken Rosenthal reeled off a slew of sweet trade rumors in a couple of videos today, which you can watch at FOXSports. Let’s discuss.
- Rosenthal says the Cubs won’t trade Carlos Zambrano unless they fall out of contention or the big righty requests a trade. Rosenthal finds neither scenario likely. He says Zambrano still has a good relationship with Jim Hendry, and the Cubs still intend to sign him. The contract remains on hold. Interesting, but not surprising to see that the Cubs are still veering towards this mistake after what we’ve seen this year.
- Lots of good Jermaine Dye stuff from Rosenthal. About ten days ago, the White Sox kicked around the idea of sending Dye to the Yankees for Bobby Abreu. The Yanks covet Dye’s right-handed power, and Ozzie loves Abreu, his countryman. Rosenthal says the White Sox like the option of keeping Abreu for $16MM in ’08 if they so choose. That option comes with a $2MM buyout attached. The Dye/Abreu swap may be on hold because Dye is finally showing some signs of life. I have to be honest – I don’t understand the timeline here. If the Sox were considering this ten days ago, nothing Dye has done since should have changed their thinking.
- Other suitors for Dye: the Padres or Dodgers. The two NL West competitors rank 10th and 12th in the league in slugging, respectively. No doubt the Dodgers have the goods, but what reasonable trade could the Padres work out? Kenny Williams and Kevin Towers have matched up twice before, but on minor trades involving guys like D’Angelo Jimenez and Geoff Blum.
- Rosenthal says the Padres are also eyeing Adam Dunn, for whom their pitchers’ ballpark would present less of an obstacle. Two hitches: Dunn can become a free agent after this season if he’s traded, and the Reds will ask for a lot. The Padres’ best pitching prospect, Cesar Carrillo, recently had Tommy John surgery. Their best hitting prospect, Cedric Hunter, is trying to figure out Low A ball. Third baseman Chase Headley is hitting well in Double A, and I’m sure plenty of teams would like to have him. Headley is somewhat blocked by Kevin Kouzmanoff. Honestly, though, the Padres don’t have much in the minors to trade. At the Major League level, they might be able to part with Cla Meredith and get a decent hitter in return.
Healey’s Latest
Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball has some new rumors for us this morning.
- There’s talk that if the Twins are more than five games out at the trading deadline, they’ll start dealing veterans. An obvious one is Luis Castillo, earning $5.75MM this season. He has long been connected to the Mets. He almost signed with New York as a free agent and the team has tried trading for him before. Healey believes Lastings Milledge is too much to give up, so don’t look for a straight up swap of those two. Though I imagine the Twins would love having Milledge to man center field in 2008.
- The Reds are ten games under .500 and ten out in the NL Central. Healey speculates that Adam Dunn, Ryan Freel, and Dave Weathers are the Reds’ most tradeable commodities. The Reds recently extended Freel through 2009, though – I think they want him around as a fan favorite. Dunn I can see being moved. He earns $10.5MM this year with a $13MM club option for ’08. He’s got an unsurprising line of .263/.366/.538; that’s worth $13 mil these days. The Dodgers or White Sox seem like good fits.
Rosenthal On Slugger Market
Yesterday’s Ken Rosenthal article does a great job breaking down the market for sluggers this summer. As usual there are some big names for the taking, and as usual many of them come with hefty salaries or other flaws like injury history or Scott Boras.
A couple of AL West teams, the A’s and Angels, have been particularly powerless this year (both slugging less than .395). The Twins and White Sox could use some pop too. Over on the NL side, the Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, and D’Backs could look to add a power bat. One of the three NL West teams mentioned could pull away with a major addition.
The most intriguing name in Rosenthal’s article is Sammy Sosa. He is having a respectable resurgence so far at .268/.331/.512. While it would be fun to see him back in the NL, his right field defense could prohibit it. But come on – how funny would it be to see Sosa don Cardinal red? Another interesting subplot thrown out by Rosenthal would be Ken Griffey Jr. back to Seattle, something that seems to come up every year if Junior is healthy.
Homer Bailey Coming Soon?
The Reds aren’t sure who will start in Eric Milton‘s place on Sunday; phenom Homer Bailey is in the running. RotoAuthority has the fantasy take.
Speaking of the Reds, they just demoted third baseman Edwin Encarnacion. He’s had an awful start both offensively and defensively, but did hit .276/.359/.473 as a 23 year-old. I can see some Aramis Ramirez parallells, though Ramirez doesn’t make EE’s top 20 comps at Baseball Prospectus. He does have some big names on there, like Ron Gant, Steve Garvey, Ron Santo, and Adrian Beltre. A team like the Twins would do well to buy low on him if possible. He’s a known name on the Angels’ list.
Angels Interested In Garrett Atkins
Last year, Rockies third baseman Garrett Atkins was the second-best hitter at his position, behind only Miguel Cabrera. Atkins isn’t set to reach free agency until 2011, making him a very valuable commodity. The Rockies had talks with him this offseason about a deal covering his arbitration years and first year of free agency, but no agreement could be reached.
Now, both the Denver Post and L.A. Times are reporting that the Angels are interested in trading for Atkins. Troy E. Renck of the Post says Atkins’s name first came up during the Winter Meetings when the two clubs were discussing a Todd Helton deal. Renck writes that Ervin Santana would be a must in any trade and that the Angels also have interest in Brad Hawpe and Jeff Baker. He also says Atkins is still considered a core member of the team, so a deal is unlikely. I wonder if Bill Stoneman is trying to take advantage of a subpar start for Atkins – his defense hasn’t been pretty and his power has been MIA.
From the L.A. side, Mike DiGiovanna adds several players on the Halos’ radar: Kevin Mench, Jacque Jones, Pat Burrell, Emil Brown, Morgan Ensberg, and Edwin Encarnacion. DiGiovanna agrees that Santana is the top trading chip. Santana could really blossom in the National League. With Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton struggling and Brett Myers in the pen, the Phillies probably have the strongest need. Starters Joe Saunders and Dustin Moseley could be used if the Angels want to make a smaller deal.
As long as the Angels are making an all-out blitz for a third baseman, let’s speculate on some other possibilities. Mike Lowell, Chad Tracy, Hank Blalock have all been rumored in the past; the Rangers clearly have the biggest need for a starter. Santana, however, could be Brandon McCarthy all over again with his flyball tendencies.