LaRue traded to the Royals
According to Baseball Digest Daily‘s newsletter (not yet online), Jason LaRue (and, I would guess, some portion of his $5.2 million salary for 2007) are headed to Kansas City for a minor leaguer to be named. The Royals had been in the market for a catcher, and this means they won’t have to sign Gregg Zaun to the three-year deal he’s after.
LaRue had a disastrous off-year in 2006, hitting below .200 in limited duty. (Hit below .200 with a couple of good catchers on the roster, and you will always find yourself in limited duty! Unless you’re Brad Ausmus.) However, he’s only one year removed from a 4.7 win season–if the Royals can get anything close to that out of him, he’s worth the full five million bucks. However, he’s a catcher going into his age-33 season; ZiPS projects him to "bounce back" to .234/.331/.411. That wouldn’t earn him a fan club in KC, but it would be good enough, especially if he continued to be above average on defense, which he has been over his career..
Looks like this could be a great trade for both sides: the Reds save some cash on a player they don’t need, and the Royals get a catcher with some upside without tying themselves into a long-term contract.
UPDATE: Here’s a link for now.
By Jeff Sackmann
Gotham Baseball: Rockies Want Milledge?
One oif the more interesting things I heard in this week’s follow up calls after the GM Meetings was the Colorado Rockies’ interest in Lastings Milledge.
Though I keep hearing from those inside and outside of the team’s inner circle that Milledge is still a player they expect to blossom in New York, I can’t help but think that the Mets are focused on moving forward…without Lastings.
Another very interesting tidbit was a rumor of the Tigers and Reds talking Adam Dunn
Speier and Stanton close to finding new homes
The big news this morning is that the Angels are close to a four-year deal with Justin Speier, who is very possibly the best reliever on the market this year. Tim predicted that Speier would get a three-year deal worth $17M–my guess is that the money per year is right, just with that extra year, for a total of $21-$22M or so.
Speier was a possible closer for many teams, so it’s something of a surprise that the team that ponied up for him already has a great closer and a solid setup man in Frankie Rodriguez and Scot Shields. It’s not cheap, and it’ll certainly be more expensive once Frankie gets deep into his arbitration years, but LA could have the best 1-2-3 bullpen punch in baseball for a couple of years.
The market for relievers wasn’t pretty in the first place; now the best guys out there are, uh, Danys Baez and David Weathers? The price was already high for Scott Linebrink; it just went up again.
One of the possibilities for Boston (who was presumed to be a suitor for Speier) is Joe Borowski, who sounds more than generically interested in the Red Sox. And who wouldn’t be? Short of every fanboy’s dream of Roger Clemens pitching the ninth inning, Borowski could end up closing games in Boston.
Yesterday I said nice things about the Reds signing of Alex Gonzalez. Today I can’t be so kind to Wayne Krivsky. Apparently he’s about to sign Mike Stanton to a two-year deal with a vesting option for a third. Stanton turns 40 in June. He had a nice run in San Francisco last year, but let’s face it: the guy hasn’t put up a good full season for two years. Sure, he might be worth more than the $1M he got for last year, but a vesting option for 2009? I guess that if you’re worried David Weathers won’t come back, there’s only one choice: get older.
By Jeff Sackmann
Alex Gonzlez about to sign with Cinci
Three years, $14 million for Alex Gonzalez, via Gammons. Depending on what you think of A-Gon’s defense, that might be a good deal. Gonzalez doesn’t get a love of love from traditional statheads since his career OBP is a mere .292, but the bar is pretty low for shortstops.
He’ll be 30 next year, so there’s no reason to expect a major fall-off; Baseball Prospectus has his wins above replacement (WARP) at 3.2, 3.5, and 2.7 in the last three years. If you figure he’s good for 3 wins, that’s less than $2M per win–a great, great deal in this market. That’s based on BP’s fielding metrics, which have Alex as below average with the glove. If you believe, as the Reds seem to, that he’s above average, it’s even better still.
Then again, it’s not quite as good a deal as Felipe Lopez will be for the Nationals in arbitration. Felipe made $2.7M last year and will get a sizable raise, but he’s been worth over 5 wins each of the last two years. I’m sure Gary Majewski will be worth it.
By Jeff Sackmann
3/15 Offered To Alex Gonzalez
Free agent shortstop and defensive whiz Alex Gonzalez has received a three year, $15MM offer from an unknown club.
Nick Cafardo’s sources indicate that the teams may be the White Sox or Reds. Though not mentioned in the post, another possibility could include the Royals.
2007 Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are next up on our 2007 Team Outlooks.
Wayne Krivsky’s contract obligations as he remakes the Reds in the Twins’ image:
C – David Ross – $0.5MM
C – Javier Valentin – $1.25MM
C – Jason LaRue – $5.2MM
1B – Scott Hatteberg – $1.5MM
2B – Brandon Phillips – $0.33MM
SS –
3B – Edwin Encarnacion – $0.3325MM
IF – Juan Castro – $0.925MM
LF – Adam Dunn – $10.5MM
CF – Ken Griffey Jr. – $6MM (another $6.5MM is deferred)
RF – Ryan Freel – $1.7MM
OF – Chris Denorfia – $0.327MM
SP – Aaron Harang – $2.35MM
SP – Bronson Arroyo – $3.8MM
SP – Kyle Lohse – $4MM
SP – Eric Milton – $9MM
SP – Elizardo Ramirez – $0.33MM
SP – Homer Bailey – $0.33MM
RP – Rheal Cormier – $2.25MM
RP – Gary Majewski – $0.352MM
RP – Matt Belisle – $0.3435MM
RP – Todd Coffey – $0.339MM
RP – Bill Bray – $0.33MM
RP – Brian Shackelford – $0.33MM
RP – Jason Standridge – $0.33MM
Buyouts:
SP – Paul Wilson – $0.85MM
IF – Rich Aurilia – $0.2MM
Injured:
SP – Brandon Claussen – $0.37MM (shoulder surgery August 2006)
I have the Reds at about $54-56MM depending on arbitration raises. They entered 2006 with a $61MM payroll. So, not that much to play with unless bigger salaries like Dunn or LaRue are unloaded.
On the catching situation: LaRue just had an awful year, basically becoming Aaron Harang‘s personal catcher and nothing more. He’s being paid like a #1, and would like to regain his job or be traded. If the Reds eat some salary maybe the Phillies would have interest. Ross posted some surprising career bests in 250 ABs; it probably can’t hold up over another 400. He’s only got three years of service time so the Reds should have his rights for a while.
With a heavy dose of right-handed pitching, Hatteberg bounced back with an .826 OPS. He’ll keep the seat warm for a good price until Joey Votto is ready. Votto is one of the game’s very best 1B prospects. Hatteberg seems to be Krivsky’s only acknowledgement of the importance of OBP.
Phillips certainly looks like a capable 2B and a great find by Krivsky. There’s been some talk of using him at shortstop; he played the position as recently as Triple A in 2005. He only got a brief trial there in ’06 with the Reds; my feeling is that he’ll remain at second and the team will import a shortstop.
Let’s just hope that Castro doesn’t spend too much time as the starting SS. Interestingly, the Reds asked about Miguel Tejada in July. For Tejada to fit in the payroll, I think Adam Dunn would have to be involved. I haven’t heard any specific names, but some other options at short include Julio Lugo, Jack Wilson, Alex Cintron, and Alex Gonzalez. It might’ve been nice to have Felipe Lopez around.
Encarnacion looks like a future star at 3B, and Rich Aurilia probably won’t be around to take any starts over there. Aurilia isn’t much of a starting SS, so he’ll probably price himself too high for the Reds to keep him as a backup.
The outfield is pretty well set, with Denorfia finding plenty of work when Griffey is hurt. Jerry Narron would prefer to move Freel around and play him four days a week, so Denorfia can find PT in right as well.
The front of the rotation looks solid, with Arroyo and Harang placing #1 and #3 in innings pitched in all of baseball. 40% of the time, those guys will take a load off a weak bullpen. Lohse wasn’t awful as a Red, showing decent command. You’d rather have him as your fourth starter, but that’s life. The Reds only have endure one more year of the Milton Mistake.
Ideally the Reds can work in superprospect Homer Bailey in place of the worst of Lohse, Milton, or Ramirez. Until that’s sorted out a bullpen intro to the bigs wouldn’t be a horrible idea. Last year’s 138 pro innings was a career high for the 20 year-old phenom. If he can keep the walks down, Bailey should be very tough to score upon even as a rookie.
The Reds hope midseason acquisitions Majewski and Bray are healthy and effective in ’07. If so, it has the potential to be a decent ‘pen. The Reds are still lacking that one shutdown reliever to use in the ninth inning, however. There’s nothing on the closer market, so the Reds will have to hope someone can step up.
Cincinnati has a middle-of-the-pack offense right now. A full season without Austin Kearns or Felipe Lopez plus a possible trade of Dunn could weaken it even further. The pitching looks mediocre as well, especially factoring in some regression for Arroyo. The Reds are not a bad team, but they would probably need one more good starter, an impact hitter, and a bullpen ace to be favored in the division in 2007.
Instead of trying to compete in 2007, the Reds might be better off shooting for ’08. Votto, Bailey, and other prospects will have had time to develop. Encarnacion could be a star. Milton and LaRue will be off the books. The 2008 club could be a few wise expenditures away from contention.
Adam Dunn On The Block?
Is it possible, in this day and age, for a player like Adam Dunn to be undervalued? I think so. As Lonnie Wheeler informs us, it’s "not working" with the big guy. Dunn turns 27 in November. He’ll make $10.5MM in 2007 and has a $13MM club option for ’08.
So what exactly isn’t working with Dunn? He’s hit 126 home runs over the past three seasons. Only David Ortiz and Albert Pujols have more. Dunn also has a .380 OBP over the last three seasons. Better than Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Beltran, Aramis Ramirez, or Andruw Jones.
The problems, of course, are the strikeouts and low batting averages. Sportswriters just can’t take this. You just can’t convince some people that a guy who hits .240 and whiffs 190 times is a premiere player.
Dunn slipped all the way to .229/.360/.416 after the All-Star break, and that certainly contributed to the Reds’ demise. But I don’t think 250 ABs should erase Dunn’s previous body of work. He’s pretty close to a lock for 40 HRs and a .370 OBP. You better believe that’s worth $10 mil. Baseball Prospectus says Dunn is worth about $53MM for 2007-10.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see some smart team fleece Wayne Krivsky for Dunn. You’ll notice I said smart,which probably rules out the Cubs. That’s a shame – would Bob Howry and Scott Eyre get it done? One could envision the Blue Jays, Red Sox, White Sox, A’s, Rangers, Brewers, or Diamondbacks acquiring Dunn this winter.
Reds Acquire Lohse, Cormier
Wayne Krivsky did some tinkering this morning, picking up Kyle Lohse and Rheal Cormier in separate trades.
Lohse, 27, was demoted on May 17th. After four solid efforts in Rochester, he was recalled and used in middle relief. Maybe, just maybe, he can get by as a fifth starter in the NL.
The aggregate line of all the hitters Lohse has faced this year is .269/.334/.426 (.760 OPS). In comparison, Bronson Arroyo‘s batters faced have managed an aggregate .756 OPS and Aaron Harang‘s competition is at .754. So it’s not like the NL Central is that much easier than the AL Central based on quality of batters faced.
Cormier has posted a 1.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season in 34 innings for the Phils. I’m surprised Krivsky didn’t give up Homer Bailey to get him. One note about Cormier is that he has not been used in high leverage situations this year. Baseball Prospectus ranks him fifth in leverage on his own team. Among pitchers who haven’t started or closed this year, Scott Linebrink leads in leverage. He’s followed by Scot Shields, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Wise, Duaner Sanchez, and Roberto Hernandez.
Tribe Trades Broussard For Choo
Ben Broussard was reunited with his former platoonmate Eduardo Perez today. He was dealt to the Mariners for outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Broussard and Perez will combine to make a lethal combo, just as they did at first base for Cleveland.
More teams ought to assemble this sort of sweet platoon. The combined efforts of Broussard and Perez this season come out to a .316/.358/.550 line, including 22 HR and 63 RBI. The .908 OPS is roughly equivalent to what Carlos Lee has done this season. The difference is that Broussard and Perez, or as I like to call them, Brourez, take up two roster spots and make $4.2MM less. By the way, I had no idea going in how hard it would be to come up with two players’ combined OBP. Did you know the denominator includes sacrifice flies but not sac bunts, and intentional walks are not part of OBP? I learn something every day. I figured it was just all walks plus hits divided by plate appearances.
Anyway, the decision to ditch Carl Everett and get a decent DH in there was long overdue. And Mark Shapiro snagged a well-rounded 24 year-old prospect in Choo.
Hatteberg Signed For 2007
In a minor move today, Reds GM Wayne Krivsky signed first baseman Scott Hatteberg for 2007 with an option for ’08.
The 36 year-old slumped to an awful .256/.334/.343 line for the A’s in ’05. He signed a free agent deal in February for $750,000 with Cincinnati. This year, Hatteberg has surged to a .324/.417/.505 performance in 275 ABs. He’s drawn a walk in an impressive 14% of his plate appearances, 12th in the league.
Hatteberg historically performs worse against southpaws, and Jerry Narron has done well to use him primarily against righties. In the previous three seasons, Hatteberg faced lefties in 28% of his at-bats. This year, he’s seen them just 19% of the time.
Given the small commitment to Hatteberg, the path is still clear for 22 year-old first baseman Joey Votto whenever he’s ready. Votto is hitting .325/.407/.577 in Double A this season. The .984 OPS leads the Southern League. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein rates Votto the third best first base prospect in the game behind Daric Barton and James Loney. Throw in Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey and the Reds can have a core of excellent youngsters in place by ’08.