Astros Talking About Miguel Tejada
MLBTradeRumors has learned that the Astros are in talks with Baltimore for Miguel Tejada. I don’t have much more detail than that, but it comes from a trusted source. Houston has been reluctant to offer up outfielder Hunter Pence, who currently has 22 home runs in Double A. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Astros previously expressed interest back in January.
A couple more tasty Tejada nuggets: The Reds kicked the tires on the superstar shortstop, but a deal couldn’t be completed without including stud pitcher Homer Bailey. In my opinion, if the Reds are really going for the gold this year, they should’ve pulled the trigger. Also, the reason the Angels are resisting a Tejada deal: Mike Scioscia. Scioscia doesn’t want Tejada bringing his…influence…into the clubhouse.
Reds Send Kearns, Lopez To Nats In Blockbuster
I was fairly baffled by this trade. How in the world does swapping out Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, and Brendan Harris make the Reds a better team this year? (Ryan Wagner and Daryl Thompson were also swapped in the deal). Let’s analyze.
Lopez is a below average defensive shortstop. He’s probably amongst the five worst defensive shortstops in the game, as indicated by The Fielding Bible. The Reds are ranked just 12th in the league in defensive efficiency this year. Still, Royce Clayton is no defensive whiz at this point – he’s probably only a shade better than Lopez. So unless Krivsky has some fielding metrics that say otherwise, the gains on defense are minimal. And if both players keep hitting like they have been this year, the Reds lose a full win on offense.
As for the bullpen additions, I’m less impressed after I look more closely. Majewski is a 26 year-old reliever who does not miss bats (career K rate of 5.3 per nine). He’s also generous with the free passes. While he may have squeezed into the list of the ten best setup men last year, he’s not the most reliable option. 23 year-old southpaw Bray is more potential than results thus far, and he hasn’t shown much ability to shut down left-handed hitters. He’s got good stuff, but he’s still just a reliever.
Brendan Harris is a good little player; maybe he’ll be starting at second base for the Reds next year if Brandon Phillips moves over to shortstop. Righty starter Daryl Thompson is just 20, and adds needed depth to the Reds’ farm system. Still, neither has been making anyone’s top prospect list.
I tried to defend Wayne Krivsky a bit at first, but this trade just looks bad. The more I dig in, the less I like the players he acquired. And if the Reds – 1.5 games out of the wild card – don’t make the playoffs by a couple of wins, this trade is the reason.
For the Nats, Kearns would not be a bad option at all in center field. He’s got good range and a good arm. His power potential remains huge, and though RFK will dampen his stats. Great American Ballpark inflates right-handed home runs by about 15% while RFK deflates them by over 20%. This could cost him 5-6 homers annually.
Lopez is seeing his power numbers slip this season as he continues to pound the ball into the ground more than half the time he makes contact. The steals don’t add much value. Strip it down and mostly you’re left with one asset: the ability to draw a walk in 10-12% of his plate appearances. That’s a good thing, but it doesn’t outweigh the negatives. The idea of unloading Lopez made sense, but the execution was poor.
Go over to the Hardball Times to see Aaron Gleeman’s excellent take on the deal.
Reds Send Kearns, Lopez To Nats In Blockbuster
I was fairly baffled by this trade. How in the world does swapping out Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, and Brendan Harris make the Reds a better team this year? (Ryan Wagner and Daryl Thompson were also swapped in the deal). Let’s analyze.
Lopez is a below average defensive shortstop. He’s probably amongst the five worst defensive shortstops in the game, as indicated by The Fielding Bible. The Reds are ranked just 12th in the league in defensive efficiency this year. Still, Royce Clayton is no defensive whiz at this point – he’s probably only a shade better than Lopez. So unless Krivsky has some fielding metrics that say otherwise, the gains on defense are minimal. And if both players keep hitting like they have been this year, the Reds lose a full win on offense.
As for the bullpen additions, I’m less impressed after I look more closely. Majewski is a 26 year-old reliever who does not miss bats (career K rate of 5.3 per nine). He’s also generous with the free passes. While he may have squeezed into the list of the ten best setup men last year, he’s not the most reliable option. 23 year-old southpaw Bray is more potential than results thus far, and he hasn’t shown much ability to shut down left-handed hitters. He’s got good stuff, but he’s still just a reliever.
Brendan Harris is a good little player; maybe he’ll be starting at second base for the Reds next year if Brandon Phillips moves over to shortstop. Righty starter Daryl Thompson is just 20, and adds needed depth to the Reds’ farm system. Still, neither has been making anyone’s top prospect list.
I tried to defend Wayne Krivsky a bit at first, but this trade just looks bad. The more I dig in, the less I like the players he acquired. And if the Reds – 1.5 games out of the wild card – don’t make the playoffs by a couple of wins, this trade is the reason.
For the Nats, Kearns would not be a bad option at all in center field. He’s got good range and a good arm. His power potential remains huge, and though RFK will dampen his stats. Great American Ballpark inflates right-handed home runs by about 15% while RFK deflates them by over 20%. This could cost him 5-6 homers annually.
Lopez is seeing his power numbers slip this season as he continues to pound the ball into the ground more than half the time he makes contact. The steals don’t add much value. Strip it down and mostly you’re left with one asset: the ability to draw a walk in 10-12% of his plate appearances. That’s a good thing, but it doesn’t outweigh the negatives. The idea of unloading Lopez made sense, but the execution was poor.
Click here to see the fantasy take on this trade over at RotoAuthority.
Go over to the Hardball Times to see Aaron Gleeman’s excellent take on the deal.
Reds Acquire Guardado
The Reds swapped oft-traded starter Travis Chick for southpaw reliever Eddie Guardado today.
Cincinnati’s bullpen ERA of 5.28 is dead last in the National League. They’ve also blown 13 saves, third worst. Current closer Todd Coffey‘s 1.38 WHIP doesn’t gel with his 3.08 ERA. He’s fortunate that it’s that low. With a 5.9 K/9, Coffey is more hittable than most teams like their closers. Since June 1st, Coffey has blown two saves and taken three losses.
35 year-old Guardado has been even more hittable, and he’s also had worse control and allowed a ton of home runs. The Reds should be on the hook for about $3 million bucks assuming the Mariners aren’t eating any salary. I’m not sure if this move improves their bullpen at all, but maybe a change of scenery will stir something in Guardado. After all, it’s only been 23 innings and Guardado was quite solid as recently as last year. Guardado was supplanted as Seattle’s closer by J.J. Putz this season.
Chick, a 22 year-old righty, has at least made progress in his strikeout rate at Double A. This trade reminds me of something Buster Olney said in his blog today:
"Many, many teams are looking for middle relievers but very few are available because, quite simply, most of them are cheap. "It really doesn’t make a lot of sense to trade a good middle reliever because you’re not paying him that much, and as soon as you trade one, you’ve got to find a replacement," said an AL GM. "Everybody is looking for the same thing," said another AL executive, "and there’s almost nothing out there.’"
This makes me think the Cubs might be able to get something halfway decent in return for their investment in Scott Williamson.
Miscellaneous Rumors
There are a few trade-related nuggets in the newspapers today, but I don’t expect anything major to go down until June.
The Reds are trying to find a taker for Tony Womack, who has thankfully been pushed out of their infield and demoted. That is what we call a million dollar mistake. I guess Brandon Phillips makes up for it, at least until his bat runs cold.
Jay Payton and his agent are being vocal about finding him his 500 ABs with another team if necessary. The best fit I can find is the Cardinals.
The Yanks plan on declining Mike Mussina‘s option and re-signing him to a more reasonable deal. The decline is a no-brainer at $17MM, but I’m just remembering what happened with Jon Lieber. New York had some goodwill there after paying Lieber to rehab, but he still jumped ship after seeing the market. This is a different situation given Mussina’s tenure, and he has said he wants to stay put. I’m just saying, it’s not a 100% lock.
Howie Kendrick got the call, but it took an injury, and not a trade, of Maicer Izturis. My guess is that Izturis will spend at least a month on the shelf and that Kendrick will stick for the rest of the season. If Kendrick can hit as expected between pinch-hitting, DHing, and spot starting at 2B/3B, there will be plenty of interest for Adam Kennedy in the coming months. Kennedy is a 3-4 win guy who could really help the Mets or Cardinals for half a season.
Speculation: Choi or Pena to Reds?
Publicly, the Reds’ plan seems to be using Scott Hatteberg as a full-time first baseman and shifting Adam Dunn back to the outfield now that Wily Mo Pena is gone.
Hatteberg authored a .256/.334/.343 line for Oakland last year in 464 at-bats. That’s just nowhere near the work of a starting first baseman, even if he does dial that OBP up to .370 again. A commenter on the Wily Mo thread, Mike Murphy, had this to say:
"I predict… the Cincy Reds will wind up with either Carlos Pena or Hee Seop Choi."
To that I say, good call! One of those interesting first base projects would be an ideal fit for Cincinnati. Other possibilities: Tony Clark, Ryan Shealy, and maybe Walter Young. Hell, Calvin Pickering deserves another shot, the big lug. Not sure who the Reds could send over to acquire Shealy, but that would be a fantastic pickup.
Wily Mo Traded For Arroyo
It’s official: the Red Sox have sent Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena. This is an intriguing trade.
The Reds needed a solid affordable starter like Arroyo. It’s unclear yet which Reds starter will be pushed out of the rotation. Eric Milton is terrible but well paid. Paul Wilson will probably begin the year on the DL, so the club won’t have to sort things out until he returns.
So far in his career, Arroyo has done an above average job keeping the ball in the park with a 0.95 HR/9 in 588 innings. This will come in handy in Great American Ballpark. Still, as U.S.S. Mariner points out, he’s a flyball pitcher entering a home run ballpark with Ken Griffey Jr. as his centerfielder. Not a great mix.
You’d have to imagine Arroyo is less than amused after signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal out of loyalty for the Red Sox. This is one case where a player should’ve listened to his agents.
Fenway Park provides a 13% HR boost for righties like Pena. Of course, Great American had a similar effect on him. Here’s a look at some projections for Pena. I know he’s touted as a 40 HR candidate right now, but something in the low 30s would be more reasonable even if he gets 550 ABs. For fantasy geeks, Pena could certainly top 100 RBIs for the first time if he gets to hit in the heart of the order and isn’t platooned.
Soriano for Griffey Deal In The Works?
It’s always fun to find trade rumors in Spanish newspapers. El Nuevo Dia’s latest discusses an Alfonso Soriano for Ken Griffey Jr. trade that is cooking up. The following is a rough translation (hat tip to Mariloren on the translation!):
The Reds and Nationals have been negotiating the Soriano for Griffey trade over the last few days. Soriano refused comment when approached by the newspaper. Details are the proposed transaction are still unknown. If traded to the Nationals, Griffey would be reunited with former Reds GM Jim Bowden.
My own commentary: I think the Reds would be the winners in this one. Griffey is still on the hook for $41.5MM over the next three seasons. Even if the Reds pick up a third of the cost, they probably come out ahead. Soriano is a clear upgrade over the current choice to play second base, Tony Womack. Of course, Ryan Freel might be better than both second basemen, but the Reds seem intent on using him in a supersub role.
Despite subpar defense for a center fielder, the Nats would surely play Griffey out there. The loser in the deal would probably be Ryan Church, who could be dealt if Jose Guillen proves healthy.
In other news from the article, Juan Gonzalez is still hungry to return to the Majors and try to reach 500 home runs.
Signs of Reds OF Trade Mounting
More and more, it’s looking like the Reds will deal one of their outfielders before the season begins. First off, Jon Heyman’s column from yesterday:
"Now that Scott Hatteberg has been signed for first base, the Reds might shop that extra outfielder they’ve been carrying for a while. They have Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Peña, Austin Kearns and Ken Griffey Jr., with Peña most likely to go for young pitching. Previous owner Carl Lindner rejected deals for Griffey (including one with the Cubs last year), but maybe new owner Rob Castellini will do the right thing."
I must say, I hadn’t heard about that Cubs/Griffey offer before now. Griffey to the White Sox, yes. Anyway, Will Carroll also got in on the act today:
"Adam Dunn in left field? Who’s headed out of Cincinnati?"
I agree with Heyman – Wily Mo seems most likely to go. But we should start with the Reds when figuring this one out. The Reds need pitching. Surprisingly, their rotation is actually already five-deep if Paul Wilson is able to take the hill. The Reds won’t put a timetable on his return.
Possible matches: Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Anaheim, Florida, and Los Angeles. OK, that didn’t exactly narrow it down. But all these teams could use an outfielder and could probably come up with a youngster to get it done.
Bowden Still Chasing Wily Mo
Tucked at the bottom of Bill Ladson’s article about the Nationals’ attempts to convince Alfonso Soriano to play left field is a new trade rumor. Well, a new old trade rumor. According to Ladson:
"The Nationals already have feelers out for Reds outfielder Wily Mo Pena, and a Nationals scout is expected to look at him sometime this week.
The Nationals have been after Pena since last season. He is a player who Bowden acquired from the Yankees when he was the general manager of the Reds. Last year, Pena hit .254 with 19 home runs and 54 RBIs for Cincinnati. Bowden has always believed that Pena has the potential of being a similar player to Sammy Sosa."
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system calls for a breakout season for Wily Mo this year; something along the lines of .280 with 33 HRs in a full season. In my own estimation, a healthy Pena might hit .253 with 33 HRs. No one’s disputing his power, but only PECOTA thinks Pena can make a batting average jump along the lines of his comparables, Jesse Barfield and Willie Stargell.
The Reds’ desire in any Pena trade will be pitching, pitching, and more pitching. On the Major League level, the Nationals feature John Patterson plus a whole lot of other guys that would not bring Pena in a trade. It would be crazy for the team to trade Patterson, so let’s see what’s in the minors.
The Nats’ farm system is barren. According to Baseball America, the club’s best young pitchers are Collin Balester, Mike Hinckley, Bill Bray, and Daryl Thompson. I would’ve added Armando Galarraga, but the Nats traded him to Texas in the Soriano deal. None of these guys are close to the Majors, so Bowden would probably have to rope in a third team to get one of their pitchers involved. Even then, they don’t have much to offer. If Bowden can somehow turn Soriano, a huge mistake, into Pena, he deserves many accolades.