Hatteberg Insurance For A Dunn Trade?
There hasn’t been a whole lot of activity on the trade rumor front in recent days, but I’ll keep digging. In the event that there are just no rumors to report, I’ll step slightly outside of the rumor realm to talk about contracts, analyze teams, and whatever else suits my baseball fancy. I hope you continue to engage in discussion here and check out the site daily.
Anywho, Buster Olney had a thought this morning in his blog that definitely had not occurred to me:
"The first thing I thought of when I saw the Reds had signed Scott Hatteberg was that now Cincinnati has protection in the event they decide to move Adam Dunn in a deal for pitching."
In reference to Hatteberg’s role, new Reds GM Wayne Krivsky remarked, "The playing time will take care of itself."
One can certainly question whether Hatteberg could serve as even a league average regular first baseman in Dunn’s absence. He hit .256/.334/.343 last year in 464 ABs. There’s a chance Hatteberg returns to the .780 OPS level, but that’s still well below the .843 mark posted by the average NL first baseman in 2005.
The Reds led the National League with 222 HRs in 2005 but had a league-worst 5.15 ERA. The need for pitching is manifest. In an Orange County Register article this morning, Randy Youngman mentioned that the Reds are rumored to be interested in free agent Jeff Weaver. However, the Angels are the only known team with an offer currently on the table.
As far as free agent starting pitching goes, the options are grim outside of Weaver. Some possible retreads for the Reds: Pedro Astacio, Kevin Brown, Jose Lima, and Jamey Wright. Only a year removed from 130 solid innings for the Yanks, I still think Brown is worth a look. But he’s neither reliable nor a long-term solution. That brings us to the idea of trading Dunn for starting pitching.
Dunn becomes a free agent after the 2007 season, so the Reds shouldn’t be in any big hurry. It’s well known that the Astros hope to lure him to his hometown, as Houston has already gone to great lengths to "butter him up." The Reds have not discussed a multi-year deal with Dunn.
Dunn was worth 6.9 wins last year despite playing with a broken hand. He was the fourth-best left fielder in baseball last year according to WARP, above Hideki Matsui and Manny Ramirez. Ranked as a first baseman, Dunn probably should be grouped with Carlos Delgado and Richie Sexson. A brief comparison would indicate that Dunn is due for a four-year, $52MM contract. However, he’s at least five years younger than any of the aforementioned players.
Assuming the Reds are looking for affordable starting pitching with potential, which teams have the need for power and could part with a starter?
I’d say the Braves might make a play, given that they could part with Jorge Sosa and Chuck James to add Dunn. But the club seems content with LaRoche/Langerhans/Johnson manning the 1B/LF spots, and that’s worth a shot.
Would the Twins deal from their strength and send Scott Baker to the Reds? Doesn’t seem like their style. Dunn would probably be out of their price range, though he’d be a huge upgrade over Shannon Stewart.
The Orioles could consider shipping off Erik Bedard or Daniel Cabrera to add Dunn, but they’re not exactly pitching-rich right now. Such a trade would create a new problem for the O’s.
Jake Westbrook is expendable, but the Indians would have to include Adam Miller or Jeremy Sowers as well. This could be a trade that could help both teams, in my mind.
The Jays could give up Gustavo Chacin, but the Reds would likely ask for Dustin McGowan in any deal. Top pitching prospects of this nature are rarely traded, though it would fit Ricciardi’s "win now" plan.
Possible Kearns/Westbrook Swap
Reds interim GM Brad Kullman certainly seems more open-minded than his predecessor, Dan O’Brien. But one of O’Brien’s final non-moves may have been one of his few wise ones. Sheldon Ocker’s Beacon Journal article today reports that O’Brien turned down an Austin Kearns for Jake Westbrook all-Ohio trade prior to his firing.
Such a one for one trade would lean heavily towards the Indians, in my opinion. Here’s my reasoning.
The 25 year-old Kearns has yet to reach his potential, while Westbrook has topped out at age 28. Let’s look at 2005. In just 387 at-bats, Kearns was worth 3.6 wins. Westbrook was worth 3.8, but that was in a full season. Kullman has said that Kearns stands to get 550 ABs in 2006. If Kearns could maintain his .240/.333/.452 line and his defense over that many at-bats, he’d be a 5.1 win right fielder. That kind of production could make him the 8th best RF in the game, and I’m assuming no improvement.
However, it stands to reason that Kearns will indeed improve given the full-time job in ’06. My projection has him hitting .257 with 22 HR and 83 RBI in 486 at-bats this season. PECOTA sees an even bigger jump, to .275/.367/.510 in 459 plate appearances (21 HR). Bill James weighs in with .270/.363/.497 in 392 ABs, and ZiPS went with .258/.349/.480 in 431 ABs. PECOTA lists Pat Burrell and Dale Murphy among his comps. This is a player on the rise, and he makes $1.85MM.
Westbrook’s ability lies somewhere between his 3.38 ERA in 2004 and his 4.49 ERA last year. He’s a solid 210 inning guy, and an extreme groundball pitcher. Projections:
RotoAuthority: 3.98 ERA in 213 IP
PECOTA: 3.97 ERA in 199 IP
James: 3.91 ERA in 211 IP
ZiPS: 4.02 ERA in 195 IP
Wow. That’s as close to a consensus as four projection systems can get. But here’s the rub. In 2005, the Indians had the 3rd best defense in baseball. The Reds had the 3rd worst. Kullman might think he needs groundball pitchers to succeed in a park that inflates HRs by 16%, but that won’t work with a crappy defense. Westbrook does keep the ball in the park, but that’s only half the battle. The Reds need a guy who also misses bats. Westbrook’s $4.25MM salary for 2006 and $5.6MM option for ’07 are quite reasonable, however.
Some fine alternatives for the Reds would’ve been Josh Beckett and Esteban Loaiza. While neither would’ve come cheaply, both are built to succeed in Great American Ballpark. Out of possible remaining trade candidates, I think Matt Clement and Brad Penny could prosper as Reds. If the Dodgers were to send Jayson Werth elsewhere, it could open up some room for Kearns. The Red Sox would do well to groom a replacement for Trot Nixon.
Should the Indians add Kearns and Marte for Westbrook and Crisp this offseason, they’ll have improved their team while also making it younger and cheaper, a rare feat. What’s more, a Millwood-esque signing of Jeff Weaver could keep the starting rotation five-deep with 200 inning guys, a model perfected by the White Sox.
Reds Can O’Brien
Ken Rosenthal reports that the Reds have fired GM Dan O’Brien. It’s about time.
O’Brien was hired at the end of October in 2003. Now, O’Brien is an easy target for a lot of baseball fans. I think it’d only be fair to dedicate this post to the things he did right.
Hmmm. The Kent Mercker signing? He posted a 3.65 ERA in 61 innings for the Reds so far. Could’ve been worse.
You gotta respect the Sean Casey for Dave Williams swap. That was solid. Of the logjam created by Griffey, Kearns, Pena, Dunn, and Casey, Casey was the least desirable.
How about O’Brien’s pickup of Javier Valentin as a free agent? Valentin hit .281/.362/.520 for less than half a million bucks for the Reds.
And letting Danny Graves go was a good thing. Also, he got Joe Randa out of the way and let Edwin Encarnacion learn on the job; seems wise. Though he was the one who signed Randa.
Anybody else have a positive move from the O’Brien Era?
Griffey To Boston For Arroyo?
Well, Boston Dirt Dogs has an interesting one up just now. Boston’s WEEI 850 is reporting that a possible Ken Griffey Jr. for Bronson Arroyo trade could be in the works. I’ll do my best to find more.
On the surface, that seems like a terrible deal for the Red Sox. Arroyo is about to be locked in for three years at a great price, and Griffey is probably a lock to play less games in ’06 than he did in ’05. Not to mention Griffey’s huge contract and lousy defense.
Soriano, Benson, Casey Deals Close
Wow, I stepped out for a couple of hours and a billion trades/rumors occurred. Here’s three, with more in-depth analysis to come tomorrow.
Peter Gammons is saying the Dodgers are close to acquiring Alfonso Soriano for Jonathan Broxton. I suppose Soriano could take over at third base; he’s yet to play a Major League game in the outfield. Broxton would fit well in either the starting rotation or the ‘pen. The hefty right-hander split time between the roles at Double A Jacksonville in 2005. One of Broxton’s specialties (besides the palmball) is limiting the home run, a trait that will come in handy in a ballpark that inflates homers by 19%.
The Mets dumped Kris Benson and his salary on the Royals, acquiring southpaw reliever Jeremy Affeldt and perhaps Mike MacDougal. Affeldt has pretty lousy control and just an OK strikeout rate for a reliever; I’m not sure why everyone’s saying that he’ll shore up the Mets’ middle relief. MacDougal at leasts boasts a career 8.5 K/9. As for Benson, Kauffman Stadium isn’t much worse of a place to pitch than Shea. But with the Royals’ defense behind him, he’ll still see his ERA go up at least half a run.
The Reds unloaded Sean Casey‘s salary on the Pirates. Hopefully Casey will just be a stopgap until Brad Eldred learns to take a walk. Dave Williams gives up plenty of homers and allows plenty of baserunners, so his transition to Great American Ballpark will be anything but great. The move probably takes Austin Kearns off the market, as the outfielder logjam is solved now that Adam Dunn will play first.
Freel Would Be Good Fit For Cubs
Over at The Cub Reporter, Arizona Phil recently outlined a sensible option for the Cubs’ leadoff spot that hasn’t been mentioned much. He proposes that the Cubs should find a way to acquire the versatile Ryan Freel from the Reds. Freel compares favorably to Juan Pierre and is further away from free agency.
Update: Kearns For Jerome Williams
According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000, the Austin Kearns trade talk has gotten serious and Jerome Williams, not Sergio Mitre, would be included in the deal.
This new incarnation of the deal seems more equitable. Unlike Mitre, Williams has had success in the Major Leagues in his career. He pitched 106 innings after being dealt to the Cubs for LaTroy Hawkins, posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Williams posted a spectacular 2.10 ERA in five September starts.
Thanks to Alex
Austin Kearns For Sergio Mitre?
George Ofman of WSCR The Score is reporting from the winter meetings that the Reds have offered Austin Kearns to the Cubs in return for Sergio Mitre and and a minor leaguer. I was able to get in touch with Ofman, and he mentioned that the minor leaguer was possibly righthander Ricky Nolasco.
Kearns is still living off an excellent 2000 at A ball and 372 fluky at-bats with the Reds in 2002. He’s got 25 HR pop, but the rest of his appeal is pure perceived potential. Ah, alliteration.
Sergio Mitre has had an uninspiring Major League career with the Cubs, going 4-10 with a 6.12 ERA in 120 innings. If nothing else, Mitre can tell his grandkids about that miraculous 16 shutout inning stretch where he outdueled both Roy Halladay and Josh Beckett in 2005. Seriously, though, Mitre keeps the ball down and could be passable fifth starter one day.
Ricky Nolasco was almost traded to Texas in a Rafael Palmeiro deal back in 2003. Palmeiro vetoed the trade, and Nolasco remained in the Cubs’ system. He has a solid curveball and decent sinker. Nolasco will be 23 soon, and he posted spectacular numbers at Double A in 2005. The starter had previously failed in a 40 inning attempt at Triple A Iowa in 2004.
Thanks to Alex.
Rangers, Cubs, Reds Covet Jarrod Washburn
There seems to be a consensus among sportswriters that Jarrod Washburn will end up a Texas Ranger. I’ve spoken to Chicago Sun-Times writer Chris De Luca about Washburn, and he thinks new GM Jon Daniels is willing to overpay for a decent starter this winter.
Steve Phillips also picked the Rangers as Washburn’s destination. We all agree on his worth – a bit overrated after the 3.20 ERA, but a useful if somewhat overpaid 3rd starter. I ranked him 19th on the RotoAuthority Top 50 Free Agents List, just behind Jeff Weaver.
De Luca also thinks the Cubs are a possible suitor given Washburn’s desire to play near his hometown of LaCrosse, Wisconsin. The Brewers seemed like a logical choice, but De Luca informed me that Milwaukee has stated that they will not pursue Washburn. GM Doug Melvin has publicly stated that he won’t pay $8MM+ for a starter after the lackluster results of last year’s free agent signings.
It’s sounding more and more like the Cubs will come up with another starter to add to the stable. Then they’ll deal from that depth to acquire an outfielder. GM Jim Hendry may be more inclined to make a big splash with A.J. Burnett than give a lot of money to Washburn. Unlike last season when he had to get Sammy Sosa off the books, Hendry will act early and often. The Cardinals’ interest in Burnett may motivate Hendry to make a better offer to the starter. The Cards’ flirtation with Greg Maddux a few years back certainly influenced his ultimate return to Chicago.
A dark horse in the Washburn sweepstakes is the Reds. We know they’ll bring in some sort of starter – ESPN expects Cincinnati to make a run at Paul Byrd. Washburn is younger than Byrd, but Byrd allows fewer baserunners due to pinpoint control. One thing’s for sure: Cincinnati is a lot closer to LaCrosse than Arlington is.
If the Reds pass on both Washburn and Byrd, expect Kenny Rogers to be on their radar. He’s shown an above average ability to limit the long ball, a skill the Reds have come to appreciate after the Eric Milton debacle.