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Mariners Acquire Shawn Armstrong

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The Mariners and Indians have announced a deal that sends righty Shawn Armstrong to Seattle. Coming back in return is $500K in international bonus pool money, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer tweets.

Armstrong, 27, worked to a 4.38 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in his 24 2/3 MLB innings in the 2017 season. That said, he has averaged around 94 mph with his fastball in the majors and has a lifetime 11.3% swinging-strike rate in 43 1/3 total innings at the game’s highest level.

There’s a broader minor-league sample to consider as well. Armstrong posted better numbers in 2017 at Triple-A, where he racked up 11.1 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 over 29 1/3 frames of 3.07 ERA ball. And he had set down 152 batters on strikes in 98 2/3 innings at Triple-A across two prior campaigns.

Cubs, Indians Have Discussed Potential Danny Salazar Trade

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According to Bruce Levine of CBS Sports Chicago, the Cubs and Indians have “had trade talk conversations,” and right-hander Danny Salazar’s name has come up. The Indians are reportedly asking for left-handed hitting in exchange. Levine adds that there is “nothing close at this time.”

That the Indians are willing to entertain trade scenarios involving Salazar is a bit unexpected, but makes some sense considering the depth of the team’s rotation and the 2017 emergence of Mike Clevinger as a solid starter. With Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer also in the fold, the Indians are one of very few MLB teams who have an abundance of viable major league starters.

Perhaps the bigger surprise is that the Indians are asking for lefty hitters in exchange. Based on a quick glance at the Tribe’s roster, one might guess that the Tribe would want players who hit from the right side of the plate. Their projected Opening Day lineup for 2018 (via Roster Resource) includes six players capable of hitting left-handed (switch-hitters Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez among them), while their righty options beyond Edwin Encarnacion haven’t proven themselves to be above-average hitters. If the Indians are indeed looking for a left-handed hitter, perhaps it’s an indication that trade talks for Jason Kipnis are in the more advanced stages, though that’s purely my own speculation.

It’s unclear whether the talks for Salazar came before or after the recent signing of Drew Smyly, who carries both similar upside and similar injury risk. If they came (or continued) after the Smyly signing, one might wonder whether the Cubs intend to use one of Salazar or Smyly as a bullpen arm; four rotation spots would already seem to be filled by Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and the newly-signed Tyler Chatwood. Of course, Chicago might simply be taking a page out of the 2017 Dodgers’ book; L.A. patched together a rotation of oft-injured, high-upside starters who bounced between the rotation and the DL over the course of the season.

As for Salazar, he carries tremendous upside. The right-handed fireballer has been known to hit the high nineties on the radar gun, even touching 100 on some occasions throughout his career. He mixes in a split change which ESPN’s Mark Simon once rated as the best pitch in MLB. Salazar also routinely carries one of the best strikeout rates in baseball, and though his career 3.82 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, his 3.42 career xFIP suggests he’s been quite a bit better than that number would indicate.

Consistency and health are what hold Salazar back the most. Although he’s shown flashes of utter dominance (his first five starts back from the DL this past season come to mind), he’s never proven he can sustain his success over extended stretched of the season. As for his health, the righty has only topped 140 innings once during his major league career. He’s been through Tommy John surgery in the past, and has experienced a variety of elbow and shoulder issues in recent years.

That being said, his upside is tremendous, and if Salazar is truly available, I’d expect the Indians will field a lot of calls on him. In particular, it seems likely that the clubs interested in Matt Harvey would want to reach out to Cleveland’s front office.

Indians Have Interest In Logan Morrison

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If the Indians can’t re-sign Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison is on the team’s list of fallback options, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter).  Morrison is coming off a career year and would require a solid multi-year commitment, though he would come with a lower price tag than the most established Santana.  The Angels and Red Sox were rumored to have interest in Morrison earlier this winter.

Some more AL Central items…

  • The Ian Kinsler trade talks have reached the point where the Tigers have exchanged names with interested teams, GM Al Avila told reporters (including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press and MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery).  Kinsler has been seen as one of the likeliest players to be dealt this offseason, and it seems like a trade could happen at any point.  The Mets, Brewers, and Angels are teams with reported recent interest in Kinsler’s services.  Should Kinsler be traded, Avila said the Tigers would likely sign a veteran “safety net” second baseman to compete with Dixon Machado in Spring Training, with Woodbery noting that such a veteran would probably be a minor league signing.
  • The Tigers are also getting some calls on Shane Greene, Avila said (hat tip to MLB.com’s Jason Beck).  Greene’s first full-time season as a reliever delivered some good results, and he even recorded nine saves after stepping into the closer’s role in August.  While Greene would be another good trade chip for the rebuilding Tigers, Avila said the interest in Greene was “not to the point where we felt it [a trade] was a good thing to do.”
  • The Twins have been in touch with their own free agents (including Bartolo Colon, Matt Belisle and Chris Gimenez) as well as the agent of former Twins closer Brandon Kintzler, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reports (Twitter link).
  • Interestingly, Gimenez has also been answering Yu Darvish’s questions about Minnesota, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.  Gimenez was Darvish’s personal catcher when the two played together for the Rangers.  The Twins are known to be exploring the possibility of making an uncharacteristic big splash by signing Darvish, and the pitcher is apparently also doing his homework on the club.
  • One name apparently not on Minnesota’s target list is veteran reliever Bryan Shaw, as Mike Berardino (Twitter link) reports that the Twins “haven’t shown much interest” in the righty.

Indians To Sign Alexi Ogando

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The Indians have reached a minors deal with righty Alexi Ogando, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. He’s going to attempt to work as a starter in camp, per the report.

Ogando, 34, pitched mostly from the rotation in a 2017 stint with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles. Over 110 innings, he posted a 3.93 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in the notoriously hitter-friendly Korean league.

Between 2014 and 2016, Ogando had worked exclusively as a reliever. He managed a 3.94 earned run average in his 32-inning run with the Braves in 2016, averaging nearly 95 mph on his fastball, but also oversaw an ugly 29:23 K/BB ratio before being cut loose by Atlanta.

Rangers, Padres, Rockies Join Indians, Others In Pursuit Of Carlos Santana

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TUESDAY, 7:42am: Santana and his representatives are weighing offers from several teams, Hoynes reports, though it isn’t certain if he is close to accepting a deal.

MONDAY, 5:04pm: The Padres have indeed discussed Santana, but “it seems they’re still focused on” Hosmer, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).

1:51pm: The Rockies are also showing some interest in Santana, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets. Colorado has a clear opening at first base, though the team has indicated its top priorities lie elsewhere.

10:27am: Cleveland’s top extension offer to Santana was three years and $36MM, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets, and the organization would “likely go higher” now that he’s on the open market.

SUNDAY, 9:00pm: The Indians made Santana a contract offer, the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes reports.  While the offer wasn’t taken, the Tribe have been informed that they will get a chance to counter any offer Santana receives from another team that he considered acceptable.

6:32pm: Carlos Santana is already drawing quite a bit of interest this offseason, and Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer adds the Rangers and Padres to the list of other teams (including the Phillies, Red Sox, and Mariners) already linked to Santana on the rumor mill.

Texas is known to be focusing on adding pitching this winter, though the team’s offense also lacked some of the well-rounded attack of past years.  Santana would clearly be a big upgrade in the first base/DH hole left behind by free agent Mike Napoli, who struggled last year in a sub-replacement level season.  Santana’s arrival would bolster the Rangers’ lineup against the possible departure of Adrian Beltre after the 2018 season.

Installing Santana at first base would have a ripple effect throughout the Rangers’ lineup.  Joey Gallo would have to return to left field, with Nomar Mazara shifting to right and Shin-Soo Choo being limited to DH duties.  Top prospect Willie Calhoun had been mentioned as a possible candidate for regular DH or corner outfield duty, though Texas might want to give him a bit more seasoning rather than expect Calhoun to immediately contribute to a team that hopes to contend.

Previous reports seemed to downplay San Diego’s possible interest in Santana, though it could be that the Padres have since considered Santana for what seems to be an increasing desire to sign a first baseman.  The Padres have also had interest in Eric Hosmer, with the logic being that the 28-year-old Hosmer is young enough to still be productive in a few years when San Diego is theoretically finished with its rebuild.  Santana, by contrast, turns 32 in April, and while the slugger hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, he wouldn’t have the luxury of the occasional DH rest day while playing for a National League team.

Adding a first baseman would necessitate shifting Wil Myers into a corner outfield role, though the Padres may see that as an acceptable tradeoff for adding offense.  The Padres finished at or near the bottom of most major offensive categories last year, so a proven above-average hitter like Santana (who hit .259/.363/.455 with 23 homers over 667 PA last year and has posted a 123 wRC+ over his career) would add some much-needed pop to the lineup.

Santana rejected the Indians’ qualifying offer, and thus the Rangers and Padres would each need to surrender some compensation to sign the first baseman.  Texas would give up their second-highest draft pick and $500K of international signing bonus money, while San Diego would only have to surrender its third-highest draft pick.

Indians Have Interest In Matt Adams

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There are quite a few moving pieces on the market for corner infielders, so it’s conceivable that things could go in any number of different directions. At this point, it’s not even clear when or where the first dominoes will fall. Here’s the latest:

  • Fresh off of a non-tender by the Braves, first baseman Matt Adams has drawn interest from a few organizations, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Specifically, the Indians, Royals, and Nationals have all reached out to Adams’s representatives. While Cleveland and Kansas City could offer fairly significant roles to the left-handed hitter — who really is best utilized in a platoon capacity — the Nats unsurprisingly would consider him as a frequently used bench piece who might take some of the burden from Ryan Zimmerman. Atlanta was not able to find a taker for Adams before the tender deadline; he had projected to earn $4.6MM via arbitration, so it’d be surprising if he ended up receiving more than that on the open market. For the Indians, it seems, adding a player such as Adams would represent something of a “fallback,” as Crasnick terms it, if the team is unable to strike a new deal with Carlos Santana. MLBTR’s Kyle Downing just analyzed Santana’s free agent case and we have also rounded up the latest market chatter on one of the market’s top bats.
  • Having missed out on Giancarlo Stanton, the Cardinals are now scanning the rest of the market for offensive upgrades. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag looks at the team’s possible options, including free agents Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez. He notes that several upper-echelon third basemen might hold appeal on the trade market — which will come as little surprise to those that have followed the Cards’ trade rumblings for the last several months. Of course, it’s still unclear whether the Blue Jays (Josh Donaldson), Rays (Evan Longoria), or Orioles (Manny Machado) will make their stars available.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post tackles that subject, discussing the relative likelihood that any of those three will be shopped. And Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times addresses things from the Rays’ perspective, reporting that Longoria has not been given any indication from the organization about their plans. While he says he hopes to remain in Tampa Bay, he also acknowledges he could be “somewhere in limbo.” If a trade comes to pass, says Longoria, “I suppose my family and I will adjust.”
  • The top free agent third baseman, of course, is Mike Moustakas. His market is still taking shape, but the Angels have (as expected) engaged with his camp to some degree, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (Twitter links). That said, there’s no indication of momentum. From an outside perspective, it also seems less likely that the Halos would line up on Moustakas after landing Shohei Ohtani. Even less likely is Logan Morrison, though Fletcher adds that he’s also still on the radar.
  • Hosmer and Martinez are conceivably also targets for the Red Sox, as are Santana and others. As Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes, the organization has engaged agent Scott Boras on both players; perhaps unsurprisingly, he also suggests that Boras is pitching Boston on signing the pair in a bold move to revamp its lineup. Interestingly, Cafardo also says that Hosmer’s former club, the Royals, once reached an internal assessment that Hosmer could swat forty long balls annually at Fenway. Of course, the notoriously heavy groundball hitter has never launched more than 25 in a given season (that’s a mark he reached in each of the last two campaigns).

Mets Have Talked With Indians, Tigers About Trades For Second Baseman

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7:02pm: The Tigers’ efforts to trade Kinsler have “intensified” of late, Katie Strang of The Athletic reports (subscription required and recommended). Moving Kinsler will be a key area of focus for Detroit during the upcoming week, Strang adds, given that the team has a full 40-man roster with Thursday’s Rule 5 draft approaching. The Tigers are slated to pick first in the draft, and dealing Kinsler by then would give them room to select a player with that choice.

9:31am: According to Marc Carig of Newsday, the Mets have had talks about significant potential trades for Ian Kinsler of the Tigers and Jason Kipnis of the Indians. The Mets may also use the winter meetings to explore a deal with the Pirates for Josh Harrison, says Carig.

At this point, Carig clarifies, it seems as though the Mets have had much more dialogue with the Tigers regarding Kinsler; however there’s “some skepticism about a deal getting done there”.

It’s certainly no surprise to hear that a team with a need at second base has inquired on Kinsler. The last-place Tigers endured a rough first half last season that culminated in a decision to tear down and rebuild. Veterans J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Justin Verlander were all traded to different contending teams, and Detroit ultimately finished the season with just 64 wins. With no serious ability to contend next season, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd already pointed out that Kinsler seems like a prime trade candidate.

While Kinsler finished 2017 with his worst full season by fWAR (2.4), he’s a solid bounceback candidate for a Mets team with plans to push for a pennant in 2018. Kinsler hit just .236/.313/.412 this past season, but was seemingly held back by some terrible luck with BABIP (.244). At 35, he’s no sure bet to return to previous form, but considering he combined for 9.8 fWAR between 2015 and 2016, acquiring Kinsler could be well worth the risk for the Mets.

The news about talks for Kipnis are perhaps a bit more surprising. There’s been some speculation about Kipnis as a trade candidate this offseason; he’s coming off a down offensive year during which he hit just .232/.291/.414 and missed significant time due to shoulder and hamstring injuries, and he seems to have been displaced at the keystone by teammate Jose Ramirez. However, Kipnis is one of the more significant faces in the Indians franchise, and he’s been one of their best offensive players overall for the past half-decade. To this point, there’s been no indication from Cleveland’s camp that they’d be willing to trade Kipnis at all; the fact that they’ve had talks with the Mets about him seems to imply that they’re at least willing to explore trade scenarios.

Of course, there’s no real word as to the extent of the trade talks surrounding Kipnis. The report that the Mets have had more dialogue about Kinsler and that such a deal is met with skepticism seems to imply that negotiations for Kipnis are far from advanced. It could be that the Mets were simply doing their due diligence, and that the Indians were willing to listen. Regardless, Kipnis being available to any extent would add an interesting new twist to a second base market that no longer includes Dee Gordon.

While there’s not much word yet on the Mets’ reported interest in Harrison, he’d also be an upgrade to their current depth chart. Harrison has been a solid infielder for the Pirates over the past four seasons, and is capable of playing in the outfield and at third base as well. The Pirates haven’t yet signaled whether or not they’re making a push for contention, but if they decide to rebuild instead, Harrison would be one of the more obvious trade candidates. The 30-year-old is guaranteed $11.5MM for the remainder of his contract, which includes salary for 2018 season as well as buyouts for 2019 and 2020. Harrison hit .272/.339/.432 across 542 plate appearances for Pittsburgh last season.

Two Teams Have Made Offers To Bryan Shaw

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Dec. 9th: Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that the Mets made an offer to Shaw around Thanksgiving. Shaw, however, “might be inclined” to wait for closers Greg Holland and Wade Davis to sign in order to let the market for setup men establish itself.

Nov. 25th: Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reports via Twitter that the Twins are not one of the teams that made an offer to Shaw, according to a source with “direct knowledge”.

Nov. 24th: According to Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com, two separate teams have made multi-year offers to Indians free agent reliever Bryan Shaw. As of now, the identities of the two teams are not yet known.

Hoynes notes that the Mets are reportedly among the teams that have shown interest in the right-hander. Shaw has spent the last five seasons with the Indians, during which time newly-minted Mets manager Mickey Callaway was his pitching coach.

Shaw has long been one of baseball’s most durable relievers. Since coming to Cleveland in the three-team trade that sent Shin-Soo Choo to the Reds, the 6’1″ righty has logged at least 64 innings. During that time, he’s appeared in a major league-leading 378 games. That kind of consistency from a reliever is rare, making him a coveted asset in this year’s free agent crop. Shaw ranked 25th on this year’s iteration of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions. For what it’s worth, MLBTR picked Shaw to land with the Red Sox.

Durability wasn’t the only reason Shaw earned a spot in the top 25, however. The former second-round draft pick of the Diamondbacks has a lifetime 3.13 ERA, and has never posted a full-season mark higher than this year’s 3.52. And yet, despite a career-high ERA, Shaw managed to post his highest-ever fWAR total for a single season in 2017 (1.6 fWAR). While his 0.65 WPA for the season doesn’t quite paint the same picture, it’s difficult to argue that Shaw has provided great value to the Tribe in a setup role.

Shaw just turned 30 years old this month. It seems likely he’ll command at least a three-year contract.

Indians Could Pursue Non-Tendered Players

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The rebuilding Tigers are pursuing a pair of potential bounce-back starters, right-handers Chris Tillman and Mike Fiers, as well as Japanese closer Yoshihisa Hirano, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets. On the other hand, they’re not after free agent starters Jason Vargas, Jeremy Hellickson or ex-Tiger Anibal Sanchez, according to McCosky. Detroit’s interest in Tillman has been known since last month, and he and Fiers look like strong candidates to sign one-year deals after enduring rough 2017 campaigns. Hirano also figures to land a short-term pact because of his age (34 in March), though he ran roughshod over hitters as a closer in Japan for most of the past decade. The Tigers join the Cardinals as the second team with reported interest in the righty.

More on Detroit and two of its American League Central rivals:

  • Although the Twins voided their contract with Dominican shortstop prospect Jelfry Marte last month after he failed a physical, they still “have a shot” to re-sign the 16-year-old, according to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press (on Twitter). Marte’s next deal will unsurprisingly come with a lesser bonus than the $3MM the Twins had given him, relays Berardino, who adds that there are “no hard feelings” between the player and the team. The Twins made two trades on Wednesday that reduced their remaining international bonus pool space for 2017-18, but they still have $1.25MM available, Berardino notes.
  • If the Indians don’t re-sign free agent first baseman Carlos Santana and outfielder Jay Bruce, the recently non-tendered Matt Adams could make sense as a first base/designated hitter option, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com observes. Adams and Edwin Encarnacion would share the two positions, suggests Hoynes, who lists several other non-tendered players (Terrance Gore, Drew Smyly, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Jared Hughes, Hector Rondon and Bruce Rondon) as possible buy-low targets for the Indians.
  • The Twins have hired Pete Maki as their minor league pitching coordinator, Aaron Fitt of D1Baseball.com reports (on Twitter). Maki had been on Duke University’s staff since July 2015, serving as its pitching coach for two seasons. Duke had a combined four pitchers come off the board in the previous two drafts, the highest being fifth-rounder Bailey Clark (Cubs, No. 164) in 2016.
  • Catcher Derek Norris, whom the Tigers signed to a minor league contract Tuesday, will earn a base salary of $1.2MM if he cracks their roster, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Norris could also rake in $300K in incentives.

Indians Sign Dan Otero To Two-Year Deal

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The Indians announced today that they’ve extended right-handed reliever Dan Otero, agreeing to a two-year contract extension with a club option for a third year. The contract will buy out the ACES client’s final two years of arbitration eligibility and also give the team control over his first free-agent year. MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports (via Twitter) that Otero will be guaranteed $2.5MM on the deal. He’ll earn $1.1MM in 2018, $1.3MM in 2019 and has a $1.5MM club option with a $100K buyout. Otero can also earn $100K annually in bonuses tied to games finished.

Otero had already agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.3MM for the 2018 season this past Friday, so this new agreement will supersede that deal. It’s an eye-opener to see Otero agree to surrender a free-agent season for a minimal guarantee when he already had that deal in place, though it’s worth noting that arbitration deals like the one he agreed to last week aren’t fully guaranteed.

This contract, though, will afford Otero at least $2.5MM — a sum he wouldn’t have thought possible prior to the 2016 season when he was an unheralded waiver claim by the Indians. Set to turn 33 in February and with just over $3MM in career earnings to date, it seems that Otero simply prioritized taking the best guarantee that Cleveland was willing to offer.

While that’s not difficult to understand from a human perspective, the deal looks like a favorable one for the Indians from a baseball standpoint. Otero won’t blow anyone away with a fastball that averages just 90 mph, but he’s worked to an excellent 2.14 ERA in his 130 2/3 innings with Cleveland over the past two seasons. In that time, he’s averaged 6.5 K/9 against 1.3 BB/9 with just 0.6 HR/9 and a 63 percent ground-ball rate.

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