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Quick Hits: Humber, Kuroda, Indians, Mattingly

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The Astros declined their option on Philip Humber earlier today, capping what has been yet another trying season for the 30-year-old former No. 3 overall pick. Despite his struggles, Humber told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that he intends to keep playing: "I’m not hurt. I still enjoy coming to the park and I’m still relatively young. It’s one of those things that’s like, ‘Man, you walk away from it, are you going to look back and think I wish I could have kept going?’ There’s times in the past, I didn’t know if it was going to work out. It’s still fun. It beats working, you know?"

Here's more from around the league as the Rays celebrate a victory over the Indians, setting them up for a date with the Red Sox in the ALDS…

  • During a press conference yesterday, Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger) that he hopes Hiroki Kuroda will pitch for his team again in 2014. Cashman said that Kuroda was the Yanks' ace in 2013 but admitted that he wasn't sure what the future holds for the right-hander. McCullough quotes Kuroda as saying that while anything's possible, he hasn't given serious consideration to returning to Japan for his final season.
  • Indians CEO Paul Dolan deserves credit for sticking with team president Mark Shapiro and GM Chris Antonetti, writes Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The duo's presence helped lure manager Terry Francona to Cleveland, and Francona's presence helped to make the Indians a more attractive destination for free agents Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, Scott Kazmir, Jason Giambi and Ryan Raburn, adds Pluto.
  • Manager Don Mattingly says he's happy to be with the Dodgers and has no interest in the Yankees' job in the event that Joe Girardi doesn't return, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.  It's possible that Mattingly could be available this winter as L.A. holds a $1.4MM club option on his contract for 2014.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Indians Claim Tyler Cloyd, Designate Clay Rapada

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The Indians have claimed right-hander Tyler Cloyd off waivers from the Phillies and designated left-hander Clay Rapada for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster, the team announced via Twitter.

The 26-year-old Cloyd was rocked for a 6.56 ERA in 60 1/3 innings for the Phillies this season, averaging 6.1 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings with a 39.4 percent ground-ball rate. A 4.49 FIP suggests that Cloyd's abnormally high .365 batting average on balls in play and 64.5 percent strand rate helped to partially inflate his ERA. There's only so much room for optimism though, as his 86.3 mph average fastball velocity is one of the lowest you'll see from a right-handed starter. He has a 3.39 ERA and 3.6 K/BB ratio in 254 2/3 career innings at the Triple-A level.

Rapada, 32, pitched to a 1.12 ERA with 20 strikeouts and nine walks in 24 innings at Triple-A Columbus while in the Cleveland organization. He held lefties to a .188/.240/.261 batting line in the minors this season, which is par for the course for Rapada, against whom lefties have hit just .164/.255/.231 in 257 big league plate appearances. Rapada gets torched by right-handers though, having allowed a .345/.464/.611 line and clearly establishing himself as a pure left-handed specialist.

Rosenthal On Blue Jays, Rangers, Kemp, Francona

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports posted his latest edition of Full Count.  Here's a look at some of the highlights..

  • The Blue Jays constantly get calls on Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista and as always, they're willing to listen on anything.  The shortage of quality hitters out there could lead to better offers than they've gotten in the past, but their stance remains the same: neither one will be moved unless it leads to an improvement of their big league team.
  • Whether the Rangers are postseason-bound or not, their biggest need this winter will be a No. 3 hitter with Nelson Cruz hitting the open market.  The Marlins swear that they're keeping Giancarlo Stanton and Robinson Cano isn't a fit for a team that already has too many middle infielders.  One option could be Matt Kemp, if the Dodgers will part with him.
  • Indians manager Terry Francona has an out clause in his contract that will allow him to go elsewhere if the club fires GM Chris Antonetti, according to sources.  The length of Antonetti's contract isn't clear, but he has at least through 2014 and given their success, they're unlikely to make a GM change or lose Francona anytime soon.
  • A shakeup of the D'Backs coaching staff is imminent, the only question is how expansive it will be.  If Matt Williams bolts for a managerial job elsewhere, he could take a couple of coaches with him as well.

Free Agent Profile: Scott Kazmir

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Nine months ago, Scott Kazmir could not find a team willing to give him a Major League contract.  After all, the former phenom pitched (poorly) for the Sugarland Skeeters in 2012 and hadn't had big league success since 2008.  However, Kazmir's rise from the ashes began with rediscovered velocity in a bullpen session behind his house last summer, as chronicled by Howard Megdal of Sports on Earth, and now he's probably one of the 15 best free agent starting pitchers available.

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Strengths/Pros

Kazmir doesn't turn 30 years old until January, so by free agent standards he's still young.  His velocity has returned: he's averaging 92.5 miles per hour on his fastball, his best since his rookie season.  His fastball velocity is tied for fifth among all free agent starters, and only seven southpaw starters throw harder in all of baseball.  This year he's whiffed nearly 23% of the batters he's faced, a figure only three free agents have topped.

Additionally, this is the first year in his career Kazmir has walked fewer than three per nine innings.  The combination of strikeouts and control leads ERA estimator SIERA to peg him at 3.62, fourth best among free agent starters.

While Kazmir has put together a nice season, it's difficult to picture the Indians making a qualifying offer and risking a one-year, $14MM deal.  If they don't make such an offer, Kazmir will not be tied to draft pick compensation.

Weaknesses/Cons

Kazmir will likely finish the season with fewer than 160 innings, unless the Indians make the playoffs.  Though he earned the Indians' fifth starter job out of spring training, a right rib cage strain delayed his return to the Majors until April 20th.  Kazmir's innings total is also held down by his inability to go deep into games, as he's averaged about 5.4 frames per start.  He's averaged 17.5 pitches per inning, the 11th-highest in baseball for those with 100 innings.  He's also had some health scares earlier in his career, with DL time in '06 for shoulder inflammation and in '08 for an elbow strain.

The bigger issue is how unlikely Kazmir's story has been.  Years of data suggested he wasn't a Major League pitcher, and now he'll require a multimillion dollar commitment on the strength of 156 innings or so.  What if his velocity disappears again?  What if his arm responds poorly to the innings jump he made in 2013?  Any team signing Kazmir is taking a leap of faith.

2013 hasn't been a flawless year, anyway, as Kazmir has allowed more hits than innings pitched and has allowed 1.18 home runs per nine innings.  Generally I shrug off a .320 batting average on balls in play and a 12.3% home run per flyball rate, but those things did happen, and Kazmir's actual ERA is 4.34.

Personal

Kazmir grew up idolizing Nolan Ryan and later patterned himself after Billy Wagner, according to JockBio.com.  Kazmir's father worked for a Texas welding supply company run by Adam Dunn's uncle, and the two future big leaguers sometimes played Wiffle ball together, reported Albert Chen of SI.com.  Drafted 15th overall by the Mets in 2002, Kazmir was traded to the Rays in '04 for Victor Zambrano in an infamously lopsided deal.

Market

"I would love to stay here," Kazmir told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer this month in regard to re-signing with the Indians, adding, "I'm very interested…I'd love to contribute and continue to be with this group."  The Indians also have to determine the future of Ubaldo Jimenez, another coveted free agent starter.

Kazmir has earned over $30MM in his career, mostly by virtue of a 2008 three-year extension signed with the Rays.  It's too early to say whether he'll opt for the comfort of Cleveland, where he resurrected his career, or try to find the largest and longest contract possible on the open market given the uncertainty he faced over the last several years.  Kazmir is a Houston native, but it's unclear whether geography will be a factor in free agency.

Expected Contract

The bar for a two-year contract for a starting pitcher is not terribly high — Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Carlos Villanueva, and Kevin Correia reached it last offseason.  That third year can be hard to come by, and if Kazmir's main goal is security, perhaps a vesting option could be brokered by agent Brian Peters.  If Kazmir is simply trying to maximize his earnings and has faith in his rediscovered ability, he might prefer a one-year deal in the $8-10MM range, allowing him to further prove himself in 2014 before returning to free agency.

In the end, I expect Kazmir to sign a two-year, $16MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Jimenez, D’Backs, Cubs, Dodgers

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Ubaldo Jimenez has managed to turn things around as of late and is looking more like the pitcher that the Indians expected to have when they traded first-round picks Drew Pomeranz and Alex White for him more than two years ago.  His resurgence is incredibly well-timed, as he’ll be a free agent this winter.  What does he attribute the turnaround to?  Jimenez says that he’s no longer obsessing about getting his velocity back to where it once was and is instead focusing on mixing up his pitches, writes MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian.  Here’s more from around baseball..

  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers took responsibility for the team’s .500 record and acknowledges that neither he nor skipper Kirk Gibson are safe, writes Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com.  Towers didn’t get into specifics about his offseason plan to improve the roster, but he sounds pretty content with the offense as it stands.
  • Cubs skipper Dale Sveum doesn’t have a vote of confidence yet from team brass, but he understands that the process comes with the territory of being a big league manager, writes Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.
  • The Dodgers announced the signing of a relatively unknown Japanese prospect in 19-year-old right-hander Takumi Numata this week and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com attempts to profile him based off of the crumbs of information that are available.  
  • Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales are the last two people to blame for the Mariners’ woes this season, writes Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times.  Barring obvious bat improvements at DH and first base/outfield front, Baker says there’s nothing wrong with having both impending free agents return to the team in 2014.

Free Agent Profile: Ubaldo Jimenez

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When the Indians sent four minor leaguers — including a pair of first-round picks in Drew Pomeranz and Alex White — to the Rockies to land Ubaldo Jimenez in July 2011, they likely pictured a controllable ace that could lead their rotation for two and a half seasons. That didn't prove to be the case off the bat, but over the past five months, Jimenez has looked every bit the part of the pitcher they were hoping to acquire.  Jimenez-Ubaldo

Jimenez has a 2.72 ERA with 150 strikeouts against 65 walks in his past 145 2/3 innings dating back to April 29, and his 43.5 percent ground-ball rate is closer to his career level than last season's surprisingly low 38.4 percent mark. Jimenez's well-timed surge has likely changed him from a one-year deal type of pitcher to a multiyear asset that many teams will covet.

Strengths/Pros

Jimenez will turn just 30 years old in January, making him one of the youngest starters available on the free agent market. Only Phil Hughes is decisively younger, while Josh Johnson and Scott Kazmir are roughly the same age. Each comes with red flags, as Hughes has had a rough season and been bumped from New York's rotation, while Johnson has been injured and ineffective all season, and Kazmir comes with his a long injury history and threw only 63 big league pitches from 2011-12.

Jimenez also racks up strikeouts frequently and is doing so at the highest rate of his career in 2013 (9.1 K/9). He comes without a significant platoon split, as right-handers have a career .689 OPS against him versus .709 for left-handers. In 2013, he's actually had a slight reverse-platoon split. When Jimenez is on his game, it doesn't matter what side of the plate opposing hitters are standing on.

He's also very durable. Jimenez has started at least 31 games in each season from 2008-12 and is on pace to start at least 30 contests in 2013. Among upcoming free agents, only Bronson Arroyo and Tim Lincecum have made more starts since 2008. Arroyo is seven years older, while Lincecum hasn't recovered from his struggles and diminished velocity like Jimenez has. He's been on the disabled list just once in his career, when he missed just over two weeks with a cut on the cuticle of his right thumb — a non-concerning injury to say the very least.

Weaknesses/Cons

Even when he's at his best, Jimenez's control has never been great. He's averaged 4.1 walks per nine innings in more than 1,200 career innings, and he's twice led the league in wild pitches. His ground-ball rate exceeded 50 percent with ease early in his career, but that number has dropped in recent seasons. His 43.5 percent mark in 2013 is a step up from 2012's mark of 38.4 percent, but he's still below the league average.

Jimenez's ground-ball rate isn't the only thing that's dropping; his once blistering 96.2 mph fastball has cooled off all the way down to an average of 91.7 mph this season. It's worth noting that like his ground-ball rate, his velocity has ticked back upward late in the season. Baseball Prospectus' Ben Lindbergh recently profiled (subscription required) some mechanical changes that Jimenez made to slow down his delivery, but even if those are to credit for his turnaround, one scout told Lindbergh that Jimenez's delivery is still flawed.

Personal

Jimenez enjoys spending time with his family and is very interested in music, as he demonstrated by showing off his drum skills in a visit to the MLB Fan Cave in 2012. However, those who know him describe him as driven and passionate about the game of baseball, noting that his main focus –especially when he isn't pitching up to his capability — is delivering his best possible performance on the field.

Market

The Indians hold an $8MM option on Jimenez, but the 2011 trade triggered a clause that will allow him to void the option if he wishes. He's a virtual lock to do that, which will force the Indians to decide whether or not to extend Jimenez a qualifying offer. Cleveland, who typically operates on a tight budget, already has more than $48MM in 2014 salary commitments before arbitration raises to Justin Masterson, Chris Perez, Michael Brantley, Drew Stubbs and Vinnie Pestano. A qualifying offer of nearly $14MM would seem to be too great a risk, especially given potential in-house replacements like Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer.

The Indians may yet be interested in retaining him — they did exercise a $5.75MM club option last October in hopes of just this type of turnaround — but Jimenez will undoubtedly appeal to a number of teams. As a pitcher who has endured recent struggles, he may prefer to seek maximum security in terms of years. Teams such as the Angels, Giants, Padres, Twins, Yankees, Orioles, Pirates, Brewers and Rockies could all be on the lookout for starting pitching help this offseason.

Expected Contract

Jimenez has age and durability on his side as he heads into a free agent market that will consist of numerous teams looking to bolster their rotations. Many suitors could liken Jimenez's final five months of 2013 to his strong 2010 campaign and consider signing him an opportunity to get an ace-caliber starter at a below-market rate.

It's hard to peg someone who has had a comparable career, but Jorge De La Rosa was a similar high-strikeout, spotty command pitcher following the 2010 season when he signed a contract that guaranteed him three years and $30MM (two years, $21MM plus a $9MM player option that, if triggered, gave Colorado an $11MM club option for a fourth year). That contract is outdated, however, and De La Rosa never possessed Jimenez's durability.

If Jimenez decides he wants to risk a one-year deal in hopes of repeating 2013 and cashing in on a five-year deal at age 31, he could sign a contract in the one-year, $14MM range or simply accept a qualifying offer, should Cleveland extend one. A player with Jimenez's upside would certainly warrant $14MM on a one-year contract, however, the safer play would be for Jimenez to sign a contract in the three-year range.

Assuming he performs over the next three seasons, he could still hit the open market again heading into his age-33 season and earn another sizable contract. As a reliable innings eater with ace-caliber upside, I expect that he will sign a three-year, $39MM contract, with an outside chance that a team makes an Edwin Jackson type of offer (four years, $52MM).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Rivera, Jimenez, Hudson, Pirates

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While there has been a great deal of attention paid to Mariano Rivera's farewell tour, he's not the only MLB vet who could call it quits after this season, writes MLB.com's Doug Miller.  The Indians' Jason Giambi and the Rockies' Todd Helton seem likely to call it a career and Yankees hurler Andy Pettitte could retire – again.  Here's tonight's look around the Majors..

  • Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus breaks down the changes in Ubaldo Jimenez's mechanics that have led to a resurgence since his first three starts of the season (subscription required). Two of the Indians' hurler's last three starts have been 10-strikeout, zero-walk outings, and he's posted a 2.82 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 since April 29 (24 starts). It makes sense for Jimenez to void his option and seek a multi-year deal, in Lindbergh's mind, though he carries significant risk as his mechanics are still flawed.
  • The Diamondbacks face an interesting situation with Daniel Hudson this offseason, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Hudson, who underwent his second Tommy John surgery this year and hasn't pitched since early 2012, is eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason. Hudson says he "would be open to taking about pretty much anything (contract-wise) if it meant staying [in Arizona]." Hudson feels that he may have to come back as a reliever and is open to that role.
  • The Pirates' 2007 hires of club president Frank Coonelly and General Manager Neal Huntington are paying off in a big way, writes MLB.com's Tom Singer.  

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Central Notes: Pirates, Giambi, Baker, White Sox

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With a 1-0 win over the Rangers Monday night, the Pirates clinched their first winning season since 1992. 2011 draftee Gerrit Cole pitched seven dominant innings for the Bucs on Monday, and the Pirates have, of course, gotten big contributions from draftees like Andrew McCutchen (2005) and Pedro Alvarez (2008). But much of the Pirates' success in 2013 has stemmed from Neal Huntington's spectacular 2012-2013 offseason. He signed Francisco Liriano and Russell Martin, who have emerged as two of the Pirates' top players behind McCutchen. He also re-signed Jason Grilli, who dominated as the Pirates' closer, and traded for Mark Melancon, who has been even more dominant and who stepped in as closer after Grilli got hurt.

Mike Axisa of CBS Sports digs deep into the construction of the 2013 Pirates, noting that many of this year's Bucs also came from earlier trades. He singles out the then-unpopular Nate McLouth trade, which brought back Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton, as an important one for the Bucs. Here are more notes from the Central divisions.

  • Jason Giambi wants to return to play for the Indians next season, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. "I would love to play next year," Giambi says. "Hopefully it will be here. I love it here. I love the direction the team is going and the things we've got going here." Giambi is hitting .186/.278/.372 in 198 plate appearances this season.
  • The Cubs are giving Scott Baker starts in September, but it's unclear whether he'll be playing for them next year, writes Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com. Baker made his first start since 2011 on Sunday, after missing most of the last two seasons with an elbow injury. The Cubs figure to have Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson in their rotation next year, with a variety of possible back-end options, including Jake Arrieta, Carlos Villanueva and Chris Rusin. Mooney notes that the Cubs will likely pursue more starting pitching in the offseason.
  • The White Sox will pursue position players via free agency and trade this offseason, MLB.com's Scott Merkin reports. Sox GM Rick Hahn says he will be "open to" trading young pitching in order to acquire hitters. The White Sox's top young-ish pitchers at the big-league level include Jose Quintana, Nate Jones, Addison Reed and Hector Santiago. Chris Sale would obviously be a very valuable trade chip, but he's an elite talent and the White Sox signed him to an extension before the season, so that appears unlikely.

Minor Moves: Gonzalez, Fedroff, Rincon, Okajima

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We'll keep track of today's minor moves here..

  • The Astros outrighted Edgar Gonzalez to Double-A Corpus Christi, according to the MLB.com transactions page. Houston signed Gonzalez to a minor-league deal in May after he was designated for assignment by the Blue Jays and opted for free agency after clearing waivers. Gonzalez struggled in his 10 innings with the Astros' major league club, coughing up a 7.20 ERA. 
  • The Indians outrighted outfielder Tim Fedroff and shortstop Juan Diaz to their Triple-A affiliate, according to the MLB.com transactions page. Fedroff, 26, has hit .242/.334/.306 in 594 plate appearances for the Triple-A Columbus Clippers this year. Diaz, 24, has a .242/.317/.348 line over 495 plate appearances for the same team.
  • The Royals outrighted third baseman Edinson Rincon to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, according to the MLB.com transactions page. He's appeared in just 24 games for Royals minor league affiliates this season.
  • The Reds released Justin Freeman, according to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com (on Twitter). Freeman gave up two runs in a one-inning appearance for the Reds this year, but has a 3.57 ERA in 307 1/3 career minor league innings.
  • The Athletics announced that Hideki Okajima has been outrighted to the club's Triple-A affiliate. The veteran reliever was designated for assignment by Oakland earlier this week to create space for fellow bullpen arm Pat Neshek.  The 37-year-old Okajima pitched to a 4.22 ERA for Triple-A Sacramento with 9.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 42 2/3 innings of work. He also saw some brief time in the Majors with Oakland this season, allowing a run on seven hits and a pair of walks in four innings of work.
  • The outright of Okajima three leaves players in DFA limbo, according to the DFA Tracker: James McDonald, Alex Liddi,and Hector Ambriz.

Quick Hits: Ricketts, Perez, Morales, Konerko

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Closer is "the most overvalued position in baseball," Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes, an opinion shared by no less an authority than Hall-of-Famer closer Dennis Eckersley.  Kepner notes that teams often err in signing closers to expensive contracts and then end up using replacement closers that were already on their rosters in the first place.  “I don’t want to take away anything from what I did, but it’s not as tough as you think," Eckersley said. “You could groom somebody to do it who’s on the staff, if you manage it the right way."

While the agents of this year's free agent stoppers compose their counter-arguments, here are some more news items from around baseball…

  • Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts isn't planning any major payroll increases in the near future, telling Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that, "You can’t just throw money at the problem. We have to build the organization from the ground up. And that’s what we’re doing right now."
  • Chris Perez will be shopped by the Indians this offseason, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer predicts, and Pluto thinks Perez will be pitching elsewhere in 2014.  Perez will earn a raise from his current $7.3MM salary in the arbitration process and Pluto feels the Tribe will want to move him rather than pay the closer that much.  Perez's solid season could help his trade value, as Pluto notes that the Indians found only an "iffy" market for Perez when they attempted to deal him last winter.
  • "In a strict, WAR sense, [Kendrys Morales] may not compute to be worth $14 million or more per season. But the real cost the Mariners will have to weigh is what it would be like without him," The Seattle Times' Geoff Baker writes.  While Morales has slumped lately, Baker argues that the M's are still short of big bats and thus need to at least extend Morales a qualifying offer.
  • Paul Konerko answered a simple "No" to questions about any decisions on his playing future, MLB.com's Scott Merkin reports.  We heard yesterday that Konerko was telling friends he wanted to keep playing in 2014, but the White Sox captain reiterated his stance that he would wait until a later date to make a decision.
  • Fangraphs' Dave Cameron looks at which free agent hitters should or shouldn't receive qualifying offers from their current teams this winter.
  • Neal Huntington would win a fictitious "MLB Comeback Executive of the Year" award, MLB.com's Tom Singer writes.  The criticism faced by the Pirates GM has turned to praise as his recent moves have the Bucs on the cusp of their first playoff berth since 1992.
  • Despite Ryan Vogelsong's tough season, Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com (via Twitter) thinks the Giants will pick up his $6.5MM team option for 2014 if the righty remains healthy.  Vogelsong has a 5.49 ERA in 14 starts, but entering tonight's action, Vogelsong had posted a 2.93 ERA over five starts since returning from the disabled list.
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