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Arbitration Eligibles: Cleveland Indians

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Indians are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Masterson will be entering his contract year in 2014 and projects to earn a strong salary his last time through arbitration.  He made his first All-Star team in 2013, and posted a 3.45 ERA in 193 innings overall.  His last start came on September 2nd, as he was knocked out by an oblique strain and assumed a relief role upon his return because he did not have time to build up his stamina.  Masterson had two sub-4.00 ERA seasons out of four in Cleveland, although he has not yet put together one with a strong strikeout rate and a walk rate below 3.0 per nine.  If the Indians are to extend the 28-year-old groundballer this offseason, a five-year deal between those of John Danks ($65MM) and Jered Weaver ($85MM) would make sense.

Tomlin had Tommy John surgery in August last year, and spent most of his season in the minors after finishing rehab.  The Indians may see fit to non-tender him.

Brantley had a decent year, although he hasn't done anything that would warrant a multiyear extension.  Stubbs seems stretched as more than a fourth outfielder, and with a $3.8MM projection, the Indians should consider non-tendering him.  Marson's season was ruined by an April collision, after which he battled a neck sprain and shoulder injury.  He appeared in only three games, and is a candidate to be cut loose.

In Rzepczynski, Pestano, Wood, and Herrmann, the Indians have four arbitration eligible relievers.  Rzepczynski joined the Indians in a July trade with the Cardinals and was excellent in 27 appearances for the Tribe.  He's penciled in to next year's bullpen.  Pestano, once the heir apparent to former closer Chris Perez, battled an elbow injury and lost velocity this year, and was optioned upon the Indians' acquisition of Rzepczynski.  Pestano still qualifies as a Super Two, and is still worth retaining for 2014.

Wood, who had Tommy John surgery in May 2012, was claimed off waivers by the Indians from the Royals last November.  He remained in the minors after his rehab stint ended, though he earned a September call-up due to solid work in Triple-A.  Though he has control issues, Wood is probably worth the roster spot.  Herrmann had Tommy John in March of this year, picking up service time in 2013 while spending the entire year on the DL.  He would also be cheap to retain.

Assuming the Indians tender contracts to Masterson, Brantley, Rzepczynski, Pestano, Wood, and Herrmann, they're looking at an estimated $17.5MM for six arbitration eligible players.  However, it is far from certain Stubbs, Tomlin, and Marson will be non-tendered, and they represent an additional potential $5.9MM.

Indians Extend Qualifying Offer To Ubaldo Jimenez

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As expected, the Indians have extended a qualifying offer to free agent Ubaldo Jimenez, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (via Twitter).  The one-year, $14.1MM QO ensures that the Indians will receive draft pick compensation if he goes elsewhere.

Jimenez could find a ripe market this winter given the lack of quality starting pitching available.  Many believe that the two-year, $35MM deal given to Giants hurler Tim Lincecum also boosts the value of the 29-year-old.  A long-term deal for Jimenez in Cleveland seems unlikely, but they'd happily take him back in 2014 for $14.1MM.

Jimenez, who turns 30 in January, posted a 3.30 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate in 182 2/3 innings this season.  Things were rocky for Jimenez in 2011 and '12, but his turnaround in 2013 has completely altered his stock heading into free agency.

Indians Sign J.C. Ramirez

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The Indians announced (on Twitter) that they have signed right-hander J.C. Ramirez to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Cleveland has also re-signed infielder Ryan Rohlinger to a minor league deal and invited him to Spring Training as well.

Ramirez, 25, allowed 20 runs in 24 innings for the Phillies this season en route to an ugly 7.50 ERA. He walked nearly as many batters as he struck out (15 BB, 16 K) but posted a respectable 4.04 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in 49 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

The 30-year-old Rohlinger hit .266/.353/.367 with five homers in 372 plate appearances at Triple-A Columbus this season, splitting his time between shortstop, third base and second base. Rohlinger also has big league experience, totaling 72 plate appearances with the Giants from 2008-11, though he managed just a .134/.183/.194 batting line.

Ubaldo Jimenez Voids Option

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The Indians exercised their $8MM club option on right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez, but as expected, he has voided the option and become a free agent, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Because Jimenez voided the option, the Indians will not have to pay the $1MM buyout.  Jimenez-Ubaldo

Jimenez, who turns 30 in January, pitched to a 3.30 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate in 182 2/3 innings this season. Those numbers don't tell the whole story of how dominant Jimenez was for most of the season; 28 percent of the earned runs allowed by Jimenez occured in his first four starts. From April 29 through season's end, Jimenez pitched to a 2.61 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9.

As I noted in my free agent profile for Jimenez, he will be one of the most desirable free agent pitchers on the market due to his relative youth, dominant finish and previous success with the Rockies in 2009-10. At the time, I projected a three-year, $39MM contract for Jimenez, but if I could take that prediction back, I'd probably increase it in the wake of Tim Lincecum's two-year, $35MM contract with the Giants. Jimenez and his agents at SFX seem unlikely to settle for a one-year, $4MM increase over Lincecum, who was himself an NL West ace at the same time as Jimenez before enduring a similar decline to the one Jimenez experienced from 2011-12. A three-year deal with a higher average annual value or even a four-year deal in the range of Edwin Jackson's $52MM contract with the Cubs definitely seems possible for Jimenez at this point.

Jimenez was originally acquired by the Indians in a July 2011 blockbuster that sent former first-round picks Drew Pomeranz and Alex White to Colorado along with right-hander Joe Gardner and first baseman Matt McBride. The wheels immediately came off for Jimenez in Cleveland, though Colorado didn't fare much better. White and Pomeranz, the two centerpieces, both flopped with the Rockies. White was sent to Houston in an offseason trade that netted setup man Wilton Lopez (White required Tommy John this season), and Pomeranz has yet to establish himself.

I noted in Spring Training that barring a turnaround for Pomeranz or Jimenez, the trade looked like a lose-lose deal. Jimenez has clearly swung the deal in the favor of the Indians, as he helped propel them to an improbable playoff berth this season, and Cleveland now stands to gain a compensatory draft pick once Jimenez inevitably turns down a $14.1MM qualifying offer (the deadline for an offer is Monday).

In addition to Jimenez, Cleveland is also set to lose lefty Scott Kazmir to free agency. If the Indians are unable to retain either free agent, it would make sense to see GM Chris Antonetti pursue a veteran starting pitcher on the free agent market to supplement their current rotation of Justin Masterson, Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Indians Decline Jason Kubel’s Option

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The Indians have declined their $7.5MM club option on Jason Kubel, the team announced via press release. Kubel will receive a $1MM buyout, which the Diamondbacks are on the hook for following the Aug. 30 trade that sent him from Arizona to Cleveland.

Kubel was acquired for a PTBNL (later revealed to be Matt Langwell) and received only 23 plate appearances for the Tribe down the stretch. He collected just three hits in 18 official at-bats, though he walked five times, so he did manage to get on base at a .348 clip in his brief time with Cleveland.

Kubel belted a career-high 30 home runs in his first season with the DIamondbacks in 2012, but he slumped terribly and battled a quadriceps issue in 2013. Kubel spent two weeks on the DL with the issue and wound up slashing a paltry .216/.293/.317 between the D-Backs and Indians. Because he grades out as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the league, both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference agreed that he played at a sub-replacement level in 2013.

This year marked the first time since 2006 that Kubel failed to produce an OPS+ of at least 105, so he's a decent candidate to rebound with the bat. His career-high in homers came in 2012, as I mentioned before, but his best overall season at the plate came in 2009 when he slashed .300/.369/.539 with 28 homers for the Twins.

Indians Release Chris Perez

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The Indians announced that they have released closer Chris Perez. The right-hander would have been eligible for arbitration for the final time this winter, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $9MM salary, making him a clear non-tender candidate. Perez-Chris By releasing Perez now, the Indians are essentially non-tendering him, but they won't have to use a 40-man roster spot on a player they knew they weren't going to retain. Likewise, it's beneficial to Perez, as it gives him and agent Nez Balelo of CAA additional time to explore the free agent market.

The 28-year-old Perez earned $7.3MM this season and pitched to a 4.33 ERA in 54 innings. Perez saved 25 games and posted a solid 9.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9, but he became shockingly homer-prone and wilted in the season's final two months, posting a 7.52 ERA with seven homers allowed in his final 20 1/3 innings of work.

Originally acquired along from the Cardinals (along with fellow right-hander Jess Todd) in exchange for Mark DeRosa, Perez has served as the Tribe's closer for the past four seasons. In 267 2/3 career innings with Cleveland, he's registered a solid 3.33 ERA and saved 124 games, averaging 8.4 strikeouts per nine frames along the way.

Perez will join a crowded market for closers that also includes Joe Nathan, Brian Wilson, Fernando Rodney, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, Kevin Gregg and Edward Mujica. His late season struggles and the stiff competition on the free agent market might make it difficult for him to land a closing gig this offseason. He comes with a bit of personal baggage, having recently pleaded no-contest and being convicted of misdemeanor drug abuse after having marijuana shipped to his home. Perez was fined, placed on probation for a year and will speak to youth about drug use (per the Associated Press).

With Perez out of the picture, the Indians will have some work to do at the back of their bullpen. Fellow right-hander Joe Smith is also a free agent, and Vinnie Pestano experienced quite a bit of regression in 2013.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Indians Re-Sign Jason Giambi, Acquire Colt Hynes

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The Indians announced that they have re-signed Jason Giambi to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training and also acquired left-hander Colt Hynes from the Padres in exchange for cash considerations.

Giambi will turn 43 in January and managed just a .183/.282/.371 batting line in 2013. He was a beloved member of the Indians clubhouse however, and provided a number of pinch-hit home runs, including a pair of dramatic walk-off shots. On a minor league deal, there's little risk for Cleveland to bringing him back and seeing if he can force his way onto their roster with a big Spring Training performance.

Hynes, 28, was one of two left-handers to be designated for assignment by the Padres last week in order to create roster space for starters Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland, each of whom was returning from the 60-day disabled list (Tommy Layne was also DFA'ed). A former 31st-round draft pick of the Friars, Hynes made his big league debut this season but allowed 17 runs in 17 innings of work with a 13-to-9 K/BB ratio. He was dominant in the minors, however, posting a 1.52 ERA with an otherworldly 58-to-2 K/BB ratio in 47 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

AL Central Notes: Royals, Asdrubal, Indians, Hahn

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A few items from around the AL Central…

  • After making a big push to contend in 2013, the Royals need to be willing to raise payroll to put the team over the top next season, Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star opines.  "If there was ever a time the Royals had both the resources and motivation to make a push for the short-term, this is it," Mellinger writes.
    Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/10/30/4587620/royals-mantra-must-be-spend-now.html#storylink=cpy
  • The Indians won't move Asdrubal Cabrera this offseason, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer predicts during his podcast with Dan Labbe.  Shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor isn't ready and is coming off a significant back injury, and Mike Aviles is a better fit for the Tribe as a bench player.  Cabrera hit only .242/.299/.402 in 562 PA in 2013 and will be a free agent following the 2014 season.
  • "There is so much focus on the offense, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Tribe approaches upgrading its defense this winter," MLB.com's Jordan Bastian writes in an examination of the Indians' fielding numbers.  Cleveland had a team UZR/150 of -4.5 in 2013, the fifth-worst UZR/150 of any club in baseball.
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn told reporters (including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune) that he'd like to get his team back on the winning track as quickly as the Red Sox did from 2012 to 2013 but that might not involve mining the free agent market as much as Boston did.  "There's not going to be a free agent — premium or otherwise — who we don't view as helping us that we won't check in on at least….We're not ruling anything out.  But the options in the free-agent market probably won't be quite as robust as some trade opportunities," Hahn said.  The bigger-picture plan for Hahn is to build from within rather than just pursue "short-term fixes." 
  • In AL Central news from earlier today, White Sox second baseman Gordon Beckham is drawing trade interest from the Blue Jays, and the Tigers will not be re-signing free agent catcher Brayan Pena.

AL Central Notes: Konerko, Abreu, Jimenez, Ausmus

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The Fielding Bible released its list of the best defensive players in all baseball, and one of only two back-to-back names is Alex Gordon of the Royals. (Of course, the other – Yadier Molina – has accumulated six total nods.) Elsewhere in the AL Central …

  • First baseman Paul Konerko is apparently unsure of how to interpret the White Sox' signing of Jose Dariel Abreu, He said he doesn't "know what the story is behind that" – referring to Abreu's long-term deal — as reported by Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). A meeting between player and team has yet to be put on the schedule, according to Kane.
  • Meanwhile, Abreu's deal has seen mixed reactions. Count Dan Farnsworth of Fangraphs in favor of the deal: he predicts that Abreu will be one of the game's 25 best hitters, making him well worth his contract.
  • The Indians will "almost certainly" make a qualifying offer to starter Ubaldo Jimenez, says Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Echoing other recent reports, Bastian says that the team would like to retain him on a one-year deal in the QO range, but will not be interested if his price tag approaches the $35MM given the similarly situated Tim Lincecum. While opinions have varied as to whether Lincecum's deal will have a real impact on the open market, it could have a fairly direct bearing on Jimenez since it takes one competitor out of the free agent supply.
  • Bastian also opines that the Indians will most likely shop for a mid-tier rotation piece while aiming to extend Justin Masterson. MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently previewed the Tribe's offseason, discussing the internal rotation options and noting that the club could well need a replacement for Jimenez.
  • Brad Ausmus has interviewed for the Tigers' managerial opening, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports via Twitter. For more details, see this article from John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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Fed up after a 2012 season in which they went 68-94 and allowed 178 runs more than they scored, the Indians attempted to force their way into contention by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn the following offseason. Cleveland improved by 24 games in 2013 and made the postseason for the first time since 2007, falling in a one-game playoff against the Rays. They'll aim to repeat that success in 2013, but first they'll need to patch up their pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles

Contract Options

  • Ubaldo Jimenez, $8MM club option, $1MM buyout; Jimenez may void option after being traded by Rockies
  • Jason Kubel, OF: $7.5MM mutual option, $1MM buyout

Free Agents

The Indians' additions of Swisher and Bourn were important parts of the their 2013 season, but those weren't the only reasons they succeeded. Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana continued to emerge as top young players. Yan Gomes, acquired the previous offseason in a relatively minor trade with the Blue Jays, caught 85 games and was one of Cleveland's best hitters. And Ryan Raburn posted a ridiculous .272/.357/.543 line in a part-time role. Meanwhile, the Indians' starting pitchers — primarily Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Corey Kluber, Scott Kazmir and Zach McAllister — were very reliable, which might not have seemed that likely at the beginning of the year.

The Indians' rotation will likely be the focus of much of their offseason. Kazmir is a free agent, and Jimenez essentially is as well. Danny Salazar, coming off a brilliant season split between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors, will take over one of their spots, but that still leaves one opening. It's not impossible that Kazmir will be back, but it's very unlikely that Jimenez will be. After Masterson, Salazar, Kluber and McAllister, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer are probably the Indians' next options; Carrasco is a perfectly reasonable depth piece (if not more), but Bauer did not even pitch well at Triple-A in 2013.

The right side of the Indians' infield is relatively set, with Swisher as the primary starter at first and Kipnis at second. (Swisher could also start in the outfield if need be, freeing the Indians to pursue another first baseman, but the free agent market at first base is not particularly strong.) Asdrubal Cabrera is still Cleveland's shortstop, although the Indians could consider trading him this offseason, given his $10MM salary and the presence of top prospect Francisco Lindor. Lindor does not turn 20 until November and probably will not make his big-league debut until late 2014, at the earliest, so if the Indians were to trade Cabrera, they could look for a free agent shortstop or hand the position to Mike Aviles.

Lonnie Chisenhall will likely play third; the former first-round pick has not managed to stick in parts of three seasons in the Majors, but he only turned 25 this month and has hit well at Triple-A. Aviles, who got 37 starts for the Indians at third in 2013, will likely pick up starts at third yet again if Chisenhall continues to struggle. Gomes and Santana will continue on as the Indians' catchers, with Santana also picking up starts at first and DH. The Indians also apparently have interest in keeping Jason Giambi for 2014, either as a player or a coach.

Bourn and Michael Brantley will occupy two outfield spots, which leaves one open. Drew Stubbs hit just .233/.305/.360 in 2013; given his defense and the fact that he's relatively cheap, it might still be worth tendering him a contract, but the Indians likely won't want to go into Spring Training with him penciled in as a starter. The Indians do have an in-house alternative in Ryan Raburn, who was revelatory in 2013. His spectacular hitting was so far out of character, though, that it's hard to see him repeating it, particularly if he doesn't get 45% of his plate appearances against lefties again. Anyway, even if the Indians acquire another outfielder, finding at bats for Raburn shouldn't be hard.

In the bullpen, the Indians may find themselves looking for a new closer, given Chris Perez's struggles down the stretch and his projected 2014 salary of $9MM. If the Indians do indeed non-tender Perez, young righty Cody Allen, who posted 11.3 K/9 while throwing mid-90s gas last season, would be an excellent candidate to replace him. In addition to Perez, several other relievers could depart, including Joe Smith, Rich Hill and Matt Albers. Along with Allen, Bryan Shaw and Marc Rzepczynski are the only obvious returnees. The Indians could promote an arm or two for the minors, but it still looks like they may need to sign a reliever or two out of free agency.

The Indians, then, could have three key items on their to-do list: replacing Jimenez and/or Kazmir; adding a hitter to play either first base or right field, whichever Swisher doesn't occupy; and buying themselves a new bullpen. Even after drawing just 1.5MM fans in 2013, the Indians say they'll be able to field a "contending team" in 2014, although they haven't explained what their payroll might be. Without knowing the Indians' financial plans, it's hard to say how their offseason will go. The early signals, however, aren't that encouraging for Indians fans, as it already appears very unlikely that the team will be able to re-sign Jimenez. It doesn't take much money to patch up a bullpen, but it does take money to sign a slugger or a good starting pitcher.

On the field, the Indians' 2013 season was a success. But they drew fewer than 20K fans even for some weekend home games in September, when they were in the thick of a playoff race. The previous offseason's acquisitions of Swisher and Bourn were reasonably successful from a baseball perspective, but they did not appear to help attract fans who might have been put off by the team's awful performance in 2012. Swisher and Bourn are under contract for the next three seasons, regardless. Even with the new TV deal to which the Indians agreed before the 2013 season, it remains to be seen whether the team will shell out more money now that it's clear the last spending spree wasn't particularly effective at bringing fans through the gates.

Bullpen and Jimenez aside, then, unless the Indians get creative on the trade market, the key players on the 2014 team may end up being fairly similar to last season's. They won 92 games in 2013, so clearly, that's not the worst thing in the world. But it's fair to wonder if Gomes, Raburn and Kluber, in particular, are really as good as they were in 2013, and whether the Indians have the pitching depth they need. Even if not, the Indians could well make up the difference with slightly better performances from Swisher, Bourn, Chisenhall and Cabrera (if he's still around), along with a full season of Salazar. But a much clearer path to success would be to spend a bit of money to address the rotation and the outfield, and right now, it's not clear whether the Indians will be willing to do it.

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