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Dodgers To Sign David Wells

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UPDATE: Dan Graziano’s source says Wells is close to signing with the Dodgers.

Back on Monday, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe broke down the David Wells situation.  At the time of his writing Wells seemed likely to retire.  The sticking point is $1.13MM in incentives Boomer could’ve earned with San Diego – he wants his new team to pay up.  Four clubs inquired, with the Rockies and Dodgers confirmed.  When Ken Rosenthal wrote on the topic that same day, he said the Rockies would pass.  The Mark Redman signing probably puts the nail in that coffin.

Breaking down the candidates:

  • According to the L.A. Times today, the Dodgers still appear interested.  Brett Tomko’s stinker last night didn’t hurt. 
  • The Mets could be one of the mystery teams.
  • The Diamondbacks and Mariners appear to be out. 
  • I’ve speculated in the past that the Braves might consider signing Wells. 
  • The Phillies have a heightened need with Cole Hamels’ injury. 
  • The Cardinals appear set with Joel Pineiro as their fifth starter for now.

Odds and Ends

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Some random rumors and links for Tuesday afternoon…

  • The Rockies signed Mark Redman to a minor league contract.  It makes sense to add some depth, but I like the team’s plan of using high-octane arms Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales instead of the safe veteran options.
  • Rick Sutcliffe’s thoughts on showboating.
  • At one time, it seemed that Jason Jennings would be primed for a big payday this winter.  He still could get a Marquis contract despite his 6.45 ERA in 18 starts.  But prospective buyers have to be concerned that he replied "I don’t know" when asked if he is healthy.  By the way, that link details a failed ballpark marriage proposal that resulted in popcorn being dumped on the guy’s head.  On the Jumbotron.
  • It wouldn’t be the Kansas City Star without an enormous pixellated close-up of the player in question.  This time it’s Mark Grudzielanek, who’s been extended through 2008.  Grudz wouldn’t have reached the 500 PAs needed to guarantee his $4MM option for ’08.
  • The Red Sox still haven’t spoken to Mike Lowell about a contract extension.  He wants to stay, and Nick Cafardo suggests Jermaine Dye could be the comp at two years, $22MM.  That’d be a major concession for Lowell, who’d be the best free agent third baseman unless A-Rod opts out.  One scenario has Kevin Youkilis moving to third base and some sort of league average first baseman stepping in, like the newly acquired Chris Carter.  Another has the Red Sox signing Alex Rodriguez.  The middle ground to those extremes is just to agree on a two-year deal with Lowell.  It’d make sense for the Red Sox to hold off on Lowell until they see what A-Rod does.   
  • The Eric Byrnes contract may serve as a model for Jose Guillen.
  • Tom Koch-Weser of STATS, Inc. has a new WHIFF profile of San Diego’s Chris Young.  A must-read as always.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Damon, Glaus, Wells

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up; here are some rumor-related points of interest.

  • As you know, it doesn’t make sense for the Yankees to keep both Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon around for 2008.  It’s just not an efficent way to spend $29MM.  Rosenthal says Damon would be open to waiving his no-trade clause, if the Yankees struck a deal with a team that fell under his 12-team protection.  Damon is apparently open to regular playing time on teams not located on the West Coast.  The White Sox, Phillies, Braves, or Astros might make sense, in my opinion.  The Yanks’ ability to pull an exercise-and-trade with Abreu’s 2008 option is hindered by his full no-trade protection.
  • Rosenthal believes the Blue Jays might aggressively shop Troy Glaus this winter.  Glaus surprisingly cleared waivers recently.  Glaus is holding all the cards – he has a full no-trade clause and a player option for 2009.
  • The Rockies will pass on David Wells, but the Dodgers are still interested.  The Rox might still go for Steve Trachsel if they opt for experience over potential.
  • Craig Monroe seems to be an option for second-tier clubs, especially if he becomes a free agent.  The Giants will pass. 

Dodgers, Rockies Interested In David Wells

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Who wants seven starts from David Wells?  Apparently the Rockies and Dodgers do, as both teams have already inquired.  Wells is now a free agent.

I say seven starts because Boomer still has a seven-game suspension to serve.  We knew from this morning’s Denver Post that the Rockies were considering Wells, though that article cited only "internal discussions."  Well it’s external now, baby.  The Dodgers were also under heavy speculation with the whole West Coast thing, and now they’re officially in the game.

Rockies Rotation In Shambles

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The Rockies are five games out in the NL West and two out in the Wild Card.  Baseball Prospectus sets their playoff odds at a healthy 22-27%.  Their main strength has been team OBP (second best in the league).  The Rockies’ offense has dominated at Coors Field.  They’ve also had some fine relief work from Manny Corpas, Jeremy Affeldt, and even Jorge Julio. 

But to have a legitimate shot, the Rockies need to sort out their starting rotation.  According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, injuries to Jason Hirsh, Rodrigo Lopez, and Aaron Cook have decimated the starting staff.  The current five consists of Jeff Francis, Josh Fogg, Ubaldo Jimenez, Elmer Dessens, and maybe rookie Franklin Morales.  Recently-acquired Ramon Ortiz will stay in the pen for now.  There doesn’t seem to be talk of using Taylor Buchholz in the rotation again.

While Jimenez was dominant yesterday against the Padres, control figures to remain a problem for him.  Same deal with Morales.  Cook should only miss three starts, and the Rockies desperately need him back.  Lopez is out for the season and Hirsh’s contribution will be minimal.  Fogg and Dessens are mostly just filler.

Since it’s August, the only real trade possibility is to acquire more filler.  Renck specifically mentions Steve Trachsel and David Wells as pitchers on the radar.  We’ve also seen the Rox linked to Josh Towers.  Trachsel and Towers have already cleared waivers, and Wells probably will soon.  As always, good starting pitching is hard to find.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Possible Waiver Deals

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Ken Rosenthal has a new post up; below are some points of interest for rumor-hounds like us. 

  • Josh Towers and Steve Trachsel have both cleared waivers.  You’ll find their contract info as well as a complete list of those who have cleared waivers here.  Rosenthal says the Rockies are monitoring both pitchers; they were forced to start journeyman Tim Harikkala today.  The Rox also called the A’s about Chad Gaudin but found the price prohibitive.  Another reason a Gaudin trade wouldn’t make sense is that he wouldn’t pass through waivers. 
  • Towers is attracting multiple suitors.  I think he’ll have moderate success in the NL as a #4 starter.
  • Mark Loretta and Mike Lamb were both claimed on waivers and then pulled back, so they’re not going anywhere. 
  • The Yankees have no reason to throw down a chunk of change on a free agent starter this winter.  They’re all set for 2008 with a formidable rotation of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, and Andy Pettitte.  I think we’ve learned by now that there’s really no such thing as a surplus of starting pitching, so I imagine the Yanks will only trade Kei Igawa in the right deal.  Buster Olney said this morning that there was a 50% chance of Igawa going to the Padres soon.  Additionally, it will be nice to have Ian Kennedy around as the sixth starter.

Random Rumors And Signings

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We have a bunch of rumor-related tidbits today, and for now I’ll put them into one post.

  • There’s a mini-controversy afoot regarding Cubs lefty Will Ohman.  Ohman has indicated that the Cubs have been letting him pitch while hurt, and the Cubs contend that he never visited the trainer.  No matter who you side with, Ohman’s days in the organization are numbered.
  • The Cubs indeed won the Scott Podsednik claim, but the White Sox want a legitimate prospect in return.  I’ve heard Sean Gallagher mentioned.  There’s not much time for posturing here as the teams probably have until today or tomorrow to make a trade.  The White Sox were considered nontendering Pods last offseason, and he didn’t do anything this year that should’ve changed their mind.  Ozzie Guillen even called him "unreliable" publicly.  Kenny Williams should take what he can get and give the playing time to someone else.
  • Casey Fossum’s been released by the Devil Rays; he’ll hook on somewhere.  The little lefty used to throw in the mid-90s with Boston.  Not so much anymore, but he does boast one of the slowest curveballs you’ll find (slower than 50 mph).  Back in ’03, the Red Sox offered him to Toronto for Kelvim Escobar, unwilling to give up Trot Nixon.  He eventually went to Arizona in the Curt Schilling deal and later was traded to the Devil Rays for Jose Cruz Jr.  Fossum’s battled shoulder woes for most of his career, having labrum surgery in ’06.  He’s still only 29.
  • The Rockies signed Elmer Dessens to a minor-league deal.  They might have to throw the 34 year-old into the rotation for lack of better options. 
  • Carlos Silva wants to stay in Minnesota, and would sign at a discount before hitting the open market if the Twins are interested.  Unfortunately, a discount for a Silva-type these days might be three years, $18MM.  Jason Marquis’s contract was something of a benchmark.  If Silva backs it up to two years, $10MM, I can see the Twins going for it. 
  • Victor Zambrano now finds himself toiling for the Pirates’ Triple A affiliate.

Failed Trades

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Let’s take a look at some deals that almost happened yesterday.

Kyle Farnsworth for Bob Wickman.  This would’ve been fun, reunions with former teams for both players.  However, the Braves wanted the Yankees to pick up all of Farnsworth’s salary, apparently.  Brian Cashman didn’t want to make him go away that badly, and Wickman would probably be a nonfactor back in the AL.

Mariners acquire Mark Loretta.  Eh.  Let’s not overstate the abilities of Loretta.  It sounds like Tim Purpura wanted some kind of legitimate prospect for him.

Rockies send Jeff Baker and others to Tampa Bay for Dan Wheeler.  We can’t really evaluate this one without knowing who else would’ve been involved.  And the Rays don’t really have a place to play Baker; they’re already squeezed finding playing time for Jonny Gomes.  If Rocco Baldelli ever gets healthy they’ll really have a pickle.  I mentioned in a recent interview at D-Rays Bay – Wheeler would probably be one of the ten best relievers available if he was a free agent after the season.  The Rays can pump up his value and get a promising young pitcher next year, as the Royals did with Octavio Dotel.    

Brewers send Tony Gwynn Jr., Zach Jackson, and another minor league for Eric Gagne.  This could’ve been the difference-maker that Scott Linebrink ain’t in a tight NL Central race.  But it doesn’t seem like Doug Melvin got a chance to counter the Red Sox offer, so you can’t really fault him.

Red Sox send Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen to White Sox for Jermaine Dye.  Well, there has to be some statistical way to evaluate whether this pair beats two draft picks.  You’d have to know the attrition rates of first/second rounders, and get some scouts on Pena and Hansen to see if they can ever reach their potential.  If I was the Kenny Williams I probably would’ve made the deal.  I think Pena gets docked in value from where he was two years ago, but still has pretty much the same upside if you manage him right.  Who knows, maybe Williams will go after Pena again this winter.

Twins Pursued Garrett Atkins

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According to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Twins went after Rockies’ third baseman Garrett Atkins with a package that included Juan Rincon.

Given the way Rincon has pitched this year, I would guess he has little trade value.  The Twins would’ve had to offer a good young player like Scott Baker to be taken seriously.

Tigers Trade Rumors: Barmes, Dotel, Qualls

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The Detroit Free Press has a Tigers update for us today.

  • The Tigers are intent on acquiring a backup shortstop.  They recently sent a scout to watch the Rockies’ Clint Barmes at Triple A.  Barmes is at .310/.374/.464 in the minors this year.  Perhaps the Tigers envision him as a possible successor to Carlos Guillen at short.
  • Relievers on the radar: Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, Octavio Dotel, and Kyle Farnsworth.  Eric Gagne does not seem likely right now, and we know Lidge is a long shot.  Farnsworth might make the most sense, as the cost would mainly be money.
  • The article names Craig Monroe plus pitching prospects Dallas Trahern and Jair Jurrjens as players the Tigers would trade.  Despite all that we’ve read, I’d be surprised if the Royals could get something better than Jurrjens for Dotel.
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