Tigers fans are holding their collective breaths as top prospect Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft, exited last night’s Double-A start with an apparent injury (link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). After a third-inning pitch — a fastball that was clocked at 85-86 mph, per Tom Reisenweber of the Erie Times-News (Twitter link) — catcher Kade Scivicque went to the mound and called out the training staff and skipper Mike Rabelo. Mize departed the game at that point. There’s been no formal update on his condition, though Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle tweets that Mize didn’t have his elbow or shoulder wrapped upon leaving the clubhouse and lifted his own bags onto the team’s bus — none of which seem indicative of a major injury. Presumably, the Tigers will have further updates on Mize in the near future.
Tigers Rumors
How Many Trade Chips Do The Tigers Actually Have?
In case you haven’t noticed, the Tigers are rebuilding. General manager Al Avila has spoken often in the past about the need to build toward a better tomorrow, and he was frank during Spring Training about Nicholas Castellanos’ trade candidacy. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi wrote today that the Tigers are willing to listen on veteran players, but that’s already a well-known fact — not exactly a new revelation.
The greater question is: just how many appealing pieces do the Tigers even possess? Morosi lists the usual suspects, citing Castellanos, Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene as potentially movable assets. Beyond that trio, appeal in Detroit veterans will be limited.
Most of the one-year signees the Tigers added over the winter have minimal value because they’re on the injured list and/or performing poorly. Josh Harrison underwent hamstring surgery this month and didn’t hit when healthy. His double-play partner, Jordy Mercer, is on the IL for the second time and has turned in the worst offensive rates of his career in the 19 games he’s managed to play. Tyson Ross is out indefinitely. Matt Moore looked great for two starts… before he had season-ending knee surgery. Jordan Zimmermann’s contract has looked impossible to move since 2016, and now he has a UCL injury (though he’s trying to pitch through it). Miguel Cabrera? No one was touching that contract even before the Tigers announced the “chronic changes” to his knee that will impact the rest of Cabrera’s career. Aside from Greene, the bullpen’s numbers aren’t especially impressive.
Detroit does have a pair of somewhat interesting, relatively young options it could market in addition to Boyd, Greene and Castellanos, although neither is anywhere near free agency.
Super-utilityman Niko Goodrum has played all four infield positions and all three outfield slots since the Tigers picked him up as a minor league free agent in the 2017-18 offseason. In 740 plate appearances as a Tiger, Goodrum has batted .241/.315/.419 with 22 homers and 16 steals. This season, his average exit velocity (89.3 mph) is in the 77th percentile, while his average sprint speed is in the 93rd percentile of MLB players, per Statcast. In some respects, he’s like Detroit’s version of Marwin Gonzalez — albeit with a lesser overall track record. He’s controlled for four years beyond 2019, so there’s no urgency to move him, but teams looking for a versatile upgrade on the bench could look at Goodrum as an intriguing possibility.
In the outfield, Detroit has seen JaCoby Jones explode at the plate recently. On May 4, the 27-year-old Jones’ OPS sat at a lowly .413. In 127 plate appearances since that time, he’s mashed to the tune of a .315/.389/.595 slash with 16 extra-base hits (eight doubles, a triple, seven homers) and a perfect 5-for-5 in the stolen base column. He’s had his share of BABIP luck, but Jones’ K/BB numbers have improved over that stretch as well. Contact seems like it’ll always be an issue, but there’s a fairly interesting blend of power and speed with Jones. Stastcast puts him in elite company (93rd percentile) both in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. He’s in the 81st percentile in terms of sprint speed.
Defensively, Jones was excellent in 2018 (10 DRS, +6.1 UZR, 7 Outs Above Average), but those same metrics have soured on his center field glovework in 2019 (-7, -6.4 and 0, respectively). Like Goodrum, he’s controllable through 2023. I don’t know that teams are going to line up to acquire Jones based on what amounts to five weeks of strong offensive output, but he’s at least worth monitoring over the next several weeks. There aren’t going to be too many appealing center fielders on the trade market, after all.
As for the three most logical chips — Boyd, Greene and Castellanos — they’ll face varying levels of interest. Boyd is appealing to any club within a stone’s throw of contending, as he’s in the midst of what looks to be a legitimate breakout season. The 28-year-old is controlled through 2022 and has thus far pitched to a 3.08 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. Fielding-independent metrics are buying him as a breakout star (2.91 FIP, 3.20 SIERA), and only five qualified pitchers have a better K-BB% than Boyd’s 26.2 percent mark. The cost to acquire him should be enormous, given the time he’s still controlled.
Greene won’t carry as high a price tag, given that he’s controlled through 2020. But he’s sitting on a 1.00 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (27.4 percent), walk percentage (6.6 percent) and ground-ball rate (52.2 percent). He’s unequivocally elevated his stock in 2019, making the Tigers’ decision not to move him at last year’s deadline look wise. Like Boyd, Greene is appealing to any contender.
Castellanos, meanwhile, faces a less robust market. Defensive metrics suggest he’s improved in right field but is still below average there. More concerning is the fact that Castellanos hasn’t hit that much in 2019. His 21 doubles lead the AL, but his overall .263/.315/.454 slash is roughly league average, per OPS+ and wRC+, and he’s on pace for fewer home runs than last year’s 23. Casteallnos has seen his line-drive rate dip by more than seven percent, and his hard-hit rate has fallen off a bit as well. Corner bat rentals never yield all that great a return these days — as the Tigers learned in trading J.D. Martinez two years ago — and Castellanos’ downturn in production won’t help the team’s cause. There’s certainly time for a rebound, but it’s tough to see Castellanos fetching a sizable return even if his bat wakes up in the next few weeks.
The general expectation is that the Tigers will continue their tear-down this summer, but the pieces they have to market, in the end, aren’t that plentiful. Greene seems like a lock to be moved for a decent haul, and because Castellanos isn’t playing like a qualifying offer candidate, it’s probably best to move him even if the return is modest. But the Tigers’ best asset, Boyd, is controlled for three more years and the only other somewhat interesting pieces are controlled even longer. If the team doesn’t move Boyd between now and July 31, the summer market might not boost the Tigers’ farm as much as fans would hope.
Report: Tigers Willing To Listen To Offers For Matthew Boyd, Others
With the July 31 trade deadline on the way and the Tigers well out of contention, they’re “open to moving virtually” all of their veteran players, Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes. Morosi names left-hander Matthew Boyd, closer Shane Greene and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos among potential trade pieces for the rebuilding Tigers.
Not only is Boyd the most appealing member of the above trio, but there is little question he’s Detroit’s MVP. After back-to-back seasons of roughly average production, the 28-year-old has performed like one of the majors’ premier starters in 2019. He owns a 3.08 ERA/2.91 FIP with a stunning 11.16 K/9 against 1.59 BB/9 through 14 starts and 84 2/3 innings. Adding to Boyd’s allure, he’s inexpensive right now ($2.6MM) and controllable for a while. Boyd’s in his first of four potential arbitration years.
While it would be difficult for the Tigers to move their fledgling ace, doing so would go a long way toward boosting a mediocre farm system. In a summer trade market that could also include the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, Boyd’s performance and affordable team control would make him the most desirable arm on the block. As you’d expect, though, Morosi notes it would take a Godfather offer for the Tigers to part with Boyd.
Unlike Boyd, Castellanos wouldn’t return any kind of haul. The 27-year-old is due for free agency after the season, for one, and isn’t cheap ($9.95MM). He’s also a defensively limited corner outfielder – something most executives frown on these days – and hasn’t gotten off to a compelling start at the plate this year. While Castellanos was a well above-average offensive player from 2016-18, he’s batting a so-so .263/.315/.454 (102 wRC+) with seven home runs in 273 trips to the plate this season. Even if Castellanos’ .325 weighted on-base average starts moving toward his .342 expected wOBA, it still wouldn’t do much for his trade value.
As with Castellanos, Greene’s a soon-to-be free agent who seems quite likely to leave Detroit in the coming weeks. As a $4MM hurler with plenty of late-game experience, the Tigers are sure to find a taker for the 30-year-old Greene. There’s added value with one more season of arbitration control, though Greene’s performance thus far may also cause his arb price tag to shoot up. In theory, Greene has upped his trade value as well with a tremendous 1.00 ERA, 9.67 K/9, 2.33 BB/9 and 19 saves on 20 tries in 27 innings. However, potential buyers are likely wary regression is around the corner.
Hitters have only posted a .182 batting average on balls in play against Greene, down 124 points from his career mark of .306; his 79.8 percent strand rate sits 11 percent above his lifetime figure; and there’s a sizable gap between his wOBA against (.212) and xwOBA (.280). Greene also comes with an inconsistent track record, having mustered an unspectacular 4.30 ERA/3.88 FIP in 178 innings out of the Tigers’ bullpen from 2016-18.
After Boyd, Castellanos and Greene, it’s not as easy to identify potentially on-the-block veteran Tigers. The team signed a pair of infielders, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, as well as two starters in Tyson Ross and Matt Moore to one-year deals last offseason. At the time, the Tigers were no doubt hoping those four would build their value leading up to the deadline. Instead, they’ve been either bad or injured (or both in some cases). Righty Michael Fulmer underwent Tommy John surgery before the season, further destroying his once-high trade value, while designated hitter Miguel Cabrera and injured righty Jordan Zimmermann remain immovable because of their declining performances and albatross contracts.
Tigers Notes: Zimmermann, Ross, Goodrum
Detroit’s rotation has been without its elder statesmen, injured right-handers Jordan Zimmermann and Tyson Ross, for a large portion of the season. It’s going to stay that way for at least a little while longer, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press explains.
Zimmermann, down since April 26 with a sprained right UCL, pitched a rain-shortened rehab game at the Single-A level Saturday and “just didn’t feel comfortable with his stuff,” manager Ron Gardenhire told Fenech, adding: “He wants to get back into a normal routine before he comes up here and pitches, which is absolutely 100% right. You can’t come up here with below average stuff.”
The 33-year-old Zimmermann will make another rehab stint this week with a to-be-determined affiliate, per Fenech. At this point, it’s unclear how much more time Zimmermann will miss. Barring setbacks, though, a pitcher’s rehab stint is allowed to go on for up to 30 days. Zimmermann’s began June 8.
Ross, 32, hasn’t started a rehab assignment since landing on the injured list May 12 with a nerve issue in his right elbow. He’s now dealing with a stiff neck and won’t return to throwing for “probably five days,” Fenech writes.
Thanks to an unattractive combination of injury and performance woes, Zimmermann and Ross are all but guaranteed to go down as failed free-agent signings for Detroit. Zimmermann parlayed high-end production as a member of the Nationals from 2009-15 into a five-year, $110MM contract with the Tigers heading into 2016, but the union hasn’t worked out at all for the club. Zimmermann owns a 5.29 ERA/4.82 FIP in 427 innings as a Tiger, and the former workhorse hasn’t exceeded 160 frames in a season since signing his deal. The Ross investment’s going to hurt Detroit a lot less, as it only gave him a one-year, $5.75MM guarantee last winter. Still, his woeful numbers – a 6.11 ERA/5.92 FIP with 6.37 K/9 and 4.58 BB/9 in 35 1/3 innings – aren’t what the Tigers had in mind when they signed Ross.
Injuries to starters, not just to Zimmermann and Ross, have been an unfortunate theme for struggling Detroit in 2019. In addition to the absences of Zimmermann and Ross, the Tigers have been without righty Michael Fulmer and lefty Matt Moore for all or most of the season. Fulmer underwent Tommy John surgery before the campaign began, while Moore turned in one and a half excellent starts before undergoing season-ending right knee surgery in mid-April.
With Zimmermann, Ross, Fulmer and Moore unavailable, the Tigers’ rotation has seen a potential ace emerge in Matthew Boyd, though the 28-year-old could be an in-season trade candidate. Meanwhile, fellow 20-somethings Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Norris have also offered encouraging signs. They’re the only members of the Tigers’ rotation who have racked up at least 10 starts this season. Ryan Carpenter and Gregory Soto, who have combined for 10 starts, have joined Zimmermann and Ross in recording horrific production.
In further unwelcome news for the Tigers, one of their top position players, Niko Goodrum, departed Tuesday’s loss to the Royals with “significant” right knee swelling, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets. It’s unclear whether Goodrum will require an IL stint, though. The switch hitter’s batting .233/.315/.393 (90 wRC+) with six homers and seven steals on nine tries through 248 plate appearances. More impressively, the versatile Goodrum has seen action at every position but pitcher and catcher this year.
Nicholas Castellanos Working To Improve Defense
- With the Tigers out of contention and their top hitter, Nicholas Castellanos, not signed past this season, he has largely checked out from a leadership role, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press observes. However, that doesn’t mean Castellanos isn’t working hard. As Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic explains (subscription required), Castellanos has made a real effort to ameliorate his much-maligned defense. A former high school shortstop, Castellanos struggled at the outset of his big league career at third and has continued to have difficulty since moving to the corner outfield in 2017. Castellanos’ defense still isn’t a plus, as Stavenhagen notes, but the metrics have liked the 27-year-old’s work better during his platform season. So has manager Ron Gardenhire, who told Stavenhagen, “He’s on a mission to become a good outfielder, and I think he’s made a ton of improvement.”
Tigers Sign Nick Quintana
- Tigers second-rounder Nick Quintana announced on Twitter that he’s signed a contract with his new team. His No. 47 overall slot came with a $1.58MM value, though bonus terms . Quintana played third base at Arizona and checked in 43rd on Fangraphs’ rankings heading into the draft. He placed 77th at MLB.com, 81st at BA and 85th at ESPN. He’s regarded as a plus defender at third with above-average raw power, but there are some strikeout concerns and he’s a below-average runner as well.
Tigers Select Carlos Torres’ Contract
TODAY: Torres has officially been added to Detroit’s roster, as per a team announcement. Reininger was optioned to Triple-A, while Josh Harrison was moved to the 60-day IL to create a 40-man roster spot. Harrison hasn’t played since May 27, and is facing a six-to-eight week absence due to hamstring surgery.
SATURDAY: The Tigers are set to select right-hander Carlos Torres’ contract from Triple-A Toledo, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets. The team will option fellow righty Zac Reininger to create a 25-man spot for Torres, but it’ll also need to make a corresponding 40-man move.
Sunday will mark the two-week anniversary since Torres joined the Tigers on a minor league deal. Since then, the 36-year-old has pitched 5 2/3 shutout innings at the Triple-A level with five hits allowed and three strikeouts against no walks. Torres previously notched respectable numbers as a member of the Padres’ Triple-A club, with which he logged a 2.49 ERA/4.18 FIP with 8.17 K/9, 3.55 BB/9 and a 50.7 percent groundball rate over 25 1/3 frames. Torres exited the organization when he opted out of his minors pact May 15.
A 15th-round pick of the White Sox in 2004, Torres has seen MLB action in every season but 2011 since he debuted in 2009. Torres owns a 4.04 ERA/4.21 FIP with 7.89 K/9, 3.43 BB/9 and a 44.4 percent grounder mark in a combined 500 2/3 innings with the ChiSox, Rockies, Mets, Brewers and Nationals.
Poll: Shopping Matthew Boyd
The Tigers may have helped develop a front-line starter in left-hander Matthew Boyd, whom they acquired from the Blue Jays in a deal for David Price in July 2015. At the time, fellow southpaw prospect Daniel Norris was seen as the best part of the Tigers’ three-player return, but it’s Boyd who has since emerged as the superior major leaguer. Now, with the noncompetitive Tigers amid a rebuild and not likely to return to contention in the near future, they may have to consider trading Boyd this summer.
Boyd debuted with the Blue Jays the same season as the trade and wound up turning in 57 1/3 innings of 7.53 ERA/6.59 FIP ball between Toronto and Detroit. He was much better over the next three seasons, including when he totaled 4.3 fWAR in 305 1/3 frames from 2017-18, yet still didn’t look like much more than an average starter. But Boyd has found another gear in 2019 – his age-28 season.
Across 83 2/3 innings this year, Boyd has already put up a career-best fWAR (2.8) that trails only Max Scherzer among starters. Thanks in part to a lethal fastball-slider combo, Boyd’s also third in the league in K/BB ratio (6.93), sixth in K/9 (11.16) and BB/9 (1.61), eighth in FIP (2.93), 15th in ERA (3.12) and swinging-strike percentage (13.4), and 25th in contact rate (73.2). Furthermore, there’s almost zero difference between Boyd’s weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.272 versus .271).
Based on his production to date, the 2019 version of Boyd has been an ace – and a cheap one at that. Relative to his performance, Boyd is earning a pittance ($2.6MM) in his first of four potential arbitration-eligible years. Considering Boyd is breaking through as a top-flight starter who’s under control through 2022, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the Tigers go forward with him. That said, there’s a case for Detroit to cash in its best trade chip this summer, when Boyd would outrank Marcus Stroman, Madison Bumgarner and others as the most desirable starter on the block.
Even with Boyd in the fold, it doesn’t look as if the Tigers have nearly enough quality building blocks in the majors or minors to work their way back into contention over the next couple years. There’s hope in the Tigers’ starting staff in the form of Boyd, Norris and Spencer Turnbull. But the team’s premier reliever, Shane Greene, isn’t signed past this season and may find himself on another roster in the coming weeks. Switching to the offensive side, Brandon Dixon and Nicholas Castellanos have been the Tigers’ only league-average batters this season. The 27-year-old Dixon has struck out 37 times and drawn three walks in 98 plate appearances, indicating his bubble’s going to burst. We know Castellanos can hit, but he’s a free agent-to-be whose overall value is limited by his defensive shortcomings. Down on the farm, the Tigers do have prized righty Casey Mize – the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft – but Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs still don’t see a special system in place.
While the Tigers don’t boast an elite collection of farmhands, trading Boyd would change that to a certain extent. He’d command a massive return right now, though it would be an agonizing call on the Tigers’ part to let him go. However, with Boyd’s value perhaps at its zenith and Detroit seemingly not nearing a return to relevance, general manager Al Avila may have to think about putting his club’s ace on the block. What would you do in Avila’s position?
(Poll link for app users)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Tigers’ GM Avila On Cabrera, Prospect Timelines
The Tigers and Miguel Cabrera received some tough news recently when four different medical opinions agreed that the future Hall of Famer is dealing with “chronic changes” in his knee that will impact the remainder of his career. The immediate ramifications of that diagnosis brought about a position change for Cabrera, who is now relegated to DH duty on a full-time basis and won’t be seeing any action at first base for the foreseeable future. As detailed at the time, Cabrera is owed more than $150MM through the end of the 2023 campaign on a contract that looks to be more onerous than ever before.
General manager Al Avila met with reporters Thursday to discuss the situation (all links to Twitter via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). “The bad news is that it’s going to get worse as it goes along,” said Avila of Cabrera’s knee condition. “It’s incumbent on him to stay in good shape and it’s incumbent on us to make sure we get him the proper treatment and proper rest.” If both sides are able to hold up their end of the bargain, Avila added, the organization is confident it can “keep [Cabrera] productive on the field through the remainder of his contract.”
That’d be a tall order even for a fully healthy Cabrera (or any player signed into his age-40 season). This version of Cabrera, though, is not only dealing with the recently revealed knee issue but also multiple herniated disks in his back and the perhaps lingering effects of last season’s surgery to repair a torn biceps tendon. The 36-year-old surely enjoyed proving some doubters wrong for a night when he ripped a grand slam just hours after the extent of his knee troubles became public knowledge Tuesday. His overall line of .287/.357/.376, however, illustrates the manner in which his power has yet to materialize in 2019.
Given that substantial commitment to Cabrera for another four years beyond the current campaign, it’ll be all the more imperative for the Tigers organization to produce cost-efficient young talent. To that end, Avila discussed a number of intriguing young prospects Thursday, touching on the timelines of infield prospect Willi Castro and several of the club’s top-ranked pitching prospects.
Castro, a shortstop, is hitting .335/.413/.505 through 232 plate appearances in Triple-A while the Tigers’ entire infield flounders at the plate in the Majors. However, Castro has also committed 10 errors in just 44 starts at short (398 1/3 innings) after making only 15 errors in all of 2018. Scouting reports agree that he’ll eventually be a solid defender at the position, but it seems that consistency has eluded him. For a player who just turned 22, that’s not necessarily a shock. It’s worth wondering whether he’ll get a look later this month, as we’re right around the period of time at which teams can begin promoting players without worrying about Super Two status.
As for the pitchers, Avila suggested that although right-handers Beau Burrows and Kyle Funkhouser have struggled, if they can return to “doing what they’re capable of doing,” they’ll likely get a look in the Majors later in the 2019 season. Tigers fans, though, are surely more interested in getting a look at last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, Casey Mize. The former Auburn standout is among the game’s top 10 pitching prospects and has decimated minor league lineups in 2019, pitching to a comical 0.83 ERA with a 65-to-10 K/BB in 70 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A.
However, Avila wasn’t shy about the fact that promoting Mize in the near future isn’t all that likely. While the GM didn’t expressly rule out a promotion at some point in 2019, he plainly stated that there’s “no purpose” in promoting Mize to the Majors right now, citing a wariness of undoing some of the progress he’s made thus far. Perhaps if the Tigers were postseason contenders with a pressing rotation need, there’d be more urgency, but Avila was candid in his assessment of his big league roster as well. “Quite frankly it’s not going to make us into playoff contenders this year,” he said of a near-term promotion for Mize.
Tigers Sign First-Rounder Riley Greene
The MLB draft isn’t even over yet, but the Tigers announced on this morning’s draft conference call that they’ve officially signed first-rounder Riley Greene. Greene was selected with the No. 5 overall pick, which comes with a $6,180,700 slot value, although bonus terms are not yet known. He’s represented by Tripper Johnson of Sosnick Cobbe Karon.
Greene, 18, will forgo a commitment to the University of Florida in order to begin his professional career with the Tigers. An outfielder out of Hagerty High School in Oviedo, Fla., he was a consensus top-tier talent in the 2019 draft, with Baseball America ranking him fifth overall while ESPN, MLB.com and Fangraphs all ranked him as the draft’s No. 6 prospect. Scouting reports on Greene laud his hit tool, with BA’s report labeling him the “best pure hitter in the prep class.” He’s a hit-over-power prospect at present, although BA and Fangraphs suggest that his raw power could eventually turn into above-average game power as well. The consensus on him from a defensive standpoint seems to be that he’ll land in an outfield corner.
Greene is obviously several years away from being a factor at the big league level, as is the case with most high school draftees, but he’ll nonetheless add a high-upside bat to the top of a Tigers farm system that is currently headlined primarily by pitchers. Right-handers Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Franklin Perez, Beau Burrows and Alex Faedo are among the most highly regarded prospects in a rapidly improving Detroit system.
