Wilmer’s Tears: The Butterfly Effects Of A Collapsed Trade
Wilmer Flores cried. It was the eighth inning, and the Mets were trailing the Padres by five runs. The non-waiver trade deadline was 36 hours away, and the only organization he’d ever known had agreed to trade him and teammate Zack Wheeler to the Brewers in exchange for two-time All-Star Carlos Gomez. The 23-year-old Flores learned of the reported agreement between innings … but he was left in the game to hit in the seventh inning … and to return to the field to play second base in the top half of the eighth.
In a whirlwind span of 15 to 30 minutes, Flores went from being traded to staying put among friends and teammates; the Mets had backed out of the reportedly agreed-upon trade once talks progressed to medical reviews. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported that an issue with Gomez’s hip and perhaps some hesitance over Wheeler, who was on the mend from Tommy John surgery at the time, had torpedoed the deal.
Two nights later, with the deadline behind him, Flores pumped his fist as he rounded first base and thumped the Mets logo across his chest as he approached home plate after hitting one of the most emotional walk-off home runs in recent memory. It was the last standing ovation in a day that saw Mets fans rise to their feet to embrace Flores on multiple other occasions. Flores went on to have a fine Mets career, calling Citi Field home up through the 2018 season. He’ll always hold a special place in the hearts of most Mets fans.
The memory of that unusual and emotional scene, however, is only the surface of a much more layered “what if” scenario. If the Mets had gone through with that trade, the ripple effects would’ve radically altered the future of several teams and — in a more roundabout way — perhaps the very fabric of the game.
How so? Let’s examine:
The Mets
Imagine a world where the Mets weren’t issuing statements to the press about their highest-paid position player being injured in a freak wild boar accident. If the Mets had gone through with the Brewers trade, it’s quite possible that Yoenis Cespedes never would’ve played a game for them. The deal bringing Cespedes to Queens was a buzzer-beater just seconds before the deadline — not 48 hours after Flores’ outpouring forever endeared him to the Mets’ fanbase.
Cespedes was an absolute juggernaut for the Amazins down the stretch, fueling their torrid finish to the season with an outstanding .287/.337/.604 with 17 home runs in just 57 regular-season games. Mets fans clamored for the then-Sandy-Alderson-led front office to re-sign the slugger. While he initially looked to be outside their price range, Cespedes didn’t see his market develop the way he’d hoped and ultimately opted for a compromise deal that promised him $75MM over three years but came with opt-outs after years one and two. Following a terrific 2016 season, Cespedes indeed opted out, and the two sides brokered a more concrete four-year, $110MM pact covering the 2017-20 seasons.
But what if the club had acquired Gomez on July 30? Curtis Granderson was productive in right field. Juan Lagares was a world-beating defensive center fielder even if his bat was characteristically flimsy. Michael Cuddyer was still on the roster, and a top prospect named Michael Conforto had made his MLB debut just days earlier, on July 24. With Gomez added to that bunch, would the Mets have gone through with Cespedes trade? You can argue there was still room — put Gomez in center, Cespedes in left and use Lagares off the bench — but the urgency obviously would’ve been lessened and the Mets surely would’ve been more protective of their prospect assets. And without that magical stretch run erased from history and Gomez signed through 2016, the Mets’ motivation to sign Cespedes would’ve likely been wiped out.
Furthermore, with Cespedes then sure to have been traded elsewhere, might the pitcher they traded to Detroit have instead won a Rookie of the Year Award in New York? It’s impossible to say, but dropping Michael Fulmer into the mix of quality Mets arms in place of Wheeler would’ve maintained their enviable stash of arms for a longer time. Fulmer, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey (prior to his regression), Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz is clearly a talented enough group on which to build a contending staff. And the “what ifs” only continue if you stop to wonder what precise course Fulmer’s career would’ve taken a different setting.
The Tigers
Speaking of Fulmer, well, Tigers fans wouldn’t be left to wonder whether the club should’ve traded him prior to all of his injury troubles. Fulmer had a masterful rookie season but has since undergone an ulnar nerve transposition procedure, Tommy John surgery and knee surgery. They could’ve pulled the trigger on a trade for him early in his big league tenure, but doing so would’ve meant trading four-plus years of control over the right-hander. Tigers fans can voice frustration with the benefit of hindsight, but trades of quality, established starters with that much club control remaining are of the utmost rarity.
It’s likely that Cespedes would’ve been moved elsewhere. The Astros, Orioles, Giants and Pirates were among the teams on the hunt for outfield upgrades that trade deadline, and then-Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski was committed to a rare sell-off, evidenced not only by the Cespedes swap but the David Price blockbuster with the Blue Jays. If you want to get truly hypothetical, though, let’s say no Cespedes trade materializes. …Would late owner Mike Ilitch still have moved on from Dombrowski shortly after the trade deadline? Would Dombrowski ever have ended up in Boston?
The Brewers
Sayonara, Josh Hader. In this hypothetical world, you were never a Brewer, because Gomez was traded for Wheeler and Flores. Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress surely could’ve formed a potent back-of-the-pen duo while their peaks overlapped, but the three-headed monster that propelled the team to the 2018 NLCS would never have come to be. Hader would’ve been dominating in Houston or elsewhere, depending on whether the Astros traded him. Could a Wheeler-fronted rotation have made up for his absence?
The ripple effect doesn’t stop there. Also coming to Milwaukee in the Astros swap that did happen were Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana and Adrian Houser. Phillips was flipped for Mike Moustakas in 2018, so without his presence in Milwaukee, who knows whether Moose would’ve been acquired via trade or subsequently re-signed in the winter? Santana’s 30-dinger season in 2017 doesn’t happen, nor do the Brewers eventually trade him for Ben Gamel. Houser, meanwhile, doesn’t show promise of a late-blooming breakout with the ’19 Brewers, for whom he turned in 111 1/3 innings of 3.72 ERA/3.88 FIP ball with 9.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 53.4% grounder rate. The Brewers’ 2020 rotation is short another arm in that instance, as Wheeler still would’ve been a free agent, barring an extension.
Of course, the Brew Crew would’ve enjoyed Wheeler’s renaissance since he reemerged from arm troubles. And that brings us to…
The Astros
The craziest part of this entire butterfly effect isn’t that Josh Hader might’ve been closing out games for Houston. In fact, it doesn’t involve Hader or Gomez at all. It’s that the other player traded to the Astros alongside Gomez in exchange for Hader, Phillips, Santana and Houser was none other than right-hander Mike Fiers. Fiers joined the Houston rotation, promptly threw a no-hitter in his fourth outing, made 67 starts for the ‘Stros over the next two and a half seasons … and ultimately proved to be the whistleblower who outed a sign-stealing scandal that led to the firing of manager A.J. Hinch and president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow.
Perhaps the Astros were enamored of Fiers enough that they’d have found a way to acquire him from Milwaukee in a different swap. But it’s eminently plausible that had the Wheeler/Flores/Gomez trade between Milwaukee and New York gone through, we’d still have no firm knowledge of the Astros’ nefarious scheme. True, we might’ve had some inkling of wrongdoing; Jeff Passan, after all, reported for Yahoo back in 2017 that two players told him they believed Houston had banged on a trash can to convey signs. Athletics GM David Forst has acknowledged asking the league to investigate the Astros for improper use of technology. But without the smoking gun that was Fiers’ testimony, the league was either unable or unmotivated to bring the scandal to public light.
Peeling the onion back further — imagine if Hader had become every bit as dominant in Houston as he did in Milwaukee. Would the Astros have ever acquired Roberto Osuna to shut down games? Would since-fired assistant GM Brandon Taubman’s belligerent locker room taunting ever have led to his dismissal? Would the Astros have libeled Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein, calling her report of Taubman’s actions “misleading and completely irresponsible” before accusing her of attempting to “fabricate a story where one does not exist”?
To be clear: the Astros’ scandals reflect the indefensible choices of many individuals associated with the organization, for which they’re fully responsible collectively and individually. But the counter-factual scenarios do at least suggest that these matters might have occurred and/or been brought to light in quite different ways.
The Red Sox
Depending on the previous Dombrowski question I raised, who knows what state the front office would be in? We do know, definitively, that without the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal coming to light last fall, Alex Cora would not have been fired as the team’s manager. Ron Roenicke would still be his bench coach.
All that brings us back to…
The Mets
Carlos Beltran‘s debut as the Mets’ manager would’ve been delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but it wouldn’t have been outright wiped out of existence by virtue of his own involvement in the Astros scandal. Luis Rojas would be a quality control coach and not a big league manager.
Whether the Mets would’ve been better off in the long run with Gomez and Fulmer in the organization as opposed to Wheeler, Flores and Cespedes is debatable. Cespedes was again their best hitter in 2016 when the club secured a Wild Card postseason berth, but they were unable to advance beyond that initial round, falling to the Giants. The subsequent four-year deal has been a disaster. Cespedes has been extremely productive when on the field, but he of course hasn’t been on the field much. He’s played 119 games through the first three seasons of that deal and agreed to have his contract restructured this winter after the surreal wild boar injury.
Wheeler didn’t pitch again until 2017 and wasn’t very good that year. But his 2018-19 seasons were strong, as he posted a combined 3.65 ERA in 377 1/3 innings with a strikeout per frame and a total of roughly eight wins above replacement. The Mets didn’t make the postseason either year, though, and they’re left with a draft pick to show for their decision to hang onto him.
Flores hit .272/.317/.409 after the trade-that-wasn’t, taking another 1275 plate appearances as a Met before signing with the D-backs in free agency in the 2018-19 offseason and then inking a two-year deal with the Giant this past winter.
Adding Gomez in 2015 probably wouldn’t have cost the Mets the division — they won the NL East by seven games — but it’d have made things much closer. He’d already seen his 2013-14 All-Star form begin to fade, and his production worsened following his eventual trade to Houston. In 2016, Gomez played so poorly with the Astros that they simply released him in mid-August. A late surge with the Rangers served to remind that Gomez was still talented, so perhaps had he never gone to Houston in the first place, he could’ve remained a solid bat — but he was never going to hit at Cespedes’ level.
Fulmer, meanwhile, would still be controlled by the Mets through at least 2022 — if not 2023 (depending on when they promoted him). Virtually every prominent Mets starter has had Tommy John surgery in recent years (all of deGrom, Harvey, Wheeler, Matz and now Syndergaard), and it’s likely that Fulmer would’ve still eventually required his own surgery. But the other injuries that have dogged him and the timing of the procedure can’t be known. Marcus Stroman, acquired last July as an advance means of “replacing” Wheeler once it was clear an extension wasn’t happening, might not be a Met. Anthony Kay, traded in that deal, could be projected in the 2020 rotation.
The exact manner in which rosters would’ve been impacted can be speculated upon ad nauseam, but will never be known to any real degree of confidence. It doesn’t seem like the Mets cost themselves any playoff opportunities, but the effects of that near-trade were extremely broad reaching — and it seems certain that without Fiers being traded to Houston, we’d still be lauding the 2017 Astros as the most dominant team in recent history (at least until the shocking news emerged in some other manner).
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Flashback: The Spring 2014 Contract Spat Between Max Scherzer & The Tigers
In the 2013-14 offseason, the Tigers were still riding high. Despite some postseason disappointments, the organization had run off three-straight AL Central titles and seemed poised for more. It also had a slate of big-time veterans coming ever closer to free agency.
The top priority, it seemed, was emergent ace Max Scherzer. He had seemingly supplanted Justin Verlander as the top dog on one of the best rotations in recent memory. But free agency beckoned at the end of 2014, Scherzer’s age-29 season.
You may recall that the Tigers ended up making a major long-term deal … but not with Scherzer. (No doubt we’ll write more on that one at some point soon.) Instead, club and player ended up engaging in a somewhat terse exchange of statements to the press at the end of camp, setting the stage for Scherzer’s ultimate departure.
After showing so much tantalizing ability over the years, the former first-round draft pick finally put it all together in 2013. Scherzer spun 214 1/3 innings of 2.90 ERA ball, racking up 10.1 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 and leading the league with a 0.970 WHIP. Scherzer not only nabbed his first All-Star appearance, but secured his first Cy Young Award.
The Tigers spent big and went for it under long-time owner Mike Ilitch, with veteran exec Dave Dombrowski swinging deals from the GM seat. Pursuit of an extension with Scherzer was inevitable.
Trouble was, Scherzer had taken his time turning into a complete pitcher. By the time the team was ready to place its bet on his future, he had ample leverage. And he had the game’s foremost lever puller running his negotiations: super-agent Scott Boras, long known for bringing his top clients to the open market.
Early-offseason moves freed some payroll availability; Dombrowski told MLBTR’s Zach Links the flexibility would make a Scherzer extension “more possible.” The sides were able to line up on a record-setting arbitration raise, which seemed generally promising. Scherzer indicated that he’d like to reach agreement on a deal to stay in Detroit for the long run.
And then came … a truly bizarre, late-spring exchange. We’ve occasionally seen teams issue statements when negotiations with a superstar fail to culminate in an agreement. But rarely are they so transparently salty as the one the Tigers unfurled …
“The Detroit Tigers have made a substantial, long-term contract extension offer to Max Scherzer that would have placed him among the highest paid pitchers in baseball, and the offer was rejected. As we have reiterated, it has been the organization’s intent to extend Max’s contract and keep him in a Tigers uniform well beyond the 2014 season. While this offer would have accomplished that, the ballclub’s focus remains on the start of the upcoming season, and competing for a World Championship. Moving forward there will be no further in-season negotiation and the organization will refrain from commenting on this matter.”
Well, then! Boras, naturally, responded. He wasn’t quite so spiteful, but certainly landed his own well-placed shot that left no doubt as to his views on the equal standing of the bargaining parties:
“Max Scherzer made a substantial long-term contract extension offer to the Detroit Tigers that would have placed him among the highest-paid pitchers in baseball, and the offer was rejected by Detroit. Max is very happy with the city of Detroit, the fans and his teammates, and we will continue negotiating with the Tigers at season’s end.”
So it seemed both sides had made their offers; neither proved amenable to further compromise. It emerged that the Tigers’ best offer was a match of the extant comparable of record: the six-year, $144MM Cole Hamels extension with the Phillies. The warring statements drew mixed reactions from the pundit class, but the consensus was that this number was never particularly likely to budge Boras and Scherzer.
Rather than bowing to worry over the season separating him from free agency, Scherzer took out an insurance policy. He was nearly as good in 2014 as he was in the season prior, landing a fifth-place Cy Young finish, obviating the need for that policy, and setting the stage for a proper bidding war. While there was indication at times that the Tigers remained involved, the team showed tepid interest and was not a finalist when push came to shove.
Scherzer, of course, signed a huge contract with the Nationals. Though the face value of $210MM didn’t account for deferrals, it handily topped the prior Tigers offer. Perhaps it was just as well for the Detroit organization. While the club was successful again in Scherzer’s final year, it crumbled in 2015, with Dombrowski stunningly departing after the trade deadline. Then again, Scherzer’s ongoing dominance made even that monster contract a relative bargain. Had the Tigers gone higher in their extension offer and managed to secure his services for the long haul, Scherzer would’ve been a nice trade chip to cash in and jump-start the rebuild.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Al Kaline Passes Away
Tigers legend Al Kaline passed away Monday at his home at the age of 85, a family friend confirmed to John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press. An 18-time All-Star, a 10-time Gold Glover in the outfield, the 1955 AL batting champ and a key contributor on Detroit’s 1968 World Series-winning roster, Kaline is among the very best to ever play the game and joins Ty Cobb among the top players to ever suit up for the Tigers organization.
The Baltimore native posted a career .297/.376/.480 batting line with 3007 hits, 399 home runs, 498 doubles, 75 triples, 137 steals, 1622 runs scored and 1582 RBIs, establishing himself as the face of a generation of Tigers baseball from his debut in 1953 to the time he retired in 1974. He is the Tigers’ all-time leader in games played, home runs and walks, and he trails only franchise greats and fellow Cooperstown inductees like Cobb, Hank Greenberg and Charlie Gehringer in virtually all key offensive categories. His No. 6 was retired by the club in 1980, making him the first recipient of that honor.
Kaline’s importance to the organization reaches immeasurably beyond his on-field accolades, however. Even after he retired as a player, the next generation of Tigers fans who didn’t have the good fortune to watch him play instead grew up listening to his insights, anecdotes and experience as one of the voices of Tigers baseball. He also served as a special assistant in the club’s front office and regularly appeared in Spring Training to work with upcoming waves of young Tiger talent.
Kaline will be remembered both as a one of the all-time greats and a revered gentleman off the field. He was named the 1970 Fred Hutchison Award winner, recognizing “character and competitive spirit” and also named the winner of the 1973 Roberto Clemente Award. Media members, former teammates and Tigers players alike have flocked to social media to express their sorrow over the loss of one of the game’s iconic figures.
Said Justin Verlander: “Such a kind and generous man who meant so much to so many. I hope you knew how much I enjoyed our conversations about baseball, life, or just giving each other a hard time. I am honored to have been able to call you my friend for all these years. R.I.P. Mr Tiger, Al Kaline.” James McCann, John Hicks, Niko Goodrum, Grayson Greiner and Jake Rogers are among the many recent Tigers players who have echoed similar sentiments on Twitter.
We at MLB Trade Rumors join those around baseball in expressing heartfelt condolences to the friends, family, loved ones and legions of fans whose lives have been touched by Kaline.
Prospect Faceoff: Pearson v. Mize
There might not be two finer right-handed pitching prospects in baseball than the Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson and the Tigers’ Casey Mize. At least a few notable prospect outlets essentially have the pair neck and neck. Baseball America ranks Pearson as the game’s seventh-best farmhand and has Mize at No. 13. FanGraphs puts Pearson at No. 8, Mize 16th. And MLB.com slightly favors Mize, rating him seventh and Pearson eighth.
Between the two, Pearson seems to be closer to making his major league debut. The 23-year-old, whom the Blue Jays chose 28th in the 2017 draft, dazzled in spring training before the game shut down as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Pearson fired seven innings of one-run, two-hit ball with 11 strikeouts and three walks, flashing triple-digit heat along the way. Carving up the competition isn’t anything new for the 6-foot-6, 245-pound Pearson, who just last season combined for a 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 and averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 101 2/3 innings divided among the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. It was the first extensive pro year for Pearson, who tossed a meager 1 2/3 frames in 2018 as he dealt with a back injury and a fractured ulna.
Whether Pearson will be handle a starter’s workload over the long haul is one of the few questions surrounding him. He only averaged a little over four innings per appearance in 2019, and Baseball America writes, “The fact that Pearson throws with so much velocity on every fastball also gives some scouts concerns about whether that’s a durability risk.” If Pearson can hold up, though, he clearly has the potential to evolve into a front-line starter at the MLB level.
Mize, 22, has ace upside in his own right. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft and has lived up to the billing in the minors thus far. Mize doesn’t throw as hard as Pearson (his typical fastball clocked in at 93 mph in ’19), but he was just about untouchable last year in High-A (0.88 ERA over 30 2/3 innings) before earning a promotion to Double-A. Mize continued to wow at the second-highest level of the minors, where he recorded a 3.20 ERA and 8.69 K/9 against 2.06 BB/9 in 15 starts and 78 2/3 frames; however, Mize did miss a few weeks with shoulder inflammation, and the Tigers put an early end to his season to preserve him for future years. He returned during the spring with four innings of three-hit, two-run pitching, notching six strikeouts and a pair of walks.
If health doesn’t fail either of these hurlers in the coming seasons, baseball fans could be treated to another couple of electrifying arms. Which of the two would you take as a building block? (Poll link for app users)
Pick a prospect
-
Nate Pearson 53% (2,162)
-
Casey Mize 47% (1,903)
Total votes: 4,065
Tigers Release, Re-Sign Jordy Mercer, Zack Godley
In advance of the MLB-wide roster freeze, the Tigers released and re-signed veterans Jordy Mercer and Zack Godley, per Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. It was a procedural move, per Chris McCoskey of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter), no doubt relating to their opt-out clauses. Both players remain with the organization on minor-league pacts.
*The original version of this post misinterpreted the underlying story and failed to recognize that both players had been re-signed. We regret the error.
Mercer, the long-time Pirates shortstop, spent the 2019 season with the Detroit organization and returned as a non-roster invitee in the past offseason. He missed a lot of time due to injury but turned in a sturdy .270/.310/.438 batting line when healthy. Mercer has hit well thus far in camp and would appear to be a solidifying presence in a largely uncertain infield mix.
As for Godley, 29, he handed out eight walks in 4 1/3 innings of spring action. But he’ll still have a shot at earning a bounceback opportunity in Detroit. Godley emerged as a quality rotation piece in 2017 with the Diamondbacks but took a step back in the ensuing season and struggled mightily last year. His deal includes a $1.5MM salary and $1.5MM in possible incentives, if he can earn his way to the majors.
GM Trade History: Tigers’ Al Avila
It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings. In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership. The same can hold true of major extensions. It’s just tough to know from the outside.
There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well. But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.
In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. After covering the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, the Angels’ Billy Eppler, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, and the White Sox’ Rick Hahn, let’s check out the work of Tigers GM Al Avila. Since he took over for Dave Dombrowski in surprising fashion in August of 2015, here’s what Avila has done on the trade market (in chronological order and excluding minor deals; full details at transaction link.)
2015-16 Offseason
- Acquired INF Javier Betancourt from Brewers for RHP Francisco Rodriguez
- Acquired OF Cameron Maybin from Braves for LHP Ian Krol and LHP Gabe Speier
- Acquired LHP Justin Wilson from Yankees for RHP Luis Cessa and RHP Chad Green
2016 Season
- None
2016-17 Offseason
- Acquired RHP Victor Alcantara from Tigers for OF Cameron Maybin
- Acquired OF Mikie Mahtook from Rays for cash
2017 Season
- Acquired INF Dawel Lugo, INF Sergio Alcantara and INF Jose King from Diamondbacks for OF J.D. Martinez
- Acquired INF Jeimer Candelario and SS Isaac Paredes from Cubs for LHP Justin Wilson and C Alex Avila
- Acquired RHP Grayson Long and RHP Elvin Rodriguez from Angels for OF Justin Upton
- Acquired RHP Franklin Perez, OF Daz Cameron and C Jake Rogers from Astros for RHP Justin Verlander
2017-18 Offseason
- Acquired RHP Wilkel Hernandez and OF Troy Montgomery from Angels for 2B Ian Kinsler
- Acquired SS Willi Castro and RHP Kyle Dowdy from Indians for OF Leonys Martin
2018 Season
- Acquired RHP Nolan Blackwood (link) & RHP Logan Shore (link) from Athletics for RHP Mike Fiers
2018-19 Offseason
- None
2019 Season
- Acquired RHP Paul Richan and RHP Alex Lange from Cubs for OF Nicholas Castellanos
- Acquired LHP Joey Wentz and OF Travis Demeritte from Braves for RHP Shane Greene
—
What do you think of Avila’s trade history? (Poll link for app users.)
How would you grade Avila's trade history?
-
D 34% (2,137)
-
C 30% (1,878)
-
F 25% (1,555)
-
B 10% (600)
-
A 1% (82)
Total votes: 6,252
AL Central Notes: Buxton, Fulmer, Royals
The Twins‘ expectation is that center fielder Byron Buxton would’ve been in center field on Opening Day had the season commenced on time, writes Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. The 26-year-old underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder last September, and manager Rocco Baldelli said in a weekend conference call that Buxton’s rehab from the procedure “could not have gone smoother.” Buxton was a bit limited early in camp during the first spring training, but he’ll be on a normal schedule if a second (likely abbreviated) training camp is able to come together. Injuries have plagued much of Buxton’s career — crashing into the center field fence on the regular and frequently laying out for diving attempts take their toll on a body — but he turned in a .262/.314/.513 slash line (114 OPS+, 111 wRC+) in 295 plate appearances when healthy last season. Despite playing in only 87 games, he tied for fifth among MLB outfielders in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.
More out of the division…
- Michael Fulmer‘s rehab from Tommy John surgery is on track, and the Tigers right-hander would likely be ready for a minor league rehab stint in early July if play has resumed by that point, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Fulmer’s 2018 season was cut short due to knee surgery, and he sustained the UCL tear that led to his Tommy John surgery last spring. A late start to the year and an pushed-back end date would give Fulmer some additional innings, though he’s quick to say that he “[doesn’t] think there are any positives to take out of” the COVID-19 pandemic, even while acknowledging that it could allow him to get in more work in 2020. Fulmer, the 2016 American League Rookie of the Year (159 innings, 3.06 ERA, 5.4 rWAR), hasn’t pitched since September 2018 and will be arbitration-eligible for the third time next winter. He’s a Super Two player and remains under club control through the 2022 season.
- Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star takes an interesting look at the manner in which the Royals‘ front office is operating amid the suspended state of play. And while the makeshift manner in which the club’s player development staff now has to interact with players is obviously a sub-optimal setup, assistant general manager J.J. Picollo believes that the club “will end up with better processes for our offseason communication” as a result of needing to be more nimble with their interactions. Regular Zoom meetings; webinars on nutrition, pitch grips and new technologies to utilize; and more concrete one-on-one communication schedules have been put into place via a variety of platforms.
Extension Candidates: AL Central
It’s now official: MLB rosters are frozen. We won’t see any players coming and going for some times. And it’s unlikely that any new long-term extensions will be announced. But that doesn’t mean such deals won’t be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.
While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).
In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East, and AL West. To round things out, here are some possible extension candidates from the AL Central …
Indians
Francisco Lindor is the big story. Unfortunately, that ship seems to have sailed: he informed the team he’d like to halt talks since the sides weren’t making progress. Unless there’s a change of heart and another attempt during the current pause, Lindor is not going to sign onto a long-term deal (at least, before he has reached his final season of arbitration eligibility later in 2020).
There are a few other interesting candidates. Top hurlers Mike Clevinger and Brad Hand would be of interest, but the Cleveland org may not be able to afford these high-end veterans. Perhaps a few others would be more achievable targets for the cost-efficient Indians. Outfielder Oscar Mercado has only 139 days of service under his belt, meaning he’s two full seasons away from likely Super Two arbitration qualification. Young starters Shane Bieber and Adam Plutko are each in the 1+ service class, so they shouldn’t cost all that much and could convey significant upside.
Royals
There are certainly some interesting questions for the K.C. organization to consider. Slugger Jorge Soler had an eye-popping 2019 … but is he going to keep it going and should the team lock into a player who profiles best as a DH? And how about exciting young shortstop Adalberto Mondesi? There’s no real limit to his ceiling but he had some struggles last year and is still working back from a shoulder injury.
The situation is equally uncertain on the pitching side. Righty Brad Keller has had success through two full MLB seasons but isn’t exactly a top-of-the-rotation arm. You could perhaps make a case for relievers Scott Barlow and Tim Hill, though there doesn’t seem to be a pressing reason to push for a deal with either.
Tigers
The Detroit MLB roster turned in a roundly awful 2019 season. But it still has a few potential targets. The versatile Niko Goodrum could be a part of quite a few rosters around the game, though there’s no particular need to lock into him for the long haul. There are more interesting candidates on the pitching side: starter Matthew Boyd and reliever Joe Jimenez. The former has a whole lot of upside and three more seasons of team control remaining; perhaps the club could take a bit of a gamble. As for Jimenez, 2020 is something of a boom or bust year — rack up a lot of saves and he’ll get a big first-time arbitration payday; stumble and he may not do very well at all. Perhaps he and the club could take share the risk over a longer term.
It’s probably a bit too soon to consider the top of the farm system for deals. But this time next winter, the Tigers could have a host of interesting candidates.
Twins
Both of last winter’s extensions turned out well; the team struck again more recently with Miguel Sano. Perhaps the most obvious remaining candidate is quality young righty Jose Berrios, who is entering his first season of arbitration eligibility. Now that he’s in line for bigger money, it’ll cost more to do a deal. The sides have struck out in previous talks. Byron Buxton is also a 3+ service-class player. There’s likely too much uncertainty in his outlook to structure a deal, but it’s not out of the question.
It’s tempting to stake out a case for a deal with breakout catcher Mitch Garver, but he’s already 29 years of age and still a full season away from arbitration eligibility. Outfielder Eddie Rosario is two seasons from the open market, but that also gives him greater leverage for a higher price tag. Would the Twins really want to commit?
How about a few wild cards? Infielder Luis Arraez should at least be a nice utility player for years to come. There might be upside in an early deal for the plate-discipline magician. And reliever Taylor Rogers is another interesting target. He’s still three seasons from free agency but gets more impressive with each successive campaign. The Twins will owe him a big raise on his $4.45MM salary if he keeps racking up saves; perhaps a deal could suit both sides.
White Sox
The South Siders have already extended a wide swath of their roster. You might wonder whether there are any candidates left. But the team is exceptionally aggressive in this arena and can’t be counted out on exploring deals with just about anyone of interest.
The most obvious candidate at this point is righty Lucas Giolito. We recently broke down his case for an extension. You could perhaps argue for fellow starters Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease, or even injury rehabbers Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon, but there’s likely too much uncertainty in each of those situations for the sides to see eye to eye. The same is true of outfielder Nomar Mazara.
If you’re looking for a sleeper candidate … how about second baseman Nick Madrigal? The Sox haven’t been shy at all with pre-MLB extensions and the former fourth-overall pick is just about ready for a run at the game’s highest level.
Rookie Radar: AL Central
The delayed start to the 2020 season will obviously have a wide range of massive effects on Major League Baseball. Among them: a totally different promotional timeline for some of the game’s most exciting young players. We will never know how things would’ve unfolded. And we don’t yet even know what the parameters are for an altered season. But there’s no doubting the impact.
Typically, opportunities open as rosters evolve over the course of a grueling, 162-game season. Some top prospects force their way up to the majors; others are called upon because a need arises. In a shorter campaign, there’ll be less attrition … though we may also see relaxed roster rules and changes to allocation of service time that could create opportunities.
Still, with more time to examine rosters and think about the state of the game, there’s an opportunity to stop and appreciate the young talent on the cusp of the majors. We’ll run through the most interesting prospects pressing for near-term MLB action. Having already looked at the American League West, let’s head to the AL Central:
Indians
Third baseman Nolan Jones won’t be tasked with a big league job out of the gates, but could be an option if there’s a need and/or he develops as hoped. Soon to turn 22, Jones has done nothing but produce in the minors. He’s due for a bit more seasoning at Triple-A but is close to ready.
Otherwise, most of the best-regarded Cleveland farmhands are further off. But there are some other prospects of note who are immediate factors. Relievers Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak could hold key bullpen roles, though the former will first need to get to full health. Southpaw Logan Allen is a swingman option. First baseman Bobby Bradley and outfielder Daniel Johnson are both on the 40-man roster and ready for MLB chances after strong seasons in the upper minors. (Bradley also made a brief 2019 debut but struggled in the bigs.)
Royals
The rebuilding Royals need not be in any rush, but top pitching prospects Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar could force the organization’s hand. The former sprinted to Double-A in his first professional season; the latter in his second. They both looked plenty comfortable at the penultimate level of the minors and will likely dictate their own timelines.
Otherwise, there are only a few players with significant “prospect” billing who seem likely to be near-term options. Outfielder Nick Heath and third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez are both on the 40-man roster, so could be called upon to fill any injury gaps. Outfielder Khalil Lee is considered a higher-upside young player, though he’ll need to polish some things up if he’s to force his way onto the MLB roster in 2020. The pitching staff could call upon inexperienced arms including Scott Blewett, Chance Adams, and Richard Lovelady.
Twins
The Minnesota organization just keeps getting more intriguing. Depending upon the development of some top prospects and needs at the MLB level, it could be another year for interesting graduations … or one to watch and wait.
Top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff both have the ability and the positioning to press for the majors in the near term. But will they force the issue … or will there be an opening? The Twins aren’t in need of help at shortstop or in the outfield, at least on paper, but both have star-level upside and will get their chance when the time is right.
Outfielder/first baseman Brent Rooker doesn’t have a clear path to the bigs just yet but could get a look if a need arises. Though he is no longer considered an elite prospect, infielder Nick Gordon is also a near-term option. His situation is helped by the fact he already has a 40-man roster spot. Likewise, having already debuted, lefty Lewis Thorpe is perhaps the best-regarded Minnesota pitching prospect who’s an immediate possibility for the majors, though we’ll surely see fellow lefty Devin Smeltzer and right-hander Randy Dobnak in 2020 as well. Both impressed in their 2019 debuts. Flamethrowing righty Jorge Alcala allowed two runs in 20 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors after moving to the ‘pen in late July.
Tigers
The Detroit organization is banking on its pitching factory. We’ll begin to see the results in the immediate future. Top starting prospects Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Beau Burrows, and Alex Faedo are all nearing readiness. And the team also has some promising relievers on tap, including Bryan Garcia, Anthony Castro, and perhaps Rule 5 choice Rony Garcia. Precisely when and how these arms will be slotted into the MLB staff remains to be seen. In the starting staff, especially, the organization has others in line first. But mid-season movement is highly possible (depending, in no small part, upon what shape the 2020 season takes).
Though the position-player side of the farm isn’t as loaded, there are quite a few near-term candidates for MLB roles. Infielders Isaac Paredes, Willi Castro, and Sergio Alcantara all have 40-man spots and can be called upon as soon as there’s a need or desire to do so. Ditto outfielder Daz Cameron, a player who has had ups and downs in the minors but still possesses a fairly lofty ceiling. Catcher Jake Rogers had an abysmal debut with the bat but hit well in the upper minors last year and is considered a quality defender.
White Sox
Last but certainly not least … the South Siders are stacked with young players who’ll be given MLB trials in the near term. Recently extended center fielder Luis Robert leads the charge as one of the game’s most touted prospects. But there are other blue-chippers as well. Given the delay in the season, high-upside righty Michael Kopech will have a chance to finish rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. And recent first-rounder Nick Madrigal has little left to show in the upper minors. He could take over at second base and push Leury Garcia into a utility role.
Those are the big names, but there are others as well. Infielder Danny Mendick had a nice cup of coffee last year and could also be a platoon option at second base or take on a utility job. With a 26th roster spot to work with, bat-first catchers Zack Collins and Seby Zavala could play interesting roles. Righties Zack Burdi and Ian Hamilton will have to overcome health troubles but could end up playing significant roles in the bullpen if they’re able.
Recently Optioned Players Of Note
In case you haven’t noticed, transactions aren’t exactly plentiful since the league shut down Spring Training. There have still been a few batches of moves in the past few days, however, with a trio of Central Division clubs sending some players to their minor league ranks.
- The Brewers optioned corner infielder Ryon Healy to Triple-A, per the MLB.com transactions log. The 28-year-old slugger’s 2019 season with the Mariners came to an end when he underwent August hip surgery, and he opted for free agency in the winter when Seattle removed him from its 40-man roster (as was his right as a player with three-plus years of service time). Healy signed a one-year deal with the Brewers and, assuming he’s healthy, should factor into Milwaukee’s mix at both corner-infield slots and as a right-handed bench bat. He notched a .282/.313/.475 slash through 888 plate appearances with the A’s in his first two big league seasons but never matched that production in Seattle (.236/.280/.423 in 711 plate appearances). Healy was healthy enough to play in 10 spring games, but he went 4-for-23 with a walk and seven strikeouts in 24 trips to the dish, which didn’t exactly help him stand out from a crowded group of infield options. Milwaukee also optioned catcher David Freitas and infielders Mark Mathias and Ronny Rodriguez.
- Catcher Zack Collins was optioned to Triple-A Charlotte by the White Sox. The former No. 10 overall pick out of Miami, Collins is now blocked long-term by Yasmani Grandal at catcher. James McCann‘s presence on the roster eliminates the possibility of Collins serving as a backup, and the organization would surely prefer him to get everyday at-bats rather than toiling away on the bench anyhow. Collins could potentially see some increased reps at first base down the road, particularly if Jose Abreu transitions to more of a DH role in 2021 and beyond. Collins struggled with a .186/.307/.349 slash in 102 MLB plate appearances in his debut last season, also striking out at an alarming 38.2 percent clip. But he ripped Triple-A pitching apart with a .282/.403/.548 slash, 19 home runs and a massive 17 percent walk rate in 367 trips to the plate with Charlotte. Chicago also optioned fellow catcher Yermin Mercedes and right-handed reliever Jose Ruiz to Triple-A.
- The Tigers announced this week that catcher Jake Rogers was optioned to Triple-A Toledo. That move shouldn’t come as a surprise, particularly after Detroit signed longtime Yankees backstop Austin Romine earlier this winter. The Tigers hope that Rogers can be the catcher of the future, but he floundered in 128 big league plate appearances upon debuting last year. Rogers is only 24 and only had 191 career plate appearances in Triple-A when he was summoned to the Majors last year, so there’s still plenty of hope — particularly considering the manner in which he ripped through Double-A competition last year (.302/.429/.535 — 179 wRC+). Tigers general manager Al Avila suggested this winter that Rogers needs some more seasoning in Triple-A, though, so he’ll get that while Romine and Grayson Greiner comprise the catching tandem at the MLB level.