Justin Wilson Trade Rumors: Thursday
Justin Wilson has been among the most talked-about assets on the trade market, and the sheer volume of updates on the expansive market for his services is enough to warrant its own dedicated post with the deadline looming. Here’s the latest on the Tigers southpaw, who currently boasts a 2.75 ERA with 12.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 36.1 percent ground-ball rate…
- It seems the list of possible suitors isn’t getting any shorter just yet. To the contrary, the Indians have also asked about Wilson’s price tag, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Cleveland is down a lefty after losing Boone Logan.
Earlier Updates
- The Yankees have joined the pursuit of Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. It was New York that traded Wilson to the Tigers in the first place (for righties Chad Green and Luis Cessa), and while the Yanks have already beefed up their ‘pen with the additions of David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle, they appear further interested in adding a shutdown lefty. The Tigers, though, are aiming extremely high in talks for Wilson, with Fenech suggesting that they’re seeking an Aroldis Chapman -esque return for Wilson. While the 29-year-old Wilson is earning a bargain $2.7MM salary and can be controlled through 2018 via arbitration, that’s still a sky-high ask. The Cubs sent Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Adam Warren and Rashad Crawford to New York in exchange for Chapman last summer.
- The Astros could be the most focused team on Tigers southpaw Justin Wilson, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Wilson has leapfrogged Orioles closer Zach Britton on the Astros’ list of targets, though all indications are that the ask on Wilson is extremely high. Houston is hardly alone in its pursuit of Wilson and has yet to definitively separate itself from the pack, however, per Crasnick (Twitter links). There are at least six teams still in on Wilson, with the Nationals “strongly” in the mix. Lastly, Crasnick tweets that the odds of a package deal sending Wilson and Justin Verlander to a team “are not good” due to the complex nature of such negotiations.
- FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes that the Brewers, Astros and Red Sox were recently considered to be the leaders in the Wilson sweepstakes, though others are in on him as well. Heyman lists the Cubs, Rockies, D-backs, Dodgers and Nationals as other potential landing spots in a trade.
Tigers Exploring Package Trade Scenarios
The Tigers have several players known to be available, and ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (on Twitter) that the team is currently exploring trade scenarios involving multiple players as a means of clearing some salary off the books. That would mesh with a recent report from Olney’s colleague, Jerry Crasnick, in which Crasnick reported that Detroit has tried to attach second baseman Ian Kinsler to Justin Wilson in trade talks with the Brewers. (Not to say that Kinsler is a pure salary dump, of course, as he too carries value to other clubs.)
[Related: Taking Inventory — Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers depth chart | Detroit Tigers payroll outlook]
In addition to Wilson and Kinsler, the Tigers are expected to move catcher Alex Avila and are reported to have shopped Justin Verlander around the league. Detroit could also conceivably move right-hander Anibal Sanchez, who has been much improved in six starts since returning from the minors. The team’s enormous commitment to righty Jordan Zimmermann looks largely immovable right now thanks to Zimmermann’s struggles and full no-trade clause, and while Justin Upton has absolutely raked over the past calendar year, he’s owed $88.5MM from 2018-21 and has the right to opt out of his contract at season’s end as well.
Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press adds some more context to the Tigers’ stance on Verlander, reporting that Detroit has shown a willingness to pay off the remainder of Verlander’s $28MM salary in 2017 — a sum of about $10.4MM — but they’re not interested in picking up any of the $56MM he’s owed from 2018-19. That hasn’t been enough to generate any serious talks surrounding Verlander to date.
Michael Fulmer is the most intriguing name to pop up in trade talks this summer, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that it’s been difficult to gauge exactly what the Tigers’ plans are for the reigning Rookie of the Year. Sherman writes that some execs have been told that Fulmer is firmly off limits, while others say the Tigers have briefly floated his name before turning talks to Justin Verlander. Perhaps most interestingly, Sherman writes that one exec said the Tigers pitched a scenario in which Fulmer would be packaged with the remaining money on the contracts of Zimmermann ($80.7MM through 2020) or Upton ($96.7MM through 2021).
MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Brewers and Tigers remain engaged in ongoing talks pertaining to Kinsler and Wilson, though he also cautions that no deal is close. Earlier tonight, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reported that the Rockies are interested in both Avila and Wilson, which would create another package scenario, though not one that would give the Rox much of an opportunity to shed salary, as both are highly affordable. The Cubs have been frequently connected to both Verlander and Avila as well, with Morosi tweeting a couple of hours ago that Chicago has maintained some level of interest in Verlander but is reluctant to pick up his whole contract in a trade (as are the rest of the teams in MLB). Fenech notes in his above-linked column that the Cubs have had scouts at each of Verlander’s past three starts.
Rockies Seeking Catching Upgrades, Bullpen Arms
The Rockies are looking to upgrade behind the dish and are interested in Rangers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, reports T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Sullivan’s colleague, Thomas Harding, reports that the Rox also have some interest in Braves backstop Kurt Suzuki and Tigers catcher Alex Avila.
All three of the options listed are set to hit free agency upon completion of the 2017 campaign, and none of the bunch is earning at a substantial rate. Lucroy’s $5.75MM salary is the heftiest of the bunch, while Avila is earning $2MM in 2017 and Suzuki is owed only the balance of a $1.5MM base salary (plus some modest incentives).
The 31-year-old entered the season as one of the consensus top free agents on the 2017-18 market, but he’s seen both his bat and his glove take steps backward in his first full season with Texas. After being acquired just prior to last year’s non-waiver deadline, Lucroy raked at an exceptional .276/.345/.539 pace with 11 homers in 168 plate appearances down the stretch. However, he’s batting just .240/.293/.339 through 294 plate appearances this season and has begun to cede some playing time to Robinson Chirinos.
Lucroy has caught 30 percent of those that have attempted to steal against him, but he’s also seen his once-vaunted framing numbers deteriorate to the point that Baseball Prospectus ranks him as one of the league’s worst pitch framers.
It’s the opposite story for the 30-year-old Avila, who has broken out in a substantial way in 2017. A well-above-average catcher with the Tigers in 2011-12, Avila’s career was mired in a downward spiral before a return to the Motor City sparked a renaissance. He’s hitting .280/.402/.488 with 11 homers through just 256 plate appearances and has slashed his strikeout rate from 37.3 percent in 2016 to a more passable (but still too high) 29.7 percent this year.
While many have questioned Avila’s ability to sustain this pace, there isn’t a player in baseball (min. 250 PAs) that has a higher hard-contact rate than Avila’s 50 percent. His 92 mph average exit velocity is also among the top 10 in the league, trailing only Aaron Judge, Miguel Sano, Khris Davis, Joey Gallo, Manny Machado and Nelson Cruz. He’s sporting a 31 percent caught-stealing rate but, like Lucroy, has received below-average marks in framing this year (albeit to a lesser extent than Lucroy).
Suzuki, meanwhile, is hitting .255/.340/.468 through 163 plate appearances in his first season with Atlanta. While SunTrust Park has a homer-friendly reputation, six of Suzuki’s eight big flies have come on the road this season. He’s caught a much-improved 26 percent of potential base thieves with the Braves and has demonstrated some improved but still shaky framing skills, per B-Pro.
The reason for the Rockies’ interest in catching upgrades isn’t difficult to see. Tony Wolters has shouldered the bulk of the time behind the dish this season, but he’s posted a meager .255/.351/.306 batting line, with much of that OBP boost coming from batting in front of Rockies pitchers. On the whole, Rockies backstops have posted a dismal .234/.313/.310 batting line — an especially unsightly level of output when considering their hitter-friendly home park.
Harding further reports that the Rox have “extensively” scouted Tigers left-hander Justin Wilson, adding names like Brad Brach, Zach Britton and AJ Ramos as other names the Rox have at least kept an eye on.
It’s not hard to connect some dots and expect that the Rox could have interest in a combo deal that would net them both Avila and Wilson from Detroit, though the asking price on that affordable and excellent pairing would figure to be high. Similarly, I’d imagine there’ve at least been internal discussions about the possibility of pairing one of the Baltimore relievers with Orioles catcher Welington Castillo, though his bat has cooled considerably since suffering a groin injury earlier this summer. That last connection is merely my own speculation, but if the Orioles do indeed listen on their relievers, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see them gauge interest in Castillo as well.
Pitching Market Notes: Gray, Nats, Yankees, Verlander, Royals, Brewers
We checked in already today on one key factor for the pitching market: the availability of Rangers righty Yu Darvish. And we have just provided an overview of the remaining arms that could be available this summer. Here are some more notable pieces of information with a week to go until the trade deadline:
- The Nationals and Athletics are still engaged after completing one significant trade, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Whether A’s righty Sonny Gray could come up between the organizations isn’t yet clear, but there are now indications that the Nats are at least beginning to think about the possibility of pursuing a starter. The organization likely would do just that if it finds cause for significant concern with Stephen Strasburg, who just left his most recent start with forearm tightness. And it is worth bearing in mind that Washington will need another starter for 2018 with Joe Ross expected to miss the entire season after Tommy John surgery. But unless the Nationals find evidence of a larger problem for Strasburg, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post wrote yesterday, the club will probably keep its sights set on continuing to improve the bullpen. But a mounting list of injuries could perhaps force the organization to weigh alternatives even as it continues to pace the NL East by a hefty margin.
- Youthful outfielders are the Athletics‘ top priority in Gray talks, Morosi notes in the above post and a subsequent tweet. One prospect that has drawn their attention is Yankees youngster Estevan Florial, Morosi says, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand noting on Twitter that New York is “not against including him in a trade package.” Of course, several other organizations rumored to have eyes for Gray also seem to have the types of young outfielders that would draw Oakland’s interest.
- While the Cubs addressed their most pressing rotation needs already, they are continuing to watch and discuss Justin Verlander with the Tigers, Morosi further reports. As Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network writes (Facebook link), Chicago seems to have the future payroll space needed to add Verlander without risking luxury tax complications. While it’s still unclear just how motivated the Cubs are on the veteran righty, it seems that a match remains plausible.
- Even after adding Trevor Cahill yesterday, the Royals are continuing to eye the market for rotation upgrades, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Kansas City could even bump Cahill into the bullpen if a significant enough piece were to be found, Heyman notes. It’s worth noting that K.C. was able to add three arms to its current roster without taking on significant salary obligations; perhaps, then, there’s still a bit of flexibility remaining for the organization to make another upgrade.
- While the Brewers perhaps no longer are a favorite to land Gray, they could still be active on other hurlers. Rosenthal tweets that veteran Blue Jays reliever Joe Smith was of interest to Milwaukee in the offseason and could be pursued at the deadline. Smith has been knocked around a bit in his two most recent outings, which occurred on both ends of a DL stint. But he was carrying a 2.64 ERA prior to that point and is only earning $3MM this year. With 49 strikeouts and just eight walks in Smith’s 32 2/3 innings on the year, there’s obvious appeal; perhaps the Brewers could see an opportunity to achieve value on a solid relief option, though surely some other contenders will feel the same way.
Deadline Chatter: Darvish, Gray, Neshek, Cabrera, Marlins
As things stand right now, the Rangers are leaning against dealing star righty Yu Darvish, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. That could still change with an “overwhelming” offer or a total collapse in the standings, he notes. There’s still no clarity in the American League Wild Card picture, and the Rangers remain as plausible a contender as any, so perhaps the smoke surrounding Darvish really has come from an extinguished flame. That storyline promises to be among the most notable of the coming week, not least of which because of interest from the suddenly Clayton Kershaw-less Dodgers. Los Angeles seems to be taking something of a Darvish-or-bust stance with regard to starters, Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests in a tweet.
More deadline chatter:
- The Brewers are “fading” in the race to acquire Athletics righty Sonny Gray, according to Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s not clear whether that’s owing to a change in Milwaukee’s position or the rise of an alternative suitor, but it’s obviously notable. The Brewers seem well-positioned to add a pitcher such as Gray, though perhaps other organizations have greater motivation to boost their near-term product. One such team is the Yankees, who believe they are better than their record, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. That view has helped spur the team’s deadline activity, including its effort to get a starter — with Gray perhaps representing the best fit.
- We continue to hear of widespread interest in Phillies reliever Pat Neshek, though it remains unclear just how much he’ll draw in return. A few teams still looking hard at him are the Nationals, Dodgers, and Red Sox, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Those three clubs are among several that seem to be looking over a variety of relief pitchers, of course.
- The Mets believe internally that they will end up trading infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes in an update on the team’s deadline situation. That seemingly reflects not only the fairly robust demand, but also the team’s assessment of its interest (or lack thereof) in bringing Cabrera back for 2018 through a club option. Aside from Cabrera and top trade piece Addison Reed, the Mets are said to be receiving middling interest in their pending free agents — despite the fact that all are playing rather well. Puma notes that lofty salaries would make all of the team’s other major trade candidates (Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Neil Walker) plausible August trade pieces.
- In Marlins injury news, the club announced that first baseman Justin Bour left today’s game with an oblique strain, as Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel reports. While nothing is official as of yet, skipper Don Mattingly said it’s expected that Bour will require a DL stint. Meanwhile, righty Edinson Volquez did not have an encouraging throwing session today, Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel tweets. As the veteran heads for a second opinion on his ailing knee, it seems that he’ll remain out a while longer. These two players, then, seem quite unlikely to factor into deadline talks — though that was unlikely in any event.
- The likeliest scenario at this point is that the Tigers will try to move second baseman Ian Kinsler over the offseason –after exercising his option for 2018 — Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets. Likewise, the Yankees will probably look to see if there’s a taker for outfielder Jacoby Ellsburgy this winter, Feinsand tweets. That’s not terribly surprising in either case, though surely there’d seem to be greater odds that Kinsler could end up on the move — and indeed he may yet.
Pitching Rumors: Gray, Verlander, Darvish, Dodgers, Straily
With the non-waiver deadline a week from today, here’s a look at some of the talk pertaining to the top names available on the pitching market…
- MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that the Mariners could be considering a run at Sonny Gray. Though intradivision trades are rare, GM Jerry Dipoto has already made multiple trades within the division (including the Danny Valencia trade with Gray’s Athletics), Feinsand observes. (Additionally, A’s president Billy Beane has also dealt with division rivals more frequently than most presidents/GMs). One obstacle, of course, would be the Mariners’ farm system. Seattle has already dealt Tyler O’Neill to the Cardinals for Marco Gonzales, and the M’s acquired David Phelps for a four-prospect package headlined by well-regarded young outfielder Brayan Hernandez as well. Feinsand notes that Gray would very likely require the Mariners to part with top prospect Kyle Lewis, though there’d need to be additional prospects in any package, and it’s not clear if Seattle could cobble together a bid that would top the rest of the field.
- The Tigers are “aggressively shopping” Justin Verlander, Feinsand hears, but Detroit also “doesn’t appear willing to eat much” of Verlander’s remaining contract to facilitate a deal. Feinsand spoke to one American League GM that termed most of the talks regarding Verlander as “idle conversation,” though that GM also predicted that the former Cy Young winner will be moved by next Monday’s deadline.
- The Dodgers were interested in Rangers ace Yu Darvish even before Clayton Kershaw‘s back injury, writes Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The timetable for Kershaw’s return, once determined, will further impact their level of interest in Darvish and other arms on the market. Morosi hears that among Dodgers’ top prospects, the team is most attached to right-hander Walker Buehler, who has already ascended to Triple-A and could conceivably help the club in 2017. Texas, meanwhile, would likely target two of the Dodgers’ top four prospects (Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Alex Verdugo and Willie Calhoun), per Morosi, which is a steep but largely unsurprising ask with the Rangers seemingly on the fence about whether to move Darvish at all.
- The Marlins are missing an important opportunity to try to convince a team to overpay for right-hander Dan Straily, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Teams like the Cubs, Twins, Brewers and Mariners are all on the hunt for controllable arms, and Straily is controlled through 2020 with very solid numbers dating back to Opening Day 2016. The paucity of quality arms available could allow the Fish to accelerate their rebuild by cashing in on Straily, but the Marlins are instead shopping only their relievers and “perhaps Dee Gordon,” according to Sherman.
NL Central Rumors: Kinsler, Cardinals, McCutchen, Herrera
The Brewers were connected to Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler over the weekend, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick adds some more context. Per Crasnick, while the two sides have discussed Kinsler, those talks were more about Detroit trying to package Kinsler with left-hander Justin Wilson in a deal. The Brewers “would love to have Kinsler,” Crasnick writes, but their primary focus at this point is on improving the rotation and/or bullpen. Milwaukee is actively exploring trades for help in both areas, according to Crasnick.
- Stephen Piscotty‘s groin injury, originally hoped to require only a minimal 10-day stay on the disabled list, will now keep the outfielder sidelined for a longer period of time, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Cardinals will reevaluate Piscotty on their upcoming homestand in search of a new timetable for his return to the field. It’s been a disappointing season for Piscotty, who has slashed just .236/.348/.371 in the first season of a six-year, $33.5MM contract extension.
- Goold also notes that Cardinals righty Lance Lynn has been the “topic of ongoing discussions with other teams” and points out that both Lynn and minor league right-hander Luke Weaver are lined up to start on Tuesday of this week. While there have been no indications that a deal involving Lynn is especially close to fruition, Weaver would be able to step into his spot on usual rest if the Cards do line up a Lynn trade in short order.
- The Pirates are leaning against trading Andrew McCutchen, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, but they’ve also yet to give him a definite indication that they plan to pick up his $14.5MM club option. That seems like all but a formality at this juncture, given McCutchen’s resurgence at the plate over the past couple of months. The 30-year-old’s .292/.384/.507 batting line places him among the game’s most productive center fielders, even if his glovework in the outfield is still drawing poor marks from defensive metrics.
- The Reds may not get a look at Dilson Herrera in 2017, as Triple-A manager Delino DeShields recently told Redleg Nation’s Jason Linden, “from what I’ve been told, he’s probably done for the year” due to a shoulder injury. Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that no one in the Cincinnati front office has offered such a definitive take just yet, though he reports that team doctors are set to evaluate Herrera in Cincinnati this week. Acquired in last year’s Jay Bruce trade, the 23-year-old Herrera hit .264/.312/.397 in 265 Triple-A plate appearances this season. Herrera also battled shoulder issues in 2016 and spent most of this past Spring Training as a DH due to his shoulder.
Brewers Considering Trading For Ian Kinsler
2:17pm: The Brewers’ interest in Kinsler will likely hinge on fellow second baseman Eric Sogard‘s health, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. Sogard is returning from a DL stint caused by an ankle injury. He’s hit brilliantly in 162 plate appearances this season, with a .331/.438/.485 line thus far.
10:54am: The Brewers are exploring the possibility of trading for Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets. The Brewers have also recently been connected to Tigers trade possibilities like Justin Verlander and Justin Wilson, so it’s possible a deal for Kinsler could be one of many trade scenarios involving Detroit they’re considering.
The 35-year-old Kinsler is currently hitting .244/.324/.397 while receiving typically above-average reviews for his defense. Current Brewers second baseman Jonathan Villar has struggled this season, batting just .223/.287/.350 after a breakout season in 2016. Acquiring Kinsler might allow the Brewers to move Villar back into the utility role he occupied last year. The extension Kinsler signed with the Rangers in 2012 is front-loaded, so it’s less of a concern than it might typically be for a payroll-conscious team like the Brewers — Kinsler makes just $11MM this season, plus a $5MM buyout or a very reasonable $10MM option for 2018.
The 52-47 Brewers are somewhat of a surprise contender this year and are only now emerging from a retooling phase. They’re also in the midst of a six-game losing streak. Seen from that perspective, they might be somewhat reluctant to deal top young talent for a veteran like Kinsler. When they’ve contended in the recent past, though, they have not been shy about paying high prices for stars like Zack Greinke (for whom they gave up a very costly package of Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress) and CC Sabathia (who cost them Michael Brantley). Their outlook on such trades might be somewhat different now with David Stearns replacing Doug Melvin at GM, but then again perhaps not, since they’ve also been strongly connected to Athletics ace Sonny Gray.
White Sox To Acquire Mark Lowe, Jean Machi
The White Sox have acquired veteran relievers Mark Lowe and Jean Machi from the Mariners, according to Triple-A Tacoma broadcaster Mike Curto (Twitter link). Both will report to Chicago’s top affiliate.
It seems that this isn’t a part of a larger deal, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that cash is heading back to the M’s. Clearly, the addition of these two players by the rebuilding South Siders is designed to help the team maintain its pen depth down the stretch. Chicago has already traded away a pair of relievers from its major league roster and could move yet more by the trade deadline.
Lowe, 35, was released by the Tigers late in camp after a disappointing run in Detroit. He joined the Mariners on a minors pact and has gone on to post a 6.23 ERA in 39 innings, all at Triple-A. Lowe has struck out 8.5 and walked 4.6 batters per nine on the year.
As for the 35-year-old Machi, he did enjoy a brief MLB stint earlier this season — his first since 2015 — but has spent most of the year at Tacoma. Over 36 2/3 innings, Machi carries a 3.44 ERA with 7.1 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9.
Tigers Notes: Verlander, Avila, Wilson
Some trade rumblings out of the Motor City…
- The Tigers are reportedly willing to pay the rest of Justin Verlander‘s remaining 2017 salary in order to facilitate a deal, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports. This works out to roughly $10.89MM. Reports earlier this week indicated that Detroit was open to including some money as part of a Verlander deal, though according to rival executives who have spoken with Fenech, the Tigers would need to bump that figure up to $25MM-$30MM if the club hopes to receive a good prospect return for Verlander. The former Cy Young Award winner’s future salary obligations ($28MM in each of the next two seasons, and a $22MM vesting option for 2020) and his struggles in 2017 have greatly limited his trade value, though Fenech notes that teams like the Cubs and Dodgers still had scouts at Verlander’s most recent outing.
- The Cubs have expressed the most interest in catcher Alex Avila, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter links), and Nightengale feels Avila will be the next notable Tiger to leave Detroit now that J.D. Martinez has been traded. Nightengale figures the Tigers would “ideally” receive a mid-level prospect in exchange for Avila, who is enjoying a career year just before hitting free agency this winter. Detroit is reportedly getting a lot of interest in Avila, though the Cubs and Blue Jays are the only teams specifically linked to the catcher (and Toronto has since acquired Miguel Montero).
- Also from Nightengale, he reports that the Brewers “have been aggressive” in their pursuit of Tigers closer Justin Wilson. The Astros, Nationals, Rays and Red Sox are among the other teams known to be checking in on Wilson, who has only elevated his stock since taking over the ninth inning for Detroit. Milwaukee has been linked to any number of relievers and controllable starters, with Wilson joining such names as Brad Hand, Addison Reed and Sonny Gray.