Elias Type A/Type B Free Agents

Eddie Bajek over at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has added Elias rankings for American League starting pitchers.  Thoughts:

• A.J. Burnett is comfortably a Type A, so the Jays should get a couple of nice draft picks if and when he opts out.
• Yankees pitchers Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina have Type A status (Mussina is on the borderline).  It makes sense for the Yankees to offer arbitration to both.
• Jon Garland and Paul Byrd are Type Bs.  The Angels seem likely to offer Garland arbitration.
• Kenny Rogers was not able to earn Type A or B status.

Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts ran the Elias numbers for the NL infielders.  Thoughts:

• Despite his injury, Orlando Hudson appears safe as a Type A.  The D’Backs could get a draft pick bonanza if Hudson, Adam Dunn, and Brandon Lyon are offered arbitration and sign elsewhere.  That won’t help them in ’09 though.
• Casey Blake is a Type B; I could see him seeking a multiyear deal in a weak third base market.  The Dodgers may re-sign him, though.
• Rafael Furcal seems to have neither Type A nor Type B status, due to his injury this year.  So the team that signs him does not have to worry about losing draft picks.

Eddie Bajek has been doing great work reverse-engineering the Elias rankings over at his blog, Detroit Tigers Thoughts.  He’s now ranked catchers, first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters for both leagues.

An explanation of free agent draft pick compensation can be found here.  For a team to get draft picks, they need to offer arbitration to their free agent and then have him decline and sign elsewhere.  So it either has to be a player they wouldn’t mind having on a one-year deal, or a player who is a lock for a multiyear contract.

Looking at Eddie’s (unfinished) list, the following free agents are Type A or B and likely to net draft picks: Mark Teixeira (Braves), Raul Ibanez (Mariners), Milton Bradley (Rangers), Manny Ramirez (Dodgers), Pat Burrell (Phillies), Adam Dunn (Diamondbacks), and maybe Carlos Delgado (Mets).  If, say, the Mariners re-sign Ibanez, the cost is his new contract as well as the two draft picks they could’ve had.

Several high-salary solid players probably will not be offered arbitration and therefore won’t land draft picks for the losing team: Ivan Rodriguez (Yankees), Bobby Abreu (Yankees), Garret Anderson (Angels), Ken Griffey Jr. (White Sox), and Jason Giambi (Yankees).   Hard to say how things will unfold with Brian Giles, who is a borderline Type A if the Padres decline his option.  The Yankees won’t want to risk being stuck with Rodriguez, Abreu, or Giambi at their ’07 salaries or higher, so they probably won’t offer arbitration.

Eddie Bajek, who runs the blog Detroit Tigers Thoughts, has come tantalizingly close to cracking the code behind the Elias Sports Bureau ranking system.  Every year, Elias puts every player into one of five groups and ranks them based on various stats.  Players are classified as Type A, Type B, or nothing, and this determines free agent compensation.

Eddie has been working to reverse-engineer the formula based on the information we have.  His last hurdle is the adjustment for time spent on the disabled list.  Apparently stats can be restored for up to 60 days of missed playing time, according to Keith Law.

If you are able to provide info on the DL adjustment, please email me or Eddie.  A dream of mine: real-time Elias rankings available for all.  I wonder if a player ever lost Type A status on the last day of the season?

Here's an explanation of how free agent compensation works in baseball.

Teams can choose to offer arbitration to their free agents after each season. If the player accepts, the team will get the player on a one-year deal at a figure determined by the arbitration process. Typically, players who accept arbitration get raises. If a player rejects arbitration, his former team gets nothing but compensation picks. 

A player can either be classified as Type A, Type B, or nothing based on his stats from the previous two seasons in certain categories, depending on his position. For example, first basemen, outfielders and DHs are rated based on the following categories: plate appearances, average, on base percentage, homers, and RBI. 

If a team signs a Type A free agent, they have to surrender a top pick to that player’s former team. If the signing team placed in the bottom half of MLB teams, their draft pick is protected and they surrender a second-round pick instead. 

Sometimes, teams sign more than one Type A free agent. In that case, one team gets a top compensation pick and other teams lose out. The team losing the highest-ranked free agent obtains the best pick the signing team can offer and other teams fall in line behind the team that loses the top-ranked player.

Regardless of where Type A free agents sign, their teams obtain a supplementary round pick in the following year’s draft (plus a pick from the team that signed the player).

A free agent can also be classified as a Type B based on his stats. Teams don’t have to give picks up to sign Type B free agents, but teams that lose Type Bs obtain supplementary round picks in the next year’s draft. 

Another rule to consider for Type As and Type Bs: the "losing" team can receive draft pick compensation without offering arbitration if their free agent signs before December 1st.   

There’s also a third possibility – the free agent is not classified as Type A or B, and there is no draft pick compensation.

Over the years, many quality players have been drafted as the result of free agent compensation.  Recent examples include Huston Street, Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Joba Chamberlain, Colby Rasmus, and Ian Kennedy.

I owe most of my understanding of free agent compensation to ESPN's Keith Law.  Check out his blog post on the topic from '06 as well as an MLBTR post about the ranking formulas based on info provided by Keith.

Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post.

In a November ’06 blog entry, ESPN’s Keith Law revealed a lot of good info about how Elias determines whether a free agent is Type A, Type B, or neither.

Keith was kind enough to reveal some additional info to me.  This will help us immensely in trying to guess types before they come out.  Everyone thank him and read his stuff at ESPN.

First let’s start with the positions Elias uses.  All players (not just free agents) are put into one of five groups as seen below.  Position is designated as the position at which the player appeared the most over the last two seasons.

• Group 1: first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters
• Group 2: second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops
• Group 3: catchers
• Group 4: starters
• Group 5: relievers

Here are the stat categories used for each of the five position groups.

• 1B/OF/DH: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI
• 2B/3B/SS: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Total chances at designated position
• C: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Assists
• SP: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances), IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, Strikeouts
• RP: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts), IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB, ERA

That is our starting point; I need to somehow get all players into the right position groups while listing all the appropriate stats for the 2006-07 seasons.  Then we can worry about adjusting for time spent on the DL and normalizing it to make 100 the top score for each position.  If anyone has all of this data in a spreadsheet and wants to help, drop me a line.