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White Sox, Astros, Rangers Considered Front-Runners For Abreu

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Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu's name continues to generate buzz. The latest, courtesy of ESPN's Buster Olney, is that the Rangers, White Sox and Astros have emerged as the front-runners to sign the 26-year-old, and his price tag is expected to be around $70MM (Twitter link).

In yesterday's free agent profile of Abreu, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicted that a six-year, $54MM contract would be required to sign him. Previous reports have indicated that he could cost as much as $60MM, but Olney's report pegs him significantly higher. Such a commitment would shatter the four-year, $36MM contract signed by Yoenis Cespedes and the seven-year, $42MM contract signed by Yasiel Puig. The success of that pairing could be a contributing factor to Abreu's lofty price tag.

As Tim noted in Abreu's profile, Abreu is viewed by many as an "all bat" player, with his first base defense being somewhat questionable. As such, it makes sense that three American League teams are seen as the favorites; each would have the luxury of giving him some at-bats at DH to mitigate that potential weakness.

In addition to Texas, Chicago and Houston, the Marlins are expected to be big players for Abreu. Earlier in the month, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reported that the Fish are "all-in" on trying to sign Abreu, who, along with Jose Fernandez, would give Miami an appealing Cuban pairing to market to their fanbase.

Astros Payroll Could Reach $60MM In 2014

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Last week, Astros owner Jim Crane indicated that the club's payroll could go up in 2014 but declined to say how much it could increase.  This week, Crane said that the payroll could climb as high as $50-60MM, regardless of how their lawsuit with Houston Regional Sports Network over their TV contract plays out, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.

In fact, if there is a favorable resolution to the dispute, Crane says that the team could go "a little bit deeper."  While that could mean that the Astros will have $30MM to spend on a handful of players, no one should expect Houston to go after the top tier guys on the open market.

“We’re not going to make a move unless it fits into the plan, and we’re not going to rush the plan. [General Manager Jeff Luhnow has] a very systematic formula and we do have some good players coming up. You add three or four key positions and bring in a couple of guys that are ready, this team is pretty competitive pretty quickly with the starting pitching we’ve got. We’re deep in pitching," Crane said.

The Astros will likely be in the market for late-inning relief help, an outfielder with a big bat, and a veteran starting pitcher in place of free agent Erik Bedard.  While a $60MM payroll would still place them among the lowest in the league, it would be a marked improvement over their 2013 Opening Day figure of $26.1MM.  Last week, I looked at the Astros' needs and potential offseason targets as a part of MLBTR's Offseason Outlook series.

Texas Notes: Rangers, Astros, Cruz, Luhnow

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Here's a look at the latest on the Rangers and Astros..

  • Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com attempts to tackle the Rangers' Nelson Cruz dilemma. Ultimately, Durrett concludes that as long as the price is right, it makes sense for Texas to bring Cruz back despite his PED suspension this past season.  If Cruz really wants to stay in Arlington, however, he may have to consider taking a two-year deal.
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow and assistant GM David Stearns are in Florida with the team's pro scouting staff to begin their planning for the free agent market, according to Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle (on Twitter). Recently, I looked at the winter ahead for Houston and their many needs.
  • The Astros have agreed to hire Cardinals Minor League pitching instructor Brent Strom to be their next pitching coach, a source told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.

Minor Moves: Brian Omogrosso, Matt Pagnozzi

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Here are Sunday's minor moves from around MLB:

  • Right-hander Brian Omogrosso has elected free agency after being outrighted off the White Sox's 40-man roster, according to the International League's transactions page. The 29-year-old made his MLB debut in 2012 with the White Sox pitching to a 2.57 ERA, 7.7 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9 in 17 appearances out of the bullpen covering 21 innings. Omogrosso regressed this past season with a 9.37 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 5.0 BB/9 in 16 1/3 innings over 12 games.
  • Catcher Matt Pagnozzi chose to become a free agent after he was outrighted to Triple-A by the Astros, per the Pacific Coast League's transaction page. Pagnozzi, who was acquired from the Braves last month, was removed from the Astros' 40-man roster after managing just three hits in 22 plate appearances since the trade. The 30-year-old has a career slash line of .272/.323/.326 in 105 plate appearances across parts of four seasons with the Astros, Pirates, Rockies, and Cardinals.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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After turning in three consecutive 100-loss seasons, the Astros will look to take a few steps forward this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players

Free Agents

The Astros haven't been to the postseason in eight years and, barring something unforeseen, that streak won't be snapped in 2014.  However, one has to imagine the Astros will feel compelled to field a team that is markedly more competitive than this year's lineup.  To call the 2013 roster bare bones would be an understatement.  The Astros opened the season with a payroll of $26.1MM, and after Bud Norris was traded in July, Erik Bedard stood as their highest paid player with a salary of $1.15MM.  Insert your own fun numbers crunch here, but here's the one we'll go with: Alex Rodriguez individually outearned the entire Astros roster in 2013 and Bedard's salary would make him the 23rd highest-paid player on the Yankees.

That should change a bit in 2014 as owner Jim Crane, who watched his club drop their final 15 games of the season, says he's impressed by the progress made by some of the club's top prospects and ready to spend to address some of the team's needs.  One area that needs attention is power, as Houston finished near the bottom of the league in slugging percentage at .375.  They could look to plug someone with pop in right field alongside Robbie Grossman in left field and George Springer in center field.  Springer, the 11th overall pick in the 2011 Draft, had an outstanding year in the minors with a .303/.411/.600 slash line and 37 homers in 135 combined Double-A and Triple-A games.  Scouts have always spoken highly of his defensive play, so he shouldn't have too much trouble in the field.  They'll have a number of young outfielders jostling for big league roster spots in camp, including L.J. Hoes, but a proven commodity is badly needed.

Houston may also go for an upgrade at designated hitter or first base.  Chris Carter and Brett Wallace project to fill those roles again but it wouldn't hurt to add someone else to the mix who can help with the Astros' power outage.  On the opposite side of the diamond, they're comfortable with Matt Dominguez and his defense, but they'll keep their fingers crossed for an uptick in offensive production.  That's not to say that he didn't deliver at the plate, however – his 21 homers were a welcome surprise in Houston.

Even though the purse strings should be loosened somewhat, the Astros still aren't expected to make a serious play for any of the winter's top free agents.  A big bat like Shin-Soo Choo (.285/.423/.462 slash line in 2013) would be a major boost, but with a price tag that could exceed $100MM, there is virtually no chance of Houston biting.  While the Astros have promising young players in the mix, they're nowhere near ready to contend, which means big checks won't be written this year.

The Astros have several areas to address, but last month General Manager Jeff Luhnow said the bullpen will be a top priority.  Houston's young relievers posted a combined 4.92 ERA in 2013, beating out the Mariners for the worst in the majors by a good margin.  The Astros will comb the open market for stronger eighth and ninth inning options while looking for improved performances from rookies Chia-Jen Lo, Josh Zeid, Kevin Chapman, and Rule 5 pickup Josh Fields.  University of Houston product Jesse Crain would be one interesting option who could be a valuable trade chip over the summer.  Ryan Madson and Joel Hanrahan will also be available and, if healthy, they could be convinced to take a relatiely low-base, incentive-laden deal with Houston if given the opportunity to show their stuff in the final inning.

Bedard had a decent year for the Astros (4.59 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9) and even picked up trade interest over the summer, but he may wind up signing elsewhere this winter.  With an extremely young group of starting pitchers, Houston will probably look to find a veteran pitcher who can offer the same kind of savvy, leadership, and stability as Bedard did in 2013 if they don't re-sign him.  Chad Gaudin and Tim Stauffer will be out there if Houston feels compelled to bring in a new elder statesman for the starting five.  Beyond that, they'll bank on a much better season from Lucas Harrell and an added boost from right-hander Asher Wojciechowski, who turned in a 3.32 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Oklahoma City this season.

Internally, the Astros could look to care of in-house talent Jason Castro.  The catcher enjoyed a breakout season in 2013, slashlng .276/.350/.485 and cementing himself as one of the more promising young backstops in the game.  This week, Tim Dierkes suggested that the Astros could look into a team-friendly extension for the 26-year-old and noted that three catchers in his service class signed three-year deals in the $8-9MM range.  Two of those deals, however, were signed in 2010.

Ultimately, success for the 2014 Astros won't be measured entirely by wins and losses, but another 100-loss season won't be acceptable by any measure.  If the Astros can pull themselves out of the cellar and see even more progress from guys like Castro, they'll be in a stronger position next fall and one year closer to making some noise.  

International Notes: Jose Abreu, Bryan De La Cruz

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Here's the latest from the international prospect market…

  • "Every team had someone" present at Jose Abreu's showcases on Monday and Tuesday, Baseball America's Ben Badler reports, but the Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Marlins and Giants had the largest presences.  Badler reported a few days ago that the Rangers could be the favorites to sign Abreu, with the Red Sox, White Sox, Pirates and Nationals also strong contenders.
  • The Giants were known to be interested in Abreu and they sent "an especially large crew" to his showcase that included GM Brian Sabeau, Felipe Alou and Pat Burrell.  Badler finds this curious given that the Giants already have Brandon Belt, but he speculates that San Francisco could sign Abreu and then move Belt to left field to possibly shop him in a trade.
  • As for the showcase itself, Badler said Abreu "didn’t seem to hurt his stock" as a right-handed hitting power bat.  Abreu took a few grounders at third base though that may have just been as a test of arm strength, as Badler writes that Abreu is "almost certain to sign as a first baseman."
  • The Astros have signed 16-year-old Bryan de la Cruz to a contract with a $170K bonus, Ben Badler reports.  A 6'2", 175-pound outfielder from the Dominican Republic, de la Cruz has "good tools" and has shown "power potential" from the right side of the plate.  De la Cruz is the ninth player signed by Houston since the international signing period opened on July 2.

Indians Notes: Giambi, Cabrera, Kazmir, Smith, Cloyd

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The Indians' magical season came to end at the hands of Alex Cobb and the Rays last night, as the Tribe fell 4-0 in the American League Wild Card game. Here's the latest on the Indians, whose focus will now shift to the offseason…

  • Jason Giambi told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he would like to play one more season, making an even 20 for his career (Twitter link). The Giambino hit just .183/.282/.371 in 216 plate appearances this season, but he did belt nine homers, including a dramatic pair of walk-off shots, the latter of which has to be considered one of the highlights of the season for the team.
  • General manager Chris Antonetti brought the team to the playoffs by making bold moves and should continue to be bold by trading Asdrubal Cabrera this winter, opines Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The Indians are set to lose Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir to free agency, and Pluto writes that some pitching depth could be added if Antonetti can strike a deal with a team like the Cardinals. Mike Aviles is capable of bridging the gap between the declining Cabrera and top prospect Francisco Lindor, writes Pluto.
  • Kazmir and right-hander Joe Smith both told reporters, including MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, that they hope to return to the Indians in 2014 (Twitter links). Kazmir added that he hopes to pick up where he left off in 2013, and Smith stated, "I don't want that to be my last game."
  • Twenty-four teams passed on Phillies right-hander Tyler Cloyd before the Indians claimed him off waivers yesterday, writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. That Cloyd was waived despite having two options left shows that the team was never particularly enamored with him, adds Gelb. Cloyd was part of the proposed package for Astros reliever Wilton Lopez last offseason before the Phils backed off due to concerns over Lopez's elbow.

Arbitration Eligibles: Houston Astros

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Astros are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Castro, the tenth overall pick in 2008, put together a breakout campaign this year with 18 home runs, a .350 on-base percentage, and an All-Star nod.  The Astros could look into a team-friendly extension.  Three catchers in Castro's service class have signed three-year deals in the $8-9MM range, though two of them were in 2010.

Crowe, drafted 14th overall by the Indians in '05, signed a minor league deal with the Astros last November.  His contract was purchased in May, but he missed over two months with a shoulder injury.  The 29-year-old outfielder did not impress with the bat, and he received regular playing time with 103 plate appearances in September.  In mid-September, Crowe told Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune, "I want to be back next year. I think I'll be back, but we'll see it goes."  While Crowe is a candidate to be non-tendered, he could re-sign on a minor league deal if that happens.

Astros Claim Raul Valdes, Decline Humber’s Option

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The Astros have issued a press release announcing that they have claimed left-hander Raul Valdes off waivers from the Phillies and declined their 2014 club option for right-hander Philip Humber. Humber is one of four players that has been outrighted off the team's 40-man roster; the others are infielder Brandon Laird and catchers Cody Clark and Matt Pagnozzi. Perhaps more noteworthy is the fact that top prospect Jonathan Singleton has been added to the team's 40-man roster to fill one of the new vacancies.

Valdes, 35, posted an alarming 7.46 ERA in 35 innings for the Phillies this season, but his peripheral numbers suggest that he was far better than that unsightly number. Valdes averaged 9.5 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings, leading advanced metrics like FIP (4.39), xFIP (3.74) and SIERA (3.10) to project better days on the horizon. He also held opposing lefties to a .229/.275/.375 line.

Houston held a $3MM option on Humber, but declining it proved to be an easy decision. The former No. 3 overall pick turned in a 7.90 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 54 2/3 innings for the Astros this season after signing for just $800K last offseason. Humber was designated for assignment in May and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Oklahoma City, where posted a 4.68 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.

Laird hit .169/.224/.423 with five homers in 76 plate appearances for the Astros in 2013. Pagnozzi, who was acquired from the Braves at the beginning of September, went 3-for-21 in 22 plate appearances for the Astros in the season's final month. The 32-year-old Clark, a career minor leaguer, reached the Majors at last in 2013 and recorded his first big league hit with the Astros. Clark went 4-for-38 with Houston and hit .212/.250/.265 in 46 minor league contests this season.

AL West Notes: Rangers, McCann, Cruz, Angels, Astros

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The Rangers' season came to an end last night after a 5-2 loss to the Rays in Game 163, shifting the team's focus to the upcoming offseason. General manager Jon Daniels told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports last night that there's "no question" Ron Washington will be the manager of next season's team (Twitter link). Here's more on the Rangers and the rest of the AL West…

  • Danny Knobler of CBS Sports writes that the Rangers will likely target Brian McCann in free agency this offseason, as they've attempted to acquire him via trade multiple times and have had scouts following him closely.  That fits with Tim Dierkes' thoughts from McCann's recent free agent profile here at MLBTR.
  • Nelson Cruz wants to be back with the Rangers in 2014, he told reporters, including Michael Florek of the Dallas Morning News. Cruz called the ovation he received in his first at-bat last night "special" and said he feels he's dealt with his mistakes and is ready to move on.
  • Both A.J. Pierzynski and Geovany Soto would like to return to the Rangers, writes Todd Wills of ESPNDallas.com. However, the team's potential pursuit of McCann could take precedence. Durrett also notes that Washington would love to have Joe Nathan back to close games for him in 2014. Nathan can void his option and is likely to seek a multiyear deal. Wills also notes that Washington would welcome Cruz back to the team as well. "Who wouldn't want Nelson Cruz?" asked Washington.
  • Some within the Angels camp expect both manager Mike Scioscia and GM Jerry Dipoto to return in 2014, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. There have been rumors that one of the two is headed out the door.
  • With a young core now taking shape, Astros owner Jim Crane tells MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that the payroll will increase in 2014 and the team will look to add some free agents into the mix. Crane specifically mentions a power bat, help for the back of the rotation and bullpen arms as areas of need.
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