2013 Contract Issues: Houston Astros
The Astros are next in MLBTR’s 2013 Contract Issues series:
Eligible For Free Agency (2)
- Carlos Lee – Lee appears to want to stay in Houston and the Astros will need a designated hitter next year when they move to the American League West. If he's willing to re-sign for a tenth of his 2012 salary ($18MM) maybe the Astros will be interested.
- Brandon Lyon – Lyon's hot start makes him a midseason trade candidate who could be gone before the offseason begins. Neither Lyon nor Lee should expect a qualifying offer from Houston next offseason.
Contract Options (2)
- Brett Myers: $10MM club option with a $3MM buyout. Option vests with approximately 55 games finished. A $7MM net cost might be a luxury for a rebuilding team, even though Myers could probably help Houston in 2013. He's another midseason trade candidate to keep an eye on.
- Chris Snyder: $4MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. Mutual options are rarely exercised by both sides. They sometimes exist to defer salary from one season to the next.
Arbitration Eligible (7)
- First time: Wilton Lopez, Wesley Wright, Bud Norris, Chris Johnson
- Second time: J.A. Happ, Jed Lowrie, Travis Buck
The Astros will face a relatively affordable class of arbitration eligible players. Happ ($2.35MM in '12), Lowrie ($1.15MM) and Buck ($580K) will obtain raises but will remain affordable. Lopez and Wright, two non-closing relievers, both figure to cost the Astros $1MM or so next year. I think Norris could earn $3.5-4MM via arbitration as a first-time eligible player if his strong season continues. There's a good chance the Astros' eligible players will return for a total of $15MM or less in 2013.
2013 Payroll Obligation
The Astros are spending approximately $61MM on payroll in 2012, their first season under owner Jim Crane and GM Jeff Luhnow. They only have $17MM in commitments for 2013, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Expect Luhnow to have more payroll flexibility than he did last offseason when he transitions the team to the American League next winter.
NL Central Notes: Rizzo, Pirates, Appel, Cardinals
The Cardinals snapped a four-game losing streak with a 7-6 win over the Cubs this afternoon. Yadier Molina was the hero for St. Louis, delivering a walkoff RBI single to cinch the victory. Here's the latest from around the NL Central…
- Theo Epstein was hesitant to make the trade that brought Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs since Epstein didn't want to give up Andrew Cashner, reports Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago. It was Cubs GM Jed Hoyer who "aggressively pushed" for the deal. Levine covers a number of different Cubs (and White Sox) topics in this online chat with readers.
- The Pirates aren't likely to make a trade to address their hitting problems, GM Neal Huntington told reporters (including Karen Price of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). “There are very, very few trades of substance made in May and there are few trades of substance made in June, so our solutions are going to have to come internally unless we’re willing to be less than intelligent and dramatically overpay. That’s just the way it is," Huntington said. “We’re certainly looking externally, but the extra wild card has made it that much more of a challenge. There are fewer sellers out there, and we’re going to have to be creative.”
- ESPN's Keith Law (Insider subscription required) has released his first 2012 mock draft and he projects the Astros to take Stanford right-hander Mark Appel with the first overall pick. "The general feeling is that they'll take the college arm over the higher-upside, higher-risk outfielder, Byron Buxton," Law writes, though he notes that Houston's decision could also be determined by which player is willing to sign for the lowest price beneath the $7.2MM slot figure for the first pick.
- Carlos Beltran and Rafael Furcal's hot starts have fueled the Cardinals' big offensive numbers, writes Scott Miller for CBS Sports.
Rosenthal On Braves, Dempster, Rizzo, Astros
One scout told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the work of the Braves’ hitting instructors and the performance of Kris Medlen has made the difference for the team so far in 2012. Atlanta GM Frank Wren agrees with that assessment, according to Rosenthal, who offers notes and rumors from around the league in his latest column:
- The Cubs are more likely to trade Ryan Dempster if they sign Matt Garza to an extension. However, Dempster’s ten and five rights allow him to veto any trade, so he’ll have leverage if the Cubs look to make a move. It doesn’t seem likely that Dempster will sign a below-market extension to stay in Chicago, Rosenthal writes.
- The Cubs don’t have immediate plans to call up Anthony Rizzo, who figures to stay in the minor leagues until an opening emerges.
- Releasing Alfonso Soriano doesn’t appear to be an option; the outfielder has approximately $50MM remaining on his contract with the Cubs.
- General managers criticize the collective bargaining agreement, Rosenthal reports. Some low-revenue teams dislike spending restrictions on the draft, since they feel the limitations will drive up the price of MLB talent.
- Chien-Ming Wang, who is now rehabbing at Triple-A, could be valuable insurance for the Nationals, since they’ve decided to cap Stephen Strasburg’s innings.
- Brett Myers’ 2013 option likely vests with approximately 55 games finished, Rosenthal suggests. The right-hander will obtain a $500K bonus if the Astros trade him.
- One scout says Blue Jays catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud looks like Russell Martin did with the Dodgers.
Heyman On Myers, Lee, Wright, Rangers
The latest notes and rumors from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:
- Astros people say they aren't thinking about trading their veteran players at this point, according to Heyman. One non-Astros executive likes Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers as midsummer trade candidates.
- However, the executive said it won't be easy to move Carlos Lee and his $18MM salary. Lee can block trades to 14 teams and badly wants to stay in Houston. A possible trade to the Brewers fell through months ago, Heyman reports.
- High-level Mets people such as COO Jeff Wilpon generally support David Wright, Heyman reports. The Mets won't trade Wright this summer and will try to lock him up before long, Heyman writes. It would take something "extraordinary'' for Wright to be traded this year, GM Sandy Alderson confirmed to Heyman. If the Mets were to trade Wright this summer, he would obtain the right to void a $16MM club option for 2013 and become a free agent this offseason. Mets people view Wright as a more reliable player than Jose Reyes, Heyman writes.
- Heyman also points out that Josh Hamilton's performance is going to make re-signing him that much more complex for the Rangers.
Luhnow On Astros’ Trade Candidates
The 13-15 Astros have scored more runs than they’ve allowed so far this season, but they’re still expected to be sellers at the summer trade deadline. GM Jeff Luhnow acknowledged to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he'll consider trades that add talent to the organization.
“If we have pieces on our club that are in demand by other clubs and we get enough future value for them to make up for the short-term loss, we’ll consider every opportunity,” Luhnow told Rosenthal.
The GM expects rival teams to have interest in some of his players late this summer. Left-hander Wandy Rodriguez, closer Brett Myers, first baseman Carlos Lee and reliever Brandon Lyon are playing well, but Luhnow said he’s not actively looking to make trades yet.
“We need those guys right now,” Luhnow said. “I’m not in any rush to have any conversations about our veteran players.”
Rodriguez, Myers and Lee have $10MM or more remaining on their contracts and relative to other middle relievers, Lyon’s $5.5MM salary is hardly a bargain. The Astros would presumably need to absorb a considerable percentage of their veteran players’ contracts to obtain highly-regarded prospects in trades.
Cafardo On Broxton, Phillies, Span, Orioles, White Sox
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that Mariano Rivera is arguably the most important player in the American League East. The Yankees will look to in-house solutions in the back of their bullpen for now, but other teams in need of relievers will start combing the market for answers. The Cubs would obviously part with Carlos Marmol. The Pirates could move Joel Hanrahan, but the price would be steep. The White Sox might trade left-hander Matt Thornton and the Astros could be willing to deal Brett Myers.
Teams are looking to see whether the Mets would deal Bobby Parnell and whether the Royals move Jonathan Broxton. Kansas City, however, would need to receive his permission since he was signed as a free agent and otherwise couldn’t be moved until after June 15th. Here's more from Cafardo..
- Phillies people insist that they are not on the lookout for a third baseman/left fielder with Placido Polanco struggling. "We’re just trying to hold our heads above water until we get our guys back," a Phillies official told Cafardo.
- Twins center fielder Denard Span remains on the Nationals' radar, but with closer Drew Storen sidelined, a deal is on hold for a while.
- According to an Orioles source, they have received calls on Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom. The O's would love to move part of Gregg's $5.8MM deal for 2012. Lindstrom, meanwhile, will earn $3.6MM with a $4MM option for 2013.
- The Astros will hang on to Wandy Rodriguez until late July when they can get the best possible deal for him.
- Even though White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski is reaching the end of his contract and is 35, don’t be surprised if the club talks about keeping him for another year or two. Many in Chicago feel the mantle will be passed to Tyler Flowers, but Jerry Reinsdorf is very loyal to his veteran players.
- First baseman Derrek Lee is definitely on the Brewers’ radar with Mat Gamel out for the season. They’re thinking about moving Corey Hart from right field to first, but there may be outside options. The Red Sox’s Lars Anderson and the Orioles’ Mark Reynolds could be two names to consider.
- The Red Sox expect to have Andrew Bailey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Kevin Youkilis, and Daisuke Matsuzaka back at some point this summer. General Manager Ben Cherington believes, "that would be better than anything we could do in a trade deadline deal."
Stark On Rays, Giants, Phillies, Ethier, Nationals
In today's column, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com put together his "All-Most-Immovable team" with help from front office executives from around the league. Predictable names such as Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano, and Barry Zito are on the list, but Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder also made the cut. Pujols wouldn't be a tough sell because of his slow start, according to one AL exec, but rather because of the money due to the slugger on the back end of the deal. Here's more from Stark..
- If the Rays and Giants shop for third basemen to replace Evan Longoria and Pablo Sandoval, they might not find many viable options. The only potentially available names Stark has heard are the Orioles' Mark Reynolds and the Twins' Danny Valencia. One exec said that the Rays are more likely to go after someone with versatility that they can slide into a different spot upon Longoria's return.
- The Phillies are also looking for a young third baseman and the club is working to put together a list of potential replacements for impending free agent Placido Polanco.
- While some execs say that they would be wary of giving Andre Ethier a sizable deal for fear that he is in salary-drive mode, others think that the Dodgers have no other choice. The cost of finding another right field, middle of the order bat will likely be just as high and alternatives such as Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher or Torii Hunter don't appear to be more trustworthy.
- A number of clubs are bearing down on the Astros, but reviews are mixed on Wandy Rodriguez thanks in large part to his contract. The pitcher will earn $10MM this year, $13MM in 2013, and can be bought out of his $13MM club option for 2014 with a $2.5MM payment.
- If Bryce Harper and Tyler Moore continue to look sharp, the Nationals might not be in the market for a center fielder.
- Stark asked a few executives if they'd roll the dice on Delmon Young as a relative free agent bargain next winter and the typical response was that they would not. Young avoided arbitration with the Tigers this winter by agreeing to a one-year, $6.75MM deal.
Cafardo On Balfour, Hanrahan, Angels, Twins, Myers
Older ballplayers are showing a lot of life so far this season, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Veterans Paul Konerko, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, and Jamie Moyer have all looked sharp in the month of April. Ortiz lost 25 pounds to get himself into shape for this season and plans to keep up the hard work as he hopes to play for another two seasons. Here's more from Cafardo..
- The Angels have inquired on A’s pitcher Grant Balfour and he is becoming one of the more sought-after bullpen pieces. The Halos have also shown interest in Joel Hanrahan of the Pirates and the Mariners' Brandon League, but Balfour seems the most logical.
- If the Twins don’t turn things around by the trade deadline, Carl Pavano will be a highly sought-after pitcher. The right-hander is earning $8.5MM in the final year of his contract and has limited no-trade protection. Jason Marquis, Matt Capps, and Francisco Liriano could also be used as chips to land prospects.
- Teams probably have their eye on Astros right-hander Brett Myers. Many teams, such as the Angels and Red Sox, could use the 31-year-old’s arm right now. He has also shown that he can pitch in a big market with his time in Philadelphia.
- If Tigers outfielder Delmon Young is convicted of a hate crime, it will be interesting to see whether the the club void his contract. They would be within their rights to do so under the collective bargaining agreement. The 26-year-old earns $6.75MM this year and can become a free agent after the season.
- The A's are a good bet to land Brandon Inge.
- Most baseball people feel there’s no way the Red Sox let Aaron Cook hit the open market by not calling him up May 1. The 33-year-old will earn the prorated portion of $1.5MM if he is called up to the majors.
2013 Vesting Options Update
As the calendar gets ready to flip over to May, let's check in on the players who have vesting options for the 2013 season…
- Jason Bartlett, Padres – $5.5MM option vests with 432 plate appearances. Bartlett currently has 61 PA and has come to the plate at least 432 times in each of the last five seasons.
- Alex Gonzalez, Brewers – $4MM option vests with 525 PA. Gonzalez has 66 PA at the moment and has eclipsed 525 PA in both 2010 and 2011.
- Kevin Gregg, Orioles – $6MM option vest with 50 games finished. Gregg has finished three games this season but is a release candidate given his poor performance (7.94 ERA).
- Brett Myers, Astros – $10MM option vests based on unknown starting or relieving milestones.
Chipper Jones has an option worth $9MM+ that will vest with 123 games played, but he's already rendered the option moot by announcing his plans to retire after the season. Chipper has played in a dozen of the Braves' first 20 games.
Trade Candidate: Brett Myers
The Brett Myers trade rumors have been circulating for a while, and there’s no reason to expect them to slow down between now and the July 31st trade deadline. Myers, a capable pitcher nearing free agency on a team not expected to contend, should draw some trade interest this summer.
Myers' name surfaced at the 2011 Winter Meetings and the right-hander still seemed to be available in January, when Jayson Stark reported that the Astros were willing to take on at least $7MM of his 2012 salary in a trade. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said this month that he’s not presently shopping Myers, and while that’s entirely believable, the team's stance could very well change within the next 95 days.
Myers, 31, probably won’t be on the next contending Astros team. He’s earning $12MM in 2012 and has a club/vesting option valued at $10MM for 2013 ($3MM buyout). Like most players on the Astros’ roster, Myers is a product of the Ed Wade regime. I doubt Luhnow will have reservations about trading Myers when the time is right.
Unfortunately for the Astros, Myers earns a starting pitcher’s salary. Other trade candidates such as Huston Street ($7.5MM) and Grant Balfour ($4MM) will be more appealing to contenders since they earn considerably less than Myers. I expect the Astros will have to take on millions to move Myers.
For the Astros to convince a rival team to take on more than a couple million of Myers’ salary, he’ll have to continue pitching well. So far — and it’s admittedly quite early — Myers has pitched five innings with a 4K/1BB ratio and three saves. It’s worth noting that his fastball velocity has climbed by nearly 4 mph this year to 92.2 mph from 88.4 mph (source: FanGraphs). He's just 74 pitches into the season — not even a full start’s worth — but the uptick in velocity isn’t surprising given Myers’ new role.
Should the 7-12 Astros fall out of contention early, Luhnow might have the chance to start selling before other trade candidates become available. This could enable him to send more of Myers' salary to a team looking to acquire relief help before the trade market heats up in July. Still, it seems more likely that the Astros will postpone most serious trade talk until after they select first overall in the upcoming June draft. There's also a good chance Myers' salary would clear waivers, so he might be available in August.
Myers should draw interest from contenders, especially if his strong April portends a successful first half. But it seems likely that the Astros will have to take on millions to complete a deal. Depending on Myers' performance, the evolution of the trade market and Luhnow's willingness to absorb salary, the Astros could acquire anything from a marginal minor leaguer to a legitimate prospect for their closer.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.