Astros Could Pursue Zito
For months (seems like years) both New York teams have been claiming ownership of Barry Zito. We know that he kind of likes the city and won’t re-sign with Oakland. Both the Mets and Yankees sorely need a dependable #2 like Zito.
But Ken Rosenthal reminded us recently that the Astros will have a ton of free cash after 2006 for a player like Zito. Jeff Bagwell and Andy Pettitte make a combined $34.5MM this year, and there’s little chance Roger Clemens is still around. That will leave a lot of money and a huge void in the starting rotation behind Roy Oswalt. Zito’s estimated worth according to Baseball Prospectus for 2007-2010? Just $22MM. Not that the Yankees care.
If Houston doesn’t snag Zito, I see them signing or trading for Jose Contreras, Jason Schmidt, Kerry Wood, Kelvim Escobar, Adam Eaton, Mark Mulder, or Doug Davis instead. Wood, of course, is from Irving, Texas – but does that really matter? A topic for another time: with the impending free agency of Davis and Carlos Lee, should the Brewers go for broke in 2006?
Gammons: Astros Expect Clemens Back
Peter Gammons’s inside info on Roger Clemens in this morning’s blog has received surprisingly little press. His stance:
"…Unless owner Drayton McLane kills this (yeah, right), the Astros expect Clemens to sign on May 1, work out with Koby’s minor-league team, and make his first start June 2 against the Reds."
Our source pretty much had this pegged back in December. That means my 144 inning projection in my Fantasy Guide should hold up well; he’s still probably a top 25 starter in just two-thirds of a season.
What I don’t get is why Clemens needs to milk $15MM (or whatever) out of the Astros for the ’06 season. We all thought it was somewhat noble of him to "settle" for $5MM for his 2004 comeback. If he’d asked for twice that maybe Houston doesn’t go get Beltran and doesn’t end up in the NLCS.
But Roger pretty much ruined his goodwill when he decided to compensate for his 2004 gift by demanding an $18MM salary in 2005. If the Astros had acquired a decent hitter at the trading deadline, they would’ve at least put up more of a fight in the World Series. If Clemens keeps his demands unnecessarily high and Bagwell forces his way into the lineup, the Astros have absolutely no hope of acquiring reinforcements through trade.
And now to go off on a tangent. I’m all for guys like Gammons and Stark producing more content that’s presumably published more quickly. But is anyone reading these things? They should be called BINOs – Blogs In Name Only. Their subscriber wall is killing the spread of traffic that is supposed to be the hallmark of blogs. It doesn’t really matter given this problem, outlined by Aaron Gleeman:
"…As far as I can tell none of the dozen or so blogs ESPN.com hosts actually link to other blogs. For instance, Olney’s blog is made up primarily of links to outside stories and his brief comments on them, but in nearly a year I can’t remember a single link that wasn’t to a mainstream newspaper."
That comment helped garner Gleeman a one-time link from Jayson Stark’s blog, but it’s not becoming a regular occurence. I do like the conversational style seen in ESPN’s recent blogs, though Gammons and Stark kind of write informally in their columns anyway. But all griping aside, I still think ESPN’s subscription price is well worth forty bucks a year. No, they didn’t pay me to say that.
Source: Clemens To Return To Astros
A source out of Houston close to former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker tells me that Roger Clemens will return to pitch for the Astros after May 1st. The word is that Clemens has a handshake deal with Astros owner Drayton McLane to either return to the Astros or retire. My source says that Clemens will not choose retirement.
This report gels with an independent source who informed me in December that Clemens was choosing between Houston and retirement. Of course, Clemens was noncommital in yesterday’s conference call, mentioning that his mother had urged him to retire before she passed away.
Tejada Could Still Be Dealt By April
We thought the Miguel Tejada rumors had died down. He seemed fairly content, and said all the right things. However, Daily Herald columnist Barry Rozner has reignited the Miggy hot stove talk.
In Washington DC to cover the White Sox ceremony, Rozner ran into all sorts of DC media types. According to Rozner:
"They’re hearing the Orioles would love to move the unhappy Tejada out of Baltimore before the season even begins."
He adds that he expects Tejada to be moved before the season starts or right before the July trading deadline. As a refresher, MLBTradeRumors has reported that the Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, and Astros have all been involved in talks for Tejada this offseason.
New Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez can still be cut by March 15th, in which case Boston would owe him $500,000. The Cubs seem quite likely to give Ronny Cedeno his shot, though he’d probably be part of any package for Tejada.
The White Sox have previously offered Juan Uribe, Jose Contreras, and a prospect for Tejada, but the clubs could not agree on the last prospect. Recent word is that the team plans to wait until after the World Baseball Classic before trading Contreras. Houston has some top-notch pitching prospects in the fold, so look for them to re-enter the fray once the Clemens saga is resolved.
Red Sox To Pursue Clemens
The Boston Herald’s Gerry Callahan reported today that the Red Sox "as we speak are preparing to make a serious offer to one Roger Clemens." Not so coincidentally, it’s a slow news day, with the Phillies’ hot pursuit of the other Alex Gonzalez a top story.
Apparently the Red Sox know Clemens won’t be lured by money (he’s made over $120MM in salary in his career) so they are going a different route:
"The Sox’ pitch will include a slick video presentation that features a number of Red Sox fans imploring the Rocket to finish his career where it began. This is not a Theo idea or a Larry idea; it comes straight from chairman Tom Werner, the Hollywood producer who is making sure the Sox’ sales pitch is Oscar quality. They may not land the Rocket, but Werner is demanding they give it their best shot."
Do Boston fans really want Clemens back? I should put up a poll or something. Regardless, every source I’ve ever spoken to about this insists that Clemens’s options are the Astros and retirement. Roger’s personal catcher is there and the team is bending over backwards to accomodate him. As I said in December, an undeserved promotion of Koby Clemens to Double A might seal the deal. While Koby plays in the Astros’ farm system, his Class A team resides in New York.
KW Denies Abreu Rumor…Or Does He?
Respected Chicago Tribune sportswriter Mark Gonzales got in touch with Kenny Williams through a spokesman tonight. Based on this article, it seems that Gonzales inquired about the recent Abreu for Contreras/Dye rumor. The word:
"Williams, through a team spokesman, said there is nothing to the report, adding he hadn’t spoken to the Phillies in eight or nine days and that no proposal was tendered."
Now, we didn’t report that this thing was on the verge. My point, rather, was that the White Sox love Abreu. That was confirmed by my source; the actual Dye/Contreras scenario was reportedly broken by Howard Eskin of 610 AM in Philadelphia.
Given that Jermaine Dye is a capable, affordable right fielder, the White Sox aren’t desperate to upgrade right now. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the White Sox go after Abreu down the road. Kenny Williams didn’t seem to be denying interest in Abreu.
What about Jose Contreras? Word is that Houston is the top contender for his services. Nothing would happen either way until the Clemens situation shakes out, and Rosenthal expects him back. We reported the same back in December.
Trade Candidates Part 1
With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future. Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.
Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him. But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards. Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.
We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt. Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else. On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.
One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux. I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline. I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left. Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams. If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.
Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings. He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30. I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.
Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons. It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?
It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what. Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.
I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal. Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic. Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.
Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt. I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.
More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…
Huff Staying Put For Now
Apparently the Devil Rays have not found a deal they like for Aubrey Huff. He’s not going anywhere right now, and we can put the Houston rumor to rest. These things change quickly; that’s the latest on it.
Aubrey Huff To Houston?
Got a good one today. I admit I was skeptical at first, but an independent source verified the rumor.
It seems that Arizona, Houston, Los Angeles, and Tampa Bay have some sort of deal in the works. It is known that Jayson Werth and Aubrey Huff are involved, but the other players have not yet been revealed. Apparently Werth is headed to Tampa Bay or Arizona – my sources differ in opinion here.
Both sources indicated that Aubrey Huff will be joining the Astros. Such a move would certainly cloud up the Astros’ 1B/OF situation. They’d have Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell, Jason Lane, Willy Taveras, Preston Wilson, and Huff. We know that Bagwell may not be able to play, and Lane and Taveras are trade candidates. Huff mainly played right field and first base for the Devil Rays this year.
UPDATE: It now looks to be a three team deal with the Diamondbacks, Devil Rays, and Astros involved (Werth is out of the picture). Huff to the Astros is still the main piece, and the deal supposedly is contingent on Bagwell retiring and freeing up the insurance money. That’s all for now.
Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.