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Astros’ Deal With Justin Verlander Not Yet Official

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As of last night, the Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the MLBPA has expired and the league is officially in a lockout, meaning that no transactions will be permitted until a new CBA is ratified. This outcome had been widely anticipated throughout the industry, which is why there has been such a frenzy of deals in recent weeks, as many teams and players tried to cram in some of their offseason business before the lockout arrived.

One such deal that was reported a couple weeks ago was the Astros agreeing to re-sign Justin Verlander to a $50MM guarantee over two years, with an opt-out after 2022. However, Jon Heyman of MLB Network notes that the deal has not yet been announced and doesn’t seem to be official. Furthermore, the official MLB page for Houston’s 40-man roster doesn’t list Verlander’s name, nor does the signing appear on Verlander’s transaction tracker.

At this point, it’s unclear why the deal was not officially inked before the CBA expired and there’s no reason to suspect that it’s in any sort of jeopardy. However, it is at least noteworthy that it will apparently remain in a state of limbo as long as the lockout continues.

Verlander’s last full season was 2019, where he threw 223 innings, racking up 300 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.58, winning the AL Cy Young that year. However, Tommy John surgery put a halt to his 2020 after throwing just 6 innings and caused him to miss the 2021 season entirely. Shortly after the end of the season, the 38-year-old held a showcase to demonstrate that he was back to full strength and seemed to have succeeded in that regard, garnering robust interest in his services. About a week later, the reports of the deal with Houston emerged.

Front Office/Coaching Notes: Astros, Brewers, Padres, Reds

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Some recent front office and coaching moves around baseball…

  • Sara Goodrum, believed to be the first woman in Major League history to hold the role of minor league hitting coordinator, will leave the Brewers to become the Astros’ director of player development, according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy.  She’ll follow a pair of path-breaking women — Marlins GM Kim Ng and Orioles director of baseball development Eve Rosenbaum — who’ve been hired to prominent front office roles. While her elevation to her new role represents another in a series of major steps forward for women in Major League Baseball, Goodrum is also one of several other women employed by teams in coaching roles in recent years.
  • The Padres have hired longtime big-league catcher Francisco Cervelli as their new catching instructor.  The thirty-five-year-old Cervelli, who posted a solid .268/.358/.382 batting line across parts of thirteen seasons with the Yankees, Pirates, Braves, and Marlins, will take over for Rod Barajas. Barajas, also a former catcher, had been in the Padres organization since 2014, amassing a 1-7 record as interim Padres manager for the last eight games of 2019, following the firing of Andy Green.  A veteran of 13 big league seasons, Cervelli will now be overseeing a crowded catching situation in San Diego.  The Padres acquired backstop Jorge Alfaro from the Marlins Tuesday to supplement a group headed by incumbents Austin Nola and Victor Caratini.
  • The Reds announced a series of coaching changes Monday.  Former Astros farmhand Rolando Valles has been promoted from major league associate coach to major league assistant coach.  Kyle Arnsberg, the game-planning coach for Double-A Chattanooga, was also promoted to an assistant coach role on the MLB staff.  Former Vanderbilt infielder Joel McKeithan has been named a major league assistant hitting coach and offensive coordinator.  Bullpen catcher Nate Irving has taken over Arnsberg’s old role in Chattanooga, where he’ll also serve as the bench coach.

Outrights: Scrubb, de Geus, Martin, Anderson

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As a busy evening of contract tendering (and non-tendering) draws to a close, some players find themselves in a new position of being outrighted off their team’s 40-man roster. The following players cleared waivers and remain with one of their organization’s minor league affiliates:

  • Right-handed Astros reliever Andre Scrubb has been outrighted to Triple-A Sugar Land. Scrubb posted a shiny 1.90 ERA across 23 innings last season despite a huge 19.6% walk rate. His ERA regressed to 5.03 in a similar sample size of 19 innings, while his home run rate ballooned to nearly double the league average.
  • Arizona infielder Andrew Young and right-handed pitcher Brett de Geus  are ticketed for Double-A Amarillo and Triple-A Reno, respectively. Young demonstrated strong power numbers in limited action but struck out an untenable 43.3% of the time. The 24-year-old de Geus was a Rule 5 pick who was thrown into the fire by both the Rangers and Diamondbacks this season, but will return to the minors for additional seasoning after recently being designated for assignment.
  • Baltimore shortstop Richie Martin is headed to Triple-A Norfolk following a sub-replacement level season as an Oriole. The 26-year-old Martin has shown some offensive prowess at Double-A in the past, but for now he’ll look to establish himself as a plus hitter at Triple-A for the first time.
  • Blue Jays right-hander Shaun Anderson is on his way to Triple-A Buffalo after a busy season that saw him pitch for three big league teams, only to be claimed by Toronto in mid-November. Anderson didn’t have much go right in his 23 innings this year, but has consistently been capable of 3-something ERAs in the minor leagues as a starter or reliever.

Astros Sign Hector Neris

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The Astros have made an addition to their bullpen, announcing a two-year contract with reliever Hector Neris. The deal, which reportedly guarantees $17MM, also contains a 2024 option valued at $8.5MM ($1MM buyout). That’s currently a club option, but Neris can vest that provision into a player option in any of three ways: making at least 50 appearances in both 2022 and 2023, making 60 appearances in 2023 alone, or making a combined 110 appearances over the next two seasons. Neris is represented by Brian Mejia and Ulises Cabrera of Octagon Baseball.

The former Phillies’ closer was reportedly in high demand, despite being the face of a bullpen in Philadelphia that led the league in blown saves. Neris himself notched 12 saves and 11 holds, but also seven blown saves while tossing 74 1/3 innings across 74 games. He had a 3.63 ERA/4.08 FIP while pairing a strong 31.6 percent strikeout rate with a less-than-ideal 10.3 percent walk rate.

To his credit, Neris kept the ball on the ground more frequently than usual, logging a 48.9 percent groundball rate. The Phillies were hardly known for their infield defense, but that’s a positive sign nonetheless as he heads to Houston. In total, Neris was credited with 1.4 rWAR, a solid number for a reliever.

The 32-year-old has spent his entire eight-year career with the Phillies, totaling 405 appearances and a career 3.42 ERA/3.79 FIP. The Dominican right-hander was originally signed by the Phillies back in 2010 as an amateur free agent. Despite moving in and out of the closer role during his time in Philly, Neris was an overall positive contributor going back to 2015.

He’ll now embark on the next chapter of his career in Houston, where he steps in to assume Kendall Graveman’s late inning responsibilities. Graveman, acquired midseason from the Mariners, recently signed a three-year, $24MM deal. The Astros will pay Neris a half million more per season, but with only a two-year commitment, which tracks market-wise, given that Neris is two years older than Graveman.

Neris will team with fellow righties Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Pedro Baez, and Rafael Montero to try and bridge the gap from the starter to closer Ryan Pressly. If nothing else, the Astros can rest assured that Neris can handle the mental burden of pitching for an often-maligned franchise in Houston. Having spent so long in Philly, Neris should be used to hearing his share of criticism on the hill.

Neris leans heavily on a 84 mph split finger, which has long been the bell cow offering of his arsenal. He’s especially reliant on the split versus lefties, against whom he uses the split finger roughly 50 percent of the time. For comparison’s sake, he went to the split just 36.9 percent of the time against right-handers. For same-handed hitters, he leans heavily on a 94.1 mph four-seamer (43.9 percent usage rate) and a 94.8 mph sinker (31.1 percent usage rate).

He has also occasionally toyed with a slider against righties, which he threw just 44 times last year – only thrice to lefties – though the breaker wasn’t particularly effective for Neris. Against lefties, Neris throws the heater 37.3 percent of the time, while dialing back usage on his sinker. On the whole, the split finger has been his most effective pitch, producing a mere .152 expected batting average and .240 expected slugging. He finished 2021 in the 93rd percentile for both whiff rate and chase rate while finishing in the 91st percentile for strikeout rate.

Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia first reported the Astros were signing Neris to a two-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the $17MM guarantee. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported the presence of the 2024 option and its specific provisions.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Doug Jones Passes Away

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Former major league reliever Doug Jones has passed away, according to an announcement from the Guardians. He was 64 years old.

A right-hander, Jones first broke into the majors in 1982 with the eventual American League champion Brewers. That was just a four-game cameo, though, and he didn’t make it back to the bigs until 1986 with the Indians. Despite not really get an extended big league look until his age-30 season, Jones emerged as a fixture in the bullpen by 1987. He worked 91 1/3 frames of 3.15 ERA ball that year before kicking off a three-year run of sub-2.60 ERA, 30+ save seasons.

Jones was selected to the All-Star game each year from 1988-90, garnering down ballot MVP support in two of those seasons. After some uncharacteristic struggles in 1991, he posted arguably his best ever season the following year. Jones worked 111 2/3 innings across 80 relief outings with the Astros in 1992, earning his fourth All-Star nod and his highest MVP finish (14th). He’d continue to be an effective bullpen workhorse deep into his 40’s, earning his fifth and final All-Star selection in 1994 and again appearing on MVP ballots in 1997 before retiring in 2000.

Jones twice led MLB in games finished, wrapping up 70 contests with the ’92 Astros and 73 games with the ’97 Brewers. He appeared in parts of sixteen major league seasons and worked 1128 1/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball over 846 outings. Jones recorded 303 career saves and struck out 909 batters. His 129 saves with Cleveland ranks third in franchise history, and he ranks seventh in that category on Houston’s career leaderboard. Jones also pitched for the A’s, Pirates, Phillies, Cubs and Orioles over the course of his very impressive career. During his post-playing career, he served as a coach in the Rockies’ farm system.

MLBTR joins others around the game in sending our condolences to Jones’ family, friends, teammates and loved ones.

Yankees Reportedly Offered Verlander One-Year, $25MM Deal

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Before he signed a two-year, $50MM deal to return to the Astros, the Yankees made a decent push to sign veteran righty Justin Verlander. The Yankees offered Verlander $25MM for 2022, but they did not offer a second season, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). Verlander ultimately got $25MM a year for two years with an opt-out from the Astros.

Though Verlander has made just one start in the past two seasons, the 8-time All-Star won the American League Cy Young award the last time he was healthy for a full season, leading the Astros to an American League pennant. $25MM is no paltry sum, but as a one-year deal, signing Verlander would have been a relatively low-risk move for New York.

Without Verlander, the Yankees are still on the lookout for more rotation help. As of now, their rotation consists of Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, and a host of less certain options. Luis Severino should be a solid third arm if he’s able to stay healthy, and Nestor Cortes Jr. put together a pretty convincing run at the end of the 2021 season. Domingo German and Jameson Taillon are veterans with question marks who are capable of adding value from the rotation – though you might not be totally comfortable banking on a full season from either.

Meanwhile, the Yanks will again hope that their younger arms are able to establish themselves as contributors. Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Medina, and Michael King are all on the 40-man roster and could compete for bulk innings roles. Garcia is the most popular name in that bunch after a heartening six starts in 2020, he took a step back last year, pitching to a 6.48 ERA/4.85 FIP across 90 2/3 innings in Triple-A while making just two starts in the Majors.

Astros Trade Garrett Stubbs To Phillies

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The Phillies announced Friday that they have acquired catcher Garrett Stubbs from the Astros in exchange for minor league outfielder Logan Cerny. Stubbs becomes the second backup catching option acquired by the Phils tonight, who also added minor league backstop Donny Sands in a trade with the Yankees.

Stubbs, 28, has spent parts of three seasons in the Majors with the ’Stros, hitting at a combined .182/.238/.247 clip — albeit through a tiny sample of 87 plate appearances. It’s obviously not an impressive line, but Stubbs has a far better track record in Triple-A, where he hit .265/.418/.363 this season and carries a career-long line of .272/.369/.404 in parts of four seasons.

The Phils obviously don’t have a need for a starting catcher, not with J.T. Realmuto entering the second season of a five-year contract, but Stubbs will join Sands as a backup option. The former eighth-rounder has a strong defensive reputation, having posted a massive 41% caught-stealing rate in his pro career and strong framing rates (via Baseball Prospectus) throughout his minor league tenure. Stubbs also has a minor league option remaining, giving the Phils some flexibility if they choose to acquire a more established backup option to Realmuto. That said, Stubbs seems plenty capable of filling a backup role — he just hasn’t had the opportunity in recent seasons with the Astros leaning heavily on Martin Maldonado and Jason Castro.

As was the case in the Phillies’ trade with the Yankees, they tapped into their recent draft class to add some depth options rather than dealing more experienced farmhands from a thin minor league system. It’s not a bad strategy in moderation, particularly given that all of the players acquired in today’s pair of deals — Stubbs, Sands and righty Nick Nelson — can both be immediate depth options and be controlled for several years.

Cerny, 22, obviously isn’t one of the Phils’ top prospects given his status as a recent 10th-round pick, but he turned in a .291/.377/.529 in three seasons at Troy University. He hit .200/.349/.286 in 43 pro plate appearances following the draft.

Astros Select Jeremy Pena, Three Others

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The Astros announced they’ve selected infielders Jeremy Peña and Joe Perez, right-hander Shawn Dubin and left-hander Jonathan Bermudez to the 40-man roster. Infielder Freudis Nova has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Sugar Land, while Houston lost southpaw Kent Emanuel on waivers to Philadelphia. Houston’s 40-man roster is full, so they’ll need to make another move once their re-signing of Justin Verlander becomes official.

Peña is the most notable of the group, as he’s regarded by both FanGraphs and Baseball America as one of the top two prospects in the Houston system. Originally a third-round pick out of the University of Maine in 2018, Peña has handily outperformed that draft status as a professional. Always regarded as a high-end defensive infielder, the right-handed hitter has offered quite a bit more than expected at the plate over the past few seasons. He’s been an above-average hitter at every minor league stop by measure of wRC+.

While Peña’s still regarded as a glove-first prospect, his plate discipline and passable raw power should give him a chance to be an everyday shortstop in the future. The 23-year-old missed most of this past season recovering from wrist surgery but returned late in the year to hit .287/.346/.598 with ten homers over 133 plate appearances with Sugar Land. That came with an elevated 26.3% strikeout rate, and the Houston front office may want to give him a little more time at the minors’ top level before he makes his big league debut.

Still, Peña was a lock to be protected from the Rule 5, and it seems he’ll be in the majors before too long. With Carlos Correa potentially departing in free agency, the Astros have to weigh how confident they are in Peña’s ability to assume a key role on a contending club in 2022. The front office’s confidence in the talented youngster could well impact how hard they try to retain or replace Correa this offseason.

Perez was a second-round pick out of a Florida high school in 2017. Primarily a third baseman, he draws praise for his power and arm strength but has some questions about his bat-to-ball skills. The 22-year-old mashed over 109 plate appearances with High-A Asheville this year. He hit at an average .267/.322/.420 clip with eight homers and a 26.1% strikeout rate over 307 plate appearances upon a promotion to Double-A Corpus Christi. BA placed the right-handed hitter sixth in the Astros’ system midseason.

Dubin, 26, was a 13th-rounder in 2018 out of Georgetown College in Kentucky. The right-hander has posted strong numbers in a swing capacity over his pro career, topping out at Sugar Land this past season. BA credits him with a low-mid 90s fastball and plus slider, in addition to a fringe-average curveball and changeup. BA suggests he has a chance to stick as a starter, while FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that he’s likelier to end up in relief. Either way, Dubin’s bat-missing abilities should get him a major league look relatively soon. He punched out 35.4% of opponents against a 9.7% walk rate in 49 2/3 Triple-A innings this year, working to a 3.44 ERA in the process.

Bermudez, meanwhile, was a 23rd-rounder out of Southeastern University in that same 2018 draft. The 26-year-old southpaw has never appeared on an organizational ranking at FanGraphs or BA, but he’s the owner of a strong minor league resume. He split the 2021 campaign between the minors’ top two levels, working to a 3.24 ERA over 111 innings. Bermudez punched out a lofty 31.9% of batters faced while walking just 7.4%, setting himself up for a potential big league debut in 2022.

Nova was formerly one of the top prospects in the organization as well. He’s struggled with underperformance and injuries in recent seasons, and he underwent surgery to repair an ACL tear in September. The 21-year-old will remain in the organization and hope to work his way back onto the 40-man roster once he’s healthy.

Phillies Claim Kent Emanuel From Astros, Select Three Players

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve claimed lefty Kent Emanuel off waivers from the Astros and selected the contracts of three minor leaguers: infielder Luis Garcia, outfielder Jhailyn Ortiz and righty James McArthur. The Phils now have 36 players on their 40-man roster, and all of today’s additions are protected from the Rule 5 Draft.

Emanuel, 29, is a 2013 third-rounder who’d pitched to a 2.55 ERA with a 13-to-4K / BB ratio through his first 17 2/3 MLB innings. However, I have underwent a primary repair surgery on his left elbow back in June and missed the remainder of the season. Based on past primary repair cases, Emanuel could be reacy early in the 2022 season. That Emanuel’s debut campaign came at age 28 is in part due to the fact that a previous Tommy John surgery wiped out a good chunk of his 2015-16 campaigns.

Emanuel has also missed time with an 80-game PED suspension, though he’s among the growing number of players to raise issue following a positive test of trace amounts of DHCMT (seven picograms, in his case). The Wall Street Journal’s Jared Diamond explored  the issue at length last year, and Emanuel himself posted an 11-minute video  on Instagram  discussing his bewilderment over the positive test. Many fans will be skeptical of any player claiming innocence following a positive PED test, but it’s certainly worth reading Diamond’s column and watching Emanuel’s video for those who didn’t track the story at the time.

Garcia, 21, ranked on the back end of Baseball America’s Top 100 list in the 2018-19 offseason but saw his stock crater after he posted a .516 OPS in 2019. After a lost minor league season in 2020, the switch-hitter bounced back to some extent in 2021, slashing .243/.353/.414 across two Class-A levels.

Ortiz was a headlining international signing by the Phillies back in 2015, landing a $4MM bonus on the strength of his plus raw power. Now 23 years of age, Ortiz slugged 19 long balls in just 303 plate appearances with Class-A Advanced before scuffling mightily in a tiny sample of 88 Double-A plate appearances. The Phils, not wanting to lose a slugger who’s received 70 grades on his raw power (on the 20-80 scale), will dedicate a 40-man spot to keep him.

McArthur, a 2018 12th-rounder, spent most of the season in Double-A, where he pitched to a 4.48 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 48.3% ground-ball rate. FanGraphs gives him a chance at three above-average pitches but feels there’s a good bit of work left to be done in terms of his command. With 78 innings of respectable Double-A work under his belt, McArthur could be in the mix for a big league look at some point in 2022, should injuries necessitate a dip into the upper levels of the farm system.

D-backs Hire Brent Strom As Pitching Coach

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Nov. 18: The Diamondbacks have officially announced they’ve hired Strom as their pitching coach.

11:52am: Strom confirms to Mark Berman of FOX 26 in Houston that he has accepted an offer to be the next pitching coach of the Diamondbacks. “It’s an exciting time for me,” says Strom. “It’s a challenging job obviously. They’re much better than what their record showed.”

Strom also confirms the change of scenery to Rosenthal (Twitter links): “Me leaving the Astros had nothing to do with any disagreements or anything like that. Just a gut feeling on my part that eight years was long enough. It’s really in good shape with the people they have now.” He also heaps praise on Astros skipper Dusty Baker, calling him “as good a human being as I’ve ever been around in my life.”

11:43am: The Diamondbacks are set to hire Brent Strom as their new pitching coach, per Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of The Athletic (Twitter link). The hire comes just nine days after Strom announced that he would not return as the Astros’ pitching coach.

Strom didn’t commit to retirement at the time of his departure from the Houston organization, suggesting such a route could be on the table but also squarely leaving the door open for further coaching opportunities in the Majors. As USA Today’s Bob Nightengale points out, Strom resides in Tucson, Ariz., so the move to the D-backs brings him much closer to home.

It’s a notable get for the D-backs, who had one of the worst pitching staffs in Major League Baseball this past season and will soon welcome a bevy of interesting young arms to the big league ranks. Strom spent eight seasons as the pitching coach for the Astros, helping to develop a number of quality young arms and also turn around the careers of some previously unheralded journeymen.  While a pitching coach alone isn’t solely responsible for the successes of a staff — certainly not in the era of advance scouting and mounting data provided from analytics staffs — it’d be foolish not to credit Strom as a significant factor in the success of the Astros’ pitching staff over the years.

Young arms like Corbin Martin, Ryne Nelson, and Bryce Jarvis are all expected to begin next year in Double-A or higher, making them relatively near-term options for the big league club in Arizona. Strom ought to have the opportunity to work with them and with several of the D-backs younger arms in camp this spring, too — a group that includes names like Slade Cecconi and Blake Walston.

Of course, beyond the up-and-coming prospects, the D-backs will look to Strom to help right the ship for a club that posted the second-worst team ERA (5.15) and FIP (4.88) in all of Major League Baseball. Still-developing arms like Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Tyler Gilbert and J.B. Bukauskas will hope for better results and/or better health, and even an elder statesman such as Madison Bumgarner will surely welcome new ideas under Strom.

More than ever, it takes a village to field a competitive pitching staff (or, more broadly, a competitive roster), but there are few hires the D-backs could have made who would’ve commanded as much respect from the pitchers he’ll now oversee and from his peers on manager Torey Lovullo’s staff.

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