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Justin Verlander’s 2023 Player Option Reportedly Conditional On Reaching Innings Threshold

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Justin Verlander’s deal to return to the Astros became official this week. The contract guarantees him a $25MM salary in 2022 and reportedly contains a matching $25MM player option for the 2023 season. However, the Associated Press reports that Verlander’s option is conditional on him reaching 130 innings pitched next season.

Verlander should have a strong chance of reaching that tally. He’s no doubt locked into the Astros’ rotation, and he eclipsed 130 frames every year between 2006-19. The workhorse shattered that mark in every year other than 2015, surpassing 200 frames on twelve separate occasions. So long as he remains healthy, Verlander shouldn’t have any problem getting to 130 innings and at least giving himself the option of picking up some extra financial security.

That health caveat is an important one for any pitcher, though, and that’s particularly true in Verlander’s case. He’s thrown just six innings over the past two seasons on account of a 2020 elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery. Verlander’s expected to be at full strength to start next year, and the Houston front office was clearly confident enough in his health to put a $25MM salary on the table. Yet requiring an innings threshold to vest the 2023 player option affords the team some cover in case the 38-year-old Verlander (39 in February) suffers another injury next season.

The terms of Verlander’s deal were reportedly agreed upon in mid-November, but the signing wasn’t finalized until this week. Some observers may have wondered whether concerns about Verlander’s surgically-repaired elbow could’ve been the cause for the delay, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Buster Olney of ESPN wrote this week that the lag between the reported agreement and the finalization of the deal was due to some sort of administrative hold-up on the part of Major League Baseball.

Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market

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Carlos Correa entered the offseason as the top name on most free-agent rankings — including here at MLBTR — and remains unsigned as MLB and the MLBPA navigate a lockout that certainly doesn’t look anywhere near a resolution. There’s been plenty of discussion and speculation as to where he’ll ultimately land, but ESPN’s Buster Olney sheds some light on interest that Correa has already received, reporting that the Tigers put forth a 10-year, $275MM offer at one point this winter.

Presumably, that offer came before Detroit signed Javier Baez at six years and $140MM, although it’s at least possible to see how Detroit could make room for both players on the roster and payroll alike. It’s a notable offer, to be sure, but it’s also $66MM shy of what Francisco Lindor received from the Mets, $50MM shy of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers and a ways south of the range many pundits projected heading into free agency.

The reported Detroit offer also further underlines that the Astros’ recent offers to Correa are well shy of meeting the mark. Houston was said to have put forth an offer of five years and $160MM just prior to free agency, but that seemed like a nonstarter from the jump. Olney writes that Astros owner Jim Crane has told colleagues that he won’t make an offer of more than six years in length, which only reinforces the expectation that Correa is likely to sign with a new team for the 2022 season.

Of course, the burning question for most MLB fans and onlookers is a simple one: “where?” The Rangers nabbing a pair of high-end shortstops (Seager and Marcus Semien), on the surface, should have strengthened Correa’s market. Two of his top competitors signing with the same team should have kept another spot open elsewhere. However, the Tigers have signed Baez to that aforementioned six-year deal, and the Yankees — at least according to multiple pre-lockout reports — weren’t interested in the top-of-the-market shortstops, instead preferring shorter-term options to serve as a bridge to prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.

It remains plausible that the Yankees and several other big-market teams will more aggressively jump into the market post-lockout, once a (presumably) new luxury-tax threshold is set in stone. Olney hears from some agents who believe the Yankees and Dodgers could engage in the market for stars like Correa or Trevor Story once the forthcoming luxury tax structure is known. Those players’ representatives are surely hoping that will be the case, although even if the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. choose to eschew a mega-deal, that shouldn’t necessarily leave Correa out in the cold.

Houston’s interest will remain in place, barring a signing of Story or the acquisition of another notable infielder. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported earlier this month that each of the Red Sox, Cubs and Braves have also been in contact with Correa’s representatives at some point during the offseason. When those clubs reached out and the extent of each respective team’s interest isn’t clear, but it stands to reason at least some of that group will reengage with Correa’s reps whenever the transaction freeze ends.

That’s a nice “safety net” (for lack of a better term), and as the Braves’ and Cubs’ reported interest reflects, unexpected suitors tend to emerge for players at the top of the market. Few gave the Padres legitimate consideration when Manny Machado hit the market following the 2018 season, for instance. Broadly speaking, the top free agent each winter tends to get paid, particularly when said player is atypically young to reach the market — as is the case with the 27-year-old Correa. It’d be entirely unsurprising for other unexpected teams to join the bidding, viewing Correa as a rather unique opportunity to add an All-Star-caliber player who remains squarely in his prime.

Correa is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, having hit .279/.366/.485 with 26 home runs across 640 plate appearances. That offensive production was 34 points above the league average, by measure of wRC+, and it came over Correa’s biggest workload since 2016. Advanced defensive metrics were also particularly high on his work on the other side of the ball, for which he received his first Gold Glove award en route to a fifth-place finish in AL MVP voting.

Mets Begin Second Round Of Managerial Interviews With Three Finalists

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Dec. 14: The Mets will begin the second round of interviews today, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Dec. 12, 4:17pm: Matt Quatraro joins Showalter and Espada as finalists, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).

3:55pm: The Mets’ managerial search has moved on to the next stage, with Buck Showalter and Joe Espada making up the field of known final candidates, as per Ken Davidoff and Joel Sherman of The New York Post.  It isn’t known if a third candidate could also still be in the mix, or if Showalter and Espada are the only two who will now interview with Mets owner Steve Cohen.

There was no surprise over Showalter’s inclusion, and there is an increasing expectation that the veteran skipper will ultimately be the Mets’ choice.  As SNY’s Andy Martino puts it, a Showalter hiring “feels almost inevitable,” and “folks in the industry are convinced Showalter is getting the job unless something goes horribly wrong in final stages.”

While the 65-year-old Showalter has 20 years of managerial experience, the 46-year-old Espada has never been a manager at the big league level, though he has a long resume as a coach.  Working for the last four years as the Astros’ bench coach, Espada also has seven previous seasons of experience as a third base coach with the Yankees and Marlins, as well as stints as a special assistant to Yankees GM Brian Cashman and as a coach and coordinator in the Marlins’ farm system.

Espada has been a popular managerial candidate in recent years, and if Showalter does end up as New York’s next manager, it would represent another near-miss for the Astros coach.  Espada has been previously linked to managerial openings with the Blue Jays, Giants, Angels, Cubs, Orioles, Twins, and Rangers, and he reportedly came close to being hired by the Giants before they decided on Gabe Kapler.  Should the Mets pass on Espada, another opportunity might come quickly, as Espada has also recently spoken with the Athletics about their current managerial vacancy.

If Showalter and Espada are indeed the Mets’ final two, it is somewhat symbolic of how the club has weighed both experienced dugout voices and first-time candidates throughout their search.  Besides Showalter, the Mets also interviewed former Tigers/Angels manager Brad Ausmus and former A’s manager Bob Geren.  On the less-experienced side of the coin, the Mets also spoke with Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, and they looked to speak with Pirates bench coach Don Kelly before Kelly took himself out of consideration.

Justin Verlander’s Deal With Astros Made Official

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Last month, the Astros came to an agreement with Justin Verlander to bring back the eight-time All-Star. While the agreement and terms were reported in mid-November, the deal was somewhat curiously not made official prior to the December 2 lockout.

That’s no longer an issue, as Buster Olney of ESPN reports (on Twitter) that Major League Baseball has formally approved the agreement. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network adds that the contract was submitted to MLB on December 1, in the waning hours before the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement. Because it was submitted for approval before the lockout, MLB and the MLB Players Association have approved the deal even during the ongoing freeze of 40-man roster transactions.

It’s still not precisely clear what caused the atypically long hold-up, although Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic tweets that the now-resolved issue had to do with some “language in the contract.” That’s essentially a moot point now, as Verlander is again officially a member of the Astros. The originally-reported contract terms (a two-year, $50MM guarantee with an opt-out provision after the first season) remain in effect, tweets Heyman.

Verlander has only made one start over the past two seasons on account of Tommy John surgery. When last healthy, the former AL MVP posted one of the strongest seasons of his illustrious career. Over 223 innings in 2019, Verlander pitched to a 2.58 ERA/2.95 SIERA en route to his second career Cy Young award. The Astros are placing a sizable bet he’ll return to that star form coming off surgery and turning 39 years old in February. Of course, the Houston front office has kept a keen eye on Verlander’s recovery process throughout the past 14 months.

The Astros entered the lockout with an open spot on the 40-man roster, perhaps in anticipation of this exact scenario. No corresponding move will need to be made.

AL Notes: Astros, Blue Jays, Orioles

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Alex Bregman is preparing for a move to shortstop, should the Astros have a need, the third baseman told Michael Schwab on his podcast. Houston has not indicated a willingness to move Bregman, and in fact, GM James Click recently said that moving Bregman was not something they were considering. Still, it doesn’t hurt for Bregman to offer. We have seen a trend lately of third basemen moving up the defensive spectrum as players like Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw have seen time at second and Eugenio Suarez tried his hand at shortstop. These moves were hardly universal success stories, however, so it’s likely Bregman remains at the hot corner when the 2022 season opens.

In other rumblings from around the American League…

  • Like Bregman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was adamant last winter about his willingness to move up the defensive spectrum. Ultimately, Vladdy spent all of two innings at the hot corner in 2021. Recent rumors have again suggesting moving Vlad to third in order to accommodate a totally hypothetical Freddie Freeman signing, but that’s not something the Blue Jays have discussed with their young star, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. There would be other ways to accommodate a Freeman signing, but at least for now it seems their interest in Freeman was more due diligence than earnest sales pitch.
  • The Orioles signed five pitchers to minor league deals, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Bryan Bautista, 17, Raynel Duran, 18, Wilton Rondon, 19, Darwin Caballero, 21, and Noelin Cuevas, 19, will start the 2022 season in the Orioles’ organization. The Orioles continue to be one of the most pitching-needy organizations in the game, so while adding a handful of minor league free agents hardly qualifies as a game-changer, it’s a positive data point nonetheless. These five were all international free agents who will join the lowest level of Baltimore’s system, notes Kubatko.

Mets Interview Joe Espada In Managerial Search; Don Kelly Withdraws From Consideration

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The Mets have interviewed Astros’ bench coach Joe Espada as part of their ongoing managerial search, reports Andy Martino of SNY (Twitter link). He becomes the fifth known interviewee, joining Matt Quatraro, Buck Showalter, Brad Ausmus and Bob Geren.

Espada, 46, has spent the past four seasons as the Houston bench coach. His first two years were under A.J. Hinch, and he retained that position even after the club moved on to Dusty Baker in the wake of Hinch’s firing for his role the 2017 sign-stealing scandal. Before his time with the Astros, Espada spent four seasons in the Yankees’ organization, the latter three of which came on Joe Girardi’s coaching staff. Espada’s time in the Bronx partially overlapped with that of current Mets’ general manager Billy Eppler, who worked as an AGM with the Yankees from 2012-15.

To date, Espada has no big league managing experience. He’s long been regarded as a viable candidate to land a top position at some point, though. Over the 2018-19 offseason, he reportedly interviewed for managerial positions with the Twins, Angels and Rangers, and he was reported to be a finalist for the Blue Jays’ job that eventually went to Charlie Montoyo. The following winter, he met with the Cubs and Giants — making a strong enough impression with the latter organization that he was once reported to be the front-runner for a position that ultimately went to Gabe Kapler.

Espada has also drawn interest from the other club with a current vacancy in the dugout. Britt Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported earlier this week that he’s expected to sit down with A’s brass as part of their efforts to find a replacement for Bob Melvin.

Of the six known candidates for the Mets’ position, five have now interviewed. The other — Pirates’ bench coach Don Kelly — appears to be out of the running. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported this evening (on Twitter) that Kelly has pulled his name from consideration for personal reasons. Presumably, that means he’ll reprise his role as Derek Shelton’s top lieutenant in Pittsburgh in 2022.

That’s not to say the group of five known to have interviewed are the finalists for the position. Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that the Mets have an interview with an additional unknown candidate scheduled for tomorrow morning.

Update On Mets’ Managerial Search

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Not long after reports of the A’s conducting their first managerial interview surfaced, the Mets have begun an interview carousel of their own. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets conducted their first managerial interview today, and expect to keep the process going Tuesday. Among the identified managerial candidates include a trio of bench coaches— Houston’s Joe Espada, Tampa Bay’s Matt Quatraro, and Pittsburgh’s Don Kelly— as well as two veteran managers, Buck Showalter and Brad Ausmus.

Martino notes that the current list of candidates still has room to grow, but throws cold water on the notion that beloved Mets alumni Curtis Granderson and David Wright will interview after their names surfaced in earlier discussions. Whoever makes the shortlist and earns a shot at interviewing will meet with newly-minted GM Billy Eppler and his staff. Owner Steve Cohen will meet with vetted candidates some time after the initial round of interviews.

The identity of today’s interviewed candidate was none other than Brad Ausmus, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Ausmus has quite a few things going for his candidacy that surely helped net him the first opportunity to meet with Mets decision-makers. One such factor working in Ausmus’s favor is his relationship to Eppler, as Ausmus served as a special assistant to Eppler before being promoted to dugout manager in 2019 while the two were with the Angels. In other networking news, Fansided’s Robert Murray also notes that Ausmus is a Dartmouth alum like Mets president Sandy Alderson and assistant GM Bryn Alderson.

Unlike some of the candidates who have yet to interview, Ausmus also has a track record as a Major League manager. Between his time with the Angels and Detroit, he has compiled a 386-412 record as a manager, including two winning seasons at the helm and a playoff appearance. It probably also doesn’t hurt Ausmus’s case that his best season in Detroit coincided with Max Scherzer’s last season in the AL. Scherzer, one of the Mets’ marquee pickups this offseason, owns one of the game’s more fiery personalities and is perhaps best handled by a dugout operator who’s familiar with his tempo.

If Quatraro’s name rings a bell it may be because he interviewed with the A’s within the past couple of days. That the Tampa Bay bench coach has landed interviews for 100% of this offseason’s managerial vacancies is no surprise. The Rays have proven their division’s winningest team during Quatraro’s time as bench coach, no small feat considering the powerhouses that reside within those same confines. Martino reports that Quatraro is in line for a Tuesday interview.

There aren’t many updates for the remaining candidates of Espada, Kelly, and Showalter, though they all remain highly credible options in the wake of MLBTR’s profile of their candidacies last week. Jon Heyman does note (via Twitter) that Espada and Eppler share a “strong link” dating back to their time in the Yankees organization, and calls Espada a “serious contender”.

Red Sox, Astros Interested In Trevor Story

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The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros have expressed interest in free agent shortstop Trevor Story, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman in his latest insider piece for Audacy’s “Big Time Baseball” podcast. Heyman reiterates that he’s also heard Seattle convey interest in the shortstop, as MLBTR covered prior to the lockout last week. As is the case with all player-team connections made in the lockout age, no talks can take place between either party until the lockout is lifted.

Interestingly, Boston was recently cited as a team who reached out to free agent shortstop Carlos Correa’s camp. The path to that connection being anything more than due diligence lies in moving All-Star Xander Bogaerts off the position, an option neither the player nor Boston front office have indicated is on the table. The takeaway from a potential Correa pursuit is in many ways identical to a hypothetical Story one— sign an All-Star shortstop to guard against a Bogaerts departure, improving infield defense in the interim.

Just like Boagaerts, Story has yet to give a firm indication that he’ll be anything but a shortstop heading into the 2022 season. As we saw with Boston’s recent reacquisition of Jackie Bradley Jr. however, the Red Sox clearly aren’t afraid of shuffling players around if it means upgrading their defense. Even on the heels of a modest-for-him campaign, metrics across the board agree that Story would be an improvement with the glove over the incumbent Bogaerts. Of course, with Seattle allegedly showing interest in Story as a third baseman it’s possible Boston can do the same, choosing instead to move Rafael Devers (a subpar defender in his own right) off his position for a presumed upgrade in Story.

The Houston connection, for what it’s worth, would require the least moving parts to bring Story aboard. With Correa out of the picture for now, the Astros have a clear opening at shortstop that Story could fill. As is the case with the Red Sox, a Story signing may push the team past the first luxury tax threshold if he signs somewhere in the vicinity of MLBTR’s predicted six-year, $126MM guarantee. This may be a bridge too far then for Houston, though they’ll likely have plenty of financial wiggle room as soon as 2023 (to say nothing of a CBA that may change entirely).

Financial complications aside, the Astros pursuit of Story may hinge on how ready they are to give top-ranked prospect Jeremy Peña a look. Peña dominated in a 30-game showing at Triple-A this year, swatting 10 home runs to go with a .287/.346/.598 slash line. The home run power is new, and certainly encouraging for Houston brass to consider, but still may not be enough to hand the starting shortstop job to a 24-year-old.

The Astros remain the top dogs in the AL West but should expect the overall competitiveness of their division to increase next year. The drop-off from a 7.2 bWAR Carlos Correa to whatever it is a rookie can produce may be less palatable than simply turning to a steady producer like Story. With Story locked in alongside Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve through 2024, the team would then have the benefit of shopping Peña around for talent beyond the infield, or can simply hold onto him as a very enviable depth piece.

Lance McCullers Jr. “About A Month” Away From Throwing

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Lance McCullers Jr. last pitched in Game 4 of the ALDS, as the Astros right-hander suffered a flexor pronator muscle strain that sidelined him for the remainder of Houston’s playoff run.  Tests at the time of the injury didn’t reveal any structural damage, and McCullers continued to give positive news when speaking The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome (Twitter link) and other reporters today before serving as an honorary captain for the NFL’s Houston Texans.

McCullers revealed that an MRI taken within the last two weeks didn’t show any damage, and Dr. Neal ElAttrache indicated that the graft McCullers received during his November 2018 Tommy John surgery is still in good condition.  The right-hander said that he is “about a month” away from beginning to throw, which represents a longer rest timeline than the six-to-eight weeks McCullers projected in late October.

Still, it would seem like McCullers is still tentatively on pace to proceed relatively normally during Spring Training, and then be ready for Opening Day.  (Obligatory caveat that the lockout could potentially delay the opening of spring camps and potentially the start of the 2022 season.)  Needless to say, the Astros would keep a close eye on any pitcher recovering from a forearm injury, but McCullers will perhaps receive particular attention given the one TJ procedure already on his health history.

That earlier procedure cost McCullers the entire 2019 season, though he has pitched well since his return to action.  The right-hander posted a 3.35 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate in 217 1/3 innings in 2020-21, with his fastball still sitting at its pre-TJ velocity.  Health-wise, McCullers had avoided any major issues prior to this forearm problem — a minimum 10-day IL stint in 2020 due to a neck strain, and he missed about three weeks this past season with shoulder soreness.

The Astros can only wonder what might have been if McCullers had been available against the Braves in the World Series, but the concern now is getting McCullers set for the start of the next season.  He will rejoin a rotation mix that includes Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Jake Odorizzi and theoretically Justin Verlander, though Verlander’s reported two-year agreement with Houston wasn’t officially finalized prior to the lockout, and it is still unclear exactly what is causing the delay.

Latest On Mets’ Managerial Search

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10:04 pm: Martino tweets that while Granderson’s name had come up in initial discussions, he is not expected to interview for the position.

9:49 pm: Robert Murray of FanSided reports (on Twitter) that longtime big league outfielder Curtis Granderson is also under consideration for the Mets. The 40-year-old announced his retirement from playing in 2020 following a 16-year big league career that included a trio of All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger Award.

Granderson had emerged as a respected veteran presence in clubhouses over the course of his career. He currently serves as the president of the Players Alliance, a nonprofit organization aimed at increasing accessibility within the sport for Black athletes. Granderson played four seasons with the Mets during team president Sandy Alderson’s time as the club’s GM. Prior to that, he spent four years with the Yankees — a stint that overlapped with Eppler’s time in the club’s front office.

6:35 pm: The Mets declined an option to bring back skipper Luis Rojas shortly after the end of the 2021 season. Two months later, they remain without a manager. After spending a significant chunk of the early offseason in the search for a new GM that eventually landed Billy Eppler, the Mets turned their attention to the player market last week in advance of the lockout. With clubs barred from making major league transactions for the duration of the work stoppage, the Mets and the Athletics, the other team currently without a manager, figure to zero in on those respective searches in short order.

Andy Martino of SNY reports some preliminary candidates, naming Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly and former MLB managers Buck Showalter and Brad Ausmus among those under early consideration. Martino cautions that’s not an exhaustive list, and it’s not clear whether everyone in that group will get an interview.

No one from that group registers as much of a surprise. None of Espada, Quatraro or Kelly has managed at the big league level, but they’ve all been rumored as part of searches elsewhere. Espada, 46, has been the bench coach in Houston for the past four seasons, working underneath both A.J. Hinch and Dusty Baker. He’s interviewed for a few different managerial openings in recent years and at one point even looked to be the favorite for the Giants job that eventually went to Gabe Kapler.

Quatraro’s name has come up a few times over the past couple offseasons. Kevin Cash’s top lieutenant over the last three years in Tampa Bay, the 48-year-old Quatraro has interviewed with the Giants, Pirates and Tigers in winters past and was reportedly a finalist for the Pittsburgh job that went to Derek Shelton. Kelly has worked underneath Shelton in the Steel City over the past two seasons. The 41-year-old interviewed with the Tigers and Red Sox last offseason and was reported to be among the top handful under consideration for the job that went to Alex Cora.

Showalter and Ausmus, meanwhile, come with significant managerial experience. The former has been one of the more accomplished skippers of the past couple decades. Showalter, now 65, landed his first big league managerial job with the Yankees in 1992. He spent four years in the Bronx, managed the D-Backs from 1998-2000, the Rangers from 2003-06 and the Orioles from 2010-18.

Over his career, Showalter won Manager of the Year Awards at three of those four stops. He’s overseen five playoff clubs (including three division winners), taking the 2014 Orioles to the AL Championship Series. Showalter hasn’t managed since being dismissed by Baltimore after the 2018 campaign, but he’s continued to express openness to a return to the dugout.

Ausmus, meanwhile, has managed at two separate stints. He spent the 2014-17 campaigns at the helm of the Tigers, then managed the Angels in 2019. That stint in Anaheim overlapped with Eppler’s tenure as Angels’ GM, fueling immediate speculation upon the latter’s hiring with the Mets that he could look to bring Ausmus to Queens.

Prior to that stint as skipper, Ausmus spent the 2018 season as a member of the Los Angeles front office. Eppler’s Angels fired Ausmus after just one season in the managerial chair, but it was reported at the time that call was made by owner Arte Moreno (perhaps not coincidentally just one day after it was announced Joe Maddon was leaving the Cubs).

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