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Dallas Keuchel Discusses Free Agency

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Although he reached free agency last offseason as one of the most accomplished starters on the open market, former AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel went without a team for a shockingly long time. Keuchel, who looked like a shoo-in to sign a lucrative multiyear deal at the outset of the winter, ended up settling for the Braves’ one-year, $13MM offer shortly after the amateur draft in early June.

The fact that Keuchel’s previous team, the Astros, attached a qualifying offer to him before he became a free agent was an obvious cause for the difficulty he encountered on the market. The longer Keuchel sat without a deal, the closer the draft came. The closer the draft came, the more content teams were to wait Keuchel out and attempt to sign the Scott Boras client without having to give up compensation in the form of a pick(s).

With the qualifying offer system still intact heading into this winter, there could be some soon-to-be free agents who meet a similar fate to what Keuchel and fellow post-draft signing Craig Kimbrel faced earlier in 2019. Keuchel won’t be one of them, as a player can’t receive a QO twice, though he explained to Jesse Rogers of ESPN that he remains frustrated with the setup that’s in place.

“This is whole draft-pick compensation thing went from a throw-in for a team losing a player, to is he really a free agent now?” Keuchel said.“How can you be free if there is a draft pick attached to you? And why do they value draft picks so much when the percentage of picks who make the league, and are better than you, is what, like .01 percent? There are so many things wrong.”

Like many of his fellow players, Keuchel’s irked by the last two offseasons, both of which were notoriously sluggish from a free agency standpoint. “It’s not just us being the bad guys,” Keuchel said of the players.

Keuchel’s among those displeased with the way free agency has been trending, though that doesn’t mean he didn’t receive multiyear offers during his trip to the market. On the contrary, the Angels were among those who were willing to commit more than one year to Keuchel, per Rogers. However, Keuchel believed those teams “undervalued” him, writes Rogers. It also seems signing with a playoff-caliber club was a priority for Keuchel, who, despite his relatively underwhelming results in free agency, believes he’s now “in the best possible for scenario for myself” as a member of a World Series-contending Braves team.

Although he wasn’t the ace-caliber hurler we’ve seen in the past, Keuchel did help the Braves to an NL East title after his midseason arrival. The 31-year-old threw 112 2/3 innings of 3.75 ERA/4.72 FIP with 7.27 K/9 and 3.12 BB/9 and a 60.1 percent groundball rate in the regular season, and then added 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the team’s Game 1 loss to the Cardinals in the NLDS. With that series heading to a winner-take-all Game 5 on Wednesday (in which Mike Foltynewicz will take the mound for Atlanta), Keuchel might not make another start for the Braves. The club could try to re-sign Keuchel whenever its season ends, but it if that doesn’t happen, he’ll have to test the free-agent waters again. While it’s likely Keuchel’s next deal will outdo his current pact, he doesn’t seem thrilled about returning to the market.

“I still have to go back into the zoo [free agency] but I figured if this offseason doesn’t present more offers, more swiftly, like the NBA or the NFL, then the normal fan will see exactly what’s going on,” Keuchel said. “That’s what I want people to see.”

NL Notes: Waino, Chop, Zaidi

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Sunday will mark the first postseason game played in St. Louis in three years, but Cardinals manager Mike Schildt will be trusting the game’s start to a relatively practiced postseason hand. Redbirds legend Adam Wainwright–a free-agent-to-be this offseason–will be taking the ball for Schildt, who is counting on the pitcher’s experience with what promises to be a raucous Busch Stadium atmosphere.

“You have to account for some of the vibe that’s going on out there,” Schildt told Anne Rogers of MLB.com today, “You have to be able to calm your nerves and you have to be able to control your adrenaline, because I’ve seen it where guys go out there and they’re feeling on top of the moon and their adrenaline is rushing, and two innings later they’re out of gas.”

As Rogers notes, Wainwright will be making his 24th appearance in a postseason game (13 starts), after first appearing in the national October spotlight in 2006 as a relief ace for then-manager Tony La Russa’s World Series-winning Cards team. That year saw a 24-year-old Wainwright begin his playoff career with 9.2 scoreless innings, and he has only followed up that initial success by compiling a nifty 3.03 ERA across 89.0 career postseason innings. This year marked the now-38-year-old’s first season over the 30-start mark since 2016, and this October should provide him yet another opportunity to assure the Cardinals–and rival clubs–that he deserves a healthy free agent guarantee this winter.

More notes from around the National League in anticipation of Sunday’s NLDS doubleheader…

  • The Associated Press is circulating a story involving Wainwright’s teammate Ryan Helsley, who did not take kindly to witnessing the en masse enactment of the Braves’ “Tomahawk Chop” tradition during Game 1 of the NLDS this Thursday (link). In comments originally made to writer/hero Derrick Goold, Helsley, who is a member of the Cherokee nation, called the “Chop” “disappointing” and “disrespectful”. “[The tradition] just depicts them in this kind of caveman-type people way who aren’t intellectual. They are a lot more than that. It’s not me being offended by the whole mascot thing. It’s not. It’s about the misconception of us, the Native Americans, and how we’re perceived in that way, or used as mascots.” Of course, with the NLDS tied 1-1 heading to St. Louis for Game 3 of the best-of-five NLDS, it’s possible Helsley could have a say in preventing the series returning to Atlanta. The 25-year-old Oklahoman pitched to a 2.95 ERA in 36.2 innings in 2019, his rookie season.
  • Giants executive Farhan Zaidi already made MLBTR headlines today, when he gave some insight into the team’s ongoing search for a new GM. In a separate set of quotes relayed by NBC’s Alex Pavlovic, Zaidi conducted something of a performance self-assessment in regard to his work at the 2019 trade deadline–and it’s clear Zaidi is a fair critic (link). “I feel like I alternate nights losing sleep about not potentially buying at the deadline and trying to improve our chances this year, or selling more at the deadline and setting ourselves up better for 2020 and going forward,” Zaidi admitted to Pavlovic. It stands to reason that the veteran baseball man would be left with some cognitive dissonance over his team’s activity this summer, being that the club took something of a walk-the-line approach in their dealings.
    While San Francisco held onto impending free agents Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith (and sacrificed the potential prospect assets they might have acquired in a deal involving those players), the team also shaved down the bullpen by sending away Drew Pomeranz, Sam Dyson, and Mark Melancon in separate deals. To be fair, Zaidi was in perhaps the toughest position of any club executive heading into this year’s deadline, as his expected-to-flounder 2019 Giants ripped off a stunning run of success in advance of the Jul. 31 push-or-shove precipice. After playing to their expected level for much of the year, Bruce Bochy’s boys of summer went 19-6 in July, ultimately forcing their front office leader into something of a compromising position. The Giants went 22-36 from Aug. 1 onward, ultimately finishing with a 77-85 record.

Julio Teheran Replaces Chris Martin On Braves’ NLDS Roster

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Right-hander Julio Teheran will replace injured reliever Chris Martin on the Braves’ postseason roster, the team announced Friday morning. Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets that with Teheran now on board, he’ll likely draw the starting nod in a theoretical Game 4, with lefty Max Fried continuing on as a relief option for the rest of the series.

Martin didn’t throw a pitch in last night’s contest, as he sustained an oblique strain when coming out of the ’pen to begin the eighth inning. At the time, Atlanta held a 3-1 lead but quickly saw things unravel when right-handers Luke Jackson and Mark Melancon combined to surrender six earned runs while recording a collective total of five outs. Despite a pair of ninth-inning homers from Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman, the Braves were left stunned by a 7-6 loss at the hands of the NL Central champion Cardinals.

Fried had been tentatively lined up to start Game 4, if necessary, after being available out of the ’pen in the first couple games of the series. He tossed 14 pitches and picked up two strikeouts in a flawless inning of relief yesterday, and if he’s going to be reserved for a bullpen role for the remainder of the NLDS, it stands to reason that he’ll be more available for multi-inning work now as well.

Martin’s injury, meanwhile, likely brings an end to his time with the Braves. While Atlanta could re-sign him, he’s a free agent at season’s end and will also have the opportunity to explore offers from other clubs. Acquired on July 30 in a trade that sent pitching prospect Kolby Allard to the Rangers, the 33-year-old Martin logged a 4.08 ERA and a sensational 22-to-1 K/BB ratio in 17 2/3 innings with the Braves.

The unfortunate injury also gives the 28-year-old Teheran what could be one final opportunity to pitch in a Braves uniform. While he’s controlled for the 2020 season via a $12MM club option ($1MM buyout), there’s no guarantee that the Braves opt to exercise that clause. (MLBTR readers weighed in on the subject last night and were evenly split when polled about his future.) In 174 2/3 innings this season, Teheran pitched to a 3.81 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9 and a 39 percent ground-ball rate. Those are solid enough numbers, but Teheran’s walk rate has risen significantly over the past two seasons while his velocity has dropped (career-low 89.7 mph average fastball in ’19).

Braves’ Chris Martin Likely Out For Rest Of Postseason

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10:59pm: Atlanta’s “likely” to replace Martin with Teheran, per Bowman.

9:20pm: The Braves lost Game 1 after a bullpen implosion, and it appears they’ll have to go the rest of the playoffs without Martin. Expectations are he’s done for the postseason, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. It’s not known yet who will replace Martin on Atlanta’s roster.

7:22pm: As of this writing, Atlanta’s bullpen just blew a late lead over St. Louis in the first game of the National League Division Series. The two teams are heading to the bottom of the eighth inning tied at three. The Braves had a 3-1 advantage entering the top of the frame, which turned into a catastrophe for the club. It began when right-hander Chris Martin, whom the Braves initially called on to preserve the lead, exited with tightness in his left oblique, Mark Bowman of MLB.com was among those to report.

Martin left prior to throwing a pitch, leading the Braves to turn to righty Luke Jackson, who struggled over two-thirds of an inning before they pulled him. His replacement, Mark Melancon, also failed to get the job done.

Considering oblique injuries often require absences of at least a few weeks, it seems possible Martin won’t pitch again this season. That would be an awful development for the Braves, who acquired Martin in July with the hope he’d carry his impressive first few months with Texas to Atlanta. It turns out the 33-year-old hasn’t been quite as effective as a Brave, as his ERA has climbed a full run from 3.08 to 4.08, though he did end the regular season in excellent fashion. Martin threw 5 1/3 innings of two-hit ball with no walks and eight strikeouts in September.

Between his two teams this year, Martin posted a fantastic 65 strikeouts against five free passes over 55 2/3 innings. Martin will try to parlay that production into a nice payday when he reaches free agency after the season. In the meantime, the Braves can ill afford to lose him as they attempt to push for a World Series. If Martin is in for a lengthy absence, though, they may end up having to call on one of Julio Teheran, Anthony Swarzak, Jerry Blevins, Kyle Wright or Bryse Wilson – all of whom were left off their NLDS roster.

MLBTR Poll: Julio Teheran’s Option

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The Braves are currently licking their wounds after collapsing in the first game of their National League Division Series matchup against the Cardinals on Thursday. Before the series began, Atlanta made the decision to leave right-hander Julio Teheran off its roster in order to deepen its bench. It wasn’t long ago that keeping Teheran out of a playoff series would have been unthinkable for the Braves, as he was once among the crown jewels of the franchise. In fact, during his first two full seasons (2013-14), Teheran notched 63 starts and 406 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA/3.58 FIP ball with 7.88 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Prior to the second of those seasons, the Braves locked up Teheran to an extension worth a guaranteed $32.4MM over six years. At the time, it was the second-largest pact given to a pitcher with just two years’ service time.

Now 28, Teheran has hung with the Braves through the entirety of his deal, though he hasn’t been able to deliver the results he did during his early career coming-out party. Now, it’s possible he’s just about at the end of the line as a Brave. After the season concludes, the Braves will have a call to make on whether to exercise the $12MM club option for 2020 that they included in Teheran’s contract. They could pick it up with the goal of retaining Teheran, exercise it and try to trade him or decline it in favor of a $1MM buyout.

A one-year, $12MM gamble on Teheran wouldn’t look wholly unappealing for the Braves or anyone else. In Atlanta’s case, the club will head into the offseason with only Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz looking sure to return from this year’s staff (Game 1 NLDS starter Dallas Keuchel is a pending free agent). The team could also explore free agency and trades for other possible solutions and-or turn to young arms like Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Muller sometime in 2020. That foursome has little to no major league experience under its belt, though. Wright and Wilson have struggled over a small sample of MLB innings, while Anderson and Muller have not debuted yet.

If nothing else, Teheran has shown a consistent ability to eat innings. He’s fresh off his seventh consecutive regular season of 30-plus starts. Moreover, in 2019, Teheran continued an annual trend of yielding a low batting average on balls in play (.266), recording a solid home run-to-fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and outproducing his fielding-independent numbers. Across a team-high 174 2/3 innings, he managed a 3.81 ERA despite a far less appealing 4.66 FIP, 5.26 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA. While Teheran added a career-high 8.35 strikeouts per nine innings, he also turned in his second-largest walk rate (4.28 BB/9), once again induced few ground balls (39 percent), logged an all-time low swinging-strike percentage (9.2) and averaged a personal-worst 89.7 mph on his four-seam fastball – the pitch he relies on most.

Teheran clearly has his flaws, but that doesn’t mean the Braves will move on from him. It also doesn’t mean he’ll wind up making zero contributions this postseason (he could get back on their roster immediately as a result of Chris Martin’s oblique injury). Atlanta obviously has greater priorities right now than worrying about Teheran’s future, but once the Braves’ season ends, what do you think they’ll do with him?

(Poll link for app users)

Braves Leave Julio Teheran Off NLDS Roster

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TODAY: The Braves have formally announced the full roster. In addition to the moves previously announced, the club nailed down a few other spots. Darren O’Day and Josh Tomlin got the nod in the bullpen over other options that included Julio Teheran, Anthony Swarzak, Jerry Blevins, Kyle Wright, and Bryse Wilson.

YESTERDAY: Braves manager Brian Snitker announced today that the team has decided not to carry Julio Teheran on its roster for the National League Divisional Series. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman was among those to cover (Twitter links). The action gets underway tomorrow, with the Braves squaring off against the NL Central-champion Cardinals.

The Atlanta organization elected not to carry an extra starter, preferring instead to operate with a deeper bench. Left-handed-hitting outfielder Rafael Ortega got the surprise nod for that spot, with Austin Riley also being left out of the picture. Veteran righty Josh Tomlin nabbed a final bullpen spot.

While the Braves did not formally release a full roster list, we can surmise the remainder of the picture:

Right-handed pitchers

Left-handed pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Snitker indicated that the team decided to carry an extra bench piece in large part because of the absences of Charlie Culberson, Johan Camargo, and Ender Inciarte, who might’ve been entrusted to broader roles. That pushed Teheran out of the picture, leaving Fried as the fourth starter if one is needed.

There’s clearly a real possibility that Teheran’s last appearance in a Braves uniform was his final one. He could still be called upon if the Braves advance to the NLCS and have slightly different needs. And it’s still plenty possible that the organization will elect to pick up Teheran’s $12MM option for 2020 — even if only to trade him on to another club.

It’s also potentially telling to see Riley left home in favor of Ortega. There’s little question Riley has a future in the organization; the latter was chosen primarily because he’s a left-handed hitter who balances out the options for Snitker. But it’s still notable that Riley wasn’t able to push his way into the postseason plans. It remains to be seen whether the Braves will enter the offseason planning to hand the third base (or a corner outfield) job to Riley for 2020.

Ender Inciarte Unlikely To Be Available In Postseason

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Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte seemed close to a return at the tail end of the regular season, but was ruled out of action for the NLDS after reporting continued discomfort when he tried to ramp things up. He had continued working toward a potential return in the event that the club advances, but that effort now seems all but over.

Inciarte has been nursing a hamstring injury, but he has now also come down with a quad malady. As MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets, the belief now is that the veteran outfielder has no realistic hope of returning to the field of play in 2019 — even if the club is able to advance.

That’s a disappointing development for the Braves, whose NLDS roster — and potential future NLCS and World Series 25-man lists — would look a lot better with a full-strength Inciarte. The club would also dearly love to have Charlie Culberson and/or Johan Camargo available. Without these versatile and established performers, the Braves felt compelled to carry an additional position player (Rafael Ortega, for the NLDS) rather than an extra pitcher. That may not be possible in a seven-game series.

While Inciarte would’ve preferred to finish out the campaign in uniform, he’s still likely to return for another go in 2020. The Braves will owe him $7MM next year and $8MM in 2021, with a club option to follow. It’s possible Inciarte could be dangled in trade talks, depending upon the club’s other moves, but he’s still a highly useful and cost-efficient piece that seems to fit the Atlanta roster.

Ender Inciarte Will Not Return To Braves For NLDS

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The Braves have shut down outfielder Ender Inciarte from physical activity, manager Brian Snitker told reporters including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). He’s not going to be a part of the team’s upcoming divisional series roster.

Inciarte had hoped to appear in the team’s final series of the regular season. But it didn’t go well when he tested out his injured hamstring today. The decision was made that he simply won’t be ready when the NLDS gets underway on October 3rd.

Going without Inciarte isn’t a huge surprise at this point, and the impact is mitigated somewhat by the fact that Nick Markakis was able to return from his own significant injury. The club can still trot out Billy Hamilton in a run-and-glove role, too, though he’s not to Inciarte’s standard with the bat.

At this point, at least, the Atlanta organization isn’t ruling Inciarte out for a hypothetical championship series round return. But he’ll need to rest up and test the hammy once more. And it’ll take a bit of a leap of faith to activate him at that point, given the risk of aggravating the injury and the fact that he hasn’t seen live game action in months.

East Notes: Acuna Jr., BoSox, Betts, Yanks, Hicks

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The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve shut banged up outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. down for the rest of the regular season. Hip tightness and a left groin strain have troubled Acuna of late, but the NL East-winning Braves expect the superstar to be fine by the time the NLDS begins next week. The Braves, who are locked into the NL’s No. 2 seed, don’t have anything of substance to play for over the final few days of the season. However, it’s still a shame for the 21-year-old Acuna that he won’t have an opportunity at a 40-40 campaign. Acuna’s outstanding regular season will end with 41 home runs, 37 steals, a .280/.365/.518 line and 5.5 fWAR over 715 plate appearances.

Moving over to the AL East…

  • Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts has made it known that he plans to become a free agent after 2020, his final season of arbitration control. The 2018 AL MVP told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he’s taking a business-minded approach instead of one driven by emotions because of his upbringing. “Fans and media get caught up in emotions and that’s just not how I was raised and that’s just not what my point of view with my agents is,” said Betts. “We take emotions out of it and we focus on the business part. Of course, I love it here. This is all I know. But you also have to take that emotional side out of it and get to what is actually real.” Betts further explained to Bradford that a business-first mindset has steered him right in the past, specifically when he signed with the Red Sox as a fifth-round pick in 2011 and when he brushed off a possible contract extension before the 2017 season in order to reach arbitration during the ensuing winter.
  • Utility player Brock Holt, one of Betts’ Red Sox teammates, may be in his final days with the club. The pending free agent told Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald that he has loved playing for the Red Sox, who acquired him back in 2013. At the same time, though, he finds the idea of a potential trip to free agency “exciting.” That’s understandable coming from Holt, who boasts a respectable track record of production. Injuries have limited him to 83 games this season, but the 31-year-old has batted a solid .303/.379/.414 during that 280-PA span.
  • Although he hasn’t played since Aug. 3, injured Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks continues to hold out hope that he’ll be able to return during the postseason, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Hicks, who’s dealing with a right flexor tendon issue, has begun to throw from 120 feet. He hasn’t progressed to throwing to bases, though, and there won’t be any chance of a comeback until that happens.

Ronald Acuna Dealing With Hip Tightness

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The last thing the Braves need at this point of the season, with nothing more to gain or lose in the standings, is an injury issue — least of all to a key player. In that light, it was rather concerning to see young star Ronald Acuna depart yesterday’s game early.

Per a club announcement at the time, Acuna was pulled owing to hip tightness. The team characterized the decision as precautionary. Of course, that’s something of a typical placeholding statement in such situations, so Braves fans would be forgiven for fearing worse.

Manager Brian Snitker made clear after the contest that the organization doesn’t see cause for alarm, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. “He’ll just be day to day,” says Snitker. “We’ll treat him up and see how he is tomorrow.”

Acuna was even more forceful on the point, saying he didn’t feel he needed to be removed and will be ready to go whenever he’s written back into the lineup. That’s just the sort of gung ho attitude you admire in a young player, but it’s also something the team needs to protect against with the postseason beckoning.

Indeed, the 21-year-old also indicated that this isn’t a new issue.

“I’ve been feeling it before. But I’m a warrior and I’m going to keep playing through these types of things. That’s just the way that I am. I was dealing with it and pushing through it. But eventually, it came to the point where it became a little more intolerable.”

Given that, it was surely wise of the Braves to take a cautious approach. Acuna is, after all, one of the team’s key players. Even if the hip isn’t a significant hindrance at the plate, it could conceivably limit him in the field and on the bases — where he derives significant value — or end up resulting in a more concerning health issue.

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