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Phillies, Diamondbacks Interested In Ryan Helsley

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The calendar has not yet even flipped to May, leaving more than three months to go until MLB’s trade deadline on July 31. That hasn’t stopped some teams from assessing their needs and even beginning to look into potential targets for the summer, however, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Phillies and Diamondbacks both already have an eye on Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley. There’s no indications that St. Louis is currently listening to offers on their closer, nor that either Philadelphia or Arizona has reached out to Cardinals brass at this point, though Nightengale goes on to suggest that Helsley is “likely” to be dealt prior to the deadline.

It’s easy to see why Helsley would be an attractive candidate for teams looking for a closer. The righty emerged as the Cardinals’ closer in 2022 and has been nothing short of dominant ever since, with a combined 1.83 ERA (225 ERA+), a 34.6% strikeout rate, and and 2.35 FIP to go with 83 saves over the past three years. Those numbers are nothing short of elite: Among all qualified relievers during that stretch, Helsley’s ERA is third (behind Emmanuel Clase and Devin Williams), his FIP is fourth (behind Williams, Matt Brash, and Edwin Diaz), his saves total ranks sixth, and his strikeout rate ranks eighth.

Those sensational numbers made Helsely a prime trade target for clubs in need of relief help over the winter, including Arizona and Toronto. The Cardinals seemingly rebuffed offers on their closer throughout the offseason, however, even as they opted not to discuss an extension with their closer as they shied away from making long-term commitments this winter. St. Louis’s 12-15 record puts them 4.5 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central and three games underwater. It’s still plenty early enough for virtually any team in the majors to go on a run and get themselves into the playoff conversation, but failing a surprise reversal in fortune a Cardinals front office that attempted to soft-launch a retooling over the offseason appears likely to sell rental pieces like Helsley this summer.

Should Helsley be dangled by the Cardinals later this year, they’ll surely find plenty of suitors. Toronto pivoted to sign Jeff Hoffman after they failed to land Helsley, and that decision is going swimmingly so far. The Diamondbacks did not find a closer over the offseason, however, so Nightengale’s report that they have continued interest in Helsley makes plenty of sense. That’s particularly true after A.J. Puk was shelved last week due to elbow inflammation that seems likely to keep him out of action for the foreseeable future, further denting a bullpen that relied primarily on Puk and Justin Martinez to close out games.

The Phillies, meanwhile, attempted to address the losses of Hoffman and Estevez in free agency by signing non-tendered Jays closer Jordan Romano. The 32-year-old had been one of the league’s top closing pitchers not long ago, with a 2.29 ERA and two All-Star appearances between 2020 and 2023. Things changed last year, however, as Romano battled elbow inflammation and pitched to an ugly 6.59 ERA in the 15 appearances he did make. That led the Jays to non-tender Romano, and the Phillies eventually snapped him up on an $8.5MM guarantee. That deal was signed with the idea that Romano would join lefties Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm in the late innings for the Phillies this year, but things haven’t gone to plan as he’s allowed a whopping 15 runs (14 earned) in just 9 1/3 innings of work over 11 appearances.

It’s hardly a shock that such an ugly performance has inspired the Phillies to begin surveying closing possibilities on the trade market. The club’s core is continuing to age and with players like Ranger Suarez, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto set to hit free agency this winter the team could look extremely different this time next year. If 2025 proves to be the Phillies’ last opportunity to win with their current core, it would make sense to be aggressive in supplementing it this summer even as they enter play today with a relatively pedestrian 14-13 record. Adding a solid back-end reliever like Helsley, as they did when they dealt for Estevez last year, could go a long way to helping Philadelphia gear up for a playoff run in what looks to be an extremely competitive National League this year.

As sensible as the addition of a player like Helsley may be, Nightengale is quick to note that the Phillies aren’t interested in trading their very best and most impactful prospects. Specifically Nightengale writes that both Andrew Painter and Aidan Miller won’t be included in any trade, and that’s hardly a surprise given that both are well-regarded pieces with high ceilings who are already in the upper levels of the minors. It would be a shock if either of them were traded this summer and it’s almost unfathomable that either could ever be considered in a deal for a rental relief arm, even one as electric as Helsley.

Cardinals Reluctant To Make Long-Term Commitments This Winter

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The Cardinals have been among the league’s quietest teams this winter as they’ve to this point failed in their attempts to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado despite both sides preferring he play elsewhere in 2025. That difficulty in trading Arenado won’t force other cost-cutting moves according to club brass, but it does seem to have forced them to take a passive approach to the offseason with limited budget space available until and unless Arenado or another significant salary is traded. Recent comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, as reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, have further illuminated the club’s goals this winter.

During last weekend’s Winter Warmup fan event, Mozeliak told reporters that his goal for the winter has been to create a “clean slate” for incoming president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, who will replace him at the head of baseball operations when Mozeliak’s contract expires after the 2025 season. That desire to offer Bloom maximum flexibility as he takes over baseball operations has seemingly informed the club’s attempts to move Arenado. As Goold notes, Arenado is one of just three players who have a guaranteed contract in place beyond the 2025 season. The other two veterans, slugger Willson Contreras and right-hander Sonny Gray, both declined to waive their no-trade clauses earlier this winter and plan to stick in St. Louis going forward.

Aside from attempting to shed long-term commitments where possible, Goold adds that the Cardinals appear similarly reluctant to make new ones this winter. While the club is reportedly in the market for a late-inning reliever to replace Andrew Kittredge, it appears they club is hoping to avoid a longer-term agreement with a bullpen arm. That shouldn’t be too much of an obstacle given that the majority of the winter’s top relievers are already off the market and most veteran leverage relievers still available such as David Robertson, Kenley Jansen, and Tommy Kahnle are at an age where the vast majority of players are already limited to one-year offers on the open market. Filling the club’s reported desire for a right-handed bench bat who can complement a heavily left-handed lineup should be similarly easy to do on a one-year deal, as multi-year deals for projected bench players are few and far between.

Given the nature of the club’s external needs this winter, Mozeliak’s preference to avoid longer-term commitments this offseason appears likely to have more of an impact on the club’s approach to extensions. Closer Ryan Helsley, a free agent after the 2025 season, spoke candidly last weekend about the lack of extension talks between his camp and the Cardinals to this point. Meanwhile, reporting earlier this month suggested that the Cardinals were discussing a multi-year extension with utility man Brendan Donovan but no deal ultimately came together. Goold sheds some light on that situation, writing that the Cardinals have previously expressed interest in a multi-year deal with Donovan but did not “aggressively pursue” long-term deals with either him or any of the club’s other arbitration-eligible players this winter.

With one president of baseball operations finishing out the final year of his contract and his successor already both in the organization and announced as the future head of baseball ops, the Cardinals find themselves in an unusual position when it comes to committing to longer-term contracts even in the case of their own players. When asked about the possibility of extensions this offseason, Mozeliak indicated to Goold that the club remains open to conversation this spring but that Bloom would be involved in any negotiations given that he would be the person inheriting those longer-term commitments. Given that two top decision-makers would be involved in any negotiations this winter, it’s easy to imagine both sides preferring to table any extension talks until next year for players under team control beyond the 2025 season. At that point, Bloom will be fully in charge of baseball operations and have another year of direct evaluation under his belt with which he can make decisions.

Speculatively speaking, the Cardinals’ desire to provide Bloom with as much flexibility as possible when he takes over baseball operations after the 2025 season may also influence their decision to resist the idea of trading players who aren’t veterans on long-term, guaranteed deals. By keeping players with a handful of years of team control remaining like Donovan and Lars Nootbaar in the fold for 2025, Mozeliak offers Bloom the opportunity to decide whether or not the club should entertain an extension or trade for those players next winter.

Even rebuffing interest from rival clubs in players like Helsley and Erick Fedde could be a decision made in order to maximize flexibility when Bloom takes over, offering him the opportunity to extend the Qualifying Offer to either player if they turn in a sufficiently strong performance in 2025. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed the Cardinals’ “half-measure” offseason in an exclusive article for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers earlier this month, and the club’s apparent goal of maximizing the options at Bloom’s disposal when he takes over next winter could be an explanation for their apparent lack of urgency.

No Extension Talks Between Cardinals, Ryan Helsley

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Right-hander Ryan Helsley spoke to reporters about his future with the Cardinals during the club’s Winter Warmup fan event this weekend. As relayed by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Helsley indicated that he was actually under the impression he’d be getting traded this winter when the offseason began. The righty added that when his camp heard from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about six weeks after the season ended and was told the Cardinals plan to hold onto him this winter, he initially believed the call was to inform him of a trade.

Part of Helsley’s belief that he was ticketed for a trade this winter is based on the fact that there’s “never been any talk about extensions” between his camp and the Cardinals, he indicated. As noted by Jones, Helsley made clear that he would love to stay in St. Louis beyond the end of his time under team control but called negotiations a “two-way street” before adding that “if only one side wants [an extension], it’s not going to work out.”

It’s not a response that projects much confidence from Helsley about his prospects of remaining in town beyond the end of his contract. While the Cardinals have been seen as unlikely to part with Helsley on the trade market all winter even in spite of interest from rival clubs, keeping Helsley for the start of the regular season doesn’t necessarily mean that the club has interest in keeping the right-hander in the fold long-term or even that they’re opposed to considering a trade for Helsley over the summer if the club isn’t in playoff contention.

The biggest reason for the club to hold onto Helsley to open the season is that the club hopes to maintain some level of competitiveness in a relatively weak NL Central division this year. Helsley was among the best closers in baseball last season as he posted a 2.04 ERA and 2.41 FIP in 66 1/3 innings of work while collecting an MLB-best 49 saves. He struck out 29.7% of his opponents and continued to flash triple-digit velocity on his fastball. That’s the sort of dominant performance that can substantially boost a team’s odds of staying competitive, and the Cardinals don’t have a bevy of young relief arms ready to step into Helsley’s shoes the way they do with veteran hitters from the 2024 club like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Of course, another consideration is money. Helsley and the Cardinals settled at an $8.2MM salary to avoid arbitration this year. That $8.2MM, while not insignificant, would not do as much to assist the club’s goal of lowering payroll in 2025 as letting Goldschmidt (who signed for $12.5MM with the Yankees last month) depart in free agency did, to say nothing of how much more impactful trading most or all of the $60MM the Cardinals still owe Arenado over the next three seasons would be. In fact, Helsley’s impact relative to the Cardinals’ financial obligation to him arguably makes him one of the most valuable players on the team. Viewed through that lens, it’s understandable that St. Louis is planning to keep him in the fold through at least the first half of the season as they attempt to compete for a playoff spot.

Once Helsley is no longer under team control, that value calculation figures to change radically. Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader have set a new standard for elite relievers in free agency by landing deals that garnered both more than $90MM over a five-year period by measure of net present value. Helsley’s track record isn’t quite on the same level as Hader’s but even this year’s top free agent reliever, Tanner Scott, is rumored to be in line for an annual salary that could approach $20MM. If Scott, who had a dominant platform season but has a shorter track record of late-inning excellence than Helsley does, can land that sort of deal in free agency this winter it’s hard to imagine the righty not garnering a deal that at least comes close to doubling his annual salary next offseason.

That’s not the type of contract extension that would make sense for a Cardinals club that’s facing payroll constraints to offer, even before considering the uncertainty the team faces as it turns its focus towards developing younger players at the big league level. That makes it somewhat understandable for the Cardinals to not pursue an extension with Helsley at this point. After all, playing out the final year of his contract allows them to leave the door open for a midseason trade if the club is out of contention while also not stopping them from re-upping with him after the season should they believe that he’s a fit for their needs in 2026 and beyond. If the Cardinals exceed expectations and remain in the mix for a playoff spot all year, it will be much easier for them to project the level of competitiveness in 2026 necessary to make splurging on a closer of Helsley’s caliber more justifiable.

The Cardinals Are Amidst A Half-Measure Offseason

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The Cardinals have made zero trades this offseason. Two months ago, that would've been a huge surprise. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak declared at the end of the season that the team would cut MLB payroll and give consistent reps to younger players. Seven of MLBTR's Top 35 trade candidates entering the winter were Cardinals.

All of them remain Cardinals with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report. They're not all analogous situations. In at least three cases, the Cards themselves were probably taken aback. Willson Contreras told the team he had no interest in waiving his no-trade clause. Sonny Gray has also expressed an interest in staying rather than waiving his own no-trade rights. Nolan Arenado is reportedly more open to moving, though he used his no-trade clause to kill a potential trade to Houston.

Mozeliak has openly stated the organization is trying to deal Arenado. The baseball operations leader has called that the simplest way to get the team's payroll where they want it to be. That could still come together, but it has proven tougher to orchestrate than the front office seemingly envisioned. The Astros have already moved on. Other teams are reportedly balking at taking a big portion of the $64MM remaining on the third baseman's contract. Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote last week that talks on Arenado had stalled.

Those instances are beyond Mozeliak's control beyond the fact that he was willing to include no-trade clauses in Contreras' and Gray's free agent deals. (Arenado received his NTC from the Rockies when he signed his extension in 2019.) The front office probably expected those veterans would be eager to move rather than waiting out one or more transitional seasons. In that sense, the Cards are in an unenviable spot.

The most perplexing part of their offseason is that they haven't made any moves in response to those roadblocks. Their offseason has consisted of buying out Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton while claiming depth reliever Bailey Horn off waivers. That needs to change between now and Opening Day.

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Nolan Arenado Reportedly Less Likely To Be Traded

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The Nolan Arenado saga has been perhaps the main storyline of the Cardinals’ offseason. As the club looks to scale back payroll and open up playing time for younger players (Nolan Gorman, in particular), Arenado has become one of the most prominent trade candidates in the sport. His full no-trade clause, downturn at the plate since 2023 and remaining three years and $74MM ($10MM of which is being covered by the Rockies) all combine to complicate the matter, however; Arenado has already reportedly invoked that no-trade clause to nix a deal to the Astros, who pivoted in mere days and signed first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal instead (a contract nearly mirroring the $64MM they’d have owed to Arenado).

Agent Joel Wolfe said at last month’s Winter Meetings that Arenado was only open to trades to clubs where he felt he could win both in the short-term and for the remainder of his contract. It’s a bit odd that the Astros, who reached the playoffs in 2024 and reached the ALCS each season from 2017-23, didn’t fit that criteria, but there are surely multiple factors behind his decision.

Since that time, the Red Sox have been painted as the last and best hope for the Cardinals to orchestrate an Arenado trade. Even there, the situation is muddy. Acquiring Arenado would very likely mean moving Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base, where Triston Casas currently resides. Casas could see more time at DH, though the Sox are committed to Masataka Yoshida, who has three years and $54MM remaining, at that position. There’s the possibility of trading Casas, but Boston would surely need major league talent in return. It’s debatable whether they’d be better off with Arenado at third, Devers at first and whatever young talent they could get in return for Casas. Simultaneously, the Sox are considering a run at Alex Bregman (who’d also require shifting Devers to first and finding a trade for Casas or a taker for Yoshida). It’s all quite messy.

For those reasons and more, Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that he outlook on a possible Arenado deal is becoming increasingly bleak. Woo writes that efforts to move Arenado are at a “standstill” — in part because St. Louis isn’t interested in eating a notable chunk of the contract when part of their reason for wanting to move the third baseman is a desire to scale back spending. If no deal for Arenado materializes, per Woo, the Cards could look into other ways to trim payroll (and acquire young talent).

It’s quite arguable that the Cardinals should already be doing as much. The team isn’t making any efforts to improve the club for the upcoming season, after all, and the Cards are fresh off an 83-79 season. They’ve bid farewell to Kyle Gibson Lance Lynn, Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge in free agency. Absent any effort to truly push closer to contention, it’s a stretch to think the Cardinals will make massive strides within the NL Central — let alone emerge as a bona fide threat in the postseason even if they limp to a playoff berth through a good showing within a weak division.

St. Louis has plenty of appealing players who’ll be free agents after the season and could be marketed to other clubs. Starter Erick Fedde ($7.5MM), closer Ryan Helsley ($8.2MM) and to a lesser extent veteran starter Steven Matz ($12MM) would all pique the interest of other clubs. That’s also true of setup man JoJo Romero, who’s controlled only through 2026. If the Cards aren’t taking a wholehearted aim at contending in 2025 anyhow, there’s good reason to explore trades of those players in the here and now, rather than risk a downturn in value following injuries or a poor first half of the season.

Moving Fedde or Matz would thin out the current rotation depth for a club that needs innings, though there’s of course the possibility to backfill via free agency. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this week that the club still has some interest in Mizzou product Kyle Gibson, who enjoyed pitching close to home last year and played a key mentor role for many of the team’s young players. Trading Fedde for prospects, for instance, and signing Gibson to replenish those innings could bolster the long-term outlook. It might not significantly reduce payroll on its own — it may slightly increase it, in fact — but it’d benefit the long-term health of the organization. Such a trade could also be coupled with deals of Matz and/or Helsley as well. Goold notes that both Fedde and Matz have drawn interest throughout the winter, which is only logical given the soaring price of free-agent pitching.

While The Athletic and Post-Dispatch continue to caution that chances of a trade don’t look great right now — Ken Rosenthal suggested as much today on Fair Territory, as well — MLB.com and MLB Network frame things differently. John Denton wrote this week that the Red Sox could soon pull out of the Bregman bidding, which would greatly improve the chances of an Arenado trade with St. Louis. The third baseman has already formally told the club he’d green-light a deal to Boston, per Denton, and he’s talked with friend and former teammate Trevor Story about the possibility of reuniting at Fenway Park.

Further, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested on air this morning that as options have begun to dwindle, Arenado has begun to take a more open-minded approach. Some clubs that showed interest last month but didn’t pursue trades because of Arenado’s narrow list of criteria could come back into play, per Morosi. He suggests the Mariners and Tigers as two such clubs, though it’s virtually impossible to see how the Mariners could be considered a viable suitor given their well-documented financial constraints this winter.

The Tigers are a more plausible fit on paper, but they’ve spent quite conservatively under president of baseball ops Scott Harris; perhaps they’d have interest, but it’s hard to see them paying full freight on that contract, particularly when they have some third base options in house already (including top prospect Jace Jung).

Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweeted this morning that the Royals were among the teams that reached out to the Cardinals last month but didn’t pursue a trade because of a belief that Arenado wouldn’t green-light the deal. The Royals are still seeking another bat, and incumbent Maikel Garcia is a glove-first player with a lighter bat than even the recently diminished version of Arenado. Kansas City also traded its top third base prospect, Cayden Wallace, to the Nationals in last summer’s Hunter Harvey swap.

However, Arenado’s contract would figure to be quite problematic for the Royals. Beyond the $64MM total he’s owed is the fact that said commitment is front-loaded; Arenado is owed $32MM this coming season ($5MM being covered by Colorado). The Royals’ payroll is already close to $10MM higher than it was a year ago, per RosterResource. Rosenthal noted in the aforementioned Fair Territory segment (17:50 mark) that he was surprised Kansas City even eked out another $7MM to re-sign Michael Lorenzen. Piling an additional $27MM onto the payroll and pushing their Opening Day would push payroll close to or slightly north of $150MM. That’d top the current franchise record of $143MM, set back in 2017. Arenado might represent a clearer upgrade to the Royals or Mariners than to some other speculative fits, but neither seems to have the financial wherewithal to bring him aboard — even if Arenado were willing to approve the deal.

If that feels like a lot of words effectively downplaying the possibility of a trade and maintaining the status quo — well, it is. The simple reality is that Arenado was never going to be an easy player to move, and his decision to quash a trade to Houston — and the Astros’ immediate pivot — probably eliminated the best chance of the Cardinals moving him at all. Absent a new approach from the Yankees — New York offered Marcus Stroman for Arenado earlier this winter, which didn’t interest St. Louis — there’s no long-term contender with a clear need at third base and ample payroll space to take on a 34-year-old player whose bat appears to be on the decline.

Chances of a trade shouldn’t be considered dead and buried, of course. Spring injuries could always create a need for a big-payroll contender whose options at that juncture are limited. Such circumstances could prove a meaningful catalyst. Trades elsewhere on the market could alter another team’s considerations at the hot corner and spark some interest in Arenado. For now, however, it seems increasingly likely that Arenado may not have the market to facilitate a trade. If the Cardinals begrudgingly come to feel the same, it could create some fascinating ripple effects with regard to the rest of their roster.

Blue Jays, Diamondbacks Have Expressed Interest In Ryan Helsley

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As the Cardinals eye a reset focused on younger players in 2025, Mark Feinsand, John Denton, and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com report that the club has received interest from the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks regarding closer Ryan Helsley. A subsequent report from John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 confirms the interest in Helsley on the part of the D-Backs, though Gambadoro adds that the Cardinals do not appear to be interested in dealing their closer.

That apparent disinclination to deal Helsley meshes with a report from earlier this month that characterized St. Louis as unlikely to part ways with Helsley this winter, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggesting at the time that they plan on Helsley remaining with the team for 2025. Given the perennial desire for high-end relief talent at the trade deadline each summer, it stands to reason that if Helsley pitches anything like he did in 2024 (2.04 ERA, 49 saves, 29.7% strikeout rate) in the first half of 2025 the Cardinals would still be able to land quite the haul for his services in the event they aren’t in position to push for a return to the playoffs.

Given that reality, it’s perhaps not a shock that the Cardinals have seemingly set an incredibly high bar for even considering moving on from the two-time All-Star. The 30-year-old has been among the league’s most dominant relievers in recent years, with a 1.83 ERA and 82 saves to go with a 34.6% strikeout rate in 167 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2022 campaign. That sort of dominant relief profile can net an impressive return even with just one year of team control remaining, as the Brewers demonstrated when they acquired Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin from the Yankees in exchange for star closer Devin Williams.

Considering a report earlier this week suggested that the Snakes had interest in Williams before he was ultimately traded to the Yankees, it’s perhaps no surprise that Arizona has made contact with the Cardinals regarding Helsley. Club brass has made plain their goal of adding high-leverage relief help this winter following the loss of Paul Sewald to free agency. The club’s current back-end trio of Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Kevin Ginkel is a solid one, but it’s easy to see why the Diamondbacks would have interest in bumping a young arm like Martinez out of the closer role and bringing in someone more established.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, appear to be in the market for upgrades to virtually every area of their roster after a disappointing 2024 season that saw them finish dead last in the AL East. As star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters his final year of team control before free agency, Toronto appears to be focused on adding a bat to the lineup who can help offer him protection and bulking up a starting rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi to a midseason trade and stands to lose Chris Bassitt to free agency next winter. In addition to those two issues, however, it can’t be ignored that the Jays non-tendered longtime closer Jordan Romano last month and currently figure to rely on Chad Green and the recently re-signed Yimi Garcia in the late innings. Adding a more proven closer to that mix would surely help turn around a Blue Jays club that saw its relievers struggle to the second-worst ERA and the worst FIP in baseball last year.

Other options beyond Helsley exist for strengthening either club’s bullpen corps, of course. It’s unclear whether either club would spend what it takes to land a top-of-the-market closing option like Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman, but veteran closers like Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson are all available in free agency this winter and could be had on a shorter commitment. Sewald, José Leclerc, and Chris Martin are among the other relievers available who could impact a club’s late-inning mix and could be more affordable than other options available.

Cardinals Appear Unlikely To Trade Ryan Helsley

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With the Cardinals viewing next season as an opportunity to transition to a younger core, various St. Louis players jumped out as logical trade candidates. Ryan Helsley was chief among them, as the hard-throwing righty is one year from free agency. Helsley is one of the best relievers in baseball and would surely get a lot of attention on the trade market.

Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that teams in contact with the Cardinals expect St. Louis to hold their closer into next season. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak supported that notion. “(A trade is) something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have him be part of our organization,” Mozeliak told Rosenthal. That aligns with reporting from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who wrote last month that the Cards were inclined to keep Helsley unless blown away by the offers.

That stops a little short of taking him off the market entirely. It’s not quite as definitive a declaration as, say, A’s GM David Forst flatly stating they were going to keep designated hitter Brent Rooker last month. Still, it’s notable that the team’s front office leader went on record to downplay the possibility of a trade.

Helsley has had a dominant three-year run at the back of the bullpen. He broke out with a 1.25 earned run average across 64 2/3 innings in 2022. A forearm strain wiped out a few months of his ’23 campaign, but he posted a 2.45 ERA through 36 2/3 frames when able to take the mound. Helsley’s arm held up over a completely healthy season this year. He fired a career-best 66 1/3 innings with a 2.04 mark over 65 appearances.

After beginning his career in a setup role, Helsley proved himself an elite closer this past season. He led the majors with 49 saves while surrendering only four leads. He paced the National League with 62 games finished. Helsley punched out nearly 30% of opposing hitters against a tolerable 8.6% walk rate. Going back to the start of the ’22 season, he carries a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.6% strikeout percentage through 167 2/3 innings.

That level of production behind a triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would’ve made Helsley arguably the best reliever on the trade market. (One can debate whether he’s better than Milwaukee closer Devin Williams, who could be dealt before his final season of team control.) MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Helsley for a $6.9MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. That’s well below market price for a lockdown closer.

Carrying Helsley into next season would be a frankly puzzling decision. The Cardinals surely feel they’d get a ton of interest at next summer’s deadline, though there’s always the possibility of an early-season injury tanking his trade value. An offseason trade would also keep open the chance for an acquiring team to recoup draft compensation if Helsley walks in free agency. Teams can only make a qualifying offer to players they’ve had on the roster for the whole season. A team that acquires Helsley before Opening Day could make him a QO next winter; one that lands him at the deadline could not.

Qualifying offers for relievers are rare but not unheard of. Raisel Iglesias and Josh Hader declined QOs before their trips to free agency. Edwin Díaz would’ve received a QO had he not re-signed just before hitting the market. A typical Helsley season could put him in that tier. There’s enough volatility with relievers that he certainly wouldn’t be a lock for the QO, but that possibility could hold some value to other teams now and would not exist over the summer.

The Cardinals themselves could make Helsley a qualifying offer if they don’t trade him at all. Speculation about a full teardown has quieted in recent weeks. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, both of whom have no-trade clauses, are unlikely to be dealt after expressing their preference to stick around. The Cards are expected to entertain trade possibilities on Nolan Arenado. Beyond that, they could run things back with most of last year’s roster. Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Kittredge and Lance Lynn were their free agents of note.

Perhaps the Cardinals feel they can hang in the NL Central mix if they get a few internal improvements. There’s still a decent amount of talent on a roster that finished above .500 at 83-79 this year. Winning the division would be a long shot unless they’re active in free agency, but they seem to be willing to at least see how things play out in the season’s first couple months.

The Cardinals’ Trio Of Bullpen Trade Candidates

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The Cardinals’ direction is one of the key storylines of the offseason. The franchise has made clear they’re prioritizing the future while giving more playing time to young players in 2025. They’ve pushed back on initial chatter about a complete teardown, at least in part because a couple veterans with no-trade clauses prefer to see things through in St. Louis.

Even if they’re not in a complete rebuild, the Cardinals should gauge interest on players with limited windows of contractual control. That’s especially true in the bullpen. Their star closer will get the most calls from other teams, but St. Louis has a few relievers who could come up in talks. Projected salaries are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

  • Ryan Helsley (eligible for arbitration through 2025, $6.9MM projected salary)

The Cards are down to one year of control over Helsley. If they’re not all-in for 2025, he should move either this winter or at next summer’s deadline. An offseason deal would give an acquiring team a few extra months of Helsley’s services and allow them to consider a qualifying offer when he hits free agency.

Katie Woo of the Athletic wrote last week that the Cardinals were already receiving quite a bit of interest. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested the Cards may need to be “overwhelmed” to deal the righty, but they should be able to weigh multiple compelling offers.

Helsley is among the best few relievers in MLB. He’s coming off three straight fantastic seasons. Helsley broke out with a 1.25 earned run average across 64 2/3 innings in 2022. A forearm strain wiped out a few months of his ’23 campaign, but he posted a 2.45 ERA through 36 2/3 frames when able to take the mound. Helsley’s arm held up over a completely healthy season this year. He fired a career-best 66 1/3 innings with a 2.04 mark over 65 appearances.

After beginning his career in a setup role, Helsley proved himself an elite closer this past season. He led the majors with 49 saves while surrendering only four leads. He paced the National League with 62 games finished. Helsley punched out nearly 30% of opposing hitters against a tolerable 8.6% walk rate. Going back to the start of the ’22 season, he carries a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.6% strikeout percentage through 167 2/3 innings.

Helsley has the kind of overpowering arsenal teams want in the late innings. His four-seam fastball sits above 99 MPH. Opponents had a surprising amount of success against that heater this year, but the ability to reach back for triple digit heaters makes it tough for hitters to adjust to his wipeout slider. Opponents whiffed on more than half their swings against the Helsley slider in 2024. He got swinging strikes at a 17.3% clip overall, a top 15 mark among relievers with at least 20 innings.

Alongside Devin Williams, Helsley is one of this winter’s top two bullpen trade candidates. He’d fit for any contender. Teams that already have a closer could push him into the eighth inning. Clubs like the Phillies, Rangers and Red Sox have seen their closers hit free agency. The Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Royals and Diamondbacks are other potential suitors.

  • JoJo Romero (eligible for arbitration through 2026, $1.9MM projected salary)

Romero has had a nice two-plus year run at Busch Stadium. Acquired from the Phillies at the 2022 deadline for utility player Edmundo Sosa, Romero has emerged as skipper Oli Marmol’s top lefty reliever. He has posted consecutive seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA, turning in a career-best 3.36 mark through 59 innings this year.

There are some concerns. After striking out 28.6% of batters faced in 2023, he posted a middling 21% strikeout rate this year. Romero had a much more difficult time missing bats within the zone in 2024. That’s an issue for a pitcher who has never excelled at getting batters to chase off the plate. Romero has intriguing stuff, pairing a 94 MPH sinker with a slider and changeup. The breaking ball is by far his best offering and served as the putaway pitch for 40 of his 51 strikeouts this year.

As one might expect given that profile, Romero has been much better against same-handed hitters. Lefties have a .172/.267/.270 slash against him in his career, while right-handed hitters have teed off at a .280/.337/.472 clip. His 2024 platoon splits are just as extreme. Romero might be best suited for a situational role, but perhaps another team feels there’s a tweak they can make to get better production against righty hitters. While Romero has increased the usage on his slider in every season since 2021, he still only used it about a third of the time this year.

Romero finished the year on the injured list due to forearm inflammation. The Cardinals announced that he isn’t expected to require surgery and should have a normal offseason. Assuming that’s the case, he should attract interest.

John King (eligible for arbitration through 2027, $1.5MM projected salary)

The 30-year-old King isn’t as well known as Helsley or Romero, but he’s coming off a nice season. The southpaw turned in a 2.85 ERA through a career-high 60 innings spanning 56 appearances. King is a pure ground-ball specialist. He kept the ball on the ground at a massive 61.7% rate this year and has a career rate just north of 62%. Among the 160 relievers who threw at least 50 innings, only three (Tim Hill, Clay Holmes and Yennier Cano) had a higher grounder percentage.

King doesn’t miss bats, but he’s a situational lefty who should appeal to teams looking to deepen their middle relief group. (The Yankees make for a speculative fit considering New York’s love of relievers with plus grounder rates.) King is cheaply controllable for another three seasons and has held left-handed batters to a .250/.300/.320 slash over 308 career plate appearances. While the Cardinals aren’t under any contractual pressure to deal him, this isn’t the type of player that St. Louis would refuse to entertain in trade talks. If the Cards could pull a mid-level prospect or two, King could be on the move.

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The Cards have two other bullpen arms who’d attract interest, though they’re less likely to move. Rule 5 pick Ryan Fernandez had a strong rookie season. With five more years of team control, St. Louis probably prefers to hold him in a leverage role. Former top prospect Matthew Liberatore looks to have found a home in relief. He’s also still controllable for five seasons. The Cardinals aren’t likely to find an offer that pushes them to move the 25-year-old southpaw this early in his career.

Cardinals To Part Ways With Paul Goldschmidt, Could Reduce Payroll This Winter

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The Cardinals do not plan on bringing veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025, according to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Goldschmidt is scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, and while the club had previously been rumored to have interest in bringing him back for 2025, it now appears the club will part ways with the future Hall of Famer. For his part, Goldschmidt has made clear that he plans to continue his career into 2025.

Goldschmidt isn’t the only player expected to depart this offseason. According to Woo, it’s unlikely that any of the club’s pending free agents will return to the club next year as the club pivots towards a focus on bolstering its player development apparatus. Woo specifically noted that relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton are expected to land elsewhere this winter, though she emphasized it was not yet clear whether veteran starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are included in the expected exodus. St. Louis holds identical $12MM club options on the duo’s services for next year, each with a $1MM buyout.

Woo also notes that a reduction to the major league payroll could be on the horizon as the club reinvests in player development, echoing a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale early today that indicated the Cardinals could shop veteran right-hander Sonny Gray as they look to cut payroll. Woo did not explicitly suggest that Gray will be shopped, but did list the right-hander among a handful of veteran Cardinals players whose futures with the club could be put “into question” by a drop in payroll this winter alongside third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and closer Ryan Helsley. MLBTR discussed Gray’s potential trade candidacy earlier today in conjunction with Nightengale’s report, which noted the Reds as a potential suitor for the veteran’s services.

If the Cardinals are going to look at shopping Gray this winter amid an effort to reduce payroll, it’s only natural that the club could entertain offers on a number of other high-priced veterans as well. Contreras, in particular, could be a sensible candidate for the club to move this winter. The 32-year-old backstop has been nothing short of phenomenal with the bat since he joined the Cardinals prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing an impressive .263/.367/.468 (133 wRC+) in 209 games with St. Louis as he’s sustained the offense breakout he enjoyed during his final season with the Cubs in 2022.

With that being said, not everything has gone well for Contreras since he joined the club. The veteran was temporarily moved off of catcher after just six weeks in the organization, only to be reinstated as the Cubs regular catcher shortly thereafter. Per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Contreras was worth -3 runs behind the plate last year that was his worst figure since 2019. Those defensive struggles behind the plate led the club’s coaches to suggest Contreras move closer to the plate while catching. The strategy seems to have worked to improve his defense at the position as his FRV improved to +0 this year, but it came at a substantial cost as the veteran suffered an arm fracture that required surgery earlier this year after being struck by a swing from Mets DH J.D. Martinez.

Given the Cardinals’ concerns regarding Contreras’s defense, the $54.5MM due to him over the next three seasons, and the presence of up-and-coming youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages ready to take on larger roles in the majors, it would hardly be a surprise if the Cardinals decided to listen to offers on the veteran catcher this offseason. Given his success at the plate over the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that teams would have interest in the veteran’s services even if they joined in St. Louis’s suspicions regarding his defense behind the plate, as he could move to a first base or DH role fairly seamlessly if an acquiring club wanted to make such a switch. Of course, it’s also possible that there’s a club that either believes they can improve Contreras’s defense or is willing to sacrifice defensive value behind the plate in order to fit a middle-of-the-order bat into its lineup and would be happy to employ Contreras as a catcher as well.

Arenado, on the other hand, could be trickier for the club to move in the event they shop him. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer opted in for the final five years and $144MM of his contract with the club prior to the 2023 season in a move that, at the time, was somewhat surprising. With that being said, the third baseman hasn’t looked like the MVP candidate he was earlier in his career over the two seasons since then. In 296 games with St. Louis over the past two seasons, Arenado has hit just .269/.320/.426. That’s still good for an above-average 104 wRC+ and, in conjunction with his strong but no longer elite defense at third base, has been good for 5.8 fWAR total over the past two years.

While that level of production still casts Arenado as a clearly valuable player even as he enters his mid 30s, it’s easy to imagine rival clubs balking at the idea of giving up significant prospect capital while also taking on the remaining three years and $74MM left on Arenado’s deal with the club, though it’s worth noting that the Rockies are paying down $5MM of that figure per year to reduce the total burden to just $59MM over three seasons.

Another factor that can’t be ignored is that Arenado, Contreras, and Gray all have full no-trade clauses at present, meaning any of them could block trades to any teams that they wish. That’s not necessarily always an obstacle to a trade, as players with no-trade protection will often waive those rights in the event that their teams wants to move on, but it does offer each veteran significant leverage in the event that the Cardinals look to move on from any of them. That leverage could be used to ensure they get traded to a preferred organization or in order to get additional financial incentives in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, as Arenado did when he agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Rockies to the Cardinals in exchange for an additional year and $15MM added to the end of his contract.

None of those considerations apply to Helsley, who is set to go through arbitration for the third and final time this winter. He’s sure to garner a substantial raise over his $3.8MM salary from the 2024 season after a phenomenal year that’s seen the 30-year-old pitch to a 2.04 ERA (207 ERA+) with an eye-popping 38.2% strikeout rate and an MLB-best 49 saves in 66 1/3 innings of work this year. It’s the third consecutive dominant season for the righty, as he’s now posted a combined 1.83 ERA (227 ERA+) with a 2.35 FIP and 225 strikeouts and 82 saves in 167 2/3 innings of work since he broke out back in 2021.

Helsley should still come at a reasonable financial cost even after accounting for the pay bump he figures to receive this winter, and with a commitment of just one year it’s likely he could be among the most sought-after relief arms on the market this winter if the Cardinals were to make him available. With that being said, Helsley’s utter dominance this season and relatively affordable salary could mean that the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their closer if they hope to remain competitive in 2025, particularly since he would likely be almost as valuable at the trade deadline next summer so long as he remains healthy and effective.

Circling back to Goldschmidt, the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer is now slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career come November. He’ll do some coming off the worst season of his career, having hit just .245/.301/.412 with a wRC+ of 99 in 153 games this year while setting a career high strikeout rate and a career low walk rate. That brutal platform campaign in conjunction with his age will surely keep Goldschmidt from garnering anything close to what top-of-the-class first basemen like Pete Alonso or even Christian Walker will in free agency this winter, but there’s still enough reason for optimism in his profile to imagine a club with a hole at first base giving the veteran an everyday job.

After all, he’s just two seasons removed from winning the NL MVP award with a dominant offensive performance, and it’s also worth noting that he improved as the season went on. From May 12 onward, Goldschmidt hit a respectable .262/.309/.462 with a 113 wRC+ in 491 trips to the plate. While that’s a far cry from the perennial All-Star he once was, even that level of production would be good for 13th among qualified first basemen this year, ahead of even well-regarded regulars like Ryan Mountcastle and Vinnie Pasquantino.

Orioles Could Pursue Closing Help At Deadline

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The Orioles lead the American League with a 26-13 record, putting them half a game above the Yankees at the top of the AL East. Baltimore again looks like one of the best teams in the league and is trending towards buying at the deadline.

One area that could be a priority this summer: fortifying the back of the bullpen. Baltimore lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery last fall. They signed Craig Kimbrel — their only major league free agent pickup of the winter — to a $13MM deal to solidify the ninth inning. That hasn’t worked out quite the way the front office envisioned. Kimbrel has run into recent struggles that put his status as closer into question.

Baltimore used Kimbrel in the seventh inning in last Friday’s win over the Diamondbacks. Manager Brandon Hyde was noncommittal after that game about whether that signified a permanent role change for the nine-time All-Star. The O’s haven’t had a save situation since then, though they used Yennier Cano in the top of the ninth in a tied game (a situation in which a team typically calls on its closer) on Saturday. Kimbrel threw a scoreless 11th inning in that contest and got the win when the Orioles walked off in the bottom half.

There are more than two months for Kimbrel to pitch his way back into the ninth inning before the deadline. Still, the situation is flexible enough that the Orioles could consider alternatives if the veteran’s performance remains uneven. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend the O’s will monitor the status of established closers like Jordan Romano, Ryan Helsley and Ryan Pressly.

All three players are theoretical deadline trade possibilities, although they’re each on teams that entered the season expecting to contend. The Blue Jays are four games under .500 and sit last in the AL East. The Cardinals are at the bottom of the NL Central with a 16-24 record. At 15-25, the Astros have an even worse mark, though they’re at least ahead of the Angels in their division.

None of those clubs are going to start moving veteran players anytime soon. Houston GM Dana Brown recently shot down the possibility of selling in any capacity, although it seems likely the team would reconsider that approach if they remain well below .500 in July. All three are veteran-laden teams that surely won’t pivot to selling unless it’s clear they don’t have a path back to competing this year, though.

Romano, 31, has operated as Toronto’s closer for the last three seasons. He’s a two-time All-Star who has saved 36 games in consecutive years. Romano hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs per nine in any of the past three seasons. He opened this year on the injured list with elbow inflammation. He was reinstated in mid-April and has worked at his typical velocity (96.5 MPH fastball, 86.4 MPH slider). Romano is playing on a $7.75MM salary and is under arbitration control for one more season.

Helsley is also arbitration controlled through 2025. He’s making $3.8MM this year for the Cardinals. The 29-year-old has been one of the game’s most effective relievers on a rate basis going back to 2022. Helsley owns a 1.65 ERA with a massive 36.5% strikeout rate in 120 1/3 innings over the past two-plus seasons. The power righty pairs a fastball that averages more than 99 MPH with an upper-80s slider. After missing a good chunk of the 2023 campaign to a forearm strain, Helsley has been healthy this season. He has allowed just three earned runs with 21 strikeouts and two walks over 19 innings.

Things have been more rocky for Pressly, who has surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) in his first 14 1/3 frames. The 35-year-old righty has managed 22 strikeouts with six free passes, though, and he’s keeping the ball on the ground more than half the time an opponent makes contact. Those secondary marks and Pressly’s career track record should lead to plenty of interest if the Astros get to a point where they’d seriously consider moving him at the deadline. Pressly has worked in a setup capacity to Josh Hader this year; he saved more than 30 games in each of the last two seasons.

From a financial perspective, Pressly would be a costlier add than either Romano or Helsley. He’s playing on a $14MM salary and has a matching option for 2025 that would vest if he appears in 50 games this season. He’s at 16 appearances already and looks well on track to triggering that option barring a notable injury.

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