NL Notes: Giants, Mattingly, Stanton, Braves, Schu
Giants executive Brian Sabean discussed his organization’s chief needs recently with reporters including MLB.com’s Chris Haft. While the team is facing a difficult situation with regard to payroll — both in 2018 and beyond — Sabean says there’s urgency to improve in several areas. “Center field needs to be upgraded,” he said. “We have to find an everyday third baseman. And we have to be resourceful in how we reconstruct the bullpen.” Those are the primary spots that seem in need of improvement from the outside; truly getting better, though, will require some combination of creativity and tough tradeoffs.
Here’s more from the National League:
- The Marlins have confirmed that Don Mattingly will, as expected, be back as manager, as Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel writes. The veteran skipper is under contract, as president of baseball operations Michael Hill noted, but the organization had not yet made clear in the midst of an ownership change that he would retain his role. (Of course, it would have rated as a big surprise had the team suddenly gone in a different direction at this point in the offseason.) Mattingly has said he’s excited to get underway with the new ownership group led by fellow Yankees legend Derek Jeter, but it’s yet to be seen just what kind of roster he’ll have to work with.
- Speaking of notable possible roster changes, Hill has held a conversation with Giancarlo Stanton, Healey reports, but the Marlins are understandably keeping things close to the vest. Expectations remain that the club will slash salary through some significant trades; Hill acknowledged that things haven’t gone as hoped of late and says the goal is to “build a sustainable, consistent, productive major league organization.” Stanton’s massive contract and excellent 2017 season seemingly make him a rather obvious trade piece, and we took a look earlier today at some teams that could line up on paper for Stanton, but his no-trade clause gives him quite a lot of say in a future destination.
- We’re still waiting to hear about league punishments for the Braves slate of alleged amateur signing transgressions, and it seems the wait will take a while longer. A decision is expected sometime between the GM Meetings and Winter Meetings, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s likely that word won’t come down until December, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick adds on Twitter. Interestingly, though, Sherman says that the organization could end up making a front office decision before the commisioner’s office acts. Indeed, the team has been “quietly interviewing” some potential candidates that could join the front office in some capacity, per Sherman, who adds that the preference remains to seek a reunion with Royals GM Dayton Moore — who hasn’t been allowed to speak with the Atlanta organization to this point.
- The Giants have hired Rick Schu as their assistant hitting coach, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Schu, a former big league third baseman, had served as the Nationals’ hitting coach since 2013 but was among the personnel allowed to seek other opportunities after the Nats decided not to retain Dusty Baker. Washington ended up hiring Kevin Long as its new hitting coach.
Free Agent Rumors: Holland, Bruce, LoMo, Hosmer, Morrow, Ichiro
Though Greg Holland turned down his $15MM player option and will also reject his $17.4MM qualifying offer, it’s not yet a foregone conclusion that his Denver days are in the past, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Rockies “believe that Holland is the right leader” for their young pitching staff and will seek to re-sign him to a more lucrative multi-year offer, per Heyman. They will, of course, face a fair bit of competition in that pursuit. Heyman lists the Cubs and Cardinals as teams that will possibly be in the market for Holland this offseason as well.
A few more early notes on the free agent market…
- Jay Bruce‘s camp is reportedly setting its sights high and asking for a five-year deal worth $80-90MM, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported yesterday. High asking price notwithstanding, Heyman reports today in his weekly notes column that the Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners and Cardinals are four potential landing spots for Bruce in free agency. Heyman notes that Bruce should be able to comfortably land a three-year commitment that could price him out of the comfort zones of the Mets and the Indians.
- Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison told Jon Morosi and Jim Duquette in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that playing for his hometown Royals “would be a dream come true.” (Twitter link, with audio) Morrison fondly recalls trips to Kauffman Stadium with his father as a child and says it would be “amazing” to be able to have his grandmother come to the park and watch him play regularly in 2018. “All of that stuff would be fun,” said Morrison, “but we’ll see what happens.” The 30-year-old Morrison, meanwhile, hit .246/.353/.516 with a career-high 38 home runs in a breakout campaign with Tampa Bay this past season. Despite that huge year, he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Rays and therefore won’t be tied to draft pick compensation. Kansas City will have a void at first base if Eric Hosmer leaves elsewhere, though Heyman notes in the aforementioned notes column that Hosmer is still the Royals’ top priority (at least among their own impending free agents). If he signs elsewhere, the Royals would recoup a draft pick — likely at the end of the first round.
- Right-hander Brandon Morrow also appeared on MLB Network Radio today, stating that “all things being equal,” he’d prefer to return to the Dodgers (Twitter link, with audio). Morrow specified that at age 33, he’d prefer to sign with a contending team, noting that he doesn’t necessarily care about pitching as a closer versus pitching in a setup capacity. Morrow raved about the young talent and clubhouse on the Dodgers, noting that the team is poised to be a contender for years to come — a highly appealing factor to him (and other free agents). Though perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into his comments, Morrow did note that “to be able to hopefully in that for three to four years … it’s definitely an attractive situation.” Morrow does indeed seem to have a strong case for a multi-year deal after a return to prominence in L.A. this past season. We pegged him for a three-year, $24MM contract on last week’s ranking of the game’s top 50 free agents.
- Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Ichiro Suzuki‘s agent, John Boggs, has already reached out to the Athletics to try to pitch his client’s services. Slusser the chat between the two sides as “brief,” noting that it was based on Ichiro’s relationship with A’s manager Bob Melvin, who managed Ichiro more than a decade ago. There does not appear to be a fit, she notes, though Boggs tells Slusser that Ichiro “has the ultimate desire to play” in 2018. Heyman noted in the aforementioned notes column that the Marlins did not make an offer to the 44-year-old Ichiro before declining his $2MM option.
Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.
[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]
Cubs
The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis. The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.
Cardinals
The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn. Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.
Royals
The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas. The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient. If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round. For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.
Rays
The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians. However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation. The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round. If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.
Rockies
The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians. Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency. If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round. If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.
Indians
The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies. Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.
So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76. The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.
Royals Hire New Coaches To Round Out Staff
The Royals have completed their coaching staff with a slate of new hires, per a team announcement (h/t MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan; Twitter links). Kansas City has shaken up manager Ned Yost’s staff a bit as the organization enters an offseason of no little uncertainty.
Terry Bradshaw has been hired as the new hitting coach. Last year’s hitting coach, Dale Sveum, was shifted to the bench coach role after the Royals parted ways with Don Wakamatsu. Previously, Bradshaw served as the K.C. organization’s minor-league hitting coordinator.
On the pitching side, Cal Eldred will run the staff as the pitching coach. Last year, the position was held by Dave Eiland, who was among the coaches that were not retained at season’s end. Eldred, a veteran big league hurler, had served as a special assistant in the Cardinals and Royals front offices.
Vance Wilson, a former big league catcher and recent minor-league skipper for the Royals, will serve as the new bullpen coach. Meanwhile, Pedro Grifol is set to function in a new role as quality control coach after previously serving as the catching coach. The Royals will also shift Mitch Maier to the first base coach’s box, per Flanagan.
Heyman’s Latest: Kapler, Hosmer, Kennedy, Werth, Ibanez, Bell
The Phillies‘ choice of Gabe Kapler as manager has drawn mixed reviews from around the game, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman writes, as Kapler’s unique approaches to baseball have brought him praise as an innovative thinker but also led to clashes with some players and personnel within the Dodgers organization. It should be noted that this didn’t extend to Dodgers front office heads Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi, both of whom are big fans of Kapler and made calls to the Mets and Phillies recommending him for their managerial openings. The Dodgers themselves almost hired Kapler as manager two years ago, though the fact that some players reportedly lobbied the team to instead go with Dave Roberts also stands out as a possible red flag. The article is well worth a full read to get a sense of the criticisms lobbied against Kapler, and why the Phillies’ hire “may be the biggest gamble of the winter.”
Some more from Heyman, as per his latest collection of notes from around baseball…
- The Royals‘ pursuit of Eric Hosmer could decide their immediate future, as the team could decide to forego re-signing any of their other free agents and rebuild if Hosmer can’t be brought back into the fold. It will take a sizeable offer to re-sign Hosmer, however, and while K.C. has been willing to spend to keep is championship window open, “their payroll is starting to press the limits.”
- Ian Kennedy won’t exercise his opt-out clause, and will remain with the Royals for the three years and $49MM remaining on his contract. While no official announcement has come from Kennedy or the team, the decision is an unsurprising one given the righty’s subpar season. Kennedy said himself in September that “it would be pretty stupid” to head into free agency on the heels of an injury-hampered year that saw Kennedy post a 5.38 ERA over 154 innings.
- Jayson Werth could potentially return to the Nationals on a one-year deal. Werth was hitting a solid .262/.367/.446 through his first 196 PA before missing almost three months due to a fracture in his left foot. He still seemed bothered by the injury after his return, leading to subpar numbers down the stretch. The Nats could conceivably use Adam Eaton as both a left fielder and center fielder next year, opening up playing time for Werth or Michael Taylor to fill whatever position Eaton isn’t occupying on any given day.
- Raul Ibanez was seen as a potentially strong contender to become the Yankees‘ next manager, though Ibanez reportedly likes his current position with the Dodgers (special advisor to Andrew Friedman) and doesn’t want to leave. Yankees GM Brian Cashman reportedly has 20-25 names on his list of managerial candidates.
- Newly-hired Giants VP of player development David Bell could potentially be a candidate to eventually take over the manager’s job from Bruce Bochy. Bell previously worked on the Cardinals’ and Cubs’ coaching staffs and worked as a manager in the Reds’ farm system, not to mention his 12-year career as a player. Bench coach Hensley Meulens has also been often cited as Bochy’s heir apparent. Bochy’s current contract runs through the 2019 season, and while his track record has likely given him the job as long as he wants, he also turns 63 in April and has dealt with some health issues in recent years.
Qualifying Offer Rumors: Saturday
The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.
While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. The Rockies dropped a QO on Michael Cuddyer in 2014, for example, while the Nationals decided against giving one to Edwin Jackson back in the QO’s first year of operation (2012), only to see him sign a four-year deal with the Cubs.
Here’s the latest chatter from around the game:
- The Royals, unsurprisingly, will issue qualifying offers to each of their three major free agents, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain each feature prominently on MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 free agents — indeed, all are rated among the seven most valuable players on the open market — so it’s hardly surprising to learn that K.C. is going in this direction. That said, there had been at least some suggestion that the team had yet to decide on Cain, who is a fair bit older than the other two departing core members of the Royals’ memorable 2014-15 teams. He still figures to be in high demand as the best-available center field on the upcoming market. All told, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where any of these three players accepts the qualifying offer, meaning that the Royals ought to be lined up for a nice haul of draft picks once the dust settles. (Of course, it’s also still possible that one or even more than one of these players will return to Kansas City, in which case no draft compensation would be triggered for that player.)
Mike Minor To Decline Mutual Option
Left-hander Mike Minor has declined his half of a $10MM mutual option and is now a free agent, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (via Twitter). He’ll receive a buyout of $1.25MM as part of the two-year, $7.25MM contract he inked with Kansas City prior to the 2016 campaign. The Royals have interest in re-signing Minor as their closer moving forward, he adds, but he’ll first have the opportunity to gauge interest from other clubs now that he’s hitting the open market.
Minor, 30 in December, missed the 2015 season due to shoulder surgery but landed a two-year pact in Kansas City, as they expected that he’d be ready to return to the mound as a rotation option in the first half of the 2016 campaign. However, lingering effects of that shoulder procedure kept Minor from taking the mound in the Majors at all in 2016.
Though he didn’t make good on the first year of that two-year pact, Minor nonetheless proved to be an immense bargain. Healthy in 2017, Minor shifted to the bullpen and climbed the ranks in the Royals’ relief corps, beginning with low-leverage innings but eventually serving as the team’s closer late in the year.
Minor was a genuine weapon working as a reliever. In 77 2/3 innings he averaged 10.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 with a 42.4 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.55 ERA. Minor allowed just five homers all season and was utterly dominant against left-handed opponents (.161/.228/.196) while also rendering right-handed bats largely useless (.221/.281/.383). That performance made the decision to walk away from a potential $10MM salary in 2018 (a net of $8.75MM for Minor when factoring in the buyout) an easy one, as Minor should have no problem handily topping that mark in free agency.
While some clubs will undoubtedly have some trepidation about the fact that Minor missed a pair of seasons following a shoulder operation, he showed no ill effects in 2017 and should be poised to command a strong multi-year deal. Bullpen help is in demand for all 30 teams each offseason, and left-handed relievers that can dominate both left- and right-handed hitters alike are rare commodities. That Minor exhibited an ability to work multiple innings throughout the year is a strong point in his favor as teams gravitate further away from rigid, one-inning relief roles.
Minor figures to draw interest both as a closer and as a setup option for teams that already have strict closers in place. He could also find some interest from clubs that are intrigued by plugging him back into the rotation, but he’d almost certainly be leaving money on the table right now by rolling the dice on a return a starting role. Whatever contract he signs may contain some incentives based on starts and total innings if that’s a route he’s interested in pursuing, but more than half the teams in the league will probably be interested in adding Minor to their bullpen. That’s the best route for him to maximize his earning power, which figures to be substantial. We ranked Minor 18th on yesterday’s Top 50 Free Agent list and pegged him for a four-year deal just south of Brett Cecil‘s $30.5MM pact in St. Louis.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Central Notes: Morneau, Lenik, Bell
Veteran first baseman Justin Morneau isn’t calling it quits yet, officially, but it sounds as if he has largely accepted that he likely won’t suit up again in the majors. In the course of a great chat on the podcast of Ben Nicholson-Smith and Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca (audio link), Morneau says it seemed at points last spring and even into the season that he might have a shot at joining an organization. Ultimately, though, things simply “didn’t line up” for the 36-year-old, who says he wasn’t really “willing to go down to Triple-A and ride the bus” at this stage, given his family obligations. A 14-year MLB veteran, Morneau long starred with the Twins and played most recently with the White Sox. Though he showed in 2016 that he can still hit major league pitching, he acknowledges that it “doesn’t look like there’s a lot of opportunities” out there for the coming season. (That’s a topic that’s covered further in the podcast, which is well worth a listen.)
Here are some notes from the central divisions:
- The Royals face a variety of challenges this winter, with a need to bolster the bullpen likely among them. But the team does have an intriguing option on hand in indy ball find Kevin Lenik, writes Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. The 26-year-old is showing a big fastball and generated strong results upon reaching Triple-A, where he pitched to a 1.88 ERA with 24 strikeouts and eight walks over 24 frames in a dozen outings. Assistant GM J.J. Picollo suggests it’s likely (albeit still undecided) that Lenik will receive an invitation to MLB camp.
- Buddy Bell has left the White Sox front office to join that of the Reds, as Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune reports. Bell had served as an assistant GM in Chicago and will now function as a senior advisor to top Reds baseball decisionmaker Dick Williams. A long-time big leaguer and former MLB skipper, Bell drew kind words from White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf on his way out the door. As Kuc notes, Bell has roots in Cincinnati and figures to make for a valuable addition to the organization’s front office.
Royals Deny Braves Permission To Interview Dayton Moore
SATURDAY: The chances of Moore going to the Braves aren’t completely dead, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggests. If Hart loses his hold on the Braves’ baseball operations, it could pave the way for the team to pursue Moore in earnest, according to O’Brien. The “belief among some observers” is that the Royals would be willing to let Moore head to Atlanta if they’re adequately compensated, O’Brien reports.
FRIDAY: Royals owner David Glass denied a request from the Braves to interview GM Dayton Moore for Atlanta’s own top front office position, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports. Moore is under contract with Kansas City through at least the 2018 season and thus permission was required for an interview. Such permission is often granted if a promotion is being offered, though that wasn’t the case here since Moore already holds a job atop a team’s baseball operations depth chart.
The exact nature of what job the Braves were offering is of particular note, as John Hart is still Atlanta’s president of baseball operations. Hart’s future, however, is up in the air due to the ongoing investigation about international signing improprieties within the Braves front office. The investigation has also now extended into looking into alleged violations regarding the amateur draft — Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan detailed some of the complaints leveled against former GM John Coppolella in regards to pre-draft agreements.
Coppolella and international scouting director Gordon Blakely both resigned their positions earlier this month, and Hart’s own contract is up after the World Series is over. It could be that Braves upper management decides to move on with an entirely new front office, regardless of what MLB’s investigation does or doesn’t report about Hart, and thus Atlanta would be able to offer Moore the full control that he has reportedly demanded if he were to change jobs. Though Moore and other names have been connected to their front office opening, the Braves have yet to conduct any interviews with candidates, perhaps due to the uncertainty over Hart. This is just my speculation, but it could also be the case that Moore was the Braves’ top choice, and they’ll now move onto secondary candidates since Glass has denied them a chance to speak to Moore.
Adding an experienced, championship-winning executive like Moore would go a long way towards settling the tumult within the Atlanta organization, particularly given Moore’s past ties to the Braves. For his part, however, Moore has stated that he is happy with the Royals, and reiterated to Crasnick that “I’m focused on what we need to do here in Kansas City.” While the Royals appear to be heading into a rebuild, Moore may also prefer the relative stability of his current position rather than join a Braves franchise that may be hit with some severe penalties, pending the results of the league’s investigation.
Central Notes: Twins, Cubs, Tilson, Royals
Carl Willis’ name has been oft-mentioned in the Twins‘ search for a new pitching coach, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The 56-year-old Willis has held that same position with the Red Sox since the 2015 campaign, but Boston’s coaching staff under now-former manager John Farrell was given the opportunity to explore opportunities with other teams. Willis is no stranger to the Twins organization, as he spent five seasons pitching for Minnesota in the early 90s and enjoyed a career year with the World Champion ’91 Twins. Heyman also notes that the Twins have interviewed former Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey, but Hickey’s ties to Cubs skipper Joe Maddon are strong. The Cubs also have a pitching coach vacancy after dismissing Chris Bosio following their exit from the NLCS.
More from baseball’s Central divisions…
- Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein recently spoke about the team’s 2018 rotation and acknowledged a need, writes CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney. Epstein characterized left-hander Mike Montgomery as someone who will likely stretch out as a starter in Spring Training but “probably start the year in the bullpen” barring spring injuries. “And then at the end of the regular season, when you look up, he’ll have somewhere between 10 and 20 starts. And you’ll say: ‘Wow, Mike Montgomery was really valuable this year,'” said Epstein. As for splurging on the free-agent market, Epstein was non-committal when discussing a pursuit of Yu Darvish or a reunion with Jake Arrieta. “…I wouldn’t rule it out completely, and I wouldn’t rule it in,” said Epstein of pursuing a high-priced free-agent pitcher. “I would just say it’s not our preferred method.”
- Ankle surgery has not yet been firmly ruled out for White Sox center fielder Charlie Tilson, writes Scot Gregor for Baseball America (subscription required and recommended). Tilson has been beset by injuries since being acquired from the Cardinals in exchange for Zach Duke in a 2016 deadline deal. He tore his hamstring in his MLB debut with the ChiSox in Aug. 2016, and he missed the 2017 campaign after suffering an offseason stress fracture in his right foot and a broken right ankle in June. Tilson was at last able to play in the instructional league this month, and he tells Gregor that those games were a “test” for the health of his right foot. “There’s always surgical possibilities, but I’m just trying to take it a day at a time and keep doing the things that are working for me,” said Tilson. He’ll have some new competition next spring, as Adam Engel and Leury Garcia will be in Chicago’s center field mix as well.
- The Royals have been discussing contingency plans for the potential departure of Eric Hosmer and/or Mike Moustakas, writes MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. One possibility is for prospect Hunter Dozier to slide across the diamond from third base to first base, with Cheslor Cuthbert manning the hot corner. Dozier has seen occasional time at first base in recent seasons and could see some additional time there playing winter ball in Mexico, though assistant GM J.J. Picollo tells Flanagan that Dozier’s goal in winter ball is just to get as many at-bats as possible regardless of position. If Hosmer and Moustakas do depart, it’s also possible that Cuthbert could play first next year with Dozier playing his natural third base, says Picollo, calling it “a matter of how we line up best defensively.”