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Cesar Hernandez

Tigers, Cesar Hernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers and veteran infielder Cesar Hernandez are in agreement on a minor league contract, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Octagon client will be invited to major league camp this spring. If Hernandez makes the roster, he’ll earn a $1.5MM base salary with the potential to unlock more via incentives, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press adds.

Hernandez spent the 2022 season with the Nationals but struggled to the worst offensive performance of his decade-long MLB career, batting just .248/.311/.318 in 617 plate appearances. Hernandez, who’ll turn 33 in May, surprisingly connected on only one home run with the Nationals — despite having swatted a career-high 21 long balls a year prior. Dating back to 2018, Hernandez had averaged 14 homers per 600 plate appearances, making last year’s power outage particularly unexpected.

Defensively, Hernandez has traditionally been a second baseman, although the Nats gave him some time at third base and in left field last year. Hernandez posted roughly average defensive grades at second base in 2019-20 before seeing metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average agree that his glovework at the position had swiftly declined, beginning in 2021. Both DRS and OAA felt he was average or better in limited looks at third base and in left field, for what it’s worth.

Although last season marked an obvious low point for Hernandez, he’s long been a solid everyday option at the keystone. From 2016-21, the switch-hitter notched a combined .271/.348/.394 batting line with a  modest blend of power and speed, consistently above-average walk rates and consistently lower-than-average strikeout rates. That’ll be the player the Tigers hope they’re getting on this non-guaranteed deal.

The Tigers’ infield mix is relatively full, but it’s possible Hernandez could still carve out a role. As it stands, the team hopes to deploy Spencer Torkelson at first base, Jonathan Schoop at second, Javier Baez at shortstop and Nick Maton at third. That said, Torkelson, the former No. 1 overall pick, didn’t establish himself as a viable big league bat in his rookie campaign and will presumably need to earn his spot in the lineup this spring. If he struggles, it’s feasible that Schoop could spend some time at first base, which would open up some potential reps at second for Hernandez. Furthermore, if the Tigers are comfortable bouncing him to multiple spots, Hernandez could simply win a utility role out of the gate.

The Top Remaining Free Agent Middle Infield Options

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Jean Segura came off the board last week on a two-year deal with the Marlins. That removed the top remaining free agent middle infielder, leaving clubs with very few possibilities for help either at shortstop or second base.

Of course, Carlos Correa lingers over the entire market. Until he officially puts pen to paper somewhere, there’s at least a chance for another twist in that saga. Various reports have suggested Correa’s focused on hammering out his deal with the Mets in spite of their concerns about his physical, and that was essentially confirmed yesterday by Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. We’ll set Correa aside and look at the best options remaining for teams outside of Queens.

Here are the still-unsigned free agent middle infielders who tallied at least 150 plate appearances in 2022:

  • Elvis Andrus (34): Andrus is arguably the top unsigned free agent infielder. The 14-year veteran still brings a high-contact bat and quality baserunning to the table. Public defensive metrics have been divided on his work recently, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average generally rating him as an above-average shortstop despite less enthusiastic reviews from Defensive Runs Saved. Andrus looked like a glove-only player after hitting .255/.302/.360 from 2018-21, but he bounced back with a solid 2022 campaign. He hit .249/.303/.404 with 17 home runs (the second-highest total of his career) last season. That included a very strong finish, as Andrus hit .271/.309/.464 in 43 games with the White Sox after the A’s released him in mid-August in a move seemingly motivated by a desire to keep him from vesting a $15MM option in his contract for the 2023 season.
  • Josh Harrison (35): The final couple months of the season saw Andrus and Harrison overlap on Chicago’s South Side. The latter played the entire season there after signing a one-year free agent deal during Spring Training. Harrison appeared in 119 games, mostly split between second and third base. He hit .256/.317/.370 with seven home runs across 425 trips to the plate, overcoming a slow start to finish the year with roughly average offensive numbers. The veteran had posted similar numbers in each of the previous two seasons. He doesn’t draw many walks or hit for significant power, but he’s a respected clubhouse presence who consistently puts the ball in play. Harrison still earns solid grades from defensive metrics for his second and third base work; he’s not an option at shortstop, however.
  • José Iglesias (33): Iglesias spent the 2022 season as the primary shortstop in Colorado. He hit .292/.328/.380 through 467 plate appearances, right in line with the production he’s managed over the past four seasons. Igleias is very difficult to strike out and hits for consistently high batting averages, albeit without much else to drive the offensive profile. He rarely walks or hits home runs, though he’s a threat for 25-plus doubles annually. That offense sufficed when paired with the excellent defense that defined his early MLB tenure. He’s drawn less favorable reviews from public metrics the past two seasons though. Statcast has pegged him as a league average shortstop in each of the last two campaigns, but Defensive Runs Saved has rated him a staggering 26 runs below average since the start of 2021. How teams feel about Iglesias’ glove at this stage of his career figures to determine whether he’ll get semi-regular playing time again or have to assume more of a utility role in 2023.
  • César Hernández (32): Hernández suited up 147 times and tallied 617 plate appearances with the Nationals last season. He was a durable presence in the lineup for manager Dave Martinez but had a rough season. Just a year after popping a career-high 21 home runs, the switch-hitter mustered only one longball in the nation’s capital. Hernández is limited to second base and has posted subpar defensive metrics in each of the last two years. He might be limited to minor league offers.
  • Rougned Odor (29): Odor spent the 2022 campaign in Baltimore, his third team in as many seasons. The production was similar as it has been at each of the previous two stops. Odor has enough left-handed power to connect on 10-15 home runs with fairly regular playing time. Yet he also makes plenty of outs thanks both to consistently low walk rates and a propensity for infield pop-ups. Odor is almost strictly a second baseman — he has intermittent experience at third base as well — and posted below-average defensive numbers last year.

Utility Types/Bounceback Fliers

  • Hanser Alberto (30): Alberto brings a high-contact righty bat to a bench. He never walks and has only once topped three home runs in a season but has plus bat-to-ball skills and is well-regarded as a clubhouse presence. Alberto hit .244/.258/.365 in 159 plate appearances with the Dodgers in 2022.
  • Johan Camargo (29): Camargo spent the 2022 season with the Phillies, hitting .237/.297/.316 through 166 plate appearances. The switch-hitter had a pair of productive years with the Braves to open his MLB career but has since had four straight well below-average seasons. Camargo’s most natural fit is at third base, though he played more shortstop with Philadelphia.
  • Harold Castro (29): A left-handed hitter, Castro makes a decent amount of contact. He’s a career .284 hitter but rarely walks or hits for power. He’s played extensively throughout the infield and even logged a fair bit of center field work but rated poorly defensively at every stop. The Tigers non-tendered him at the end of the season.
  • Yu Chang (27): Chang bounced around the league via waivers in 2022, suiting up for four teams. He hit .208/.289/.315 in 190 combined plate appearances. Chang had been a prospect of some regard during his time in the Cleveland farm system. He hasn’t hit in limited MLB looks in any of the past four seasons but can play all four infield spots.
  • Didi Gregorius (33): Gregorius was an above-average shortstop as recently as 2020. Unfortunately, a two-year free agent deal to return to the Phillies over the 2020-21 offseason didn’t pan out. Gregorius struggled offensively in both seasons, including a .210/.263/.304 line in 232 trips to the plate last year. The Phils cut him in early August and he didn’t sign elsewhere before year’s end.
  • Josh VanMeter (28): VanMeter is primarily a second baseman who has some experience at the corner spots. He hit .187/.266/.292 with a trio of home runs through 192 plate appearances with the Pirates last season.
  • Jonathan Villar (31): Villar has excellent speed and has stolen more than 35 bases on three separate occasions. He’s intermittently been a productive hitter, posting above-average offensive numbers as recently as 2021. Last season was a disappointment, however. Villar hit .208/.260/.302 in 220 plate appearances between the Cubs and Angels. He spent the final couple months of the year in Triple-A.

Nationals Notes: Abrams, Garcia, Hernandez, Franco, Corbin

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The Nationals could soon be in line for a shakeup of their infield. Top shortstop prospect C.J. Abrams was arguably the centerpiece of the six-player return for Juan Soto and Josh Bell. The Nats immediately optioned Abrams to Triple-A Rochester, but Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post writes that the club is likely to soon recall the 21-year-old to the majors.

Once Abrams makes his way to Nationals Park, he’s likely to play everyday at shortstop. Dougherty indicates the organization views Abrams as their long-term franchise shortstop, which is hardly a surprise after the club made him a key piece of such a monumental trade. The former sixth overall pick only has a .232/.285/.320 line through his first 46 big league games, but he owns an impressive .311/.366/.503 mark in his first taste of Triple-A action. Baseball America rated him as the sport’s #11 overall prospect on their latest update.

The Nats have already been turning to a young player at shortstop. Luis García has been one of the organization’s more promising prospects for years, but he’s still just 22 years old. The 6’2″ infielder has drawn praise from evaluators for his pure hitting ability. He’s hit plenty of line drives in his limited big league time, but he’s also shown an extremely aggressive approach. García carried a .290 batting average into play tonight, but he’d reached base at just a .295 clip based on a microscopic 0.9% walk rate. (That’s gone up slightly, as he did draw a free pass in tonight’s game).

The jury may still be out on García’s offensive upside, but it’s apparent he’s miscast as a shortstop. Prospect evaluators were divided on his ability to stick at the position long-term, and the results in his big league time have been ghastly. In 568 2/3 career innings at shortstop, García has rated a staggering 19 runs below average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. Statcast’s Outs Above Average has him at 17 plays below par. As Mike Petriello of MLB.com observed this afternoon (Twitter link), public defensive metrics have rated the Nationals’ shortstops as by far the worst collection of defenders in the majors this season. That’s not entirely on García — the since-released Dee Strange-Gordon and Alcides Escobar also struggled — but it’s clear the team could use a better defender to anchor the infield.

García won’t lose his spot in the starting lineup on a rebuilding team, though. Once Abrams is in the big leagues, García is likely to kick to the other side of the second base bag. He’s rated as a below-average but not quite so disastrous defender at the keystone. Still, there’s reason for Washington to challenge their young players in non-competitive seasons. That’s particularly true with the team rostering a couple of aging veterans who are playing out the final few months of one-year contracts.

Second baseman César Hernández and third baseman Maikel Franco have each played the majority of games this season, but neither has performed well. Hernández owns a .241/.305/.306 line through 476 plate appearances. The switch-hitting infielder has incredibly not connected on a single home run all season after popping a career-high 21 longballs last year. Franco has only a .228/.255/.337 showing in 373 trips to the plate. Among players with 300+ plate appearances, only Tigers second baseman Jonathan Schoop has a lower on-base percentage (.240) than Franco’s .255.

Clearly, neither player is going to be a key piece of the rebuild. The club’s hope of cashing either in for future value at the trade deadline has come and gone, with both struggling so badly there was no real interest from contenders. With that in mind, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com wonders whether Hernández and Franco will even hold their roster spots for the rest of the 2022 season. Zuckerman notes that Franco may be in better position to remain in the lineup. While Abrams’ arrival should push Hernández out of the starting lineup, journeyman Ildemaro Vargas stands as Franco’s biggest competitor for reps at the hot corner with Carter Kieboom out for the season.

Hernández and Franco aren’t the only struggling veterans on a club that’s 39 games under .500. Southpaw Patrick Corbin has been one of the sport’s least effective starters. After allowing six runs and failing to make it out of the first inning in a start against the Phillies on Saturday, Corbin carries a 7.02 ERA through 110 1/3 innings. That’s easily a personal worst, but Corbin has been well below-average for three straight years after an excellent first season in Washington. Since the beginning of 2020, he owns a 5.98 ERA through 65 starts.

Manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Andrew Golden of the Washington Post) that the club will take advantage of a team off-day on Thursday to skip Corbin’s next turn through the rotation. That’s a temporary measure designed to afford the left-hander more time to work with pitching coach Jim Hickey, and the club is apparently not considering permanently removing Corbin from the starting five. “I want to leave this year with a positive moving forward to next year because, regardless of what anyone thinks, he’s going to be one of our starters next year and the year after that,” Martinez said of Corbin.

The 33-year-old is under contract for two seasons beyond this one. He’s due around $24MM next season and will make a bit more than $35MM come 2024. Given Corbin’s struggles, it’s hard to envision the Nationals getting out from under any of that money. With Washington likely to be rebuilding over the next two seasons anyhow, the club can live with some struggles from Corbin as he picks up innings as part of an uncertain rotation.

Nationals Sign Cesar Hernandez

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The Nationals announced they’ve signed second baseman César Hernández to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $4MM guarantee for the Octagon client that contains an additional $1MM in available incentives.

Hernández returns to the NL East, where he spent the bulk of his career with the Phillies. The switch-hitting infielder broke into the majors in 2013, taking hold of the Phils’ regular second base job by 2015. He spent the next five seasons as a solid regular. Hernández didn’t bring a ton of power to the table, but he drew plenty of walks, put the ball in play and rated as a plus defender at the keystone.

Philadelphia was happy to keep Hernández for the early stages of his career, but they non-tendered him after the 2019 campaign as his arbitration salaries escalated. The Venezuela native signed with Cleveland that offseason, hitting at a solid .283/.355/.408 clip in the shortened season. They brought Hernández back last winter, and he continued to produce — albeit in a completely different manner than he had previously.

Over 420 plate appearances, Hernández popped a career-best 18 homers. But he also saw his batting average fall to a personal-low .231 as he became more fly-ball oriented. That led to a corresponding drop in on-base percentage, although his power uptick kept his overall numbers right around league average. The White Sox acquired Hernández at the trade deadline in the wake of Nick Madrigal’s season-ending hamstring injury, hoping he’d solidify the keystone for the stretch run.

That proved not to be the case, as Hernández sputtered to a .232/.309/.299 line with only three homers in 217 trips to the plate with Chicago. Given those struggles, it’s not surprising the Sox elected to decline his $6MM club option and look elsewhere at the position this winter.

Hernández won’t quite match that salary on his deal with the Nats, but he has a chance to come fairly close if he maxes out all the incentives. He’ll offer some short-term veteran stability to a Washington infield that also features Josh Bell at first base and Alcides Escobar, Carter Kieboom and Luis García around the diamond. The 21-year-old García had been pencilled in as the regular at second base. With the Nats retooling, it’s unlikely they’ll cut into his playing time. García has ample minor league experience at shortstop and could conceivably kick back across the bag to accommodate Hernández while relegating Escobar to a utility role.

Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was first to report the Nationals’ interest in Hernández. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported the contract terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

White Sox To Decline Option On Cesar Hernandez

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The White Sox will decline their $6MM club option on second baseman Cesar Hernandez, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (via Twitter). There’s no buyout on that option. Hernandez will become a free agent once the move is made official.

Hernandez slugged a career-high 21 home runs between Cleveland and Chicago this season but did so with a lackluster .232/.308/.386 batting line on the whole. He was more productive prior to the trade (.231/.307/.431) than he was after being moved (.232/.309/.299). Just three of Hernandez’s 21 long balls came with the White Sox.

Chicago’s acquisition of Hernandez was necessitated by a hamstring tear to Nick Madrigal, the former No. 4 overall pick whom the South Siders had pegged as the second baseman of the future. That unfortunate injury also set the stage for the Sox to boldly trade an injured Madrigal, controlled another five seasons, in a crosstown deal that netted Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel. The entire gambit fell shy of the front office’s hopes, and the ChiSox now face both a tough decision on Kimbrel’s $16MM option and a long-term hole at second base.

Hernandez might’ve been a reasonable stopgap, but the White Sox’ decision to cut him loose points to the likelihood that the 2021 AL Central champs have their sights set higher. With the Twins expected to reload and try for better results in 2022, the Tigers expected to spend aggressively this winter and the Royals moving into win-now mode as their own top prospects bubble to the surface in the big leagues, next year’s AL Central could be the most competitive it’s been in years.

Chicago’s decision to move on from Hernandez also speaks to the potential that he’ll find a rather tepid market for his services this winter. Hernandez has long been a solid regular at second base, but his two prior dalliances into free agency haven’t produced a multi-year deal. He’ll now hit the market on the heels of his weakest all-around showing since 2014 and in advance of his age-32 season — an obviously suboptimal set of circumstances.

Hernandez signed a one-year, $5MM guarantee off a much better showing in the 2020-21 offseason, and the Sox are effectively indicating that the market doesn’t value him at $6MM on a one-year term. Hernandez could have to settle for a lower base salary on an incentive-laden deal as he looks to recapture the form that saw him bat .280/.357/.396 in more than 2800 plate appearances from 2016-20.

Free Agent Notes: Shortstops, Belt, Seager, Hernandez

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After asking 11 rival evaluators to rate the offseason’s top five free agent shortstops on a 1-5 grading scale, ESPN’s Buster Olney reveals the final order was Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez, with Seager claiming 50 of a possible 55 points.  Seager received six of the first-place votes (Correa received four and Semien one) due to his age and big left-handed bat, even though there was some question about his durability and how long he’ll be able to remain at the shortstop position.

All five players carry their share of question marks, which is what will make the shortstop market so fascinating to observe as the many teams in need of shortstop (and overall infield) help will be competing for these names at the top of the market.  Unsurprisingly, the 11 evaluators cite the Yankees and Tigers as likely to land one of the big five shortstops, and teams like the Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, Cubs, and Angels could all be in the mix.  In an additional detail on Semien, there is some feeling that he would like to remain with the Blue Jays, while other evaluators believe the Bay Area native would prefer to play with a team closer to home.

More on other pending or possible free agents…

  • Brandon Belt and the Giants had some in-season negotiations about a contract extension, and while “talks didn’t go anywhere,” NBC Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic feels there is enough mutual interest between the two sides that Belt will return to San Francisco in 2022 and beyond.  Though Belt turns 34 in April and battled multiple injuries, he has also been hitting at the highest level of his career — Belt has hit .285/.393/.595 with 38 home runs over 560 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season.  The Giants have already worked out an extension with the other member of “the Brandons,” locking up Brandon Crawford to a new two-year deal back in August.
  • “The ship has sailed” on Kyle Seager returning to the Mariners, The Athletic’s Corey Brock opines as part of a reader mailbag.  Brock feels both the team and the veteran third baseman are ready to move on, seemingly precluding any chance of either the M’s exercising their $20MM club option on Seager for 2022, or Seager being open to re-signing with Seattle at a lower price.  Seager seemed to hint at a departure a few weeks ago, when he said that he hadn’t heard anything from the team about the option, and also noted that he hadn’t personally spoken with GM Jerry DiPoto in several years.
  • Speaking of contract options, The Athletic’s James Fegan predicts the White Sox will decline their $6MM club option on Cesar Hernandez for next season.  Hernandez hit only .232/.309/.299 in 217 PA after being acquired from Cleveland at the trade deadline, so Fegan believes the Sox will be looking to upgrade at the keystone, rather than just retain Hernandez or hand the position to some combination of Leury Garcia, Danny Mendick or Romy Gonzalez.  More offensive production will of course be welcome, but the White Sox might also prioritize a strong second base glove as a way of improving the club’s run-prevention efforts.

Central Notes: White Sox, Cubs, Tigers

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The White Sox rolled out a $128MM payroll on opening day this year, already the highest in franchise history, but don’t expect Chicago to curb their spending now. Team options for the newly acquired Cesar Hernandez and Craig Kimbrel would bring their payroll for next season up to $150MM — and that’s before arbitration raises – but owner Jerry Reinsdorf and GM Rick Hahn have prepared for this payroll spike and they’re ready for it, per The Athletic’s James Fegan. If Hernandez and/or Kimbrel aren’t part of the 2022 Sox, it won’t be because of their impact on the payroll. Elsewhere from the flyover states…

White Sox Acquire Cesar Hernandez

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After searching the infield market for second base upgrades over the past few weeks, the White Sox announced Thursday that they’ve acquired veteran Cesar Hernandez from the division-rival Indians in exchange for minor league left-hander Konnor Pilkington. Chicago released right-hander Tyler Johnson in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Cesar Hernandez | Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Second base has been a clear area of focus for a White Sox team that lost Nick Madrigal for the season (torn hamstring) earlier this year. Chicago has been hit hard by injuries in the outfield, but with Eloy Jimenez returning this week and Luis Robert on the mend, the infield began to look like a more logical target. The Sox have been connected to Jonathan Schoop, Trevor Story, Adam Frazier and other infield targets, but they’ll go with the solid, switch-hitting Hernandez to step in and solidify the lineup.

Hernandez, 31, is playing the season on a one-year, $5MM contract that contains a $6MM club option for the 2022 campaign. He’s still owed about $1.8MM of that $5MM sum through season’s end, and there’s no buyout on the option, so it’ll be a straight $6MM call for Chicago after the season. Given that Madrigal is expected to be healthy for the 2022 campaign, Hernandez could well be viewed as a rental option for the South Siders, although the $6MM price point isn’t so steep that he couldn’t be kept as a potential utility option.

Hernandez isn’t hitting for average as he typically does, but his 18 home runs already represent a career-high mark. He’s not striking out any less often than he did in 2020, when he batted .283, but Hernandez has been plagued by a career-low .256 average on balls in play that sits 74 points below his career mark. It’s possible, then, that he’s in for some positive regression over the season’s final couple months.

Even if that’s not the case, however, his .231/.307/.431 batting line is a solid enough plug-in to a strong ChiSox lineup. That production is exactly league-average after adjusting for Hernandez’s league and park, by measure of wRC+, which falls right in line with what Hernrnadez has been for the past six seasons.

On the Indians’ side of the swap, they’ll add Pilkington, a 23-year-old lefty whom the White Sox selected out of Mississippi State in the third round of the 2018 draft. He’s spent this season pitching in Double-A and has fared well, working to a 3.48 ERA with a 30.5 percent strikeout rate, a 9.0 percent walk rate and a 43.4 percent ground-ball rate in 14 starts — a total of 62 innings.

Pilkington wasn’t presently ranked among the White Sox’ top prospects, though that’s surely at least in part due to scouts not being able to get a look at him during 2020. He entered the ’20 campaign ranked 17th among Sox farmhands at Baseball America, and FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen tabbed him 21st in the system last year. BA’s 2020 report on the lefty noted that he lacks the “knockout repertoire” evaluators prefer to see but suggested he could still be a fifth starter. That type of profile is also the type that could tick up in the bullpen, of course, so it’s possible that’s where Pilkington ultimately lands. Given his age and success at the Double-A level, Pilkington is a relatively near-term addition for Cleveland.

The 25-year-old Johnson’s release comes after the 2015 fifth-rounder has struggled across three minor league levels in 2021. The South Carolina product has spent time at Triple-A and both Class-A affiliates in Chicago’s system but allowed a combined 23 runs (17 earned) in 16 innings of work.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the trade was close (Twitter link). The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that a deal had been reached. Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base first reported that Pilkington was going back to the Indians (Twitter link)

Indians’ Recent Struggles Lead To Difficult Deadline Decisions

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A couple weeks ago, the Indians season seemed to hit a crossroads. The team was in a good place in the standings. As recently as June 26, Cleveland was sporting a 41-32 record, sitting only a game and a half behind the AL Central-leading White Sox. They were the only real threat to Chicago in an otherwise bad division.

The state of the roster, though, told a different story. Cleveland’s offense has underwhelmed all year, with the team’s strong run prevention keeping them in the race. The Indians were dealt a series of injuries to their top three starters — Zach Plesac, Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale — in fairly rapid succession, though. That left an unproven, inexperienced group taking the bump without the benefit of a high-powered lineup to back them up.

Not surprisingly, it’s been tough sledding for Cleveland in recent weeks. The Indians have gone just 4-10 over their last fourteen games, falling 7.5 back of the White Sox. They’re a more manageable four games back in the Wild Card race, but their skid has raised some questions about the team’s ability to stay in contention. Plesac returned from the IL this week, but the Indians are still without Bieber and Civale and continue to have questions about the lineup. FanGraphs gives the Indians just a 7.1% chance of reaching the postseason at this point, with their odds of winning the division down to 3.5%.

The front office is no doubt aware of those dwindling playoff odds. Indeed, Jon Heyman of MLB Network hears from rival executives that Cleveland has made some players on the big league roster available to other clubs in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.

It’s not clear specifically which players are on the market, but there’s no indication the Indians are planning any sort of full-on teardown. Bieber and José Ramírez would be the top two players on the trade market were they made available, but it seems highly unlikely the Indians would market those kinds of controllable stars in response to two weeks of poor play. The Cleveland front office would probably figure to listen to offers on players with less club control. There aren’t many players on the Indians roster who stand out as obvious trade chips at first glance, though.

Second baseman César Hernández looks like the team’s most plausible trade candidate. He’s hitting .226/.305/.413 and has already tied his career high in home runs (15) this season. It’s a nontraditional shape of production for Hernández, who typically hits for strong averages and reaches base at a high clip without hitting for much power. While Hernández’s profile has changed in 2021, he’s been similarly valuable as before. His 95 wRC+ this year isn’t far off his career mark (99) and is essentially unchanged from his 2019-20 production (97). Hernández is making an affordable $5MM this season and comes with a $6MM club option (no buyout) for 2022.

Cleveland would figure to welcome interest in corner outfielder Eddie Rosario. He’s making $8MM, though, and wasn’t having a particularly good year even before landing on the 10-day injured list with an abdominal strain this week. The Indians have a handful of young relievers (James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, Nick Sandlin) who would figure to draw plenty of attention, but it’s not clear the team would consider moving any of them. Veteran relievers Nick Wittgren and Bryan Shaw would probably be more attainable but wouldn’t bring back franchise-altering returns.

More broadly, the Indians are facing an interesting few months as an organization. The controllable core of Ramírez, Bieber, Civale, Plesac and Franmil Reyes looks good enough to anchor a contender. They would obviously love for Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario to produce enough to supplement that group. The farm system is regarded as one of the league’s best. It’s not inconceivable to see the Indians as a threat in the division in the coming years, even if the front office moves a couple veterans before the deadline in an acknowledgment of their increasingly slim playoff chances in 2021.

As the past few weeks have shown, though, there’s still plenty of work to be done to make the current roster a legitimate contender. The rotation is very strong at the top but the recent injury woes have exposed its lack of depth. The outfield has been a weak point for years. The catching duo of Roberto Pérez and Austin Hedges is a well-regarded defensive grouping but has offered virtually nothing at the plate, and the team’s first basemen have been the worst offensively in MLB this year. Giménez also struggled in his first crack at locking down shortstop.

There’s still a few weeks for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and the rest of the front office to settle on a pre-deadline plan. Even if they stand pat or serve as minor sellers, the upcoming offseason will be a pivotal one to determining the franchise’s long-term direction.

Quick Hits: Indians, Payroll, Patton, Nationals, Catchers

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The Indians did not budget enough money in 2021 to both re-sign Cesar Hernandez and add free agent Eddie Rosario. With those two completing the lineup, the Indians’ roster is more-or-less set with a payroll around $50MM, per Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Take this for what it is, but the Indians exceeded payroll just to get there. Owner Paul Dolan made an extra concession to allow the addition of Rosario. To their credit, he represents a somewhat major addition given their inability to field above-average offensive outfielders. Over the last two seasons, Rosario slashed .271/.305/.494 with 45 home runs over 821 plate appearances, good for a modest 105 wRC+. That Nolan was willing to stretch the payroll speaks volumes about how the Indians value Rosario’s fit in the lineup.

  • Spencer Patton is throwing an improved change-up with the hopes of bringing three viable pitches out of the bullpen, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The 32-year-old right-hander led Nippon Professional Baseball with 57 appearances last season, which is no small feat to MLB teams aware of the perils in ramping up pitcher workloads in 2021. Patton’s numbers from Japan won’t blow you away, however, with a 4.92 ERA, respectable 28.1 percent strikeout rate, and slightly-concerning 11.7 percent walk rate. Patton will throw for teams again on February 2nd, with the Braves, Rays, Angels, Royals, Rangers, and Giants being among the teams to have shown some interest thus far.
  • Pitching has long been the focus for the Nationals organization, but at the same time, they’ve lagged behind in the catching department, writes MASNSports.com’s Mark Zuckerman. Pedro Severino is the most prolific homegrown catcher with 105 games played for the organization – though he didn’t break out until joining the Orioles. Raudy Read or Tres Barrera are next in line to have an opportunity, but the recent signing of Alex Avila suggests GM Mike Rizzo isn’t ready to give either one too long of a look out of the blocks. Both Barrera and Read have served PED suspensions in the past, however, and Welington Castillo will also be in camp as a non-roster invitee.
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