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Lance McCullers Jr.

Latest On Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr.

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With nine losses in their past 11 games, the reigning American League champion Astros have fallen under .500 (23-24) and find themselves fighting for their playoff lives. The Astros have gone almost the whole year without 2019 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, which certainly hasn’t helped matters, but they’re hoping to get him back for a start in the final week of the regular season, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com relays.

Verlander, who’s recovering from a forearm strain, threw 55-60 pitches Saturday and will soon face live hitters, which is a “very, very positive sign,” according to manager Dusty Baker.

In Baker’s estimation, no matter how late in the campaign, a Verlander return would be like a major late-season acquisition. Baker’s not wrong in that regard, as Verlander has long been an elite starter and could help decide whether the Astros make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season or sit home in the fall.

Without Verlander, who has only taken the mound once (on July 24), the Astros’ formerly elite rotation has been a middle-of-the-pack unit. Zack Greinke and Framber Valdez have posted far better field-independent pitching numbers than ERAs; on the other hand, the opposite has been true for Cristian Javier; Jose Urquidy has only made two starts; and Lance McCullers Jr. logged a 5.79 ERA before going on the injured list Sept. 6 with neck problems. Like Verlander, though, McCullers is on his way back, per McTaggart, who writes that he’ll return to the team’s rotation Wednesday.

Quick Hits: Mills, Kim, McCullers, Hernandez

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Alec Mills entered the record books today when the Cubs right-hander tossed a no-hitter in Chicago’s 12-0 victory over the Brewers.  Mills issued three walks and struck out five over his gem of an outing, recording his first career complete game to go along with his no-hit bid.  Today marked only the 15th start of Mills’ Major League career, as the 28-year-old has worked as something of a swingman during his four seasons in the bigs, though he became a full-time starter this year in the wake of injuries within the Cubs’ rotation and now owns a piece of baseball history.

More from around the Show…

  • Kwang Hyun Kim is scheduled to start the first game of the Cardinals’ doubleheader with the Brewers on Monday, marking his return from an injured list stint that retroactively began on September 2.  Kim was sidelined with a kidney problem that required a short stay in hospital, but as MLB.com’s Anne Rogers explains, Kim is now taking a blood thinner and observing other precautions that will allow him to return to action after slightly beyond the 10-day minimum IL absence.  In his first season in Major League Baseball, Kim has thus far had no problem adjusting, as the southpaw has an 0.83 ERA over his first 21 2/3 innings, starting four of his five appearances.
  • Speaking of returning starters, the Astros listed Lance McCullers Jr. as the starter for Wednesday’s game against the Rangers, indicating that the right-hander’s time on the injured list is nearing an end.  McCullers hit the 10-day IL on September 6 due to neck nerve irritation, a rather concerning-sounding issue that left a return date up in the air.  After taking an anti-inflammatory injection, however, McCullers now seems on track to get back on the mound after only a minimal IL stint.  The former first-rounder has a 5.79 ERA over eight starts and 37 1/3 innings this season, though the Astros will surely welcome whatever McCullers can contribute to a rotation mix that has managed middle-of-the-pack numbers despite multiple injuries.
  • There haven’t yet been any contract talks between Cesar Hernandez and the Indians, but the second baseman “would be looking to be part of the team for the coming years,” as he told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Hernandez was non-tendered by the Phillies last winter and signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal with the Tribe, delivering a .266/.337/.383 slash line over 210 plate appearances in 2020.  While this offensive production is slightly below average (95 wRC+), his bat in combination with his strong second base defense has made for a solid 1.0 fWAR contribution over his 46 games in a Cleveland uniform.  There are some other interesting middle infield options in the free market, plus this player pool is likely to grow once teams make their own non-tender decisions.  Hernandez is the type of decent but unspectacular player who could potentially be squeezed into a one-year contract this winter if teams tighten their budgets in the wake of this pandemic season, so the Indians (certainly a team looking to limit its payroll) could have room to re-sign Hernandez if the price is right.

Lance McCullers Jr. Placed On 10-Day Injured List

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TODAY: The procedure Baker mentioned was “a mild anti-inflammatory injection to alleviate nerve irritation in [McCullers’] neck,” according to Rome.

SEPT. 8: McCullers “had some procedure done” on his neck, manager Dusty Baker announced (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). The surgery repaired “95 to 98 percent of whatever discomfort he was feeling,” according to Baker, though it’s still unknown when McCullers will return.

SEPT. 6: The Astros have placed right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. on the 10-day injured list due to neck nerve irritation, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Beyond the requisite 10 days on the IL, a timeline for McCullers’s return is unclear. Southpaw Cionel Perez was recalled from the taxi squad to join the active roster.

McCullers pitched Friday against the Angels, failing to record an out and exiting the game after facing just five batters. He walked three Angels hitters and conceded three runs, but stated after the game that his struggles weren’t due to injury.

While we don’t know precisely how long the Astros expect McCullers to be shelved, any injury to an already-thin Houston pitching staff is a significant one. The team has been without ace Justin Verlander for practically the entire season, and Jose Urquidy has only just returned from a bout with COVID-19. As such, Houston has had to rely on inexperienced starters like Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, and Brandon Bielak.

McCullers, for his part, has had an up-and-down campaign in his return from Tommy John surgery, which cost him all of last year. There’s been a mix of good starts and bad starts, but the numbers indicate for the most part that the 26-year-old is not quite back to the form that earned him an All-Star nod in 2017.

While he’s been known as a strikeout pitcher for his entire career, he’s averaging only 7.7 K/9 in 2020.  McCullers’ sinker velocity is down ever so slightly from previous years, but the more glaring disparity is in his sinker’s spin rate, which has taken a considerable hit from where it was two years ago. That, along with decreased curveball usage (at 35%, he’s throwing the curveball less than ever), has made it more difficult to generate whiffs.

Astros Rotation Status

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The Astros have lots on their plate after a difficult couple of weeks in the public eye, but they have on-field issues at hand as well. Now that the manager and GM are in place, the focus can soon return to the field. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke make for an enviable top of the rotation, but there’s uncertainty beyond their veteran aces, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.

Lance McCullers Jr. will return from elbow surgery to man the third spot in the rotation, and after his strong performance in the postseason, Jose Urquidy has a good chance of claiming one of the two remaining slots. But with a new GM and manager stepping in, there’s a potential clean slate working against the otherwise favored.

A host of candidates are on hand to push Urquidy and contend for the final rotation role. Brad Peacock and Austin Pruitt are the veterans with rotation experience on hand, with either one capable of taking turns in the rotation.

Beyond the vets, there are a host of young arms capable of proving their readiness and stepping into the rotation. Josh James, Bryan Abreu, Framber Valdez, Forrest Whitley, Austin Pruitt, Cy Sneed and Francis Martes. There’s more at stake in this arms race, as there are three to four bullpen spots available for those left out of the dugout.

AL Notes: McCullers, Cron, Schoop, Orioles

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Lance McCullers Jr. has “been dying” to return to the mound, and “is ready for the season to start tomorrow if it could,” the Astros righty tells MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.  Recovery from Tommy John surgery in November 2018 kept McCullers sidelined for all of last season, though he said he is on track for Spring Training and Opening Day after completing his rehab last month.  McCullers’ return will be a boost to an Astros rotation that has already lost Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley in free agency, and the 26-year-old is still looking to fully break out in what would be his fifth MLB season.  Injuries have limited the former 41st-overall pick to just 453 2/3 innings in his career, though McCullers has pitched well (3.67 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.86 K/BB rate) when healthy and has both an impressive postseason resume and an All-Star appearance to his name.

More Christmas Day notes from the American League…

  • Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron are both looking forward to new opportunities in the Motor City, as the two newest Tigers told reporters (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News).  In Cron’s case, he said the Tigers “were on me from the beginning” after the first baseman was non-tendered by the Twins.  “The thing that stood out the most was just how much Detroit wanted me….They told my agent early on they wanted me to be a part of this thing and their persistence never stopped,” Cron said.  “Anytime somebody wants you that bad, it feels good and it made my interest higher and higher.”
  • Several Orioles questions are addressed by The Athletic’s Dan Connolly (subscription required) during a reader mailbag piece, including the issue of just how much financial support GM Mike Elias has at his disposal as he rebuilds the roster.  For example, Baltimore’s decision to trade Jonathan Villar to the Marlins for a fairly minimal prospect return created the impression that the O’s were more concerned with getting Villar’s $10.4MM projected arbitration salary off the books than they were in getting full value back for the talented infielder.  In Connolly’s view, “Elias’ hands are tied more than he would have preferred,” perhaps due to such factors as low attendance at Camden Yards and the likelihood that the Orioles will have to start more evenly sharing their MASN broadcast revenue with the Nationals.  It doesn’t seem that the O’s will be able to explore such tactics as offering to take a bad contract off another team’s hands if that team also includes some prospects in the trade.  That said, it isn’t as if the Orioles are running a total bare-bones operation — Connolly notes that ownership has invested in the Orioles’ infrastructure, giving Elias more modernized analytics and international scouting departments.

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Lance McCullers Jr.

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The Astros announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Lance McCullers Jr.. He’ll receive $4.1MM, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

That’s just what MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected McCullers to earn. But it’d be disingenuous to claim credit for this one. The talented hurler missed the entirety of the 2019 season, so he was clearly in line for a repeat salary.

McCullers, 26, will be looking to return from Tommy John surgery in his penultimate season of team control. When last we saw him, in 2018, he turned in 128 1/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball with 10.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He carries a 3.67 ERA in his career. If McCullers can return to that sort of productivity and stay on the mound, it would go a long way towards helping the Houston rotation make up for the loss of Gerrit Cole.

Lance McCullers Jr. Making Progress In Rehab

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Righty Lance McCullers Jr. is showing tangible progress in his efforts to return from Tommy John surgery. He’s back on the mound and already touching 90 mph, as he documented yesterday on Twitter.

It has been just under a year since McCullers went under the knife to receive a replacement ulnar collateral ligament. There was never any urgency to his rehab, since it was exceedingly unlikely he’d be back late in 2019. That makes it all the more promising to see him already cleared to reach this level of activity.

McCullers still has over four months to work with before Spring Training opens next year. There are still plenty of obstacles to clear, but it seems reasonable to hope that he’ll get in the required work (along with some rest) and be ready to roll come mid-February.

The Houston organization is obviously still focused on the final game or two of the season at the moment. But the gaze will soon turn to a winter roster-building effort that will feature some tough choices from a financial perspective.

There’s particular need in the Houston rotation, which is set to part with top hurler Gerrit Cole as well as the capable Wade Miley, who threw a lot of useful innings before a late nosedive. You can do worse than a staff anchored by Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, though neither is a youthful hurler and there are questions after that point. Jose Urquidy was likely already ticketed for a spot before his impressive recent World Series outing, but he’s largely unproven and that still only accounts for three spots. There’s always talent to work with in Houston, but high-ceiling prospect Forrest Whitley and other options have even lesser track records than Urquidy.

There’ll surely be some kind of outside addition to ensure adequate depth, though it’s unclear how much cash president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow will be able to dedicate to that purpose. The status of McCullers will therefore weigh heavily on the Astros’ offseason planning and, perhaps, its fortunes in 2020.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
  • The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
  • Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
  • Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
  • The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
  • The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
  • Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
  • New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
  • The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
  • Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).

Earlier Updates

Read more

AL Notes: Twins, McCullers, Rays, Zunino, Orioles

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Center fielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano were among the Twins’ best performers during their 2017 playoff season, but both players took massive steps backward during the team’s disappointing 2018 campaign. Now, the down seasons the pair endured are affecting the Twins’ offseason plans, Dan Hayes of The Athletic explains (subscription required). Had those two remained strong contributors last season, Minnesota would’ve been more willing to go “full speed ahead” this winter in an attempt to catch the AL Central rival Indians, Hayes writes. Instead, the Twins’ primary focus right now is to help those two bounce back in 2019. If Buxton and Sano do rebound, Twins ownership would give the team’s front office “the green light to take more of an aggressive step forward with this unit of players,” general manager Thad Levine said, adding he and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey “would feel much more emboldened to take that step forward.”

Here’s more from the American League:

  • Even though the Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr. pitched in September and October, the right-hander tells Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription required) that he was aware by then that he needed Tommy John surgery. McCullers revealed that he received the news when he met with surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Aug. 30, but the 25-year-old – with the blessing of ElAttrache and the Astros – put the procedure on hold until the offseason. While pitching through a partially torn UCL was “painful,” McCullers wasn’t going to make the injury worse by doing it, and he knew he’d miss 2019 no matter what. McCullers ended up going under the knife this past Tuesday, and is aiming for a spring 2020 return. Kaplan’s full piece is worth checking out for more from McCullers.
  • Catcher Mike Zunino, whom the Rays acquired from the Mariners on Thursday, looks like a solid addition from an on-field standpoint. The Rays also place a great deal of value on Zunino as a person, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, noting he should help fill the veteran leadership void left by free agents Sergio Romo and Carlos Gomez. Indeed, GM Erik Neander said that “[Zunino’s] somebody that we see that could take a leadership role with our group.’’ In terms of what Zunino provides as a defender, Neander offered a rave review, pointing to “how he navigates a staff, how he manages people, what kind of teammate he is, the care factor, the confidence that he is putting down the right fingers.”
  • Unsurprisingly, the Orioles won’t be big players in free agency, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. However, Kubatko relays that they will prioritize adding infielders, likely on short-term deals. Assuming the rebuilding Orioles don’t contend in 2019, they could then try to trade those additions over the summer, Kubatko notes. Of the infield options currently on Baltimore’s 40-man roster (Chris Davis, Tim Beckham, Jonathan Villar, Renato Nunez, Breyvic Valera, Steve Wilkerson and Engelb Vielma), only Villar and Nunez offered passable major league production last season.

Lance McCullers Jr. Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. underwent Tommy John surgery today and will miss the 2019 season, tweets Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.

It’s a brutal blow for an Astros rotation that was already faced with the possibility of losing both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency. The loss of McCullers for the upcoming season now gives the Astros a third rotation piece to potentially replace. Houston does have some internal options who’d likely be starting for other organizations; righties Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock have both proven to be viable multi-inning relievers and could potentially slot into the starting five next year depending on the moves that president of baseball operation Jeff Luhnow and the rest of the Houston front office put together.

Luhnow, in fact, spoke today about the possibility of McHugh returning to a starting role next season (Twitter link via Rome). “I’d say we have three spots fairly well locked up, if we choose to go down the path of putting (Collin) McHugh back in the rotation,” he said. “With Lance not being there, it probably increases the odds of that happening.”

That’s not quite a proclamation that McHugh will start in 2019, but it does suggest that the ’Stros are comfortable with that outcome should it be necessary. Houston also has top prospect Forrest Whitley not far from the big leagues, and it’s possible that he could emerge as a rotation piece at some point in 2019.

But Houston’s long-term rotation outlook is now murkier than ever. Beyond the loss of McCullers and the fact that Keuchel and Morton are already free agents, each of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and McHugh will be free agents at the end of the 2019 season. Viewed through that lens, it’s all the more critical for the Astros to add some arms that are controlled for multiple seasons this winter, be they top free agents (e.g., Keuchel, Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Nathan Eovaldi) or trade acquisitions (e.g., James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Michael Fulmer).

The Astros will still owe McCullers a raise on 2018’s $2.45MM salary — a raise they’ll gladly pay despite the fact that McCullers won’t pitch next season. That raise will be based on his 2018 results — 3.86 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 10-6 record through 128 1/3 innings — and he’ll likely earn that amount in both 2019 and 2020. Houston controls McCullers through the 2021 season, so while agreeing to pay a player who is known to be out for the season isn’t an ideal situation, the fact that tendering him a contract also entitles the Astros to his 2020-21 seasons makes it a lock that he’ll be retained.

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