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Dodgers Decline Options On Mark Ellis, Chris Capuano

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The Dodgers announced on Twitter that they have declined their options on Mark Ellis and Chris Capuano. Ellis' contract contained a $5.75MM club option, and Caupano's deal contained an $8MM mutual option. Each player will receive a $1MM buyout.

Ellis, 36, batted .270/.323/.351 with six homers and four steals in 126 games (480 plate appearances) for the Dodgers this season. As is typically the case, he was a standout defender at second base, posting marks of +7.6 in UZR/150 and +12 in The Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric. I speculated earlier today that the Dodgers may be able to trade Ellis to a team in need of an upgrade at the keystone position, as his $5.75MM option was plenty reasonable, but the veteran will now be able to negotiate with any club.

Capuano, 35, pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 105 2/3 innings for the Dodgers this season. While his role with the club was uncertain early on, injuries opened up a rotation spot, and 20 of his 24 appearances for the Dodgers wound up being starts. A .334 batting average on balls in play shows that Capuano was the victim of some poor luck, and his FIP reflects that, projecting that his ERA should've been closer to 3.55.

The Dodgers showed a clear readiness to move on from Ellis when they inked Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero to a four-year $28MM contract on Oct. 22. In terms of pitching depth, they can afford to let Capuano go in search of higher-profile options, given the presence of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley and Stephen Fife.

Minor Moves: Peter Moylan, Freddy Guzman

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Here are today's minor transactions, with the most recent moves at the top of the page…

  • Right-hander Peter Moylan has elected to become a free agent, according to the MLB.com transactions page.  The Dodgers designated Moylan for assignment last week to create 40-man roster space for the newly-signed Alexander Guerrero.  Moylan posted a 6.46 ERA in 15 1/3 relief innings for Los Angeles last season and was plagued by injuries in 2011-12, but the Aussie righty posted a 2.59 ERA in 260 2/3 IP out of the Braves bullpen from 2006-12.
  • The Rays outrighted Freddy Guzman to Triple-A Durham and off the Major League 40-man roster, Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Tribune reports (Twitter link).  Guzman will become a minor league free agent five days after the end of the World Series.  Guzman appeared in one Major League game (his first since 2009) last season, stealing a base and scoring as a pinch-runner.  Guzman has spent most of the last three seasons in the Mexican League and he posted a .855 OPS in 450 PA with Ciudad del Carmen in 2013.
  • Now that Moylan is a free agent, the Red Sox Pedro Beato and the Padres' Colt Hynes and Tommy Layne are the only players remaining in DFA limbo, according to MLBTR's DFA Tracker.

Quick Hits: Robertson, Dodgers, Tanaka, Orioles

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The Yankees should sign reliever David Robertson to an extension, River Ave Blues' Mike Axisa argues. By signing Robertson now, Axisa argues, the Yankees will get to pay setup man rates for him. If, in the wake of Mariano Rivera's retirement, Robertson takes the Yankees' closer job in 2014 and performs reasonably well, he'll stand to make much more money after the season, when he becomes a free agent. But signing him now could be tricky, Axisa notes, since it will also be clear to Robertson what he stands to gain by closing for a year and then hitting the free agent market. Axisa proposes a three-year, $21MM deal. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • The Dodgers' pursuit of pitcher Masahiro Tanaka appears to be "the most obvious move since Brad Pitt sidled up to Angelina Jolie," writes Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. Dilbeck cites the Dodgers' signings of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Yasiel Puig and Alexander Guerrero as evidence that the team will use its considerable financial heft to pursue the biggest-name international free agents. "We've scouted him a lot, we're very much aware of him," says GM Ned Colletti. "We saw him as recently as two days ago."
  • Pitchers Tim Berry and Chris Jones and catchers Caleb Joseph and Michael Ohlman are all candidates to be added to the Orioles' 40-man roster this offseason, MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski writes. Jones, who spent most of the 2013 season pitching in relief at Triple-A Norfolk, is eligible for minor-league free agency, but Baltimore would like to keep him.

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Dodgers are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Kershaw easily has the largest projected salary of the 200+ arbitration eligible players.  Furthermore, his projection tops the largest arbitration reward in MLB history, Prince Fielder's $15.5MM in 2011.  Cole Hamels set the record for a pitcher with $15MM in 2012.  We had to invoke the Kimbrel Rule in limiting Kershaw's raise to $6.9MM.  

There seems to be a general feeling that Kershaw has little chance of reaching the open market, because the Dodgers have the money and intent to sign their ace long-term within the next 12 months (and preferably before the 2014 season begins).  The largest contract ever given to a pitcher remains the seven-year, $161MM deal C.C. Sabathia signed with the Yankees nearly five years ago.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported progress in June between the Dodgers and Kershaw on a seven-year deal worth more than $180MM, with other proposals under discussion such as $250MM over 10 years and $300MM over 12 years.  In August, Rosenthal reported that the Dodgers and Kershaw were close to a seven-year, $210MM deal that would have included a player opt-out clause after five years, from which the Dodgers backed off.  This month, ESPN's Buster Olney wrote about a $300MM lifetime contract the Dodgers had offered earlier in the season, perhaps the same one to which Rosenthal referred in June.  Players must file for arbitration on January 14th next year, with figures to be exchanged on the 17th, but I imagine the Dodgers and Kershaw will be willing to talk about a long-term deal up until Opening Day.

Closer Kenley Jansen posted another fine season, though perhaps his first 30-save campaign will come in 2014 assuming he owns the job from the start of the season.  There is no extension model for three-plus closers, so the Dodgers and Jansen would have to forge new territory to get a deal done.

Ellis' production declined from 2012, to .238/.318/.364 in 448 plate appearances.  The team could consider trading Ellis to open up a pursuit of Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  Butera, a backup type acquired for depth at the trade deadline, will likely be non-tendered.

The Dodgers picked up Baxter from the Mets on a waiver claim this month, suggesting they'll consider tendering him a contract.  He'll make something around the league minimum, so it's really about how they want to use the roster spot.  Elbert, a 28-year-old lefty reliever, had Tommy John surgery in June and is a non-tender candidate.  Belisario was not particularly good this year, with ERAs around 8.00 in June and September.  He did have a 3.97 ERA overall and the Dodgers liked him enough to use him in the playoffs, so he's probably safe.

Assuming the Dodgers tender contracts to Kershaw, Jansen, Ellis, Belisario, and Baxter, they're looking at an estimated $29MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers' climbed from the bottom of the NL West all the way to the top thanks to a 42-8 midseason tear.  After reaching the NLCS, L.A. hopes to take the next step in 2014.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles (service time in parentheses)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Jerry Hairston, J.P. Howell, Carlos Marmol, Ricky Nolasco, Nick Punto, Skip Schumaker, Juan Uribe, Edinson Volquez, Brian Wilson, Michael Young

The Dodgers got their offseason started in a big way last Tuesday when they signed Cuban second baseman Alexander Guerrero to a four-year, $28MM contract that could reach $32MM via incentives.  The Dodgers were supposed to be the Yankees' biggest foe in their bid to re-sign Robinson Cano, but the deal seemingly takes them out of the running.  It's worth noting, however, that landing Cano is just improbable at this stage, not impossible.  In theory, the Dodgers could move Hanley Ramirez – who could see a new deal with the club this winter – to third base and play Guerrero at shortstop, but Guerrero's defensive skillset is better suited for the other side of the bag.  However, it has been rumored for the last few months that L.A. wasn't going to make a serious play for Cano and Magic Johnson pretty much confirmed that line of thinking earlier this month.  Besides, the Dodgers figure to have some pretty serious expenses ahead of them.

The Dodgers hope to lock up Clayton Kershaw for the foreseeable future and at some point during the season they went to their star left-hander with a $300MM offer.  The 25-year-old backed out of the talks because he apparently had reservations about the length of the deal (it was said to be a "lifetime" contract) and didn't want to have an unnecessary distraction during the year.  Regardless, the two sides will meet at the negotiating table this winter and whether or not the deal breaks the $300MM barrier, it is all but guaranteed to be the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, topping CC Sabathia's $161MM pact signed in 2008.

More immediately, the Dodgers have to figure out what to do about their managerial situation.  Don Mattingly's contract option for 2014 has vested, but the Dodgers seem to be waffling on whether they want him back and the skipper says he'll honor the deal, but he wants a multi-year pact to avoid lame duck status.  The coaching staff is now more or less set, meaning that the Dodgers are probably either looking to retain the former Yankees great or go with someone in-house.  Third-base coach Tim Wallach is said to be a strong candidate if there is a change in the dugout.

Los Angeles has a number of free agents this season and they'll probably have at least a few holes to fill.  Both second baseman Mark Ellis ($5.75MM option, $1MM buyout) and third baseman Juan Uribe can hit the open market and while Guerrero's arrival can help fill one position or the other, he can't do both.  Odds are, Guerrero will be slotted in at second base, displacing Ellis from the starting lineup, but the Dodgers could welcome the 36-year-old back as a reserve.  Uribe turned over a new leaf in 2013 (.278/.331/.438 with 12 homers) and gave the Dodgers a solid everyday play in the hot corner.  Given the lack viable third base options available on the open market, it would be wise to re-sign the veteran.  The trade market for third baseman is headlined by Chase Headley, but the Dodgers will be hard-pressed to pry him away from one of their divisional rivals.  Thinking outside of the box, they could call up the Brewers and see if they can work out a deal for Aramis Ramirez in which Milwaukee eats a good portion of his $20MM salary.  If they want to play musical chairs with their infield by putting Ramirez at third, they can go out and get a shortstop instead.  Stephen Drew will be a free agent and Jhonny Peralta is available and unlikely to return in Detroit.

The Dodgers will also have some housekeeping to do when it comes to their infield depth.  Michael Young, Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto, and Skip Schumaker are all eligible for free agency.  Young could conceivably be their third base answer if Uribe isn't retained, but they'd probably prefer someone who can do more defensively.  Punto would offer that defensive acumen, but he's lacking at the plate.

The Dodgers' rotation is quite strong at the top with Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but there are some question marks beyond that.  Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett could fill the No. 4 and 5 spots, but they'll both be recovering from surgeries.  Re-signing free agent Ricky Nolasco would be a great way to shore up the back end of the starting five and the Dodgers would almost certainly welcome him back if they knew they could have the pitcher they saw from July through early September.  The wheels came off a little bit in his final few starts of the year, but those rough outings only bumped his ERA to 3.52 with 7.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 15 starts and one relief appearance for L.A.  In September, when Nolasco had a 2.07 ERA in 74 innings for the Dodgers, Tim Dierkes estimated that he could see a three-year, $36MM contract.  Talking to Dierkes now, he's considering upgrading that to a four-year, $52MM deal.  If the Guggenheim group is still willing to spend big, they can replace Nolasco with the likes of Ervin Santana or Japanese standout Masahiro Tanaka, whom they're said to be high on.  Both players will cost them a pretty penny, but they'll have some breathing room with Ted Lilly and Chris Capuano coming off the books.  Who knows, they could even be players for Rays ace David Price if they want to make an enormous splash.

A.J. Ellis seems likely to be back behind the plate as the Dodgers' starting catcher, but it's not a sure thing after he had some hiccups in the postseason.  There are talented backstops to be had on the open market like Brian McCann and Jarrod Saltalamacchia and both guys can bring a level of offensive firepower that Ellis does not.  Of course, they'll both require quite a bit of coin at a time where catching around baseball is rather thin.  Tim believes McCann is in line for a five-year, $80MM deal while Saltalamacchia should see something in the range of $36MM over four years.  If the Dodgers want to be a little more fiscally responsible (hey, why are you laughing?) they'll find less expensive veteran options like A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz.

Much of the Dodgers bullpen will return in 2014, but two key members – Brian Wilson and J.P. Howell – might not.  Wilson could very well take his talents and his beard elsewhere after pitching extremely well (0.66 ERA with 13 strikeouts and four walks over 13.2 innings) in his brief time with the Dodgers.  Howell was also sharp (2.03 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 67 appearances and figures to be one of the most sought-after left-handers this winter.  If one or both go, they can look into setup men like Jesse Crain and LaTroy Hawkins.  

That pretty much covers the Dodgers' holes, but they have quite an enviable talent surplus in the outfield with Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and Carl Crawford.  The Dodgers could plug their other holes by moving one of the four.  It goes without saying that Puig is staying put.  Crawford is probably staying put too, seeing as how he's owed a small fortune between now and 2017.  One would probably think that Ethier is more likely to be moved than Kemp, but from the outside it looks like either one could be moved depending on how the market plays out.  Ethier has been maddeningly inconsistent but Kemp should bring in a greater return, injury concerns and all.  There is an option C, of course: keeping all four.  The Dodgers know that they can't bank on the health of Crawford or Kemp, so having four high-level outfielders would be a wonderful luxury to have.

After piecing together a payroll big enough to make a Jerry Bruckheimer film blush, the Dodgers are eager to put it all together in 2014.  With some patching up, they can carry their second half surge into a strong wire-to-wire effort next season.

NL Notes: Beltran, La Russa, Rockies

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Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis offers his thoughts on this year's World Series contenders in a special piece for the Los Angeles Times. In the article, Ellis breaks down the Dodgers' loss to the Cardinals in the NL Championship Series, as well as the approaches of the St. Louis and Boston offenses. More Saturday night National League links:

  • Congratulations to the Cardinals' Carlos Beltran, who was presented with the Roberto Clemente Award earlier this evening for his contributions on and off the field. As Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes, the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, the high school that the outfielder established in Puerto Rico, has graduated its first class of students.
  • Many of the players that Tony La Russa led to a World Series victory in 2011 as manager of the Cardinals are no longer with the team, but La Russa says that the organizational culture remains unchanged. The team is â€œset up real well for the next three to four years," he comments in an article by Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. La Russa also offers praise for current Cardinals Manager Mike Matheny and his thoughts on the role of the manager in today's game.
  • Sources tell Troy Renck of The Denver Post that the Rockies bid as much as $63MM for Jose Dariel Abreu, who eventually signed with the White Sox for $68MM over six years. Renck says the revelation that the Rockies are willing to go as high as $10MM annually for a player is an "intriguing development" and notes that the club is expected to sift through possibilities in the outfield and at first base. The Rockies also appear to ready to listen to offers for Dexter Fowler, Renck writes.

 

Tigers Notes: Wallach, Ellsbury, Payroll, Coaches

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Here's the latest news from Motown…

  • The Tigers interviewed Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach for their vacant manager's job today, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter link).  ESPN's Jonah Keri tweeted earlier tonight that "talks [were] escalating" between Wallach and the club, and Wallach himself confirmed the interview in a text message to Mlive.com's Chris Iott.  "I thought it went well," Wallach said in the text. "It's a very good ballclub and I know how Dave [Dombrowski] works. He was my general manager in Montreal."
  • Earlier this week in an article for Grantland, Keri opined that the Tigers could address their baserunning and defensive problems by signing Jacoby Ellsbury.  Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe also noted Ellsbury as a fit for Detroit last weekend, and the Tigers have a good relationship with Scott Boras, Ellsbury's agent.
  • The Tigers have already spent so much on payroll in recent years that Tony Paul of the Detroit News wonders if the team has reached the limits of its budget and may have to make lower-priced additions this offseason.
  • Hitting coach Lloyd McClendon is the only other candidate to interview for the job thus far, and John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press wonders if third base coach Tom Brookens or bullpen coach Mike Rojas will also receive interviews or if the Tigers will limit internal candidates to prevent any issues if one coach beats another out for the job.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Belisle, Crain, Giants

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The MLBTR staff extends our condolences to the friends and family of NBA Hall-of-Fame player and coach Bill Sharman, who passed away today at age 87.  Sharman is best known for his legendary basketball career but he also played in the Dodgers' minor system from 1950-55, doing well enough to earn a late-season callup in 1951.  Sharman was a so-called "phantom ballplayer" (a player who spends time on a Major League roster but didn't actually appear in a game) yet his status afforded him a unique spot in baseball history.  The entire Dodgers bench was ejected for arguing a call on September 27, 1951, thus making Sharman the only player to ever be ejected from a Major League game without appearing in one.

Here are some items from around the NL West, starting with Sharman's old team…

  • J.P. Howell and Nick Punto are the only two of the Dodgers' free agents who Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles predicts will be back with the team next season.  Saxon also predicts the Dodgers will decline Mark Ellis' $5.75MM club option and their side of Chris Capuano's $8MM mutual option.
  • Letting that mostly veteran free agent group go is one of Saxon's five ways the Dodgers can reach their stated goal of getting younger in 2014.  Other methods include trading Andre Ethier and acquiring David Price and Elvis Andrus.
  • The Rockies will explore signing Jesse Crain if he's healthy and will look to re-sign Matt Belisle to a longer-term deal, Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes.  Colorado has a $4.25MM option on Belisle for 2014 but Renck says the team will look to lower Belisle's base salary for next season in as part of a new contract.
  • Renck also outlines several other Rockies offseason needs and notes that while they couldn't manage to sign Cuban first baseman Jose Dariel Abreu, the attempt at least showed that the club is trying and is willing to spend this winter.
  • Also from Renck (via Twitter), he is "fascinated" by the Nationals' reported hiring of Matt Williams and notes that the Rockies came close to hiring Williams as manager last year before going with Walt Weiss.
  • Even before their offseason moves have really begun, the Rockies and Giants are two of three teams projected by ESPN's Jared Cross (Insider subscription required) to have the best chance of improving by at least 20 wins in 2014.  Cross also suggests a pair of free agents who could help the two clubs.
  • A number of Padres topics are explored by Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune during a live chat with readers, including whether the Angels' Mark Trumbo would be a realistic trade option for the Friars as they look to add power to their lineup.
  • USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweets that Dave Duncan is a "perfect fit" as the Diamondbacks' pitching coach and that we should "keep an eye on" him as a candidate for the job.  Duncan took a leave of absence from the Cardinals in 2012 and recently said that he isn't interested in serving as a pitching coach again.
  • In other NL West news from earlier today, the Giants officially announced Tim Lincecum's new contract….Lincecum's feelings about re-signing are included as part of a collection of Giants notes….the Padres designated southpaws Colt Hynes and Tommy Layne for assignment….MLBTR's Steve Adams wrote a Free Agent Profile of Dodgers reliever Brian Wilson.

Free Agent Profile: Brian Wilson

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Brian Wilson didn't want to sign with a team until he felt that he was competely recovered from Tommy John surgery, and his late-season numbers with the Dodgers show he was just that. Wilson looked better than ever after signing with the Dodgers for just $1MM on July 30, serving as a lights-out member of the team's bullpen down the stretch and into the NLCS. His strong showing should position him for a nice free agent deal.

Strengths/Pros

Small sample or not, Wilson was flat-out dominant in 2013. Between the regular season and the postseason, The Beard/Agent Double-Zero allowed one run on 12 hits and six walks with 21 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings.  Wilson-Brian

Pitchers don't typically get their velocity back immediately following Tommy John, and Wilson's heat certainly wasn't at its peak upon his return. The good news, however, is that Wilson is an absolute flamethrower, meaning that "sub-par" velocity for him translates to a 93.2 mph average heater. That mark ranks him 11th among potential free agent right-handers with at least 10 innings pitched. Two of those arms — Matt Lindstrom and Jose Veras — could see their club options exercised. Others such as Joba Chamberlain and Carlos Marmol are coming off dreadful seasons. And teams will probably be more focused on Jesse Crain's shoulder than his 94.5 mph fastball.

Wilson has averaged at least 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings in each season dating back to 2008, and his ground-ball rate has never dipped below the league average in a full season.

Looking at his splits, Wilson has actually been better against lefties in his career, and it's tough to say that he's benefited from all of his innings in the spacious AT&T Park when his career 2.98 ERA on the road trumps his 3.21 home mark.

For teams that still place a heavy emphasis on "proven" closers, Wilson fits the bill. The Beard has registered 171 career saves — a mark that only Joe Nathan, Kevin Gregg and Fernando Rodney can top among potential free agents. Gregg melted down in the season's second half, and Rodney has Wilson bested by exactly one save despite being five years older.

Wilson won't come attached to a draft pick, as it's highly unlikely that the Dodgers would tender him a $14.1MM qualifying offer.

Weaknesses/Cons

I've already referenced it, but teams are evaluating Wilson on a sample size of just 19 2/3 innings. It's impossible to tell how his surgically repaired arm will hold up over a full season's workload. He appeared in back-to-back games five times but never pitched three consecutive days for the Dodgers. If he's looking for a ninth-inning gig, the ability to pitch three in a row will be critical.

Wilson's command was solid in 2013, but he's averaged 3.9 walks per nine innings in his career and was at a whopping 5.1 BB/9 in his last full season (2011). Even prior to his Tommy John surgery, his fastball velocity had dropped, as he was at 94.3 mph in that same command-challenged 2011 campaign — down from 95.9 mph in 2010 and 96.6 mph in 2009.

The 2011 struggles with his command and velocity could be due to the beginning of his elbow issues — he did spend a month on the shelf with an elbow strain that year. However, we haven't seen a full season's work out of him since, so stastically speaking, there's not much evidence to suggest that the elbow was the lone culprit.

Personal

Much has been made of Wilson's eccentric personality, which is seen as a positive by most of his teammates. Whether touting his epic beard or playing dominos with Juan Uribe and his other teammates, Wilson keeps the clubhouse light-hearted and fun. Wilson is as passionate about being a good teammate as he is a good pitcher. He enjoys mentoring younger pitchers and is a known workout fiend. During games, Wilson will often track the action in a scorebook from the bullpen. In high school, Wilson lost his father, an Air Force veteran, to cancer. Brian honors his father's memory with charitable contributions toward the Air Force Academy. 

Market

Wilson has the misfortune of entering free agency alongside a very strong group of relievers that includes Nathan, Rodney, Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit. While he's the youngest of the bunch, Wilson also comes with the most uncertainty, as he's yet to pitch a full season since recovering from his second Tommy John surgery.

With so much competition, Wilson (and his peers) may struggle to find a ninth inning job on a two-year deal. He'd open his options considerably by showing a willingness to pitch on a one-year deal. If that were the case, his agents might be able to convince a team with a closer-in-waiting to delay the less-experienced arm's promotion to the ninth inning for a year. Others that have unspectacular incumbents, such as the Angels and Ernesto Frieri, may be willing to demote their current option to the eighth inning if Wilson can be attained.

If his goal is to sign a multiyear pact, Wilson and agents Dan Lozano and Matt Hannaford of the MVP Sports Group would be wise to pounce early in the offseason rather than shop around for the best fit. Doing so would maximize their chances at multiple years. Given the large amount of free agent closer options, it's better to act quickly than be left standing in January and taking a one-year deal.

Expected Contract

Wilson will, to an extent, control his own fate this offseason. A team isn't likely to guarantee three years based on just 19 2/3 innings of work, no matter how impressive they were. Should he decide he wants a two-year contract, Wilson could find a deal similar to Joe Nathan's two-year, $14.75MM contract with the Rangers if he signs early in the winter (as Nathan himself did in Nov. 2011).

In my mind, the better play for Wilson, Lozano and Hannaford is to maximize his earnings on a one-year contract and enter the open market next season. A look at MLBTR's list of 2015 free agents shows that Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, Jason Motte, Chris Perez, J.J. Putz and Sergio Romo are the best surefire closers set to hit the market. Grilli and Putz will be 38. Johnson and Perez are current non-tender candidates based on their salaries. Motte is an unknown coming off 2013 Tommy John surgery. Rafael Soriano could be on the market, or his option could vest if he finishes 62 games next season. If Huston Street pitches well, his $7MM option will be exercised. If not, he won't be competition for Wilson anyway.

Wilson's relative youth gives him the luxury of taking a one-year contract and then positioning himself as the next offseason's top two closers, ironically alongside his Giants successor, Romo. My expectation is that Wilson will sign the same one-year, $8.5MM contract inked by Ryan Madson two years ago (perhaps with some additional incentives), then hit the market and look to cash in big in the 2014-15 offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Giants, Mattingly, Lincecum

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Since Dodgers ownership clearly doesn't trust manager Don Mattingly, they should either fire him or trade him to one of the four clubs with managerial vacancies, opines Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. L.A. may or may not find a taker for Mattingly. Even though he has fans in the Nats front office, Rosenthal writes that the general perception is that he's not the best in-game manager.Here's the latest from the NL West..

  • Mattingly intends to honor the final year of his contract as manager with the Dodgers, his agent told Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com.  Furthermore, there is renewed hope on both sides that he will continue on beyond 2012, according to sources with knowledge of the situation.  Agent Ray Schulte said he expects to meet with team president Stan Kasten in the next "few days."
  • Mattingly still hasn't heard from Kasten since the season ended and is waiting to meet with him, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.  Meanwhile, the skipper is still looking for a multi-year deal (link).
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post spoke with Giants assistant GM Bobby Evans about the club's two-year, $35MM extension for Tim Lincecum.  Evans broke down his reasons for giving The Freak such a hefty deal and pointed out that if the club retained him with the qualifying offer both this year and next year, the total amount would have been roughly $29MM, not far off from what they gave him.  
  • Ray Ratto of CSNBayArea.com wonders if Lincecum's lucrative new deal is a baseball or a marketing decision.  In all likelihood, it was a little from column A and a little from column B as the Giants legitimately needed to fortify the back-end of their rotation this winter.
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