Odds and Ends: Kelly Johnson, Nathan, Crede
Time for some early Monday odds and ends.
- Remember how White Sox GM Ron Schueler embarrassed Cubs GM Ed Lynch in 1998 by acquiring Jon Garland for Matt Karchner? Rany Jazayerli sees a parallel to that heist with the Royals’ acquisition of Daniel Cortes as part of the July ’06 Mike MacDougal trade.
- Mike Berardino’s blog continues to entertain; this time with a Dan Miceli story. Ah, knife fights with siblings. Who among us can say they haven’t had one or two?
- Buster Olney learned from Braves GM Frank Wren that Kelly Johnson has been the team’s most asked-for player in trade talks this winter.
- The look on Kyle Kendrick‘s face is priceless.
- Extension talks with the Twins and Joe Nathan have gone dormant. Nathan still thinks the gap can be bridged but wants it done before the season begins.
- Andy Marte and Shin-Soo Choo are both out of options; when Choo comes back from elbow surgery a month into the season one of them could be traded.
- Henry Schulman says the White Sox may accept prospects from the Giants for Joe Crede.
- Derek Lowe is entering his walk year, and he hasn’t had any extension talks with the Dodgers yet.
Marlins Reach Stadium Agreement
Great news for Marlins fans – an agreement has been reached to build a new stadium for the team for $515MM. It still needs to be approved by county and city commissioners on Thursday though.
The Marlins don’t have any players earning even $3MM on their roster. Baseball Prospectus sees them finishing fourth in the NL East this year with a 76-86 record. BP thinks the Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, Pirates, and Giants will all be worse than that.
Dallas McPherson Signs With Marlins
Ah, now some of the free agents are moving off the shelves. The Marlins signed Dallas McPherson to a one-year deal worth $425K. Barely above the minimum; he must’ve liked the opportunity.
He’ll join Jose Castillo and Jorge Cantu in a battle royale to replace Miguel Cabrera at third base. Tough shoes to fill, eh? Who knows, maybe that 30 HR power is still in McPherson’s bat somewhere.
With the McPherson and Ensberg signings today, Corey Koskie is pretty much the only remaining available free agent third baseman.
Luis Gonzalez Signs With Marlins
UPDATE, 1-31-08 at 12:26pm: Rosenthal confirms the signing. He believes it to be for $2MM guaranteed plus another $1MM in incentives. Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel doesn’t understand the signing.
FROM 1-31-08 at 10:41am:
According to azfamily.com, outfielder Luis Gonzalez has signed with the Marlins. It was said on Sunday that Gonzalez balked at a $2MM offer from the team.
I’m not sure how this is going to work – the Marlins’ outfield seemed set at Willingham, Maybin, and Hermida. Maybe Gonzalez can spell Willingham and Jacobs.
Wilkerson Signs With Mariners?
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times is being told that "the Mariners already have a one-year deal with free-agent Brad Wilkerson in their back pocket for the moment a Bedard trade is finalized." Wilkerson will pass on a one-year, $2MM plus incentives offer to be a Red Sox backup. This all gels with MLBTR’s report from January 24th.
ESPN’s Jayson Stark mentioned that Luis Gonzalez could be another option for the Ms. Gonzalez recently scoffed at a $2MM Marlins offer. Gonzo made $7.35MM in ’07.
Ryan Howard and Arbitration Comparables
ESPN’s Keith Law has some good info up on his personal blog. I have always wondered about this stuff. In the post, Law discusses how little sense it makes for the Phillies to pay Ryan Howard more than his service time calls for. But also in the comments Law explains which players Howard’s agent can compare him to for an arbitration hearing.
Law says:
For comparison purposes, a player may be compared to players in the same “service class” in the current year or in prior years, and third- and fourth-time eligibles may be compared to free agents who have signed in the current year or in prior years. Single-year salaries are more powerful comparisons than multi-year deals, since the individual salaries within a multi-year deal may be skewed due to bonuses, backloading, or other factors.
Law notes that Howard’s comp could be Miguel Cabrera, who made $7.4MM last year. Howard logically deserves more than that based on a stat comparison, making the Phillies’ $7MM submission seem low.
Odds and Ends: Gregg, Howard, Shingo, Valentin, Ankiel
Some loose ends and links from today…
- Closer Kevin Gregg is the highest-paid Marlin at $2.5MM. Quick! Trade him!
- Ryan Howard and the Phillies submitted salary figures: Howard wants $10MM, the Phillies want to pay him $7MM. If they can’t meet in the middle then an independent arbitrator will pick one of the two amounts next month. MLB.com has a handy table showing all the figures submitted today by players and teams.
- Fun fact, the Cubs signed Shingo Takatsu. He’s 39 now; he saved 19 games for the ’04 White Sox. He had a 6.17 ERA in 23 innings in Japan last year though. Mr. Zero is the all-time saves leader in Japan.
- Jose Valentin‘s minor league deal was announced today. The free agent market is pretty much barren of middle infielders now.
- The Cardinals and Rick Ankiel agreed on $900K plus another $100K in incentives for ’08. He was an oddball case without comparables given his career progression.
- The Royals appear to be done this offseason.
Odds and Ends: Hendrickson, Soria, Sherrill
Here’s today’s random collection of links.
- The Marlins signed Mark Hendrickson as the veteran leadership guy for ’08, at a cost of $1.5MM. He was knocked around in 15 starts for the Dodgers in ’07 but was solid in the pen. The Marlins will put him in the rotation, perhaps to tutor fellow southpaws Andrew Miller and Scott Olsen.
- Craig Brown would like to see the Royals use Joakim Soria as a starter.
- There is a theory that the Mariners’ signing of Arthur Rhodes will allow them to trade George Sherrill in an Erik Bedard deal. Seems a half-baked theory, wherever it originated. I don’t think Sherrill is holding this deal up.
- An argument for the Nate Robertson extension from Danny Knobler, and one against from J.C. Bradbury. Also, Peter Abraham thinks Chien Ming-Wang‘s agent will use Robertson as a comparable.
- The White Sox are still considering Bartolo Colon, according to ESPN Radio’s Bruce Levine.
- Pat Burrell would love to re-sign with the Phillies after this season. Pat, by the way, doesn’t have a computer and owes his second half success to "more hits."
- Phil Hughes has a computer, and even a new blog. Not much going on over there yet though.
Mailbag: Roberts, Teixeira, Johan, Nathan, And More
Time for this week’s mailbag. You can hit it up at mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com to get in your question for next week.
Do you see the Twins signing a big name middle of the order bopper or trading for one before the opening of the new stadium in 2010? – Jordan
Funny you ask this. I recently asked LEN3 whether the Twins would have a $100MM payroll for the 2010 season, and he said, "I don’t see it." So I’ll go with his wisdom and say business as usual for the Twins despite the stadium.
Why are the White Sox not aggressively pursuing any pitching? Do they realistically think that Gavin Floyd and John Danks can hold down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation on a contender? I believe we need to fill the holes with some veteran pitching such as Livan Hernandez who can eat up innings and possibly add Corey Patterson at center field. – Joel
I was just discussing this with a former coworker of mine. I can’t see the White Sox sneaking into a Wild Card berth with this rotation, but what’s the alternative? I don’t like the Livan idea. I would consider signing a couple of swingmen/injury risk types such as Brett Tomko or Bartolo Colon if he looks decent. Just a few low risk/OK reward guys with good stuff who could pay off. There’s no place for Patterson in the current Chicago outfield, I wouldn’t do that.
Were the Cubs holding off on the Brian Roberts trade until they got Lieber? – Bryant
The Cubs/Roberts thing still seems possible, and trading both Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher is slightly easier to stomach with Lieber on board. If I were Jim Hendry I would let the whole Roberts idea go though.
What is the likelihood of the Braves signing Mark Teixeira long-term? – Matthew
I’ll put it at a 10% chance. This is a $100MM+ contract and he’s represented by Scott Boras. He’ll probably want to test the open market, and there could be some ridiculous bids.
When, just when will this Santana situation be over?! It’s just killing me! – Dan
We all feel your pain Dan. Most folks seem sick of reading similar rehashed rumors about this. I would be surprised if we don’t know Santana’s fate one month from now. Of course if his fate is to start the season with the Twins, then the rumors will restart in June.
Are there any trade rumors involving Joe Nathan? – Justin
C’mon Justin, you know I’d never hold out rumors on you. If Bill Smith is shopping Nathan around or getting inquiries, all parties are running very tight ships. Desperation for closers seems to kick in midseason, when certain bullpens are established as clearly crappy. So guys like Nathan and Huston Street may be more likely to be moved in June or July.
Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of ’05? – Oliver
The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official. However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post. The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it. It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers’ offer. Those reporters altered history.
What do you see the Milwaukee Brewers doing with their pitching surplus? Do you see them maybe using some of their excess pitchers like Capuano and Bush to acquire a young catcher with some upside? – Tyler
We’ve seen it a million times – these winter pitching surpluses turn into deficits by May. There is certainly a case to be made for the Brewers to just stand pat, though all those arms would be tough to squeeze in given the bullpen acquisitions. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy expects some of the surplus to be traded before Spring Training. I like the catcher idea – Jeff Clement (Mariners), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), or Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird (Rangers) seem like possible matches.
Do the Yankees sign Bobby Abreu after the 2008 season? – Andrew
Andrew notes that the Yanks have some money coming off the books after the ’08 season. The right field alternatives are weak, so Abreu could make sense. If he’d take a two or three-year extension midseason I could see Cashman doing it.
Did you ever sell your place in Lombard? – Steve
Thankfully I did. I tried selling by owner for a month and barely got any bites. Then I hired an agent and she sold it in three days.
What Might’ve Been: Beckett And Lowell For Blalock And Danks
At the suggestion of several readers, I’m starting up a new feature here at MLBTR called What Might’ve Been. Basically we’ll look back at rumors and near-deals that did not end up happening, and consider how things would be if they had occurred.
Today’s near-rumor is from November 19th, 2005. That day, the Marlins nearly traded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Danks.
Let’s start with the Fish. They would never have received Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and others from Boston. Instead they would’ve gotten Blalock in ’06 and Blalock plus Danks in ’07. Some rough math using Baseball Prospectus’ WARP stat leads us to believe the Marlins would’ve had 11 fewer wins in ’06 and four fewer in ’07 if they made the Texas deal. Take those 11 wins in ’06 and spread them around the NL, maybe the Astros or even Reds win the Central instead of the Cards. Another consequence: Blalock at third might’ve meant Miguel Cabrera remained in left field. Maybe then Josh Willingham ends up catching, doesn’t get his opportunity, or gets traded.
Moving on to the Rangers. Swapping Blalock for Beckett and Lowell might’ve meant an extra eight wins in ’06 (again, rough math for the sake of the exercise). Eight more wins still probably doesn’t put the ’06 Rangers in the playoffs. Eleven marginal wins in ’07 with Beckett fronting their rotation and Lowell at third still wouldn’t have meant a playoff berth, even with an additional boost for not trading Mark Teixeira. In real life, Beckett signed a three-year extension in July of ’06. Maybe he wouldn’t have signed or been offered this by Jon Daniels. Under that scenario Beckett would’ve been a free agent this winter, snagging a massive 5-7 year deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or some other club. And would the Red Sox have been more active on Alex Rodriguez this winter if they’d never had Lowell? Moreso if they were not the ’07 World Champs?
Speaking of the Red Sox: say they just hung on to Ramirez and Sanchez, for simplicity’s sake. The Sox still would’ve traded Edgar Renteria and signed Alex Gonzalez before the ’06 season, but maybe Ramirez beats him out for the shortstop job. Best case scenario, Ramirez over Gonzalez in ’06 nets the Sox six wins. That’s at least negated by using Sanchez instead of Beckett and whoever instead of Lowell. The Sox still would’ve missed the playoffs in ’06 – even if they’d signed Roger Clemens or A.J. Burnett after failing to acquire Beckett.
The Beckett-less ’07 Red Sox would’ve probably reached the playoffs, given the huge boost in having Hanley instead of Julio Lugo. The Lugo signing never would’ve happened; maybe he ends up with the Cubs or Mets, who made offers in real life. Instead, the Red Sox might’ve tried to lure Aramis Ramirez or settled for Mark DeRosa as their ’07 third baseman. Do the Red Sox make it past the Indians in the ALCS without Beckett? Perhaps, if they had signed Burnett in the 2005-06 offseason and a decent third baseman in 2006-07.
By the way, the White Sox would not have been able to get Danks from the Marlins for Brandon McCarthy. Who knows what Kenny Williams does with McCarthy in this alternate reality.
I’m dizzy. Thoughts on the new feature, and any corrections on my speculation? Any juicy consequences I missed?